Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Fed Defies Skeptics With Dynamic Response: BI's Riccadonna

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Fed Defies Skeptics With Dynamic Response: BI's Riccadonna · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul swing you,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple
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  Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: that Bloomberg dot com. Least, let's bring out a good friend,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Carl Ricky Donny. He's the chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Carl,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: you listen to Chairman j Pal. You know, what do
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: you take from the Fed's actions this morning? Well, defense
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: actions which we expected them to come in with some
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: additional measures to support main Street, but this did go
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: beyond those expectations. The FETE is really showing UH to
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: to use Mario drags word, that they're doing whatever it takes.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: So those who thought the FED maybe running low on
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: ammunition prior to this crisis are getting a very rude
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: uh and welcome awakening, I should say, as we see
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: them really pulling out all the stops, showing tremendous dynamism
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: and creativity and also aggressiveness in terms of providing support
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: to UH financial markets really across the spectrum. There's some
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: concern just going forward about the political ramifications for the
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve as they choose which bonds to buy and
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: backstop and which not to what's sort of the precedent
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: when it comes to the Fed's role in this capacity
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: and the fallout afterwards. Well, there's there's really no precedent
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: for what we're seeing the FED doing at the moment.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: The FED tries to just step into general markets and
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: not pick winners and losers. So they won't be saying
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: we'll buy company X and UH and skip company why. Instead,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: they'll purchase a broad spectrum of the securities, whether it's
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: in the mortgage market, corporate bond market, and also these
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: additional lending facilities. So I think as we think about
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: political outcomes here, UH, certainly the FED will be viewed favorably.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Favorably post crisis when we're looking back to a second
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: quarter swoon and economic activity that could rival some of
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: the contractions we saw during the Great Depression and unemployment
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: rate that's the highest since the Great Depression, and an
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: economy that comes out the backside of that, UH actually
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: functioning reasonably well with certainly casualties. UH. There will be
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: bankruptcies and UH and and businesses that are shuttered, but
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: come through that much more readily than the experience than
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: prior experiences where we saw that kind of economic dislocation. Carl,
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Every economist who I've spoken with applaudse what the Federal
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Reserve is doing right now, saying that they're acting quickly
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: and aggressively at a time of incredible stress that's affecting
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: individuals both on a health and financial UH. Financial manner
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: that is unprecedented in many ways. There is a question though,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: going forward of the Federal Reserves rule and how they
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: extricate themselves. And when you say that they buy broad markets,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: one way they're trying to do that is with e
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: T s and I'm wondering how that changes the dynamic
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: at a time when exchange fitted funds, at least in
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: credit markets have taken on an outsized role and can
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: be viewed as winning or losing based on what the
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: FED does. Sure, if if there's a big market and
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: there's signs of strain, the Fed is absolutely step stepping
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: in to help bus stabilize financial conditions. What we're seeing here.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: We really shouldn't think of this as economic stimulus. Certainly,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: the FED has cut industrates to zero, and all the
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: measures they're taking should help to prop up the economy,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: won't see lockdown ends. But what really what the FED
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: is doing here is financial market stabilization, right, So they're
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: not picking winners and losers and industries or credit sectors
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: or whatnot. They're looking at core components of the capital markets,
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: the municipal market, corporate bonds, also small businesses and whatnot,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: and they are stepping into stabilized conditions so that liquidity
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  Speaker 1: strains don't become solvency strains, uh in the in the
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: longer run. So, Carl, it's it's fairly cleared. I think
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: that most observers at the US economy right now is
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: in a recession. How does Bloomberg Economics kind of map
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: out the remainder of the year in terms of GDP? Sure? So, well,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: you know, it's difficult to map out what the recovery
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: looks like when you still can't see the bottom and
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: we don't know how far we're going to fall. So
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: until we see some signs of stabilization in the economy
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  Speaker 1: in those earliest indications will be something like the number
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: of unemployment claim filings starting to recede. We haven't gotten
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: there yet. Right each week, we're seeing millions and millions,
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  Speaker 1: six million filings UH in the in the latest week alone,
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  Speaker 1: So until we see jobless claims start to pull back,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: then we don't really know how high the unemployment rate
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: is going to go. So based on our projections U
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: we're about fifteen million filings of jobless claims so far,
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  Speaker 1: if we get to twenty million by the middle of April,
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  Speaker 1: so with next week's data, we're looking at an unemployment
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  Speaker 1: rate heading to about fifteen percent or potentially higher in
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  Speaker 1: the second quarter. That kind of baseline expectations how many
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: workers were shut out of the economy gives us some
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: context to understand how deep the economic dive will be
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: in the quarter as well. Right, it takes a certain
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: number of workers to bruce a certain amount of GDP,
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  Speaker 1: So if we know unemployment has gone from three and
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  Speaker 1: a half to fifteen, then we can map out what
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  Speaker 1: that looks like for GDP. Wow. Carl ka Dona, chief
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: US economists for Bloomberck Economics, thanks so much for joining us.
