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Iran at the Crossroads: Future Challenges and Opportunities · Look Forward

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Hello, my name's Andy Critchlow.
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Uh, welcome everyone to this episode of the Look Forward Podcast.
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My name's Andy Critchlow.
1:13
I'm head of news at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
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And on this episode, we are gonna look at the exciting and interesting
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and fascinating subjects of Iran and what the future holds for Iran.
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A huge Middle East country, huge population and ancient history.
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Dating back thousands and thousands of years in terms of its civilization,
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uh, and an incredibly influential yet troubled country in the Middle East.
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And to discuss this subject, I'm actually absolutely privileged to be joined by.
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A global authority, not just on Iran, but also on the region as a whole.
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Um, professor Anoush Eteshami, one of the world's leading experts on the region.
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It's geopolitics, but also Iranian affairs.
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Uh, Anoush is Professor of International relations, uh, Durham University.
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Um, where he also holds the Nassar al Mohamed al Sabah chair and
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directs the university's program on regional politics and security.
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And also, um, uh, a little secret here is Anoush is someone that I owe
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a large part of my career to, um, because you were my professor and I
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did my masters in Middle East politics, uh, Durham University many moons ago.
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Um, and I can certainly vouch that, uh, there is no better.
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Um.
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Expert that we could have to talk about this subject and many others.
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Anoush, welcome
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Andy.
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Thank you so much for the invitation, but also for your very warm comment.
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I have to say, having ambassadors like you out there definitely
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puts us in very good light.
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Ah, well, we, we, we try our best.
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Um, so, uh, you know, Iran, it's fair to say.
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It's in a, a difficult position after this year.
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So, you know, we, we now have what looks like a peace agreement in, in Gaza.
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Um, um, but many of Iran's proxies in the region have, um.
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You know, to the point, almost ceased to exist.
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Hezbollah is a, a shadow of its former self in Lebanon.
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Uh, Hamas very much now in Gaza.
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Iran's regional, um, strategy has been unpicked.
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It's found itself, you know, attacked, bombed, um, involved in
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a war with, with, you know, both Israel and the US earlier this year.
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Um.
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I guess, where does Iran go from here?
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What does 2026 kind of, how do you, how, how do they dig
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themselves out of this hole?
3:40
Thanks, Andy.
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So I, I think the problem that Iran faces predates the last 12 months,
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there's actually a lot more, a lot more going wrong with Iran that have.
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Bubble to the surface as a consequence of the direct confrontations with
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Israel and the United States.
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Um, and of course you've highlighted many of the external structural problem
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problems Iran has had to confront since, uh, Hamas terrorist attacks.
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But prior to that, you know, Iran was, um, a deep.
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Deep trouble economically at home.
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It was facing a major crisis of legitimacy since 2022, at the
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very least, but it predates that.
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Um, and it was struggling to cope with sanctions, not just before Trump
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2.0, but even before then, Andy, so it was facing a multitude of crises.
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The Russian engagement, the war in Ukraine left much of the heavy lifting
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of Bashar Assad in Syria to Iran.
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So Iran was devoting more and more resources to that particular, uh,
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conflict that it was, you know.
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Iran after was the patron of Bashar al-Assad had been for so long, um, and,
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and so it was struggling to manage that.
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It was struggling with this economy.
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It was struggling with the political dynamics at home, and it was also very
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mindful of conversations beginning to be heard about Abraham Accords 2.0
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that might well include Saudi Arabia.
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Becoming, becoming, uh, you know, the, the latest country to
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establish relations with Israel.
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So it was facing a series of domestic.
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Regional and broader external international problems.
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To be fair, it had managed to consolidate relations with China.
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It had developed a very close military relationship with Russia,
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but its isolation was profound even before Hamas', uh, attacks.
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But as you rightly point to that, that really changed
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everything actually because it.
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Eventually, you know, by last September, it eventually dismantled virtually all
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of Iran's grand strategy in the region of survival, of force projection of the
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tools for, its, for its, um, territorial, uh, sovereignty and, and security as well.
