Latest / Drinkin‘ Bros Podcast / Episode 1721 - 2026 Midterm Election Prediction Show

Transcript

Episode 1721 - 2026 Midterm Election Prediction Show · Drinkin‘ Bros Podcast

0:09
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, well, I'm gonna drink in Bro's kids.
0:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Ah, this is the big one.
0:15
[SPEAKER_05]: This is the big one.
0:18
[SPEAKER_05]: The prediction show for the midterms of 2026
0:24
[SPEAKER_05]: We've been caught teasing you here for the last couple months, saying, hey, we're looking to get off the YouTube thing, man, because on Patreon, that's their backends, and if we play anything illegal, and blah, blah, blah, they'll just nuke the video.
0:40
[SPEAKER_05]: You guys were pissed, we were pissed, and uh, and I said, hey, we're working on it, working on an app in the background, we're working on a code to get rid of that, so we can play whatever we want.
0:51
[SPEAKER_05]: whenever we want, and after many months of hard work, I think it has come to fruition, we did a test last night.
0:59
[SPEAKER_05]: Me and Koop, you guys seemed to love it in the beta test, so we're going to test it out.
1:04
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, here on Patreon, and if it gets clipped, obviously, we'll...
1:10
[SPEAKER_05]: go back up again live here in a few minutes.
1:14
[SPEAKER_05]: But Koopa and I were discussing this before the show.
1:17
[SPEAKER_05]: What's the most litigious thing that YouTube has in the world has?
1:22
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it's Metallica, right?
1:24
[SPEAKER_03]: Yep, we said Metallica.
1:25
[SPEAKER_03]: It almost the exact same time.
1:28
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't think that's true anymore.
1:30
[SPEAKER_03]: I don't doubt that.
1:31
[SPEAKER_03]: I mean, they were, you know, anymore.
1:32
[SPEAKER_03]: They had the reputate.
1:34
[SPEAKER_03]: They had the first reputation for it.
1:35
[SPEAKER_03]: Then in Cheryl Crow.
1:36
[SPEAKER_03]: You and I didn't un-search show that they cut, like, fucking 14 times, dude.
1:42
[SPEAKER_03]: And it was nirally.
1:43
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm surprised they didn't just take away all of our social media.
1:46
[SPEAKER_03]: I thought they were close.
1:47
[SPEAKER_05]: We got a strike.
1:48
[SPEAKER_05]: for the burner account.
1:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, we don't even have to use that.
1:53
[SPEAKER_05]: I think, so we're gonna give it a shot right now and see how this works out.
1:59
[SPEAKER_05]: My favorite inner sandman is from Virginia Tech and that's also my favorite Metallica song and just the walkout song for this at their stadium is the most magical thing in the world and they would kill the audio in YouTube anyways, so fuck it, let's start with that.
2:21
[SPEAKER_05]: Put on screen.
4:16
[SPEAKER_03]: All right, how are we looking, Coo?
4:17
[SPEAKER_03]: I'm gonna take it this way.
4:18
[SPEAKER_03]: Everything ready to help?
4:19
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, everything ready to help?
4:19
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:20
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:21
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:22
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:24
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:25
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:27
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:29
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:30
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:31
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:32
[UNKNOWN]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
4:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, everything ready to help.
5:00
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, I'm then they're going in and put off from my city dude with a young jazzy and Kanye.
5:07
[SPEAKER_05]: How did it work?
5:07
[SPEAKER_05]: Did we only still love?
5:09
[SPEAKER_05]: Stream is still up.
5:10
[SPEAKER_03]: We are good to go.
5:11
[SPEAKER_05]: No way.
5:12
[SPEAKER_05]: So not only did we use Metallica, but we also used ESPN.
5:15
[SPEAKER_05]: That was the game of the night whenever that was filmed.
5:19
[SPEAKER_05]: ESPN will also rip you down real fast.
5:22
[SPEAKER_05]: So if it made it through that, we're good, dude.
5:26
[SPEAKER_05]: We're good.
5:26
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, everything's looking good on this end.
5:29
[SPEAKER_05]: You're eyes look a little wide over there.
5:30
[SPEAKER_05]: We got it.
5:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I think we're good.
5:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Yes.
5:34
[SPEAKER_05]: Holy shit.
5:35
[SPEAKER_05]: God.
5:36
[SPEAKER_05]: That was months and months of hard work.
5:39
[SPEAKER_05]: Unbelievable.
5:39
[SPEAKER_05]: So now we can say whatever we want.
5:42
[SPEAKER_05]: Cons, fag.
5:43
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, I mean, what else?
5:45
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, I'm not going to push it with you.
5:47
[SPEAKER_05]: And we're obviously, because I don't want you guys to clip that.
5:50
[SPEAKER_05]: But, you know,
5:52
[SPEAKER_05]: He doesn't want to bring a friend in this studio.
5:53
[SPEAKER_05]: Maybe we should have a dexter pits, just come in, Dan, and just have him say it over and over again.
5:58
[SPEAKER_05]: And that would really test it, you know?
6:01
[SPEAKER_05]: He could just say it over and over and over again.
6:04
[SPEAKER_05]: And he's black, so he's allowed to do that.
6:07
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, fuck yeah.
6:08
[SPEAKER_05]: How's the chat look do you chat?
6:10
[SPEAKER_03]: Sorry.
6:11
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, chat's great And just for anybody who's talking about the auto moderation in chat you have to disable that in your own Patreon app We've got no restrictions on RN so if you're getting your comments moderated just check your settings All right, so since you're saying that Could they technically say whatever they wanted or no?
6:27
[SPEAKER_03]: As far as I can tell, you can say whatever you want.
6:29
[SPEAKER_05]: Ah, boy.
6:30
[SPEAKER_03]: I'll add it.
6:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Outerations off on all of you.
6:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Just keep it.
6:35
[SPEAKER_05]: Let's just keep the one word off.
6:36
[SPEAKER_05]: Keep it clashing.
6:37
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
6:38
[SPEAKER_05]: Just keep the end word off there.
6:40
[SPEAKER_05]: All right.
6:42
[SPEAKER_05]: But fuck yeah, dude.
6:43
[SPEAKER_05]: God, that took forever.
6:45
[SPEAKER_05]: That took forever.
6:46
[SPEAKER_05]: All right.
6:48
[SPEAKER_05]: I feel free.
6:48
[SPEAKER_05]: I feel like fucking Django and Shane for Christ's sex.
6:52
[SPEAKER_05]: Awesome.
6:53
[SPEAKER_05]: Awesome.
6:53
[SPEAKER_05]: Alright, this is our huge prediction show for the midterms that are coming up on Tuesday.
7:00
[SPEAKER_05]: We'll be live with you on at 7pm Eastern.
7:03
[SPEAKER_05]: That'll be YouTube, Twitter, all the other fun stuff.
7:06
[SPEAKER_05]: Shit, we can plug in our Patreon.
7:07
[SPEAKER_05]: Whatever you want to do.
7:09
[SPEAKER_05]: It's going everywhere.
7:10
[SPEAKER_05]: It is brought to you by Kalshia.
7:11
[SPEAKER_05]: I know we're on Patreon today.
7:13
[SPEAKER_05]: But we are using the Kalshia model because we personally are going to invest a lot of money into this.
7:21
[SPEAKER_05]: I had to sit down with my wife last night so how hard can I go here?
7:26
[SPEAKER_05]: is these numbers don't match my numbers and I know for a goddam fact they don't match your numbers damn.
7:33
[SPEAKER_05]: They're way off and we'll tell you why here.
7:36
[SPEAKER_05]: So at Calchi, sorry Patron, we want you guys to get ready for Tuesday, just make sure everything's up to speed and all that other stuff.
7:45
[SPEAKER_05]: From a code drinking $25 trade, it will get you an extra $25 there and it goes a long
7:54
[SPEAKER_05]: Jesse won $500 off the hunger off of I was like a $5 bet.
7:59
[SPEAKER_05]: I think the odds were 50 to one And that was constant race and you guys did that live on crime corner and I was unaware that it was paying off that
8:09
[SPEAKER_05]: that much.
8:09
[SPEAKER_05]: I was like, God damn, dude, you just filled up your account.
8:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Like, five was five hundred eleven dollars for a five dollar bet, dude.
8:17
[SPEAKER_05]: It was nuts.
8:18
[SPEAKER_05]: So everything today, you will see calcium on the screen.
8:22
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, this isn't like a Dan Bongino thing or trying to get you to do everything else.
8:26
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, no, we're telling you to do it.
8:28
[SPEAKER_05]: And, uh, and the map itself is why, and Dan, here's why I think calcium is important, because this is just normal people.
8:35
[SPEAKER_05]: We've discussed this in the past.
8:37
[SPEAKER_05]: There is no vagus.
8:38
[SPEAKER_05]: There's no spread.
8:39
[SPEAKER_05]: There's nobody's set in these odds.
8:41
[SPEAKER_05]: These aren't based on poles.
8:42
[SPEAKER_05]: These are just different people's money from all over the world who are picking these races.
8:48
[SPEAKER_05]: But there also could be a lot of money from all over the world that is pumped into these states to scare everyone from voting on Tuesday.
8:57
[SPEAKER_05]: Is that become part of campaigns?
9:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, that's always been part of campaigns.
9:02
[SPEAKER_02]: That's actually how Brotherhood be Hayes, the Associated Press and Western Union stolen election.
9:08
[SPEAKER_02]: But we've never had a prediction market before like this.
9:10
[SPEAKER_02]: This is the first year.
9:11
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, but we've had the press, and the press reporting fake polling numbers is not the new.
9:17
[SPEAKER_02]: True.
9:18
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, this is, this is very similar.
9:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
9:21
[SPEAKER_02]: And I'm not saying the cows she's reporting fake stuff there, just providing the prediction platform.
9:26
[SPEAKER_02]: But people can go on and spend money.
9:29
[SPEAKER_02]: I think they could do some stuff to their site to make it a little more A little more obvious if that's happening right like bulk purchases if bigger accounts and they do publish this stuff sometimes
9:42
[SPEAKER_02]: I just think, if you could have it, if you drill down on a particular race, you could see what the bulk bets on it are a prediction on it are, and then where they come from geographically would be interesting as well, I think that would be something.
9:59
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I think so too.
10:01
[SPEAKER_05]: Since you brought that up, the only one that they report that on is ESPN usually, you know, all the other news outlets for the Super Bowl, well they'll be like, hey, a $2 million bet just came in from one guy at the MGM grant, you know, in Vegas.
10:17
[SPEAKER_05]: And here's the team that it came in on and decide for yourself what you want to do.
10:23
[SPEAKER_05]: So,
10:24
[SPEAKER_05]: It, it's happened occasionally, but yeah, if they did that on this, I think that would really help because let's say it was Russia, right?
10:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, you know, Democrats were blaming 2016 on Russia if $2 million was coming into Toloreco in Texas.
10:40
[SPEAKER_05]: from Russia, I would look at that number and be like, well, and it seems kind of fishy.
10:46
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, I think that would be a great update.
10:48
[SPEAKER_05]: I've got to call with him one day.
10:49
[SPEAKER_05]: So I'll pitch that to him, actually.
10:51
[SPEAKER_05]: They're super fucking cool over there.
10:53
[SPEAKER_05]: And yeah, so how it starts is just 0-0, and then you can predict whatever you want there, but it's just normal.
11:00
[SPEAKER_05]: People, however, we are trying to make the predictions.
11:04
[SPEAKER_05]: So let's start with the Senate first.
11:08
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, do you want to go, how do you want to do this, Blue?
11:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Cause you're, your man in the ones and twos back there.
11:13
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so let's just go through, um, we can, we can go through and discuss each state and then we can each individually, um, guess, for each state.
11:21
[SPEAKER_05]: Great.
11:21
[SPEAKER_05]: So I'm going to follow your lead today because I don't want you to get lost on the map.
11:26
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, where would you like to start today?
11:27
[SPEAKER_04]: Let's start.
11:28
[SPEAKER_04]: Let's start easy, right?
11:29
[SPEAKER_04]: And America's penis down here in Florida.
11:31
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay.
11:32
[SPEAKER_04]: Um,
11:33
[SPEAKER_04]: What do you guys think?
11:34
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, we know we got Angie Nixon, nuts, nuts, and uh, yeah, her odds on calcium right now.
11:42
[SPEAKER_04]: Well, the Republicans odds rather are 91% for Ashley Moody.
11:48
[SPEAKER_04]: Yep.
11:50
[SPEAKER_04]: That's what I got.
11:50
[SPEAKER_04]: What do you got, Anthony?
11:53
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I'll hold on a second open in my file here for Moody.
11:59
[SPEAKER_05]: Mm-hmm.
12:00
[SPEAKER_05]: Over next in, if you recall, we actually did this story in fake news a couple months back.
12:06
[SPEAKER_05]: She's the socialist candidate.
12:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, yes, she's not winning a Florida.
12:09
[SPEAKER_02]: No.
12:10
[SPEAKER_05]: And a matter of fact, the Democrats were actually pissed that she won, and nobody predicted it.
12:16
[SPEAKER_05]: She kind of came out of nowhere, and won, and they were like, well, shit.
12:20
[SPEAKER_05]: Now we don't have a shot, and they had poured a bunch of money into the other guy.
12:24
[SPEAKER_05]: And it was somebody who used to work for Trump, and they thought that that was their best chance, because he was going to run his Democrats, and then this shit came out of nowhere, and won, and they were furious about it.
12:35
[SPEAKER_04]: Did he work for Trump or was he, I thought he was one of the guys who prosecuted Trump and in, in, lat, Trump one point out.
12:41
[SPEAKER_05]: I thought that was kind of a...
12:43
[SPEAKER_05]: I can't remember.
12:44
[SPEAKER_05]: There's so many trials.
12:45
[SPEAKER_05]: There's a while ago.
12:46
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
12:46
[SPEAKER_05]: So many trials against Trump to the tolerance.
12:49
[SPEAKER_05]: Another one just pops up about 48 hours ago from like 1993.
12:55
[SPEAKER_05]: some woman from Denmark is swimming and I'm just like, dude, I can't do this anymore.
13:00
[SPEAKER_05]: But you've got Florida red?
13:02
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
13:02
[SPEAKER_05]: Yep.
13:03
[SPEAKER_05]: I got Moody as well.
13:04
[SPEAKER_05]: What are the odds on?
13:06
[SPEAKER_05]: What do we like?
13:06
[SPEAKER_04]: We like it on calcium.
13:07
[SPEAKER_04]: So on calcium, yeah, it's 89% for Ashley Moody vote hub, which is also a sponsored right, calcium down here.
13:16
[SPEAKER_04]: They have Moody at plus 6.8.
13:19
[SPEAKER_02]: I've got in Florida just overall.
13:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I've got, la la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la.
13:30
[SPEAKER_02]: probably plus 11.
13:32
[SPEAKER_02]: If I had to guess, if you average out those two races, that's what I would guess.
13:38
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, do they have that?
13:39
[SPEAKER_05]: Like is that an option there for Calshy?
13:41
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, I can say like lean, lean red or I mean, we can, uh, yeah, actually there was a margin that you can share.
13:48
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, there is.
13:49
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
13:49
[SPEAKER_05]: All right.
13:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Because I would say 15.
13:53
[SPEAKER_05]: I would say 15 points.
13:54
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't think this is close.
13:56
[SPEAKER_05]: That's just the polling.
13:57
[SPEAKER_05]: Like I saw.
13:59
[SPEAKER_02]: I did an analysis that took about a week of the polling inaccuracies in every state since 2018, how far and they all go to the left, by the way, not one of, I mean some of them in some states, in some left states were less left and that broke because of moderates and shit like that.
14:24
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, they're
14:30
[SPEAKER_02]: It came out to an average of about four.
14:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Somewhere between two and six, go ahead, more Democrat votes than what the vote or I'm sorry, the polling showed two to 6% less representation for Republicans.
14:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Now,
14:52
[SPEAKER_02]: You've got to keep in mind a lot to happen since then.
14:56
[SPEAKER_02]: And when I say we meet in some other people that have been looking into this data, things that it's going to be worse than that.
15:05
[SPEAKER_02]: And correct.
15:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Like it's going to be more like six points or more because of how pissed off repubes are about polling and data and shit like that right now.
15:15
[SPEAKER_02]: But yeah, just,
15:19
[SPEAKER_02]: for that, for Florida, Nixon versus Moody, I've got plus seven.
15:23
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
15:24
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay.
15:25
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so no plus 11, excuse me, plus 11 for that one, yeah.
15:28
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, so that is on Kalashiv, we got a 20% chance for plus 11 Moody.
15:32
[SPEAKER_04]: What about 15?
15:33
[SPEAKER_04]: That's where I'm going.
15:34
[SPEAKER_04]: 15, choose 14 or 16.
15:35
[SPEAKER_04]: Uh, 14.
15:35
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, 8.2%.
15:42
[SPEAKER_04]: that's you.
15:44
[SPEAKER_04]: That is a juicy one.
15:45
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm that's where I'm going.
15:46
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay, if you put she's this woman's fucking insane and it just does not fly in Florida.
15:52
[SPEAKER_05]: It does not fly.
15:53
[SPEAKER_05]: And the Democratic Party poured all their money into the other candidate and even she was stunned that she won.
