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Transcript

Market Caution!⚠️Crypto Selloff Update📉 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:16
Speaker 1: Market caution is in order. A lot is happening today.
0:19
Speaker 1: We'll break it down for you. I do want to
0:21
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0:42
Speaker 1: help the channel. Let's go into a couple of points
0:44
Speaker 1: I want to lead off with, and that of course
0:46
Speaker 1: is ready. Let's go into a couple of points. I
0:49
Speaker 1: want to lead off right here, fear and greed on
0:51
Speaker 1: crypto hovering at twenty seven and if you look at
0:55
Speaker 1: this real quickly, we had slipped down to almost well.
1:00
Speaker 1: I was holding it five there for just a day
1:02
Speaker 1: or two, and then we started climbing out. Then right there.
1:05
Speaker 1: We thought there was a little bit of a reprieve
1:07
Speaker 1: around March fifteenth, and of course now bitcoin press with
1:10
Speaker 1: seventy two k at the time. The pullback as we
1:13
Speaker 1: see more and more pressure into the market. And now
1:16
Speaker 1: this is starting to equate into other things, which is
1:19
Speaker 1: the security side, extreme fear right now on the S
1:23
Speaker 1: and P. And this is where I'm getting a little
1:25
Speaker 1: bit more cautious because of what's happening currently with just
1:30
Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred. If you look at
1:33
Speaker 1: securities in general, almost everyone is in a position where
1:36
Speaker 1: they're starting to pull back. And this is kind of
1:39
Speaker 1: the point right here. This is the fifth largest reduction
1:43
Speaker 1: in leverage over the last five years, comparable to twenty
1:45
Speaker 1: twenty two bear market. Remember that, guys, because this is
1:48
Speaker 1: hedge fund leverage that is starting to drop, meaning people
1:52
Speaker 1: are starting to move on to secure assets, whether that's cash, gold,
1:56
Speaker 1: whatever it might be. That we are seeing people exiting
2:00
Speaker 1: the market. And this of course has been built around
2:03
Speaker 1: the very instable nature of how the market is being
2:08
Speaker 1: played other things. I wanted to focus in on this.
2:10
Speaker 1: This is one of the things that is causing the instability.
2:13
Speaker 1: Trump says the US is in serious discussions with a
2:16
Speaker 1: new more reasonable regime, but he's still putting a lot
2:18
Speaker 1: of pressure. This is the kind of thing that is
2:21
Speaker 1: continuing to spook the market. And now the market is
2:24
Speaker 1: not necessarily trying to figure out which way Trump is
2:28
Speaker 1: going to turn, because it's getting to the point where
2:30
Speaker 1: it's almost impossible to understand. This is a clip that
2:33
Speaker 1: goes into a deadline, which is April fifth, that could
2:36
Speaker 1: play into this. Take a look, there is a SAFF
2:39
Speaker 1: and Post deadline that SAFF and Post deadline currently is
2:42
Speaker 1: April six.
2:43
Speaker 2: But in terms of like how this week is shaping up,
2:45
Speaker 2: it's always set to be a case of we have
2:47
Speaker 2: this deadline for US around talks next Monday, So what
2:50
Speaker 2: is the tenor of newsflow that fills that gap? And
2:52
Speaker 2: if you look over the weekend, we've still seen Iran
2:54
Speaker 2: in Israel exchange of missile fires. It's in the rebels
2:57
Speaker 2: ends to the wall now, which is particularly dangerous for
2:59
Speaker 2: you know, potentially Saludi all exports. Bloomberg Intangent says that
3:03
Speaker 2: if they're vulnerable, that can add fifteen to twenty dollars
3:06
Speaker 2: per barrel to Brent. And then you know we're also
3:08
Speaker 2: seeing the additional troop build up by the US. So
3:11
Speaker 2: the ton of newsflow is relatively negative. And yes, we
3:13
Speaker 2: are looking to see how these US around talks developed,
3:16
Speaker 2: but ultimately the negotiating positions are pretty far apart I
3:19
Speaker 2: know it's seen Trump time to interject today to say
3:22
Speaker 2: they're going relatively well, but don't think the market's really
3:24
Speaker 2: kind of buying that at this stage. So all we
3:27
Speaker 2: kind of really seen today is, you know, ues stocks
3:29
Speaker 2: are higher, but that's pretty much what we've seen throughout
3:31
Speaker 2: the conflict. Every Monday, S and P five hundred has
3:33
Speaker 2: closed higher only for it to close a lower at
3:35
Speaker 2: the end of the week. And I don't expect this
3:37
Speaker 2: week to be any different.
3:39
Speaker 1: All right, Well, actually this week looks like it is
3:41
Speaker 1: turning out different because we've already seen a significant amount
3:45
Speaker 1: being wiped off the US stock market just in the
3:47
Speaker 1: last sixty minutes. And again this goes back to the
3:49
Speaker 1: point where the market isn't buying Trump's peace talk idea.
3:53
Speaker 1: And I think they've seen the cycle enough now to
3:57
Speaker 1: understand this is so volatile, it's very difficult to play.
4:00
Speaker 1: And of course this is starting to trend into other things,
4:03
Speaker 1: even to the point where the Iranians were starting to
4:07
Speaker 1: do a little bit of trolling right now in Iran's
4:09
Speaker 1: trading advice to US investors actually worked. They were actually
4:12
Speaker 1: showing the variation of how market manipulations seem to be occurring.
4:17
Speaker 1: You can see it right there all the way from
4:20
Speaker 1: the Friday six pm S and P five hundred falling
4:23
Speaker 1: all through the weekend where the five hundred futures turn green,
4:26
Speaker 1: and then where we are right there on Trump saying
4:29
Speaker 1: great progress on peace talk. So this is the kind
4:32
Speaker 1: of thing that people like to stay away from because
4:34
Speaker 1: I think this are one of the scenarios that play
4:37
Speaker 1: into two things. One is the instability and the market
4:41
Speaker 1: starts to push so much capital on the sidelines that
4:44
Speaker 1: you're really looking at as to which capital area is
4:47
Speaker 1: going to be a potential opportunity in terms of growth,
4:50
Speaker 1: whether that is risk or if that is going to
4:52
Speaker 1: go into metals or if we're going to see it
4:54
Speaker 1: coming back into securities. The other thing that plays into this,
4:58
Speaker 1: this is an interesting one warning this is going back
5:01
Speaker 1: to nineteen twenty six where the S ANDP has seen
5:03
Speaker 1: an average drawdown of eighteen percent in the twelve months
5:07
Speaker 1: before the elections. Now right now we're setting at about
5:09
Speaker 1: nine and a half percent prior to midterms. Could we
5:14
Speaker 1: continue to see more pressure all the way into midterms?
5:17
Speaker 1: Remember we still have the Clarity Act looming in Washington.
5:21
Speaker 1: We have a lot to talk about on that. We've
5:23
Speaker 1: got a video coming out on it as well that
5:25
Speaker 1: may change your mind on clarity. But right there is
5:28
Speaker 1: where we're standing right now on the S and P
5:30
Speaker 1: five five hundred and if you look at that on
5:32
Speaker 1: the SPX, that's the pullback at nine point one four
5:35
Speaker 1: percent literally coming in from the end of January to
5:39
Speaker 1: where we are hosting right now at the end of March.
5:41
Speaker 1: So in a two month period, nine percent down. If
5:45
Speaker 1: we go another two months pulling back at this level,
5:47
Speaker 1: this will be one of the quickest and most violent
5:49
Speaker 1: pullbacks that we've seen in the S ANDP in some time.
5:52
Speaker 1: When you look at the cost of the Iranian war,
5:55
Speaker 1: the track continues to flow, and we are piling up
5:59
Speaker 1: the amount of debt that is going to take to
6:02
Speaker 1: basically Congress to try to go in and offset this
6:05
Speaker 1: gets to be a little bit more concerning if this
6:07
Speaker 1: goes into another two four six weeks, continuing to pile
6:11
Speaker 1: up now thirty five trillions, so other things are thirty
6:15
Speaker 1: five billion, let me do that again beginning at thirty
6:19
Speaker 1: five billion. So other things that you've got to consider
6:22
Speaker 1: is loss of life, what we're going to deal with
6:25
Speaker 1: military assets, how that plays into it. This starts to
6:29
Speaker 1: put a lot of pressure on the economic front here
6:31
Speaker 1: in the US. And now you have this, which is
6:34
Speaker 1: where government officials are actually signaling that Wall Street analysts
6:38
Speaker 1: are weighing the possibility of a two hundred dollars a
6:41
Speaker 1: barrel oil if the strait of hormoes does not open,
6:45
Speaker 1: So two hundred dollars would absolutely break the market, It
6:48
Speaker 1: would break the economy, it would start to change basically
6:53
Speaker 1: your way of life here in the United States. We're
6:55
Speaker 1: already seeing this around the world where they're actually talking
6:58
Speaker 1: about work from home, a lot less fuel and energy
7:00
Speaker 1: available in many of the Asian countries. This is something
7:03
Speaker 1: that is affecting a global population and it's getting more
7:07
Speaker 1: and more dire as we continue to see this going forward.
