Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Matthew Schmidt: New Haven University’s Director of International Affairs and National Security Expert on the conflict in the Middle East

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Matthew Schmidt: New Haven University’s Director of International Affairs and National Security Expert on the conflict in the Middle East · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Iran targeting Saudi oil refineries. Overnight tank is being hit
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: trying to enter the strait of him was Lebanon the
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: latest battleground His bulla israeled a trading strikes. Here's Pete
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Higgs Seth.
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: If you kill Americans, if you threaten Americans anywhere on Earth,
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: we will hunt you down without apology and without hesitation,
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: and we will kill you.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: So what's the end? Where does it end? Is the question?
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Matthew Schmidt, Director of International Affairs, national security expert, and
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: you have a university with US live this morning. Matthew,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: welcome to the program.
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: Hi Ryan, thanks I here.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I know that you have your brief across not only
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: the leadership in Iran but also the weapons. So when
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: does the scene, how does this end? In your view, Matthew, you.
• 0:47
  Speaker 3: Have to think of Iran right now as sort of
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: an elite stage autocracy that's coming apart, and you end
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: up with sort of three basic groups. You've got the
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: security services, the upper ranks were devastated in the first
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: wave of the attack, the IRGC, the Ila Kameni. His
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: son is connected to the IRGC and stands as a
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: possible successor, although his own father said, and Shia Islam
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: sort of pushes against the idea of hereditary succession, so
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: there's there's a bit of a problem there. On the
• 1:26
  Speaker 3: other side, you have the founder's grandson, Hassan Komeni, who
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: positions himself sort of as a moderate, who is someone
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: that may be able to come in and say, look,
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: we can salvage the Islamic Republic as an Islamic republic.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: It looks like we've just completely lost Matthew, which is
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: a real shame because he has fantastic and fascinating things
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: to say. He does have numbers, so the war likely
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: to shift to Iran's drone capabilities next because we've talked
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: about boots on the ground. His boots on the ground
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: actually is relevant these days. Look at what's happening in Ukraine.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: He says, the stockpile of drones there could be as
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: high as eighty thousand, and those drones are good. He's
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: bent with us, now, Matthew, I'll let you finish.
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think I was on a harmony of
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: his grandson, So he's a monitor candidate that could sort
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: of bridge things. And then you have the question of
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: some sort of democratic revolution, right, and the name that
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: we all know in the West is RAZAPALAVII, the son
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: of the Late Shaw, and he's got a lot of support,
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: but he also has a lot of detractors inside Iran
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: and a lot of people who are simply saying, you
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: haven't lived here, you don't know the society. And there
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: are different groups. There's a student group, there's labor groups
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: in Iran, but there's no one really emerging as a
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: leader on the ground in Iran. And that's the real question.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: So my money right now is on the IOGC consolidating
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: control for the moment. And the problem with the democratic
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: groups is right now they're just trying to save their
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: kids from the bombs, right pick them up from school,
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: get them too, somewhere safe, and nobody's really out in
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: the street.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Het Matthew will leave it there, appreciate your time this morning.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Sorry about that dodgy line. That's said doctor Matthew Schmidt,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: who's a national security University of New Haven in the
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: United States. What he also points out is the stockpile
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: of drones there, as I said, could be eighty thousand,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: and then you look at the fact that they can
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: quickly and at very low costs produce about four hundred
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: more a day. And then Israel's you know the Iron
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Dome that they've got, Well, the Iron Dome interceptions run
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: it about a million dollars. Your drones run it at
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: about twenty five thousand dollars. So how many intercepts do
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: you do for such cheap toys that have been thrown
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: at your country that can be deadly?
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: For more from early edition with Ryan Bridge.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Listen live to News Talk Said Be from five am weekdays,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio