Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - The Inevitability of SpaceMobile: Bluebirds, Bond Math, and Blue Origin

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Anpanman - The Inevitability of SpaceMobile: Bluebirds, Bond Math, and Blue Origin · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

• 0:06
  This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
• 0:11
  Just basically from your phone, be seamless regardless of where
• 0:14
  you are. We don't want the user even to
• 0:16
  know that it's connected by satellite.
• 0:21
  Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
• 0:28
  Hey everyone, I'm back. Thanks for joining this
• 0:31
  afternoon. I decided to fire up a space
• 0:34
  just given all the various news that's that's come out recently
• 0:38
  and just wanted to share a few thoughts.
• 0:41
  But but yeah, I was away for the long weekend and for an extra
• 0:46
  day or two skiing. And so I was pretty much out of
• 0:49
  Commission. And then we came back this week
• 0:53
  and I've just been settling back into the routine of things.
• 0:57
  But yeah, I wanted to fire up a space and talk about ASD Space
• 1:02
  Mobile. So I guess before I started, I
• 1:05
  just didn't want to discuss the macro backdrop.
• 1:07
  So, you know, we've had a pullback in small caps.
• 1:11
  There's some uncertainty around interest rate, the interest rate
• 1:15
  environment. You know, I think obviously the
• 1:18
  PC came in a little hot today. And so people are trying to
• 1:22
  figure out if the Fed is going to have any room to cut which
• 1:26
  I've posted some information from Trueflation, which is a
• 1:31
  real time data provider. They, they, you know, they
• 1:35
  survey thousands and thousands of price points across
• 1:39
  different, you know, if you, if you'd imagine what BLS does with
• 1:42
  their inflation data, which is stale and, and perhaps two to
• 1:46
  three months late, these guys actually do it in real time and
• 1:49
  they, they do a survey across more data points.
• 1:51
  And so if you look at the trends what true inflation is offering,
• 1:55
  it looks like inflation can do as a crater.
• 1:57
  But but yeah, I mean, you've got various Fed governors saying
• 2:02
  that the perhaps we're going to pause and maybe inflation is is
• 2:06
  stubborn and maybe we might even move to an environment where the
• 2:09
  raising rates. But what I've kind of find is
• 2:12
  that inflation is a leading indicator by two to three months
• 2:16
  relative to what is actually reported by BLS.
• 2:18
  So yeah, it looks like inflation may even go negative.
• 2:23
  So I would just keep that in mind as we, you know, you hear
• 2:28
  from these Fed governors jawboning about how inflation
• 2:31
  has been stubborn, but I, I do think interest rate cuts will
• 2:34
  continue to come. And so I think now of course the
• 2:37
  market is having some level of heartburn, but I think that will
• 2:41
  eventually happen. And of course we've got the
• 2:43
  potential conflict with Iran. You know, the markets always
• 2:46
  hate uncertainty, whether you know, we're going to a potential
• 2:51
  conflict. And once it does happen, it
• 2:55
  usually there's some type of relief afterwards, depending on
• 2:58
  what the outcome was. And obviously, obviously no one
• 3:02
  wants to go into war. And you know what the biggest
• 3:05
  uncertainty around that is whether that expands into
• 3:08
  something bigger. If it was small, you never know
• 3:11
  what's going to happen. So, you know, hopefully we we
• 3:15
  have peace and there's some type of negotiated settlement or
• 3:19
  solution, but but who knows. But anyway, moving on, I think
• 3:24
  maybe I first covered the topic of AST's recent credible bond
• 3:29
  offering, which I did cover before.
• 3:30
  But while I was thinking about it this past week, I actually
• 3:37
  went back and looked at the historic shareholder or
• 3:41
  bondholder of each of the issuances that AST did
• 3:45
  previously. And with the help of AI.
• 3:47
  Because candidly, I was a bit too lazy to try to go through
• 3:51
  each of the, the holders, which, you know, I, I have a pretty
• 3:54
  good sense of who is a hedge fund and who's along only.