7:10
Speaker 1: Bitcoin ETF's also seeing another outflow hit two hundred ninety million.
7:15
Speaker 1: This again gets into the whole idea around risk off
7:18
Speaker 1: sentiment is intensifying. Let me know what you guys are
7:20
Speaker 1: doing right now. Is this a position where you're pulling
7:23
Speaker 1: into metals in cash? Is this an area where you're
7:27
Speaker 1: trying to look at dollar cost averaging down and where
7:31
Speaker 1: would you enter bitcoin and eat because those are the
7:34
Speaker 1: two assets that people are looking at right now. One
7:36
Speaker 1: other clip I want to get to, which is Trump's
7:39
Speaker 1: put is it dead or not? Take a look you're s.
7:43
Speaker 3: And P and NASDEK are now on a track for
7:44
Speaker 3: their fifth straight negative week. Steve Lisman says now fifty
7:49
Speaker 3: percent odds of a rate hike this year. Bank of
7:52
Speaker 3: America suggests we think markets are now anticipating a more
7:55
Speaker 3: hawkish fed reaction function and possibly a broader commodity shock step.
8:02
Speaker 3: I mean, the commodity shock already has been rather dramatic.
8:05
Speaker 3: It's the biggest supply disruption ever.
8:07
Speaker 4: Everything that has worked in the past couple of years
8:09
Speaker 4: is not doing well. Tech comm Services mag seven MAC
8:14
Speaker 4: seven is down fifteen.
8:15
Speaker 3: But nothing's doing well.
8:17
Speaker 4: And we're all focused on the stuff that's not working
8:19
Speaker 4: because that's what everybody owns. And I think that you're
8:21
Speaker 4: going to continue to see a lot of pressure in
8:23
Speaker 4: those sectors because people are eventually going to unwind these positions.
8:27
Speaker 4: They haven't hear to date as much because they have
8:30
Speaker 4: such embedded gains over the last many, many years. They
8:32
Speaker 4: don't want to take the taxes.
8:34
Speaker 3: Trump's apparent willingness to de escalate the conflict has kept
8:37
Speaker 3: equity markets afloat so far. The risk is that constant
8:40
Speaker 3: flip flopping and headline fatigue is starting to seriously undermine
8:44
Speaker 3: the efficacy of the Trump put. Now, I don't think
8:47
Speaker 3: anybody believes that the so called Trump put is dead.
8:51
Speaker 3: I still believe that they think it's alive and well
8:53
Speaker 3: and for good reason. But this isn't tariffs. You could
8:56
Speaker 3: make a very tactical bull and you could make a
8:59
Speaker 3: tax bare case in the same way.
9:02
Speaker 1: All right, So you can see there a lot of
9:04
Speaker 1: this is depending on how some of these investors are
9:07
Speaker 1: going to play this market. And she was right the
9:10
Speaker 1: analyst there in terms of the embedded gains that are
9:13
Speaker 1: setting in a lot of these mag seven and I
9:16
Speaker 1: think also to a certain extent, even some of the
9:18
Speaker 1: risk assets out there embedded gains. But the real question is,
9:21
Speaker 1: even though we've seen a lot of bitcoin being sold
9:24
Speaker 1: at the top one hundred k and up, what we're
9:27
Speaker 1: looking at right now might be a situation where we're
9:29
Speaker 1: very few or in a position of profit. If you
9:32
Speaker 1: look at this right here, which is the potential for
9:34
Speaker 1: a FED rate hike. This is starting to climb and
9:37
Speaker 1: up quite a bit right here. When it was ten
9:39
Speaker 1: percent just back in March, and now we're hovering right
9:43
Speaker 1: around twenty two percent. In terms of a potential FED
9:45
Speaker 1: rate hike in twenty twenty six, the Fed is in
9:48
Speaker 1: a really tough spot because of the fact that we
9:50
Speaker 1: will most likely see more inflation starting to push in,
9:54
Speaker 1: even though Powell has been pushing that yes, we can
9:56
Speaker 1: get this under control. Is it a short time inflation?