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  Speaker 1: We always appreciate your commentary and thoughts on particularly today
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  Speaker 1: that you know that we got the jobless claims LEASA
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  Speaker 1: and then the this this really aggressive uh move by
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the Fed. I think looking back, as Karl suggested, you know,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: we're gonna look back and say on this and say,
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  Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve really really formed. Well, they were aggressive, Uh,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: they were early, um, and they were consistent um, and
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: they really thought outside of the box here. So the
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Fed is certainly trying, uh it's most to keep ahead
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  Speaker 1: of this, Paul. Today is a historic day. I think
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  Speaker 1: that we all are going to look back on today
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  Speaker 1: as reaching a tipping point with the Federal Reserve absolutely
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  Speaker 1: solidifying its role at the forefront of trying to save
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: the economy of the world's biggest economy. What we've seen,
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  Speaker 1: I mean that that to me, I feel like is
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: a fair assessment of what we saw today. I think
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: you're right least I think they were. You know, they've
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: been early, I think relatively speaking relative to fiscal policy certainly,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: and they've certainly been aggressive here and again another two
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: point three trillion dollar package today, really focusing on small
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: and midsized business as well as state and local municipalities. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: it also raises some philosophical questions about the Central Bank
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: to the world, which it increasingly has becommon. When we
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: talk philosophical questions, no one better to talk to them
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: with than Barry rid Holts, who is a Bloomberg Opinion
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: contributor as well as the co founder of rid Holts
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Wealth Management and of course the host of Masters in
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Business on Bloomberg Radio. Barry, I want to talk about
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: the FEDS rule here J Powell kind of drawing the
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: distinction between lending versus giving money and saying that they
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: were a lender, and the congressional leadership they were the givers.
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  Speaker 1: And yet it does seem like Congress moves just by
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  Speaker 1: nature of the body and by design slower than the
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: FED can. And the FED has taken the central role.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: What are the consequences for the FED steps and the
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: measures that we have seen so far? So let me
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  Speaker 1: just push back a tiny bit against your question, because historically,
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: outside of the O eight oh nine crisis, we have
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  Speaker 1: seen Congress move quickly. They moved fairly quickly in the
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Great Depression, they moved fairly quick immediately after Pearl Harbor,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: after September eleven, so they can step up to the
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: plate when necessary. They really were just a wall in
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  Speaker 1: O eight oh nine. And in fact, the biggest distinction
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: between the crisis and the O eight crisis is that
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  Speaker 1: it is both monetary and fiscal in its response. And
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: I think J. Powell added exactly right. The said is
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: the central bank bankers to other bankers, and they're there
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: to make sure that the loans flow and that there's
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: plenty of liquidity. If you're going to give money away
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: or spend money, well that's a decision that must come
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: from Congress. So Barry, give us a sense of kind
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: of how you think all this FED action is really
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: going to impact the markets markets. Obviously it's a risk.
