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Inside the standoff: are the US and Iran preparing for war again? | The Fourcast Indicators · The Fourcast

0:00
Another aircraft carrier on its way dispatched from the East
0:03
Coast, and on the other side of it, the Iranians working away at
0:08
unblocking the tunnels to a couple of those missile cities.
0:12
Now that might give them dozens of missile launches again if
0:16
things restarted. You've got the blockade or the
0:18
blockade, which seems to be working quite well.
0:21
You've got a hexa threatening Hellfire once again, and you've
0:24
got the military buildup. Do we think, Lindsay, that all
0:27
this will actually get the Iranians back to the negotiating
0:31
table? It's very difficult to take
0:34
apart the rhetoric and the reality.
0:40
Hello and welcome to the forecast indicators, with me,
0:43
Matt Fry alongside the Defence and Intelligence analyst Mark
0:46
Urban. And indeed, on this podcast, we
0:48
are looking for indicators, those signs that analysts watch
0:52
most closely, hints that suggest imminent change may be coming.
0:56
And we're joined today by Channel 4 News International
0:59
editor Lindsay Hilson. Welcome.
1:01
Thank you, Mark. And there have been plenty of
1:03
renewed efforts in Pakistan to forge a lasting peace.
1:06
But there are also plenty of indicators.
1:08
But both sides are still readying for further war.
1:11
Lindsay, what's going on? It's very difficult to take
1:15
apart the rhetoric and the reality, isn't it?
1:18
Because obviously if you're trying to threaten the other
1:21
side to say don't do that again because we're going to come for
1:25
you, then you're going to ramp it up.
1:27
And so that's why we're seeing threats from both sides.
1:31
But I haven't seen any indication yet that either side
1:35
really wants to go back to war. When I say either side, I'm
1:39
saying the US and Iran, Israel is a is a different matter
1:43
completely. But I think that the indications
1:47
from President Trump are he really would like this thing to
1:51
be over. He wants it done.
1:53
He's had enough. But whether he has control or
1:57
we've got no indication of that, do we?
1:59
So I've been looking at some of the indicators of what will
2:03
happen if the talks fail in that sense and the degree to which
2:07
the two sides are preparing for the worst if hoping for the best
2:11
on that front. And I agree, I think certainly
2:14
US and Iran are hoping for the best talks wise and indeed the
2:18
Gulf states. So firstly, really stepped up
2:22
air bridge this week of American heavy transport taking basically
2:25
more bombs to the region because the US was presumably running
2:29
low. Another aircraft carrier on its
2:33
way dispatched from the East Coast the Bush, which will join
2:38
the Ford, which has just gone around all.
2:40
The great presidents. Indeed, South Africa and the
2:43
Lincoln, which is already on station.
2:45
Now, this potentially brings the Americans to three carriers,
2:50
which they haven't had so far. And on the other side of it,
2:54
some fascinating imagery on Israeli media this week from
2:58
satellites showing the Iranians working away at unblocking the
3:03
tunnels to a couple of those missile cities where, you know,
3:07
they're hundreds of feet of rock.
3:09
The Americans and the Israelis couldn't penetrate that, so they
3:12
sealed up the missile launchers in the tunnels by blocking the
3:15
exits. And we know that the Iranians
3:17
are using this ceasefire period to work away and open them up.
3:20
Now that might give them dozens of missile launchers again if
3:24
things restarted. And also, of course, if it's
3:26
another indicator at all, it's what has come out of Pete Hex's
3:29
mouth this morning. The Secretary of War, as he
3:32
likes to be called, giving a press conference in which he
3:34
said we are and he loves that phrase.
3:36
We are locked and loaded. They are locked and loaded.
3:40
And he said to hit the the civilian military dual use
3:44
infrastructure of Iran. So I wonder if this amounts to a
3:47
kind of, I guess the administration will call it 3
3:50
dimensional chess. Other people might call it
3:52
desperation to open the Strait of Hormuz.
3:55
You've got the blockade or the blockade, which seems to be
3:57
working quite well. You've got a hexa kind of
4:01
threatening Hellfire once again. And you've got the military
4:03
buildup, increased buildup that you just described.
4:07
Do we think, Lindsay, that all this will actually get the
4:11
Iranians back to the negotiating table and and and lead to some
4:15
kind of permanent settlement? Well, I, I think that the
4:18
Iranians think that they have a certain advantage at the moment,
4:21
and that advantage is the Strait of Hormuz.
4:24
But they know obviously that their military has been
4:27
degraded. And I'm not sure that they would
4:31
see a huge advantage in going back to war because they are
4:36
militarily weaker. And, you know, their survival
4:40
has been a win for them. And the fact that they are able
4:44
to control this asset now, the Strait of Hormuz, even though,
4:47
you know, the Americans, as you say, are blockading the
4:49
blockade, they've done pretty well.
4:51
And I think that for them, it might be diminishing returns.
4:56
The other way in which they've done well diplomatically is much
4:59
of the world is pretty much on their side in the sense that
5:03
they, you, Asian countries do not want this war to restart.
5:08
They've had so much trouble with the the rise in the oil price.
5:12
You know, they're having to bring in special economic
5:15
measures. And also many governments see
5:18
this as a war of choice and a war of aggression on the
5:22
American and Israeli side. So diplomatically, the Iranians
5:26
have done pretty well. I don't think they want to waste
5:29
that. The use of Lego as a, you know,
5:32
in their memes is quite extraordinary.
5:34
So they've, they're quite creative in their social media
5:37
propaganda. And whenever there's a, any new
5:39
development, including Trump appearing as Jesus Christ, I'm
5:42
sorry, I meant to say chief healer of the United States,
5:45
they immediately turned that into, you know, a Lego meme that
5:48
was incredibly funny. So they know how to, you know,
5:50
hit all the satirical neuralgia parts.
5:53
And who would have thrown them? Who would have thought they were
5:54
great comedians? Well, and also anybody who's
5:57
spent any time in Iran and they always when they tell you a
5:59
joke, then they always say, oh, it sounds better in Persian it
6:01
right. But also posseschian the
6:04
president, he was out there defending the Pope against the
6:09
Americans. So you could see how much the
6:11
Iranians have managed to turn things on their head in that
6:14
way. But the hard military side of it
6:17
is that they are weaker. And so they, you know, they have
6:20
to be careful with that. You've got Posseschian defending
6:22
the Christian interests and of course JD Vance telling the Pope
6:25
he shouldn't hold forth on matters of theology, which.
6:28
Yes. Which JG ban says that?
6:29
You convert to Catholicism. He knows far more about it than
6:32
the. Pope extraordinarily, I want to
6:34
just come back on some things there, Lindsay.
6:37
And I want to talk about some of the other elements of this.
6:39
Now, I would have thought the Asian countries and indeed the
6:44
Gulf Arab states are communicating with Iran to try
6:48
and keep this going, this ceasefire going.
6:51
And in that sense, I think the Iranians do have to think about
6:55
the day after. Do they want a totally destroyed
6:58
relationship with those neighbors that they've
7:00
bombarded? You know, far more missiles and
7:02
drones fired at the UAE than at Israel?
7:05
Do they really want the financial markets of Dubai and
7:07
Abu Dhabi closed them? And I think that might give us
7:10
some clues why some threats earlier this week from Iran to
7:14
activate the Houthis to close off the Babel Mandeb that's the
7:18
straight between the Red Sea and the Iranians have not
7:22
materialized. So that's another key indicator
7:24
for me. Why has that not happened?
7:27
Is it that the Saudis who send a lot of their oil now from the
7:32
Red Sea down through that straight to those Asian
7:35
customers are saying to them, you know, please don't.
7:39
Maybe we can come to some post war understanding about our
7:42
relationship as long as you allow us to keep it exporting or
7:46
we don't know. I'm speculating.
7:48
But boy oh boy is that a fascinating indicator that the
7:51
bubble mandate the fact the Iranians have not pulled that
7:54
lever yet. I know you mentioned at the
7:56
beginning that the Israelis are playing their own game here.
8:00
And I wonder to what extent looking at the Israeli public, I
8:03
mean, this is a public that was 90, almost 90% behind the war
8:07
when it started. And they're not happy that this
8:11
this thing has ended with not regime change, but regime, you
8:15
know, inheritance to from Khamenei senior to Khamenei
8:18
junior. So the Israelis are, as ever,
8:21
the wild card, don't you think? Yes.
8:23
And let's separate out the two things.
8:24
There's Israel and Iran. Now Israel is not happy with
8:28
what has happened. They would like to go further
8:30
and go more, but they can't do that without Trump.
8:34
And so they, you know, that they haven't achieved regime change,
8:38
even though President Trump keeps pretending that they have
8:41
and saying this is a new regime. It is not a new regime.
8:43
It is the same regime. But let's put that on one side
8:46
and talk about Lebanon. I noticed that this morning the
8:50
Israelis bombed the last bridge which takes you from the South
8:55
of Lebanon to the north. So I think what we may see is
9:00
the Israelis trying to keep hold of the South, which they have to
9:04
some extent occupied. They told everybody to leave.
9:08
Many people did leave, I suppose, but not everybody.
9:11
And you know, we remember 1982 when they occupied quite a lot
9:16
of Lebanon. I think that the Israeli, yes,
9:19
for two decades, I think the Israeli government would like to
9:22
occupy that area to create what they call a buffer zone, what
9:26
everybody else would call part of Lebanon.