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Hamas basically did Israel, the biggest favor it could when he came to Iran
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in terms of providing Israel with the best, best opportunity to take Iran
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on directly, while also unpicking the proxies that it spent millions of dollars.
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Andy, over the last 30, 40 years, depending which of these
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proxies you're looking at.
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For political training, for military training, for arming and so on.
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So all of that in a matter of two years, went up in smoke.
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It, it's a staggering decline.
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And, and sort of as you, you said, you know, uh, the, the, the, the
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strategy, you know, collapsed.
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If you look at the economy, I mean, how bad have things got in in, in Iran?
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I mean, we hear about inflation, of course.
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Oil prices aren't.
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Probably where the Iranians would want them to be, but also
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Iran can't openly sell a lot of its oil because of sanctions.
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Uh, so, uh, so you know, in, in, in the Gulf, you know, when you look around
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Andy, as I'm sure you do frequently, uh, you can see that the, the three countries
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which are still, if you like, mono commodity, are Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait.
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The rest.
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Moving rapidly on trying to diversify and put the hydrocarbons to very
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different use, and they're building relationships with the West as much
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as with India and China in particular on the strategy of diversification.
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Iran is left way behind in the slow lane when it comes in, in, in looking
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at that kind of, um, comparison, um, Iraq rightly depends on it's oil
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income to try and build, you know, 40 years of destruction, uh, as it faced.
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Kuwait is only now waking up to a post hydrocarbons world.
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Iran has really no option.
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It remains, it.
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Its industrial base is decrepit.
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Uh, it's weak.
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It's uncompetitive, uncompetitive.
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Is inefficient and it has not really modernized in the way that
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you look at any other country of its size and, and economic weight.
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And let's, let's just look at Turkey next door, for example,
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as an as, as a way of comparison.
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Similar size, similar economies, and so on.
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But really there is no comparison between the two.
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So.
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So it has, it has fallen behind through corruption, through inefficiency,
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through mismanagement, and through ideological blood, uh, uh, mind,
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uh, uh, mindedness where it has just never managed to see through the fog.
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A, a better future.
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Result of that, of course, is 56% inflation that the
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state acknowledges Andy.
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We know that when you, when you start picking up commodities, food products,
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for example and so on, inflation is even higher when you look at Iran's imports,
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um, they're strangled by the sanctions.
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So medicines are expensive and scarce.
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Increasingly, uh, high tech.
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Products are smuggled in thanks to the revolutionary guard and
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so on, but there is no open flow of goods in and exports out.
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So you mentioned oil.
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So Iran's, Iran's oil exports barely keeps up with Iraqs, for example.
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This is.
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Fantastic in terms of the, the, the comparison where Iraq hardly
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had an oil industry in 2003.
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Um, and yet now China and now also Western oil companies, as you know,
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are pouring money into development of Iraqi infrastructure, not just
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in the South, but now we know in the Kurdish regions as well.
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And the latest arrangement between the KRI, the Kurdish Regional, uh, government,
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and Turkey means that actually, uh.
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Access to the European markets thanks to this relationship is going to expand.
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So for Iran, its exports remain limited.
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It has to give on a regular basis, five to $6 a barrel discount for its China
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focused, uh, China oriented exports.
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When you look at the, the, the amount of oil that Iran can ship, the price
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that is now having to charge below Russia's exports in order to maintain
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an agile competition and in return, not being able to get that money
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in to invest it for development, then you can see that actually we
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talk about structural problems.
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This is as a existential problem.
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No country is so.
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Come of emasculated where it exports stuff, but it cannot bring in that money
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for development or for other purposes.
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So there are truly Murray Bond in that sense.
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Um, and with the absence of that oil income, of course, with a growing
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population of over 90 million people, you can see the squeeze that Iranians
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are facing and the state's inability to break out of this straight jacket means
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that those frustrations continue to mount.