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  Speaker 1: On day today we're seeing the equity markets trade up
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  Speaker 1: in response to the FED move here, how do you
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: think that the actions were really plat in the market
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: over time? So all my technical friends are looking at
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: what's taking places more or less a dead cat bounce. Hey,
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: we'll bounce the lows and that's when the snapback rally
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: will run out of steam and then we'll either retest
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: or make new lows. I understand how they feel that way.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not a in that camp, because if we do,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: you know, just today Fiser came out with testing a
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: new treatment for this. If we can actually get to
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: the point where we see the light at the end
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: of the tunnel and the lockdown ends, well the FED
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: will have done their job, Congress will have done their job,
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  Speaker 1: and we'll start moving towards a more normal footing. It's
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: going to take a while, but it's not oblique, and
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: there are signs that you know, there is a natural
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: end to this crisis. Comment. There has been a general
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: feeling that the Federal Reserve is acted appropriately given the
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: magnitude of the shock uh that we're seeing right now.
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  Speaker 1: Still a lot of questions remain about how the Federal
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Reserve will extricate itself from this program, as well as
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: how it chooses which exchange did funds to buy. We're
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: seeing For example, h y G, the biggest hiled bondy
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: t F in the United States, surged the most in
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: October two thousand and eight. Today, are you concerned about
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: questions of moral hazard and choosing winners and losers that
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: will inevitably dog the FED following this? Sure? Always and
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: and in fact, you know, we don't even have to
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: wait five years to look do a post mortem on this.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: There was no reason for the Fed to go to zero.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: It looked like they were panicking. They could have cut
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: a half half a point and left it there. It
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: makes it that much more difficult to extricate themselves. I
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: give Ben Bernankee high ratings for how he managed the
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: period from O eight oh nine. He was he was
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: way too accommodative beforehand and arguably stayed on emergency footing
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: way too long. It's very easy to show up at
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: the party, uh with the punch bowl, which is what
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: the Fed is doing. It's much more challenging to take
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: that punch bowl away. We'll see if J Powell is
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: that are any better than Janet Yellen or Ben Bananke
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: at bringing rates back to more normal levels. It's very,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: very difficult to do. So Barry is he is he
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: kind of take a look at this market place here
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: again where we've had a number of updates here, how
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: are you really thinking about it? Here? Are you thinking
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: that this is a a real move or it's just
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: kind of a bounce within the context of a bear market.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: So I love to think in opposites. I love to
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: stake out of position and then try and say, okay,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: what is the exact opposite position, and might that be right?
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: You know, the real optimistic perspective is this is an externality.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: This is a one off event, and once we get
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: through it, we'll go back to business as usual and
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: the priorable market will resume its former trend and the
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: economy will will recover and everything will be fine. You know, historically,
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: look at seven, not only was that the day, but
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Pique the trough. It was more than and that uh
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: down draft never derailed the economy or the bull market.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: So best case scenario, this is sort of like that
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: worst case scenario. We're in a recession that lasts a
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: long time. The drawdowns continue. This is a dead cat bounce,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: and we make new lows below doubt twenty and maybe
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: down to I don't know, pick the number two thousand
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: on the smp UM, and it will take a while
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: to heal from this. The truth reality usually falls between
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: either extreme I doubt that this will all disappear once
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: it's over, once we get a treatment and a vaccine.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: It's not all going to go away. There's a lot
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: of damage in the economy revealed by the collapse and
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: I also doubt that this is a seventies era decade
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: long problem. This will take a couple of years to
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: fully recover from UM. But you know, you're starting to
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: see some positive signs of this peaking. We still have
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: a lot of work to go, but it doesn't feel
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: like this is gonna last forever. Barry Dholts, thanks so
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: much for joining us. As always, Barry Ridholts, founder, Redholt's