9:28
Just one more thing. When we talk about a ceasefire
9:31
with Israel, that's usually means that the other side ceases
9:34
fire, because in the ceasefire they had since 2024 with
9:38
Hezbollah, Hezbollah did abide by that ceasefire and the
9:42
Israelis did not, as in Ghazi. I mean, you went in Lebanon for
9:45
two weeks. Why did Hezbollah give the
9:46
Israelis the excuse to kind of pummel them after February the
9:50
28th? I mean, they they fired a couple
9:52
of rockets into northern Israel. It's exactly what the Israelis
9:54
were waiting for. Why on earth?
9:56
Did they do that? OK.
9:57
And that's a question which many Lebanese were asking as well.
10:02
And the answer, as I understood it from people I spoke to, was
10:06
that the Hezbollah leadership were pleasing the Iranians
10:11
because they did it as revenge for the killing of Ayatollah
10:15
Khamenei. And that is one reason that so
10:18
many Lebanese are furious with Hezbollah, because they say this
10:22
was not the killing of a Lebanese politician or spiritual
10:26
leader. This was the killing of an
10:29
Iranian leader. And that shows the extent to
10:32
which Hezbollah is just a tool of the Iranians and is not the
10:36
resistance, as they call themselves.
10:38
But of course, many of the Shiites of of of Lebanon do see
10:43
Hezbollah as the resistance, and maybe even more so now because
10:46
Israel has been pounding Lebanon so much and has killed so many
10:51
civilians. At the outset of this, the
10:54
Lebanese government outlawed them as an armed organisation,
10:56
didn't they? And has that just disappeared
10:58
into the winds or or does that form a basis for something Nash?
11:02
Because, of course, historically the problem has always been
11:05
they've not been strong enough to enforce that.
11:07
No, look, I spoke to the justice minister and he was working hard
11:11
to try and implement that and he was.
11:13
So there was a day when they arrested a lot of Hezbollah
11:17
armed men and he said we're gonna put them on trial the next
11:20
day. The judge released them with a
11:23
$20 fine. So then the Justice Ministry
11:26
sacked the judges. So you can see, you know, the
11:29
judge who was involved in that. So you can see that this is this
11:32
is something within the the Lebanese body politic.
11:35
It's a problem because the government isn't strong enough.
11:38
And also so many members of the Lebanese army, they're Shiite
11:43
and many of them do to some extent support Hezbollah.
11:46
So the actual armed confrontation, which may be
11:49
required to disarm Hezbollah, because you can't do it all
11:52
through the law, trying to do it by, you know, actually going in
11:56
and taking the weapons off them. There's a great, A, the army
11:59
might not do it. And B, you have the great fear
12:01
in Lebanon that you're going to create another civil war as you
12:05
had back in the 70s and 80s. So there's it's, it's extremely
12:09
difficult and tense and, and dangerous.
12:11
And let me say one other thing. The Lebanese government expelled
12:15
the Iranian ambassador and he refused to leave.
12:18
Oh really? And he's still there.
12:21
As far as I know. Yes, and and there's been
12:23
various threats, aren't there to the government for even talking
12:27
to the Israelis. Well, this is really
12:29
fascinating. I mean, I was there for two
12:31
weeks and as I've told you before, you know, we're in and
12:33
out of bunkers and shelters all the time.
12:35
And you kind of, you'd think that the Israeli public would
12:38
get really tired of the stuff, especially since, you know, they
12:41
had quite a bit of it after October the 7th and they were
12:44
traumatized by October the 7th. But actually, this war was
12:47
remarkably popular and still is. And more importantly, and this
12:51
is a problem for Prime Minister Netanyahu, especially in an
12:54
election year, the Israeli public doesn't think that it's
12:57
finished business. In Iran, not in Lebanon.
13:00
Sorry, Iran. Crucially in Iran, I mean
13:02
actually Lebanon too. I think in Lebanon, the Lebanon
13:04
war has a lot of support, especially in the north because
13:08
that's where Israelis live. And, but, but Iran is the big
13:11
the, the UR problem for the Israelis, understandably so.
13:14
It has been for a long time. It's been netting our signature
13:17
issues being banging on and on about it.
13:19
They were always two weeks away from enriching a bomb even 50
13:21
years ago, over 15 years ago. Anyway, the point is that the
13:25
public wants the war to continue to continue even though they are
13:28
tired of spending the night in the shelter.
13:31
And I think it puts Bibi Netanyahu, Benjamin Netanyahu, I
13:35
prefer to call him into a very tricky position because this was
13:40
going to be his signature issue on which he was going to ride to
13:43
re election. And if you look at the opinion
13:46
polls, even though the war is popular, he is no more popular
13:49
than he was at the beginning of the war.
13:51
It hasn't benefited him. And now that the war has been
13:53
sort of frozen in time, it could actually harm him in the polls.
13:57
And you may say Paul Schmolds, but he cares deeply about them
14:01
because one way of staying out of jail is to stay in power.
