Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA DFS - UFC 311 | January 16, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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MMA DFS - UFC 311 | January 16, 2025 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Fall systems, clear the lifting.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: USC three eleven fourteen fights, three title fights. Man, this
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: is gonna be a good one, Big Marley, look at
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: this top to bottom, one of the best cards I
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: think are the year, one of the best cards I've seen,
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: skill level, top to bottom, fourteen fights, NFL playoffs going
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: on this weekend. It's gonna be a big one over here.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Shift the nation as he covered, NBA, of course still
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: going on, NHL is still going on, PGA going on,
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: and this down streets this week though, NFL MMA takes
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: main course into it Arena, Los Angeles, California, six pm Eastern.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: I can't wait, Big Marley. How you doing?
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm good looking forward to this one. Hopefully we
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: keep all fourteen fights, not really one, I'd be like, okay,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: losing I guess if we had to lose one, make
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: it one of the first ones. But this will be
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: a sick card just to watch and for DFS. If
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: we can keep all fourteen fights. We got big prizes
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: up top, two title fights, like you mentioned, we got
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: that that Jamal Hill Jerry fight. It's gonna be a banger.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I can't wait for it. And hopefully hopefully we have
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: somebody at least listening to this, if not one of
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: us that ships it.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Absolutely big boy money up top for an NFL slave.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: For sure work with NFL going on pay per view.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: It is a big one fifty k in the five
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: point fifty five. I want to say one hundred and
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: fifty maybe a one hundred. Let me look quick in
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: the in the flagship one hundred, one hundred, twenty bucks.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: Second twenty five dollars, twenty three thousand people twenty five
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: bucks though, so five hundred thousand dollars prize pool. That's nice.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: So it's a little flatter than normal three dollars one
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: is uh forty thousand, thirty nine and some change. So
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: I like that for sure. Hit that forty thousand or
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: ten thousand. The first nice solid contest out there. What's
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: going on? Ad great? All we asked, like bunt subscribe
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: button houses out a ton, maybe a lot of people
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: watch on playback again. Can still hit that like right away?
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Hit that subscribe right away. We appreciate any comments always
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: like looking down forgot who it was. Last week someone
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: told us to do our homework on climb. I shot
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: him a message back. He was really cool about it.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Though clin did get the win, not a first round submission,
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: but always love seeing hot takes down there in the chat.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at it broad slid overview, Big Marley. Ten
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: fights of the fourteen are minus two hundred and above.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: Five of those ten are minus three hundred and above.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: So a lot of heavy favorites on this card. Only
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: two mid tier fights the Year fight, which is definitely
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: an interesting one, and the Kevin Holland fight. Two of
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: those fights are supposed to finish. Those are the only
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: two mid tier fights though Man just like Mainavento islam
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: Rman two of the best light to the two best
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: lightweights in the world in my opinion, skill level for
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: skill level, like that's insane. I think Umar finally getting
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: his chance, but I don't see him giving it up
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: anytime soon. So that's a little sneak peak of my thoughts.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: But yeah, just final or initial thoughts. Game theory wise,
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: with a lot of these big favorites, DFS wise, he
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: stacking it all. Any thoughts on ownership we have nobody
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: projected above fifty percent. I think it's a great card,
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: but initial thoughts before we go fight by.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Fight, Yeah, No, I'm not sure what I'm gonna do
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: yet from a DFS standpoint, I've got a shell that
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: I've made for that, like Iron Man pay per view
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: that they sent out, So I got that in there,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: but I haven't figured it out because I mean I
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: put that one in. I was like, I don't even
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: feel good about this. I feel like there's so many
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: ways I could have built this lineup, So I don't know.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: It might be a one hundred and fifty card. My
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: last week I didn't know what I was gonna do either,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: ended up being a one lineup card, So I don't know.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: To be somewhere from one to one fifty. Who knows. Yeah,
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: I like it overview. I mean really, it's just these
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: title fights. You gotta go heavy on those. I do
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: think that the Hill and Yuri fight probably puts up
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: a big score where you kind of have to go heavy.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Have you on that one too, So it's like those
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: main three fights, you kind of got to donate to
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: the pot and just hope that you hit the right
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: combo with the winners, and then we can kind of
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: mix in all the other fights. But those of the three,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: you kind of have to make it a point to
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: target if you're if you're handbuilding lineups, you kind of
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: have to start clicking on the ones you like there
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: and then plugging in after that. But those three fights
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: are going to be in the majority of my lineups.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: So are you making rules? Like two of those three?
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: Are you making a rule?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I make a rule, But I'll have all of them
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: projected like definitely more point it's per dollar than anyone
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: around them. I just yeah, that makes more.
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I use our projections over here when I
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: throw and when I throw them in and build, and
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: naturally I will definitely, like our projections will have the
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: five run fights they almost always do, especially a Morob fight.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: Both of these a lot of wrestling. That was another
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: broad Slide Overview. I'll get to in a sec. But
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: we'll naturally have them projected higher. But I won't be
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: forcing any fight on this card. I think there's plenty
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: of people in the upper tier that I mean broadside overview.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: Why I think we need one hundred and five plus
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: from these nine k range and maybe more. Three takedowns
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: three takedowns four six six six four four three five
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: three three, Like this is insane. I don't I don't
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: think we've had this like heavy rest. This card of
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: like heavy wrestlers that I can remember, a lot of dagas, dandians.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: A couple of BEABS boys obviously comes into play, but
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: and more fights are expected to finish. So I think
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: we're gonna see a massive, massive score on the winner
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: this week. So let's go fight fight by fight like always, Yeah,
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: what's going on, Nate d Ricardo? Ricardo shipped yesterday or
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: last week ten K or fifteen K small states or
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: high stakes small field stuff. Ricardo in their crush and
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: shout out to you, Kai wins a lot. Appreciate all
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: of you hanging out all right, fight by fight, bottom
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: to the top, like always, we are showing off the stone.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: Let me click that to gear ulenbeck Off talk about
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: one of the ABB's boys taking on Clayton Carpenter. Minus
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: three hundred Uhlan Beckov plus two to fifty is Clayton
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: Carpenter plus two twenty five for Uhlem Beckov inside the
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: distance plus eight fifty Clayton Carpenter. Right away, I see
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: two star, two star not very good. I agree. I
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: think this is a low ownership fight, but still not
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: when I'm really excited about too much. But I mean, uhm,
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: Beckoff still three point seventy to one takedowns per fifteen
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: coming off one hundred and twenty piece. That just shows
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: the upside on this late It is tough making fades,
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: but yeah, break this one down.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one. I feel like you you only
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: get to Ulaan Bekov if you're trying to be different
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: ship solo, because I would much rather go to those
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: title fights Umar or An Islam because if all three win,
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Ulaan becos probably putting up the least amount of points
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: of the three. But I mean, fight wise, I think
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: it's they're both guys are well rounded, and I would
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: say they're primarily grapplers. But in my opinion, ulan Bekov
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: is just a step ahead everywhere. It's like a little
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: bit too much, too soon for Carpenter. In my opinion,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I think Carpenter's pretty good. He is live in this matchup,
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: and I'll probably end up with more Carpenters just so
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: that I can pay up more into the top range,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: get those champions, the other guys in the high nine
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: K range. But I don't feel good about Carpenter even
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: getting his hand raised. I feel like Ulaan Bekov is
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: going to do enough, whether it be through striking or wrestling,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: to win at least two rounds. He possibly could win
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: all three, but eighty nine hundred is a high price
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: tag when you got all these other big scorers on
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: the slate. He had one hundred and twenty in his
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: last fight against Dirden. That's great, but I just don't
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: see that happening again. I think it's a slim chance
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: for that to happen again. But give me all on
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Bekof to win, probably score right around that ten x
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: range is what I'm thinking, and just not making it.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: On the optimal lineup, I will be underweights at will
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: on Beckav. I'm not gonna click on him much. With handbuilds,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I probably fade him, uh, But with twenty or more,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: I'll mix them in just to get a little bit different.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: And then Carpenter's is gonna be one of those guys.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: He fits into lineups and I'm fine with it just
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: if I like the rest of it, because I do
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: want to get you know, a lot of Islam, a
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: lot of al made a lot of Knackamoor, So I'm
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: gonna be mixing in a lot of the scrubs in
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: order to get up there, so he'll be one of them,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna be too much overweight.
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Carpenters might preferred side, even though I'm picking to Gear.
