Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NFL Best Bets Sunday 11/30/25
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: Own seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:08Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:12Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:15Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
- 0:18Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:20Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
- 0:25Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all all in
- 0:27Speaker 1: four I have not had a good season. Man with
- 0:32Speaker 1: wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues.
- 0:37Speaker 1: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my
- 0:41Speaker 1: broins hat Man, I don't know what is going on
- 0:43Speaker 1: with the bruins arch haape? Is that what it is?
- 0:46Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
- 0:50Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
- 0:53Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
- 0:55Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I can
- 0:58Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
- 1:02Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
- 1:06Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
- 1:10Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
- 1:13Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:16Speaker 1: The slump, the slump discontinues, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
- 1:21Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
- 1:25Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
- 1:32Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody sowed back with you? Toad still Sports.
- 1:36Speaker 1: This is Sunday, November thirtieth edition. Thanks for everybody who
- 1:40Speaker 1: hung out for the NFL show last night. For the
- 1:46Speaker 1: I don't even know what to call that show it was.
- 1:49Speaker 1: I'm assuming it was a disaster. I don't remember it. Yeah,
- 1:54Speaker 1: I was in a fury of blind rage. Whatever. I
- 1:59Speaker 1: give two NFL plays. One is in the night game tonight,
- 2:03Speaker 1: which I'll mention that again at the end of the
- 2:05Speaker 1: show here, and then one is tomorrow night again. I
- 2:09Speaker 1: just I would say, keep looking for the key number
- 2:14Speaker 1: on the on the one for the night game here,
- 2:15Speaker 1: the seven. It might show up. I already see seven
- 2:18Speaker 1: at minus one twenty at one book out there, so
- 2:20Speaker 1: I think it might actually happen. Well, you could even
- 2:23Speaker 1: take that if you want to. I don't usually like
- 2:25Speaker 1: to lay the minus one twenty, but it is a
- 2:27Speaker 1: key number, So I mean That's probably the most that
- 2:29Speaker 1: I would lay on it. But if you do see
- 2:31Speaker 1: that at one of the books, you could take that
- 2:33Speaker 1: just to get on the key number. Pinzy. What's up man,
- 2:36Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. I probably drove everybody away last
- 2:40Speaker 1: night because I didn't even I literally did not even
- 2:43Speaker 1: look at the chat. I was just like, I'm gonna
- 2:44Speaker 1: do this. I'm done. Yeah Auburn, man, I mean, seriously, Auburn.
- 2:50Speaker 1: I don't even know if I mentioned it. Last night.
- 2:51Speaker 1: Auburn outgained Alabama by over one hundred yards in the game,
- 2:55Speaker 1: and even after all the rest of that BS happened,
- 2:59Speaker 1: Auburn was driving in Alabama territory at around the thirty
- 3:02Speaker 1: with a chance to tie the game if they got
- 3:04Speaker 1: a touchdown with all their timeouts left, and they fumbled
- 3:07Speaker 1: the ball over. So yeah, Auburn had two turnovers like
- 3:13Speaker 1: both really late in the game. Everything is rigged, dude,
- 3:16Speaker 1: everything is rigged. That should have been a winner for us. Here,
- 3:21Speaker 1: let's talk about college basketball. I mean, I don't have
- 3:23Speaker 1: much to say about college basketball. The Slate kicks off
- 3:28Speaker 1: at noon, where we have this Lafayette Challenge going on
- 3:31Speaker 1: that is being hosted by Lafayette in Pennsylvania. Le Moyne
- 3:35Speaker 1: is playing ball State, which is I don't know how
- 3:38Speaker 1: they do this tournament because ball State has lost both games,
- 3:41Speaker 1: and they put up an extremely ugly thirty seven points
- 3:44Speaker 1: in the last game against the host Lafayette, and they're
- 3:47Speaker 1: facing Lemoyne, who has somehow actually won both games so far,
- 3:51Speaker 1: including beating Lafayette. I mean, none of these teams are good,
- 3:55Speaker 1: but Leamoyne's not good either, So I mean, just my
- 3:58Speaker 1: quick read on that would be problem looking at this line,
- 4:01Speaker 1: to the fact that Lemoyne is only a one and
- 4:03Speaker 1: a half point favorite, even though the line has moved
- 4:05Speaker 1: up maybe two, I would probably look towards taking the
- 4:09Speaker 1: points with ball State. As horrendous as that sounds. I mean,
- 4:12Speaker 1: both of these teams suck, so I don't know, man,
- 4:16Speaker 1: I mean, that's probably the way I would look. Ball
- 4:18Speaker 1: State probably angry about how horrendously they shot in the
- 4:22Speaker 1: last game or whatever it was. I mean, thirty nine
- 4:24Speaker 1: points is totally embarrassing, So that's probably the way that
- 4:27Speaker 1: I would look. We have this Philadelphia thing going on
- 4:30Speaker 1: that's being hosted by who's the host of this again,
- 4:33Speaker 1: penn I think you Penn at the Pulastra. For some reason,
- 4:37Speaker 1: my Massachusetts Merrimack guys are in this. They suck. They're
- 4:42Speaker 1: facing LaSalle here though LASAL coming off a close game
- 4:45Speaker 1: against the host Penn would have been a big win
- 4:48Speaker 1: for LASAL to get that win, even though I think
- 4:50Speaker 1: they were only small underdog in the game. And it's
- 4:52Speaker 1: still a Philadelphia battle, Like, I don't really see them
- 4:55Speaker 1: caring that much about Merrimack. And then Drexel up next
- 4:58Speaker 1: to another Philadelphia area school. LaSalle's up to a three
- 5:02Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. I'd probably take the points
- 5:04Speaker 1: with Merrimack, but I mean, don't listen to me on
- 5:07Speaker 1: these games that I don't have strong opinions on. Merrimack
- 5:09Speaker 1: did get blown out by Astra, who I think is
- 5:11Speaker 1: also in this Philadelphia thing for whatever reason, even though
- 5:14Speaker 1: they're in New York school so whatever. But yeah, Merrimack,
- 5:20Speaker 1: I know, I said I thought they would cover against Penn.
- 5:22Speaker 1: They didn't do it, but it might be a spot
- 5:23Speaker 1: where maybe they put in a good effort for once. Uh.
- 5:28Speaker 1: Saint Jose is playing Princeton and the other UPENSI Philadelphia
- 5:32Speaker 1: area team here. Saint Joe's going to Princeton over the
- 5:35Speaker 1: boarder in Trenton here, which I don't believe that's at
- 5:38Speaker 1: Prince's Princeton's campus, right, I don't think so. I could
- 5:42Speaker 1: be wrong about that. You correct me if I'm wrong.
- 5:44Speaker 1: I forget where in New Jersey Princeton is. I don't
- 5:47Speaker 1: know what this game is, to be honest, unless maybe
- 5:50Speaker 1: that is where Princeton is. I don't know, uh, but Princeton.
- 5:55Speaker 1: They're at three and six on the season. Saint Joe's
- 5:59Speaker 1: is a ring and three, So I mean it almost
- 6:02Speaker 1: looks too obvious to play Saint Joe's. Although they're up
- 6:04Speaker 1: to a four and a half point favorite. They're getting
- 6:06Speaker 1: the money's sixty percent of tickets, ninety two percent of
- 6:08Speaker 1: the cash on them. Don't quite know if I would
- 6:11Speaker 1: agree with that. Although Saint Joe's did just break their
- 6:14Speaker 1: losers riek. They came back from the Pacific Coast after
- 6:17Speaker 1: they did lose to Penn, they went out, they lost
- 6:20Speaker 1: to UNLV. I think Saint Joe's just missed the cover
- 6:23Speaker 1: for us in that game too, when I was really
- 6:25Speaker 1: angry about it. They came back home they beat a
- 6:27Speaker 1: non Division one team to kind of get more like
- 6:30Speaker 1: to regain their momentum, I guess, so they do have
- 6:33Speaker 1: momentum at least coming into this. Princeton I think, did
- 6:36Speaker 1: just come up a game against Vermont, so that was
- 6:39Speaker 1: I don't know, I guess somewhat of a bigger game.
- 6:41Speaker 1: I mean, they just played Temple as well before that,
- 6:44Speaker 1: so some difficult games there. I don't know. I mean
- 6:47Speaker 1: maybe looking at that, I guess maybe I would agree
- 6:49Speaker 1: with the Saint Joe's side, the fact that the Vermont
- 6:52Speaker 1: game was a little bit more difficult for Princeton there
- 6:55Speaker 1: more of an effort. Vermont was the favorite. Don't have
- 6:57Speaker 1: much to say about this though, UNC Asheville is hosting
- 7:01Speaker 1: something in Asheville. Here. They're up against an in state rival,
- 7:05Speaker 1: if you want to call it that. With app State here,
- 7:07Speaker 1: Asheville is actually the better team. Both these teams I
- 7:10Speaker 1: think are pretty bad this year. Asheville up to a
- 7:13Speaker 1: three point favorite. Don't really have a whole lot to
- 7:15Speaker 1: say otherwise about that. I don't even know which one
- 7:18Speaker 1: of these teams considers themselves to be the little brother really,
- 7:20Speaker 1: probably app State, because Asheville at least has done damage
- 7:25Speaker 1: in the Big South Conference for a while. Asheville's coming
- 7:28Speaker 1: up a pretty ugly loss though, as five and a
- 7:31Speaker 1: half way favorites to Tennessee State, so I would probably
- 7:34Speaker 1: lean to the Ashville side. I think they're the better team.
- 7:37Speaker 1: Looks like they probably be in bounce back bounce back
- 7:39Speaker 1: mode here. Probably be in bounce back mode here. Also,
- 7:42Speaker 1: the fact that app State's four and four and Ashville
- 7:44Speaker 1: is two and four probably as people wondering why is
- 7:48Speaker 1: Asheville the favorite. Obviously part of it is that they're
- 7:50Speaker 1: hosting this this is on their home court. But I
- 7:53Speaker 1: think that probably is the way to lean. All right,
- 7:57Speaker 1: let's go to the best bet. I have one bet
- 7:59Speaker 1: here and it is going to be taking the points
- 8:04Speaker 1: with UTSA Texas San Antonio. We're gonna fade South Alabama.
- 8:10Speaker 1: This game is on Texas San Antonio's home floor in
- 8:13Speaker 1: San Antonio. South Alabama. They just took their first loss
- 8:17Speaker 1: of the season. You know, I talk about this when
- 8:19Speaker 1: a team takes their first loss a lot of times
- 8:21Speaker 1: they will effectively lose that game twice and not have
- 8:24Speaker 1: a good game in the next game. Now, not only that,
- 8:27Speaker 1: but South Alabama's had some pretty big games. Man, they
- 8:30Speaker 1: just did the rounds. They just beat in state rival.
- 8:33Speaker 1: If you want to call it that Jacksonville State. But
- 8:35Speaker 1: then their game that they lost and I was just
- 8:37Speaker 1: referring to that was a big game, dude. That was
- 8:39Speaker 1: against UAB on the road, and UAB, I think they
- 8:43Speaker 1: definitely consider UAB to one to be one of the
- 8:45Speaker 1: bigger brothers in the state of Alabama. Against that was
- 8:48Speaker 1: a huge game for them and they had chances to
- 8:52Speaker 1: maybe pull off this upset. They were seven and a
- 8:54Speaker 1: half point underdogs. Was a game that they absolutely got
- 8:57Speaker 1: up for and they were getting blown out in the game.
- 9:00Speaker 1: Around halftime they were down double digits. They came all
- 9:03Speaker 1: the way back and tied the game with two fifty
- 9:05Speaker 1: six left. Didn't go away. The game was still within
- 9:08Speaker 1: one in the final couple minutes of the game, and
- 9:11Speaker 1: then they fell just short. I mean, that is brutal.
- 9:14Speaker 1: That's a brutal result to come off of man as
- 9:17Speaker 1: a pretty big underdog against an in state big brother.
- 9:20Speaker 1: Huge game, meaningful game to you. Now you go on
- 9:22Speaker 1: the road, you gotta go to Texas, which would be
- 9:24Speaker 1: the first time South Alabama's gone to Texas. They've done
- 9:27Speaker 1: okay on the road so far. I mean, they beat
- 9:29Speaker 1: Toledo on the road and jackson Jacksonville State on the road.