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And, you know, you mentioned, you know, the, I mean the, that
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concept is an interesting one.
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I haven't heard that before.
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A mono commodity, uh, uh, economy.
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But, you know, the money that it is getting from oil, I guess it's having to
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spend, you know, a, a larger proportion of that on, you know, these, these
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programs which, you know, ultimately are getting Iran into places that.
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It's not gonna dig out of like nuclear energy and its nuclear program,
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whether it's civilian or, or military.
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I mean, with the nuclear side of, of, uh, of this story.
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Is that over now for Iran or, because I had heard, you know, talking to
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experts on this before, that, you know, the, the nuclear energy program
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in Iran was, it, it, it wasn't something that Iran would give up.
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Just because it felt it was threatened to, it would do everything possible
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ultimately to maintain this.
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Um, or do you think that's gone now?
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So to unpack it, nuclear program, Iran would like to have more
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nuclear, uh, um, power stations.
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Yes.
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No question.
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Um, and as you know, Russia has already agreed to build one plus.
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Uh, for Iran, uh, financing remains to be sorted, of course, because now the
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country's particularly well endowed at the moment to be able to provide the cash for
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another major nuclear power plant in Iran.
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So, and also, let me just add to that Iran's grave water crisis,
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uh, means that to actually keep the reactor cool, may well become a real
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problem for a country like Iran.
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Given that it is, it is now suffering from.
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Real water shortages.
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Um, so just park that one that, that Iran may have to face later.
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Um, but its enrichment program, which is separate from its nuclear power
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program, um, even though they like to link it, is a different matter.
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That was always a political.
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Uh, act to try and press the West to negotiate with Iran
13:56
over this nuclear program.
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Remember, there was a time that Turkey and Brazil were acting as, as middle
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countries to take Iran's in enrich uranium outside of Iran, even in
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Russia, uh, offered itself to become depository of Irans in which uranium so.
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If Iran is prepared to let it go out, what you make, it is always been the
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question of, of the Western countries.
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Um, but as you, as you rightly, uh, say, it's a symbolic thing
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now, it's a nationalist thing.
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It's about pride and all of that stuff, but also the amount of money
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that was spent on the nuclear program, um, makes the regime vulnerable.
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In terms of the amount of money they spent on Hamas and Hezbollah and Bashar
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al-Assad and all of those have come up, have, have gone up in a puff of smoke.
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So you know, it, it's not easy for them to move on from this, but also from the
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intelligence reports, open access that we hear much of what Iran had is now buried.
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It may not be destroyed, but it is buried.
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Certainly they've got the knowhow to resurrect some of it.
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They can make IR six centrifuges fairly easily, but the opportunity cost of that.
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Is greater now than it was say a year ago.
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Definitely.
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Cause you provoke the US and you provoke Israel to, to they know now that they
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can, um, militarily do what they want.
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Absolutely.
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And if Iran does that, then they'll point at that as evidence
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of proliferation intentions.
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And of course, uh, you know, the E3, uh, Britain, France, and Germany are
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already hot on the heels of that one.
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And the snapback is very much.
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A direct threat, threat to Iran to compromise ov his enrichment.
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A, a former colleague of mine and a great expert on, uh, um, Iran in his
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time, the late Vahe Petrosian Yes.
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Used to, um.
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Say that.
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His view about the li the lifespan of the, the, the revolution was that,
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you know, the revolution and, and Vahe interestingly, you know, he, he
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grew up in, in, in the revolution.
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He fled Iran at that time in 1979.
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Um, but it, you know, it was young men.
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That created the revolution.
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And those young men must have, have been running the country ever since then.
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But now they're old.
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And so because they're old, they're, you know, one, they're either dying of natural
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causes, they're either being killed in these regional wars, targeted, or they're
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just basically, they're just too tired.
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You know?
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Is, is there a, a crisis of leadership as well in Iran that's linked to
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that, and does that ultimately lead to the end of the revolution and.