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: I agree with everything you said, just because of the
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: salary base game, like sixteen hundred savings. I like all
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: those guys. There's so many of those guys up top.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: I don't like to too many of these dogs down below.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: Like plus two fifty isn't bad money line relative to
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: this lay talking underdogs, I mean, Carpenter has some wrestling.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: He's got okay striking, as we can see right here.
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: If they're wrestling somehow on the gates itself, maybe a
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: little more volume for Carpenter. A close decision, I mean,
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: not the craziest thing on this lane. I don't like
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: his upside. Benny means a lot of these other dogs
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: if they win. I do think he have more upside.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: So it's it's hard to see Clayton Carpenter out out
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: wrestling to Gear. But I'm not playing dogs for upside
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: this week, Like I'll take seventy seventy five for GPS
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: with what the upper tier gives me, and just with
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: how many big favorites there are so still don't love
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: this fight. I don't love to gear, I don't like
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: Clayton Carpenter. I'll definitely be underweight, and that's how you
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: see it too. Two stars right here, nobody else. No
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: one starts on there, just a couple two stars littered in.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: So one a big Marley least favorite fights, and I agree,
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: let's go going on rio two more sleeps. Oh yeah,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be some fun. We're down her. Sopi taking
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: on Ricky Tertios minus two fifty so Pi plus two
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: to ten is Ricky Tertios plus one forty five for
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: this fight to finish, Sopi plus one ninety five Tertios
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: plus five seventy five inside the distance. This fight was
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: supposed to take place on November ninth. Both fighters did
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: make weight. Tertios then pulled out due to medical reasons
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: or had to pull out due to medical reasons. I
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: guess does that do anything for you? The odds pretty
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: much are the same as before it was a while ago,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: so like, nothing really means anything there. I already wrote
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: up the fight, though I did like SOAPI, but my
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: preferred side now is Ricky Tertio's just literally what I
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: said last what about the last fight. We need dogs
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: on this card, the upper tiers loaded. I mean, look
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: at the price. Ninety three hundred, so Pi ninety two,
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Umar ninety four, Islam sant the t right in between them.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: And again I think you can poke holes in some
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: of Islam and Humar, but it's no doubt those guys
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: have clearly more upside with an extra ten minutes to work.
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: Tertio still, I just have to play him in the fights.
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: Expect to go to the distance four point six to
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: three significant strikes, not bad, like he's always doing something
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: at least most fights he is. I'll be playing some
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: Turtio's for sure. So Pie, I'm curious in your thoughts.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I look at this fight almost exactly like that
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: last one, where I think so Pi gets the win.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: He's the better wrestler. He can put up a big
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: score if he's gonna look to wrestle heavily, because Turkios
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: will accept takedowns, he'll spend time on his back. It's
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: just that he's ninety three hundred dollars and I would
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: rather get all the people priced around him. So I'm
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: just not gonna be able to afford a lot of soapie.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: And then on the other end, I'm fine with Turkios
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: because he's somewhat live in this matchup. He's an awkward fighter,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: he fights with a high pace on the feet. If
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: he can stuff takedowns, I can see him winning the fight.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: And if Turkos wins, I think he is gonna put
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: up a big score. He's put up big scores and
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: its one hundred and twenty and one hundred and fourteen
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: and his two wins so far. I mean he's just
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: loading up on strikes. Even if he's on his back,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: he still can still land a lot of strikes on
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: the ground and start adding up points. So yeah, I'm
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: cool with Turkios at sixty nine hundred, and maybe I
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: prefer him or over Carpenter just for that four hundred
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: bucks if that gets me somewhere else. Yeah, it's really
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: similar to that last fight, where I'm a guessing I
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: end up with more of the underdog just to fit
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: other favorites in my lineups, and then the favorites would
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: just be strictly ownership plays for me.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: One hundred percent agree, very similar that last fight. I
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: do prefer Tertio's to Carpenter, since I think he has
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: more upside, he has slightly better money line, and I
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: do agree, like we've seen Sopi brutal, brutal not going
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: against Olivera, who's been really good since Pete Ricky Simoen,
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: but to year just feels really, really steady where it's
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: hard to have too much of a ceiling against him.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: Tertios you mentioned when he is winning, definitely scoring well,
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: so he'd be my favorite play to start it off.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: Of all four of those, that's probably who I'm most
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: likely to be overweight on sixty to nine hundred price
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: take definitely goes a long way. But again two of
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: your you have three two stars and two of them
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: start off the card, but that don't tune in late
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: because of that, like these might be this is high
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: level fights to kick off the card on a pay
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: per view Taghirol and Becka of Clayton Carpenter, Like, that's
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: a very solid fight night card, So definitely don't tune
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: in late. But DFS wise, you gotta expect a lot
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: of points. It's up easy bets. Appreciate you hanging out,
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: all right, Let's keep it rolling. Big Marley very interested
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: in this one. Because ninety five hundreds a lot. I
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: know your take's probably gonna be a little different than mine,
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: and I might have to reevaluate. So Ridya and Nakamura
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: second biggest favorite on the card minus six hundred taking
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: on wing gaffer of plus four twenty five. This fight's
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: LUs one thirty five to finish Knakamura plus one eighty
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: inside the distance Gaffro plus six hundred. Couple things to
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: note Knakamura open minus four fifty now minus six hundred
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: taking a good bit of money, Nakamura plus one ninety
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: five open or plus one ninety five inside the distance
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: now plus one eighty inside the distance with some money
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: coming in on the under on Knakamura on Knockamura finish,
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: ninety five hundred is a ton more than both the
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: five rounders, a couple other big guys up top that
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: we want. His game log really hasn't been great. He's
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: been more control over like submission finish, so that's what
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: had me hesitating. But three and a half takedown prop
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: or uh it just moved to three actually on the
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: underdog I'm looking at I think three takedowns like he
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: has ten minutes of control time forty significant strikes as
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: his prop that could see one one hundred ninety eight.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's enough on this card. But could
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: daffer of keep getting up Kakamara just keeps dumping them,
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: can we get a finish in this one? Like, you
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: have a lot of stars on him, so I'm curious
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: your thoughts compared to other people in the upper tier.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: I have a lot of stars on him just because
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: I'm confident he gets the win. I like Knockamora. I
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: really like his wrestling. I think he could dominate this
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: fight if he wants to go out there and land takedowns. Yeah,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: that could be the issue is he lands a takedown
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: and then Gaffarrov doesn't get up, and then he just
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: doesn't do enough work on the ground to put up
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: a big score. But I think he could knock out Gafferov.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: I think he could finish him on the ground too
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: with ground and pound. And I think a wrestler like him,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: if he starts to put up a little bit more
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: work on the ground, could put up a really big score.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: So I just am I want to buy stock in
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Knockamore basically every time he fights, I'm interested. Ninety six
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: hundred is a lot though, So that's why I only
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: have to fight at three stars. I'm gonna x out Gaffarrov.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I have no interest in him, but if I can
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: afford Knockama, I want him. I'm not gonna make it
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: a point to get him in my lineups, but I
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: would like to get up to you know, forty fifty
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: if if I could. I don't know if that's going
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: to be possible or not. I have some ways that
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: I'll we'll talk about later that'll help me get there.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: But he's gonna be one of the high upper range
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: guys that I'm trying to click on a lot. When
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I'm handbuilding Himbert tell yeah me give me not more
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: to dominate. I think he finishes.
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: Himber Talbot three hundred different hundred.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Talbot Talbot man. We've never seen ninety nine hundred dollars before. Yeah,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: so that's yeah.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: Knakamura, Okay, Yeah, I'll probably. I mean, I'm with you.