- 9:32Speaker 1: But even so, I mean, one of those games was
- 9:37Speaker 1: in their home state, the Jacksonville State one. Jacksonville State
- 9:40Speaker 1: is not that good. Toledo's all right, I mean, probably
- 9:42Speaker 1: Toledo's better than UTSA, although I'm actually not even sure
- 9:45Speaker 1: I closed ken pob but whatever, ken Bum doesn't have
- 9:49Speaker 1: a ton of separation between these two teams. Even though
- 9:51Speaker 1: South Alabama is the better of the two teams, it's
- 9:54Speaker 1: not that significant. They do have an undefeated New Mexico
- 9:57Speaker 1: State team up next back home, so I don't if
- 10:00Speaker 1: they're gonna be looking ahead to that or not. That's
- 10:01Speaker 1: not a conference game or anything like that, but neither
- 10:04Speaker 1: is UTSA. I don't know. I think they might get
- 10:06Speaker 1: caught man having to go to Texas for the first
- 10:08Speaker 1: time this year. South Alabama did also play in Florida
- 10:12Speaker 1: on one of those tournaments, so they have not played
- 10:13Speaker 1: in Texas this year. Gonna be an unfamiliar venue to them. UTSA.
- 10:20Speaker 1: I mean, they just regained some momentum with a win
- 10:22Speaker 1: over Georgia Southern. I mean Georgia Southern not a great team,
- 10:25Speaker 1: but decent win there. Anyway, I know, UTSA hasn't looked
- 10:29Speaker 1: good at home against some of these, Like I don't
- 10:32Speaker 1: think that that was their only win so far against
- 10:34Speaker 1: a D one team at home. They lost to Abilene
- 10:36Speaker 1: Christian and SIU Edwardsville, though those teams are both okay,
- 10:42Speaker 1: what do you want to call the mid majors or whatever?
- 10:44Speaker 1: And yes, I know UTSA does have Alabama next, but
- 10:46Speaker 1: that's not for a week. So I do think they're
- 10:49Speaker 1: gonna be remain focused on this game at home with
- 10:52Speaker 1: a week off prior to that. I'm gonna hope, and
- 10:55Speaker 1: that's the hope here. But I think this smat is
- 10:57Speaker 1: just really bad for South Alabama for they're coming off
- 11:00Speaker 1: of People are also gonna look at this if they
- 11:02Speaker 1: see this game, see oh my god, South Alabama six
- 11:05Speaker 1: and one, UTSA four and three. And it looks way
- 11:08Speaker 1: too easy to lay the small price of two and
- 11:10Speaker 1: a half. So that's another thing. It almost looks like
- 11:13Speaker 1: a trap to me. So we'll take the points here.
- 11:16Speaker 1: I think this line probably should be closer to about one.
- 11:19Speaker 1: Uh So that's what we're gonna do. U South Alabama
- 11:22Speaker 1: has moved up a little bit, but it does look
- 11:23Speaker 1: like the money's coming back on Texas sanit'soneo, you might
- 11:27Speaker 1: be able to I don't know. If the two and
- 11:29Speaker 1: a half is still out there, I'd still probably take
- 11:30Speaker 1: the plus two as well. Even up to about plus one,
- 11:35Speaker 1: I would probably still do it. Or down to about
- 11:37Speaker 1: plus one. Sixty percent of tickets eighty one percent of
- 11:40Speaker 1: the cash on UTSA. And of course, even though I
- 11:43Speaker 1: recommend taking the points, I would put like ten percent
- 11:46Speaker 1: of the bet on the money line as well as usual,
- 11:48Speaker 1: especially in a game of the small line like this.
- 11:51Speaker 1: I mean, if you're playing that team for saying, they're
- 11:52Speaker 1: pretty likely to win the game, so it looks like
- 11:56Speaker 1: the money agrees. It's a low total as well, even
- 12:00Speaker 1: though I believe UTSA plays a little bit faster than
- 12:02Speaker 1: South Alabama, so I actually think they're going to want
- 12:04Speaker 1: to try to speed the game up a little bit.
- 12:06Speaker 1: But all that being said, yeah, I will go with
- 12:10Speaker 1: it here, will take the points here. I think UTSA
- 12:12Speaker 1: is also the slightly better defensive team, so that is
- 12:15Speaker 1: what we'll do there. All right? What else did I
- 12:20Speaker 1: even want to talk about here? Willim and Mary is
- 12:24Speaker 1: kind of interesting because they're playing what usually I think
- 12:26Speaker 1: they considered to be a big brother in the state
- 12:28Speaker 1: of Virginia Old Dominion. But William and Mary is playing
- 12:31Speaker 1: really well to start the season. Old Dominion's way down
- 12:33Speaker 1: this year, William and Mary coming off in a ridiculous
- 12:36Speaker 1: blowout of Able and Christian, who's not really that bad
- 12:39Speaker 1: of a team. Old Dominion is not won a road
- 12:42Speaker 1: game yet this season. They're on the road again here,
- 12:45Speaker 1: although of course they're in their home state. They're coming
- 12:46Speaker 1: up a game against Villanova where they played all right
- 12:49Speaker 1: and came to within fourteen on the road. But it's
- 12:52Speaker 1: very interesting that William and Mary is a seven and
- 12:55Speaker 1: a half point favorite and they're taking some of the
- 12:57Speaker 1: money here the better team this year over Old Dominion,
- 13:01Speaker 1: which is usually not the case. Interesting to see that,
- 13:05Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean I would probably lay it because
- 13:09Speaker 1: I think William and Mary, I mean, they're they're gonna
- 13:12Speaker 1: get up for the game, I believe, even though they
- 13:13Speaker 1: are coming off a blowout. I guess you could argue that, well,
- 13:16Speaker 1: Old Dominion isn't really used to being in an underdog
- 13:19Speaker 1: role against William and Mary, so they might kind of
- 13:23Speaker 1: come out with more of a chip on their shoulder
- 13:25Speaker 1: because of that. But I don't really have a whole
- 13:27Speaker 1: lot to say about the rest of these games. I'm
- 13:28Speaker 1: just pointing it out. Yale and Vermont is actually gonna
- 13:31Speaker 1: be one of the better games of the day. There
- 13:34Speaker 1: aren't too many games that really look very enticing to
- 13:36Speaker 1: watch today. Even though there are gonna be some competitive
- 13:38Speaker 1: matchups between bad teams, these are at least decent mid
- 13:42Speaker 1: major teams. Yale, I believe is the better team. They're
- 13:46Speaker 1: off to a nice six and one start. They just
- 13:48Speaker 1: won this tournament that they were in though in the
- 13:52Speaker 1: Virgin Islands. They beat Akron to finish that off. Nice
- 13:56Speaker 1: performance from Yale in that tournament, even though they didn't
- 13:59Speaker 1: cover from against Green Bay, so thanks a lot Yale.
- 14:04Speaker 1: So Yale coming off of that, they could be in
- 14:05Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown spot off of that
- 14:07Speaker 1: and having to travel up to Vermont. Yale has been
- 14:10Speaker 1: good on the road so far, though. They beat Quinnipiac
- 14:12Speaker 1: in a blowout on the road. That's a pretty decent win.
- 14:14Speaker 1: Quinnipiac not a terrible team and any like kind of
- 14:18Speaker 1: an in state little brother situation there. Quinnipiac they'll get
- 14:22Speaker 1: up to face Yale. I mean, Quinnipiac is also only
- 14:25Speaker 1: like one town over from where Yale is, so they
- 14:28Speaker 1: were gonna get up for that game, and Yale still
- 14:31Speaker 1: demolished them. And then Yale did win that Navy as
- 14:33Speaker 1: well in a blowout. Although Navy isn't good, but they've
- 14:37Speaker 1: shown the ability to win on the road. But to me,
- 14:39Speaker 1: this does look like kind of a letdown spot. They
- 14:41Speaker 1: haven't been on the road for a while. Vermont is
- 14:45Speaker 1: gonna be the furthest true road game that they played
- 14:47Speaker 1: so far. I believe. No, no Navy, I guess was
- 14:49Speaker 1: what am I saying. But so Vermont, I don't know.
- 14:51Speaker 1: It's not really an easy place to play. Vermont is
- 14:53Speaker 1: coming off winning in a tournament that they were in
- 14:56Speaker 1: as well, but they were in Florida, so I don't know.
- 14:59Speaker 1: The travel I guess is comparable, I guess, but Florida
- 15:02Speaker 1: probably a little bit of an easier travel spot there.
- 15:05Speaker 1: Vermont did beat Princeton to finish off that tournament and
- 15:08Speaker 1: avoid taking last place in that tournament. Now they're coming
- 15:11Speaker 1: back home to me, I mean, I think the letdown
- 15:15Speaker 1: spot is the angle here. I would lean to Vermont
- 15:17Speaker 1: in this one. You're getting points. There's Yale is definitely
- 15:22Speaker 1: a favorite here. Yeah, Yale's a six and a half
- 15:24Speaker 1: point favorite. It's a pretty low it's a lital down
- 15:26Speaker 1: to one. Probably makes sense to look towards taking the
- 15:29Speaker 1: points of Vermont in that one. Lafayette hosting their tournament
- 15:34Speaker 1: against Monmouth. Both of these teams have had basically the
- 15:37Speaker 1: same results in this tournament. Both of these teams beat
- 15:40Speaker 1: Ball State and lost to le Moyne. I don't know
- 15:43Speaker 1: what Lemoyne is doing in this tournament, and I don't know.
- 15:46Speaker 1: I don't know what Lomoyne is on in this tournament.
- 15:49Speaker 1: Are they taking pds? I don't know. It's not like
- 15:52Speaker 1: these teams are very good though, la Fayette and Mond.
- 15:54Speaker 1: But none of these teams are good. But Lafayette, they're
- 15:58Speaker 1: hosting this thing. They're probably gonna want to hold serve here,
- 16:01Speaker 1: would be my guests. They're two and a half point
- 16:03Speaker 1: underdog though, But I mean Oddsmaker's telling you Lafey it
- 16:07Speaker 1: sucks and that Mommouth is actually the better of the
- 16:09Speaker 1: two teams. I don't know. I would probably lean towards
- 16:12Speaker 1: taking the points of the home team here, though Monmouth
- 16:16Speaker 1: also has owned three in road games so far. Although
- 16:19Speaker 1: Lafayette is a weak opponent and there are other road
- 16:22Speaker 1: games you know two of them are against Seaton Hall
- 16:24Speaker 1: at Syracuse, obviously better teams than Lafayette, but still I
- 16:28Speaker 1: don't know. I don't have much of an opinion on
- 16:30Speaker 1: it though low total. By the way, in that game,
- 16:33Speaker 1: Hofstra for some reason involved in this UPenn tournament U
- 16:37Speaker 1: Penn is hosting it. They're at home in this one
- 16:39Speaker 1: against Hofstra, coming off a close call against LaSalle, but
- 16:42Speaker 1: they might still consider that to be a big win
- 16:44Speaker 1: against Lasal because it's an in city brothers little brother situation,
- 16:50Speaker 1: big brother, little brother situation. Hastra just annihilated Merrimack, but
- 16:54Speaker 1: I mean that's not a surprise. They suck. Hostra is
- 16:57Speaker 1: the better team, as the oddsmakers are telling you there
- 16:59Speaker 1: were one and a half point favorite, even though they're
- 17:01Speaker 1: on the road. Probably would slightly lean to Hofstr on
- 17:04Speaker 1: that one, but no real opinion there. Texas Tech is
- 17:08Speaker 1: the only ranked team playing today, ranked twentieth, and they
- 17:11Speaker 1: get this matchup that nobody's gonna watch at home against Wyoming.