14:05
I think his problem in a way with this is that he uses such
14:10
extravagant rhetoric when launching these military
14:13
campaigns. If you look at the campaign of
14:15
late 2024 against Hezbollah or the June war against Iran, in
14:20
both cases he basically said problem solved.
14:24
And then when you go to war again so soon?
14:26
But so did Trump, by the way. His mate.
14:27
So. Well, he said.
14:28
Nuclear program obliterate. Yeah, but that was his.
14:30
That was his his mission. But I think as far as Israeli
14:34
public, you can sometimes Gee them up with this idea.
14:37
Look, this is the last time we're going to have to do this
14:39
dot dot dot for for a very long time that they sort of buy that.
14:44
But if you come back and go to war, you know, less than a year
14:47
later, having said you've wiped out the Iranian nuclear and
14:51
missile programs, I think inevitably then you will be
14:55
looking less credible. And of course, Yair Lapid and
14:59
Naftali Bennett, the two of the principal opposition figures,
15:02
have been making political hay on that theme, haven't they,
15:05
saying that that Netanyahu has basically taken them deeper and
15:09
deeper into danger rather than solving.
15:12
But also there's an amazing resilience in Israeli society.
15:14
It's not just people going on the beach in Tel Aviv as soon as
15:17
the alarms are over. It's you know, the stock market
15:19
has been going gangbuster since since October the 7th more
15:22
that's with a few blips. You know, the, the, the currency
15:25
is strong. Israel has an incredible ability
15:28
and has developed for many, many years to be remarkably
15:32
resilient. You know, in a dangerous
15:34
neighborhood where it often creates the danger itself,
15:37
right. So whether it's it's walls in
15:39
Bethlehem, the Iron Dome or, you know, or, or David's arrow, I
15:43
mean, they, they have an amazing ability to carry on and to carry
15:46
on thriving. Even though you know the amount
15:49
of money that the government spends on on the wall, the fact
15:53
that people have to do their military service for a month.
15:55
And even though in the long term they have alienated so many
16:00
people and governments and the Commission of war crimes means
16:04
that they have made an enemy of many governments.
16:07
You know, you look at the Spanish government and so on.
16:08
You make different European governments.
16:10
And you know, in America, you now, you know, rising anti
16:13
Israeli feeling all of this squandered for a belief in brute
16:18
force which history tells us may not always yield the results you
16:22
want. I think that is a hook for you
16:26
to give us an indicator. Another indicator.
16:28
About so that that vote the Democrats, yes.
16:31
So this is. 40 out of 47 this is This was a package of weaponry.
16:37
And bulldozers, so crucially $257 million spent on
16:41
bulldozers. I suspect bulldozers were part
16:44
of that because bulldozers are the things that flatten
16:46
buildings in in the West Bank and Gaza, of course.
16:50
And then and then one thousand 2000 LB bombs, you tell me, but
16:53
these are pretty big bombs. So they are also on that list.
16:57
Now, what was interesting is that not only has American
17:02
public opinion really quite consistently now over the last
17:05
year turned against Israel, it's also turned against Israel in
17:09
this particular war, which was never popular with the American
17:12
public. And this is beginning to reflect
17:14
in the votes in Congress. So the Democrats used to be, I
17:19
mean, Democrat senators used to be people that you go do go to
17:23
reliably to support Israel in a time of crisis. 40 Democratic
17:27
senators led by Bernie Sanders voted against this package.
17:33
Now, the Republicans still passed it.
17:35
Democrats couldn't veto it. But if you're looking at an
17:37
election year with the midterms coming down the pipe, which
17:42
where the Democrats are very likely to sweep the House and
17:46
possibly even get a majority in the Senate again.
17:48
And I say this all the time when I'm in Israel and I talk to
17:50
Israeli politicians. In the short term, you may feel
17:53
that every problem is a nail and every solution is a hammer and
17:57
you're winning that one. But in the long term, your big
18:01
buddy on the other side of the ocean, Uncle Sam, who's, you
18:04
know, done a few odd things recently, channelling Dirty
18:08
Harry more than Uncle Sam, may not be as reliable as you think.
18:12
And these votes in a year where things could tilt further in the
18:15
Democrats faith, in fact most likely to if I was an Israeli
18:18
politician, I'd be very alarmed. Obviously with the roaring
18:22
Israeli stock market and a very good shackle to dollar exchange
18:27
rate at the moment there, there's an indicator for you.
18:30
A lot of Americans are saying, yeah, actually why do we give
18:33
them all that military assistance?
18:34
They've got plenty of money and, and, and Netanyahu to some
18:38
extent is leaning into that and saying, yes, let's accelerate
18:42
the phasing out of these so-called FMS, foreign military
18:46
sales credits that the US gives. I mean, it's an interesting one.
18:51
Do they really have the ability to switch over entirely to
18:55
domestic production or, or buying stuff?
18:58
Cash on the nail, of course. It's not just that the Americans
19:01
will stop doing business with them.