9:59
Speaker 1: I just don't know. Kevin Warson is going to be
10:01
Speaker 1: taking the head pretty soon, though the Senate is planning
10:04
Speaker 1: a hold of hearing on getting him nominated. This will
10:06
Speaker 1: be the week of April thirteenth, so just next week.
10:09
Speaker 1: This of course plays into rising inflations, tensions with Iran,
10:14
Speaker 1: and of course the expectations for rake cuts. I don't know.
10:18
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a different Kevin
10:20
Speaker 1: Warsh than what Trump has anticipated going into the head
10:24
Speaker 1: of the or the FED position. So going to be interesting.
10:28
Speaker 1: Pale course says we will get inflation back to two percent.
10:32
Speaker 1: I just don't know when the timing here is going
10:35
Speaker 1: to have to push hard into the midterms. You're going
10:39
Speaker 1: to have to have a pullback in the market, you know,
10:41
Speaker 1: from a sense of the wrist side and you're going
10:44
Speaker 1: to have to have cash coming off the side to
10:46
Speaker 1: be able to put inflation back into the canister. And
10:49
Speaker 1: I think this is the hard part that pal is face.
10:52
Speaker 1: Now Powell goes a little bit further. What's this video like?
10:58
Speaker 1: Tension between two fed mandate?
11:00
Speaker 5: Okay, all right?
11:00
Speaker 1: Got it? Is this him? All right? Okay? Ready? Pow
11:07
Speaker 1: goes into a topic around the dual fed mandate and
11:11
Speaker 1: why it is different now than before.
11:13
Speaker 6: Take a look and to me what matters is is
11:17
Speaker 6: it ascent thoughtful? Is it helpful? Does it help? Does
11:20
Speaker 6: it express a point of view? Can can you stand
11:23
Speaker 6: behind it and say, yeah, that's that's very thoughtful and
11:25
Speaker 6: that that kind of thing is not is not bad
11:28
Speaker 6: and it doesn't hurt with communications, you know. I think
11:31
Speaker 6: the situation, like the present situation, where you know, there's
11:35
Speaker 6: sort of downside risk to the labor market which suggests
11:37
Speaker 6: keep rates low, but there's upside risk to inflation which
11:40
Speaker 6: suggests maybe don't keep rates low. You've got tension between
11:43
Speaker 6: the two objectives. And I think to try to expect
11:46
Speaker 6: unanimity at a time like that where it's really quite
11:49
Speaker 6: historically challenging, it would almost be misleading to be really
11:53
Speaker 6: confident in which way that should go. In fact, it's
11:56
Speaker 6: been said that confidence is what you feel before you
12:00
Speaker 6: really understand the problem.
12:03
Speaker 1: Very good point there with what power is saying in
12:06
Speaker 1: terms of confidence, and I think that's where the market
12:08
Speaker 1: is right now, before you understand the real problem. The
12:11
Speaker 1: real problem may lie though in recession feares. You look
12:15
Speaker 1: at it right now. The dip was January sixteenth at
12:18
Speaker 1: twenty two percent. We have climbed out of that back
12:21
Speaker 1: up to a little bit over thirty five percent. And
12:25
Speaker 1: now remember back last year in November we had scares
12:28
Speaker 1: at around forty percent. Forty five percent, the market started
12:31
Speaker 1: to cool down on that. That's the real question. Do
12:34
Speaker 1: we get back into that kind of scenario if the
12:36
Speaker 1: Iranian conflict starts to subside, would that be enough to
12:41
Speaker 1: be able to get it back into position. Could the
12:43
Speaker 1: market pivot enough to be able to push away recession
12:47
Speaker 1: fears going forward, or is it permanently damaged? Because remember
12:51
Speaker 1: there's a supply side risk here for a lot of
12:53
Speaker 1: different industries and commodities that are being hit globally. How
12:57
Speaker 1: long does it take that to recover? And do we
13:00
Speaker 1: see that here in the United States In terms of
13:02
Speaker 1: impact other things we're playing into is what would you
13:06
Speaker 1: go into, what would you look at long term? Eth
13:08
Speaker 1: of course, making big moves right here with the Talics
13:11
Speaker 1: new vision, and that is really built around this statement
13:14
Speaker 1: right here. Both of these facts, for their own separate reasons,
13:17
Speaker 1: means that the original vision of L two's and their
13:20
Speaker 1: role in ethereum are no longer making sense and we
13:23
Speaker 1: need a new path. This is a big deal because
13:25
Speaker 1: it changes the whole L two narrative and it puts
13:29
Speaker 1: a lot into what we've been talking about here for
13:32
Speaker 1: a long time. Is the cornerstone of assets, specially digital assets,
13:36
Speaker 1: being centered around ethereum. And with that, you've got to
13:39
Speaker 1: look at this right here. Tom Lee goes in continues
13:42
Speaker 1: to push another seventy one thousand and eighth in one week.