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You know what the next phase will be.
16:49
Yeah.
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Uh, I'm, I'm glad that you reminded us of, Vahe Petrosian, I used to read his
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meat pieces religiously and, and for your benefit and, and the audience.
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We actually have the Vahe collection at Durham University.
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His papers.
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His papers, he, he betrothed them to us.
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So his papers are all here and, and, and you and your colleagues and, and,
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and audience are very welcome to come and access them, including his hand.
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I would love to see
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his handwritten notes.
17:19
Oh, really?
17:20
Fantastic.
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I would love, I would love to see that.
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A great expert, great friend.
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And, and so, yes.
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Um, he, he was following these, these guys, uh, at the time, uh,
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because as you say, they were young men, um, fiery, you know, worked
17:35
up young men, angry young men, and they've, they've, they've moved on.
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The problem Iran faces though, and is that actually when you look at the,
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the age profile, many of those guys are still around and, and while from
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the outside, that looks as a handicap.
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Internally.
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What that provides them with is continuity, but also trust.
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These are folks who have, who have broken bread with each other from very young
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age because of their relationships, have intermarried, have got close
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connections, and so as an elite, as a cabal, if you like, they, they are solid.
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We talk about factionism, we talk, we see all these open disputes and arguments
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and, and, and, and, you know, spilling the beans and so on between them.
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But at the core of the state, if you like the securitized state, there
18:36
is a tight knit bunch of men who.
18:40
Who have different views on things but are bound together by the
18:44
fate of the revolution itself.
18:46
And it's these folks who still around and they perpetuate this
18:51
cycle of confrontation, uh, because they really don't know any better.
18:57
But also unlike virtually all of their neighbors now, which now includes Iraq.
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They have very little contact with technocrats of the rest of the world.
19:11
Um, the Chinese don't give much away to them.
19:15
Uh, I wouldn't very much like to learn from Russian technocrats on the Putin.
19:19
Um, and, and while.
19:23
The counterparts in the Emirates or in Qatar or in Saudi Arabia and
19:27
Iraq can just pick up the phone and ask for your expertise for expertise
19:33
of Western corporations, private sector, and governmental organizations
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when when they're in a pickle.
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Iran doesn't have that luxury.
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So they have created these huge echo chambers that reinforces the
19:48
same prejudices, ideological biases.
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Sometimes the filters are removed and we hear exactly what's going on,
20:00
and there is no question that they're fully aware of the predicament.
20:06
That Iran has, they're fully aware of the crisis that the country has, and
20:10
they're also fully aware that they are actually the cause of it because
20:14
of all of their wrong policies.
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The president now openly acknowledges this in his, in his rhetoric and so on,
20:21
but they genuinely don't know how to.
20:27
Get out of this or what the next step might be.
20:31
And you see this in public exchanges, they have in parliament debates
20:36
and so on, but also in private conversations where they, they generally
20:42
ask, so what should we do next?
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And it's not a protocol question, it's a genuine question of
20:48
inquiry because they don't know.
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How to proceed because they don't have the expertise, they don't have the
20:55
trusted allies that they can talk to.
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Um, and, and for me, the most tangible example of this isolation
21:04
is that, you know, in Shal Ma Sheik, 20 heads of states are present.
21:09
And the guarantors of this new summit, the peace agreement for whatever it's
21:14
worth are Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt.
21:19
Iran, the patron of Hamas, the country that all of these now have good
21:25
relations with is willfully absent.
21:30
Incredible, incredible set of circumstances.
21:32
Um, I mean, you mentioned the, um, factionalism and, you know, what
21:40
world does the IRGC play in that factionalism And to what extent,
21:44
you know, the supreme leader in, in Iran is, is not getting any younger.
21:48
You know, uh, to what extent is the IRGC now winning the show?