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: I think Knakamura is a complete stud like future Champions,
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: not the craziest thing. He's been wrestling since he was
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: a little kid. Transition to MMA. Hands look good, like
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: everything looks good. I just I was there that last
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: fight and it was just lay and prey. Like Gaffro
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: is a better wrestler than he than the ones he's
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: fought to. Maybe that's better because I think that Kamer
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: is way better and they'll fight up to the level.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: Maybe again, he's gonna keep getting better, but he needs
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: to do something. He gets one hundred. I would add
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: zero percent on a card like this, but he does
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: wrestle plus one eighty inside the distance is good, Like
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: he definitely can have one twenty, which like Fati Kline
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: last week and twenty and below, maybe I shouldn't make
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: that mistake, gets some Nakamura. It's so tough though when
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: we go throughout the top of the top tier, Like
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: finding phase is definitely definitely difficult, but something you gotta
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: do if you're only played a couple teams. Let's keep
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: it rolling to the next fight. Woman's Division Carol Hosta
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: taking on a lean Perez, the most likely fight to
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: go the distance of the card. It's plus three twenty
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: five to finish, minus four fifty to go to the distance.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: Hostas plus three eighty five inside the distance. I lead
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: Perez plus nine hundred. Start with the Host's side. Break
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: down this fight. It's clear that I leave, Perez will
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: get some ownership. Look at that five point three six
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: takedowns per fifteen seventy six hundred. If she wins, she
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: definitely has upside in this one. But Hosa is definitely
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: hard to click at eighty six hundred. However, she throws
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: a lot of volume. I love her calf kicks. She
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: can't spend time on the mats at all, but if
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: she stuffs every takedown, she could be optim on eighty
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: six hundred. What I would say about hers, I don't
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: love leaving tons of money on the table playing Hosa
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: like I don't want to just drop Umar to Hosa
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: and leave six hundred and hope she outscores him like that.
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: But eighty six hundred only little mid tier fights. It
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: can get you on a different build, and she'll be
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: pretty low owned and some leverage. So could she get
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: up one hundred and five this week?
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: I think she could.
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: I think she's the way that I'm looking to get different.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, I always like Perez on DraftKings because if
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Perez wins, it's coming through the ground. She's gonna put
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: up a big score. She's gonna shake that ass afterwards.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: So I like Perez just all around. Carol Rosa, though,
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: is somebody else that I like because she can strike
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: a high volume on the feet, which I really like,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: and then she can make takedowns too if she really wants.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: And eventually Aileen Prez is gonna have early success and
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: slow down and get finished late, and I think Rosa's
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: live to do that. Here. Maybe a third round Rosa
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: prop is something to look at. But yeah, if Rosa
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: can not lose more than like, let's say she drops
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: the first round, it's gonna be tough to be on
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: the optimal lineup. I think she can, especially if she
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: gets a third round finish. But if she wins the
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: second and the third round the car on the cards,
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: she's probably not making the optimal lineup. But if she
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: doesn't lose a round, yeah, I mean, if she doesn't
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: even lose the first round, I feel like the chances
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: of Perez getting finished are gonna go up significantly because
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: it's gonna it's gonna get worse going on from there.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: So sure Rossa wins the first round, she's probably gonna
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: win the second round way worse, and then if it
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: gets to the third, it's gonna be like a ten
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: eight type round if she doesn't finish, in my opinion,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: so I think she could put up one hundred and
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: twenty and break the slate. It's just she's got to
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: in all the rounds to do that, and I think
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Perez probably does when the first round, So maybe another
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: live betting opportunity type thing. But yeah, I'm gonna target
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: both sides of this fight. I'll probably change this to
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: a four star overall, so I'll for sure get more
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: of this fight than I will those first two fights
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: we talked about, and then as a fight, like just
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: in general, I like this fight more than the last
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: fight because I only like one fighter from it. But
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: I might be overweight to both sides of this one.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: I could see either one of them putting up a
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: good score.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: I like it the only red flag I've had in
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: my head. I love Caro Host. I think she's really underrated.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: Again in the calf kick, She'll just keep going to
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: them and they definitely devastate these women. But how did
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: she not finish Pandy Kansa. I mean, Pandy's tough, but
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: she was she had second round like the leg was toe.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: She was piecing her up small octagon and she didn't
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: finish her, but she scored ninety four like that needed
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: to be on this card. She needed that third onund finish.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: But if she did, like I leave pres definitely those down.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: Maybe she's she's not as good as shape, maybe as
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: uh Pannias. Maybe she's just not as tough and she'll quit.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: But Hosta not finishing really really tilts. Just like Thiago
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: Moysts last week. Dude, that leg kick absolutely sat him
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: down in the second round. Trey Acton was fine playing
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: guard no killer instinct by Moses, So host is nasty.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: I think she wins, but man, like we need a finish,
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: so I'm gonna play some. You convinced me to get some.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: I did plan on playing some, but a third round
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: decision or a decision win, I'm not sure it's enough.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Like it felt like the nut outcome for her decision
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: last time. And she's sort of ninety four, which is
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: good for the price, But I'm not trying to get
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: ninety four this week with how many heavy wrestlers there are,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: Like I keep saying, all right, let's keep it rolling
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: to the next fight again, Like Bud subscribe, button House
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: is out a ton speaking heavy wrestler Grant Dawson minus
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: two thirty six taking on Carlos Ferreira plus two to
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: h one minus one fifteen for this fight to finish
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: Grant Dawson plus one sixty Diego Ferrera plus three eighty five.
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: Sign me up for this fight all day long, Real
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: life DFS Grant Dawson, what is he heavy wrestler? Three
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: point sixty five significance strike or takedowns per fifteen when
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: am I talking pretty much the same significant strikes more
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: takedowns than strikes, which shows how wrestling grappling heavy. He
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: is nine k so a little cheaper than Umar, a
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: little cheaper than Islam, but pretty close pricey to him.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: Diego Ferra a live dog, no doubt about that. Has
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: taken money since open Dawson minus three twenty five open
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: now minus two thirty five, almost a whole dollar on
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: Diego Ferrera birthday narrative out there. It is his birthday
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: and fight day for anyone wants that forty years old
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: oldest guy on the card. But man, he showed Rebecca
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: that the age did not matter. He absolutely boxed his
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: ears in. Diego looks nice like he'll get taken down,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: he'll get back up. That's what you want in a
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: fight like this, though, So gimme Dawson as a guy
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: that could get maybe seven takedowns good inside the dis
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: is prop only gets better. Give me Ferreira as a dog.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: If he wins, he can put up a big score.
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: So I like this fight would bout you.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I'm changing into a four right now because, Yeah, Dawson,
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: every time out, he's gonna put up a high pace.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: He's gonna look for a lot of takedown spend as
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: much time on the ground as he can, and he
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: usually puts up a big score when he gets the
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: job done. We had one hundred and fourteen, one hundred
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: and eight ninety one hundred and three. One hundred and
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: twenty three. Eighty nine is his lowest, and at nine K,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: that's a pretty solid floor. I'm cool with that. And
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: I would say that Diego's like one of his biggest
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: weaknesses is being taken down. I mean, he's dangerous on
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: the ground, but not so much off his back. I
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: don't see him like putting up triangle on Dawson here.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: I think if he's on his back he's losing.
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: But for Uh, Diego could win this fight on the feet.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: I think he's a better overall striker. Dawson's live to
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: win a striking match just based on his pace alone,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: like a kind of a Morob striking where if he
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: could just keep moving the entire time and just win
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: based on doubling him up on strikes type of thing.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: I think Diego might be a little bit too good
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: for that. Where if this fight's on the feet, I
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: expect Diego to be winning. Yeah, and Diego could land
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: his own takedowns too, So I'm cool with both sides
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: of this fight. I like Diego as a live dog
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: who I would expect to score decent if he wins,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: he could finish really in any round. And then if
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Dawson wins, I expect eighty nine or more, and we'll
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: probably need more than eighty nine. But if he puts
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: up one of these hundred pluses at nine K, he
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: won't be super owned. I think he's he's live, So yeah,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: I'll be targeting both sides of this fight. And maybe
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: it's another thing where it's just Diego ends up in
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: more lineups so I can get up to that upper range.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: But I really don't care who I have more ownership
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: on in this one.
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I will be leaving lineups like sometimes I
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: force leaving like one hundred and two hundred on the table.
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: I'll be zeroing all lineups. I think there's enough ways
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: to get different, Like I might have a team. I
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: don't know for sure, but that would fade both main events.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: If you zero out of Grant Dawson, that doesn't allow
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: you to get to Umar or Islam, and you do
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: assume they win. But Grant Dawson can put up one
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: twenty like he can outscore them in a vacuum. We'll
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: touch it on this fight later, but it's a rematch.