15:59
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah.
16:01
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, all in on that.
16:04
[SPEAKER_05]: We're doing a go next, Luke.
16:05
[SPEAKER_04]: All right, so next up, let's go to, we got to save, do we want to go to Georgia?
16:11
[SPEAKER_04]: That's too.
16:13
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, I, this map autopopulated, so Georgia, so it has some that are, I kind of disagree with, that are, has a leans.
16:20
[SPEAKER_04]: That's fine.
16:21
[SPEAKER_04]: But we can do Georgia, sure.
16:22
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, we'll just go up and down the coast.
16:24
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, we'll have to leave the fun ones for last.
16:27
[SPEAKER_04]: Yes, yeah.
16:27
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay.
16:28
[SPEAKER_05]: Georgia.
16:30
[SPEAKER_05]: Democrat.
16:31
[SPEAKER_05]: It's going to be awesome in that one.
16:34
[SPEAKER_05]: And, you know, obviously I'm from there and I got a ton of friends that live there.
16:40
[SPEAKER_05]: Hollywood moved out there years and years ago.
16:42
[SPEAKER_05]: And a lot of production, you know, they always talk about production leaving LA.
16:46
[SPEAKER_05]: It all went to Atlanta.
16:47
[SPEAKER_05]: And including Wilmington, Wilmington, Stats, the State of North Carolina stopped there.
16:53
[SPEAKER_05]: uh... contact credits for films and all that stuff so it fuddle them down to it and uh... uh... a lot of people left lost angeles and went to it down to george it's gonna be democrat it's gonna be awesome and i i think if he does well he might be their top presidential candidate for twenty eight um... i think it's yeah i don't the demographic part of voters doesn't matter to me he's the better candidate
17:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Then the other guy then my college.
17:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, he I've got him winning by four and a half points for us if yep Give me six to seven there Just because he's wouldn't old school Democrat used to be like him and he's closer to the middle
17:42
[SPEAKER_05]: They are then everybody else and I think in this election in particular, it's going to be very very important to see which of these socialists and all these crazy fucking people end up winning and losing versus Hey, we want to get these fucking people out of our party, but give me awesome in this one
17:59
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so Georgia Senate, the Calshy has John also have a 97% to win, and in fact, it's predicting plus 12.7 for margin.
18:12
[SPEAKER_04]: Yep.
18:13
[SPEAKER_04]: If we go to five points, if it's just five plus points, it's a 91% chance.
18:22
[SPEAKER_04]: So you can only make more if you go further out
18:27
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, just had a curiosity.
18:28
[SPEAKER_05]: They have the governor's race on there for Georgia.
18:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I can take a look because some of these states like North Carolina, for example, um, you know, which obviously gets you.
18:39
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, they've got one position that's blue and then everything else is red.
18:44
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, this blue shit in Georgia is very, very new.
18:48
[SPEAKER_05]: Um,
18:48
[SPEAKER_05]: Man, the last couple of elections, but I believe the mayor Kisha Lance bottoms who was the mayor of Atlanta during the summer of love for BLM when they burned down the fucking city and killer Mike had to go up and stop.
19:02
[SPEAKER_05]: people and shits.
19:04
[SPEAKER_05]: I believe she's running for governor.
19:06
[SPEAKER_04]: Is that true?
19:06
[SPEAKER_04]: You are correct?
19:07
[SPEAKER_04]: That's correct.
19:08
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, I can't believe you got her name right.
19:09
[SPEAKER_04]: That's crazy.
19:11
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, she right now has a 65% chance at winning.
19:17
[SPEAKER_04]: But that's a recent thing.
19:19
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm not too long ago at just at the beginning of the month here, Rick Jackson had a 55% chance of winning.
19:24
[SPEAKER_04]: So
19:25
[SPEAKER_04]: I don't know if something happened there, but pulling on couchy has Rick Jackson at 47.6 and Keisha Lance bottoms up 47.4.
19:33
[SPEAKER_05]: So I can tell you this, being from there, everyone hates her, and I give me Rick Jackson in that one.
19:42
[SPEAKER_05]: We're not going to do all the governors, but some of the bigger states like that, that actually matter with the bigger cities.
19:47
[SPEAKER_05]: Yes, I'll tell you who it is, give me Jackson in that one.
19:56
[SPEAKER_05]: I can't see the rest of the state rallying behind it.
19:58
[SPEAKER_05]: And that's what's weird about Georgia.
19:59
[SPEAKER_05]: Like, I think you're going to have a red governor.
20:01
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think you're going to have a blue senator.
20:04
[SPEAKER_05]: And it's going to go along with the black guy.
20:06
[SPEAKER_05]: Because I don't think he's up this term, right?
20:09
[SPEAKER_05]: War knock?
20:10
[SPEAKER_02]: No.
20:10
[SPEAKER_05]: War knock in balls.
20:11
[SPEAKER_02]: And one senator every, well, um, uh, uh, um, uh, uh, uh,
20:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, their senators are sick of your term.
20:20
[SPEAKER_02]: So every third election, none of your senators are up and then one and the other and the next two.
20:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
20:29
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, Dan, then we get some sponsors to put this shit wagon on the air.
20:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Obviously, first and foremost, today is ethos.com slash drink in bros talking about life insurance.
20:42
[SPEAKER_05]: unbelievably valuable if you have a family if you were married or let's just say you got some money and you got a bunch of stuff and you don't want to go in anywhere else or whatever, man.
20:57
[SPEAKER_05]: Life insurance, life insurance.
20:58
[SPEAKER_05]: Maybe you want to give it to a cousin or something.
21:00
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, you can do whatever you want.
21:03
[SPEAKER_05]: It depends on how close you are with your relatives, but I can tell you the first thing that I did when I got married was I got life insurance.
21:10
[SPEAKER_05]: The second after I got that marriage license, I called, I got life insurance, not only for me, but also my wife and then I kept bumping it up over
21:22
[SPEAKER_05]: of the years as we had more children and all that other stuff right now and do it when you're younger versus older as you turn older the quotes will go higher also if you've got some medical issues and all that other stuff I would knock this out early because you never know what's going to happen in life.
21:37
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm a great case on this one for Christ 6, but I cannot recommend life insurance enough.
21:46
[SPEAKER_05]: Right now, the ethos makes it super easy, getting life insurance.
21:50
[SPEAKER_05]: It's 100% online, you can get a quote in seconds, apply in minutes, and get same day coverage.
21:57
[SPEAKER_05]: There's no medical exam, you just answer a few simple health questions, you can get up to $3 million in coverage.
22:05
[SPEAKER_05]: some policies are as low as $30 a month and you'll get your lowest rates from their network of trusted carriers ethos has a 4.9 rating out of 5 stars on trust pilot with over 5,500 reviews.
22:19
[SPEAKER_05]: Take 10 minutes!
22:23
[SPEAKER_05]: To get covered today with life insurance through ethos, get your free quotes at ethos.com slash drinking bros. That is ETHOS.com slash drinking bros.
22:36
[SPEAKER_05]: Application time is may vary, rates may vary, as I told you earlier.
22:41
[SPEAKER_05]: And those trust pilot ratings are as of August 1st, 2026.
22:45
[SPEAKER_05]: In case you're wondering when everybody changes those, next up on the old program, we got gospead.com forward slash drinking bros. We're not new to this.
22:58
[SPEAKER_05]: We're true to this.
22:59
[SPEAKER_05]: They've been with us for over 10 years.
23:03
[SPEAKER_05]: And they're giving you another insane deal here.
23:07
[SPEAKER_05]: So if you go to the sites on gospead.com for slash drinking bros, you're going to see some crazy deals.
23:14
[SPEAKER_05]: with a promo code drinking bros you're going to get an extra 10% on top of whatever crazy deal you decide.
23:22
[SPEAKER_05]: Christmas is around the corner.
23:24
[SPEAKER_05]: Always get a big ticket item here for me and my wife and then obviously the kids get all their gifts.
23:30
[SPEAKER_05]: A mattress is that's top of the list for a lot of people, man.
23:34
[SPEAKER_05]: And I highly recommend the bundle package.
23:36
[SPEAKER_05]: See a adjustable base, that's the mattress and that's the pillows combined together.
23:40
[SPEAKER_05]: Comes with a remote control.
23:41
[SPEAKER_05]: So you can go up, see down, see all around, see.
23:44
[SPEAKER_05]: Advibrates, which is fun, and it's got lights underneath it.
23:48
[SPEAKER_05]: So let's say you're getting up in the middle of the night to piss.
23:50
[SPEAKER_05]: just kind of looking down to the ground, saying, where am I, you can hit that switch and you're good to go if you're partner, man or woman, goes to sleep before or after you or just wants to sleep in an upright position.
24:05
[SPEAKER_05]: You can get the split king and then I'll give you two remote controls instead of one that way you can control your own destiny at nights of whether or not you want to
24:17
[SPEAKER_05]: love this company got to go speds in every single room my house got the pillows in every single room of my house and uh... yeah welcome back to the program also check out their mattresses for RVs and vans dude um... they're always innovating over there and uh... and yeah the word is spread and uh... go speds unstoppable go spend dot com forward slash drinking bros today use that from a code drinking bros
24:43
[SPEAKER_05]: at checkout to get an extra 10% off that are already in saying deals over there next up.
24:53
[SPEAKER_05]: I got American financing.net slash drinking bros. Let's face its prices for the last few years.
25:01
[SPEAKER_05]: continue to be high and it's been exhausting if you've been leaner on credit cards lately just a couple of the basics like grocery's gas and utility bills, you're essentially paying a survival tax of 20% interest or more.
25:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Why keep hand in your harder earned paycheck to the big banks when you could keep it for your family.
25:18
[SPEAKER_05]: Our friends over to American financing have a better way.
25:21
[SPEAKER_05]: They're
25:21
[SPEAKER_05]: help in homeowners tap into their home equity to pay off high interest debts with mortgage rates currently in the fives.
25:28
[SPEAKER_05]: On average American financing is saving their customers $800 a month that is simply an interest fees that you'd be paying on your credit cards.
25:35
[SPEAKER_05]: That's nearly $10,000 a year back in your pocket.
25:38
[SPEAKER_05]: It's not just a loan that is a total financial reset.
25:41
[SPEAKER_05]: It takes about just 10 minutes to find out which you can save.
25:44
[SPEAKER_05]: There are no upfront fees and no obligation to talk to a salary-based mortgage consultant.
25:49
[SPEAKER_05]: And here's the kicker.
25:50
[SPEAKER_05]: start today and you could even delay up to two mortgage payments up front American financing is America's home for home loans call today eight eight six six eight eight seven twenty two seventy five that is eight six six eight eight seven twenty two seventy five or head on over to American financing dot net slash drinking bros that are better business peer disclaimer is that NMLS one eight two three three four at NMLS consumer access dot
26:15
[SPEAKER_05]: org.
26:16
[SPEAKER_05]: And then last but not least, obviously, we're brought to you by Kalshi today.
26:20
[SPEAKER_05]: Just down to the Kalshi app, it is KALSH.
26:24
[SPEAKER_05]: I pop in that promo code drinking $25 trade.
26:29
[SPEAKER_05]: We'll get you $25 free on top of that to trade with.
26:34
[SPEAKER_05]: Tuesday nights we will be brought to you by calcium we will be checking these predictions because you can get in and out of these so if your candidate is winning or losing that you chose before the polls close at 7 p.m. and let's say things start going walky later on man you can pull the money out and put it on something else if you want to.
26:55
[SPEAKER_05]: And no one lets you do that, to be honest with you.
26:58
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, shout out to Cal Schiemann for sponsor in the show on Tuesday nights.
27:04
[SPEAKER_05]: And we will be going over these odds, man.
27:06
[SPEAKER_05]: And there are predictions all night long.
27:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Do you want to go to South Carolina next?
27:13
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm going up and down the coaster.
27:15
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, we can go to South Carolina.
27:16
[SPEAKER_05]: All right.
27:17
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, here's why this one's interesting.
27:18
[SPEAKER_05]: I was watching CNN last night's.
27:21
[SPEAKER_05]: They claim.
27:23
[SPEAKER_05]: that the Democratic candidates is within the margin of error to knock off Lindsey Graham's sister.
27:30
[SPEAKER_05]: Do you believe that?
27:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Me neither.
27:34
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't care who you throw in there down south here.
27:38
[SPEAKER_05]: They call it the Ruby Red State.
27:40
[SPEAKER_05]: But it's so red that it doesn't matter who runs they will win.
27:45
[SPEAKER_05]: Even though,
27:47
[SPEAKER_05]: She was horrific during debates and everything else and has zero experience in politics.
27:52
[SPEAKER_05]: She will still win, but they got to find a better candidate after that.
27:56
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, for real.
27:57
[SPEAKER_02]: South Carolina.
27:58
[SPEAKER_02]: South Carolina.
27:59
[SPEAKER_05]: What I mean, look, she'll vote the way Trump wants.
28:03
[SPEAKER_05]: Trump came out and endorsed her immediately after Lady G died.
28:06
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, you've got the same thing.
28:08
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so on VOTE Hub, her in polling grammas up 1.5% told you, which I guess technically is within their margin of error.
28:19
[SPEAKER_04]: Oh, yeah.
28:20
[SPEAKER_04]: But yeah, we can go Georgia, Blue, South Carolina, Red.
28:28
[SPEAKER_04]: All right, and next North Carolina.
28:32
[SPEAKER_05]: Let's go North Carolina.
28:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, that the Kaka Lacky dude, PD Pablo states.
28:38
[SPEAKER_05]: Ah, it's Roy Cooper.
28:40
[SPEAKER_02]: There you got.
28:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, Cooper went easily.
28:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep.
28:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Let me see here.
28:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I think Roy Cooper plus, probably six to eight.
28:54
[SPEAKER_04]: I've got him at six.
28:57
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, and it sucks.
28:59
[SPEAKER_04]: All right.
29:00
[SPEAKER_04]: Well, yeah.
29:00
[SPEAKER_04]: On couch.
29:01
[SPEAKER_04]: He's got a 96.5% chance of winning.
29:04
[SPEAKER_05]: What is the deal, man?
29:05
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, we were here when he got elected.
29:09
[SPEAKER_05]: He's been in politics for 40 fucking years.
29:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Every other position usually goes red.
29:14
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't know what it is with this particular guy.
29:18
[SPEAKER_05]: He fucking sucks and it's not like he's in entertaining dude or as any charisma or anything else.
29:24
[SPEAKER_05]: He's fucking old and he's been in North Carolina politics for 40 years.
29:29
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't understand it, but yeah, he just keeps winning.
29:32
[SPEAKER_05]: So I'm not betting against him in this one.
29:36
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, unfortunately, I think Cooper's gonna get that blue Senate seat here.
29:49
[SPEAKER_04]: who 14 is not going to have and I don't think.
29:51
[SPEAKER_05]: No, I think it's going to be 14.
29:52
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't think it will be a little closer, but who's the other candidates in Michael Wattley?
29:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Yep.
29:57
[SPEAKER_05]: So if you guys were a call, I think this is the see that they were trying to get Laura Trump to run for.
30:02
[SPEAKER_05]: And at the last second, she kind of said no, unclear why, but I think her answer was she's spending a lot of time in Florida.
30:13
[SPEAKER_05]: And maybe that is the case with a family in Trump and all that other
30:19
[SPEAKER_05]: I think if she would have ran, she could have had a good shot at this.
30:23
[SPEAKER_05]: I think a Trump on the ballot would have helped.
30:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe it's not the most popular person right now, but North Carolina of all the states isn't really feeling the pinch, mostly because the governor wiped out gas tax.
30:41
[SPEAKER_05]: Yep.
30:42
[SPEAKER_05]: When I drove into work today, it was 308.
30:45
[SPEAKER_05]: 308's was a guess.
30:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Every other state could do that to if they really wanted to.
30:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, they could.
30:49
[SPEAKER_02]: It's choosing not to.
30:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Yep.
30:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep.
30:51
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep.
30:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Do you know the governor was?
30:53
[SPEAKER_02]: No.
30:54
[SPEAKER_02]: Right Cooper.
30:54
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
30:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, I mean, but he like the the reason the other governor's aren't doing it is because they want to stick into Trump.
31:03
[SPEAKER_02]: So they're bleeding their own constituents so they can win this election.
31:06
[SPEAKER_02]: So think think of that whatever you want, I guess.
31:09
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
31:10
[SPEAKER_05]: I agree.
31:11
[SPEAKER_05]: And again, seeing 308's, I haven't seen that in
31:15
[SPEAKER_05]: six months here.
31:16
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, call it what it is.
31:20
[SPEAKER_05]: I know going up up the line there.
31:22
[SPEAKER_05]: Is it Virginia?
31:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Is that next?
31:24
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so up next, we got Virginia.
31:26
[SPEAKER_04]: This is on on on 270dwind.com.
31:30
[SPEAKER_04]: Has it rate it as a safe blue state?
31:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, um, I think Virginia's got that gas taxi we're speaking about and I I know Maryland got a glass of glass.
31:40
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, Maryland's input, but he came out in particular and said, look, I'm keeping this fucking tax in there and see an n-pressum and he goes, no, so to meet the press and all those other people and he goes, no, you know, we need to stay blah, blah, blah, and then shift it away from it.