21:53
I, I, I think the sanctions have strengthened IRGC's hand in the country,
21:58
um, as the state has ballooned, um, in the absence of a robust private
22:04
sector, uh, the state institutions, you know, the foundations, you
22:10
know, and, and, and, and the, and
22:14
clerical link.
22:16
Charities and RGC corporations and so on, they're in construction,
22:21
in food, in medicine, in trade, you name it, in farming and so on.
22:26
They have taken larger, greater share of any Columbia activity.
22:33
Right, and, and, and why sanctions are in place.
22:38
There is no other contender.
22:42
There are no rivals for them, which means that the power has, has
22:47
continued to grow over this period.
22:49
There was a time that, that the RGC was itself factionalized that under
22:56
President Khatami, for example, there were those who were in support of his
23:00
reforms and dialogue of civilizations.
23:03
But I think that era is now well gone and the RGC is much more of a coherent.
23:10
Securitized Force, which wants with, with very strong economic interests now, and he
23:17
wants to do everything it can to protect those interests for its members, but also.
23:24
While we talk about this elderly generation, their kids, the so-called
23:29
aghazadeh, are around, they're doing very well out of this arrangement and,
23:35
and, and, and these elderly gentlemen are fully aware of the legacy they're gonna
23:41
leave behind for the daughters, for the sons, for the grandchildren, and so on.
23:45
So they are vested.
23:46
In this, you know, uh, structural crisis that Iran is facing
23:54
and our resisting change.
23:57
We've had former foreign minister Javad Zarif spilling the beans on this
24:02
one about how frustrated he was with.
24:05
Uh, Soleimani, uh, as one example, for example, of, of, of the
24:10
problems that exist between the executive and the securitized state.
24:16
You know, the deep state using Trump's favorite phrase.
24:20
And, and the leader, Khamenei, sits at top of this, you know,
24:25
he, he, he runs his own Kremlin, Andy, he has staff award of 5,000.
24:31
He's represented.
24:32
In other words, he's got.
24:34
Eyes and ears in virtually every critical institution.
24:38
The Supreme Natural Security Council, the, uh, the, the pro state organizations,
24:44
he's command commander in chief.
24:46
So he has a direct line to the military and the RGC reports
24:52
to him, not to the president.
24:53
So it's wrong to assume then that, because this was a kind of counter
24:58
theory that Khamenei had been, um, uh.
25:03
Uh, severely weakened by, um, the, the, the War with Israel severely
25:10
weakened by the collapse of the, the strategic, um, um, policies with
25:17
Syria, the proxies in the Middle East.
25:19
But actually you, he, he still has centralized control of all these different
25:24
institutions, including, well, if it's not
25:26
himself, then his Kremlin does.
25:29
Right.
25:29
You know, there is, there is this.
25:33
Uhand group of over 5,000 people.
25:39
Is that the expedience?
25:40
No, no, no.
25:41
His own council.
25:42
His own council.
25:43
Right.
25:44
Okay.
25:44
He, he, he has, he has a, he has a Kremlin.
25:46
He has, he has, he's got his own forbidden city where, where people run his affairs.
25:53
5,000 of them that we know of.
25:57
That is in addition to all these other individuals who serve as his
26:02
representative in virtually every other, uh, pro state organization
26:08
like Expedient Council, for example.
26:10
And so on.
26:10
A guardian council, he elects half of them.
26:14
He selects half of them.
26:15
So.
26:16
For all his age and for all the crisis that he's faced and ridicule
26:22
of hiding in a rat hole, um, while the war was going on and so on.
26:27
His office remains central and it's that office which is
26:32
keeping the system together.
26:34
And while he's alive, the RGC will not move against him, uh, because
26:41
he provides that very strong cover.
26:45
For the radical slant that continues to dominate Iran's foreign policy.
26:50
But the key, the, I think the, you know, the key thing
26:52
there while, while he's alive.
26:53
Yeah.
26:54
So you, what happens when, you know, we, we, you, you know, when he dies, he's old.
27:00
Um, his health has been in question is, is this when the IRGC
27:05
takes over or do we get a new.