19:03
I mean, it's a fascinating one for the future.
19:05
You know what, I would be very surprised if the Israeli
19:09
Republic was entirely comfortable with Uncle Sam doing
19:13
his own thing and the Israelis becoming more independent.
19:16
But on the way to the airport, which of course is not operation
19:20
at the moment, but on the on the big motorway between Jerusalem
19:23
and Tel Aviv near Ben Gurion Airport, there's there were
19:26
these massive posters with a picture of Donald Trump looking,
19:31
yes, you know, his finest saying thank you, President Trump,
19:36
don't stop now. And they flash up every few
19:41
minutes. Someone's paid a lot of money
19:42
for them. And that is, you know, and
19:44
Trump's not particularly popular because of his, you know,
19:48
domestic language, because it was language in general with
19:51
kind of Israelis, trendy Israelis that you meet in Tel
19:54
Aviv. But they really like that he's
19:56
supporting Israel in this war against Iran.
19:58
So I don't think as well as the point yet where I can say
20:02
goodbye to all that. I think that we are seeing a lot
20:05
of new alignments and one of the things which is most significant
20:09
is the alignment between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
20:13
And obviously with that goes the possibility of, you know, after
20:18
the Abraham Accords, you know, of getting a deal with Saudi
20:20
Arabia and so. On Do you think that's still on
20:21
the cards? Yes, I think that after this war
20:26
with Iran, it becomes more so because the the Iranians become
20:31
more of the enemy of the Gulf than they were before.
20:33
They had a sort of accommodation before and the.
20:35
Saudis have to be. They have to rely on themselves
20:37
in the neighborhood. Yeah, and so and so, and because
20:40
I think everybody is seeing America as more unreliable as a
20:43
partner because Donald Trump is an unreliable person.
20:46
You don't know what's going to happen next.
20:48
So, you know, I think as you know, you look, I mean, here's
20:53
the world's most obscure indicator, the Israeli
20:56
recognition of Somaliland, which is, you know, but that is that
21:01
is made in the UAE. That is all about the, the
21:05
connections and the ports down the down the coast and all that
21:08
kind of thing. So we might see all sorts of
21:11
realignments coming up in the years to come.
21:14
I've, I think, I still think it's a very hard one for Saudi
21:17
Arabia unless there's progress on the Gaza.
21:20
Yeah, I agree. Of course, I agree with you.
21:21
I'm looking a bit further ahead, but yes, of course.
21:23
I agree with you, but I think the Saudis, I mean, they have
21:26
oscillated about during this war.
21:29
And one of the things that's been fascinating is watching how
21:34
many missiles and drones the Iranians have been treating them
21:37
to at various points. It started off very low compared
21:41
with the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain.
21:44
But at a certain point, a lot of the fire started switching
21:47
towards Saudi Arabia. Now, some of these things we can
21:49
only guess at what's going on behind the scenes.
21:52
Possibly they thought the Saudis were about to come into the war
21:56
or they wanted to create a gulf between the UAE and the Saudis.
21:59
Always, always an an option there.
22:01
And then, then it's slackened off a bit now.
22:04
And you know, you also ask yourself, as the Saudis started
22:08
pumping about 5-6 million barrels of oil a day across
22:13
their country to the Red Sea and the Iranians promised they'd hit
22:16
it, is it being spared because they've lost the ability?
22:22
They've been bombed so heavily that someone might have given
22:25
the order, blow up the pipeline, but just flying the old drone at
22:28
it is not going to do it. Or is it deliberate?
22:31
You know, is it allowing the Saudis to keep exporting a
22:34
certain amount of oil? All of these relationships are
22:37
opaque. And yes, in the post war, I
22:40
mean, gosh, we can be sure of a few things, can't we?
22:43
They will be spending gazillions on weaponry, refilling all those
22:48
patriots and other things they've fired off trying to
22:51
close the gaps on, like drones and other things.
22:54
They will be spending gazillions on infrastructure, more
22:57
pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, hardening their
23:01
existing oil and power and desalinate.
23:03
All that stuff will be happening.
23:05
And I think in the case of Saudi Arabia, another thing we've seen
23:08
this month is significant deployments of Pakistani
23:11
military into Saudi Arabia. So the people are estimating
23:14
15,000 Pakistani military have deployed in the last couple of
23:19
weeks with dozens of combat aircraft.
23:21
Is this all part of a sort of we can no longer rely on America
23:25
and we don't want to rely on Israel?
23:27
Yeah. And.
23:28
You've got that arms treaty, you've got that treaty here
23:30
between Pakistan, mutual defence pact between Pakistan and Saudi
23:33
Arabia. So presumably that that fits in
23:35
and that makes you question whether so is, is Pakistan
23:39
really a a neutral intermediary between Iran and the Americans?