13:45
Speaker 1: Remember the bottom one hundred K on a purchase from bitmin.
13:51
Speaker 1: Simple to watch, easy to follow. This, of course, is
13:55
Speaker 1: just dollar cost averaging down. As Tom Lee continues to
13:58
Speaker 1: put in, I've got one clip here from mister Wonderful
14:01
Speaker 1: that talks about the assets he's going into because of
14:05
Speaker 1: what's going on. Take a look.
14:07
Speaker 5: You only need to own bitcoin and ethereum and you
14:10
Speaker 5: capture ninety eight percent of the entire crypto market. You
14:14
Speaker 5: don't need anything else. All the rest is poopoo. So
14:19
Speaker 5: the poopoo coins collapsed. I mean it was brutal. Some
14:23
Speaker 5: of them went down eighty ninety percent, and they're never
14:26
Speaker 5: coming back because they're poopoo coins. They have no reason
14:30
Speaker 5: to exist, and there's nobody going to save them, and
14:33
Speaker 5: they have no marketing money to go. Get the ticker
14:36
Speaker 5: the ethereum against every day on every cable network in
14:38
Speaker 5: the world looks at business and bitcoin's Bitcoin. So that's
14:44
Speaker 5: very sobering. People lost a ton of money that they're
14:47
Speaker 5: never going to get back on the poopoo scale. So
14:50
Speaker 5: if you're going to get exposure to crypto, avoid poopoo
14:55
Speaker 5: and just simply buy the two that matter. That's what
14:57
Speaker 5: I did. So I sold twenty seven positions, gone put
15:00
Speaker 5: it into US d C, which you know is giving
15:04
Speaker 5: me a yield to three point nine percent, and just
15:06
Speaker 5: bought more ethereum and Bitcoin. And now it's a very
15:09
Speaker 5: interesting time. Those things have been crushed too.
15:12
Speaker 1: All right, three point nine Yeah, I agree, that's that's
15:14
Speaker 1: a poop poo stable coin. But the point that you
15:17
Speaker 1: guys have I agree, I can get five percent of cracking.
15:22
Speaker 1: What are you talking about? You can get five percent
15:24
Speaker 1: almost anywhere. No, he doesn't. Well, yes, if you DeFi,
15:33
Speaker 1: If you go DeFi, you can get only on coinbase.
15:37
Speaker 1: All right, we won't say poo poo. How about this?
15:40
Speaker 4: Want you would be like money?
15:45
Speaker 1: No, I wouldn't. Uh, he said three point nine. But
15:48
Speaker 1: can we go Look, I want to be over all right. That,
15:52
Speaker 1: of course is Kevin o'lary. Remember Kevin o'lary, big proponent
15:55
Speaker 1: of ft X, an investor of an ft X, and
15:58
Speaker 1: an investor in a lot of different tokens out there.
16:02
Speaker 1: So it's just you know, these are going to be
16:03
Speaker 1: bad moves. I think throughout market cycles people will get
16:07
Speaker 1: more narrative centered in around core assets, and I think
16:11
Speaker 1: that's what you're seeing right now in the risk site.
16:13
Speaker 1: But at some point, when risk starts to elevate and
16:17
Speaker 1: we get back into a position of a market up,
16:20
Speaker 1: everybody's going to be pointing at a whole lot of
16:22
Speaker 1: different old coins, a whole lot of different assets out
16:25
Speaker 1: there that they may not necessarily have been gone into before.
16:28
Speaker 1: Right now, flight to security seems to be the brout
16:31
Speaker 1: we're gonna be covering this, and so much more. We'll
16:33
Speaker 1: see you guys soon.