31:56
[SPEAKER_05]: and then sort of blaming Trump for the war, but it's like, no, you could knock off a dollar off the gas if you wanted to.
32:01
[SPEAKER_05]: You just don't want to.
32:03
[SPEAKER_05]: Virginia for me is blue.
32:04
[SPEAKER_05]: I get relatives there and all that shit and like they're all on that side.
32:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, who's the candidate?
32:15
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so it's Mark Warner versus Bert Mitsuzawa.
32:19
[SPEAKER_04]: Musuzawa.
32:20
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay, if you can't pronounce it, then that means the voters.
32:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, not a good sign.
32:25
[SPEAKER_04]: Kashi has Mark Warner at a 98.8% chance at winning.
32:30
[SPEAKER_04]: Oh, boy.
32:31
[SPEAKER_04]: They're forecasting plus 24.
32:37
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, so not close and and Dan correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't everybody from DC live in Virginia Or Marilyn one of the two okay, but you got Virginia blue Damn I'm looking here So I got a long list here of every race Which which Virginia district is that?
33:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Senate this is Senate.
33:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
33:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, so let me get to the Senate
33:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom, boom.
33:09
[SPEAKER_05]: Those odds are high.
33:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Those are hunger rounds, by the way.
33:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean Virginia's gonna go.
33:15
[SPEAKER_02]: Blue.
33:16
[SPEAKER_02]: How would imagine?
33:19
[SPEAKER_05]: Next up, what do we got, Maryland?
33:21
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, next up we got, uh, yeah.
33:24
[SPEAKER_04]: We got, uh, oh man, I don't even know.
33:27
[SPEAKER_04]: Rhode Island, for sure.
33:28
[SPEAKER_05]: No, good, Maryland, I think is right above it, right?
33:31
[SPEAKER_05]: West Virginia?
33:32
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, West Virginia's right here.
33:34
[SPEAKER_05]: Yep.
33:36
[SPEAKER_05]: We'll go West Virginia.
33:37
[SPEAKER_05]: Pretty easy guess.
33:38
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah West Virginia is always red.
33:39
[SPEAKER_05]: I can't remember West Virginia not being red.
33:41
[SPEAKER_05]: Can you?
33:43
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean Joe Manchin was a Democrat, but then he switched.
33:48
[SPEAKER_02]: He did eventually, but he was never a leftist term.
33:54
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean you take that for what it's worth.
33:56
[SPEAKER_02]: He was a, I wouldn't even say a blue dog Democrat.
33:59
[SPEAKER_02]: He was just a pro-cole Democrat and people voted for him because he,
34:08
[SPEAKER_04]: kept them working in the coal mines really I mean that's I mean he made a lot of money off it to you but that's pretty much what happened okay um who are these candidates right now yeah so right now it's Shelley Moore capito and Rachel Fettie Anderson Shelley is the Republican and she has a 97.7% chance to win on Calshy
34:31
[SPEAKER_05]: for for West Virginia.
34:32
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, okay.
34:33
[SPEAKER_04]: So not close for sure.
34:34
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
34:35
[SPEAKER_04]: All right.
34:36
[SPEAKER_04]: That's pretty safe to to say.
34:39
[SPEAKER_04]: Next up, we got Delaware.
34:42
[SPEAKER_04]: Delaware.
34:43
[SPEAKER_05]: Delaware is that button?
34:46
[SPEAKER_05]: Now where's he's from?
34:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, Delaware's traditionally blue blue.
34:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I would say blue for this one I can't remember Delaware ever being read actually.
34:56
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, it's a 99% chance going to Chris Cunes Cunes Mama used to sweep those off the porch
35:08
[SPEAKER_04]: Next we got New Jersey with Cory Booker on the on the board there.
35:13
[SPEAKER_04]: I think that's pretty Who is he going against he's going up against Justin Murphy?
35:19
[SPEAKER_05]: No, unfortunately It's weird man.
35:25
[SPEAKER_05]: There's a lot of red in New Jersey like in certain areas kind of like a California, but they always end up going blue So give me Booker in this one
35:35
[SPEAKER_05]: New Jersey.
35:35
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, he's not going to lose.
35:36
[SPEAKER_04]: I don't think so either.
35:37
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, he's got a 97.4% chance to win on Calshy.
35:41
[SPEAKER_04]: He's his margin forecast is 23.1.
35:45
[SPEAKER_04]: God damn Yeah, losing no.
35:48
[SPEAKER_04]: I also don't know the other candidate Yeah, because he's nowhere close to winning.
35:52
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, but also name recognition helps.
35:54
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, for sure this shit like even a Steve Hilton
35:58
[SPEAKER_04]: I at least knew who that was before he started running in California, who do we got up in the next blue we got a Rhode Island up next we can speed through some of these though These are I abuse Rhode Island's blue, right?
36:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep, damn thinning.
36:11
[SPEAKER_02]: You got to get it blue.
36:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, yeah, I mean for all of human history Is that what you're laughing which is it ever going red?
36:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I don't know I mean bro, I don't know
36:22
[SPEAKER_02]: No, probably not Vermont, yeah, but, I mean, Vermont's kind of an independent area.
36:31
[SPEAKER_02]: New Hampshire, I think has had some repubes.
36:33
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know that Rhode Island has.
36:36
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay.
36:37
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, Cowcheys got Jack Reed, the Democrat at plus 29.7.
36:41
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
36:43
[SPEAKER_05]: Damn, dude.
36:44
[SPEAKER_05]: That's an ass beating.
36:45
[SPEAKER_05]: All right.
36:46
[SPEAKER_05]: So those will probably be called early on Tuesday.
36:48
[SPEAKER_05]: And there's a lot of these 15 minutes after the polls over.
36:51
[SPEAKER_05]: You'll see they'll jump up really quickly.
36:53
[SPEAKER_05]: If you're wondering why, this is why.
36:56
[SPEAKER_05]: We all kind of know.
36:57
[SPEAKER_05]: And as soon as they get the first five to, let's call it six counties in there, they'll end up calling this race.
37:03
[SPEAKER_05]: What's up next, Blue?
37:05
[SPEAKER_05]: Next up we got Massachusetts.
37:07
[SPEAKER_04]: The Chutes.
37:07
[SPEAKER_04]: We had Marky versus John Dean.
37:11
[SPEAKER_04]: Mm-hmm.
37:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Massachusetts is another one.
37:13
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't remember it being red, can you?
37:17
[SPEAKER_02]: No, Massachusetts hasn't had a Republican in either chamber in 30 years.
37:23
[SPEAKER_02]: Holy shit.
37:25
[SPEAKER_02]: No, none of their congressional districts, nor their senator has been Republican in over the well, yeah, this will be over 30 years.
37:32
[SPEAKER_02]: Why is that?
37:33
[SPEAKER_05]: I would have said with Boston being there that it was gritty, fucking workers and Mark Wahlberg beating up Asians and shit.
37:41
[SPEAKER_02]: No, no, it's, I mean, they Boston has a socialist mayor.
37:45
[SPEAKER_05]: So, oh, you're right.
37:46
[SPEAKER_05]: That's right, Goddamn, I always forget about that Chinese check.
37:49
[SPEAKER_05]: So she shows up and says something racist about white people.
37:51
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it's where the Puyak came from back in the day.
37:54
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm dead serious.
37:55
[SPEAKER_05]: That's where it came from, but leave so we did, we did a bunch of stories on her back in the day.
37:57
[SPEAKER_05]: Got in hit it, if you want.
37:57
[SPEAKER_05]: If you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want, if you want
38:15
[SPEAKER_05]: So that Chinese mayor, Shijuan chicken.
38:18
[SPEAKER_05]: Where are we going next, Blue?
38:19
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so up next we got, let's go to New Hampshire.
38:25
[SPEAKER_05]: Also kind of an obvious one.
38:26
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, that's always blue.
38:28
[SPEAKER_05]: I can't remember that.
38:29
[SPEAKER_05]: Or independent.
38:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, but yeah, it's this is blue, right?
38:34
[SPEAKER_04]: Mm-hmm.
38:34
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay.
38:35
[SPEAKER_04]: Nope.
38:35
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
38:36
[SPEAKER_04]: Calshy's got a matter.
38:37
[SPEAKER_04]: The Democrat had a 91.7% chance to win on that one with that.
38:42
[SPEAKER_04]: Plus 8.5.
38:42
[SPEAKER_04]: Good fortune.
38:43
[SPEAKER_04]: Mm-hmm.
38:45
[SPEAKER_04]: Um, next up, we got a fun one.
38:48
[SPEAKER_04]: Main.
38:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, right.
38:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Main.
38:51
[SPEAKER_05]: This is where things get really interesting.
38:53
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm going to ask you what Calshy says first.
38:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Or the people that are predicting on Calshy say first.
38:59
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so Troy Jackson is at a 68% to plus 2.2 over Susan Collins, Susan Collins.
39:08
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm sorry, Troy Jackson.
39:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Susan Collins is for real.
39:14
[SPEAKER_05]: I got Susan Collins in this.
39:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I would say Susan Collins by two and a half to three points.
39:20
[SPEAKER_02]: That's my prediction.
39:21
[SPEAKER_05]: So that's, that's big boy odds.
39:25
[SPEAKER_05]: Let's say can you go back to that if I threw a hundo on that?
39:28
[SPEAKER_05]: What would that throw me out of it?
39:33
[SPEAKER_04]: two hundred eighty nine bucks three so that's three to one of us and do let's go yes uh... i'm going to happen yet so i saw graph uh... yesterday actually that showed how much pulling had had uh... main wrong in the past and it was always using columns of course uh... and she always overperformed the polling expectations i would expect to be called to win it's because nobody likes her but they don't want
40:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, it's, you know, it's like, uh, it's like Taco Bell two o'clock in the morning.
40:07
[SPEAKER_02]: You're not going to tell anybody you're doing it.
40:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, but you're doing it.
40:10
[SPEAKER_05]: You're not proud of it.
40:11
[SPEAKER_05]: The next day is going to be obviously awful, but that's Susan Collins.
40:16
[SPEAKER_05]: And she never votes with Trump for any of the shit, save act, all of it, but God, I, I, I, I heater too, and I hate to say it, but, you know,
40:27
[SPEAKER_05]: There is no good candidate there and this guy fucked his cousin and they ensued kids.
40:31
[SPEAKER_05]: So, there you go.
40:33
[SPEAKER_05]: The other one was a Nazi.
40:34
[SPEAKER_05]: He got out of there.
40:36
[SPEAKER_05]: They're going to go Susan Collins.
40:38
[SPEAKER_05]: What's up next?
40:39
[SPEAKER_04]: Next up, we got let's go for Ohio here.
40:45
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, and we can talk about the governor.
40:46
[SPEAKER_05]: I was going to say this is a good one for governor as well because of everything that's going on here especially in the last 72 hours.
40:54
[SPEAKER_05]: Let's call it.
40:56
[SPEAKER_05]: All right for governor.
40:57
[SPEAKER_05]: It's Ramos Swami against any actin Who do you got?
41:03
[SPEAKER_05]: Ramos Swami.
41:04
[SPEAKER_05]: I've got Ramos Swami too.
41:06
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, Luke.
41:06
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm going to send you her speech last night.
41:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Actually, if you want to go to drink and browse podcasts on
41:14
[SPEAKER_05]: Instagram, I posted the video last night's.
41:16
[SPEAKER_05]: She was wasted up in Toledo, Ohio last night.
41:21
[SPEAKER_05]: Wasted, and this is the second time now in the last 10 days that she's shown up in an event drunk, and they made her take like 48 hours off after this.
41:35
[SPEAKER_01]: Good to be back here at UAW.
41:40
[SPEAKER_01]: It's about truth and justice.
41:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I just wrote on the word back here.
41:47
[SPEAKER_01]: That is, I'm honored to be here.
41:49
[SPEAKER_01]: We've been in Toledo a lot.
41:51
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a big energy going on here.
41:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I can feel it.
41:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And, um...
41:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh my goodness, and at first of all, I just want to say to you, you know, it has been quite a week this past week, and I didn't, Eric and I just want to thank everyone, your support and love have met the wall, it's so good.
42:15
[SPEAKER_02]: She is at the moment plus 4.3.
42:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Now some people are saying it's because of the commercial.
42:25
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't believe that.
42:26
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, his just the favorability, this is what they're basing it on.
42:31
[SPEAKER_02]: Some of it at least is Ramus Hombie's favorability amongst Republicans has dropped substantially in his favorability amongst independence has dropped to minus 26 because of that ad with the abusive mom.
42:50
[SPEAKER_02]: or whatever right and that yeah I mean he deserve if he loses he deserves it it'll be an unforced error that was completely unnecessary because of that at yeah um... if he loses it'll be his fault and he'll have fucked the country over and is a state he'll have fucked ohio over and he should suffer for that uh... because that was a really stupid thing to do but
43:17
[SPEAKER_02]: favorability doesn't as you see with Susan Collins doesn't really translate into votes necessarily and I think Acton's communist bullshit and being fucking shit-faced at every live event is gonna be too much for people to it'll be too much in people's heads to overcome I think she's I think he's gonna win by like a point-and-a-half.
43:37
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it's gonna be close too.
43:39
[SPEAKER_05]: I would say two to three points tops.
43:40
[SPEAKER_05]: That's it.
43:42
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't think there's any chance he wins by two or more.
43:44
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it's one and a half at most.
43:46
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, is that go late then?
43:48
[SPEAKER_05]: Maybe.
43:49
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, I was always pretty good about getting their votes in.
43:52
[SPEAKER_05]: But A and E be acting a fool.
43:53
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, yeah.
43:54
[SPEAKER_04]: No, that's good.
43:55
[SPEAKER_04]: Thank you.
43:57
[SPEAKER_04]: So yeah, Kashi has acting at 80% with plus 4.8.
44:04
[SPEAKER_05]: I think and then a vote hub has a polling at plus three, which those are always within four and then it could be worse as Dan said earlier at the top of the show, just based on Republicans is not wanting to do any of this shit.
44:19
[SPEAKER_05]: I know I haven't.
44:21
[SPEAKER_05]: I think put a hundred dollars on Rameswami and see what that will get you there.
44:33
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm in.
44:34
[SPEAKER_05]: I am in.
44:35
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay.
44:36
[SPEAKER_04]: Personally, I think Amy Acton's probably gonna win this one personally.
44:40
[SPEAKER_04]: That's just me.
44:41
[SPEAKER_04]: Why don't you think that?
44:41
[SPEAKER_04]: Because of the ad?
44:42
[SPEAKER_04]: I think the ad.
44:43
[SPEAKER_04]: I think people just don't like the Vekromoswami.
44:46
[SPEAKER_04]: I think he's not the most likable dude.
44:51
[SPEAKER_04]: And yeah.
44:52
[SPEAKER_05]: So I can tell you with some of my friends in Ohio said.
44:55
[SPEAKER_05]: Yes.
44:57
[SPEAKER_05]: And they're not racist, but like, I have Indian friends in all that other shit,
45:04
[SPEAKER_05]: are we ready are we doing this so we have an Indian takeover is governor of the states and that is been a back and forth there.
45:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Um because there's this argument over the HP1 visas and all the people from India coming in and all that's so they're shits and
45:21
[SPEAKER_05]: My friends wish he would embrace that more in the campaign trail and talk to Bouts, and Dan you talk about this all the time, assimilation and getting your message out to voters of who you are and why you're running and I don't think he's on the best job of that.
45:36
[SPEAKER_02]: He's done okay, it hasn't gotten a lot of press because people were trying to force it the other direction but
45:43
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a drag, everything, but the H1BVs of the thing I think he took the wrong stance on that.
45:49
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, there's a reasonable way to have that discussion, and it's that we need an immediate demand, and there are people that are trained on it.
46:02
[SPEAKER_02]: We might have to bring them in to backfill for some time and then get them to fuck out.
46:06
[SPEAKER_02]: And then the secondary question is are they actually trained on it or they go to one of these Indian diploma mills and they don't know what the fuck they're doing and we're bringing them over for no reason.
46:15
[SPEAKER_02]: That's there's a whole lot of conversation to be had there.
46:18
[SPEAKER_02]: And
46:21
[SPEAKER_02]: He, you know, kind of tiptoed around it.
46:25
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think if, I think people want to hear, if there's any question about, look, you're not, it isn't a right to be a senator in the United States or a governor.
46:36
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a fucking privilege to even have that opportunity.
46:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Even if you are a citizen, it's a privilege.
46:42
[SPEAKER_02]: It's a right to run, but it's a privilege to have the people select you for something like that.
46:46
[SPEAKER_02]: And,
46:50
[SPEAKER_02]: If there's any question about your policy or about your loyalty or to a particular program or the country itself, you better go out there and make it clear, and if you don't, then that's on you.
47:00
[SPEAKER_02]: It's not racist for somebody to look at an Indian dude who runs a million dollars off a medical and tech to
47:11
[SPEAKER_02]: because that's two different avenues.
47:13
[SPEAKER_02]: One is the forget about the Indian thing, just the tech side.
47:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Are you one of these fucking billionaire tech dudes who's gonna bring in a bunch of fucking slave labor to displace American workers?
47:22
[SPEAKER_02]: They're so fucking you.
47:23
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't care what you look like, right?
47:25
[SPEAKER_02]: That's how people think.