- 17:15Speaker 1: I mean, Texas Tech obviously does not need to go
- 17:17Speaker 1: all out in this game. They won for US at
- 17:19Speaker 1: their previous game, covering against New Orleans, so that was
- 17:22Speaker 1: a nice win. They do have LSU next, so in
- 17:25Speaker 1: SEC team up next. I know it's a bad SEC team,
- 17:27Speaker 1: but well LSU looks like they're a little bit better
- 17:30Speaker 1: this year maybe, and they've done decently not too long ago,
- 17:33Speaker 1: So that is a much bigger game than Wyoming at
- 17:35Speaker 1: the very least, so Texas Tech they might overlook Wyoming.
- 17:39Speaker 1: Wyoming's off to a pretty good six and one start,
- 17:41Speaker 1: although they really haven't played anybody good and they took
- 17:44Speaker 1: a loss in the only road game at Sam Houston,
- 17:47Speaker 1: who I also don't think is that good. So obviously
- 17:51Speaker 1: Texas Tech is the significantly better team. But I also
- 17:54Speaker 1: don't really see a reason for Texas Tech to really
- 17:56Speaker 1: push it in this game, like they know they can
- 17:58Speaker 1: win without doing a whole lot. In this game throw
- 18:01Speaker 1: up to a twenty one point favorite, I would probably
- 18:03Speaker 1: look towards taking the points in that one. Texas Tech
- 18:05Speaker 1: also doesn't really play particularly fast, so covering a big
- 18:10Speaker 1: number like that even though I know we laid the
- 18:12Speaker 1: points with them in their last game, but that was
- 18:14Speaker 1: like a specific spot where it made sense to do it.
- 18:17Speaker 1: I think in this spot taking the points makes more sense,
- 18:20Speaker 1: but I don't really want to do it. Jeffrey, it's up.
- 18:22Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out man. All right. We do have
- 18:27Speaker 1: West Virginia in action today, one of the big boys
- 18:30Speaker 1: against mercy Hurst. Mercy Hurst, they've been interesting this year, man.
- 18:34Speaker 1: Mercyhurst only in the second year in Division One, I think,
- 18:37Speaker 1: and they've had some competitive games here. They're coming up
- 18:40Speaker 1: playing Miami Ohio to within five on the road, Miami
- 18:44Speaker 1: Ohio fifteen to that point, underdog Mercyhurst potentially could have
- 18:47Speaker 1: won that game like it looked like they've had a
- 18:49Speaker 1: chance to at one point. That's why I faded them.
- 18:52Speaker 1: In the next game. Marshall did not get the job
- 18:54Speaker 1: done for us in Mercyhurst actually played pretty well again,
- 18:57Speaker 1: only losing by nine and covering it against Marshall. Not
- 19:01Speaker 1: happy about that obviously Personally mercy Hurst. At some point,
- 19:05Speaker 1: I'm expecting like this to run out for them. Although
- 19:08Speaker 1: they haven't played for a week now, you gotta think
- 19:10Speaker 1: they will want to step it up for a game
- 19:12Speaker 1: against West Virginia. Though the last time they played a
- 19:15Speaker 1: team in a power conference, Northwestern embarrassed Mercyhurst. Northwestern is
- 19:20Speaker 1: better than West Virginia or the West Virginia. I think
- 19:23Speaker 1: they're improving. I mean they got North Texas's old coach there.
- 19:26Speaker 1: Now they're playing this really annoying slowdown style. The teams
- 19:31Speaker 1: don't really like to play the Mercy Hurst does play
- 19:33Speaker 1: slow as well, so I don't know if that's I
- 19:35Speaker 1: think they do so that. I don't know if that's
- 19:37Speaker 1: going to really throw them off that much. But West Virginia,
- 19:40Speaker 1: I mean, they're coming off having to play in some
- 19:41Speaker 1: tournament where they lost to Clemson and to Xavier. This
- 19:45Speaker 1: is in Charleston, South Carolina. West Virginia took those two losses.
- 19:51Speaker 1: That was a week ago, and now they're back home.
- 19:52Speaker 1: But do they bounce back from that? I don't know.
- 19:57Speaker 1: I probably would not want to lay a ton of
- 19:58Speaker 1: points with West Virginia. The I mean, they're just such
- 20:01Speaker 1: a slow down style. Now they're a twenty two point
- 20:03Speaker 1: favorite with a ridiculously low total of one hundred and
- 20:06Speaker 1: twenty eight, one of the lowest that you'll see in
- 20:09Speaker 1: college basketball. And that's because West Virginia is the new
- 20:12Speaker 1: North Texas basic and North Texas still plays slow. But
- 20:16Speaker 1: now that their coach is at West Virginia, he's got
- 20:18Speaker 1: some of his guys there. West Virginia already played slow too.
- 20:22Speaker 1: But now they're like they play at a snail's pace,
- 20:25Speaker 1: so asking him to cover a twenty two point spread
- 20:28Speaker 1: is a huge ask for West Virginia, like they should
- 20:31Speaker 1: win the game, but I they probably won't cover, would
- 20:35Speaker 1: be my guests, so I probably look towards taking the points. Fordham,
- 20:41Speaker 1: who they're on my good side because they had a
- 20:43Speaker 1: nice win and cover for us yesterday against Albany. Now
- 20:46Speaker 1: they got to step it up a little bit to
- 20:47Speaker 1: play Colgate, who was a little bit better than that.
- 20:49Speaker 1: Playing in this k Beec tournament up here. Colegate is
- 20:53Speaker 1: the better team. Colgate did beat Albany, so everybody will
- 20:56Speaker 1: see that, but Colgate didn't look good in that win
- 20:59Speaker 1: though Coldgate. They only beat Albany by two points, and
- 21:02Speaker 1: now we're seeing Fordham just beat them by twenty. Colgate
- 21:06Speaker 1: coming off a win that will continue their momentum against
- 21:09Speaker 1: I don't know, some non Division one team Sony Oneonta,
- 21:15Speaker 1: which is State University of New York at Oneonta. They're
- 21:18Speaker 1: up in this Quebec thing too. For whatever reason, Colgate
- 21:22Speaker 1: got an easy win there that should continue their momentum
- 21:24Speaker 1: at least, So yeah, I'm I would probably lean towards Colgate.
- 21:30Speaker 1: They flipped to a one n half way favorite. People might
- 21:32Speaker 1: look at like the team's records and stuff and be
- 21:34Speaker 1: kind of misled. Here, Oh, Fordham six and two, and
- 21:37Speaker 1: Fordham just destroyed who did I say it was? Yes, Albany,
- 21:43Speaker 1: They just destroyed Albany. Albany sucks, and Albany almost beat Colgate,
- 21:46Speaker 1: which by the way, was part of the handicap, and
- 21:48Speaker 1: yesterday's win with Fordham because Albany was coming off that
- 21:51Speaker 1: tough game. But people are gonna look at all of
- 21:53Speaker 1: that and think, oh my god, like it's basically a
- 21:56Speaker 1: pick the winner. Fordham is actually an underdog. How are
- 21:59Speaker 1: you getting the team with the better record as an underdog?
- 22:01Speaker 1: The team it's in the better conference? The eight ten?
- 22:03Speaker 1: The Patriot League sucks, Colgate barely got by Albany, Fordham
- 22:08Speaker 1: destroyed Albany. Like everything from the public's perspective makes it
- 22:11Speaker 1: look really easy to play floridam in this game. So
- 22:14Speaker 1: I would not do that. I would play Colgate in
- 22:16Speaker 1: this one. Oddsmaker's telling you that the better team, even
- 22:19Speaker 1: though I still agree that the Patriot League is terrible.
- 22:22Speaker 1: But yeah, that's the way that I would look at
- 22:23Speaker 1: that game. Bonaventure in Florida. Atlantic is kind of an
- 22:28Speaker 1: interesting one at Florida Atlantic. Yeah, FAU is hosting this
- 22:33Speaker 1: one for Bonaventure. They have not played a true road
- 22:36Speaker 1: game yet this year, so that is a difficult spot
- 22:39Speaker 1: when you play your first true road game this late
- 22:41Speaker 1: into the season. Man FAU is undefeated at home, gonna
- 22:45Speaker 1: be difficult. FAU is coming up a difficult game though,
- 22:47Speaker 1: there's no doubt about that against George Mason, which was
- 22:51Speaker 1: in Daytona Beach, so it wasn't at FAU. So they
- 22:55Speaker 1: were up in Daytona and they're coming back home from that.
- 22:58Speaker 1: That was a big game. FAU played pretty well in
- 23:01Speaker 1: that game. They were in that game. George Mason is
- 23:04Speaker 1: one of the top teams in the A ten right now.
- 23:06Speaker 1: That was a big game for it. Atlantic did put
- 23:08Speaker 1: in a big effort there, so it looks like kind
- 23:11Speaker 1: of a difficult spot for both teams, to be honest. However,
- 23:15Speaker 1: FAU is laying points, which does look a little bit
- 23:17Speaker 1: interesting when you see that. If you look at the
- 23:19Speaker 1: records here, oh, Bonaventure six and one, FAUS five and two,
- 23:24Speaker 1: So it almost looks tempting to take the points with
- 23:26Speaker 1: Bonadventure the money looks like it's on FAU at three
- 23:30Speaker 1: and a half, fifty five percent of the cash on them,
- 23:32Speaker 1: sixty seven percent of tickets on Bonaventure. I'll agree with
- 23:35Speaker 1: the market. I think the fact that there's the first
- 23:37Speaker 1: true road game and the market read kind of is
- 23:40Speaker 1: the those are the clinching factors in that one. I'm
- 23:42Speaker 1: not gonna play it or give it out as a play,
- 23:44Speaker 1: but FAU seems to be the side in that game.
- 23:47Speaker 1: Charleston is hosting whatever this thing is against Belmont. This
- 23:50Speaker 1: might not even be a tournament anymore. They're just hosting Belmont.
- 23:53Speaker 1: This is actually a good game, though, one of the
- 23:55Speaker 1: other good games of the day. Belmont is undefeated. But
- 23:58Speaker 1: Belmont really his face of pretty easy schedule. I mean
- 24:02Speaker 1: their biggest win, I guess is their most recent game
- 24:04Speaker 1: against Toledo. I mean they really have not been tested yet.
- 24:07Speaker 1: So Belmont a little bit of a false seven to zero,
- 24:10Speaker 1: although I'm not saying they're bad by any means, but
- 24:13Speaker 1: Charleston's sitting at four and four. But they faced a
- 24:15Speaker 1: much more difficult schedule. I mean, they faced Liberty, Fau Drake.
- 24:19Speaker 1: Drake looked good again yesterday. Yale beating U Mass is
- 24:24Speaker 1: not a bad win either. Charleston has definitely been more tested,
- 24:27Speaker 1: so that's going to factor into this handicap too. Like
- 24:30Speaker 1: it looks too easy to lay the two with Belmont, right, Like,
- 24:33Speaker 1: how are you only laying two points to a seven
- 24:35Speaker 1: and o team against a four and four team? It
- 24:38Speaker 1: looks way too easy to lay it with Belmont, their
- 24:40Speaker 1: public seventy five percent of tickets and cash. I would
- 24:43Speaker 1: look to take the points with Charleston. They're coming off
- 24:46Speaker 1: a bounce back win and easy win of Revensville. Evansville sucks,
- 24:49Speaker 1: so that should just give them some momentum back. And
- 24:52Speaker 1: again Belmont having to go back out on the road,
- 24:55Speaker 1: and the only true road game they played so far
- 24:56Speaker 1: was at Oral Roberts, and I know they played well
- 24:58Speaker 1: in the game they beat the My twenty three Charleston
- 25:01Speaker 1: is better than Oral Roberts though, So yeah, I mean
- 25:05Speaker 1: that's basically what I have to say about that. Oral
- 25:07Speaker 1: Roberts was a weird venue for Belmont to have to
- 25:10Speaker 1: go to though, because Belmont is in Tennessee, so that
- 25:13Speaker 1: was odd, all right. And then yet the other game
- 25:18Speaker 1: in that astional tournament is vomit inducing the Citadel and Presbyterian.
- 25:24Speaker 1: I don't really have much to say about that. I'm
- 25:26Speaker 1: just pointing the game out. Presbyterian is actually a seven
- 25:28Speaker 1: alt point favorite. Imagine how bad of a team you
- 25:31Speaker 1: have to be to be a seven and alt point
- 25:32Speaker 1: underdog against Presbyterian, against the Blue Hose, the team who's
- 25:38Speaker 1: mascot and name is literally Pantyhose. I mean, it's ridiculous.