• 3:57
  But with AI, you can do a deeper analysis and come to a hopefully
• 4:03
  a better educated guess. But going back on AST's previous
• 4:09
  convertible bond issuances, you look at the one that was done in
• 4:13
  January of 2025, that was a $460 million convert.
• 4:18
  And the composition, if you look at the holders, which you can
• 4:22
  get this information through Bloomberg, it looks like about
• 4:26
  55% of that issue was allocated to hedge funds.
• 4:29
  And typically when hedge funds buy convertible bonds, they are
• 4:33
  doing that as arbitragers. And so they'll go along with the
• 4:35
  bonds and then they'll short the deltas or the, you know, they'll
• 4:40
  hedge out the underlying warrant that you get with that
• 4:43
  convertible bond. And so typically at time of
• 4:45
  issue, you might be on a 60 percent delta.
• 4:50
  And so if you do some simple math, say for example, or
• 4:55
  actually I'll go to the math a little later on this on our
• 4:58
  specific issue that was done in February.
• 5:00
  But back then, you know, the, the hedge fund composition was
• 5:03
  pretty high. And so as a result, there was
• 5:05
  probably a pretty significant amount of short selling to hedge
• 5:09
  out the the underlying warrant. And the way that convertible
• 5:12
  bond arbitragers make money is that they look to, they have
• 5:19
  some optionality with that warrant and they'd look to
• 5:21
  monetize it over time. And So what that means is as if
• 5:25
  you have a underlying stock that's pretty volatile, then the
• 5:28
  you'll, you'll trade around the deltas where if the stock goes
• 5:31
  up, then you know you'll be even more long the stock just given
• 5:36
  that the warrant has gained in value.
• 5:38
  And so you'll shorten more shares.
• 5:39
  Or if the stock goes down, you'll cover shares.
• 5:42
  And so from that volatility, you'll basically chop out, you
• 5:47
  know, profit here and there. And, and that's the way that you
• 5:50
  can monetize that bond. And, and so if a company has a
• 5:53
  high level of volatility, then convertible arbitragers make
• 5:56
  quite a bit of money by hedging deltas.
• 5:59
  And, and then of course, like there's a, a, a big event where,
• 6:04
  let's say, you know, something positive comes out for AST and
• 6:07
  the stock really gaps up. Then as long as those
• 6:11
  convertible arbitragers are, are on a delta, that's not one,
• 6:15
  meaning they're not fully hedged, but you know, they'll
• 6:17
  make money on the warrant because it increases in value.
• 6:19
  And then they'll hedge that out. And of course, like if the stock
• 6:22
  drops, they'll cover theirs, they'll cover their hedge and
• 6:26
  they'll hope that, you know, the stock goes back up and, and as a
• 6:28
  result of covering low, they can put out the hedge again.
• 6:31
  And so, so yeah, that's in a nutshell what convertible
• 6:35
  arbitragers do. They're not, they're not
• 6:38
  necessarily focused on fundamentals, but they want to
• 6:41
  be involved in a security that's going to have a high level of
• 6:45
  realized volatility versus expected volatility.
• 6:48
  And if they can trade that properly, you know, they might
• 6:50
  have a view fundamentally of the the company.
• 6:54
  Maybe if they're bullish, they'll go on a light hedge or
• 6:57
  if they're negative, they'll go on a a heavy hedge, but they'll
• 7:00
  look for ways to extract as much, you know, profitability
• 7:03
  from trading around that bond as they can.
• 7:07
  And so those those are hedge funds.
• 7:08
  And then of course, long only guys who are buying because they
• 7:11
  fundamentally like the credit, meaning, you know, they like the
• 7:15
  that ASD is from a fundamental perspective, they think that
• 7:20
  things are going to go well for the company and they want to own
• 7:22
  the bond. They'll collect their for the
• 7:26
  most recent issuance 2.25% coupon.