47:26
[SPEAKER_02]: So, either address that to people satisfaction or don't whine when you fucking lose.
47:34
[SPEAKER_02]: To be honest, I mean, yeah, that's pretty simple.
47:37
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, there is also a hotly contested Senate race going on in Ohio as well.
47:42
[SPEAKER_05]: Is that he used it?
47:44
[SPEAKER_05]: It is.
47:44
[SPEAKER_04]: It is John Houston versus Sherrod Brown.
47:47
[SPEAKER_04]: I think it's Sherrod.
47:49
[SPEAKER_04]: Sherrod Brown.
47:50
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, you could be right about that.
47:51
[SPEAKER_04]: Is he white?
47:52
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
47:53
[SPEAKER_05]: So maybe Sherrod, then, like I said?
47:55
[SPEAKER_05]: Who knows?
47:57
[SPEAKER_05]: Who knows?
47:57
[SPEAKER_05]: My look, my dad's name is Jerome for Christ's sex.
48:00
[SPEAKER_05]: So he's white.
48:04
[SPEAKER_05]: So you kind of have the pass for all the NWRG use.
48:06
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, I feel like it.
48:08
[SPEAKER_05]: Jerome!
48:10
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, this is another one where the odds are going the other way.
48:14
[SPEAKER_05]: I am taking the underdog and this one, I guess, whoever I'm predicting against here.
48:21
[SPEAKER_05]: So give me a hue-stit in this one.
48:24
[SPEAKER_05]: Throw 100 on that, see without a payoff.
48:26
[SPEAKER_05]: Because that's another set of big boy odds there.
48:30
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, 317.
48:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay, so these three don't want.
48:33
[SPEAKER_02]: I've got a hoisted winning at 1.5.
48:34
[SPEAKER_02]: 1.5 to 2.5.
48:40
[SPEAKER_05]: I was going to say too, I think it's going to be close as well.
48:43
[SPEAKER_05]: I think Ohio is going to be very close, most of the nights.
48:46
[SPEAKER_05]: They are good at getting their votes in, but it would probably be around 11 to let's call it midnight there.
48:52
[SPEAKER_04]: What do we got up next?
48:53
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, the vote hub has polls showing the Democrat up plus 3.5.
49:00
[SPEAKER_04]: So easily could go narrowly to their public and I think.
49:03
[SPEAKER_04]: Nope.
49:04
[SPEAKER_04]: Nope.
49:06
[SPEAKER_04]: Next up, we got.
49:10
[SPEAKER_04]: Let's do, we can do Kentucky.
49:11
[SPEAKER_04]: We can speedrun some.
49:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, Kentucky's red.
49:16
[SPEAKER_05]: I can't remember Kentucky not being red.
49:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, which races this?
49:20
[SPEAKER_04]: This is Andy Bar versus Charles Booker.
49:23
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, Kentucky.
49:25
[SPEAKER_04]: No, Kentucky's red.
49:26
[SPEAKER_05]: Kentucky's red there.
49:28
[SPEAKER_04]: Tennessee, Bill Haggerty.
49:31
[SPEAKER_04]: It's the Republican.
49:32
[SPEAKER_04]: You're gonna win.
49:33
[SPEAKER_04]: Red.
49:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep.
49:36
[SPEAKER_05]: You got red and Tennessee?
49:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Mark Quita against Marquita Bradshaw.
49:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
49:41
[SPEAKER_02]: I wasn't trying to try and make.
49:44
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, you can.
49:45
[SPEAKER_02]: You don't know that.
49:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, we got a picture of her.
49:48
[SPEAKER_05]: I feel like it's a natural.
49:49
[SPEAKER_05]: We got a picture there.
49:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, there it is.
49:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay.
49:52
[SPEAKER_05]: There's Marquita.
49:53
[SPEAKER_05]: She looks exactly like you think she does.
49:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Man, she's dressed like Rosa Parks.
50:00
[SPEAKER_03]: Today's world.
50:02
[SPEAKER_05]: Sorry, it'll be at the back of the bus after choosing nights.
50:07
[SPEAKER_04]: We do, we get up next.
50:09
[SPEAKER_04]: So I know that there's some interesting house races going on in Tennessee.
50:14
[SPEAKER_05]: We'll do the house afterwards.
50:15
[SPEAKER_05]: We'll get through the Senate first and then we'll do the house as well.
50:18
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, next up we got, let's just go Alabama.
50:26
[SPEAKER_04]: Red.
50:27
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
50:27
[SPEAKER_04]: No need.
50:28
[SPEAKER_04]: No need.
50:28
[SPEAKER_04]: No don't even need to mention that one.
50:30
[SPEAKER_04]: No, uh, uh, Mississippi.
50:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Red.
50:34
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't remember Mississippi being blue, right?
50:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Not in a statewide.
50:38
[SPEAKER_02]: No.
50:38
[SPEAKER_02]: No.
50:39
[SPEAKER_02]: They'll have some democratic house members, but not this, no.
50:44
[SPEAKER_05]: No.
50:45
[SPEAKER_02]: All right.
50:46
[SPEAKER_02]: Then let's go to Louisiana.
50:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, yeah, same.
50:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Brad.
50:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep.
50:51
[SPEAKER_02]: I've been out again.
50:52
[SPEAKER_02]: They'll get a Democrat governor.
50:54
[SPEAKER_02]: I think, but not very often.
50:59
[SPEAKER_04]: All right.
51:00
[SPEAKER_04]: So Louisiana or can saw.
51:03
[SPEAKER_04]: That's red, right?
51:04
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
51:07
[SPEAKER_04]: Let's go.
51:07
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay.
51:08
[SPEAKER_04]: So then let's go to Iowa.
51:09
[SPEAKER_04]: This is a little bit closer on calcium.
51:12
[SPEAKER_04]: Who
51:20
[SPEAKER_05]: I've got Iowa red, what do you got?
51:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, yeah, Iowa's red.
51:27
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, the polling has Republican plus.
51:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Point five, but remember Iowa was a six point margin in Latin 24.
51:36
[SPEAKER_02]: They fucked it up by actually an eight point margin.
51:38
[SPEAKER_02]: So expect, hence in by six or more.
51:41
[SPEAKER_05]: And that was the one where the lady quit, the polling lady, she was down.
51:45
[SPEAKER_05]: She was down.
51:47
[SPEAKER_05]: She got out of there after that one because she said plus 15, I think for Kamal or something like that was nuts
51:53
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, give me red for Iowa.
51:56
[SPEAKER_05]: What does counts you have it up?
51:57
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, it's been narrowing lately.
51:59
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm not sure why, but it has actually incident 55% of the Republican.
52:03
[SPEAKER_04]: Um, so she is the likely winner there on a vote hub, the polls in Iowa have to hurry up at 0.2.
52:11
[SPEAKER_04]: The media has really been pushing Iowa to, um, they last week.
52:16
[SPEAKER_02]: They think it's some kind of like bell weather, and it's not, and it's also not going
52:22
[SPEAKER_02]: anywhere near Democrats.
52:24
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know why they think that.
52:25
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't either.
52:27
[SPEAKER_05]: I think they want it, too, and they want to scare you into it.
52:31
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, probably not worth betting on, though, unfortunately, with Ashley Hinson at 55%.
52:35
[SPEAKER_04]: No.
52:35
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, you could bet percentages.
52:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Do they have a true?
52:38
[SPEAKER_02]: You can do that.
52:39
[SPEAKER_02]: What do they have for that?
52:41
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it'll be six to eight points in that range.
52:51
[SPEAKER_04]: Oh yeah, um, that's at 12% or so.
52:54
[SPEAKER_04]: Oh, that is juicy, son, pop that in and pop in a hunch.
52:58
[SPEAKER_02]: 580 or 5601, yeah.
53:01
[SPEAKER_02]: I would take that.
53:02
[SPEAKER_05]: Who?
53:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Balls.
53:04
[SPEAKER_02]: I put that.
53:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
53:07
[SPEAKER_04]: All right.
53:07
[SPEAKER_04]: Next up.
53:10
[SPEAKER_04]: We got Minnesota.
53:12
[SPEAKER_04]: This is a fun one.
53:14
[SPEAKER_04]: I think.
53:15
[SPEAKER_04]: You know, it actually is.
53:17
[SPEAKER_05]: Um,
53:18
[SPEAKER_05]: This is our home image shelter full of there and she's great.
53:23
[SPEAKER_05]: I wish she would win.
53:25
[SPEAKER_02]: No, it's not Minnesota doesn't trend that way.
53:29
[SPEAKER_02]: But it'll be closer than the five they have listed.
53:31
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it'll be three and a half points and Peggy Flanagan wins.
53:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, but love to be pleasantly surprised by that, but it doesn't seem likely.
53:44
[SPEAKER_02]: What do the actual polls say?
53:46
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so the actual polls have Peggy Flanagan at plus 5.8.
53:52
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know where they're pulling from, but the polling average is 5.1 right now, but yeah, it's either way, it's outside the margin.
53:59
[SPEAKER_02]: It's outside the margin for even the Delta created by the improper polling.
54:05
[SPEAKER_02]: So it would have to be even that
54:09
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, if they missed by six in Minnesota towards the right, it would be, it would be, it would be to FOIA, but it hasn't happened in Minnesota.
54:20
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think.
54:21
[SPEAKER_05]: But are the people fed up with the last two years of all the Somalian bullshit and fraud and their money, taxpayer money going to all this stupid shit and,
54:32
[SPEAKER_05]: One is enough enough, I guess.
54:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I don't know.
54:34
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, it's a demographic issue too, because you have these enclaves of foreigners that only vote in one direction.
54:43
[SPEAKER_05]: And can't they bring like eight people and shit all wrapped up?
54:46
[SPEAKER_05]: That's the Michigan thing too.
54:48
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean to some point.
54:49
[SPEAKER_02]: So here's this is the historic trend for Minnesota.
54:54
[SPEAKER_02]: They missed Clovisharr by two point eights toward Republican and the opposite direction of what we typically see.
55:14
[SPEAKER_02]: ten walls for governor in uh... twenty twenty two uh... they missed by three and a half points so that polling average had uh... walts at put plus four point three and he won by seven and the it all last time it went and the other direction was uh... a guy named mason dixon smith which is a fucking name isn't it jesus christian some it parents were history teachers are something to
55:43
[SPEAKER_02]: his polling average was plus eight and he won by five point three so two point seven in the other direction but it's the trend over the last ten years has been primarily they underrepresented democratic votes which take that for what it's worth you know honestly part of that could be the fact that they're cheating in literally every election I mean look here here's I guess just think of it this way
56:11
[SPEAKER_02]: The Somalian enclaves are willing to steal billions from people pretending to take care of children.
56:16
[SPEAKER_02]: He don't think they'll fucking steal votes.
56:18
[SPEAKER_02]: Come on.
56:19
[SPEAKER_02]: No.
56:19
[SPEAKER_02]: No.
56:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's be reasonable about who these people are.
56:24
[SPEAKER_05]: And then we got Breaking News here.
56:25
[SPEAKER_05]: So Trump was going to cancel his rallies over the weekends.
56:28
[SPEAKER_05]: They're back.
56:30
[SPEAKER_05]: So he said he's going to go to Kansas in Iowa now.
56:36
[SPEAKER_05]: Maybe there is something to the Iowa thing that he thinks, I mean, he's specifically going to like cities.
56:45
[SPEAKER_05]: Slyna Kansas, oh, that's uh, we're uh, the National Arena League team is up there.
56:51
[SPEAKER_05]: I think they won the National Day.
56:52
[SPEAKER_05]: I think they won the championship this year.
56:54
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, I, okay, yeah, he's gonna go on Sunday to uh, to Iowa in Kansas.
57:01
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah.
57:04
[SPEAKER_05]: He must think something is up or otherwise he would take the day off.
57:08
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm on the fucker, doesn't sleep though.
57:10
[SPEAKER_05]: She's not.
57:10
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, how many rallies has he done, man?
57:12
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't know.
57:13
[SPEAKER_05]: It's crazy.
57:13
[SPEAKER_05]: And like every time I flip on the news, either Fox seen an M-Snow, all that other shits, they're forced to cut in because he's the only one that's really doing rallies all the time.
57:26
[SPEAKER_05]: Like at least for a couple minutes.
57:28
[SPEAKER_05]: Fox is showing him a lot.
57:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Shit Fox last night.
57:32
[SPEAKER_05]: Did a full town hall sit down with JD vents.
57:36
[SPEAKER_05]: It was him and Jesse Waters in the state of Texas and the entire hour essentially was why you should not vote for Taloreco and all that other shit.
57:47
[SPEAKER_05]: But Fox had an entire block there and Jesse Waters flew out to Texas specifically to do this interview with JD vents.
57:54
[SPEAKER_05]: So they've got everybody all out in force here.
57:58
[SPEAKER_05]: With state we got up next.
58:00
[SPEAKER_04]: Um, so we just did Minnesota so let's oh, I didn't answer.
58:06
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm sorry.
58:06
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, yeah, I'm All right, this is going to be a heart pick is going to be a gut pick here.
58:14
[SPEAKER_05]: Give me to FOIA and Here's why I said at some point enough is enough like Whenever I hear the the the state Minnesota now
58:30
[SPEAKER_05]: Somalians and all this other bullshit where let's take five, six years ago.
58:36
[SPEAKER_05]: I think in Minnesota, I think of the Vikings.
58:38
[SPEAKER_05]: I think of the Twin Cities.
58:39
[SPEAKER_05]: I think of the twins.
58:41
[SPEAKER_05]: I think of all the things the farming and all that other stuff like I am stunned that the Somalian thing has dominated this goddamn states and their politics and everything else.
58:53
[SPEAKER_05]: When is enough enough where people stand up in Minnesota?
58:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Because like California is too big.
58:59
[SPEAKER_05]: But when is enough enough in Minnesota to say, all right, we're all going to go out and vote and get these fucking people out of here, so our tax dollars are actually going somewhere rather than leering centers.
59:11
[SPEAKER_05]: And she's been excellent and arallies and everything else.
59:14
[SPEAKER_05]: And she's steadily game ground.
59:16
[SPEAKER_05]: So the fact that it's at five is a lot closer than I would have thought in that poll.
59:21
[SPEAKER_05]: But Dan is probably right if you're betting on this.
59:25
[SPEAKER_05]: This is just a gut pick for me.
59:27
[SPEAKER_05]: So I just want to throw that out there.
59:28
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, I'm probably going to go flanagan on this one.
59:30
[SPEAKER_04]: She's nuts.
59:31
[SPEAKER_04]: She is, but so is the people in Minnesota, you know?
59:34
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, I know.
59:35
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, look, you got to think about who's in the state.
59:37
[SPEAKER_04]: I think that I think a lot of the ice stuff also kind of polarize them against Republicans, just because that's what their biases.
59:46
[SPEAKER_04]: And I think it's going to push them out to vote.
59:48
[SPEAKER_04]: Well, whereas I think Republicans might be more depressed.
59:52
[SPEAKER_05]: I think Democrats would stay home because you actually have to drive to the vote.
59:56
[SPEAKER_05]: and nail it.
59:57
[SPEAKER_05]: No, thank you.
59:58
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you very much.
1:00:00
[SPEAKER_05]: Renee good.
1:00:02
[SPEAKER_05]: But yeah, it won't be, it look, it's not going to be as big as other states but.
1:00:07
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm going to throw it there just for the hope of it all, uh, when we get up next.
1:00:12
[SPEAKER_04]: All right.
1:00:13
[SPEAKER_04]: Um, next up, we can, we can look out.
1:00:16
[SPEAKER_04]: Obviously South Dakota, but you guys think to skip it.
1:00:21
[SPEAKER_04]: Red, uh, Nebraska surprisingly not as, uh, Polaris that I thought it was going to be on Calshy right here.
1:00:28
[SPEAKER_04]: Uh, 67, uh, 35.
1:00:29
[SPEAKER_04]: I give me red.
1:00:33
[SPEAKER_04]: Bear, um, next up we got Kansas, uh, hang on as an interesting.
1:00:40
[SPEAKER_05]: Yes, so like I just mentioned, Trump is coming back to do Kansas and I was specifically on Sunday.
1:00:46
[SPEAKER_05]: The media has thrown Kansas is in play is in play for the last fucking two months.
1:00:53
[SPEAKER_05]: What do you think?
1:00:53
[SPEAKER_05]: Marshall by four.
1:00:55
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay.
1:00:57
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it's maybe five.
1:01:00
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it's red as well.
1:01:02
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think it could be as much as six to be honest with you.
1:01:05
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm not buying into the media hype on this bullshit.
1:01:07
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm really not.
1:01:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay, you know, so I think it's smart for Trump to do it just in case.
1:01:14
[SPEAKER_05]: Hey, man, just in case.
1:01:16
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, you want to run up the numbers, right?
1:01:17
[SPEAKER_05]: I agree.
1:01:18
[SPEAKER_05]: And you want to make sure that everybody comes out.
1:01:21
[SPEAKER_05]: So yes, but give me, give me a Republican in this one.
1:01:25
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, Calshy has the Democrat at 53%.
1:01:27
[SPEAKER_04]: I know.
1:01:28
[SPEAKER_05]: Isn't that crazy?
1:01:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Probably not worth betting on.