- 25:44Speaker 1: It would be actually less embarrassing if it was just
- 25:46Speaker 1: a hose. The total is down to one thirty one
- 25:50Speaker 1: in that game. There's just an ugly, ugly total. I
- 25:53Speaker 1: mean for a team like Presbyterian, I don't know, it
- 25:55Speaker 1: seems like a big ass to ask them to cover
- 25:57Speaker 1: a number like that. You see, Irvine is only laying
- 26:01Speaker 1: one and a half at San Jose State. I mean,
- 26:03Speaker 1: people probably remember the Irvine name because they've been one
- 26:06Speaker 1: of the better teams in the Big West for a
- 26:07Speaker 1: while now. They might be a little bit down this year, though, Man,
- 26:11Speaker 1: it seems like you see San Diego is kind of
- 26:14Speaker 1: taking over that role. You see, Irvine just got a
- 26:16Speaker 1: big win in Cancun against South Dakota State was not
- 26:19Speaker 1: a bad team. Irvine was able to salvage the Cancun
- 26:23Speaker 1: Tournament with a win there. Now they're coming back to California,
- 26:27Speaker 1: but they're going to San Jose. Kind of a weird
- 26:29Speaker 1: travel spot to have to go from Mexico up to
- 26:31Speaker 1: San Jose. San Jose State is coming back, they're staying
- 26:35Speaker 1: in California. They're coming back from Palm Springs where they
- 26:39Speaker 1: beat this Loyola team that really just looks like they're
- 26:41Speaker 1: no good this year, so nothing to really gain from that.
- 26:45Speaker 1: I think the travel spot is better for San Jose here.
- 26:49Speaker 1: That is probably the way that I would look. And
- 26:50Speaker 1: people are gonna look at this and oh, it's a
- 26:52Speaker 1: Pickham price, and remember the name Irvine, and Irvine still
- 26:56Speaker 1: is a better record than San Jose now, So I
- 26:58Speaker 1: think the public, if they look at this game, they'll
- 27:00Speaker 1: be on the Irvine side. I would probably take the
- 27:02Speaker 1: points with San Jose uh sixty seven percent of tickets,
- 27:05Speaker 1: only fifty three percent of the cash on Irvine, and
- 27:08Speaker 1: they've dropped from two to one. So the market reads
- 27:10Speaker 1: seems to say San Jose State they're not the better team,
- 27:13Speaker 1: but in this spot, I mean it seems appropriate in
- 27:17Speaker 1: that game. All right, let's finish it off. We have
- 27:21Speaker 1: a few NHL games. I don't have a play in
- 27:23Speaker 1: the NHL to I don't love these games. Washington is
- 27:26Speaker 1: gonna be at the Islanders. Washington's on a nice hot
- 27:29Speaker 1: streak here, trying to return to what they were last year.
- 27:33Speaker 1: Man still with with how old is Ovechkin now forty three,
- 27:39Speaker 1: forty two. I don't know Washington's playing well. They've won
- 27:41Speaker 1: three games in a row. They just beat Toronto, so
- 27:45Speaker 1: I just think they're in I think they're in a
- 27:47Speaker 1: positive spot. They're starting a road trip with momentum. I
- 27:50Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna be like overconfident after beating Toronto.
- 27:54Speaker 1: I think it's a good spot. First game on the road.
- 27:57Speaker 1: Usually you do a focus for that, and then they
- 27:59Speaker 1: do to travel out to the Pacific Coast after this,
- 28:02Speaker 1: which is gonna get more interesting. But for this game,
- 28:04Speaker 1: they're only gonna be in New York. The Islanders have
- 28:07Speaker 1: played pretty well recently as well. Islanders did take two
- 28:11Speaker 1: losses in a row, though they did lose their last
- 28:14Speaker 1: game in a shootout to Philadelphia. Don't want to talk
- 28:17Speaker 1: about it a loss on the show for me. In
- 28:19Speaker 1: that one, they're just staying at home, so they look
- 28:21Speaker 1: like they're probably in bounce back mode here, even though
- 28:23Speaker 1: they do have Tampa up next. It's not like they're
- 28:25Speaker 1: really gonna overlook Washington, especially when they're on a losing
- 28:29Speaker 1: streak here. So both teams are in positive spots. But
- 28:32Speaker 1: where it gets pretty interesting is the odds makers. To me,
- 28:36Speaker 1: I think they're kind of telling you what to think here.
- 28:38Speaker 1: They're telling you the Washington is the better teams, They're
- 28:40Speaker 1: a favorite on the road, even though the record is
- 28:43Speaker 1: only slightly better than the Islanders. I mean, I'm not
- 28:47Speaker 1: gonna disagree with the odds makers in this one. Seventy
- 28:50Speaker 1: one percent of tickets, ninety five percent of the cash
- 28:52Speaker 1: on Washington, they're up to minus one to twenty six.
- 28:55Speaker 1: I would probably lean Washington money line in that game.
- 28:58Speaker 1: Not a play for me, though, I'm out. I just
- 29:00Speaker 1: don't really see much of an angle on it. Otherwise,
- 29:03Speaker 1: Anaheim is going to be at Chicago. Anaheim very good
- 29:06Speaker 1: home team, not as good on the road. Don't think
- 29:09Speaker 1: they're as good as a record indicates. In general, they've
- 29:12Speaker 1: been okay on the road. Basically they're five hundred on
- 29:14Speaker 1: the road or the Chicago a team that is not
- 29:17Speaker 1: as good as the record looks. Either although now they've
- 29:19Speaker 1: kind of crashed back down to earth. So maybe Chicago
- 29:22Speaker 1: will be able to get some games here in the
- 29:25Speaker 1: near future after they've been exposed. And now you know,
- 29:29Speaker 1: the market is having to adjust to that and whatever,
- 29:32Speaker 1: and you know people are not gonna want Chicago anymore.
- 29:36Speaker 1: Anaheim coming off a shootout win over LA, that's a
- 29:39Speaker 1: big win for them, man, I mean LA, their rival
- 29:42Speaker 1: that's thirty minutes down the road or whatever. They're going
- 29:45Speaker 1: on the road here. Usually, yes, you will be focused
- 29:47Speaker 1: to start a road trip starting with momentum. It's only
- 29:50Speaker 1: a two game road trip. Is this the Dad trip?
- 29:52Speaker 1: By the way, I don't know. We need to know, man,
- 29:55Speaker 1: we do need to know. Is this the Dad trip.
- 29:58Speaker 1: I'm gonna look right now, because whenever I see a
- 29:59Speaker 1: two road trip, I have to just dude, I should
- 30:02Speaker 1: just get in the habit of doing this. If it's
- 30:03Speaker 1: a two game road trip, let's see if it's the
- 30:06Speaker 1: Dad trip. Like sometimes, you can't even find any information
- 30:10Speaker 1: about it. Man, I'm looking right now. I see a
- 30:15Speaker 1: tweet about Anaheim's Dad trip last year, which was in
- 30:19Speaker 1: December of last year. I don't see it. I see
- 30:22Speaker 1: no information about it. Man, that sucks. Yeah, I don't know.
- 30:28Speaker 1: I can't figure it out. If anybody knows, they can
- 30:30Speaker 1: tell me, because that would somewhat change my opinion because
- 30:34Speaker 1: that just adds more focus to the road team as
- 30:37Speaker 1: it is right now, though, Anaheim looks like they may
- 30:39Speaker 1: be in a little bit of a letdown spot off
- 30:41Speaker 1: of that win over LA. Chicago hasn't been playing well
- 30:43Speaker 1: right now, and Chicago is staying at home coming off
- 30:47Speaker 1: a loss in Nashville. I know those two teams don't
- 30:49Speaker 1: like each other, but having lost five games in a
- 30:53Speaker 1: row and wanted to salvage the last game of a
- 30:54Speaker 1: home stand where you haven't won any games on the
- 30:56Speaker 1: home stand, and Night will be back in net Here
- 30:59Speaker 1: for them as Soda Bloom was in that last time,
- 31:02Speaker 1: so Night is their better goalie. I would probably lean
- 31:05Speaker 1: to Chicago in this one. Anaheim is going to be
- 31:07Speaker 1: public eighty one percent of tickets, they have ninety three
- 31:09Speaker 1: percent of the cash. Right now, they're down for minus
- 31:12Speaker 1: one twenty to minus one nineteen. I would probably look
- 31:14Speaker 1: towards Chicago, though, was the home dog in that one,
- 31:17Speaker 1: unless it's the Dad trip, then maybe I would have
- 31:21Speaker 1: less of an opinion on Chicago on that one. But
- 31:24Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not gonna give it out as a
- 31:25Speaker 1: play either way. But uh, pretty weird. It's weird that
- 31:30Speaker 1: we have no information on the Dad trips. Man. I
- 31:32Speaker 1: want to know Tampa, Yeah, their offense. Yeah. I haven't
- 31:36Speaker 1: played a hockey video game for a long time, and
- 31:39Speaker 1: I used to play the EA one back in the day.
- 31:41Speaker 1: I had it every year for a long time, NHL
- 31:44Speaker 1: starting with like NHL ninety seven or ninety six on
- 31:47Speaker 1: when I had that game, like every year. I haven't
- 31:50Speaker 1: played many sports games in a long time now, though
- 31:52Speaker 1: I used to play at all. I played Madden obviously
- 31:54Speaker 1: had some of the college ones. Tampa is in New
- 31:59Speaker 1: York to play their next game against the Islanders. Yeah,
- 32:02Speaker 1: so if if they're doing the Ranger, Islanders think it
- 32:05Speaker 1: makes it an easier travel spot for them. In that one,
- 32:10Speaker 1: Calgary is at Carolina. I mean, this is gonna be
- 32:12Speaker 1: the biggest line of the of the day of the
- 32:14Speaker 1: hockey slad here. Obviously, Calgary is one of the worst teams,
- 32:18Speaker 1: Carolina is one of the better teams. So and Calgary
- 32:22Speaker 1: is coming off beating the returning champs Florida. Florida kind
- 32:26Speaker 1: of mediocre this year. But still, that's a huge win
- 32:29Speaker 1: for Carolina. For Calgary to go on the road and
- 32:32Speaker 1: beat Florida, I mean, that's a big win. Man. Florida
- 32:35Speaker 1: pretty much outplayed them too, I mean well, face off
- 32:37Speaker 1: percentage was close, Florida had more shots, more hits in
- 32:41Speaker 1: the game. There was an empty net at the end,
- 32:43Speaker 1: so it's not like the game was really out of
- 32:45Speaker 1: reach for most of it for Florida. Big win for Calgary, though.
- 32:49Speaker 1: Will they be able to maintain that effort again against Carolina.
- 32:52Speaker 1: I think they'll try, because Carolina is not a team
- 32:54Speaker 1: you're gonna overlook. But I don't know if we can
- 32:57Speaker 1: get that much effort again out of Calgary here, and
- 33:00Speaker 1: they might just run out of steam here. That's the
- 33:02Speaker 1: issue with teams that are not good like this, that
- 33:04Speaker 1: have to try to put in a huge effort multiple
- 33:06Speaker 1: games in a row as a road dog like this.
- 33:09Speaker 1: Carolina just had a pretty easy win against the hell
- 33:12Speaker 1: of bookless Winnipeg Jets, who look pretty much lost without him,
- 33:16Speaker 1: which is ridiculous. I mean, he's he's the best goalie
- 33:19Speaker 1: in the league. But still, I mean it's I don't know,
- 33:21Speaker 1: that team looks like they can't win without him, and
- 33:24Speaker 1: Carolina had Bussy in net in that game too, so
- 33:26Speaker 1: they're gonna have one of their better goalies in net,
- 33:28Speaker 1: likely Anderson in net, who's been their better goalie for
- 33:31Speaker 1: some period of time now in net here. I would
- 33:34Speaker 1: not want to fake Calgary in the spot. We don't
- 33:38Speaker 1: really see much going on with the market activity here there.