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Wealth Management is also Bloomberg Opinion calumnists and host of
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Masters of Business podcasts. Well as we talk about the
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve is two point three trillion dollar extra bailout
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: money for credit markets and beyond, we have perhaps buried
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: the lead, which is that six point six million individuals
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: in the United States filed or I guess we're able
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: to file for unemployment claims in the past week, bringing
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: the total three week claims figure too well above fifteen
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: million people. The jobless rate on track to exceed, well
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: exceed ten per cent for the first time since the
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: nineteen eighties, leading to a question of just how bad
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: is it and how quickly will some of these individuals
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: be able to get their jobs back? Joining us now,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: Hayden Brown president and chief executive officer of up work,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: based in Mountain View, California, which up work is a
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: job placement agency that focuses online, which is perfect for
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: the environment that we're living in. We're all in our
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: on our screens and in our cyber worlds. Hayden, thank
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: you so much for being with us. Do you have
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: a sense of how quickly people are able to sort
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: of reroot their skills find jobs, say in you know,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: warehouses or other necessary rules as they wait this period
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: of tumult out. Certainly this is affecting different parts of
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: the economy, varied differently. You mentioned work workers and warehouses
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: and those types of jobs. I think they're just getting
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: pummeled and there's not a lot to do to move
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: those online. But in other sectors of the economy where
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: the work is more about knowledge work and digital work,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: we're seeing clients and freelancers on our platform just moving
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: rapidly to expand their remote work deployments and get more
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: and more talent through online platforms like upward. So interesting, Heyden,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: do you think this is maybe accelerating a trend which
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: may have already been there, which is kind of the
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: work from home type of situations and maybe expand new industries,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: new functionalities. Is this something that you think will be
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: a longer term trend when we come out on the
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: other side of this, Paul, I think you're right about that.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: This has definitely been a long term trend where more
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: and more workers have been demanding freedom and flexibility and
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: how they work and really clamoring to get more of that,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: and employers have started to see some of the benefits.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: But the current crisis has no doubt accelerated massively people's
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: adoption of both the tools and technology that enable remote work,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: as well as the cultural and behavioral things that people
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: need to do to really collaborate successfully together remotely. So
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: I think that those patterns of behavior will be here
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: to stay, and this is going to be a seismic
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: shift that lasts well beyond the current crisis. Hayden, what
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: does the research show as far as the percentage of
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: the workforce that can go online at this point? You know,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: the numbers on that vary, But what we've seen in
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: the US already recently m I t to the study
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: where of the workforce or more has moved from commuting
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: to offices to online, and so I think there have
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: been some myths where people felt like this is something
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: that they potentially couldn't do. But we've seen you more
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: than an eight fold increase in people moving their work
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: online in the last couple of weeks alone, which I
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: think does indicate people are realizing there's a lot more
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: they can do online than maybe what they previously saw it. So, hey,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: didn't you know it's interesting here? You know a lot
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: of we get the jobs number of jobless claims again
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: this morning. You know another staggering number six point six
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: million people that you know, cumulatively about sixteen or seventeen
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: million people over the last three weeks. What can recently
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: downsize employees do to maybe try to secure a new
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: job quickly given all the uncertainty that's out there. Yeah,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: I think one of the first things for people to
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: focus on is making sure their skills are up to date.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: This is a great opportunity for reskilling or brushing up
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: on knowledge of tools and technology that really are required
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: both for the digital economy that just exists today, as
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: well as for working remotely. The second thing that people
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: can do is coming onto online work platforms like a
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: work assembling a really detailed profile that showcases what they
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: can do, an examples and testimonials from past clients or