1:01:32
[SPEAKER_05]: What is the real poll, sir?
1:01:34
[SPEAKER_04]: The real poll has Hamilton at plus 1.3 the Democrat.
1:01:38
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, that's well within the margin of error, particular for Republicans.
1:01:42
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, I'd say plus five plus five to six.
1:01:46
[SPEAKER_04]: And that one, let's see, let's see what we can, if, uh, oh, I bet you those odds would be juicy.
1:01:56
[SPEAKER_04]: I don't that'll produce it up there, right?
1:01:58
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so Marshall five plus is 16% right now.
1:02:03
[SPEAKER_04]: So yeah, that would be a good bet.
1:02:05
[SPEAKER_04]: Five to one.
1:02:07
[SPEAKER_05]: I pay off of 500.
1:02:07
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay.
1:02:08
[SPEAKER_05]: All right.
1:02:11
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, what would say you got him next, sir?
1:02:14
[SPEAKER_04]: Next up, we got Oklahoma.
1:02:16
[SPEAKER_05]: Red, red, yeah.
1:02:18
[SPEAKER_04]: The Anthony, you got red, right?
1:02:20
[SPEAKER_04]: Oklahoma, that's an easy one.
1:02:23
[SPEAKER_04]: New Mexico.
1:02:26
[SPEAKER_05]: New Americans.
1:02:27
[SPEAKER_05]: Sorry.
1:02:27
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:02:27
[SPEAKER_05]: New America.
1:02:28
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you.
1:02:29
[SPEAKER_05]: I say blue.
1:02:30
[SPEAKER_02]: I can't remember New Mexico being red.
1:02:32
[SPEAKER_02]: It's been pretty consistently blue by six or eight points for some time now.
1:02:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Now I don't know to what degree that's because of illegal immigrants or what exactly.
1:02:46
[SPEAKER_02]: And that's something that we've also not accounted for.
1:02:50
[SPEAKER_02]: and any of these, any of this polling, right?
1:02:53
[SPEAKER_02]: And maybe that's the 4% delta that we see throughout these races, but who knows?
1:02:58
[SPEAKER_02]: We'll see this election and the data from it are going to be really interesting, frankly.
1:03:03
[SPEAKER_04]: Oh, yeah.
1:03:03
[SPEAKER_04]: Do you think Trump couldn't
1:03:06
[SPEAKER_04]: Suppressed the legal immigrant vote is that not I?
1:03:09
[SPEAKER_04]: Well, you got to think he's dying for two years.
1:03:11
[SPEAKER_04]: I would expect he could do something Well, he's thinking you got three million people out of the country.
1:03:15
[SPEAKER_05]: That's a lot and so You know in states where you don't have voter ID Yeah, these these fuckers could go in and vote for sure.
1:03:24
[SPEAKER_05]: So Yeah, that's it's super interesting Dan.
1:03:27
[SPEAKER_05]: I didn't really take that in consideration You're moving three million people, but from weight
1:03:33
[SPEAKER_05]: You know, and we don't know exactly because ice has been kind of all over the fucking country.
1:03:38
[SPEAKER_05]: And then how many people self-deported?
1:03:40
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:03:41
[SPEAKER_05]: So that'll be really fascinating to look at because let's say those numbers come in.
1:03:47
[SPEAKER_05]: Let's say Republicans do very well on both sides.
1:03:50
[SPEAKER_05]: And then they look at those numbers and they're like, shit, we're missing the fucking illegals.
1:03:54
[SPEAKER_05]: Then that means Democrats are going all in for 28 to open up the fucking borders again, or they'll never win.
1:03:59
[SPEAKER_05]: So,
1:04:00
[SPEAKER_05]: That is really something to keep an eye on.
1:04:03
[SPEAKER_05]: That's a good call to end that.
1:04:04
[SPEAKER_05]: That could change a lot of their strategy over the next two years.
1:04:09
[SPEAKER_05]: And I think this data going forward as Dan mentioned will be extremely valuable.
1:04:14
[SPEAKER_04]: What do we get up next?
1:04:15
[SPEAKER_04]: Next up Colorado.
1:04:17
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, oh, that's blue, right?
1:04:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Blue check the governor there.
1:04:25
[SPEAKER_05]: I know Derek wolf has been campaigning with him.
1:04:28
[SPEAKER_02]: It depends which which race you time I come over Senate right.
1:04:31
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, I'm talking about for Senator.
1:04:33
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, their public's name is Victor Marx.
1:04:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Pick a looper is, uh, um, yeah, I think a looper's better out for a minute hasn't.
1:04:43
[SPEAKER_04]: I've heard his name, which is impressive because he's a Colorado politician, so yeah.
1:04:46
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:04:48
[SPEAKER_04]: So who's who?
1:04:49
[SPEAKER_04]: How about Governor there?
1:04:50
[SPEAKER_04]: Governor was on Cal, she is at 96% for the Democrat.
1:04:56
[SPEAKER_04]: Who is it?
1:04:57
[SPEAKER_04]: Bill Wiser.
1:04:59
[SPEAKER_04]: Who's he going against?
1:05:00
[SPEAKER_04]: Victor Marx.
1:05:01
[SPEAKER_04]: Victor Marx.
1:05:02
[SPEAKER_04]: Not a great name.
1:05:03
[SPEAKER_04]: Carl's.
1:05:04
[SPEAKER_04]: Carl's a cousin.
1:05:05
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, not a great name.
1:05:06
[SPEAKER_05]: I should change that.
1:05:07
[SPEAKER_04]: I think it's a politics.
1:05:09
[SPEAKER_04]: So yeah, I get both of those blue, unfortunately.
1:05:13
[SPEAKER_04]: Next up, Wyoming.
1:05:14
[SPEAKER_05]: Hmm.
1:05:16
[SPEAKER_05]: This is easy.
1:05:16
[SPEAKER_05]: Red.
1:05:17
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:05:18
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
1:05:18
[SPEAKER_04]: Wyoming's always red.
1:05:21
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
1:05:21
[SPEAKER_04]: Easy.
1:05:22
[SPEAKER_04]: Next up, Montana.
1:05:25
[SPEAKER_04]: Right.
1:05:26
[SPEAKER_04]: Surprisingly close.
1:05:27
[SPEAKER_04]: Well, there's been a lot of people from California meeting that.
1:05:30
[SPEAKER_04]: It's a Republican versus an independent.
1:05:33
[SPEAKER_03]: Really?
1:05:33
[SPEAKER_04]: Yes.
1:05:34
[SPEAKER_04]: I actually, I have heard of this.
1:05:35
[SPEAKER_04]: The, a lot of Democrats are mad at the Democrat for still running for not dropping out.
1:05:40
[SPEAKER_04]: No, I don't want the independent to win.
1:05:42
[SPEAKER_04]: Interesting.
1:05:43
[SPEAKER_04]: Well, that'll split the votes.
1:05:44
[SPEAKER_04]: So that'll definitely be right.
1:05:46
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
1:05:46
[SPEAKER_04]: OK. That's an interesting one though.
1:05:49
[SPEAKER_04]: It is.
1:05:51
[SPEAKER_04]: I always think it's interesting when it's an independent
1:05:55
[SPEAKER_04]: Uh, next up we have Idaho, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh
1:06:23
[SPEAKER_05]: We've got a lot of listeners up there and they're fucking awesome.
1:06:26
[SPEAKER_05]: We went up there with grades.
1:06:27
[SPEAKER_05]: But unfortunately, man, the rest of that state dude went to internet and I got off that plane.
1:06:31
[SPEAKER_05]: That was the weirdest fucking people I've ever seen in my life.
1:06:34
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, there's a whole show about it, right?
1:06:36
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, yeah, Portlandia.
1:06:37
[SPEAKER_05]: Portlandia.
1:06:38
[SPEAKER_05]: And that lived up to exactly what it was, man.
1:06:41
[SPEAKER_05]: They were serving craft beer in the fucking airport, dude.
1:06:44
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I'm not kidding.
1:06:45
[SPEAKER_05]: That was, that was one of the most strange his airports have ever been to as well.
1:06:49
[SPEAKER_05]: Lots of granola going on over there.
1:06:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:06:52
[SPEAKER_04]: uh... not that you can do it there uh... would get up next all right we're on to our final two now rottless to uh... michigan first or no let's do a lot of a lot of places do not have uh... senate senate uh... candidates uh... got you got you a cut call so uh... let's do a last guy short this is the
1:07:19
[SPEAKER_05]: In the now.
1:07:20
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, this is a Mary Poutola versus Dan Sullivan.
1:07:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Which Dan Sullivan?
1:07:25
[SPEAKER_04]: Oh, sure.
1:07:25
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
1:07:26
[SPEAKER_04]: The answer is yes.
1:07:27
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
1:07:31
[SPEAKER_04]: What about what do the odd thing right now?
1:07:34
[SPEAKER_04]: The odds have Mary Poutola at 69% nice to win to win.
1:07:44
[SPEAKER_04]: What do the polls say?
1:07:46
[SPEAKER_04]: The polls are saying.
1:07:50
[SPEAKER_04]: are saying Paltola plus 2.7.
1:07:53
[SPEAKER_04]: That's well within the margin.
1:07:55
[SPEAKER_02]: It's the polling average at the moment is 1.2.
1:07:58
[SPEAKER_02]: I would say Sullivan by 3.5 points.
1:08:05
[SPEAKER_02]: That's my guess.
1:08:05
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe more, but probably at least by 3.5.
1:08:09
[SPEAKER_05]: If the votes are split with the other Sullivan, no, that won't be.
1:08:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, you said on the show the other day, you only expected me to get what?
1:08:16
[SPEAKER_05]: A thousand votes?
1:08:17
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:08:17
[SPEAKER_05]: Did the decoy dance Sullivan?
1:08:19
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, not even that, probably.
1:08:21
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
1:08:22
[SPEAKER_02]: People, it's there's been too much, hey, made of it at this point.
1:08:26
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
1:08:26
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, I don't think that's going to end up affecting the results.
1:08:29
[SPEAKER_04]: Even if it does, if Dan, Dan, the fake Dan Sullivan, please stand up.
1:08:33
[SPEAKER_04]: Here, if he has enough votes to swing it, I think he'll be avoided.
1:08:38
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I did so.
1:08:39
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, there's something we'll go down.
1:08:41
[SPEAKER_05]: They've been legally mounting up behind the scenes.
1:08:43
[SPEAKER_05]: And this is for for their government, by the way.
1:08:45
[SPEAKER_04]: Don't you see, um, are that, is it a ranked choice voting in Alaska?
1:08:50
[SPEAKER_04]: What does that mean?
1:08:50
[SPEAKER_04]: It is.
1:08:51
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
1:08:51
[SPEAKER_04]: So what they do is they're going to rank their top and then they'll have the three options.
1:08:56
[SPEAKER_04]: So I can say one, two, three and, um, so like in there would be around.
1:09:01
[SPEAKER_04]: So if, if, uh,
1:09:03
[SPEAKER_04]: the fake dance Sullivan is a he'll be canceled out and then his votes will go to wherever his people's next choice was on the on the ballot interesting.
1:09:14
[SPEAKER_04]: So I don't think Dan Sullivan the fake dance Sullivan is going to swing it at all.
1:09:17
[SPEAKER_04]: I just don't think it's it's going to happen.
1:09:19
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I think too many people know about it.
1:09:21
[SPEAKER_05]: That story's gotten so huge too on every single network.
1:09:24
[SPEAKER_05]: Even CNN last night did a full piece on it that just said, this is a massive on forced air or forced air by the Democratic Party to do the shits like I believe they called it a gift to Trump when we did fake news yesterday.
1:09:41
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, give me the real dance Sullivan and he will stand up.
1:09:45
[SPEAKER_05]: and give a victory speech that day.
1:09:47
[SPEAKER_04]: Were you thinking six points?
1:09:48
[SPEAKER_04]: Is that where we are at, Dan?
1:09:51
[SPEAKER_04]: Um, I think three and a half.
1:09:54
[SPEAKER_04]: I said four.
1:09:55
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
1:09:55
[SPEAKER_05]: That's where I'm at.
1:09:56
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, so if you're doing four plus points, that's at 11% chance.
1:10:02
[SPEAKER_05]: Boy, let's go.
1:10:05
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:10:07
[SPEAKER_05]: That's gonna pay off at 41.
1:10:08
[SPEAKER_05]: All right.
1:10:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Good.
1:10:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Sunday dude.
1:10:13
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm gonna be just just all I mean just hammering or Monday night during the football game Just hammering all these before Tuesday Okay, okay, so now we're on to the big two.
1:10:24
[SPEAKER_04]: I think yep, we're on to let's see Michigan first.
1:10:28
[SPEAKER_05]: All right This is Said and Rogers
1:10:39
[SPEAKER_05]: What is Cowcheese saying, how much money have people put on and predicted on this from around the world?
1:10:46
[SPEAKER_05]: 16.7 mil, that's gotta be, I would say that and probably Texas is the highest.
1:10:52
[SPEAKER_05]: That's just my guess.
1:10:54
[SPEAKER_05]: What are the actual polls say?
1:10:56
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, so the actual polls, if I can pull it up right here, has LCI at a plus 4.2.
1:11:07
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, it's still within the margin of error.
1:11:08
[SPEAKER_05]: That's higher than I thought.
1:11:11
[SPEAKER_05]: I just, I'm gonna say Rogers, and the map of Africa you pulled up the other day of Islam moving all the way down that continent.
1:11:21
[SPEAKER_05]: We did the reimagining of Africa.
1:11:23
[SPEAKER_05]: That's the same thing.
1:11:24
[SPEAKER_05]: Look guys, we got New York.
1:11:27
[SPEAKER_05]: You got Michigan, this could start spreading down where dude, over the years.
1:11:31
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm not saying it's gonna be over nights, but you start in some of these little cities then you end up overtaken a city, like Dearborn Michigan, then you get a Senate seat, then you get a mayor seat.
1:11:43
[SPEAKER_05]: That's gonna get really fucking dangerous.
1:11:46
[SPEAKER_05]: And I hope the people in Michigan are smart enough not to let this mother fucker in, because he is a full-blown communist who will cut your fucking head off dude, if we weren't in America.
1:11:57
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, so please go out and vote Rogers.
1:11:59
[SPEAKER_05]: I am picking Rogers on the show.
1:12:01
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't know how my by by how much.
1:12:04
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, I think it could be a pointer, too, but what do you got, Dan?
1:12:08
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I've got Rogers by one and a half.
1:12:11
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
1:12:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe two.
1:12:14
[SPEAKER_05]: It shouldn't be that close, but it feels like it is.
1:12:18
[SPEAKER_05]: And I'll say this for Abdul Saeed, cause this is a whole thing is to get people in, get people in politics, and get people to be personalities.
1:12:28
[SPEAKER_05]: That's their biggest challenge because all these people are fucking retards like Dan said.
1:12:33
[SPEAKER_05]: And this guy is actually smart.
1:12:35
[SPEAKER_05]: He has done every interview on the planet, every podcast on the fucking planet.
1:12:40
[SPEAKER_05]: And he is,
1:12:43
[SPEAKER_05]: genuinely fucking trying, so he's even switched some of our friends where I'm like, bro, I can't believe he posted that.
1:12:52
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm talking about it all fair, but yeah, fuck.
1:12:57
[SPEAKER_05]: He gave me Rogers and Michigan do the right thing here.
1:13:00
[SPEAKER_05]: I anybody put this fucking guy.
1:13:03
[SPEAKER_05]: This would shock America, I think.
1:13:06
[SPEAKER_04]: It really would.
1:13:08
[SPEAKER_04]: Um, all right, what's the next one?
1:13:10
[SPEAKER_04]: All right, so, well, for Rogers two plus points, that's five to one, odds.
1:13:14
[SPEAKER_04]: Is it really?
1:13:14
[SPEAKER_04]: Mm-hmm.
1:13:15
[SPEAKER_02]: Two plus is, uh, that, you might, that's a sprinkle.
1:13:19
[SPEAKER_02]: That's not a hard bet.
1:13:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
1:13:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Are you thinking it's gonna be one five?
1:13:22
[SPEAKER_02]: I wouldn't be, we are, but I wouldn't be shocked, um, at all for it to be four, to be honest.
1:13:28
[SPEAKER_02]: If people have paid attention to the election cycle and that this guy's dad,
1:13:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Raised money for terrorist organizations that his families comes from the Muslim brotherhood, then sure.
1:13:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, maybe it goes to four But TPD.
1:13:43
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know.
1:13:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I did two two would not be a I wouldn't put a bunch of money on two personally, but Okay, so let me ask you this.
1:13:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Do you think it gets called on Tuesday night?
1:13:53
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh?
1:13:54
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah Michigan Sad some issues, man
1:14:02
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't know.
1:14:03
[SPEAKER_05]: I think if it goes overnight, I think Rogers has problems.
1:14:07
[SPEAKER_05]: So that is one of the biggest ones I'll be keeping in eye on all nights.
1:14:11
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, the Department of Justice will descend on Michigan if that's the case.
1:14:15
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm sure they will.
1:14:17
[SPEAKER_05]: But wasn't it a big gratch?
1:14:20
[SPEAKER_05]: Didn't she have like an extra 500,000 people that voted that is more than the population in the state?