27:07
Supreme leader and who would that be?
27:09
I, I think it's very unlikely for them to have a smooth transition as they did in
27:14
1989, um, where everyone was aligned to the succession process being being smooth.
27:23
Then, even though Harmony wasn't the favorite, Rafsanjani as
27:28
he was emerging as president.
27:30
Ensured that, you know, he would, he would be, you know, kind of,
27:34
uh, shoehorned in, into that post.
27:37
Um, but he has so tightened his grip over the system that it's very difficult
27:49
even if he, he nominates someone.
27:52
And remember, Khamenei deliberately didn't, he took his, his nominee out
27:58
before he died and his will did not leave very, very clear instructions.
28:03
So they ended up with a junior Mullah as the grand leader then, rather than
28:09
one of the key major grand ayatollah's.
28:14
Khamenei has managed to alienate most of the Grand ayatollah and the ones
28:19
who remain are even older than him.
28:21
So, you know, you, you are, you are looking at a pre Gorbachev of crisis of
28:30
the Soviet Union Scale, and so you can see if you have that parallel in mind,
28:35
how quickly everything can unravel.
28:38
Yes.
28:39
It's like, it's like Hemingway with bankruptcy, right?
28:41
It happens very slowly and then very quickly.
28:43
Absolutely.
28:44
And then IRGC becomes really important,
28:47
right?
28:48
Uh, yeah.
28:49
'cause it's controlling the country.
28:50
And in the same way, you know, if I think back to when I was a
28:53
reporter in Iraq in 2003, you know, the, when the um, um, Republican
28:59
Guard was finished, Sadam was done.
29:02
That was the only thing that was, was propping him up.
29:05
It was his only lever of control within Iraq, of all elements of, of,
29:11
of Iraqi government, of civil society.
29:13
It was all controlled by this, uh, and, and you know, although the
29:18
Republican guard was very different.
29:19
To the IRGC, you know, it did, there, there were similarities in terms of,
29:23
you know, it had a commercial arm, it had lots of different a aspects to it
29:27
that, you know, the regime depended on.
29:29
And, and I guess that's when the IRGC in, in Iran will, will lock
29:34
things down, take, take control, make sure they get their man in charge.
29:38
Um, I guess where does this all leave?
29:40
The young, you know?
29:41
Yeah.
29:41
You mentioned 90 million people in, in Iran, a huge young population.
29:46
They don't like this, right?
29:47
They don't want, they don't want anything to do with it.
29:49
Um, and, and, and again, you know, these, these, these gray beards
29:55
know this, uh, they, they feel it and see it on a daily basis.
30:01
So once Khamenei dies, I think Iran will have to, to face the, the fork of history.
30:10
Does it open up?
30:12
And, you know, soon after the war, uh, they, the, um, the challenger
30:18
to Ahmadinejad, Mir Hossein Mousavi, um, put out a statement saying,
30:25
you need to have a constitutional court that reviews the constitution.
30:30
A threat to the structure as it stands now.
30:33
Um, and then, and then, and then debates about taking religion out.
30:38
And a bunch of, a bunch of reformists issued their own statement demanding
30:44
that, um, the military is removed from all visages of power, that there
30:50
should be a constitutional court, that Iran should surrender his nuclear
30:54
enrichment program, that it should even.
30:57
Open dialogue with America and all of its allies.
31:01
So, you know, these radical voices are out there, and it was important that
31:05
they put it on the record so that the population can hear that there are people
31:09
within the system or on the margins of the system who are aligned with them.
31:14
Um, and, and so, you know, everything in, in that sense is up for grabs.
31:19
And IRGC, I think once they face that pivot in the road.
31:27
Will, will will.
31:29
Um, fracture.
31:30
They will fracture because there'll be those who want.
31:34
To join a different future, and there are those who want to hang
31:38
on to dear life and the, the, the interests that have accumulated.