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: Islam scored seventy three. It was only a three round fight.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: But even if you ran all off two more rounds,
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: like Grant Dawson could outscore Islam straight up. He's put
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: up one. Let's see what his highest is, one fourteen
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: last time outs one twenty three shortly or before that
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: one o eight like all those could outscore him or
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: again two hundred cheaper, four hundred cheaper. If he is
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: your highest priced guy and he's zero and out, that
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: is the way you can get different too. So I
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: definitely be playing grand Dawson Freer live dog. People will
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: play him a little bit ownership down there outside him
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Rob Rob for sure, and then Serukian will definitely get
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: submit some ownership. All those other people. I'm not really
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: worried about it. If you think they win, they're gonna
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: low owe their low own pivot in your lineup. Diego
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Ferrera will be one that I'll be using. Really curious
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: to hear your thoughts on this fight. Very rare do
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: you get an eighty eight hundred, eighty eight hundred dollars fighter,
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: But that's what we have here. Osma Bekov taking on
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: Zach Reese, Becov stepping in for Sidrik Dumas. So Reese
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: was the favorite minus two to fifty. I believe around
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: there over Dumas. Now Bekov when he took this fight
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: five days on five days notice, minus two to fifty favorite,
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: he opened definitely a lot of respect. Now it's minus
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: one ninety two. The only prop I've seen, though I've
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: looked all week, is under one and a half, which
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: is plus one fifty. If you see any props, individual props, anything,
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: let me know. I mean, I want to know what
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: it is. But this is saying they expect it to
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: go over one and a half rounds, probably be favored
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: for round three to start. If round three to starts favored,
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't love the re side like Reese
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: feels ko or bustin early and he's a dog. It's
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: really tough to click that button. But I do think
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: a first round knockout is better than four percent chance,
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: and that is the ownership we have. So if you're
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: playing one to fifty, I'm not saying exum really hard
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: to click in anywhere else though, But Beckoff, it looks
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: like wrestler versus striker a minus one ninety favorite, probably
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: pretty low owned who will be wrestling heavy. As my thought,
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Keny get to some Beckoff, like what are you doing
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: in this one? I really wanted your thoughts.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Uh, yeah, I'm not sure on this one. I didn't
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: even get I've been busy so I haven't had a
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: chance to really watch what's his name, Becov, Yeah, Becoff.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I watched his fight with Dylan Budka Man and Budka
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: sucks ass did and this guy got a split decision
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: win over him, and I was not impressed. I started
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: another fight right before the podcast, but I mean, I
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: had to shut it off early. But I wasn't really
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: impressed with that one either. He did look to wrestle
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: in that one, which I was like, Okay, this guy's
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: name is a v he's not even looking to take
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: down Budka. What's going on here? And he was just
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: put like he had a decent pace on Budka. I
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: think he could win minutes on the feet against Reese here,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: but at eighty eight hundred dollars of striking, decision is
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: not gonna do us any good. So I'm not interested
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: in that. We need Bekov to wrestle heavily and stay
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: in top control and just start laying and punch as
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: while he's on the ground. That's how he could put
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: up a big score. But man, I just wasn't impressed.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: I think Zach Rees would beat the shit out of Butka.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I think Reese is more dangerous than Beckoff. I mean,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: he's had poor competition, but he just looks more skilled.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: In my opinion, he looks more dangerous. So I'm I'm
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: gonna get a little bit of reset Sei, Like at
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: no ownership, I'll get him in my one fifties. Maybe
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: I'll throw him in one or two. Am. I like
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: if I make twenty, but at eighty eight hundred dollars, man,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: he's he's got to have a ceiling score too. And
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: not only does he have to have a ceiling score,
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: He's not even supposed to win the fight. So I'm
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: definitely not gonna be forcing him into lineups. It's gonna
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: be more so all right, the rest of my lineup.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: I really like it's super chucky though. Let's let's throw
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: a Reese lineup in there, but I'm picking Reese to win.
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna end up betting Reese just because Becav
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: lost to Dylan play I mean almost lost to Dylan.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: But I'm fading Beck up now too. My pick was
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: Reese anyway. I just I don't know if I'm playing
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: one to fifty maybe I am. I'm gonna play at
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: least one team in the five fifty five twenty five bucks.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's NFL playoffs. I don't need to go
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: fully broke in one weekend. But it is a great
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: card for sure. But clicking that button with twenty teams
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: or less or even fifty teams are less like there's
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: a lot of combinations with fourteen fights to five rounders
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: to click an Underdog at eighty eight hundred, but you
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: want a solo ship one hundred K like Zach Reese,
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: couldn't go out there get you a first round knockout
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: and no one's looking at it. The thing is, you
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: still need to get perfect in those teams, and it'd
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: be harder for me to get more than like six
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: percent of him, which is overweight. So I don't know.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: I doubt i'd do it at the end of the day.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: But you almost talked me into like liking that side
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: more than Beckov, which I initially didn't. But now I'm
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: just fading in general, I think, and I'm getting some
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: of that ownership to Nakamura obviously different prices, but I
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: am in a place of knack them right now both
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: eighty eight hundred. I think I'll just hope it bus.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: Another thing I want to mention Underdog. I've been starting
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: to look at their takedown props more because that's pretty
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: much the only spot I know that offers it one
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: and a half takedowns only for Beckkov, Like, no, thank you,
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: that's the takedown prop, Like that is not twenty eight
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: significant strikes. That is awful prop.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: So I almost didn't even put six total stars on
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: the two fighters. I almost went two star on both
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: of them for the first time. I was like, I
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: don't want to do that. Yeah, I'll probably end up
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: bexing out Beck just to be honest with you, especially
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: with over one and a half being favored their respect
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: in him one and a half takedowns. Yeah, that's not
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: gonna put up a big score. That's that's planning on
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: him landing a takedown or two, putting up a decent
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: volume on the feet, and I would Betty doesn't even
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: score ten x if that's the case.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: For sure. I mean I'm the feet too, Like I
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: think it's Zach Reese. Look at that five inches in height,
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: five inches in reach like this dude, This dude's pretty good.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: The problem is Zach Reese doesn't look like he has
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: great takedown defense, which is a concern. But yeah, this
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: takedown prop the price, I'm not touching it. I'm fading
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: in twenty and below. And yeah, for sure, Ross if
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: what's going on? First of all, but if this fight
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: was eighty eight hundred and seventy four hundred and Reese
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: was seventy four hundred, he would definitely get some ownership,
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: and I would like that a lot more. All right,
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: let's keep it going. Next fight on the car we have.
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: I just want to make sure I'm not out of order.
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: Jelton all made that taken on Speedback the only heavyweight
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: fight of the night. Minus four thirty Jaelton plus three
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: thirty is Speedback minus three twenty five for this fight
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: to finish almost all the finished the equity in the
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: Jailton side minus two thirty Speedboc plus six hundred. I
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: think it's really simple. Jaelton shoots are very early takedown.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: He gets it, he gets it. He probably eventually mount
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: blah blah blah, eventually takes the back, eventually grabs the neck,
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: sinks in another rear naked choke. I don't think Speedback
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: has anything from his back. I'm not playing him in
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: twenty entry and below at all. If he wins, I
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: do think he scores. I'm gonna take a bet that
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: he does not win. If you're playing a bunch of teams,
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: of course I wouldn't do that, but yeah, I just
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: don't see him beating Jelton Almeida. Almeida is too fast
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: when he is on top or he is grappling. He's
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: just a monster. Ty Burrow can took that, or took
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: down Speedbock. So yeah, I'm good.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, al made It is gonna be one of my
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: favorite players on the card. He's gonna be too strong
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: for Spivac. I think he's gonna go out there, take
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: him down, beat him up on the ground. Spivak's not
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: gonna like it. It probably turn around, give up his
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: back and either get pounded out or choked out. That's
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: how I see the fight going down first round finish
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: for al Meda. I'll only get to Spivac with one
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty as a hedge to being overweight to
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: a chalky Almeta. Yeah, I plan on having like more
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: than sixty percent al Meda hopefully, and then Spivac would
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: his path to victory would be kind of stuffing early takedowns,
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: I would think, or getting an early takedown of his own,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: Like if he got on top of Almeida, I feel
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: like I made it could pee in some big trouble.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: But how's he going to get on top of Almeida
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: while he's while he's fresh. I just don't see that happen.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: And I don't know that this fight's even gonna go
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: long enough for Almeda not to be fresh. So yeah,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: give me Almda to just be a beast.
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I thought the best path to Victor
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: would be Stebak on top his decision prop and it's
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: very very lightly but it's still better than its Ko
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: and his submission prop. Does that? Does that surprise you
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: at all? Like his most likely path is to win
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: my decision?