1:14:26
[SPEAKER_05]: And that last election, I'll remember something crazy there.
1:14:29
[SPEAKER_05]: So, yeah, we'll see.
1:14:30
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, allegedly they cleaned up their voter rolls, find out.
1:14:35
[SPEAKER_05]: But that's the state that James O'Keefe went to where you can bring eight people, and you're all wrapped head to toe and shit.
1:14:41
[SPEAKER_05]: By the way, he didn't get arrested.
1:14:43
[SPEAKER_05]: He posted something earlier, just like, I don't know where that rumor started.
1:14:46
[SPEAKER_03]: Oh, also interestingly, if you work for a nursing home, you can vouch for an unlimited number of people, which I remember a lot of people getting into, oh, it's right, buses.
1:14:55
[SPEAKER_05]: Yes, yes.
1:14:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:14:56
[SPEAKER_05]: And they were driving them over in buses.
1:15:01
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, fuck um yeah, I agree.
1:15:04
[SPEAKER_04]: I think Mike Rogers probably I will say I'm I'm worried about him because I don't think he's the strongest campaigner He lost to elistice lock in in the past.
1:15:12
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, he is a CIA and they are paying for her campaign Deep state people paying for her campaign and That's a separate issue
1:15:24
[SPEAKER_04]: That's very, yeah, and else I had definitely just not to have that kind of support.
1:15:27
[SPEAKER_04]: No.
1:15:28
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, and the big one guys, both literally and figuratively, Texas.
1:15:36
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, I phoned a friend last night.
1:15:39
[SPEAKER_05]: Like it was, it wants to be a millionaire.
1:15:43
[SPEAKER_05]: I've known a couple in Texas last night.
1:15:45
[SPEAKER_05]: And I'm here in the same thing.
1:15:47
[SPEAKER_05]: Taloreco signs and every fucking yard shirts, all that other stuff, rural areas.
1:15:52
[SPEAKER_05]: Signs don't vote.
1:15:53
[SPEAKER_05]: I know.
1:15:54
[SPEAKER_05]: I know.
1:15:55
[SPEAKER_05]: And the last part of this before I left for work today, I asked my wife, and I said, hey, what do you think about this?
1:16:03
[SPEAKER_05]: And she goes, dude,
1:16:05
[SPEAKER_05]: We were fucking ostracized for what we did for a living.
1:16:09
[SPEAKER_05]: In neighborhoods, friend groups, all that other stuff, because of who you were voting for, and Republicans don't put signs in yards.
1:16:16
[SPEAKER_05]: They don't wear the t-shirts and all that other shits, and their kids have to be friends and moms, and all that other stuff at school.
1:16:24
[SPEAKER_05]: I think you can take that out of this.
1:16:26
[SPEAKER_05]: So I am gonna go pacts to them, but I think this is two points.
1:16:36
[SPEAKER_05]: What do you got?
1:16:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, uh, I've got Paxton by somewhere between two and a half and three and a half points.
1:16:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
1:16:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe more, depending on how things break, um, depending on how the get out of the boat campaign went.
1:16:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Because if it was any other candidate, but him?
1:16:55
[SPEAKER_05]: He's got a million skeletons in his closet.
1:16:57
[SPEAKER_05]: He's a terrible speaker, and He's got that weird voice.
1:17:02
[SPEAKER_05]: It looks weird all that other shits Trump made sure everybody knew that Yes, and I think you did it on purpose of like hey this is who this guy is?
1:17:10
[SPEAKER_05]: What's not all be freaked out?
1:17:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah honest, okay?
1:17:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Yep.
1:17:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, so you still got about for him now So I got a vote for him though, and I and I actually liked that But yeah, I just I said when we move there in 2020
1:17:23
[SPEAKER_05]: that Texas would be blue by 28.
1:17:25
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't think it's this guy.
1:17:28
[SPEAKER_05]: I would just, I would have such a hard time with how religious Texas is that they would vote for the guy who got his non-binary.
1:17:37
[SPEAKER_04]: See, I struggled with it.
1:17:39
[SPEAKER_04]: I have different thoughts on this.
1:17:41
[SPEAKER_04]: I actually do think that Taleryk is gonna win, which I know I know.
1:17:45
[SPEAKER_04]: But I think the religion aspect of it is gonna play in
1:17:52
[SPEAKER_04]: pastor and Paxton cheated on his wife and I think I think if it was any other combination of candidates, the Republican would win, but I think this specific one, I think Taleryka's gonna take it.
1:18:06
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
1:18:07
[SPEAKER_02]: You can't make the religious argument when he's talking about God being non-binary and shit like that.
1:18:14
[SPEAKER_02]: That's proved throughout every religious subset of voters across the country, including Hispanics.
1:18:22
[SPEAKER_02]: They don't play that shit, that fucking trendy bullshit.
1:18:24
[SPEAKER_02]: They immediately shut down and vote for the other guy.
1:18:27
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, that might be even more so than the economic stuff.
1:18:32
[SPEAKER_02]: The reason why Hispanics have broken so hard for Trump because he's certainly not been terribly kind to at least half of them, right?
1:18:41
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, I think that's going to hurt him in Texas too, though.
1:18:43
[SPEAKER_02]: I think what who's going to hurt who.
1:18:45
[SPEAKER_04]: I think the Latino vote that turned out for Trump in the election year will not turn out for him.
1:18:53
[SPEAKER_04]: Sure, it's turned out for a good general action for kids.
1:18:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Why not what would what historical data do you have to support that argument?
1:18:59
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it didn't that's not that wasn't the case after Trump would full hard on build the wall all the shit during uh in 20 uh I'm sorry in 16 and then again uh during the midterms between that he's being a still broke for Republicans uh it took greater degree and then in 24 was the same.
1:19:20
[SPEAKER_05]: I've got a different opinion on it.
1:19:21
[SPEAKER_05]: I think if Talarico wins, I don't think it'll be because of his panics.
1:19:24
[SPEAKER_05]: I think it'll be because of California's moving in.
1:19:27
[SPEAKER_05]: And, everybody, I felt like I met was from California, dude.
1:19:33
[SPEAKER_05]: every single person you were in Austin though so while we were outside like we were we were in the red area I agree I think it would I think it's that definitely plays into it as well for sure so if it is I just think that migration out of California would would be the tipping points because for whatever reason those people loved to destroy their state and then go to other states and destroy them as well so like look I'm nervous about
1:20:03
[SPEAKER_04]: This isn't, I'm not putting a lot of cash on this, but, um, yeah, Ken Paxing's at 29% right now on Calshy, James Halrico, 71% if you put a hundred bucks on Ken Paxing.
1:20:17
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, 328 bucks.
1:20:20
[SPEAKER_05]: All do that.
1:20:21
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm not going fucking ham like a grand or anything, but, uh, what are the, uh,
1:20:28
[SPEAKER_05]: What's the dollar amount that people have dropped in at this thing around the world?
1:20:31
[SPEAKER_05]: Ooh.
1:20:33
[SPEAKER_05]: 58.4 mill.
1:20:34
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, so that's the record for any states.
1:20:39
[SPEAKER_05]: That tells me that people outside of the elections are trying to influence
1:20:47
[SPEAKER_02]: this by putting money in.
1:20:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, read Hoffman spent, like, I think 20 million on Talerego.
1:20:55
[SPEAKER_02]: Everybody wants him to win because they're trying to, like, they think it proves something if he wins in Texas.
1:21:00
[SPEAKER_02]: And it's people been saying this for fucking years.
1:21:04
[SPEAKER_02]: They said it about Beto and he got beat by fucking 12 points.
1:21:09
[SPEAKER_05]: But the election against Cruz was pretty close.
1:21:12
[SPEAKER_05]: It was like four.
1:21:14
[SPEAKER_02]: The film's a midterm.
1:21:16
[SPEAKER_05]: I, this is a midterm.
1:21:17
[SPEAKER_02]: It's just, there's, do you remember that race?
1:21:21
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I, most people don't.
1:21:24
[SPEAKER_05]: I do.
1:21:26
[SPEAKER_05]: What tripped him up in that?
1:21:28
[SPEAKER_05]: Cause Ted Cruz made a shit ton of mistakes at that point.
1:21:33
[SPEAKER_05]: Wasn't that when he went to Cancun and shit?
1:21:35
[SPEAKER_05]: They were calling out Cancun to remember some stupid.
1:21:37
[SPEAKER_05]: In the case of and all that other stuff, but,
1:21:42
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I think because the numbers are so drastically different, money-wise from all these other states.
1:21:49
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, the top two are Michigan and Texas.
1:21:52
[SPEAKER_05]: I think money is coming in from outside sources, probably outside the United States, because these prediction markets are jammed in everybody's faces all day.
1:22:04
[SPEAKER_05]: And now, I don't know that people necessarily trust the polls.
1:22:07
[SPEAKER_05]: They're trying to juice these to scare the shit out of you.
1:22:12
[SPEAKER_05]: What are the actual polls, say again?
1:22:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, so the actual polls have Telrico at plus three.
1:22:18
[SPEAKER_05]: OK.
1:22:18
[SPEAKER_05]: So that's obviously well within the margin there.
1:22:22
[SPEAKER_05]: man, that's going to be a close one.
1:22:24
[SPEAKER_05]: I'll say this out of all the states that I've voted in in my life.
1:22:28
[SPEAKER_05]: See, I've voted in Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and California.
1:22:35
[SPEAKER_05]: Texas has easily the most secure election process I've ever seen in my entire life.
1:22:41
[SPEAKER_05]: you've got to go through three different steps and then a machine and all the other shits.
1:22:46
[SPEAKER_05]: Is it digital or is it a scan tron or a scan tron?
1:22:49
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, but I mean, you've got to get a number and then your numbers got to sync up with the number on your ballots.
1:22:54
[SPEAKER_05]: And then you go in and they stand there and I went to two different locations.
1:22:59
[SPEAKER_05]: over my time, because I moved from driftwood over to tripping springs, and it was still the same, and they wouldn't even let you look at the people.
1:23:11
[SPEAKER_05]: They wouldn't let you wear canodate shits in line, and there was a fight at the place that I was at, and we talked about it on air.
1:23:22
[SPEAKER_05]: And that remember that guy to come off his fucking t-shirt and shit, I was like, I'll vote without my shirt on.
1:23:28
[SPEAKER_05]: And there was kind of a scuffle there, so what would this signal to the nation if you went for Talorico?
1:23:38
[SPEAKER_02]: That California's taken over Texas, but the last two Senate elections were 2020 when Biden allegedly beat Trump.
1:23:50
[SPEAKER_02]: And there is, I mean, we've caught a ton of fake shit going on a Houston during that time period.
1:23:55
[SPEAKER_02]: I'm sure there's a lot going on elsewhere.
1:24:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Cornin beat Hagar by 9.6 points and then the most recent last election cycle with Ted Cruz.
1:24:10
[SPEAKER_02]: He'd be calling all red by 8.5.
1:24:14
[SPEAKER_02]: Those are the last two statewide races.
1:24:17
[SPEAKER_02]: and Texas.
1:24:20
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay.
1:24:21
[SPEAKER_05]: So keep that in mind.
1:24:23
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm going Rogers for now.
1:24:26
[SPEAKER_05]: But I think if there was a stronger candidate going up against Rogers.
1:24:28
[SPEAKER_05]: You don't have Rogers as a mission.
1:24:29
[SPEAKER_05]: You don't have a, I'm sorry, I'm a, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh,
1:24:38
[SPEAKER_05]: That might push you over the top, but this one was the top as one for me to decide for sure, for sure.
1:24:44
[SPEAKER_05]: And if it does flip blue, that means California's completely taken over.
1:24:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, the last part of this is last night's on three media outlets I was watching.
1:24:57
[SPEAKER_05]: They said that Elon Musk over the course of the last three weeks has pumped in 190 million for Ken Paxson and ads and all that shit we're not there, so I don't know, but I have seen them in like football games and shit like that where I'm like, whoa, we don't even live there anymore and I'm getting served a
1:25:16
[SPEAKER_05]: insights, haloriko ads.
1:25:18
[SPEAKER_05]: So, yeah.
1:25:20
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, Elon's got a lot invested in that state.
1:25:23
[SPEAKER_05]: A lot.
1:25:24
[SPEAKER_05]: So, I understand why he's doing it.
1:25:27
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, shit.
1:25:27
[SPEAKER_05]: What do you say?
1:25:28
[SPEAKER_05]: Does that say 277?
1:25:30
[SPEAKER_05]: Is that real?
1:25:32
[SPEAKER_05]: 276 million.
1:25:33
[SPEAKER_05]: According to the New York Times.
1:25:35
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay.
1:25:36
[SPEAKER_05]: All right.
1:25:38
[SPEAKER_05]: So, what's that put our final number out there?
1:25:40
[SPEAKER_05]: What
1:25:45
[SPEAKER_04]: All right, I can I can tell you what we did.
1:25:47
[SPEAKER_04]: I was tracking.
1:25:48
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
1:25:49
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, great.
1:25:50
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, 53, 47 is what I have.
1:25:51
[SPEAKER_04]: That's correct.
1:25:52
[SPEAKER_04]: Uh, it's tricky to browse official production for Senate 53 to 47 Republicans.
1:25:58
[SPEAKER_04]: Do we disagree on anything?
1:26:01
[SPEAKER_04]: I don't remember.
1:26:02
[SPEAKER_04]: I don't think so.
1:26:04
[SPEAKER_04]: I don't think there was one that you disagree on.
1:26:06
[SPEAKER_04]: Um, camera watch wasn't sight.
1:26:10
[SPEAKER_05]: It wasn't, uh, Rogers.
1:26:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, no, you've got, you've got Amy Jackson, all right.
1:26:15
[SPEAKER_05]: Oh, but yeah, yeah, all right.
1:26:18
[SPEAKER_05]: 53 to, so 47, I would say your wild cards.
1:26:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Obviously you're going to be Saeed or, uh, uh, uh, or Taloreco there.
1:26:28
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, and that would still put you at 5248 and you would control the Senate.
1:26:35
[SPEAKER_05]: Why is this so important?
1:26:36
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, if the Supreme Court,
1:26:40
[SPEAKER_05]: What we're hearing, the two people are going to retire.
1:26:42
[SPEAKER_05]: You're going to need the Senate to vote them in.
1:26:44
[SPEAKER_05]: And it will have nothing to do with the House.
1:26:47
[SPEAKER_05]: Now we can move on to the House and Dan, I know you've been doing a ton of research on this.
1:26:53
[SPEAKER_05]: What do you got there and where do you want to start?
1:26:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, well, I can tell you that, like, my, I think it's a, there's a very slim chance that Republicans actually win the house, very like a, a, a razor, thin, um, my guess is it'll be something like Democrat.
1:27:15
[SPEAKER_02]: to 17 to 223 and Republican to 12 to 218 in that range, somewhere in that range.
1:27:26
[SPEAKER_02]: And that 218 for Republicans are where it's tied, right?
1:27:35
[SPEAKER_02]: But the thing that you got to remember is in the very competitive house races right now,
1:27:43
[SPEAKER_02]: there's let's say there's 10 of them.
1:27:45
[SPEAKER_02]: There's 10 like super competitive house races that were that I've been keeping an eye on.
1:27:49
[SPEAKER_02]: Six of those 10 people are what I would consider to be centrist or right even right-laning Democrats in some cases, but mostly like
1:27:58
[SPEAKER_02]: Mendoza, Joanna Mendoza, and Arizona, who's part of the new dim coalition, who's like trying to get away from all this progressive bullshit, business friendly, all that, like talking about a redustrializing America.
1:28:16
[SPEAKER_02]: same thing with Jonathan Nez and Arizona District 2, same thing with Don Davis in North Carolina 1, who's a blue dog style Democrat, and is pro-immigration enforcement, national security, et cetera, et cetera, gave Vasquez and New Mexico, actually.
1:28:35
[SPEAKER_02]: is a pragmatic border-state Democrat pro-emigration reform about some stuff, but a lot more moderate on.
1:28:44
[SPEAKER_02]: He's not one of the Green New Deal people or in that bullshit.
1:28:49
[SPEAKER_02]: Page Cognetti and Pennsylvania who probably win is another one with the new Dems who doesn't play all this
1:28:58
[SPEAKER_02]: uh... fucking pro palestine uh... flood the border bullshit and then genel stelsin from also from Pennsylvania's another one uh... you could also uh... at Cape Conley in New York 17 um... she's uh... national security hawk um... who's uh... highlighted by a lot of center left groups is a kind of a moderate so you're talking about maybe maybe seven
1:29:27
[SPEAKER_02]: of the people that are in these tightly-contested races.
1:29:32
[SPEAKER_02]: And I say, the reason I, that are not lean Republican or lean conservative or anything, but aren't going to just accept whatever the Democrats are trying to do in the house.
1:29:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Like in peach events and shit like that, it's just not going to happen.
1:29:44
[SPEAKER_02]: So, um...
1:29:46
[SPEAKER_02]: that if you consider it from that perspective, you're kind of wiping out the potential for some of the fuckery that they're going to try to get into, especially when they're not going to have, I don't think there's any chance they take the Senate Democrats.
1:30:04
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think there's a decent chance that
1:30:11
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a decent chance that Democrats get upwards of 222, maybe 223 at the highest end, that's my opinion.