• 7:29
  And then they've got this upside option where if the stock
• 7:32
  performs really well, then then the bond will go gain in value
• 7:35
  because then equity underlying the bond will become worth more
• 7:39
  than the, the bond itself. And so in the future when that
• 7:44
  happens, when, when you, you don't have an appreciation
• 7:46
  equity, then you would exercise eventually you, you don't
• 7:50
  exercise early, but you would eventually exercise the
• 7:54
  conversion and take delivery of shares and, and basically the,
• 7:58
  the, the debt, the underlying debt gets extinguished.
• 8:01
  But yeah, so in the January 2025 issue there was 55% hedge funds
• 8:07
  and then July 2025 when the company did a $575 million
• 8:11
  convert, there were 66% hedge fund owners.
• 8:15
  And and this is percent ownership as as a as a number or
• 8:20
  the total issue versus number of of holders.
• 8:23
  And so this is an accurate reflection, but but back in July
• 8:27
  2025 you had a bit more hedge funds but then interestingly in
• 8:31
  October 2025 when the company issued their 1.15 billion dollar
• 8:35
  2% convertible note, which was a A10 year.
• 8:38
  You know it's rare that you ever see a 10 year paper usually it's
• 8:41
  like 7 or five. That one only had 23% hedge fund
• 8:46
  participation and 77% long only participation.
• 8:49
  So what that means is that in that particular issue there were
• 8:54
  less hedge funds and then as a result of that there was
• 8:58
  probably less hedging that was going on, meaning less shorting
• 9:00
  of of the bonds. And so if we look at you know,
• 9:05
  just doing some simple math, the most recent issue that we did
• 9:09
  was 1.15 billion if you take into account the overallotment
• 9:12
  option. And then the conversion price
• 9:14
  was $116.30, which is a 20% premium versus where, you know,
• 9:19
  the stock had closed when they launched the the offering, which
• 9:23
  was I think like 96. If you take 1.15 billion, divide
• 9:27
  that by 100 and 1600 and $16.30, that gets you to 9.9 million
• 9:33
  shares underlying that bond, right?
• 9:35
  And so we assume that, you know, if it's 40%, let's see here,
• 9:43
  let's just assume that I think this is going to end up being
• 9:48
  pretty high. Well, let's just assume that 30%
• 9:51
  of the issue was allocated to arbitragers.
• 9:53
  And so that would be 3,000,000 shares to hedge if they were on
• 9:57
  100% delta, which they aren't going to be.
• 9:59
  And so they probably are going to be a call it like a 60%
• 10:02
  delta. And so if you assume that 30% of
• 10:06
  Arb's, you know, hedge funds received an allocation in this
• 10:10
  deal, then that resulted in only all at 1.8 million shares to
• 10:14
  short. And so of course we saw
• 10:17
  significant pressure on the company's stock, which I think
• 10:19
  you know, it was probably people taking advantage of the offering
• 10:23
  who, who went short. And then of course, you know,
• 10:27
  the market pulled back and any number of things, you know, you
• 10:30
  have people who are panicking and they sold.
• 10:32
  And so if it was only 1.8 million shares a short to get
• 10:35
  hedged, you know, we, we have certainly gone well past that
• 10:41
  probably in the first day, but definitely I think any residual
• 10:45
  impact from hedging is probably gone at this point.
• 10:48
  And so I just wanted to point that out because I think, you
• 10:51
  know, in previous time, previous issue, we thought that maybe
• 10:54
  there was probably going to be two to three days for things to
• 10:56
  settle out, whereas I think this time around it's probably done.
• 11:01
  And so I think at this point, if you know, some of these
• 11:05
  catalysts hit and things stabilize with the market, I
• 11:09
  think the company is pretty well positioned or the stock is well
• 11:12
  positioned for a pretty big rally, which lead me to the news
• 11:16
  that came yesterday. We learned that Bluebird 7 was
• 11:20
  encapsulated into Blue Origin New Glen's fairing.