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: I would think it'd be he gets on top and
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: like he gives Jylton an elbow he doesn't like, or
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: something like that. It's speedbox is too big, But I mean,
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: I'm not picking them.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: It's hard to make you're winning at all, so I can't.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: I can't set odds on that. I don't know.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's why I'm fading in twenty below. But it's
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: plus seven hundred plus seven fifty plus seven seventy five,
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: so it's all relatively close. But I found that pretty interesting.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: All right, Let's keep it rolling halfway in the card
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: and we get the biggest favorite, minus eleven hundred Payton
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: Talbots also the highest price we've ever seen, ninety nine hundred,
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: taking on Ryonti Barcelos plus seven to twenty five on
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: the way back minus twenty five for this fight to
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: finish Talbot minus two forty inside the distance Barcellos plus
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: seven to seventy five. I have Talbot is underweight. I
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: just don't know how I can jam them in on
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: a card like get overweight on a card I don't
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: like many dogs. When you do play Talbot, it feels
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: very likely that you'll have at least one of Morob
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: or Armaan. He's still going to be low enough owned.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: But then it feels like you'll have one of the
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Jamal Hill Hiller Yeerie fight, maybe one of Holland de
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Ridter like. It still feels like you gets to it
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: a pretty narrow build and he is way up there
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: without wrestling. Upside feels like a minute or bus kind of.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, he has good volume, he can definitely do it,
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: and then he did last fight. But yeah, he is
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: way up there on a slate where we have a
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: lot of other fighters are cheaper with similar upside just
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: due to wrestling. Even in a decision, Yeah, value is
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: not great on this one. I'm not fading him, but
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: it is tough for me to get to that ninety
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: nine hundred price dag So what do you see?
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, just a ninety nine hunder to scare me away.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Barcello's really good, talented fighter, good everywhere. A couple of
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: years ago, I thought he was a title contender, but
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: now he's clearly falling off, and Talbot is the guy
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: that the UFC is trying to showcase Talbot, it looks Yeah,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: he looks amazing. I was saying, I think in his
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: first fight that like, I've heard a lot of people
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: say this kid's a future champion, but I don't see it.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: Now I can see it, like he's made a lot
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: of money. I got him against Cameron Simon shout out
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: at he tweeted it too, and then I was like, yeah,
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: I gotta hop on.
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: But he dominated. That was so impressive. That's that's why
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: I'm so impressed. That was that fight. But yeah, it's
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: just ninety He has to have a ceiling performance. Even
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: if he does, he could get outscored by other people.
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: So probably only get him to him and like my
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: armand and a rob lineups, but that's when everyone else
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: is getting to him too, So I'm not getting different
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: from the field. So I don't know. I'm I'm trying
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: to get more about made Uh. That's why I like
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: knock himoor too. Let me even save that money and
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: put knock amoora that can get me different. So I
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: don't know what I'm gonna do with Talbot. To be
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: honest with you, I'm fine with anywhere from ten to
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: sixty percent. If if I could afford sixty percent, I'd
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: be okay with that. But I just don't think he's
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: gonna score one hundred and thirty points again and pay
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: enough to pay off a ninety nine hundred dollars price tag.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: But he should win, probably finish his home. I think
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: he gets a knockout.
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean we could get a Jacoby Smith performance.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: So last week, what did he finish with? One oh five?
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: You gotta knockout in a minute thirteen seconds? Like great performance,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: like you did everything you could, fortunately missed the one
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: minute bonus, which means so much by thirteen seconds as
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: someone that wins a heavy wrestling based or scramble based
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: decision like they outscore you. That's like, that's the there's
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: so much variance in dfs. Part of the variance is
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: scoring like you gotta get lucky. He judges. You gotta
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: be on the right side sometimes. I mean a lot
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: of variance in this sport, but you gotta embrace the
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: variance for sure. The thing I last thing I'll say,
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: just how they can't be that high home like I'm
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: my guess is like low twenties. Still I don't even
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: know if I'll have low twenties. Like it's really hard
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: to click that ninety nine hundred price tag, especially with
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: two big favorites Islam ninety four, UMAR ninety two with
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: all the wrestling upside there. So yeah, Opper two is
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: absolutely stacked.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: I started his ownership right around twenty. But then the
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: man minus twelve hundred. It's like people just giving like
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: a free win, let me take my points and move on.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: They're not really thinking let me win first out of
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: thirty thousand people. There's like, let me get as many
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: points i can. Here's one hundred and ten. I'll take
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: that free. So I feel like he's just gonna naturally
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: end up a little higher than I would think he should.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: But I could be wrong.
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: No, that may make sense because Morob is a very
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: easy clip for people, like very easy. Just look at
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: the game log. His price tag. I'm not sure ans
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: as easy for people like Islamus doesn't lose, definitely gonna
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: get ownership. But yeah, I think the Peyton talbot of his,
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: like just say his twenty five percent own I think
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: probably over half would be with Morob. So just something
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: out there. Yeah, all right, keep it rolling. Next fight
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: on the card. All these fights are so good. Look
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: at this fight. We have minus three twenty five minus
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: two hundred, minus one forty five minus two seventy five.
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: Both title fights actually the ones favorite to go at
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: the distance, and you know that those will be good. So,
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: oh yeah, it's gonna be good. We got boged on
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: at gust Gov taking on Billy Alikhana minus three thirty
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: five at Guskov plus two seventy five Elkana minus three
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: twenty five for this fight to finish, gust Gov minus
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: one seventy five ala Khana plus four hundred to break
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: this fight down. How does Guskov rank amongst those others
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: nine k others in the nine K range?
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: Oh? Yes, earlier I was saying I want to buy
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: stock in Nakamura. I'll try in a short gust Gov man,
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: I just I am not a believer in goose Gov.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: If he's got power, he's wild. He can get early
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: first round knockouts, and when he does, he's gonna score well.
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: But if he doesn't get a first round knockout, he's
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: gonna slow down as the fight moves on. He's not
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: gonna have high volume anyways. He's not looking to wrestle.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's that athletic, So I'm just not
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: gonna get any Guskov. That's how I plan on going
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: about this. I'll get all these other guys I like more.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: I could see me getting burned by that, but I
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: would just rather take my chances on all those other
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: guys we already talked about, and then other people we
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: still haven't talked about yet. And I'm picking Billy to
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: win this fight. I think Billy looks more talented as
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: a striker. I think volume wise, it could be close,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: and maybe Billy, even on short notice, I feel like
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: three rounds probably favors him in this matchup. I think
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: he is dangerous on the feet, could win with a
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: TKO and break the slate, or he could win a
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: decision here and just not score well. But he puts
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: up a win as I'm cheap, so I'm interested. I'll
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: be overweight to Billy and fading gusk Gov with twenty
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: or less for sure, not exiting him out with one
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty, but I'll have him priced below all
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: these other people, And if it just still gets him
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: into lineups, then I'm fine with it. But I would
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: imagine I have like ten percent or less of gust Gov.
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: I like to take. I love the take. I mean
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: he did. The problem I keep coming back to, is
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: is Ryan Span better than Ala Khana?
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: Like I want to say yes, probably, yeah, But.
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: You can't just play mma math like I know. That's
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: just the one thing I keep coming back to, Like
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: I think Ryan SPAN's actually solid. Think of Ryan Span
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: like on what day is he really good? And what
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: day is he not really good? But yes, gus Goff
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: did beat Ryan Span, and I do think he's better
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: than this guy, which is like, man, eventually Gusco might
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: find the chin, but even if he does again, he's
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: surrounded by a whole bunch of wrestlers like do uh
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: before we get to the next fight, do you prefer
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Soapi ulin Bekov? Like Grant Dawson? How do you look
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: at them? Compared to who's Gov?
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all similar. Yeah, I don't know. I probably like
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: them more because I'm picking them to win in their wrestlers,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: but Billy taking the fight on short notice. Guskov, if
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: he's gonna win, it's the first round knock Like if
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: he wins, Unbekov wins and Sopaj wins and their like
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: most impressive wins, then it's gus. Gov probably outscores them
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: just with the first round knockout, and maybe it's in
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: the first sixty seconds. That's the only way he like
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: breaks the slate. But he could get a first round
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: knockout and not make the optimal line up like you
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: just talked about with Smith. So I'll be under wage
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: to all of them and then just go heavy on
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: everybody else.
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: Makes sense. He's not the highest volumes can see three
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: point one three. He does have one of the best
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: first round props on the slate though, plus one seventy
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: five inside the distance, but still not favored to finish.