1:30:21
[SPEAKER_02]: But that majority kind of gets wiped out and any of the really controversial stuff by what I just said.
1:30:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
1:30:29
[SPEAKER_02]: That's a good place to start.
1:30:30
[SPEAKER_02]: But we can go through the individual races too and figure it out.
1:30:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
1:30:35
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I mean, we don't need to go through every fucking race because there's not that many that are there's there's there's 400 fucking 38 of them and that's we're not doing that.
1:30:43
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, we're not doing that.
1:30:45
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, one other one that I wanted to ask you about any shot in California that helped him when's Um, I think I'm gonna be pull that up.
1:30:53
[SPEAKER_02]: I can tell you what the numbers are saying right now, but again, California has got some legal issues at the moment.
1:31:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, Um, hold on.
1:31:04
[SPEAKER_02]: This one definitely won't come back for weeks.
1:31:06
[SPEAKER_02]: I can play that.
1:31:07
[SPEAKER_02]: You're not going to know for three weeks.
1:31:09
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, TBD I guess, but let's see.
1:31:14
[SPEAKER_04]: Poling has Havier Bessera at plus 21.
1:31:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
1:31:20
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think it's going to be that big.
1:31:21
[SPEAKER_02]: I think it's more in the 15 range.
1:31:27
[SPEAKER_02]: But we'll see, that won't be an interesting one to see.
1:31:30
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't think there's any chances that
1:31:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, any, I don't, I think there's it literally is the Euro% chance you can win.
1:31:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, take that for what it's worth.
1:31:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, what about, uh, L.A. Mayor?
1:31:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, favorite.
1:31:47
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the communist is going to win, actually.
1:31:49
[SPEAKER_02]: I did, too.
1:31:50
[SPEAKER_02]: I think oddly enough, it's people are so mad at that dumb bitch for letting the city burn to the ground.
1:32:02
[SPEAKER_02]: and the way she handled it afterwards.
1:32:05
[SPEAKER_02]: I, yeah, I don't, I really don't, I really think that comedy's gonna win.
1:32:11
[SPEAKER_05]: I did too.
1:32:12
[SPEAKER_05]: And then that's gonna put a comedy is the mayor of LA and New York, our two largest cities and Seattle and Boston.
1:32:20
[SPEAKER_05]: Yep.
1:32:22
[SPEAKER_05]: Chicago, I mean, it's fucking crazy, dude.
1:32:25
[SPEAKER_05]: It's absolutely crazy.
1:32:26
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, I give me the comedy in that one, for sure, what are her odds?
1:32:31
[SPEAKER_04]: Uh, surprisingly, I agree.
1:32:33
[SPEAKER_04]: I think the comm is going to win, but, um, nithia ramen is at 41% right now.
1:32:38
[SPEAKER_04]: Carried, Karen Bass is at 59.
1:32:40
[SPEAKER_04]: That will be one of the full moon.
1:32:42
[SPEAKER_04]: It just flipped a few days ago.
1:32:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
1:32:44
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, yeah, I take that, but, uh, and then look at do me a favor.
1:32:48
[SPEAKER_05]: Cause Jack Black is training right now.
1:32:49
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm just going to need this photo.
1:32:51
[SPEAKER_05]: You can pop it up on screen here.
1:32:53
[SPEAKER_03]: Um, fucking more on.
1:32:56
[SPEAKER_05]: So this is the chick that's running against wheelchair for governor and Texas.
1:33:01
[SPEAKER_05]: Is that race even in play?
1:33:02
[SPEAKER_05]: And why even wear this fucking t-shirt jacket?
1:33:04
[SPEAKER_02]: No, he, I mean, he's gonna win by 10 points, 12 points or something like that.
1:33:08
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, Jack Black probably got five million from USAID to do this, right?
1:33:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, I guess, I don't know.
1:33:15
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, that's why blow up your fucking career for this.
1:33:19
[SPEAKER_05]: Like I didn't know he was political.
1:33:23
[SPEAKER_05]: I mean, I knew his partner was, obviously, as he got fired after going on stage.
1:33:27
[SPEAKER_05]: So I'm saying, you know, I wish they didn't mess when Trump got shot, then I'd have to, and yeah, all right, yeah, I think this woman has no fucking shot.
1:33:37
[SPEAKER_05]: He's going to roll to victory, nailed it, nailed it.
1:33:41
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you.
1:33:42
[SPEAKER_05]: Thank you for that.
1:33:44
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, yeah, you want to get to some of the big Congress ones here?
1:33:48
[SPEAKER_04]: uh... i was gonna look at uh... i was gonna look at uh... texis governor if you want to take a look at uh... yes yes uh... yes uh... yes uh... he's wearing the shirt yet gina in josa has thirty eight percent chance grab at sixty two percent uh... let's look at actual polls though he's outside the margin i think he's at three point two national arena up per down up up okay yeah on uh... on vote hub dot com he's at plus two point two i think he wins by fucking ten eight to ten points
1:34:21
[SPEAKER_05]: simply because I don't think he's a great governor by the way, but his stance on immigration has been excellence and I think that's that's what people care about.
1:34:30
[SPEAKER_05]: They should care about property taxes, but they don't for some reason.
1:34:36
[SPEAKER_05]: So yeah, I think yeah, but I don't want that one for sure, for sure.
1:34:41
[SPEAKER_05]: Congress wise, or I'm sorry, yeah, Congress wise, I think our buddy gets in, I think
1:34:50
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, that'd be the first YouTuber ever in Congress, is that what he is?
1:34:55
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:34:56
[SPEAKER_02]: I mean, I think Brandon wins by nine points.
1:35:00
[SPEAKER_02]: That's my guess.
1:35:01
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's polling it at a plus five right now, but I think it's more like nine.
1:35:06
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he wins by more than that.
1:35:07
[SPEAKER_02]: I really do see, I mean, she's a fucking retard.
1:35:10
[SPEAKER_02]: Retard.
1:35:11
[SPEAKER_02]: And people don't like fat disgusting pieces of shit either.
1:35:14
[SPEAKER_02]: She was terrible on the debates.
1:35:16
[SPEAKER_05]: She didn't look great out there.
1:35:17
[SPEAKER_05]: I watched it.
1:35:18
[SPEAKER_05]: He was awesome.
1:35:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, she doesn't know anything.
1:35:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Brandon's taking the time.
1:35:21
[SPEAKER_02]: What do we think of him?
1:35:23
[SPEAKER_02]: He knows a lot about like he came into all this several years ago and know a lot about gun policy and things like that, but he's really taking the time to educate himself and everything else.
1:35:32
[SPEAKER_02]: that involves being, you know, members of Congress are overwhelmingly lawyers, right?
1:35:40
[SPEAKER_02]: Same with the Senate.
1:35:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Like, I'm sorry, in addition to the House, the Senate is also overwhelmingly attorney.
1:35:47
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, understanding the law isn't something that Brandon probably spent a lot of time doing in his early 20s.
1:35:55
[SPEAKER_02]: unless, like, as none of us did unless we were in law school, but he's taking a lot of time to do it and you can see it when he does public speaking, especially on the spot debates, he knows what the fuck he's talking about and she made a fool of herself and her entire campaign since then has just been to try to convince people that his jokes on podcast were his real opinions.
1:36:16
[SPEAKER_02]: That's literally her entire campaign strategy.
1:36:18
[SPEAKER_02]: She is a fucking Mongo Lloyd.
1:36:21
[SPEAKER_02]: And a fat one, too.
1:36:22
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think Brandon stays in there for a long time.
1:36:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he'll be in there and the perpetuity.
1:36:26
[SPEAKER_02]: They're not going to be able to be in him after this.
1:36:28
[SPEAKER_05]: He's young too.
1:36:29
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, he's 29.
1:36:30
[SPEAKER_05]: Think.
1:36:31
[SPEAKER_05]: But you have known him longer than I have.
1:36:32
[SPEAKER_05]: The reason I said YouTuber is I knew him as the AK guy on YouTube.
1:36:37
[SPEAKER_05]: Before I met him.
1:36:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, he's 30.
1:36:38
[SPEAKER_02]: Excuse me.
1:36:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Woo.
1:36:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Get an old dude.
1:36:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Time to retire.
1:36:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I've known him for a long time.
1:36:44
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a good dude.
1:36:45
[SPEAKER_02]: Great dude.
1:36:46
[SPEAKER_05]: But I met him through you guys.
1:36:47
[SPEAKER_05]: So like, I only knew him as the AK guy on YouTube.
1:36:52
[SPEAKER_05]: years later, but yeah, I become friends of them in the last five to six years, and I'll say this.
1:37:00
[SPEAKER_05]: We're at the inauguration.
1:37:02
[SPEAKER_05]: I saw him making the rounds up in DC, so, you know, he's been going after this for a couple years.
1:37:10
[SPEAKER_05]: This wasn't like an overnight thing, obviously, for him.
1:37:13
[SPEAKER_05]: And he was talking to all the right people that I saw up there in DC.
1:37:17
[SPEAKER_05]: at some of these parties in shit during that and played the game because you got to do it politics is politics it's like when in a fucking Oscar you got to go to all the parties first and meet all the fucking voters and all those those people and do all the the kissin babies and all that other shit and he's done it so yeah congratulations dude I think he's gonna win and I'm I'm excited for him now
1:37:39
[SPEAKER_05]: That's big.
1:37:40
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm surprised he's only at 56% on Calshy to be honest.
1:37:43
[SPEAKER_04]: I mean, I'm not much money's into it.
1:37:46
[SPEAKER_04]: 780,000.
1:37:47
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I don't think people, this is one of the things.
1:37:50
[SPEAKER_02]: This is actually a good, it's a good point.
1:37:54
[SPEAKER_02]: The races that are genuinely out of reach clearly aren't being fucked with by people.
1:38:01
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep.
1:38:01
[SPEAKER_02]: So it's not moving that line very much.
1:38:03
[SPEAKER_02]: That's what's happening.
1:38:04
[SPEAKER_02]: That's my opinion.
1:38:05
[SPEAKER_05]: That's what I think too.
1:38:06
[SPEAKER_05]: Because there's just no way.
1:38:08
[SPEAKER_05]: You have $58 million on Taloreca on calcium and Texas like with that being somebody from overseas or some other pack or some bullshit.
1:38:19
[SPEAKER_05]: Who are some of the other big ones?
1:38:20
[SPEAKER_05]: You wanted to keep an eye on here.
1:38:24
[SPEAKER_05]: Congress wise.
1:38:25
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, let's see, I think, um, let me go back to the beginning here.
1:38:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Actually, because, here we go.
1:38:34
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, I say what while you're looking at it, if you're at home and you live in these areas and you know more than we do, that you have the best advantage because, you know, we know the people in our district, obviously, and so do you.
1:38:49
[SPEAKER_05]: So this is something else that's great on this night as well because you'll know exactly what's going on in your own town.
1:38:54
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a couple that that hop off the page that are really interesting to me, so I mentioned Joanna Mendoza.
1:39:00
[SPEAKER_02]: One Cisco money who's running against her in Arizona 6 has a pretty decent chance to win that.
1:39:07
[SPEAKER_02]: It's there are D plus 4, but is the polling average right now?
1:39:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, and the same thing in the Arizona one, uh, Amishaw versus Jayce, Jayce Feeley is deep plus five right now, but those are both, uh, winnable races, uh, it depends on how the votes break to be honest and turn out and stuff like that.
1:39:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Jayce Feeley, the NFL kicker.
1:39:29
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if he's an NFL kicker.
1:39:30
[SPEAKER_02]: He was, I believe the kicker for the Falcons.
1:39:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Um,
1:39:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Yes, that's him.
1:39:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Holy shit, all right.
1:39:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, he's he's got a he's got a decent chance We'll see.
1:39:43
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if if they pumped any money in last minute for him to get good good TV and stuff like that.
1:39:51
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know the answer to that, but he's got a decent shot
1:39:57
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's see.
1:39:58
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't trust any race though in Arizona.
1:40:00
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't trust the voting in Arizona.
1:40:02
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I mean, it's it's a little dodgy.
1:40:04
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, Colorado 8.
1:40:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, Uh, root now versus Evans.
1:40:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Evans has this very slim shot, but I don't think so.
1:40:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I think he's, I think I think the Democrat will win there.
1:40:19
[SPEAKER_02]: Um,
1:40:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Florida 14 Kathy Caster versus Mike Beltran.
1:40:25
[SPEAKER_02]: I think Beltran's going to win that.
1:40:26
[SPEAKER_02]: This is my personal opinion.
1:40:27
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he's going to win by half a point or so.
1:40:29
[SPEAKER_05]: It's either a pub or the Democrat.
1:40:31
[SPEAKER_02]: The Republican, but it's leaning Democrat right now.
1:40:34
[SPEAKER_02]: But I think he wins.
1:40:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Florida 22 is Dan Diav vs. Ascar.
1:40:41
[SPEAKER_02]: I think the Republican wins that one pretty handily.
1:40:45
[SPEAKER_02]: And I think for 25 between mosquitos and singer is also a play for Republicans.
1:40:51
[SPEAKER_02]: But right now, leaning slightly left.
1:40:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Then these Iowa races, they're really funny.
1:40:58
[SPEAKER_02]: So there's three different Iowa house races that are
1:41:02
[SPEAKER_02]: D3, D1, and D2, and to be honest, I think the Republicans are winning all three of those.
1:41:08
[SPEAKER_02]: It's Iowa districts 1, 2, and 3, and I think the Republicans win all those, frankly.
1:41:17
[SPEAKER_02]: But, you know, TBD, this is just based on the historical averages of polling delta's.
1:41:24
[SPEAKER_02]: And then main, done lap versus lapage, I think lapage wins that by two points.
1:41:32
[SPEAKER_02]: That's what I've got here.
1:41:33
[SPEAKER_02]: That's main district two.
1:41:35
[SPEAKER_02]: It's another one that looks dim, but it's going to repube.
1:41:39
[SPEAKER_02]: Let's see.
1:41:43
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, they've got the Montana District one between four-stack and Flint a lot closer than that really is I think that's a solid repute seat.
1:41:52
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, North Carolina District one Davis versus Lori Buckout.
1:41:57
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I've actually got that one even.
1:42:00
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know how that one's gonna break.
1:42:01
[SPEAKER_02]: The national polling averages within the margin of era two, but it's I've got it somewhere between even and plus one for the Republican.
1:42:13
[SPEAKER_05]: You would get a lot of money off of that.
1:42:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
1:42:16
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:42:18
[SPEAKER_02]: It's the same thing with North Carolina 11.
1:42:20
[SPEAKER_02]: Ager versus Balcom.
1:42:22
[SPEAKER_02]: I've got that one at even to plus one for the Republican.
1:42:27
[SPEAKER_02]: an outside chance for Max Miller to beat Brian Poindexter in Ohio 7.
1:42:34
[SPEAKER_02]: If he does it'll be by one point, one to one and a half.
1:42:37
[SPEAKER_02]: So if you would take that bet, that wouldn't be a bad one.
1:42:43
[SPEAKER_02]: And then Ohio 9, a captive versus Marin.
1:42:46
[SPEAKER_02]: It's polling even right now.
1:42:48
[SPEAKER_02]: The Republican will win that seat.
1:42:51
[SPEAKER_02]: I think.
1:42:53
[SPEAKER_02]: And then those pencil vanions are weird.
1:42:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So pencil vanions don't have as much of a delta, but the pencil vanion Democrats are not typically crazy people.
1:43:03
[SPEAKER_02]: Interestingly enough, because it's a purple state, you can't get away with being a fucking full-on progressive in a state like that for the most part.
1:43:13
[SPEAKER_02]: So that's something to keep an eye on.
1:43:15
[SPEAKER_02]: There's two more races.
1:43:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Texas 35 is polling even right now.
1:43:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Usually that means that the Republican wins in Texas.
1:43:26
[SPEAKER_02]: And then on the other side, Virginia,
1:43:29
[SPEAKER_02]: Chan Taylor versus Rob Whitman in Virginia, uh, district one is polling even, but that usually goes the democratic side, because it's Virginia and they're all fucking communist there.
1:43:41
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, you know, not you people obviously that we love, but, uh,
1:43:47
[SPEAKER_02]: the politics there are getting pretty weird.
1:43:49
[SPEAKER_02]: Then Washington state is another one that I can't call.
1:43:52
[SPEAKER_02]: It's Perez versus Braun.
1:43:55
[SPEAKER_02]: And the polling average right now is Democratic plus three.
1:43:58
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a possibility.
1:43:59
[SPEAKER_02]: That's within the margin.
1:44:01
[SPEAKER_02]: There's a possibility there, but we've seen a lot of fuckery in Washington as well with Republicans not able to win.
1:44:07
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't know what show me where Washington District 3 is on
1:44:18
[SPEAKER_02]: Well, you mean what city?
1:44:21
[SPEAKER_02]: I'd geographically, yes.
1:44:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah.
1:44:24
[SPEAKER_02]: It is right here.
1:44:28
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
1:44:29
[SPEAKER_02]: Uh, that's, what does that like to come on, shit?
1:44:32
[SPEAKER_04]: I knew nothing about Washington either.
1:44:34
[SPEAKER_05]: I've never been in Washington, actually.
1:44:36
[SPEAKER_05]: It sounds beautiful.
1:44:39
[SPEAKER_03]: It is.
1:44:39
[SPEAKER_03]: I've spent a decent amount of time there, but I haven't been there since I was a teenager.
1:44:42
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah.
1:44:43
[SPEAKER_02]: It is.
1:44:47
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't care about the county's motherfuckers cities, Vancouver.
1:44:52
[SPEAKER_02]: Oh, so it's north.
1:44:56
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, that one maybe.
1:44:57
[SPEAKER_02]: It's in between Seattle, I think, and what do you call it?
1:45:06
[SPEAKER_02]: are out in a south I mean it's in between Seattle and Portland so make make whatever you want out of that to be honest that part so there's there's a red streak that goes through Washington even on the western side a little bit you can see it right there like the west coast is a pretty solid blue but uh this district stretches all the way inward towards uh yakema
1:45:32
[SPEAKER_02]: So I don't know how that one's going to go.
1:45:34
[SPEAKER_02]: That's an interesting one because again, Washington is it's been a weird place over time for Republican candidates in general.
1:45:44
[SPEAKER_02]: Then finally, Wisconsin, there's two even races.
1:45:50
[SPEAKER_02]: One of them is Rebecca Cook versus Derek Van Orden.
1:45:53
[SPEAKER_02]: He's a popular Navy SEAL who's been in this will be his second time running.
1:46:01
[SPEAKER_02]: I think he'll win that by three points.
1:46:05
[SPEAKER_02]: And then I don't know the other one.
1:46:07
[SPEAKER_02]: Burman versus Style in Wisconsin won.
1:46:10
[SPEAKER_02]: I don't have a read on that one.
1:46:13
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, the end.
1:46:15
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, ours is David Rouser here.
1:46:17
[SPEAKER_05]: He's been in office since shit we laughed.
1:46:20
[SPEAKER_05]: So, uh, I think you'll win here in our district.
1:46:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, I think that one's pretty easy.
1:46:25
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, and Kim Hardy looks like a piece of shit.
1:46:31
[SPEAKER_05]: I got off a looks.
1:46:32
[SPEAKER_05]: I try not to want, you know, root for August and things like that.
1:46:35
[SPEAKER_03]: Like, Parkinson's the only one I'm earning for that's on the ugly side, I think.
1:46:38
[SPEAKER_02]: But, uh, what's your final number at then?
1:46:42
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, yeah, I mean, I don't have a specific number, uh, but like I said, I think the Democrats will have somewhere between, um, 217 and, um, um,
1:47:02
[SPEAKER_02]: 2017 and 223 at the high and maybe four maybe 224 if something's some things break wrong and the republicans will be somewhere between um two 12 and 218 so I don't know that um in that case
1:47:21
[SPEAKER_02]: That would be interesting.
1:47:22
[SPEAKER_02]: That would be a really interesting one, but either way there's too many there's there's non progressive Democrats that are It's not the end of the world if the Republicans don't have a majority in the house.
1:47:32
[SPEAKER_02]: They could still do the things they need to do.
1:47:34
[SPEAKER_02]: Yep, but they must win the Senate.
1:47:36
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, I don't think that's going to be an issue.
1:47:38
[SPEAKER_05]: No.
1:47:40
[SPEAKER_05]: For me Just because it always flips
1:47:47
[SPEAKER_05]: I would put this because right now currently it's two nineteen to two fourteen.
1:47:52
[SPEAKER_05]: It's already close as it is here.
1:47:54
[SPEAKER_05]: I think Democrats pick up nineteen seats.
1:47:59
[SPEAKER_05]: Skimmy two twenty to one ninety six for Democrats in this one.
1:48:04
[SPEAKER_05]: That's what I'm going to go with.
1:48:06
[SPEAKER_05]: Now can you actually put that down as a prediction the exact numbers?
1:48:12
[SPEAKER_05]: But you can't number of seats.
1:48:13
[SPEAKER_04]: You couldn't put that down because that's not
1:48:17
[SPEAKER_04]: So, yeah, well, you can, yeah, you can,
1:48:21
[SPEAKER_05]: who will control the house is a you can do that yeah but you can't you can't but I mean your your numbers don't add up to four or thirty five so that's not a little bit yeah yeah oh my off on this one yeah there's nineteen additional seats oh excuse me excuse me I so I what what I meant to say is I think Democrats will pick up nineteen seats so what is that total then uh... because Republicans are losing that so you're essentially losing like thirty eight in this one
1:48:53
[SPEAKER_05]: Hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm, hmm
1:49:20
[SPEAKER_04]: on AIDS by percent.
1:49:21
[SPEAKER_04]: So, uh, Oh, it is.
1:49:23
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
1:49:24
[SPEAKER_04]: So, which is kind of annoying.
1:49:25
[SPEAKER_04]: I wish.
1:49:26
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm sorry.
1:49:26
[SPEAKER_04]: Number of seeds.
1:49:27
[SPEAKER_04]: But, uh, how many seeds is it?
1:49:29
[SPEAKER_04]: What's the favorite right now?
1:49:32
[SPEAKER_04]: Uh, right now, it's a Democratic Party, 92.6% to win.
1:49:37
[SPEAKER_04]: And, um, it has Democrats, 8% to 10% at 26% which is the highest.
1:49:45
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay.
1:49:45
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, what about in the low end that I said?
1:49:49
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, what'd you say four to six percent, probably?
1:49:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah.
1:49:51
[SPEAKER_05]: Five percent.
1:49:52
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah.
1:49:53
[SPEAKER_04]: Go with five.
1:49:53
[SPEAKER_04]: Oh, man.
1:49:57
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, $100 in.
1:49:58
[SPEAKER_04]: You make $1800.
1:50:00
[SPEAKER_04]: Stop.
1:50:03
[SPEAKER_05]: Stop it.
1:50:03
[SPEAKER_05]: Because I look, and I know Mike Johnson is supposed to say this and this is the top of the show, but he was on last night saying, hey, we're going to win the house.
1:50:10
[SPEAKER_05]: Now, obviously he's not going to say we're going to lose the fucking house.
1:50:14
[SPEAKER_05]: But do you think this is closer?
1:50:18
[SPEAKER_02]: closer than what um then the blood bath that's uh... all the media is predicting uh... it's hard to tell there's so many races in the senate is a lot easier uh... but in the house i mean there's there are dynamics out there that we just cannot account for local popularity
1:50:36
[SPEAKER_02]: and a fucking small town where somebody's voting, I'm fucking those.
1:50:39
[SPEAKER_02]: You know, yeah, I don't think you're going to count for it.
1:50:41
[SPEAKER_02]: I think some of the, you look at this chart, put that chart up full screen actually.
1:50:48
[SPEAKER_02]: You look at that chart, nope zoom in, go to the top.
1:50:54
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, there we go.
1:50:55
[SPEAKER_02]: So you see that 13 number right there, you're gonna give me a seizure, dude.
1:51:00
[SPEAKER_02]: Okay.
1:51:00
[SPEAKER_02]: We still, that 13 number that is, that lean is leaning blue, right?
1:51:07
[SPEAKER_02]: That's based on polling numbers that they're using right now that usually are not always depending on what state.
1:51:14
[SPEAKER_02]: If any of those are in a red state, right?
1:51:16
[SPEAKER_02]: Like those ones in the center, they're scroll down a little bit.
1:51:20
[SPEAKER_02]: those ones in the center that are in those fucking states that voted red and the last presidential election and the one down at Texas that also voted red that leans blue.
1:51:30
[SPEAKER_02]: Typically speaking historically and the one in Washington is well maybe, right, but I don't think so.
1:51:37
[SPEAKER_02]: Typically speaking, those trend about 4.1 points back towards Republican against the polling, right?
1:51:44
[SPEAKER_02]: So that 13 number you don't necessarily know that's true.
1:51:49
[SPEAKER_02]: I know this, these are all predictions, these are all guesses to some degree, but you got to take that into account.
1:51:55
[SPEAKER_02]: It's possible that Democrats went up to 223 and not out of the realm of possibility, and that case it would be.
1:52:11
[SPEAKER_02]: they would have, it would be 223 to 222, right?
1:52:15
[SPEAKER_02]: And then they would be outside of that window for to try to do something progressive, I guess, but they don't have the upper chambers so they can't really do shit.
1:52:28
[SPEAKER_02]: They might try to do impeachments and stuff like that to waste time, but there's zero percent chance the Senate even takes it up.
1:52:37
[SPEAKER_02]: So I think that would be bad politically for them.
1:52:39
[SPEAKER_02]: It would just be a replay of 2018 and 2022 and so on and so forth.
1:52:46
[SPEAKER_02]: And I just don't think that's smart politically.
1:52:49
[SPEAKER_02]: Maybe they do it, who knows, but that would be kind of be stupid in my opinion for them to do something like that.
1:52:59
[SPEAKER_02]: Yeah, let's do a stupid shit.
1:53:02
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, the only one I'm keeping on on is Marie, a glues and comp, uh, Perez in Washington, District 3, only because we're named and it freaks me the fuck out.
1:53:12
[SPEAKER_05]: And, um, I wish I wish I didn't have to read that, uh, at the bottom of my screen.
1:53:17
[SPEAKER_05]: Uh, last question before we get out of here, Dan, um, any shot, what's so ever?
1:53:23
[SPEAKER_05]: The Republicans maintain the house and the Senate.
1:53:27
[SPEAKER_02]: Um, I don't think so.
1:53:30
[SPEAKER_02]: if they did it would be 2018 to 17 and you can't even count on all the Republicans to I mean right now there's it's 2018 to six or two 15 I think because there's two vacancies and you can't count on Republican in the house to do shit.
1:53:47
[SPEAKER_02]: So what difference does it make?
1:53:50
[SPEAKER_02]: The good news is you can't count on Democrats to do shitty there.
1:53:52
[SPEAKER_02]: There's always going to be a couple I imagine and the Senate was one of those for a long time but there's other
1:53:59
[SPEAKER_02]: In addition to the ones I mentioned specifically, those are just ones that are in tight races right now.
1:54:04
[SPEAKER_02]: There's other Democrats in Peru are in purple states that have solid Democrat, like they're gonna win for sure, that are also not progressive.
1:54:16
[SPEAKER_02]: So, you know, we'll see how it goes.
1:54:19
[SPEAKER_02]: But I don't think the Republicans are keeping that else.
1:54:21
[SPEAKER_02]: No, no, I don't either.
1:54:23
[SPEAKER_02]: But I mean, I wouldn't be, if, if I saw it at 220 Republican, I wouldn't be shocked because there's some bad polling out there that's some really bad polling.
1:54:30
[SPEAKER_02]: I just think too, I don't, I don't see their get the 220.
1:54:33
[SPEAKER_02]: No.
1:54:33
[SPEAKER_03]: No.
1:54:35
[SPEAKER_05]: It's, uh, no.
1:54:38
[SPEAKER_05]: And again, historically, it doesn't, it, it, it's usually happens no matter who's it is.
1:54:43
[SPEAKER_05]: So it doesn't, it doesn't, nothing you can really do, but Senator is very, very important.
1:54:48
[SPEAKER_05]: Um, because if those two Supreme Court justices retire, that will give Trump two extra shots to put people in there and, uh, hopefully he chooses better than Amy Coney Barrett and, um, whoever that dick was, so.
1:55:03
[SPEAKER_05]: We'll see, but join us on Tuesday nights, seven o'clock soon as the polls close.
1:55:08
[SPEAKER_05]: We will be live with you on every single platform available.
1:55:14
[SPEAKER_05]: Coop.
1:55:15
[SPEAKER_05]: How do the experience go with our first test here?
1:55:18
[SPEAKER_03]: So far it's been going great getting a lot of good feedback on keeping notes of any technical issues that people are running into and the majority of them I'm going to be able to address there's some that are on patreon side that's just patreon needing to update their app but so far it is all of our shit work to do everything so everything's going great on our end All right, because they got to call with home way afterwards So I said look there's going to be a long show if it works it works and that was you know what we were wanting and then also playing something illegal Yep
1:55:46
[SPEAKER_05]: that work too.
1:55:48
[SPEAKER_05]: So, you know, with that, we get to the drinking bro of the week.
1:55:52
[SPEAKER_05]: You could submit at drinkinbrows.com.
1:55:57
[SPEAKER_05]: Also, the bro box is up there right now.
1:55:59
[SPEAKER_05]: Last month, sold out.
1:56:01
[SPEAKER_05]: It has been on fire.
1:56:03
[SPEAKER_05]: All the new shirts.
1:56:04
[SPEAKER_05]: So, the new fun stuff is up there.
1:56:06
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm sure I'm wearing the flock under shirt today.
1:56:10
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't even notice.
1:56:11
[SPEAKER_05]: All my shirts are like drinking bros gear.
1:56:13
[SPEAKER_05]: So, like I just
1:56:16
[SPEAKER_05]: And you only buy the best stuff, right?
1:56:18
[SPEAKER_05]: Well, I do, but the hilarious part is take my kids' school, like, 715.
1:56:25
[SPEAKER_05]: Sometimes it was an inappropriate shirt, like the Penn State cocaine one.
1:56:30
[SPEAKER_03]: Yeah, I've run into that issue a few times with my niece and nephew going to their events, specifically with shirts that I got from Drinking Pros.
1:56:37
[SPEAKER_05]: I had to turn it inside out, I was going to pick up my dog.
1:56:41
[SPEAKER_05]: I was like, oh, shit.
1:56:43
[SPEAKER_03]: I showed up for my niece's 10th birthday party.
1:56:48
[SPEAKER_03]: I went straight from the studio over to her birthday party and I didn't realize that I was wearing the old all-politicians or cunts, T-shirt, until I got to the party.
1:56:57
[SPEAKER_05]: You're welcome.
1:56:58
[SPEAKER_05]: You're welcome.
1:57:00
[SPEAKER_05]: Smeer the queer champion is up there.
1:57:01
[SPEAKER_05]: Yeah, that's, that's, we got all the classics too.
1:57:04
[SPEAKER_05]: Everything's up there.
1:57:05
[SPEAKER_05]: And then you get all the summits at the app.
1:57:07
[SPEAKER_05]: Drinking Bro's app is free on iPhones and Android's.
1:57:12
[SPEAKER_05]: But today, I'm going to give it to you, Coupe.
1:57:15
[SPEAKER_05]: This is a fucking long hard process, man.
1:57:17
[SPEAKER_03]: Thanks, man.
1:57:18
[SPEAKER_05]: Go and I'll just send the back end and I'm going to be honest.
1:57:21
[SPEAKER_05]: I'm stunned that it works on the first go round.
1:57:24
[SPEAKER_03]: I know we did a test from last night together, but like shit.
1:57:26
[SPEAKER_03]: That was one of the reasons I was so excited when I texted you last night.
1:57:29
[SPEAKER_03]: Because I don't all went off without a hitch.
1:57:30
[SPEAKER_03]: I was like, oh, dude, that's a huge weight off of yours.
1:57:32
[SPEAKER_03]: Because this tech shit man is fucking hard.
1:57:35
[SPEAKER_04]: If you're somewhere around with applause, man.
1:57:36
[SPEAKER_04]: Yeah, for real, dude.
1:57:37
[SPEAKER_04]: I don't like pressing the button for myself.
1:57:40
[SPEAKER_04]: Just if you ever want to me to give you a round of applause, just let me know in our reach over.
1:57:44
[SPEAKER_03]: Exactly.
1:57:45
[SPEAKER_03]: Next time, I'll take you up on that one.
1:57:47
[SPEAKER_05]: Because now we can start putting more illegal shit up, like songs and all the other fucking porn or anything, but like music, like just 200 songs, so we'll get on that one.
1:57:56
[SPEAKER_05]: Like the day we talk about fucking shit, we'd love to do on Patreon.
1:57:59
[SPEAKER_05]: So now we can, but yeah, god damn, that's a good long time.
1:58:03
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, great.
1:58:04
[SPEAKER_05]: I'll call the app guy after this as well.
1:58:07
[SPEAKER_05]: Congratulations.
1:58:08
[SPEAKER_05]: This is great.
1:58:09
[SPEAKER_05]: All right, kids.
1:58:11
[SPEAKER_05]: Appreciate tuning in.
1:58:12
[SPEAKER_05]: Go to iTunes.
1:58:13
[SPEAKER_05]: Write the show a five star and leave a quick review.
1:58:16
[SPEAKER_05]: These Friday shows that we used it on YouTube will now be on Patreon.
1:58:21
[SPEAKER_05]: And that way you got six shows a week that are live over on Patreon.
1:58:27
[SPEAKER_05]: And then we'll put this up on Sunday nights on Spotify and all that other shit, but At least you got something throughout your day here, and this was fun, man.
1:58:36
[SPEAKER_05]: But please rate these shows a five star and leave a quick review on iTunes and Spotify the video will be up.
1:58:44
[SPEAKER_05]: That really is all the advertisers give a shit about and right now is the season.
1:58:48
[SPEAKER_05]: So we're getting calls left and right about next year for advertising and that's what keeps the lights on here.
1:58:53
[SPEAKER_05]: For Dan the Dan the New Holloway, I'm Ross Patterson.
1:58:56
[SPEAKER_05]: This is the Drinking Bro's podcast.
1:58:58
[SPEAKER_05]: Good night everyone.