- 33:40Speaker 1: Carolina is a big favorite. They're down for minus two
- 33:43Speaker 1: to fifty minus two forty. But I mean, if I
- 33:45Speaker 1: was gonna play the game, maybe laying a puck line
- 33:48Speaker 1: with Carolina or doing Carolina regulation or something kind of
- 33:52Speaker 1: makes sense to me in this one. Carolina has been
- 33:56Speaker 1: pretty good at home and they only have one overtime
- 33:58Speaker 1: loss at home, so if they're gonna they're probably gonna
- 34:00Speaker 1: win in regulation, whether when it's a home game. Calgary,
- 34:04Speaker 1: you know, expectedly is not great on the road either.
- 34:06Speaker 1: So Ea, yeah, it was that bad three years ago.
- 34:12Speaker 1: I haven't owned that game in a long time. I
- 34:15Speaker 1: haven't had Madden for a few years years either. They
- 34:18Speaker 1: kept changing Madden, Dude. Like I loved the graphics getting
- 34:21Speaker 1: way better and stuff than Madden and that type of thing.
- 34:23Speaker 1: But like Madden Dude, the fact that they changed the
- 34:26Speaker 1: kicking interface every year. It's like, what is wrong with you? Like,
- 34:29Speaker 1: why would you keep doing that? Like they had certain
- 34:31Speaker 1: kicking interfaces that were absolutely fine, better than fine, and
- 34:35Speaker 1: they all it's changing again. Fuck you Madden, Fuck you ea,
- 34:40Speaker 1: your parlay hit there with your player props there celebrating Kempy.
- 34:45Speaker 1: Hell yeah, man z, what's up? Man? All right? And
- 34:48Speaker 1: then we do have Ottawa at Dallas. This would probably
- 34:51Speaker 1: be my strongest lean in hockey today. It's not. It's
- 34:54Speaker 1: still not strong. I don't want to give out a
- 34:55Speaker 1: player or anything. But Dallas unfortunately beat us in that
- 34:58Speaker 1: return home spot, which it was not a good spot
- 35:01Speaker 1: for them. They beat Utah anyway, they're staying at home
- 35:05Speaker 1: off of that. I mean, I don't know, man, Like,
- 35:08Speaker 1: do they overlook a team that's in the East, in
- 35:11Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference, Ottawa, who is also a team they
- 35:14Speaker 1: already beat earlier in November on the road at Ottawa.
- 35:17Speaker 1: They might, I mean, Dallas, Yeah, I just don't know
- 35:21Speaker 1: how much weight they're gonna put into this game against
- 35:23Speaker 1: Ottawa and Ottawa. I think it's kind of under the
- 35:26Speaker 1: radar right now, twelve eight and four. The record doesn't
- 35:28Speaker 1: look that good, but We'll look at the odds in
- 35:30Speaker 1: a minute, and the odds are telling you that Dallas
- 35:32Speaker 1: is not the significantly better team here, that they're only
- 35:35Speaker 1: slightly better. Ottawa just lost in Saint Louis. I mean,
- 35:39Speaker 1: I think that that was a bad spot for Ottawa
- 35:41Speaker 1: if you look at that. I don't remember if I
- 35:43Speaker 1: gave it. Did I give out Saint Louis in that game?
- 35:45Speaker 1: I don't remember if I did, but if I didn't,
- 35:48Speaker 1: it was probably because Saint Louis also was in a
- 35:49Speaker 1: bad spot. But Ottawa was coming off a shootout win
- 35:52Speaker 1: over Vegas and they had this Dallas game to look
- 35:54Speaker 1: ahead too. So basically I think what that means is
- 35:57Speaker 1: they were looking ahead to this game. I think they'll
- 35:59Speaker 1: want to get a little litle bit of revenge quick
- 36:01Speaker 1: road revenge here for losing to Dallas at home. I
- 36:05Speaker 1: like Ottawa in this game. It's I don't think it's
- 36:07Speaker 1: strong enough, but I would lean to Autawa here. Market
- 36:10Speaker 1: seems to agree. Dallas is down for minus one fifty
- 36:13Speaker 1: minus one thirty eight looks like a pretty cheap price
- 36:16Speaker 1: on Dallas. Man, it looks very enticing, I think to
- 36:19Speaker 1: the public eye to play this Dallas team that has
- 36:21Speaker 1: a significantly better record. Everybody sees them as the better team.
- 36:25Speaker 1: They are, but they're not really getting They're not a
- 36:28Speaker 1: heavy favorite here, man, So the oddsmakers are telling you
- 36:31Speaker 1: that there is not that much of a difference power
- 36:33Speaker 1: ratings wise between these two teams. Ninety five percent of ticket,
- 36:36Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of the cash on Dallas, so they're
- 36:38Speaker 1: public with less of the money on them. All right,
- 36:42Speaker 1: let's go to NBA and then we will get out
- 36:46Speaker 1: of here. I'm gonna give up two NBA plays. One
- 36:48Speaker 1: is in the first game up, so we have an
- 36:50Speaker 1: afternoon game. So even though I don't have any afternoon
- 36:52Speaker 1: football more best bets here, we do have afternoon basketball here.
- 37:00Speaker 1: And you knew what you probably knew I was gonna
- 37:01Speaker 1: do this. We're gonna take the twelve and a half.
- 37:03Speaker 1: With the Utah Jazz at home against Houston. The Jazz
- 37:06Speaker 1: have been pretty good to me at home, so hopefully
- 37:09Speaker 1: that continues. They've been decent as a home underdog, man,
- 37:12Speaker 1: So at least you can say that about the Jazz.
- 37:15Speaker 1: This is a bad spot for the Rockets. They're very public.
- 37:18Speaker 1: Eighty nine percent of tickets, ninety six percent of the
- 37:20Speaker 1: cash for now, But they were gonna be a nine
- 37:22Speaker 1: and a half point favorite and now they're a twelve
- 37:24Speaker 1: point favorite. And I could not figure out why, Like
- 37:27Speaker 1: as far as I looked at like the injury like
- 37:29Speaker 1: the injury report and whatever, and there didn't seem to
- 37:31Speaker 1: be anything that important in there. So I don't know
- 37:33Speaker 1: what's going on with that. But hey, if you're gonna
- 37:35Speaker 1: get more points with the Jazz, why not. I mentioned
- 37:38Speaker 1: this already because I was just waiting for Houston's next
- 37:41Speaker 1: game because they're coming off a huge win over Golden
- 37:43Speaker 1: State man on the road, getting playoff revenge because Golden
- 37:48Speaker 1: State was the team and eliminated Houston. That was a
- 37:51Speaker 1: big win for them. Man, Houston, They've had three pretty
- 37:54Speaker 1: big games in a row, barely losing it or four
- 37:57Speaker 1: really since Wednesday, November nineteenth. They beat Clear, went on
- 38:00Speaker 1: the road, played really close with Denver at home, then
- 38:03Speaker 1: they went on on the road. They beat Phoenix, who
- 38:05Speaker 1: has been playing well recently, and that was kind of
- 38:08Speaker 1: a big deal because that was the I believe that
- 38:10Speaker 1: was like the Durant trade game there, you know what
- 38:14Speaker 1: I mean. That was the two teams that were involved
- 38:16Speaker 1: in the Durant trade. So that was a pretty big
- 38:18Speaker 1: deal as well, though I don't even know if Durant
- 38:20Speaker 1: played in that game. And then Houston beat Golden State
- 38:24Speaker 1: as well, and now Houston actually maybe that's why this
- 38:28Speaker 1: might be Durant coming back. Actually I'll look at that
- 38:30Speaker 1: in a second, although if whether he does or whether
- 38:33Speaker 1: he does, and I still like this play Houston. Now
- 38:37Speaker 1: they're going on the road into elevation to play Utah.
- 38:39Speaker 1: It's gonna be a situation where they're playing Utah twice
- 38:44Speaker 1: or I think the next game might be an NBA
- 38:46Speaker 1: Cup game or something out of the NBA Cup. Stuff
- 38:49Speaker 1: is so stupid. I don't even know, but whatever it is,
- 38:52Speaker 1: they're playing at Utah twice. But I just think they
- 38:55Speaker 1: might be in a letdown spot here, man, and the
- 38:56Speaker 1: fact that they had extra days off here might not help
- 38:59Speaker 1: them because they might just be kind of basking in
- 39:01Speaker 1: that win out on the Pacific Coast there against Golden
- 39:04Speaker 1: State that was a massive win. Maybe they were out
- 39:07Speaker 1: in San Francisco celebrating for Utah. I do think the
- 39:10Speaker 1: spot sets up better for Utah. They just got to
- 39:12Speaker 1: win against the Kings coming back home, so that's good
- 39:15Speaker 1: that they just have some momentum now, and they had
- 39:17Speaker 1: a lot of rest prior to that game, so they're
- 39:19Speaker 1: not gonna be like a tire team coming into this game.
- 39:23Speaker 1: Utah did also have yesterday off and they're staying at home.
- 39:26Speaker 1: People will also look and see Utah just played Golden State,
- 39:29Speaker 1: But you remember I actually laid the points with Golden
- 39:32Speaker 1: State on this channel, and they did get there for us.
- 39:35Speaker 1: It was close, but they got the win and cover.
- 39:38Speaker 1: It was a good spot for Golden State, and I
- 39:40Speaker 1: thought a bad spot for Utah because we played Utah
- 39:43Speaker 1: here on the show in the game before that against
- 39:44Speaker 1: the Lakers, and they covered for us. So hopefully we
- 39:47Speaker 1: still continue to get it done. Man. I mean, we
- 39:49Speaker 1: gotta win with Utah in that game against the Lakers
- 39:51Speaker 1: at home. We got to win with them against Chicago
- 39:53Speaker 1: at home. They went outright. I don't know. I don't
- 39:56Speaker 1: want to go through all of them. We did get
- 39:58Speaker 1: some wins with Utah there at home, so hopefully we
- 40:01Speaker 1: can can can hopefully we can continue that trend here.
- 40:06Speaker 1: Even though you know, my piston's whispering is better than
- 40:09Speaker 1: anything else Utah. I'll whisper some jazz though, just because
- 40:14Speaker 1: I like jazz music. But yeah, people will look at
- 40:16Speaker 1: this and see, oh, Golden State. Both of these games
- 40:20Speaker 1: at Golden State. By the way, Golden State beat Utah
- 40:22Speaker 1: by seventeen and Houston beat Golden State, So it looks
- 40:26Speaker 1: kind of easy even though it's a big number, right,
- 40:28Speaker 1: it looks pretty easy. Oh well, Houston should easily handle Utah,
- 40:31Speaker 1: right if they beat Golden State and Golden State easily
- 40:34Speaker 1: beat Utah. Again, that's not the way that it works though.
- 40:37Speaker 1: Every game is an individual situation. So we do have
- 40:40Speaker 1: that common opponent, you know, misleading the public coming into
- 40:43Speaker 1: play here as well. I don't put that much weighted
- 40:45Speaker 1: to that, but it's a little bit of icing on
- 40:47Speaker 1: the cake. As far as this one, this is my
- 40:50Speaker 1: favorite NBA play. I like this one better than the
- 40:52Speaker 1: other one I'm gonna give out. So I don't know,
- 40:54Speaker 1: do what you want to with that information, but yeah,
- 40:56Speaker 1: we're gonna take the points with Utah there, all right.
- 41:01Speaker 1: Next up, we do have my Boston Celtics at Cleveland.
- 41:05Speaker 1: Celtics are on a back to back with travel having
- 41:08Speaker 1: to come in from Minnesota. Celtics almost got the win
- 41:12Speaker 1: yesterday as an underdog. They were beating Minnesota by quite
- 41:15Speaker 1: a bit at halftime in the game they had a
- 41:17Speaker 1: double digit lead. Cada came back and had a double
- 41:20Speaker 1: double at halftime. He had he had a double double
- 41:23Speaker 1: in the first half in this game against Minnesota, and
- 41:26Speaker 1: then the Celtics had a horrible third quarter, horrible second half.