• 43:00
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• 43:03
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• 43:06
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  Speaker 2: be up tomorrow. Projections, ownership, fight rankings, everything as always.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: A couple fights left. Can't wait again. These next two
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: supposed to finish, Kevin Holland and our next three. Excuse me,
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Kevin Holland, Rainer de Ridder. The closest price line fight
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: on the card minus sixteen right now is de Ritter
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: bet Online minus one ozh four is Kevin Holland minus
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: two hundred for this fight to finish, Holland plus one
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: thirty to Ridder plus two twenty five seems like a
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: great fight to target. Feels very striker versus wrestler grappler.
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: To me, the Ridder was getting outstruck by GM three.
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: I test wise, I think this should be Kevin Holland
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: all day. They're both of their lives are on the line.
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: They're in the street fight. You need to win this.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: You need to win this fight Kevin Holland. The problem is,
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: like he cares about putting on a show. It feels
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: like half the time more than like what's his best,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: best path to victory. If he thinks he can like
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: play cool on trying to stuff a takedown or like
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: throw up guard and stuff, he could get dominated very
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: easily if he, to the life of it, had to
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: stand on his feet or get up, et cetera. I mean,
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: how de Ridder looked against GM three was not good.
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: The problem is, with all that being said, I'm picking
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: to Ridder because I just it's so hard for me
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: to bet on Holland. And I do prefer to Ridder
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: in DFS because when he gets that full ceiling. It
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: feels like it's multiple takedowns, submission upside control time, like
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: he has all the ground upside. It's easier to scrore
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: on the ground than the feet. But man, I mean,
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: Kevin Holland is a better inside the distance prop plus
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: one thirty versus plus two to twenty five clear striking advantage.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: I'm really curious to hear your take of this one.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: Good fight though, and then do you like this fight
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: or the hill YEARI fight in the mid tier.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Hill Ary for sure, but on this one, I have
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: more of a side. I'm gonna be overweight on the
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: ridder side, and I'm guess an underweight to Holland. I
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: think my ownership's probably off on the I'm gonna adjust
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: this fight because I just feel like the fight as
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: a whole should be more owned than I have it.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: But I ended up where I was because of everybody
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: else on this damn card. It's kind of it's it's
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: hard to get there. I feel like, even though it's
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: in the mid range, it's more of a Star Scrubs
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: type of card, it feels like. But Holland, Yeah, he's
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: a better striker in this one. He's good on the
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: ground too, But the Ritter is the one who I
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: think should have the grappling matchup, and I mean the
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: grappling edge in this matchup. And Holland's a guy who
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: will kind of accept takedowns and he can get back
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: to his feet or get reversals, but that could just
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: lead to more takedowns. And he's also fine spending time
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: on his back. I mean, how much time did for
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: Tory spend just with on top of Holland in Yeah,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: I mean it was a different weight class similar Yeah, yeah, true.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: But also on the Holland side, like he damn near
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: could have been on a four fight losing streak here.
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: He lost to j DM, he looked bad against Michael Page,
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: he looked like he was getting knocked out by Ola
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: Jay Chick before he broke his arm, and now he's
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: coming off TKO loss to Delieds A two. So who's
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: telling where his head's at or where it is ever
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: at really, But I'm just gonna be more so on
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: on the Deriverter side. I expected him to be a
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: small favorite, like a minus one fifty, minus one sixty
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: type of favorite in this one, So I'll be overweight there.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: I think he does put up a pretty decent score
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: at seventy nine hundred dollars too, so I like him.
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: If Holland wins, he's gonna have to mix in some
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: reversals or takedowns. Two of my opinion. I don't think
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: a striking match will be enough for him as a
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: favorite at a eighty three hundred when there's other big
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: time scorers on this card. So I'll be underweight to Holland,
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: but not going to x him out because he is
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: like he of course he's live in the matchup. It's
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: a fucking pick on line. But I just I feel
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: like he should be the underdog in this matchup. I
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: I feel like I should say that he is live
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: because he should be the underdog.
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do know what you're saying. And to make
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: it even, I guess wilder to you. Holland opened the
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: favor minus one sixty the rider plus one forty, and
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: it's kept getting money. I agree. I really do think
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: it's it was just the rittter looked that bad to me,
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: But this like feels like the perfect matchup for him,
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: and he still did win. D N three was just
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: completely gased, but Holland's a big name, like it feels
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: like the UFC knows what he's doing, knows what they're doing,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: but at the end of the day, they can still
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: want to riddle. And if Kevin Holland keeps it on
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: the feet and gets that jab go and I think
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: he's definitely gonna piece up to ridder Holland around one
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: plus three seventy five to Riddter plus five fifty. I'm
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: on the Deritor side too, mainly just because when he
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: does get there the full ceiling, it is a lot
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: bigger than Hollind's, it does feel like, and the four
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: hundred savings definitely does help as well. I do think
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: de Riddard though, comes in decently popular on this late
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: and Holland a decent pit lower own and is the
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: leverage keep her own. Four fights left banged right here
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: closely lined as well. We're not to moy Kano taking
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: on but Neil Derius minus one fifty five way Kano
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: plus one thirty five Deuge minus won forty for this
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: fight to finish. Way Kano plus one sixty five inside
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: the distance Darius plus two sixty five take this fight away.
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, both guys are are solid. I'm looking forward to
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: this one. From a fan aspect, I think it'd be
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: a fun striking match. I think it'd be an awesome
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: grappling match. Uh But I mean, I'm just I'm a
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: movie conno guy. I love Moui Kano. I think he
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: is the better point fighter. On the feet. I think
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: he is well shit, I mean, I want to say
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: more durable, but there was a time in his career
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: where durability was an issue, So I don't.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: Really know both of them out plenty for sure.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and then I just think he's a little little
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: slicker on the ground too. So I do favorite Mui Kano.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: And when I looked at this fight, he was like
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: minus two forty five or something like that. Now he's
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: minus one sixty two. I mean I like that line
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: a lot better, like if I was gonna bet him,
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: of course, But that also makes me like Derry Hush too.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: Darry USh is good everywhere. It wouldn't shock me to
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: see him win by any method in this fight, and
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: he's cheap. He could put up a big score, So
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: I like Dry Hush. I'm fine with either side of
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: this fight, and movie Kano could be one of those
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: that we've already talked about. He's just up in that
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: range where I, like everybody else, I could end up
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: underweight for that reason, and then the Derry Jush live
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: dog could put up a big score gets me up
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: to all the guys that I want to get to.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: So he just makes sense. I originally liked Moviekana Moore,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: but this line movement may I'm kind of taking that
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: out of your book. Maybe that makes me like dery
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: USh a little bit more. I don't know what the
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: hell I'm gonna do with this one, but I think
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a fun fight.
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's there's been a lot of line movement open
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: minus two ten, but like January sixth, it was still
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: minus two fifteen. A lot of this week January tenth,
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: less than a week ago, is minus two thirty. Slowly
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: but surely, money's been on dare Us, which does make
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: me preferred deir Us with the twelve hundred savings as
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: a very live dog who's gonna get some ownership. But
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: like Morob Arman, these guys have to get a lot
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: of ownership, so it has to be in check. But
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: it also does make me like m kano a lot,
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: because I mean, I just like mccanno a lot period,
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: like you're saying, and he's really dangerous, like one point
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: eighty seven takedowns per fifteen A good grappler, he does
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: have power. Both guys have been knocked up in no.
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: Over half of their fights. So like this fight's minus
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: one forty to finish two. It did open minus one
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: seventy non minus one forty, which I don't love. But
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: Wakano has to be low o a eighty seven hundred
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: as this small of a money line. Both guys have
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: a solid inside the distance prop for the price, Darius
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: is really easy to make the case for at seventy
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: five hundred mi. Kano at that price, I'll overspend for him,
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: and like I prefer him to Karajosa in terms of
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: a ceiling, what would you say, uh, one hundred dollars
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: price difference.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Carol Hosa actually host I think if they both put it, yeah,
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: for sure, the highest score they can I think Hosa, yeah, yeah.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: I mean the highest score maybe because I mean she
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: really could beat him down. But wait, Kano, let me
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: see he scored uh one o eight one fifteen ninety
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: seven ninety five ninety seven one, six, one two, one
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: point fifteen. Yeah, he's got some scores in there. Again,
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: I don't love leaving five hundred plus for Umar, seven
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: hundred for Islam, Like I don't think you need to
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: on this card. You can leave one hundred and two
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: hundred or whatever in the Waite Kano lineup. So yeah,
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: I think had his ownership some leverage from dari Use too.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna have a good amount of that fight. Any
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: final thoughts.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd say I'm also on the Hosta side of
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: that argument because of like there's no nowhere that movie.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: Kano is a lot better than Darius, Like Darius is
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: great everywhere whereas Hosa should kick the shit out of
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: Perez on the feet, especially in the later round. She
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: should have a big edge where. I just don't see
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: that being the case for Muikano anywhere. I just think
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: he is maybe a little better everywhere.