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: employers of of how great their skills are. And then finally,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: I'd say, as they reach out to perspective future clients,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: really be tailored and how they approach those clients and
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: and address the specific needs that clients have outlined in
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: a scope of work or a post in that they've made,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: so that the it's clear that the worker has really
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: thought through and is ready to commit to those specific
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: needs of the client, not just kind of is generally
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: skilled in the area. Taking a step back, I'm wondering
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: how much hiring there's actually going on right now, given
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the fact that we talk so much about the actual
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: jobless claims that are blowing all historical precedents out of
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: the water. Yeah, I think it's really kind of two
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: different stories out there today. You know, there are sectors
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: of the economy that essentially are frozen and hiring and
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: so much activity has come to a screeching hope. But
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: then what we're seeing is a lot of businesses they're
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: just really working on business continuity and they still are
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: moving forward. They are hiring, they are trying to get
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: work done, and they're just trying to figure out how
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: to do it in this new context and frankly figuring
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: out that a lot of the traditional ways that they were,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: for example, hiring traditional staff just aren't working in a
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: world where we're you know, sheltering in place, and that
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: the changes have been so rapid, and so I think
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: a lot of businesses there is light in the edge
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: and at the end of the tunnel for them, but
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: they're just having to adapt to new channels to find
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: talented individuals outside of kind of the normal ways that
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: they've done that. So, Hayden, what is your sense, you know,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: we we've seen these historic numbers, as Lisa's just referencing,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: what is your sense of how this labor market might
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: play out over the next you know, year or so.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: It's obviously gonna be really ugly here. We're going to
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: get unemployment, you know, some numbers for suggesting today maybe
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: as high as fifteen percent. But do you think it's
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: going to play out over time? It definitely as hard
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: to say where this is going to go, and we
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: don't feel like we're at the bottom yet, so it's
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: going to be a rough couple of quarters. I think
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: been back. Some of the trends that we're watching are
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: really around the freelancing trend in America, which has been
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: a big trend on the rise. More than fifty seven
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: million Americans were freelancing last year, contributing over a trillion
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: dollars to the economy. So I think in this time
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: of crisis, people are increasingly turning to alternative where they
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: can drive income through freelancing, either part time or full time,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: trying to figure out how to make ends work ends meet,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: and I think we'll see that trend continue to be
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: both accelerated by the crisis and kind of endure even
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: after things start to recover. It's interesting that that you
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: talk about freelancers because people have been talked about the
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: gig economy and how people who are in that area
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: have suffered disproportionately because their income has been cut off
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: that much faster. Do you expect it to actually come
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: back online that much more quickly, or perhaps even before
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: the shutdowns end, just because jobs are so much more
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: fungible and flexible on in an online world. Absolutely, So,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: I think that people will realize that they need to
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: be very cautious about a lot of their hiring and
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: we'll look to freelancers as an alternative where they can
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: get really skilled talent and not have the same level
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: of long term commitment. Frankly, uh. And they're going to
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: realize also that this is a great way that they
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: can tap into skilled people that actually are not in
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: their own backyards, and they can find freelancers across the country,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: across the globe who can help fill a lot of
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: the skills gap that they have been facing even before
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: this crisis. And it certainly is going to continue to
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: increase as they work to evolve into even more digitally
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: oriented businesses and workplaces. So I think that the freelancing
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: trend is definitely going to continue to accelerate and we'll
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: rebound even more quickly once the recovery starts happening. Heyden,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: where just give us a sense of where corporate America
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: is in terms of working from home? I know, you know,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: certain companies really embrace it, a lot of other companies
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: not so much. Kind of where do you think we are?