- 41:31Speaker 1: They fell behind. They actually came back and I believe
- 41:33Speaker 1: got right back into the game and then still lost.
- 41:35Speaker 1: So after the Celtics put in that effort, I don't
- 41:39Speaker 1: know what they're gonna have left in the tank man
- 41:40Speaker 1: against Cleveland here, difficult spot here. After that, they do
- 41:45Speaker 1: have the Knicks up next, and maybe the Celtics will
- 41:48Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not gonna say they're gonna overlook Cleveland,
- 41:50Speaker 1: but the Celtics did already be Cleveland at home by
- 41:52Speaker 1: twenty points. And the Celtics have not beaten the Knicks yet,
- 41:55Speaker 1: and the Knicks or the team that knocked them out
- 41:57Speaker 1: of the playoffs last year, so they might put more
- 41:59Speaker 1: weight into that Nick game that's coming up on Tuesday.
- 42:02Speaker 1: So I do not like the spot for the Celtics
- 42:04Speaker 1: here really at all. The only thing you could say
- 42:08Speaker 1: is it's Cleveland, so they should get up for the game.
- 42:10Speaker 1: But sometimes that's not an off man. And by the way,
- 42:15Speaker 1: congratulations to Minnesota finally getting a win over a team
- 42:19Speaker 1: with the winning record, and it happens to be the
- 42:20Speaker 1: Boston Celtics, My Boston Celtics, so thanks a lot for
- 42:24Speaker 1: all that. Cleveland is coming off a loss. They are
- 42:27Speaker 1: turning over from a road trip, although there was only
- 42:29Speaker 1: two games, but they've been on the road for almost
- 42:31Speaker 1: a week and they had to go up to Toronto.
- 42:33Speaker 1: But the road trip was bad. They got blown out
- 42:35Speaker 1: by Toronto, lost to Atlanta. It wasn't a significant road
- 42:39Speaker 1: trip as far as like how long it was or anything.
- 42:41Speaker 1: So I think they're gonna show up for this game,
- 42:44Speaker 1: especially because the Celtics embarrassed them in Boston earlier this year.
- 42:48Speaker 1: Cleveland does have to go out on the road again
- 42:50Speaker 1: and play tomorrow against Indiana, but they did just beat Indiana,
- 42:53Speaker 1: so you know which game they're gonna be focused on
- 42:55Speaker 1: to If they put in a ton of effort in
- 42:57Speaker 1: one of these games, it's gonna be the game against
- 42:59Speaker 1: the Celtic. So I would lay the points with Cleveland,
- 43:02Speaker 1: and this one looks like the money is kind of
- 43:04Speaker 1: indicating on the Celtics. Eight to one percent tickets ninety
- 43:07Speaker 1: seven percent of the cash and then the lines down
- 43:09Speaker 1: to seven on Cleveland. Yeah, I don't I don't see
- 43:12Speaker 1: it for the Celtics, man, I would lay it with
- 43:14Speaker 1: Cleveland a little bit of a hesitation because it is
- 43:16Speaker 1: a road trip or turn spot, you know. I don't
- 43:19Speaker 1: love it enough to give it out as a play
- 43:21Speaker 1: or anything, but I would lean to Cleveland. Oh yeah,
- 43:24Speaker 1: I was gonna look at Houston with Durant. Let me
- 43:26Speaker 1: just see what's going on with him here? He is back.
- 43:30Speaker 1: How long has he been back? I haven't even paid attention.
- 43:34Speaker 1: Oh yes, this will be his return. So that's why
- 43:37Speaker 1: the line move there it is. I figured it out.
- 43:39Speaker 1: So Durant returning moved the line like three points. So
- 43:42Speaker 1: now we have another factor in play here that makes
- 43:45Speaker 1: this play even better. That's the reason why we're getting
- 43:47Speaker 1: more value on the Jazz because Durant's coming back in
- 43:51Speaker 1: the line. Just because of that, it's moved that many points.
- 43:54Speaker 1: And again I always talk about a reverse injured player theory.
- 43:57Speaker 1: When that star player comes back, he has to work
- 43:59Speaker 1: his way back back into the lineup. They have to
- 44:01Speaker 1: figure out their roles again. And whatever. Houston's been playing
- 44:04Speaker 1: pretty well without him too, So that makes it an
- 44:07Speaker 1: even more negative spot in my opinion for Houston in
- 44:10Speaker 1: that first game that he comes back. So hey, yeah,
- 44:13Speaker 1: let's add that to the mix. Toronto at the Knicks,
- 44:16Speaker 1: this is gonna be an interesting game. Man. Toronto's been
- 44:19Speaker 1: really hot, but we'll talk about that in a second.
- 44:21Speaker 1: The Knicks, they're staying at home. They had a return
- 44:24Speaker 1: home spot in the last game and they still won
- 44:26Speaker 1: against Milwaukee because that was there was one negative for
- 44:30Speaker 1: Milwaukee in that game, and that was that Giannis was
- 44:32Speaker 1: returning from a road from an injury. And I know
- 44:35Speaker 1: how weird that sounds, but when it's a player returns
- 44:39Speaker 1: from injury, man that first game again, it throws a
- 44:42Speaker 1: wrench into everything. So sometimes you want to fade that team.
- 44:45Speaker 1: And the Knicks were able to just barely cover by
- 44:47Speaker 1: like a half point in that game. I think they'll
- 44:50Speaker 1: be focused on Toronto though. I mean, Toronto's been on fire,
- 44:53Speaker 1: so I do think the Knicks will focus on Toronto here.
- 44:56Speaker 1: Toronto maybe a difficult spot for them because they just
- 44:59Speaker 1: took a loss yesterday in overtime. I know it was
- 45:02Speaker 1: against a bad Charlotte team, but Toronto hadn't lost since
- 45:05Speaker 1: early in November. And when you're on a huge wind
- 45:07Speaker 1: streak like that and you lose that wind streak, I
- 45:10Speaker 1: talk about it a lot of times. It will hang
- 45:11Speaker 1: you over into the next game. Now, I think they
- 45:14Speaker 1: should get up for a game against the Knicks. But
- 45:16Speaker 1: still I think the Knicks are probably the right side here.
- 45:19Speaker 1: They're up to a seven and a half point favor
- 45:21Speaker 1: of the money looks like it's coming back on Toronto.
- 45:24Speaker 1: Fifty two tickets on the Knicks, fifty six percent of the
- 45:27Speaker 1: cash on Toronto. I would lean towards the Knicks in
- 45:30Speaker 1: that one. All right, what else? I was gonna say
- 45:36Speaker 1: one more thing? I forget what it was now though,
- 45:41Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's right. For Durant. Was was he actually
- 45:45Speaker 1: injured or was it a personal outage? I don't even
- 45:49Speaker 1: I don't remember. I get him confused with James Harden sometimes. Anyway,
- 45:53Speaker 1: Atlanta at Philadelphia, this will be my other play. We're
- 45:56Speaker 1: gonna go with the Philadelphia seventy six ers on the
- 45:58Speaker 1: money line. We're gonna fade Atlanta in this spot. I
- 46:02Speaker 1: know the Sixers have a bunch of injuries, but the
- 46:05Speaker 1: fact that embat is out, I don't even think that's
- 46:07Speaker 1: that bad. I mean, his knee is wrecked, so I
- 46:09Speaker 1: don't know how much of an improvement he really brings
- 46:11Speaker 1: to this Philadelphia team. Atlanta, they're in a bad spot
- 46:15Speaker 1: in my opinion. They just beat Cleveland, huge win for them.
- 46:18Speaker 1: Now they're going out on the road to face this
- 46:19Speaker 1: Philly team. It's been very up and down, and tomorrow
- 46:23Speaker 1: Atlanta has to play Detroit, who beat Atlanta at home
- 46:26Speaker 1: on November eighteenth. So I think that's a bigger game
- 46:29Speaker 1: for a bunch of reasons. I mean, Detroit being one
- 46:32Speaker 1: of the like I think they still have the top
- 46:33Speaker 1: record in the conference, and they just beat Atlanta in Atlanta,
- 46:38Speaker 1: so it's gonna be a big deal that game. So
- 46:40Speaker 1: I think if Atlanta's gonna put a bunch of focus
- 46:42Speaker 1: on one of these two games on the back to back,
- 46:44Speaker 1: it's gonna be the Detroit game. So I don't like this, man.
- 46:49Speaker 1: I think it's a bad spot. I think it's a
- 46:50Speaker 1: sandwich spot Philadelphia. Again, they've been up and down, so
- 46:54Speaker 1: I just don't think they're a team that really gains
- 46:55Speaker 1: much attention right now. They're only ten and eight. They're bad.
- 46:58Speaker 1: Last year Philadelphia the gonna win over Brooklyn They're coming
- 47:02Speaker 1: back home from that single game trip to Brooklyn. Not
- 47:04Speaker 1: a big deal, just going to New York getting the
- 47:07Speaker 1: job done, beating a bad Brooklyn team. But that will
- 47:09Speaker 1: do is break their losing momentum because they had a
- 47:12Speaker 1: two game loss Street before that, So I think that
- 47:13Speaker 1: will give them some that'll give them some momentum coming
- 47:18Speaker 1: into this one. I like that. And their game next
- 47:20Speaker 1: is against Washington, so they don't have any look ahead
- 47:23Speaker 1: spot here, so I like that they should be focused
- 47:25Speaker 1: on this Atlanta team that's been pretty good as of
- 47:28Speaker 1: late and has Trey youngback, so they're playing well. Yes,
- 47:31Speaker 1: there are a bunch of injuries to be aware of.
- 47:33Speaker 1: Joel Embiid is out for Philadelphia. Like I said, who cares? Again,
- 47:38Speaker 1: I just don't really think that that's that huge of
- 47:41Speaker 1: a deal at this point. Man. He's been out since
- 47:43Speaker 1: November eighth anyway, so it's not really affecting the day
- 47:46Speaker 1: to day here, you know what I mean. Like they're
- 47:47Speaker 1: used to playing without him, and his knee sucks, so
- 47:50Speaker 1: it doesn't even matter. Paul George is playing, Ubray is out.
- 47:56Speaker 1: Ubra is like the one big injury here, but he's
- 48:00Speaker 1: not like the main guy on this team, and hopefully
- 48:03Speaker 1: for our purposes, Edgecomb will come back. Even though if
- 48:06Speaker 1: he does come back, I guess it's a reverse injured
- 48:08Speaker 1: player type of thing. But he's not their star player.
- 48:11Speaker 1: I mean, he's a rookie, but he has a nice
- 48:13Speaker 1: role on this team, and I think it will be
- 48:15Speaker 1: helpful to have him get back in the line. If
- 48:18Speaker 1: he hasn't played since November twentieth, it looks like he's
- 48:21Speaker 1: trending in the right direction and he might play today.
- 48:23Speaker 1: He's questionable right now, so if he plays, I like
- 48:28Speaker 1: it either way. Really, if he plays, I'm not gonna
- 48:30Speaker 1: say that you should not play Philadelphi because I just
- 48:32Speaker 1: don't think it's just Edgecomb. So I don't think it's
- 48:35Speaker 1: gonna affect the line. It looks like the market doesn't agree,
- 48:38Speaker 1: but sixty percent of tickets only fifty five percent of
- 48:41Speaker 1: the cash on Philly market not agreeing with me right now,
- 48:44Speaker 1: But I agree with me. So that's what I'm doing here,
- 48:47Speaker 1: fading the market read at least for now. But again,
- 48:50Speaker 1: this isn't until the evening, so it is possible that
- 48:52Speaker 1: this market shifts to me in my direction, because again
- 48:55Speaker 1: it's only a five percent difference between the cash and
- 48:58Speaker 1: the tickets right now. So when it's that insignificant, sometimes
- 49:02Speaker 1: we'll see it change, like we already see the money
- 49:04Speaker 1: shifting towards the Knicks here. So again I'm gonna go
- 49:07Speaker 1: with my red on this game. And there's a reason
- 49:10Speaker 1: why the Sixers are favored too, Like, it looks way
- 49:13Speaker 1: too easy to play Atlanta, right. You got a team
- 49:15Speaker 1: it's twelve and eight and they've been good on the
- 49:17Speaker 1: road to eight and four against the team it's ten
- 49:19Speaker 1: and eight. But the ten and eight teams favored. I mean,
- 49:21Speaker 1: it looks a little bit strange, so especially because some
- 49:24Speaker 1: of Atlanta's losses came without Trey Young. All right, okay
- 49:28Speaker 1: See is at Portland. Okay See did get their revenge
- 49:31Speaker 1: against Portland. Portland was the only team to beat them.
- 49:33Speaker 1: Although maybe okay See will still want to beat them
- 49:36Speaker 1: in Portland because that is where that happens, So maybe
- 49:39Speaker 1: okay See will still have that in their mind here.
- 49:42Speaker 1: But they did get their revenge against Portland. We won
- 49:44Speaker 1: with that one on the show. I mean, Oklahoma City
- 49:47Speaker 1: is a dominant team. They're on a roll right now.
- 49:49Speaker 1: They just had a close win over Phoenix where Oklahoma
- 49:52Speaker 1: City barely covered at home, so maybe okay See will
- 49:55Speaker 1: be more focus after that go on the road here,
- 49:58Speaker 1: Usually your focus to on a road trip, But because
- 50:01Speaker 1: they did just crush Portland on last Sunday, maybe they
- 50:04Speaker 1: will kind of overlook them. With Golden State up next,
- 50:08Speaker 1: I could kind of see this game going either way. Man.
- 50:10Speaker 1: And for Portland, they're without Drew Holiday now. They had
- 50:14Speaker 1: Holiday in the lineup back when they beat okay See
- 50:17Speaker 1: the first time they beat them. He was not in
- 50:20Speaker 1: the lineup when they lost to OKC. In that one.
- 50:24Speaker 1: Portland did just lose in the return home spot to
- 50:27Speaker 1: San Antonio, So they're in a positive spot now because
- 50:30Speaker 1: when you return home again you can have distractions coming
- 50:33Speaker 1: into play. They lost the game, and when that happens,
- 50:35Speaker 1: usually you play better in the next game. They've had
- 50:38Speaker 1: a bunch of days off and this is their last
- 50:41Speaker 1: game in the home stand, so I expect them to
- 50:42Speaker 1: be focused. So overall, yes, I duel into Portland in
- 50:46Speaker 1: this game. Now, for Portland, it's interesting because that first
- 50:51Speaker 1: game where they pulled off the upset over OKAC, they
- 50:53Speaker 1: were only four and a half point underdogs, and now
- 50:56Speaker 1: basically just because they don't have holiday, and I guess
- 50:59Speaker 1: recently bias. Look at the number now, it's eleven and
- 51:02Speaker 1: a half, dude, I mean that. I'm not saying that
- 51:05Speaker 1: four and a half, you know, was an appropriate line
- 51:08Speaker 1: in that first game of the Playzers won the game outright,
- 51:11Speaker 1: But the fact that it's eleven and a half now
- 51:13Speaker 1: it's seven points different from that, Like, have we really
- 51:17Speaker 1: seen enough between then and now to adjust this line
- 51:19Speaker 1: seven points? I don't really think so. So I think
- 51:22Speaker 1: the line value is on the Portland side here. The
- 51:25Speaker 1: money seems to already kind of be coming in that way.
- 51:27Speaker 1: It's down for twelve to eleven and a half. Thunder,
- 51:29Speaker 1: for what it's worth, were like a fifteen and a
- 51:31Speaker 1: half point favorite when we laid the points with them
- 51:33Speaker 1: at home. So I mean that number is more in
- 51:36Speaker 1: line with this number because you probably give each team
- 51:39Speaker 1: at most like maybe two for home court, probably really
- 51:41Speaker 1: less than that fifty three percent to take us fifty
- 51:44Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on the thunder overall, I
- 51:46Speaker 1: would lean towards taking the points of Portland in that one.
- 51:49Speaker 1: San Antonio is at Minnesota. Minnesota just had the comeback
- 51:53Speaker 1: and beat my boss in Celtics yesterday they're staying at home,
- 51:56Speaker 1: but they aren't a back to back, and they did
- 51:58Speaker 1: play a big game against the game before that, although
- 52:01Speaker 1: it was on Wednesday, but still they played two big
- 52:04Speaker 1: games in a row, so letdown could come into play
- 52:07Speaker 1: here from Minnesota here, Man and San Antonio still qualifies
- 52:11Speaker 1: as a winning team, and we know Minnesota only has
- 52:13Speaker 1: one win against the winning team, although they did get
- 52:16Speaker 1: that monkey off their back it was yesterday. But San
- 52:18Speaker 1: Antonio is not in a good spot either. I mean,
- 52:20Speaker 1: they just beat Denver two days ago on the road,
- 52:23Speaker 1: is a huge underdog they pulled off the upset. So
- 52:25Speaker 1: both teams here are in bad spots. So I can't
- 52:29Speaker 1: really pick a side in this game in my opinion.
- 52:31Speaker 1: But looking at the market, we have seventy three percent
- 52:35Speaker 1: take as ninety percent of the cash on the t Wolves.
- 52:37Speaker 1: They're down from four to three and a half here.
- 52:40Speaker 1: I mean, maybe it does make sense to lean towards
- 52:42Speaker 1: Minnesota though, because I think the letdown spot is a
- 52:45Speaker 1: pretty big deal for the Spurs here. I don't know, man, like,
- 52:51Speaker 1: when you beat when you beat sorry the Nuggets, not okay,
- 52:54Speaker 1: see the Nuggets in Denver. I mean that is a
- 52:56Speaker 1: pretty big deal the over to me makes so. And
- 53:00Speaker 1: you see two teams that look like they might be
- 53:03Speaker 1: a little bit tired, they might not be totally focused here.
- 53:06Speaker 1: I do think the over makes sense. I think it
- 53:08Speaker 1: affects the defense, even though it affects shooting to some
- 53:11Speaker 1: degree as well. Nine percent take us nine to nine
- 53:13Speaker 1: percent of the catch on the over. The totals up
- 53:15Speaker 1: to two thirty four and a half. I haven't been
- 53:17Speaker 1: checking to see how I do with these like over opinions,
- 53:20Speaker 1: but that would be my opinion. In that game, Memphis
- 53:24Speaker 1: is at Sacramento. This is an ugly game, although Memphis
- 53:27Speaker 1: has been playing a bit better recently, probably because because
- 53:30Speaker 1: they don't have Morand and now the team like knows
- 53:33Speaker 1: that they're moving forward without him basically, so that's actually
- 53:36Speaker 1: improved their chemistry. But I mean, hold your horses a
- 53:41Speaker 1: little bit, because Memphis' recent wins were against Sacramento, Dallas,
- 53:45Speaker 1: New Orleans, and LA the Clippers, not the Lakers, and
- 53:49Speaker 1: they're playing Sacramento again here. They did beat Sacramento by
- 53:52Speaker 1: forty one points the last time they played them in Memphis,
- 53:55Speaker 1: so Sacramento probably remembers that Memphis might just kind of
- 53:59Speaker 1: Overlooksack because they did just annihilate them like that. So
- 54:03Speaker 1: the game probably means a little bit more to Sacramento here.
- 54:06Speaker 1: Sacramento coming out of a loss in Utah, coming back
- 54:09Speaker 1: home from that it was a single game road trip.
- 54:11Speaker 1: I think they will be focused on this, even though
- 54:13Speaker 1: they have Houston NEXTUS not until Wednesday, and that was
- 54:16Speaker 1: an embarrassing loss when they played at Memphis. So I
- 54:19Speaker 1: would lean to the Kings in this one. The money
- 54:22Speaker 1: seems to agree with me on this one also, given
- 54:24Speaker 1: what the team's records look like now, it looks too
- 54:26Speaker 1: easy to lay the points of the Grizzlies. But do
- 54:29Speaker 1: they really deserve to be a three point favorite on
- 54:31Speaker 1: the road here? I'm not sure that they do, even
- 54:34Speaker 1: though the Kings have been awful, especially without sabonas sixty
- 54:38Speaker 1: one percent of tickets on the Grizzlies, seventy four percent
- 54:40Speaker 1: of the cash on the King's money coming in on
- 54:42Speaker 1: the Kings. I don't disagree with that one. And then
- 54:45Speaker 1: we have a great matchup to finish it off with
- 54:48Speaker 1: the Pelicans that the Lakers come on. Man, Pelicans, even
- 54:52Speaker 1: with Zion back, I think he is still back right now,
- 54:54Speaker 1: they've been a struggling team, man, and they just played
- 54:57Speaker 1: pretty competitively last night against Golden State. So they're on
- 55:02Speaker 1: a back to back having just played well against Golden State,
- 55:04Speaker 1: and now they have to play the Lakers. Doesn't look
- 55:07Speaker 1: like a great spot, man. They don't have rest. The
- 55:09Speaker 1: Lakers do have rest coming into this one. They haven't
- 55:11Speaker 1: played since Friday, and they did an easy win over Dallas.
- 55:14Speaker 1: They haven't really had to step up in class for
- 55:17Speaker 1: a while now, so the Lakers are just coasting. I
- 55:20Speaker 1: kind of expect the Lakers to win this game quite easily.
- 55:23Speaker 1: So if I was gonna play this game, I would
- 55:25Speaker 1: lay it with the Lakers. They're up to a fifteen
- 55:28Speaker 1: point favorite, though eighty six percent of tickets ninety five
- 55:30Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. Don't have much else
- 55:34Speaker 1: to say about it. The last time, I'm agreed with
- 55:37Speaker 1: laying the points of the Lakers, though they blew out
- 55:39Speaker 1: the Clippers basically at home, so I leaned to the
- 55:42Speaker 1: Lakers in that in that particular one. So I was
- 55:44Speaker 1: right about that, all right, And then we do have NFL.
- 55:47Speaker 1: I will go to my final NFL market reads here
- 55:50Speaker 1: and then I will give you the best bets again.
- 55:53Speaker 1: These final market reads me, and I mean, well, I
- 55:55Speaker 1: don't know if they're final because I'm still gonna be
- 55:57Speaker 1: watching the market here, but we have more of the
- 55:59Speaker 1: cash still on the And if you watch my ranting
- 56:02Speaker 1: horrific show last night, I disagreed with the Colts side there,
- 56:06Speaker 1: but it's gonna be due. My pickham is already off
- 56:09Speaker 1: to a horrific start this weekend. I don't even know,
- 56:11Speaker 1: like it's gonna be a horrible week for me, Like
- 56:13Speaker 1: I'm just resigned to that at this point, Like I
- 56:15Speaker 1: kind of lean to the Texans in this game, but
- 56:16Speaker 1: I still don't know what I want to do with it.
- 56:20Speaker 1: The Buccaneers, I still lean to the Bucks, and I
- 56:23Speaker 1: just don't understand why you're getting so much line value
- 56:26Speaker 1: on them with Baker Mayfield back, Like is it just
- 56:28Speaker 1: because people question like how injured he is or something?
- 56:31Speaker 1: Make sure he is playing, but well not back. He
- 56:33Speaker 1: hasn't been out really except that he missed the second
- 56:36Speaker 1: half of the game against the Rams. But again, the
- 56:38Speaker 1: Buccaneers look so bad on that Sunday night game. They
- 56:40Speaker 1: are getting the cash though, even though they are public
- 56:42Speaker 1: as well. But my opinion in that game is the
- 56:44Speaker 1: Buccaneers I mean, if Baker Mayfield is out, then you
- 56:48Speaker 1: get the injured player theory coming into play. I think
- 56:50Speaker 1: he is playing, but you're still getting the Buccaneers at
- 56:53Speaker 1: a discount of price. I think just because they looked
- 56:55Speaker 1: so terrible last week. But half of the game Baker
- 56:58Speaker 1: Mayfield wasn't even there, So if he's playing, I think
- 57:01Speaker 1: it still makes sense to look in their direction. I
- 57:04Speaker 1: do still agree with taking the points of the Titans.
