Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 46 - 5/17/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 46 - 5/17/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 46 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Friday. The work week is coming to an
0:36
end. The weekend is upon us.
0:38
My Boston Bruins might live to fight another day.
0:41
A huge Game 6 here in the Bean if you're a Bruins fan and a
0:45
Massachusetts native like me. But we got a lot to get to on
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today's podcast as we steam into the weekend, including four
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Major League Baseball bets. I have basically two that are a
0:55
favorite. One's kind of a pick em and one
0:57
is a dog. We'll see if we can get dog to
0:59
cash for us and bark for tonight then.
1:01
I do have a bet on the NBA, so we have an NBA game.
1:04
There's only one Nixon Pacers here with the Knicks leading and
1:07
the Pacers looking to force a game seven.
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And I'm going to focus on the total in that one.
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So stay tuned for that, which includes a rhythm edge, a nice
1:15
rhythm prediction basically with an edge compared to what rhythm
1:19
is predicting versus what the Oz makers are showing.
1:21
And then we're going to finish up with a little bit of UFC,
1:24
little bit of biting in the arena because we have a Ultimate
1:28
System match. This fighter, or biter as I like
1:31
to call him, young. He's not younger, they're both
1:33
the same age, but he's taller, much taller, much longer reach,
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huge low bets, higher dollars, bet split, less than half the
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tickets with more than 90% of the money with a big sharp line
1:43
move. So I'll tell you who that
1:43
fighter is to finish up the pod here for today.
1:46
I also want to mention to you that obviously you probably saw
1:50
it, but the one of the PGA Championship obviously
1:54
tournaments is going on right now and there's some insane news
1:56
this morning. Scotty Scheffler got arrested.
1:59
That's what I woke woke up to every every day.
2:01
When I wake up, my alarm goes off.
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I immediately go to Twitter, just say what's going on in the
2:04
world. Boom.
2:05
Scotty Scheffler obviously got arrested because he tried to.
2:09
And again I don't know the full details of the story, but there
2:12
was basically an accident. He tried to drive around it.
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The cops told him to stop. He didn't.
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But that was obviously the huge the huge news of the day.
2:21
But that just. I don't have a play on like
2:23
Scheffler in particular here, but the angle that I want to
2:27
talk about is rhythm real quick because rhythm, if you didn't,
2:30
if you haven't signed up for rhythm yet, they have unveiled
2:32
their golf AI caddy, so they don't have golf projections and
2:36
the AI caddy is unbelievable. I was texting my buddy James
2:39
Santor, who does work for rhythm and he's talking about how much
2:41
he's loving it. Basically you can live bet hole
2:44
to hole so we'll Scotty Scheffler par or birdie the next
2:48
hole rhythm may have a suggestion you can get a good
2:50
number. There's a lot of great live
2:51
betting oortunities so if you haven't done it yet I want you
2:53
to go sign U for rhythm so you can take advantage.
2:55
If you are a golf better. I'm not a huge golf better, but
2:58
Rhythm is telling. Tempting me to get into more
3:00
golf betting. But if you do like betting, golf
3:02
the hole to hole. I've never seen any other
3:04
company or app on the market who can have these projections, this
3:08
AI caddy, hole to hole. So if you haven't done it, sign
3:11
up for the Rhythm 7 day free trial.
3:13
Of course Rhythm does a great job of powering this podcast.
3:16
They also obviously have WNBA, so sign up for Rhythm.
3:19
You can do it by just clicking the bio description of this
3:22
podcast or you can just go to my Twitter page, there's a pin,
3:25
tweet. You can sign up right there for
3:26
the seven day free trial. So that being said, looking back
3:29
toward last night, guys 2 and 3 -, 0.9 units again, we're
3:33
knocking at the door, getting closer, haven't broken through
3:36
here. We did have a couple of big hits
3:38
with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pirates.
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One of those plays where it was like they can't win it Wrigley,
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they look gross. Cubs are the better team, but we
3:45
trusted the data. Sharp line move only 1/4 of
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bets, but the line went to the Pirates.
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Pirates hung on for a big win last night.
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Also the Tampa Bay Rays. I bet against my Red Sox and I'm
3:54
glad that I did. The Rays were able to come
3:56
through as basically a pick em type number against Boston.
3:59
Now the frustrating ones from last night.
4:01
One was the Denver Nuggets. An absolute no show.
4:04
A pathetic, disgusting performance by the Denver
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Nuggets. Because the Nuggets if you
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remember we got them plus 2 1/2. Now the angle there was there
4:12
plus three down to two and a half. 60% bet, 70% money.
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They were three and OATS as a dog.
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Actually three and O straight up as a dog.
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And the frustrating part wasn't just that they got blown out and
4:23
never showed up. It was that we beat the closing
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line. We did our part.
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We got a 2 1/2, they close at 2:00, we beat the market, we
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predicted the move and they lose by what, 45 points?
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So Nuggets you are pathetic, even though I'm still rooting
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for you with my plus one O 8 series price.
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And then the other two losses were the Rangers under 5 1/2.
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I thought we were in decent shape until the third period
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when the Carolina Hurricanes completely imploded and gave up
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a million goals in natural hat. Trick there for Chris Crowder.
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I know my guy Charlie C is happy.
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He's a big Rangers fan. So Rangers punched their ticket
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to the next round and then the Phillies.
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That was a tough one because they were down early.
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They battled back. Bryson Stott had a big hit to
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tie it up and they went into extras and after they scored
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against Diaz to force extras. Top of the 10th.
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You they they got out of it. The Mets did not score and
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you're like, oh nice. All we got to do is get one run
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and win the game. Gone into a double play, went to
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the 11th, they lose in the 11th so came up short.
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There were the phills. But either way guys, let's see
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if we can finish off our week on a hot note with A5 pack today.
5:27
Four MLB, one NBA rhythm suggested bet that I agree with
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and then also AUFC bet for this weekend.
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So that being said, first bet that I'm going to be sweating
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here tonight on a big Friday night.
5:38
I'll be honest with you guys, it's all about my Boston Bruins.
5:40
I didn't bet it but I'm a root like crazy for the Boston Bruins
5:43
and hopefully Brad Marchant to play tonight.
5:46
But that being said, I love the baseball slate.
5:48
So first one for me, I want to focus on a match up.
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Seattle and Baltimore tonight. Now, this one's interesting for
5:53
a couple reasons. First game of the series, the
5:56
Mariners are coming in 24 and 20.
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This is a 7 O 5:00 PM Eastern Time game by the By the way,
6:02
they just took the Mariners two or three against the Royals.
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They won in the Wednesday series finale, 4:00 to 2:00 as a -, 140
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home favorite. Meanwhile, the OS 27 and 14.
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They kept their streak alive of not losing a series for.
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I forget the the current number, but they're about to get swept
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by the Blue Jays their last series, and came up with a big
6:20
come from behind, win, win three to two as a -, 135 home
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favorite. So the pitching match up for
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tonight we have the Mariners going with Rady, Bryce Miller,
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who's three and three with a 2.66 ERA.
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Meanwhile, the OS are going with lefty Cole Irvin, who's four and
6:35
one with a 2.91 ERA. Now, what are we seeing across
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the market here? Well, little movement toward
6:41
Baltimore as well as some system matches.
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I'm going with the O's. Baltimore open this game around
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a -, 125 home favorite. We've seen the O's get steamed
6:49
up to -135, so that's that 10 cent steam indicator telling us
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the bigger, sharper wagers here have gotten down on the O's to
6:56
'cause that movement in their favor.
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Now the Orioles are getting around 75% bets, 80% of the
7:01
money, so pretty good pro and Joe bet split.
7:03
But really it's that 10 cent steam move that got me
7:05
interested. Now I'm going to bank on
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Baltimore's offense. They're hitting or So far
7:10
they've hit 64 homers and scored 203 runs.
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Seattle has only hit 50 homers and scored 168 runs.
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So hopefully the offense of the Orioles is a edge over Seattle.
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Now for the system matches, the big one here is both had the day
7:24
off. Take the favorite.
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Very simple. But when you have both teams who
7:27
didn't play the previous day, a lot of times you would assume,
7:30
hey, that's an equalizer. They both got the same amount of
7:32
rest, but really the cream rises to the top.
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The better team, I guess it is, is in a more advantageous
7:38
position if both teams had the day off.
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So both teams day off. Take the favorite that is 471
7:43
and two 6862% with a 4% ROI since 2020.
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So it's been a a profitable system historically.
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And then in particular the Orioles when they play teams
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that didn't make the playoffs the previous year, in this case
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Seattle who missed out on the playoffs last year.
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They've gone 61 and 2571% with a 17% ROI since the start of last
8:04
year. So hopefully that system match
8:05
comes through here for tonight. Now we are seeing as well a non
8:10
division favorite system match, so lack of familiarity
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benefiting the better team that would also match with Baltimore.
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So if you're giving me the O's, kind of a modest chalk price,
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$0.10 steam good system match both day off.
8:21
Take the favorite I'm going to go Baltimore.
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Here I'm laying it. Give me the O's at -135.
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Keep on cruising. Milwaukee Brewers and the
8:30
Houston Astros, a big interleague matchup tonight at
8:33
8:10 PM Eastern Time. Brewers come into this 126 and
8:37
17. They just took two of three
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against the Pirates. They won W Wednesday series
8:42
finale, 1:50 as a -, 150 home favorite.
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Meanwhile, the Stroh's. They've had a bad year, but
8:47
they're starting to get hot quietly.
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Have you guys noticed the Stroh's are now 19 and 25?
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They're seven and one. Over the last eight games, they
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just swept the A's. They won that finale series
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finale 8 to 1 as a -, 200 home favorite.
9:00
So for tonight's interleague series opener, the Brewers are
9:03
going with Freddy Peralta, the righty 3 in one 3.63 ERA.
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The Stroh's, meanwhile, are going with Freddy Hunter Brown
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who's O and four with a 7.79 ERA.
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Now what are we seeing across the market here?
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Well, looks like a very sharp reverse line move in favor of
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Houston. Now we open this game with
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Milwaukee listed as high as a -, 120 Rd. favorite and the public
9:24
says Milwaukee's got a much better one loss record.
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Houston. Yeah maybe you're hot recently
9:29
but you're only beating up on the A's and kind of lesser
9:31
competition. Give me Milwaukee all day.
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However despite 2/3 of bets, 65% going with Milwaukee the line is
9:39
falling away from Milwaukee toward Houston.
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Houston open or sorry, Milwaukee open -120 basically it's down to
9:45
-110. So we are basically at a pick'em
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now -110 basically both sides and that's notable because
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Publix on the Brewers. So if Publix betting Brewers the
9:54
open -120, why is why are the odds makers dropping the the
9:57
price on the Brewers To make it even easier for the public to
10:00
cash with. Milwaukee tells me we got smart
10:02
money here coming in on the Houston Astros.
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Stros have a really good bet split.
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They're only getting 35% of bets but 47% of dollars.
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So pretty good low bets higher dollars bet split.
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And in particular if you're like me, you're probably scared about
10:16
Hunter Brown tonight because ERA is 7.79, but hopefully he's
10:19
turning a corner. He's made two starts in the
10:21
month of May and he's only given up three runs in 9.1 innings
10:25
against the two starts against the Tigers and the Mariners.
10:28
Hopefully maybe he's turning it around a little bit.
10:30
Also, keep an eye out for the total here.
10:32
It did fall 8 1/2 down to 8 at quite a few shops, but we do
10:36
have the Astros 25 and 16 with three pushes to the under.
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So they're actually the 5th best under team and MLB, but this one
10:43
is really fishy to me. Milwaukee's got the better
10:44
record, but yet they open as a favorite and it's down to a pick
10:47
em. I got to go smart money here.
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I'm going to cross my fingers at Hunter Brown pitches.
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Well, I'm going to go with the Houston Astros now.
10:53
Shop around. I got the Stros at like -1 O 6.
10:57
They're around -1 O 5 -, 110. Somewhere around there.
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Basically you're paying just the standard chalk, chalk juice
11:03
price. But either way, let's go Astros,
11:06
we'll call it a -, 110. See if they can stay hot.
11:08
Hopefully tonight against the Brewers.
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Now, two more bets for you. Next one up, LA Angels and the
11:14
Texas Rangers. Now we're looking at this match
11:17
up here for tonight, a battle in the AL West.
11:20
We have both teams who've kind of struggle a little bit here.
11:22
The Angels just lost two or three against the Saint Louis
11:25
Cardinals, although they did avoid a sweep 1 seven to two in
11:28
the finale couple days ago. Rangers by the way they finally
11:31
snapped a losing skid. Think they had lost five or six
11:34
in a row. They beat Cleveland for nothing
11:36
in their last match up, but for tonight's match up, we have a
11:39
couple lefties on the bump. Tyler Anderson is going for the
11:42
Angels. He's three and four with a 2.92
11:45
ERA. He'll be opposed by Andrew
11:46
Heaney who's O and Four with a 4.39 ERA, but this is just a a
11:51
chalk price with steam on Texas, so I'm going Rangers here
11:54
Walker, Texas Ranger. This game opened with the Texas
11:57
Rangers listed around a -, 170 home favorite.
12:00
Now they've been bet up to around -180 and I see some shops
12:03
even inching toward -185. So it's notable to me that
12:06
basically since this line opened it's been non-stop Rangers money
12:10
coming in, respected money that is causing the steam move in
12:13
their favor. So it tells me the bigger,
12:15
sharper, more respected bets are laying the chalk with Texas.
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Texas. A couple reasons why I like
12:20
Texas. In addition to the Steam move,
12:22
same system match that we just talked about with Baltimore.
12:26
Both day off. Take the favorite.
12:28
That's just a match I mentioned was 62% since 2020.
12:32
This year it is 32 and 2359%, so it's also been profitable.
12:37
But then I got other system match.
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This would be a favorite with Steam versus A-Team who missed
12:41
the postseason. So basically you're favored,
12:43
you're expected to win. You're playing a team who missed
12:45
the playoffs last year means probably they're not very good
12:47
and you have the steam that indication of market movement in
12:49
your favor. That system is 74 and 3965% with
12:54
a 6% ROI that would match with Texas.
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Texas has the better plus minus differential or run differential
13:01
plus 14 versus -38. And also if you look at these
13:05
two pictures, on the surface it's like, hey, Anderson's
13:07
better than Heaney 2.92 ERA versus 4.39.
13:10
But what have you done for me recently?
13:12
Recently, Heaney's been better. Heaney has made three starts in
13:15
May. He has an ERA of two point OO.
13:17
If you look at Anderson, he's made two starts in May.
13:20
He has an ERA of 4.85 S now. The Rangers, you know, obviously
13:23
win the World Series last year. You're kind of around A500 team
13:26
this year. But the Angels know Mike Trout.
13:29
Rangers at home, coming off the Schneider, breaking that losing
13:32
streak the other day, I'm going to follow the steam and I'm
13:34
going to go Texas Rangers. Shop around.
13:36
I got the Rangers at -180 now last bet of the night here in
13:41
Major League Baseball. Hopefully a dog will bark for
13:44
us. Detroit Tigers, Arizona D backs.
13:47
I'm going to go Arizona here and a little bit of plus money on
13:50
the Snakes here tonight. But let's take a step back.
13:51
If you look at this match up here for tonight, obviously an
13:55
interleague showdown. Couple things going on that are
13:58
very important. Little background first on both
13:59
these teams though. If you look at Detroit, they're
14:02
21 and 22. Detroit just lost two of three
14:05
against Miami, which is kind of pathetic.
14:07
Miami's terrible. Diamondbacks still holding that
14:11
win total ticket over 83 1/2. They're 21 and 23, but they have
14:14
won three of their last four. They just took two of three
14:17
against Cincinnati. The pitching match up tonight.
14:19
This is why you're obviously seeing Detroit favored to Rick
14:23
Scoobel. This guy's been great.
14:24
I believe he's the favorite to win the American League, Cy
14:26
Young, and he's like plus 200 + 300.
14:29
His numbers are great. Scoobl is five and O2 point, O2
14:32
ERA. But I'm going to give you an
14:34
angle here. Why you want to maybe bet
14:35
against him. Nelson is on the bump for
14:39
Arizona. Nelson on the air two and two
14:40
5.33 ERA. So again pitching match up
14:43
screams Detroit. But the market's falling in
14:45
favor of the snakes. This game open Detroit listed as
14:48
high as a -, 140 -, 145 Rd. favorite.
14:52
Now Detroit is down to -135 -, 130.
14:55
So we're seeing about 10-15 cents of steam away from Detroit
14:59
toward Arizona. I also like the fact that
15:02
Detroit's the popular BET, Scoobull Obviously once you get
15:05
kind of become a, you know, a Cy Young candidate, obviously the
15:08
public wants to back you. So 60% of bets are on Detroit,
15:12
yet the lines falling away from them.
15:14
So this kind of screams like a little bit of that Pirates play
15:17
from yesterday where the public was, Cubs line went to Pirates,
15:20
this one's public Detroit line going to snakes.
15:23
Also offensively, I'm going to bank on the offense of Arizona.
15:26
They're hitting 245 versus only 225 for Detroit.
15:31
And also, you look at the offense here for the Snakes.
15:33
They've scored 215 runs versus only 168 for Detroit.
15:38
And a little cherry on top here is the fact that Arizona, even
15:42
though they're facing Tarek Skubel who has been great, I
15:44
can't say a bad word against them.
15:46
Arizona, did you know they are the number one team against
15:50
lefties this year? Offensively, Arizona's hitting
15:52
299 against left-handed pitchers.
15:55
That is pretty damn good. So hopefully the offensive
15:58
Arizona comes to bat and gets to scuba.
16:01
But I'm going to. I'm going to take Arizona and
16:02
the plus money here. Shop around.
16:04
I got Arizona at plus 1/20. So Baltimore, Houston, TX,
16:09
Arizona. Can we get three of these?
16:11
That is the goal for Major League Baseball for tonight.
16:14
Now over to the NBA. There's only one game tonight.
16:17
Knicks and Pacers. Now I was leaning a little bit
16:20
with the Pacers. If you look at this line
16:22
movement, the open -5, the embed up two round -5 1/2 at one point
16:27
they were even I believe they touched -6.
16:29
But if you look at the bet splits for this game here for
16:32
tonight, the Indiana Pacers is only getting 28% of bets.
16:35
They would be a fade the trendy dog play and I do want to shout
16:38
out like if you like I'm going to play the total.
16:40
I'm not going to play the side, but if you're making me pick a
16:43
side I would lean Pacers And one reason to like the Pacers
16:46
tonight, aside from being really contrarian and a fade the trendy
16:48
dog situation is the fact that our friends at Juice Reel my guy
16:52
Ricky Gold, the AI bot Robo Jackson has a recommended bet on
16:57
the Pacers -5 1/2. The line may come down to five.
17:01
You may want to wait. Maybe you get a better number.
17:03
But he did have a system match here on the Pacers in terms of
17:06
favorites off a loss and this is a money line system.
17:08
They're 17 and seven. The money line's a little too
17:10
high. It's like -200 for me.
17:13
But Robo Jackson, our guy, the AI bot, he is recommending the
17:16
Pacers. So just you know, take that for
17:18
what it's worth. I also I would love for you guys
17:20
to sign up for a Juice Reel subscription here you can just
17:23
click the bio in this podcast and also check my Twitter page
17:27
but that custom link will get you signed up.
17:28
You can sync up your sports books, track your performance,
17:31
learn about yourself as a better.
17:32
It's a great app giving you arbitrage bets, recommended best
17:35
bets, as well as the sharp mush plays which basically tell you
17:39
the games or the the sharps are all on one side and the mushes
17:42
the bad betters are on the other.
17:43
But anyway, with that being said, I'm going to focus on the
17:46
total. And the total is intriguing to
17:47
me because if you look at the way it's moved, it's really
17:50
fallen quite a bit. Nixon, Pacers.
17:52
So this total opened 217 1/2. It's now down to 215 1/2.
17:58
So it's undeniable to me that you immediately when this line
18:01
was available, you had some respective money quite a bit
18:04
early hammering this under. So 217 1/2 down to 215 1/2.
18:10
But here's where I'm going to actually buy loan go the other
18:12
way. I'm going to go over 215 1/2.
18:14
The one angle here for me is just a value bet.
18:17
Like if you're betting under 215 1/2 right now, yes, you're with
18:20
the line move, but you're getting the worst of the number.
18:23
So let's say this game lands 216 or 217.
18:26
Well, the wise guys or gals who at the under 217 1/2, they're
18:30
going to cash, we're going to lose if we get that late number.
18:33
Now obviously if it goes under anyway, it'll be like, hey, you
18:35
know, why not just take the line move?
18:37
But here's where I have a little bit of confidence that this
18:39
thing will fly over. One is our friends at Rhythm.
18:43
Rhythm Who's again, I can't speak highly enough about
18:45
rhythm. You know why I like rhythm?
18:47
Because they're all about data, not about opinion, not about
18:50
what they think or want or hope will happen.
18:52
Which most of the sports betting media is all about hot takes and
18:56
saying provocative things. No, their AI bot is looking at
18:58
the data and looking at models and then having projections that
19:02
you can play off the books. So the reason why I like to buy
19:05
low on this Knicks over 215 1/2 is that Rhythm is projecting 219
19:10
1/2. So that is a pretty big
19:12
discrepancy. That is about a four.
19:14
What is that? A 4 1/2 point discrepancy?
19:17
4 four and a half? Something like that.
19:20
I also think it's a by law opportunity because if you look
19:22
at the totals in the series since game one, the total was
19:26
two 17218, 1/2, two 21219, 1/2 and 2:18.
19:32
So I know later in the series, again, I do like to lean unders
19:35
a little bit, especially game sevens.
19:37
But this is a value play, basically, in terms of the fact
19:40
that of the entire series, 215 1/2 is the lowest number.
19:44
I mean, we've been closer to 220 in a lot of these games.
19:47
I'm not going to give up on the Pacers in terms of their
19:49
offensive prowess. And really, they've been a
19:51
really good offensive team. They're number 2IN pace, they're
19:54
#2 in offensive efficiency. They're #24 in defensive
19:57
efficiency. It's also a relatively short
19:59
spread, you know, 5 1/2, basically.
20:01
So maybe it's a competitive game.
20:03
Obviously if you're on the Pacers, which is the side that I
20:06
lean, 'cause they are contrarian, then you're rooting
20:08
for, you know, a game that's not going to be close.
20:10
But within a 5 point spread or so, typically competitive, you
20:14
know, back and forth scoring, maybe you get an overtime here,
20:18
which again you're not rooting for if you're Pacers.
20:20
But you do have a couple really good over referees, in
20:24
particular Zach Zarba. He's one of the better over refs
20:27
now. The extender, it's not Scott
20:29
Foster tonight, he's not doing this game, but Zarba Goble and
20:31
Guthrie Zarba is about 54% to the over.
20:35
And then here's a little caveat which I noticed which gave me a
20:38
little more confidence in in buying loan.
20:41
Going over here they have an extra day of rest.
20:44
If you look at this next Pacer series, they have played every
20:46
other night. So play today off tomorrow, play
20:50
the next day, off the next day. However, since the last game to
20:54
this game they've had two days off.
20:56
The last game was played on the 14th of May, that was on
20:59
Tuesday. So one of the angles when you
21:01
get into a late seas, late series under system match is
21:05
tired legs. I think this is going to be a
21:07
big benefit when you're used to the grind in the in the battles
21:10
of playoff, whether it's basketball, whether it's, you
21:13
know, hockey, any sport, an extra day of rest when you're
21:16
used to playing every other day can really make a big
21:18
difference. Hopefully that's a benefit to,
21:20
you know, these players who are banged up, who are tired, get
21:23
some extra treatment, some extra rest.
21:24
I think that's an angle here that might be a little bit
21:26
undersold. So I'm going to go over.
21:28
I'm going to go Knicks and Pacers buy low over 215 1/2 and
21:32
hopefully rhythm with a projection of 219 1/2 can help
21:35
us cash this bet. Now to finish up the pod, my
21:39
favorite and what I like to say and call biting little bit of
21:42
UFC again. I always mention this because we
21:44
have new people listening to the pod and they always like what
21:46
the hell are you saying, biting. For those who don't know, biting
21:51
is when Bruce Baffer, the guy who introduces everyone in the
21:55
in the Octagon. He has his card where he reads
21:57
and talks about each fighter and then he says fighting in this
22:01
corner weighing in at 165 lbs, yadda yadda yadda.
22:05
But it sounds like he says biting, not fighting.
22:07
So that's where me and my buddies kind of coined the
22:09
phrase. Anyway, that doesn't really
22:12
matter. UFC though, we had a pretty good
22:14
win last week. I forgot Woodson who came
22:17
through for us. And if you remember, Woodson
22:19
checked off every box and if you're new to UFC, I have a
22:22
rudimentary model. I'm not going to say it's, you
22:24
know, reinventing the wheel, but what I look for is a fighter who
22:27
was younger, taller, has a longer reach, has a line move
22:31
and has a good bet split in their favor.
22:33
So with that being said, I found a fighter, a biter this weekend,
22:37
who was checking off almost every single box, and it is Abu
22:42
Mago Madoff. He is fighting Worley Alves, and
22:46
I'm going Abu Mago Madoff. I'll tell you why.
22:49
I like Mago Madoff. Mago Madoff #1 has a pretty good
22:53
line move in his favor. Mago Madoff opened around -200.
22:58
He's now been bet up all the way as high as like -250, so right
23:03
off the bat he's got a good line move tells us smart money is
23:05
hitting Moggo Madoff. Now I got a fresh batch of data
23:09
for my buddy John Ewing for this UFC Fight Night bout, Barbosa
23:12
versus Murray Murphy, and not only did I see the line move on
23:17
Moggo Madoff, but the bet split is really sharp.
23:20
Moggo Madoff is only getting 45% of bets, but 95% of the money.
23:25
So less than 50% bets, but almost 100% of the money.
23:29
What does that tell us? It tells us that the bigger,
23:31
sharper wagers are going Moggo Madoff.
23:34
Now, Moggo Madoff is not younger.
23:36
They're both 33 years old. But you're going to like this if
23:39
you're going to sweat Moggo Madoff with me.
23:41
Moggo Madoff is 6 foot two. His opponent, Worley Alvez, is 5
23:45
foot 9. So big height advantage.
23:48
Moggo Madoff has a 78 inch reach versus Alvez has a 72 inch
23:53
reach. So a huge reach advantage, 6
23:54
inches. That's big.
23:56
I also like the fact that Alves I was reading a lot of you know,
24:00
descriptions and breakdowns of the pod they or the the fight
24:03
here and they talk a lot about your chin having a a you know, a
24:06
tough chin or a hard chin. Well, apparently Mago Alves I
24:10
should say is his chin is questionable.
24:13
He's been getting knocked around.
24:14
He's lost three straight bouts Now you could say, hey he's
24:16
hungry and he's going to want to fight back.
24:18
Well, maybe he's wearing down. Maybe.
24:20
Maybe that's a negative sign. I'm going to go for the latter,
24:22
that it's a negative sign. If you look at Mago Madoff, he's
24:27
had more significant strikes per minute, 3.73 versus 3.25 and his
24:32
defense of significant strikes 54% versus 50%.
24:37
But aside from the significant strikes, you know the recent
24:39
performance, to me this is all about a data-driven play.
24:42
Margo made off 45% bets, 95% money, much taller, way longer
24:48
of a reach in a big line move. So shop around this, this
24:51
numbers all over the place. I see a -, 250.
24:53
I see a -, 270. Again, try to get the best
24:56
number you can. I was able to get Mago Madoff at
24:59
-250. And remember, no matter what the
25:02
number is plus, minus, bet, tourist, not bet to win.
25:05
If you're sweating Mago Madoff with me, you're not risking 2.5
25:08
units to win one unit, you're just risking your one unit
25:11
trying to get a little less than 1/2 unit back.
25:12
Because if he loses, I hope he doesn't, but if he does, we lose
25:15
1 unit like any other bet. You don't want to lose 2.5.
25:18
So let's go Mago Madoff at -250. Now that about does it for
25:23
episode 46 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast on a big
25:27
Friday. Now if you listen to the pod,
25:30
enjoy the pod. Hopefully you've learned a thing
25:32
or two along the way in terms of data-driven betting.
25:35
Hopefully you enjoy the breakdowns whether you play
25:38
every game that I suggest or you pick and choose or you just want
25:41
to sit back and listen to the breakdowns and maybe, you know,
25:43
wait for one little little piece of insight that you didn't
25:46
consider. Well, First off, thank you for
25:48
listening. This pod is nothing without you
25:49
guys tuning in and and being a part of the crew.
25:52
I always make the joke that when I get ready to record the
25:55
podcast in my in my very palatial basement studio here,
26:00
I'm just kidding. It's it's really not.
26:02
But I was thinking about, you know, going to the book, pulling
26:05
up a chair to the virtual bar, sitting with my buddies, talking
26:07
about games. That's the way I always think
26:09
about each pod. But of course we're trying to
26:11
bet with our head and not our heart.
26:12
But anyway, First off, thank you for listening.
26:14
And then #2 can I ask something of you?
26:16
Could you please be very kind and give this podcast a five
26:20
star review? Whether it is Spotify or iTunes
26:24
with Apple, five stars really helps us to grow up the charts
26:27
grow organically. Also recommend the pod to a
26:29
friend. It would really mean a lot to me
26:30
guys. Those five star reviews really
26:33
help us to rise up the rank. So if you haven't done it yet,
26:35
give us five stars. That would really, really be
26:37
helpful. Secondly, if you enjoy the pod
26:40
and you want to learn more about data-driven sports betting, then
26:43
guess what? I have another recommendation.
26:45
Go buy my book. Support the team.
26:46
Learn more about data-driven betting.
26:48
All you got to do is go to Amazon.com, type in the
26:51
Everything Guide to Sports betting, pick up a copy for you
26:53
or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
26:55
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
26:58
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
27:00
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
27:03
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan.
27:06
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
27:08
Betting. So pick one up, gift it to a
27:10
friend. It would mean a lot to me, and
27:12
when I see at the book, I'm going to sign it for you.
27:14
I'm going to buy you a beer or maybe a ginger ale, whatever you
27:18
prefer. The first one's on me, Next
27:20
one's on you. Then we're going to sweat some
27:22
games together. That about does it for episode
27:24
46 of the All Systems Gopod presented by Rhythm.
27:28
And whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
27:31
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods
27:33
or Mohegan Sun. Down in Connecticut at the
27:35
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
27:39
In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
27:41
We're out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
27:43
Where Billy Walters sends his number runners.
27:45
Where the lowest use possible has found the South Point.
27:48
Or, of course, sweat and sharp contrarian plays at circa
27:51
jumping in the stadium swim pool.
27:52
When you cash a ticket getting a victory burger at the end of the
27:55
night, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
27:56
and you're going to show me a nice little plus money Pirates
28:00
ticket. Sharp as a tack.
28:02
So sharp I cut my finger when I put that bed in last night.
28:05
And of course the Tampa Bay Rays also came through for the team.
28:07
But the Denver Nuggets? What a pathetic, disgusting no
28:10
show. I really didn't think the
28:12
Nuggets had that kind of performance in them.
28:14
What are you going to do? On to the next?
28:16
First one's on me, Next one's on you.
28:18
We're going to sweat sharp, contrarian plays all night long,
28:20
so wish you the best of luck. Everyone have a great Friday and
28:23
an even better weekend by parting words that always like
28:27
to leave. Leave you with.
28:28
Stay sharp, stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
28:32
Place yourself on the side of the house.
28:33
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
28:35
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
28:38
We got a + 2 1/2 on the Nuggets. They close two.
28:41
They they have a no show and we get blown out.
28:43
That's going to happen. That's sports betting.
28:44
But if we can consistently be, you know find those games that
28:47
fit the model against the public with the house, with the pros,
28:51
flat bet, avoid parlays, get some CLV.
28:53
If we can do that we're going to be successful sports betters
28:55
long term. So enjoy the sweats every night
28:58
guys or the OR the sweats for tonight and this weekend and can
29:00
you do one thing for me? Just come together gather
29:03
around. Can you pray to the hockey gods
29:07
that the Boston Bruins hopefully Bradmarshan is ready to go.
29:11
Can you pray to the hockey gods that the Boston Bruins play like
29:15
gods tonight and force a game seven?
29:18
Because I cannot wait to sweat my Bruins tonight.
29:21
Do I have action on them? No, but I have the original
29:22
action being a die hard fan. So let's go bees.
29:25
It'll be rocking at the Garden tonight, but enjoy your Friday.
29:29
Enjoy your weekend guys. I will write the sharp report
29:32
for which I do for vsin.com. You can find that for Saturday
29:35
and Sunday on my Twitter page at Josh under Score Insights.
29:39
And of course, again, sign up for that Rhythm Rhythm trial as
29:42
well as the Juice Rail trial and I'll see you guys back on Monday
29:45
for episode 47 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
29:48
Podcast Powered by Rhythm. Have a great weekend, guys.
29:52
Good luck.