23:43
I'm I'm not sure. How much skin in the game do
23:45
they have? I also wonder how much as an
23:47
indicator that I don't know about whether the 600 billion
23:52
U.S. dollars that Mohammed bin Salman promised to invest in AI.
23:57
Remember, this is right after the inauguration.
24:00
There was this big promise that he would they would pile all the
24:02
Saudi money into the US. And I wonder how much of that
24:07
money Mohammed is now telling Donald, I'm so sorry.
24:11
We're going to have to keep some of these Easter eggs for
24:13
ourselves because we're going to have to beef up our defence
24:15
because you started this thing that you didn't tell us about.
24:18
In terms of people getting on and off planes, you had Field
24:21
Marshall mania going to Tehran yesterday.
24:24
The the chief of staff, the Pakistani military, some people
24:28
say the most powerful man in the country.
24:31
What are you looking for? Because initially there, there
24:33
were rumours around that there might be another meeting in
24:36
Islamabad today. In fact, we're clearly, well, I
24:39
was going to say clearly that's not happened, but it's not
24:42
happened at the Avert level. What are you looking?
24:44
For well, what I'm he's supposed to be having a meeting, I think
24:48
with Charlie Boff, who's the speaker of the Iranian
24:51
parliament, who is, you're the person who went to the meeting
24:54
which they had with Jodie Vance. That meeting is supposed to be
24:58
happening today. So presume, I presume what the
25:00
Pakistanis are doing a bit of shuttle diplomacy at the moment
25:03
that they're checking out what the Iranian position are, is in
25:06
the hope of getting some kind of negotiation going again.
25:10
I mean, it, it, it was done in such a strange way.
25:13
Because normally the way diplomacy is done it you is that
25:15
you have the Sherpas, you have the, the more junior people
25:18
going and sorting things out and you bring in the principles, the
25:21
senior people at the very end when you kind of know what
25:24
you're talking about. Whereas what they did this time
25:26
was they brought in the very senior people right at the
25:27
beginning. And surprise, surprise, they
25:29
didn't agree things because there hadn't been enough
25:32
preparation. But that's.
25:33
Donald is that part of is that part of his impatience, Trump's
25:35
impatience? Trump's impatience and it's
25:37
doing things upside down. It doesn't work.
25:39
So I presume that what without you know, and I don't have first
25:42
hand knowledge, I haven't been speaking to the bargainers.
25:44
I presume that they're trying to get this onto such a footing
25:47
that they can actually build something up which is a bit more
25:50
solid, as you know, as a ground for negotiation and and to keep
25:54
going. Yeah, you're well, obviously
25:56
you're right about. That obviously I'm right.
25:57
The normal way that principles are brought in once the ground
26:01
works on. But that's that's diplomacy.
26:03
Pre Trump, perhaps? It is.
26:04
Perhaps it's it's a it's a feature of the diplomacy in the
26:08
Trumpian age that the big photo op is a key part.
26:11
Yeah, but it hasn't. Worked, yeah, but you start, you
26:14
get the ball rolling with the photo, albeit JD Vance, not not
26:17
the man himself. And then?
26:20
But but it. Doesn't get the.
26:21
The Sherpa's working doesn't work.
26:22
And also you wondered what I mean, I'm, I'm fascinated by the
26:25
talks that did take place. And it's rather bad, apparently
26:27
21 hours of talks described by the BJ's mouth and talks.
26:32
I mean, when you compare that to the JCPOA talks or to the date
26:36
and accords or any other thing that actually came up with a,
26:39
you know, with, with a viable agreement that stuck, this was
26:43
nothing. This was a flea bite of
26:44
diplomacy. So I'm trying to imagine what
26:47
this looked like. So as JD Vance is in there, he,
26:50
he didn't like the war in the 1st place.
26:51
He knows he's been given a poison chalice by the boss.
26:53
Apparently he pops out all the time to talk to the boss who's
26:56
at a, at a wrestling match. I mean, none of this bodes well
26:59
for actually any, any kind of diplomatic solution.
27:03
And do you think they I wonder if they realise that they made a
27:05
mistake or maybe they think they haven't made a mistake?
27:08
Well, hold up. You know, I could be routed
27:12
tomorrow by some news, but the ceasefire's still holding.
27:15
And it does seem to be a sort of view that it it's likely to be
27:20
extended once again, fingers crossed, and all the rest of it.
27:23
But so so in that sense. But.
27:26
It's by this is in everyone's interest, including the Iranian.
27:28
Well, it's. For all the reasons we've, yeah.
27:30
Yeah. So, but then you go back to the
27:31
underlying problem. What, what caused the war in the
27:33
1st place or what caused the war in the 1st place was Benjamin
27:37
Netanyahu persuading Donald Trump that this was a good idea.
27:40
But when you go to the, you know, the deeper issues, which
27:43
are the Iranian, you know, the nuclear programme, the ballistic
27:46
missiles, you know all of this. Yes, Iran has been depleted and
27:53
degraded, but these problems have not been solved by this war
27:57
and new problems have been created.