31:43
And it'd be very hard to see which side will win because it
31:49
depends on how protracted the tensions between the parties are.
31:54
And then as ever, the role of outsiders, we become really important.
31:58
I can't see.
31:59
Beijing or Moscow being in favor of a pro-Western elite or a neutral
32:07
elite taking over from harmony.
32:10
Um, and yet I can see the western countries, including Israel, in that
32:15
pushing for the total dismantling of Islamic Republic, and they are exposed
32:22
to those pressures from all parties, uh, as it were on, on that front.
32:28
So.
32:29
So Khamenei is the only one who is, who is keeping these forces at
32:33
bay for the, for, for the moment.
32:36
Um, but the pressures now that the step back has been.
32:42
Uh, institutionalized now that the tensions over sanctions continue and
32:48
now that this peace planning is in place where Iran has been completely removed
32:54
from any say in, in the lavan as it were, uh, with Hezbollah and Syria now
32:59
hammers and so on, um, that they may well begin to look within and decide
33:05
that they ought to take that unthinkable step and compromise with Trump.
33:12
And you know that that snapback issue with the sanctions, that's
33:16
already provoked a response in Iran.
33:18
I think that, um, uh, late last week, um, I think it was a senior
33:24
member of the IRGC, there was another threat around the strait of Hormuz.
33:29
Um.
33:30
That's gonna make the economic situation harder.
33:34
It, it, we've all, we are kind of heading to potentially
33:37
an inflection point in 2026.
33:39
Do you think?
33:40
Or is it hard to pinpoint it?
33:42
I, I think they will do everything they can to prevent another complication
33:49
with the west, with Israel as well.
33:51
I think they'll do everything they can to prevent another,
33:55
you know, if you like kinetic.
33:57
Uh, explosion, um, and military confrontation.
34:04
And the irony with their strategy is that actually if they challenge the
34:12
stability, security of straight of Hormuz.
34:15
Be, it'll be their ally in China that's going to be affected by it, not by them,
34:21
but because from Qatar, from Emirates, from Saudi Arabia, from Kuwait, from
34:25
Iraq, the stuff goes out to China.
34:28
So it'll be, it'll be changing these friendship monologue with
34:33
its neighbors into something much more hostile from their side, and
34:38
it will really anno China as well.
34:40
So while they can.
34:42
Blow this hot air in practice.
34:45
Andy, they're also aware of the limitations of something
34:49
as as drastic as that.
34:52
And also for them, it is very difficult to continue to target the fifth fleet
34:57
in the Persian Gulf given the Americans are now wised up to the fast speedboats
35:02
and that actually everything Iran does nice on the surveillance in any case.
35:07
Um, so to what extent given.
35:11
All these problems.
35:12
And if you look at, uh, at their, their international allies, um, China,
35:18
you know, a, a critical partner in terms of oil, but politically, you
35:23
know, perhaps the only significant ally they have left is, is Russia.
35:27
It's in Moscow.
35:28
I, to what extent is Tehran's fate really being decided in the Kremlin?
35:34
And, you know, there were risks with that also.
35:38
Right?
35:39
Uh, I, I, I think that they really don't want to admit to how dependent they've
35:44
become on Russia, um, because they also see Russia as, as a competitor in the
35:51
Caspian, in Central Asia, in oil markets.
35:56
Um, uh, a a as well as also relationship with India and China
36:02
where Iran would like to develop ties with both of those Asian giants.
36:07
And also Andy.
36:08
There is a deep, deep sense of mistrust that for all the Bonami, Iranians
36:16
actually don't trust the Kremlin.
36:19
Um, and, and it comes out frequently in their, in their own conversations.
36:27
In, in, you know, when we discuss these, these issues, um, uh, about countries
36:33
in the region, and I think about my own experience as a, as a journalist
36:36
working in the region, I think we often forget the people that are impacted.
36:40
And, and you know, with Iran especially, you know, in my visits to Iran,
36:45
professionally, what struck me was, you know, in many respects the beauty
36:49
of Iran, the culture of Iran, um.