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: And I think that's going to play out given what
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: we're experiencing right right here. I think all what we're
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: seeing from our customers is everyone is scrambling to figure
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: out how they can obviously work from home more successfully.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: And we're trying to help them because we've been actually
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: doing work from home for twenty years inside of our
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: own company as well as running the largest online platform
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: that lets people work from home. So uh, clients are
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: reaching out to us right now and asking questions about
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: how they can expand the types of work that gets
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: done working from home, even if they had previously you know,
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: smaller populations of employees or freelancers doing this kind of model.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: And so with that appetite and when I think a
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: lot of thoughts to business continuity even outside of this
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: specific crisis, a lot of the companies are talking to
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: us about how do we create more of these flexible
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: talent benches that help us maintain continuity even in situations
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: where people have to work from home in mass and
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: that's I think going to be something they care about
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: again well after this current crisis passes. Haydon Brown, thank
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: you so much for joining us to really appreciate your
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: thoughts on this whole working from home concept which is
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: now being embraced by many many U S workers. Haydon Brown,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: she's the CEO of up Work, giving us her thoughts
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: on kind of some of those jobless numbers, Lisa, and
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: that's growing, growing UH evalence of people working from home,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: and now it's being forced on a lot of people,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: it's being forced on a lot of UH companies, and
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: I think everybody's trying to adapt and he's trying to
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: optimize the situation. Well, as we've been talking about, the
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve stepped up once again with a very aggressive
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: financing package, liquidity package for the marketplace two point three
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: trillion dollars. We can't say the same about Congress. Is
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: commerce goes back and forth on a set another fiscal
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: stimulus plan, back and forth that Democrats Republicans really at
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: odds today not able to move that forward. To get
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: the latest, we welcome Billy House. He's a coggressional reporter
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News. So, Billy, what's the latest on this
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: latest round? Is A two billion? Is five billion? Where
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: are we? Well? That just happened in the last half
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: hour that Senate UH could not come in agreement on
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: which one to do. UH. Democrats would not go along
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: with expedited approval of Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leaders.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Two billion our version that's reflective of Treasury sectory of
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: Nutin's proposal. Instead, Democrats want twice as much. They want
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: more money for at additional aid for state and local
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: governments and hospitals and other matters, not just small businesses.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Billy taking a step back. We've been talking a lot
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: about the Federal Reserve's response, and some people have been
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: drawing parallels or perhaps contrasts with Congress and how they've
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: acted and how they've been a lot slower. What's the
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: sort of consensus on whether they've acted quickly or whether
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: they've been behind the eight ball. Well, I mean, when
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: you look back two weeks ago at the massive two
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: trillion dollar stimulus bill, you don't have to give them,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: I guess, credit for acting swiftly on that, even though
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: in just a matter of days from it being proposed
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: to pass by both chambers and then signed by the President.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: There were some wrinkles in between, but that was very
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: swift and that was within a week. Uh, they didn't
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: pivoted to winning a larger infrastructure package, but and realized
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: they needed this added stimulus boost for small businesses and
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: were to do something quickly on that. But now they
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: hit this sprinkle, and it appears that nothing's going to
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: be resolved till next week. So I got you gotta
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: give mixed marks. At the same time, the Fed today
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: may have given them a little breathing room with the
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: actions they took on helping small businesses. So, Billy, is
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: the sense that you know it really assistant question of
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: to or is there other issues involved there as well?
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: There's issues on how that aid would actually work within
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: the programs for instances. For instance, Democrats want more tailored
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: UH directives to minority owned businesses, women owned businesses UH,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: and in their bill they would actually classify farms also
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: as a small business that had been uncertain. So I
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: mean there are more distinct directives within the language and
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: the Democratic bill in the Republican bill, Billy. There's also
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: a question about the existing legislation that you mentioned. It's
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: been passed a two trillion dollar bill. A lot of
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: people did say they moved quickly. However, there have been
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: a series of stories throughout a variety of different news
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: channels talking about the kinks in the system, the fact
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: that banks have been reluctant to lend out to companies
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: they don't have prior relationships with or without more better
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: guidance as far as how to get those loans back stopped.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: What's the latest in rolling that out? And that's that's
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: exactly what the Democrats were saying on the Senate floor today.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: There were a couple of most of the lawmakers in
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Washington are not in town. Thanks for listening to the
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: abram Woy. It's I'm on Twitter at Lisa A. Bramwoits
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: one before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio.