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Stagflation Survival: Navigating the 2026 Market Storm · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning everyone !
• 0:02
  This is your host , Bucks Bunny , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
• 0:06
  It is 6 am on Thursday , March 19th , 2026 , here in the Pacific time zone .
• 0:12
  I am glad you could join me for our morning market checkin because , boy , it is a bit of a roller coaster out there .
• 0:19
  We are seeing some major waves of volatility this morning as the market reacts to a tough combo of geopolitical tension and a very cautious Federal Reserve .
• 0:29
  Looking at the big picture , the major indices hit new lows for 2026 just yesterday .
• 0:35
  The S&P 500 , or the SPY , dropped 1.4 percent to finish at 6,624.70 , while the Nasdaq , or QQQ , fell 1.5 percent .
• 0:48
  Even the Dow Jones , the DIA , took a 1.6 percent hit , closing below its 200day moving average for the first time this year .
• 0:57
  Premarket futures are showing that the selling pressure is not letting up yet .
• 1:02
  The big story is what we are calling a hawkish pause from the Fed .
• 1:06
  Yesterday , Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed held interest rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent .
• 1:14
  But here is the kicker : their new dot plot shows they only expect one rate cut for all of 2026 , which is way down from the three cuts we were hoping for earlier .
• 1:25
  They are worried about sticky inflation , with the 2026 PCE projections moving up to 2.7 percent .
• 1:33
  This has pushed the 10year Treasury yield up to 4.28 percent .
• 1:38
  On top of that , we have got a real supply shock in the energy market .
• 1:42
  Following Iranian missile attacks on LNG infrastructure in Qatar , Brent crude oil has spiked to 115 dollars per barrel .
• 1:52
  This is fueling a stagflation narrative where growth is rising but inflation remains stubbornly high .
• 1:59
  This energy crisis has made the Energy Select Sector SPDR , or XLE , the only real winner lately , as it rose 1.1 percent while everything else crumbled .
• 2:11
  Meanwhile , the Tech sector , or XLK , is down 1.3 percent .
• 2:17
  While Nvidia is showing some muscle during its GTC 2026 conference with CEO Jensen Huang announcing a massive one trillion dollar order backlog for AI chips , it is still fighting a wave of profittaking .
• 2:32
  Apple is also feeling the heat , down over 5 percent this month due to rising memory chip costs .
• 2:39
  Speaking of memory , Micron beat earnings estimates but their stock tumbled 4 percent in premarket because they are planning to spend a whopping 25 billion dollars on capital expenditures to stay ahead in the AI race .
• 2:53
  Even Bitcoin proxies like MicroStrategy fell 6.5 percent as Bitcoin dipped below 71,000 dollars .
• 3:01
  So , what should we do with our portfolios ?
• 3:04
  First , I recommend hedging against this geopolitical risk by looking at Energy and Gold .
• 3:10
  With oil at 115 dollars , the XLE ETF gives you great exposure to highmargin producers like ExxonMobil .
• 3:19
  Also , consider the SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD .
• 3:24
  Gold is at record highs over 4,700 dollars an ounce and serves as a great safety net right now .
• 3:31
  Second , it is probably time to reduce exposure to ratesensitive growth stocks .
• 3:37
  I would suggest trimming positions in the Invesco QQQ Trust or highspending names like Micron until we see bond yields stabilize .
• 3:46
  You might find a better temporary home in the Vanguard Value ETF , or VTV , which focuses on companies with steadier cash flows .
• 3:55
  Third , do not give up on AI entirely .
• 3:58
  The longterm cycle is still strong .
• 4:01
  Use these market dips as a strategic entry point for bestinclass infrastructure like Nvidia .
• 4:08
  Their fundamental floor is much stronger than their peers .
• 4:11
  Finally , to handle this UScentric volatility , consider diversifying geographically with something like the Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF , or VEA .
• 4:23
  It offers lower valuations , though I would stay away from emerging markets for now since high energy costs usually hit them the hardest .
• 4:32
  Overall , we should be cautious with the broad market SPY as we might see another 3 to 5 percent downside , but staying defensive in energy and gold while waiting for better tech entry points seems to be the smartest path forward .
• 4:47
  Stay safe out there and keep your eyes on the data .
• 4:51
  I will be back in a few hours with another update !