27:59
And the one thing that we talked about at the beginning of the
28:02
year, which was, you know, the possibility of regime change
28:05
Iran by the Iranian people who are being massacred on the
28:08
streets. I mean, no one talks about that
28:10
anymore. It's just I mean.
28:11
But that was pie in the sky anyway, because regimes do not
28:14
fall of. Course because of.
28:15
People out in the streets, they fall.
28:17
When the men with guns refused to shoot the people.
28:20
In and that was always the case. But I do think it's important
28:22
that in Donald Trump's mind, after Venezuela literally days
28:25
afterwards, these demonstrations on the streets of Tehran and 17
28:30
other cities gave him a moral foil to double down on what he
28:35
thought was, you know, America's supreme military superiority.
28:39
They can go in and statue leader put them on trial in Brooklyn.
28:43
They can do the same thing. Or you know, all the things that
28:45
we've talked about, all the miscalculations were also
28:48
leavened at the beginning by the demonstrations on the streets of
28:51
Tehran, which no one talks about anymore.
28:54
Now it's possible that once things and normalised people
28:57
come out of their bunkers and their and their sellers or
28:59
whatever and go back on the streets again, that maybe then
29:02
they'll have the courage to do something.
29:04
Indeed you are. You are paraphrasing what Trump
29:07
said in his video message at the start of the war.
29:10
He said stay at home. When we have stopped bombing,
29:14
that will be the time for you to come out and claim your freedom.
29:17
More or less. I'm now paraphrasing.
29:19
We'll see about that. Yeah, well.
29:22
Yeah, but I don't know. I mean, if you look at the
29:24
economic prospectus of of the regime and once again, you know,
29:30
regime survival, that that's their overarching imperative, I
29:34
think that does explain why there's still a ceasefire to do
29:38
with some of these regional relationships as well.
29:40
They must be thinking, what on earth are we going to do the day
29:44
after? I saw an estimate today that the
29:46
destruction of those steel mills and a couple of other bits of
29:49
industry could make 5 million people people unemployed in
29:53
Iraq. And of course there are economic
29:55
reasons, the start of the protest at the beginning of the
29:57
year, so that is something. So potentially huge downstream
29:59
consequences And if if you're also thinking in 3D as as an
30:04
Iranian, as a senior Iranian, hang on a minute, our access to
30:08
sources of capital in Dubai and Abu Dhabi is over you, you must
30:14
be asking yourself some very difficult questions about how
30:17
you're going to get through the next few months.
30:19
So you know. When you're going to get through
30:22
it, they think by controlling the straight of form.
30:24
Moves and and shaking down. No, absolutely.
30:26
And shaking. No, that's a good in crypto and
30:29
the US from from an. Iranian perspective, that's a
30:31
good plan and and it was a, in a sense a master stroke
30:35
strategically, but the money won't come fast enough to to
30:40
rebuild that industrial capacity quickly.
30:43
I would not be surprised. I'm going to put my name on the
30:46
record here. If this thing doesn't end, you
30:49
know, getting completely South and the war resumes, If Donald
30:52
Trump suddenly says in a week's time, you know what, there's a
30:55
great deal to be done with the Iranians on oil.
30:58
We give you a ceasefire that lasts and our oil companies will
31:02
go in and do business as they used to watch that space.
31:07
That will be his final thing and he'll say it was all worth it.
31:10
My friends, we've got American companies involved in extracting
31:13
Iranian oil. We're going to ship those to the
31:16
state of hormones, by the way, where we will charge a toll, but
31:19
it'll be shared by the Omanis, the Iranians, and by us, by the
31:22
Americans. He already said that, he said.
31:24
Who's going to control the straight form?
31:26
As he said, maybe I'm going to control it.
31:28
Maybe the Ayatollas. Maybe with the ayatollas he
31:30
already. Came up and so you want so the
31:32
final indicator of this yeah indicator banquet yes goes to
31:36
you Lindsay. Go on.
31:38
But I'm really interested, is it an indicator or is it a
31:40
ramification? Is what the ramifications of all
31:43
this are for international shipping because we have seen
31:47
the Iranians leap on this idea. Oh look, we can charge these
31:51
ships going through the Strait of Hormuz.
31:53
Which they didn't do in which was 47 years since the.
31:56
Revolution, which they didn't, but they're they're doing now
31:58
and making money in crypto and in UN, which is the Chinese
32:01
currency to avoid sanctions. But once you have done this,
32:05
what about other straits? Now you've got the Bab al
32:09
Mandap, which you mentioned. The Houthis have not been
32:11
brought into play yet, but they can come in at any moment.
32:14
What about the Strait of Malacca?