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, makes a lot of sense for sure. I just
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: the reason I said way Kano was the ground game,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: Like that could be reversals, takedown scrambles, top position, right,
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: I don't see hosts of Wrestling bally in that one,
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: because that's what Alon pres wants.
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: I feel like, get a takedown and just go go
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: hand with with ground strikes and have a big score
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: that way. Where I don't think movie Kano is putting
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: up like two hundred strikes at all. I don't know
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: that could be. I think that they're both decent ownership
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: type of plays actually, especially if you're trying to avoid
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: those the champions or I guess champion ship fight favorites,
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: and then the highest of the nine k range, all
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: those guys will get somesh some uh some ownership.
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, for sure. Those two will be pretty low
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: on though in a range that you just can't get
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: too much.
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: And I like them.
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: We both made a case for him and Hopsa does
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: have two hundred plus significant strikes type stuff upside though,
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: I like it. Three fights left man, This fight absolutely
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: insane again one of the two fights in the mid tier.
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: Big Marley already hits at how much he likes it.
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: All three fights and five stars for Big Marley, Sweet Dreams.
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: Jamal Hill minus one forty taking on Nuri Prashka plus
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: one twenty minus two seventy five for this fight. To
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: finish year, he plus one thirty inside a distance, Hill
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: plus one sixty five This fight open minus one thirty
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: Hill got all the way to plus one ten Jamal
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: Hill slowly, but Shirley or the Hods stayed there this
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: week decent sized bet looks like a week ago on
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: Jamal Hill and then from there minus one oh five
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: January second minus one sixteen got down to minus one
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: thirteen a couple of days ago. Now a decent amount
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: of money on Jamal Hill. For me to keep it
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: short and sweet, I have no clue. I think these
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: who are going to stand and bang of the day
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: a little bias on my side. I'm a big Jamal
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: Hill guy. In the fact of I just think he's
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: a really he has that he has something in those
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: hands where when he touches you guys do go down.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: Man years an absolute monster though, like I totally get it.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: I'm at these odds, it feels a lot more pick
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: them ish. I picked Jamal Hill when it was minus
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: one ton a piece. Touch him up University like he's
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: got some pause on him. I think he knocks out
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: Eerie at some point, but at these odds, and if
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: it leads to ownership gap Eerie might be the right play.
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know what are your thoughts on it. He'll
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: he'll for me. But it's a really good fight. I'm
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: surprised it's even this wide.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I did the fight too when it's one ten apiece,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: and I said, I don't even have a lien in
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: the fight. My lien is that someone's getting knocked out.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: So for DFS purposes, I think that's gonna be a
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: good thing. As as a mid range, I think it's
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: probably a first round knockout in my opinion. I mean,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: could be second round, and second round could definitely get
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: us there, But a first round knockout for either guy,
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: I think you're on the optimal lineup. So I'm gonna
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: target it heavily on both sides. I picked Hill as
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: my winner, but if I looked at it now, that
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: plus money would have had me pick Yerie either way,
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: just plus next to either side would have had me
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: pick that person. But I picked Hill just because he's
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: the more athletic striker, the higher volume guy, yeary, more powerful,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: more awkward. But just I say it every time, he's
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: just defensively responsible and Hill is a guy who who
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: can just throw straight punches and really really go against
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: that and make him pay for it. So Hill's going
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: to be my pick. I'll have more of him. The
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: line movement for DFS purposes does make me like him
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: a little bit more. Yeah, I really don't care if
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: I need that two hundred dollars zero issue dropping my hillline.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: That's the first thing I'm gonna do if I'm looking
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: for money, Like, all right, well let's get Hill out
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: of here. Yeary in.
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: What can I do there?
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: But I'll just target this fight heavily. I want both
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: of to be in thirty or more percent of my lineups.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: Don't have preferences. Maybe I end up with YEARI just
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: because there's more lineups you can make with an eight
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars lineup an eight thousand dollars fighter than you
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: can eighty two. But I just don't care. I think
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: we're gonna see a knockout either way. I don't like
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: that they're playing like buddy buddy, I guess at the hotel,
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: like they're not having any beef. I would love some
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: beef in this fight.
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: You know, Yari fights the same way. He's gonna get
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: his Samurai, He's gonna lock in. Yeah.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the Yuri side of it is really what makes
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: you gotta almost go all in because he's he's just
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: so wild that it's gonna either help him getting that
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: knockout or it's gonna help Hill by him just being
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: too crazy and he gets knocked out. But yeah, I
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: think we're getting a hundred plus points from the winner.
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Who throws more like kids, Does anyone chop the legs
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: early and often? Because I would bet that side for
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: decent bit if I knew that, because both guysussible successible,
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: sub suscessible successible successible, you.
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: Know what I'm trying to say, even trying to say,
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: you know, I.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: Think there's aptible in there too, But yeah, which which
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: guy's gonna throw more light cakes? If any will be
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: a factor.
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: I feel like early enough to where like it won't
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: come into play like someone's legs not gonna They're not
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: gonna have dead leg It's just gonna be that one
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: of them is sleeping. Uh if this does play out.
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: Because Racket had years like Toast, I don't know rackets
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: she had years like Toast, but I guess he kept
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: walking through it so i'd be more word. I guess
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: if if year he really did it, susceptible. Yeah, I
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: got enough. Thanks, round thumbs up, y'all. We appreciate that
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: as well. Susceptible. Now, I got it. Two fights left.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: Umar islam Ikbib's gonna be busy I assume will be
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: into Gear's corner earlier as well. Habib will be a busy,
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: busy man. All of them favorites, though, would be probably
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: pretty good for me if they if Babib did sweep it.
• 58:56
  Speaker 2: Curious to hear your thoughts, though, I know you're gonna
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: be playing some of these dogs. Maga mat Off minus
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: two eighty four Marob Dvalis plus two forty four plus
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: one seventy five for this fight to finish. Umar plus
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: two h five Morob plus eight hundred gonna throw to
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: you with a couple questions. First, do you prefer this
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: fight or the main event? If having to pick, I
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: would pick this fight mainly just because Morob is a
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: psycho can shoot a million takedowns, so I'll pick him
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: to force the fight, whereas that one, maybe you can
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: stand at distance a little more. And then any thoughts.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: I know people will be asking on Rob's leg I
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: guess like not really DFS wise, but if it alters
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: this performance, are you worried about that? At all then
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: break down this fight in DFS.
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd say I like this fight more just from
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: the Morab aggression. That should help Umar to so definitely
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: this fight instead of the other. Yeah. The leg thing,
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: I haven't really I just saw in Discord right before.
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: I only saw that picture. I can't tell what that.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: I mean. It looks like he fell on concrete in
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: my opinion, like, it doesn't look like Staff. It looks
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: like he's scraped up his leg nice and good and
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: it's healing.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: But I'm not worried about It's like mob. The last
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: thing he's gonna worry about his.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: Leg, Well, I would worry about it was Staff. I
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: would worry about it.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: Antibiotics. Yeah, yeah, it doesn't look like it doesn't look
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: like that as much. And then he sta going into
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: Uh wasn't that him going into the whole alley fight
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: and that's why the lion dropped?