36:52
Which is quite staggering.
36:54
It is a, a culture that literally predates Western civilization by thousands
36:59
of years, and we forget that, uh,
37:01
it's easily done because the image that constantly reinforces our mindsets, are.
37:09
Uh, angry young men shouting, death to America, death to Israel,
37:12
death, death to Britain, and so on.
37:15
We don't see the other side of people partying, of, of coffee shops, of historic
37:22
monuments of pristine religious monuments.
37:25
Uh, and again, you know, it, it is their own fault, uh, Turkey and Egypt.
37:33
Their biggest export is the tourism.
37:37
Correct.
37:37
And yes,
37:38
and and compared with Iran.
37:41
Iran is, you know, minuscule.
37:43
Minuscule.
37:44
Yeah.
37:45
And it, and it has everything.
37:46
I mean, you can ski in Iran, you can see tremendous history.
37:50
Its natural beauty is staggering, you know?
37:52
Yes, it has issues over, you know, water scarcity and, and climate
37:56
change, which all countries in the Middle East are, you know, are facing.
37:58
But, you know, it, it, it's, its it's potential with, with, you
38:03
know, attracting foreign visitors, tourism, but also, you know, academia.
38:06
Iran has a long tradition of, of, of, of higher education.
38:10
It has good.
38:11
Universities and, and the culture of, of learning.
38:15
Um, does that irrespective of, of the regime, is that at the very essence,
38:22
does that still, that kernel of, of, of civilization, shall we say, does it still
38:27
really exist in, in, in, in, in Iranian society, or is it gradually being kind
38:32
of squeezed and squeezed and squeezed until it, you know, is just a fragment?
38:37
Uh, no,
38:37
that is very much part of the resistance that people keep.
38:42
All of these things.
38:43
Alive and going.
38:45
Um, and they resist any erosion of the history.
38:49
And it's interesting that post, uh, 12 Day War, the regime itself also started,
38:56
uh, erecting symbols of Persepolis and, and Cyrus the Great and so on, uh, because
39:04
they know that that's what resonates.
39:05
With the vast majority of Iranians.
39:07
And, and remember, most of these kids, kids, a beg pardon, the young
39:13
people of Iran are products of this regime, and yet they know pop music
39:19
better than you and I, uh, the sense of fashion is more Manhattan than.
39:26
They're the neighbors in the region.
39:29
Um, they are networked individuals.
39:32
Um, and, and, and they are highly secular.
39:37
The middle class has been squeezed because of the sanctions and
39:41
the, the crisis in the economy.
39:43
But culturally, the strengths of this deep civilizational state.
39:51
Remains very strong, and that is continues to be a thorn in the side
39:55
of the regime because that is a older history than history of Islam in Iran.
40:00
Uh, and, and they just haven't been able to erase it.
40:05
And when the chips are down, that is the only fallback that they have.
40:11
Um, professor Sharmi Anoush.
40:13
Um, uh, I've, I've felt in the last 40 minutes that I've been back
40:17
in one of your lectures, um, uh, you've taken me back, um, 35 years.
40:24
Um, um, that's, it's just a great, um, uh, point to, to, to end the podcast on.
40:29
I think that that's been a tour de force of.
40:32
You know, Iran's past, its present, and potentially its future.
40:37
Um, uh, you know, we're honored to have you on the podcast
40:41
to give us your insights.
40:42
Um, for our listeners, I hope that you've enjoyed this episode.
40:46
Certainly for me, it's been one of the best that we've recorded.
40:48
If you'd like to hear more, you can check us out on Spotify, on the
40:52
Apple Podcast store and YouTube, and indeed on our website at sp.
40:57
S&P global.com.
41:01
Thanks very much for joining us.
41:02
Thank you,
41:02
Andy.
41:02
Thank you very much indeed for having me.
41:04
It's been an absolute pleasure to be with you.