32:15
What about the South China Sea where the Chinese have been
32:20
building islands so that man made islands so that they can
32:24
claim that this is their territorial water as opposed to
32:27
international water in order to control shipping through there.
32:30
So a lot of, you know, maritime experts are extremely worried
32:35
about the precedent this. Channel.
32:37
What about the channel? There you are.
32:39
But so it, it sort of takes me back.
32:41
So OK, I'm now going to an indicator back in time if I'm
32:45
allowed. So I'm thinking about Barbary
32:47
pirates. You know, the Barbary Pirates.
32:50
1807. That was the end of the war,
32:52
which the Americans fought because they wouldn't pay the
32:55
tribute to the Barbary pirates that the that was the European.
32:58
War they fought, wasn't it? Yeah, which the Europeans would
33:01
pay. But back previously the
33:03
Europeans had paid a toll to the Barbary pirates so that they
33:09
would not seize their ships and take the people for the for the
33:12
slave trade. So this is my question to you 2
33:15
literary gentlemen. Who was the 16th century
33:19
European writer who was taken prisoner by the Barbary pirates?
33:27
Writer. Oh, we don't.
33:28
Know. Give us, give us another hint,
33:30
nationality. No, that's too easy.
33:33
It was. It was Miguel de Cervantes, the
33:36
writer of Don Quixote, Don Quicksort, as people call it in
33:39
this country. He was held for five years by
33:41
Barbary pirates and pirates. And that is why he was always
33:45
obsessed with madness, because he went mad and with
33:48
incarceration. Now, you could say that the
33:51
person who is tilting at windmills now is Donald Trump,
33:54
who is forever seeing enemies where there aren't always
33:56
enemies, NATO, for example. But what I'm really talking
34:00
about here is that the law of the sea, you had this new
34:04
maritime agreement that came in in 1982, which established that
34:10
the territorial waters extended further, not 3 nautical Mars,
34:14
but 12 nautical miles. But yet you had a system whereby
34:18
ships had a right of passage. Now that is being challenged by
34:22
the Strait of Hormuz, challenged first by the Iranians and now by
34:26
the Americans. And there is a great danger that
34:29
what that indicates is that this law, this maritime law, that
34:34
this UN Convention will be breached by people all over the
34:39
world and that is going to affect shipping and it's going
34:42
to affect the global trade system.
34:44
Can I just depend a subindicator?
34:45
It's your Uber indicator. Totally right.
34:49
And I think what we've also seen in this war is it's pretty
34:53
apparent the US Navy lacks the ability to open the Strait of
34:58
Hormuz against opposition. And we might see that tested if
35:02
all this breaks down. I don't think we will because so
35:05
far they shield away. It's an extremely difficult
35:09
military challenge. And tell us why it's so
35:11
difficult militarily. Well, because essentially sea
35:15
control is much harder than sea denial.
35:19
Yeah, what the Iranians have been doing and what the
35:21
Americans are now doing doing to them is sea denial.
35:25
Yeah, he's saying we can stop you doing this by dropping some
35:28
mines in by the threat of drone strikes.
35:31
In order to exercise sea control, you have to sail a task
35:34
group through that can deal with mines, drones, submarines,
35:39
aircraft and what are all those different threats?
35:41
In other words, it's a multi billion, a multi billion dollar
35:45
task force of multiple warships that can exert control in a sort
35:49
of bubble as it moves through. And of course, you know, because
35:53
the straight is so narrow, all manner of attacks could be
35:58
coming at them with very little warning.
36:00
And I do think I think you're absolutely right, Lindsay, in
36:04
terms of talking about that thing that was considered an
36:08
absolute kind of axiom of statecraft.
36:10
The freedom of navigation is now very much under question because
36:15
the force everybody looked to around the world as the ultimate
36:18
guarantor of it, the US Navy, Is it really still capable?
36:24
And, and let's end then on the, on the on Winston Churchill.
36:27
You know, Trump is obsessed with Winston Churchill, the bus
36:30
behind him, Kier Steiners, then Winston Churchill.
36:33
And of course, rhetorically, he's absolutely right.
36:36
But Winston Churchill was also the brains behind the Dardanelle
36:39
escapade in the First World War, a disaster where, you know, the
36:43
British Navy thought it could sail through and, you know, and,
36:46
and destroy the Ottoman, you know, empire and whatever.
36:49
And it didn't work because you, you go through these straits and
36:51
you're in trouble. And they're finding out that
36:53
same lesson again. So Britannia doesn't rule the
36:56
waves, and nor do the Americans. Britannia hasn't ruled the waves
37:01
for a very long time, Lindsay, even though you may still be,
37:04
you know, bathed in the Imperial nostalgia, that ship sailed a
37:07
long time ago. Enough shipping analogies.
37:10
That's it. Lindsay Hilsum.
37:11
Mark Urban, thanks very much to both of you.
37:13
As ever, that's it from the forecast indicators.
37:16
Plenty more to come next week.