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah, And I think I picked O'Malley like that.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: That switched it for me to.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: Like screw that did not struggle at all with it.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but I'm picking here. I think that the line
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: is disrespectful. Morob can put up a pace that just
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: no nobody can match. Mora's pace. I think just wrestling alone,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: Umar is the better wrestler, but Morob can just non
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: stop chain wrestle to where I could see Morob landing
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: more takedowns than Umar. And on the feet, Umar is
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: the better striker, but Yan is a better striker than
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: Morob too. And Jan had no success on the features
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: because he had he never had a chance to get off,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: and I think Morob can do that same thing here
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: on the feet to Umar. It could lead to takedowns
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: on either side. But in my opinion, the line is disrespectful,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: So give me the underdog. If Morob wins, he's gonna
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: blow seven K out of the water for sure. He
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: could put up one hundred and twenty. So yeah, I'm
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of Morob. He's my favorite underdog
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: on the card. I'll have the most of him. But
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: I'm picking Serukian too, so I'll have a lot of
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: both them.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: I love it.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping for a bad night for Kabeb.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm now three Umar. I'm definitely on Umar side
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: the line, I get it for sure. I've just been
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: saying there's no way on every betting against this guy,
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: and I do think Corey Sandhagen is really legit. I
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: would love to see Corey Sanhagen and Morob hoping Umar
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: wins and like run that like I was impressed with
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: that with that fight for sure. You're totally right though,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: Like at the end of the day, nobody knows the
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: Normaga met off all this. No one knows what it
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: feels like stf fifty takedowns or have a guy literally
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: running you like that Peter jan fight was absolutely insane.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: You can't draw up and like train, I guess for
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: a matchup like Morob, I mean, if anyone can draw
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: it up, it's Abib, Like they're probably throwing them a
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: million bodies. I'm picking Umar because, like his wrestling is
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: that good. I think I think it can stifle Morobs
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: on the feet. I think he's gonna catch Morob with
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: something when Morob is shooting in or something and Umar
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: is gonna hurt him. Both guys on Underdog have taked
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: on props to two and a half, which is interesting though,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: and that is why I'm saying, like I'm not gonna
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: have one hundred percent of this fight. At least I'm
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: not gonna force it because if I think Umar wins,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: I means he's stuffing Morob takedowns, keeping it at range.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: The fight is expected to go the distance, Umar winning
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: a decision, and like, if he takes the bat, can
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: he control Morob? Maybe? Like I think Umar has solid control.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: I do think this fight's optimal, more than likely, but
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: two and a half takedown prop on both sides expected
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: to go decision. With Umar's price tag, he scores one
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: oh seven. That might not be enough on a card
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: like this. So that's the reason I'm not going all in.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely playing some rock because when he does win,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: like he's just gonna break the slate for sure. But
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: I'm on umar side as a pick. I will say
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: the odds I feel like, yeah, I mean they've gone
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: everywhere open minus two hundred, got all the way down
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: to minus three forty in the beginning of this week,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: now back to minus two eighty four. So money coming
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: in on the Morob side and we're gonna get to
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: the next fight. Money has come in on Arman as well. Yeah,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: it was plus three fifteen a little while ago early
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: this week, now plus two fifty five. So yeah, great fight,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: you're on Morob. Yeah, if he wins He's definitely gonna
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: put up a big boy. What's going on? J moo?
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: How would do it? Main event? Tom Big Marley, last fight.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: Appreciate everyone watching Big Marley, Always appreciate your work. Love
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: talking fights with you. Good luck this week in the NFL,
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: and excuse me and the MMA. All I will say is,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: if I do have Islam and I need to ship,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: I will be hedging with Serukian assuming, like I know,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: he'll get whatever score he's going to get. I think
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: you'd be pretty silly not to cause, yeah, minus three
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: thirty is big for Islam. Serukian, though, I think the
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: two best right here plus two to fifty five on
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: the way back, plus one twenty for this fight to
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: finish Islam plus one seventy inside the dis in Serukian
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: plus five point fifty throw to you right away. What
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: makes you pick the underdog and over what seems to
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: be an unbeatable but he is twenty six to one.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: He did get knicked out ones, but man, has it
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: been one hell of a run for Islam? How can
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: Arman do it?
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: It's the line again, Like, if I'm just picking straight winners,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: I would have picked Umar over Marab. I think Umar
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: wins more than fifty percent of the time, but I
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: think on Umar side, you're kind of paying like an
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: extra ten percent for the last name Rmaga Medov. And
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: then on this one too, when I did it, Armand
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: was a twenty three percent underdog, now he's twenty seven percent.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: I just think that's disrespectful. I think he has a
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: better than twenty seven percent chance to beat any to
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: beat could beat. I just think Arman's the real deal.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: He thought Islam when he was like young, twenty three,
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: twenty two years old something like that, had a good
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: performance as like someone that just got into the UFC
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: with no real experience under his belt. And I think
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: that's gonna help him coming into this matchup too. I
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: think he could beat Islam on the feet. I think
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: he could knock out Islam. But I think he's gonna
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: land his own takedown here. I think he lands more
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: than I don't know what his prop is, but I
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: would make it a one and a half and I
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: would maybe even take that too, so the lines would
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: talk me into it. I think Islam Moore wins more
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: than fifty percent of the time, but minus three seventy
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: I just don't see any value there. I'd rather take
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: the underdog. If Armand wins the fight, he should be
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: on the optimal lineup. If Islam wins the fight, it's
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: not a guaranteed thing. I think he's got a lot
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: of people he's gonna have to compete with. He could
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: score ninety eight points be a good score, but not
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: at ninety four hundred with everybody else on this card.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: So I think it's that if there's a winner on
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: either one of these fights, that makes it where it's
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: not on the optimal, it's gonna be one of the favorites.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: So that makes me like them less two for DFS purposes.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: But since I'm picking them both to lose, I'm just
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: gonna be underweight. For those reasons, I'm gonna go heavy
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: on al Mada, heavy on Knackimore. Maybe that gets me
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: a little bit more Talbot, but I still, you know,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: I want a good amount of Makachev, a good amount
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: of Umar because they're amazing wrestlers. They're probably putting up
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: one hundred plus points. They're supposed to win, they're supposed
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: to dominate with these with these lines, I just think
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: that the lines are inflated, and I'm probably gonna bet.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: I already did bet both the other sides. Actually, I
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: might end up betting a little bit more on both
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: underdogs here. Those are my two favorite plays. I like
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: Reese as a possible play too, And then if I
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: had to throw out a fourth bet, it's ritterer. Those
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: are my top values on the card. I like it.
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: If I had to bet a sign on this one,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: and for sure be Armin, I like the Armin even
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: more plus money than Morale. I think Armin's more likely
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: to win, so I'll probably end up getting more Armin.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: The thing is, I mean, even if Arman wins, he's
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: gonna be optimal. It could be a seventy eight point optimal,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: eighty eight point optimal. Like I do think this fight
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: is fought at range a decent bit or at least
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: more than what people are expecting. I actually don't have
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: any underdog. Doesn't have any props for Arman for takedowns.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: They do have three and a half for Islam, which
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: is interesting. The thing is, when Morab wins, like you
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: just need them Andre was. If there's no underdogs that
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: win going into the final two fights, I would want
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: probably one hundred percent Morob like just what he does
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: for an underdog. If there was a fight to stack,
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: that would be the one. I'm not gonna do it
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: on this card. It doesn't sound like you're gonna be
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: fight stacking on the card. But Umar can win and
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: Morob can still be optimal, and Umar could not be optimal,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: like that is possible with Morob fights. There you need
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: again almost all underdogs to lose a lot of big
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 2: favorites to put up or a lot of favorites to
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: put up big scores. But it's not completely out of
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: the realm of possibilities. Yeah, I think that. I think
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: the line is definitely disrespectful for Arman. I think it's
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: number one in Islam, number two Arman, and it's gonna
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: be a great fight. And if they fought ten times
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: six or seven out of ten, is how I or Yeah,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: I don't think Islam wins eight out of ten. I
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: think probably would be in the seven range. And that
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: still says the odds are a little disrespectful. Final thoughts,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: Big Marley, I know you gave it at the end.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: Mainly underdogs lates in the five round fights. Pick some
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: of the other nine K range guys, But final thoughts
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: NFL predictions, if you want to give it final words
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: for the people now.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: I haven't even had a chance to dig into NFL yet,
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: but looking forward to it. Glad we got both games
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: on the slate. I think we're gonna have some awesome
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: games too, so that's gonna be a good one. I'm
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: looking forward to just getting this out of the way
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: so I can dig into NFL start making lineups on that.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be fun to make those lineups.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: But shit, we got this great pay per view too, man.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: I might I want to make one hundred and fifties
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: because I feel like there's so many ways we can
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: go on this card.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: Three fifty dollars match, Yeah, I might make one fifteen
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: to three dollars. I'll throw it all in the twenty five.
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, that three dollars nice.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I don't know what the hell I'm gonna do,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: but either way, good luck to you, man, good luck
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: Let's ship it is rights. Big Marley gave out a
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: couple of his favorite bets. I'll just leave you with one.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: It's not MMA, but Baltimore Ravens will take you to
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: the next round. Money line. That's how I go about it.
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: Good luck, everybody appreciate it ever hanging out like butt
• 1:10:02
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• 1:10:05
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• 1:10:09
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• 1:10:12
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• 1:10:16
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