- 57:06Speaker 1: The Jags are public and there's only a one percentage
- 57:08Speaker 1: cash percentage difference right now, so probably that's correct. Same
- 57:12Speaker 1: really with the Rams Panthers. I would only take the
- 57:14Speaker 1: points of the Panther's eighty one percent of tickets eighty
- 57:17Speaker 1: three percent of the cash on the Rams for now.
- 57:19Speaker 1: But you're fading the public and there's not a huge
- 57:21Speaker 1: cash disparity there and laying double digits on the road
- 57:24Speaker 1: when I think is not the best spot for the Rams.
- 57:26Speaker 1: No thank you. I would still take the points of
- 57:28Speaker 1: the Saints against Miami. Miami is in a bad spot
- 57:32Speaker 1: where they didn't have a buye at a very good
- 57:34Speaker 1: time in my opinion, eighty two percent of tickets, eighty
- 57:37Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on the Dolphins. The money
- 57:40Speaker 1: kind of on the Dolphins side right now, but I
- 57:41Speaker 1: don't agree with that, and I don't think I'm gonna
- 57:43Speaker 1: change my opinion on that when I like the Saints
- 57:45Speaker 1: plus the points. Also, the Saints, they like they turned
- 57:49Speaker 1: the ball over I think, multiple times in Atlanta territory
- 57:53Speaker 1: last week, so it made the game look way worse.
- 57:55Speaker 1: I think they might have outgained Atlanta in that game,
- 57:57Speaker 1: but I would have to go look, speaking of Atlanta,
- 57:59Speaker 1: the money is coming in on them, and that is
- 58:01Speaker 1: kind of a significant cash difference. Even though I was
- 58:03Speaker 1: kind of leaning towards the Jets plus the points in
- 58:06Speaker 1: that game, especially because it's just a low to total.
- 58:09Speaker 1: Both these teams are just ugly, and I just at
- 58:11Speaker 1: this point, I just don't really have faith in Kirk Cousins.
- 58:13Speaker 1: So I don't know. The Jets, by the way, are
- 58:16Speaker 1: still going with Tyrod Taylor. I don't think it really
- 58:18Speaker 1: matters between him and Justin Fields. But this one is
- 58:21Speaker 1: a very difficult game for me to read, Like I
- 58:23Speaker 1: kind of want to lean towards taking it with the Jets,
- 58:26Speaker 1: but yeah, that's difficult. Also, the Niners look like they're
- 58:29Speaker 1: getting the cash as well, even though I was leaning
- 58:31Speaker 1: towards taking the points with Cleveland, I definitely don't truss
- 58:35Speaker 1: Suit or Sanders, so I do like the Browns defense,
- 58:38Speaker 1: and I don't love the spot for the Niners, so
- 58:41Speaker 1: that's a difficult read as well. I would still lean
- 58:44Speaker 1: towards taking the points of the Vikings against the Seahawks,
- 58:47Speaker 1: even though we have basically the completely unknown Brosmer starting
- 58:51Speaker 1: for the Vikings here. He can't possibly be worse than
- 58:53Speaker 1: what Macarth they did in the last game, so I
- 58:56Speaker 1: don't see that being a downgrade to the point where
- 58:59Speaker 1: the Seahawks should be lay twelve points in this game.
- 59:01Speaker 1: I would look towards taking the points there. I still
- 59:04Speaker 1: like the Buffalo Bills, and I don't understand why the
- 59:07Speaker 1: money looks like it's disagreeing with them. You got a
- 59:09Speaker 1: reverse injured player spot in play here with Rogers coming
- 59:12Speaker 1: back for the Steelers. The Bills have that extra time
- 59:15Speaker 1: off coming off of a loss on Thursday, even though
- 59:17Speaker 1: it was against a punishing defense. But no, I definitely
- 59:20Speaker 1: lean towards the Bills in that one, and that one
- 59:23Speaker 1: is probably gonna be the one that I add to
- 59:25Speaker 1: my pick five because we'll have to figure it out
- 59:28Speaker 1: because if I pick five, I already lost on the Baltimore one.
- 59:31Speaker 1: I'm gonna have the two plays that I give out
- 59:32Speaker 1: here are gonna be in that entry for me, and
- 59:36Speaker 1: then I have to choose two more games, and highly
- 59:38Speaker 1: likely one of them is going to be the Bills,
- 59:40Speaker 1: so pray for me. I still agree with the Chargers.
- 59:43Speaker 1: I think they had to buy at a great time
- 59:45Speaker 1: after just a disgusting loss, so I would still lay
- 59:49Speaker 1: the points of the Chargers. The cash does look like
- 59:51Speaker 1: it's on that side, even though the public. Dude, this
- 59:53Speaker 1: is a bad week where it looks like the public
- 59:55Speaker 1: might get a lot of these games right, which I
- 59:57Speaker 1: don't love. One where the market read does look very
- 1:00:00Speaker 1: strong in my favor is well, we'll get to my
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: two plays here. I'll reiterate It'll reiterate them one more time.
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: Is the Washington side. I know it says six and
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: a half here now, but you might really be able
- 1:00:09Speaker 1: to get seven on this. The game isn't until tonight,
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: so again, this is the This is why you want
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: to have as many books as possible, and why you
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: want to keep watching the market find a seven. I
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: would say pick it off, especially if you get it
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: at like minus one fifteen or better plus seven on Washington,
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: I would still probably take the six and a half,
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: but I think you will be able to get seven
- 1:00:30Speaker 1: because this thing is up to six and a half
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: with juice. The public is all over Denver, and much
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: less of the cash is and it's a low to
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: odal with money looking towards the under here. So even
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: though yes, the Broncos normally would be correlated to an
- 1:00:42Speaker 1: under because they're the team that plays defense, but in
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: this case asking the defense to lay points, the defense
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: hopefully is not going to be scoring a lot of
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: points in this one, because that would screw us if
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: that was the case. But usually the defense is not
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: gonna be what's scoring your points. That's the offense, and
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: the Broncos offense is still no good. And then of
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: course I did give out a play on the Monday
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: night game, which we'll talk about again tomorrow. But we're
- 1:01:04Speaker 1: gonna lay the points of the Patriots in that one. Uh,
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: they look like a public side, But right now the
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: cash percentage is right in line with the the ticket percentage.
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: So we'll see, but hopefully my situation will read is
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: right on that one man, there are a lot of
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: factors in that one. So those are the plays, and
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: then once again the other plays Sayer Texas San Antonio
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: plus the points in college basketball, Utah Jazz plus the
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: points in NBA and Philadelphia seventy six ers money line
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: in the NBA. That's gonna do it, man. Yeah, hopefully
- 1:01:38Speaker 1: we have a good day for once. We need to
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: bounce back. I'm not happy. Learn a tone on Twitter,
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: Learn it tone on Instagram, like, subscribe to the show here,
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: give me some good comments whatever. Yeah, we're on audio
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: as well. Give me a good review over there on
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: Spotify and Apple. Covered in You is my uke channel,
- 1:01:55Speaker 1: so you can check that out as well. Patreon dot com,
- 1:01:58Speaker 1: slash learn to toad for you content that I don't
- 1:02:00Speaker 1: keep updated, and you can get requests that I actually
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: will do, but it will take me a while to
- 1:02:06Speaker 1: do it unless it's something that I really can decide
- 1:02:08Speaker 1: that I can't do. But I can do most things hopefully.
- 1:02:13Speaker 1: And then be on the lookout for Loser Cast, which
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: will be in the new podcast. And I'm on with
- 1:02:17Speaker 1: a panel of five dudes and I don't even know
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: who forty percent of them are. But if you guys,
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: watch Tower gang. You know me, you know Tyler, and
- 1:02:25Speaker 1: if you're in that you know sphere, then you know Layton.
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: Who's Layton is the guy that's like, come up with this.
- 1:02:30Speaker 1: He's the conceptualizer. He's the guy that created the podcast.
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: So and he's got his other podcast, Outlawed Thoughts, which
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: you can check out to. I've been on that show
- 1:02:39Speaker 1: probably at least three times. But yeah, that'll be a
- 1:02:43Speaker 1: show that will be kind of a chaotic, I don't know,
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: comedy panel type of thing with maybe some format to it.
- 1:02:51Speaker 1: We'll see how that goes. I don't know when the
- 1:02:54Speaker 1: first episode is gonna be, but it'll be soon. Thank you.
- 1:02:57Speaker 1: I appreciate it as well. Yes, thank you, Pinz. Yes,
- 1:03:03Speaker 1: I'm angry about it, even though for me, dude, I'm
- 1:03:07Speaker 1: putting my you know, my name out there, like I'm
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: putting my opinions out there, like these are my opinions
- 1:03:12Speaker 1: and I want to be right about them. I'm trying
- 1:03:14Speaker 1: to give out winners here, like my my name is
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: on these things. So like, yeah, I mean that alone
- 1:03:20Speaker 1: makes me disgusted when I take losses like that, even
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: though it's even worse when I actually am putting money
- 1:03:25Speaker 1: on it. Which again I'm not doing, at least until
- 1:03:27Speaker 1: I free up some of my money so I could
- 1:03:29Speaker 1: bankroll it. But yeah, we'll see. I mean, I may
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: get back to it because I've been doing it for
- 1:03:35Speaker 1: a long time, but yeah, either way, I get really
- 1:03:38Speaker 1: really angry about it. Thank you guys for hanging out.
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: I may be back with a weird special that nobody's
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: gonna care about, but it'll be filling out my college
- 1:03:49Speaker 1: women's volleyball bracket. The bracket is out as of today,
- 1:03:54Speaker 1: I think, and I'm not I don't know anything about
- 1:03:56Speaker 1: any of the teams. I filled one out last year
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: and I did not get the champion, right I remember that.
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: I think my champion got to the final four and
- 1:04:02Speaker 1: then lost. I'm gonna fill it out like live, probably
- 1:04:06Speaker 1: on a stream or I know nothing about the teams.
- 1:04:09Speaker 1: I like to watch women play play volleyball, though, although
- 1:04:12Speaker 1: this isn't beach volleyball, this is like a renup volleyball,
- 1:04:15Speaker 1: but still still not bad. You know, Beach is just
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: is just more awesome. But yeah, I'll fill it out
- 1:04:24Speaker 1: and I'll be looking at the odds and not really
- 1:04:26Speaker 1: have much else to go on besides the odds and
- 1:04:29Speaker 1: try to figure it out based on like we're the
- 1:04:31Speaker 1: public perception is it's gonna be ridiculous and difficult to do,
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: but I'll do it. If you guys want to hang
- 1:04:37Speaker 1: out for that, I might do it tonight, So we'll see,
- 1:04:39Speaker 1: and then we'll figure out what I'm gonna do with
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: the bulls, because I might actually do a Bowl special
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: ish or maybe just reacting to the the bowl matchups.
- 1:04:49Speaker 1: In the playoff, I will do a playoff bracket special
- 1:04:52Speaker 1: like I did last year for the college football playoffs,
- 1:04:54Speaker 1: although the those playoffs are not very interesting because they're
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: only twelve teams and it's like so some of those
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: are just complete mismatches in the first round with the
- 1:05:02Speaker 1: way it sets up, but there's gonna be some huge
- 1:05:05Speaker 1: upset at some point that happens in that thing. Who
- 1:05:07Speaker 1: knows when it's gonna be. Last year that did not
- 1:05:09Speaker 1: really happen, but we'll see, so I'll probably do that
- 1:05:12Speaker 1: as well. I'll probably do like a I might do
- 1:05:14Speaker 1: like a Bowl reaction special to where I just react
- 1:05:17Speaker 1: to because that's gonna be next Sunday, I think, where
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: all the bulls come out and I'll give out some
- 1:05:22Speaker 1: like early opinions or maybe like you want to get
- 1:05:24Speaker 1: on the line before it like moves completely because typically
- 1:05:27Speaker 1: I just talk about the bulls as they get played,
- 1:05:29Speaker 1: because it's a lot easier to just talk about a
- 1:05:32Speaker 1: few balls per day, even though most you'll get like
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: six or seven on like the heaviest days. But yeah,
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: all right, we'll see, but that'll do it for now,
- 1:05:43Speaker 1: Thanks guys, piece for now.