• 11:25
  And so if you look at the timeline of at least four
• 11:28
  Israel, which is not a, an exact, you know, all these
• 11:32
  things in terms of precedent, they're not going to give you an
• 11:35
  exact timeline. Of course, things can change and
• 11:37
  maybe the the process with Blue Origin is different than than
• 11:40
  Israel. But if we look at when the
• 11:43
  company had encapsulated the Bluebird 6 into LVM Three's
• 11:48
  fairing, a launch date was set, I think it was like 4 to five
• 11:53
  days after. And so I had put a timeline in a
• 11:57
  tweet earlier about how, you know, if you, if it followed
• 12:01
  Bluebird 6's timeline, then we're probably looking at a
• 12:05
  launch date being set sometime in about four days.
• 12:09
  And then from that point, once launch date is set, you know
• 12:14
  that from the 24th, then you're probably looking at something as
• 12:18
  early as February 28th to sometime in early March.
• 12:21
  Now there's obviously like a lot going down going on at Cape
• 12:25
  Canaveral. We just learned today that
• 12:28
  Artemis 2 is the target launch date is March 6th.
• 12:33
  And so that would mean that either Blue Origin New Glenn
• 12:37
  three with Bluebird 7 is going to launch sometime before then
• 12:40
  or sometime shortly after. And with Artemis 2's target
• 12:44
  date, you know, they're, they're looking at no earlier than March
• 12:48
  6th, but then that could get delayed, you know, if weather or
• 12:51
  other complications. So, you know, they, I think
• 12:53
  there's dates of March 7th, 8th, 9th and 11th as alternatives.
• 12:58
  But I would expect that Blue Origin New Glen will probably
• 13:02
  launch sometime in that time frame, you know, in on a day
• 13:07
  that happens either before or after Artemis 2.
• 13:10
  And so for those who are interested in in going down and
• 13:14
  seeing the launch and I'm not sure how the company is going
• 13:16
  to, you know, provide invites, but you might get a chance to
• 13:21
  actually see both launches back-to-back, which would be
• 13:23
  pretty cool. Some people have asked how the
• 13:27
  company would invite shareholders and is it going to
• 13:30
  be based on the number of shares you own or anything like that?
• 13:33
  I don't think that's their approach.
• 13:35
  It's going to be probably a lottery system and, you know,
• 13:39
  you might have to prove that you do own shares, but I don't think
• 13:41
  it's going to be dependent on how many you own.
• 13:44
  But as I said before, I don't think that there will be a lot
• 13:49
  of slots available just given that there's probably going to
• 13:52
  be folks from Blue Origin who are, and, you know, guests of
• 13:56
  Blue Origin who are going to be watching New Glen launch.
• 13:58
  And so whatever happens, it's going to be a pretty packed
• 14:02
  house. And either way, if you don't get
• 14:05
  a direct invite, you can still go down there for lunch.
• 14:09
  But you know, this the setting. I, I talked about this earlier,
• 14:13
  but previously when ISRO had finally set a launch date that
• 14:18
  kicked off a rally in the stock price from what was, I think it
• 14:23
  was when they announced, let me see here when they announced the
• 14:29
  encapsulation and then they had sent, but specifically they set
• 14:32
  the launch date and that was on December 19th.
• 14:36
  They set the launch date for December 23rd.
• 14:38
  The stock rallied about 69%. Yeah, great number.
• 14:42
  But I, I do think once we get that launch date scheduled, you
• 14:47
  are going to see the stock pick up in expectations of that
• 14:51
  launch. And then of course, in the
• 14:53
  meantime, in between the setting of that launch date and of
• 14:58
  course launch day, we also have the Q4 update, which is probably
• 15:01
  going to be chock full of update, you know, news and, and
• 15:04
  other things, which I'll cover a little later.
• 15:06
  But but yeah, the next two to three weeks are setting up very
• 15:11
  bullishly. And now, obviously, you know, if
• 15:14
  the US attacks Iran this weekend or in the coming days and, and
• 15:19
  perhaps, you know, some unforeseen things happen there,
• 15:22
  then you know, the market in terms of macro backdrop that
• 15:26
  could overwhelm any particular, you know, micro thing that's
• 15:29
  happening with the stock. But for, for my perspective, I
• 15:33
  think, you know, the company is, is setting up quite well for a
• 15:36
  rally like in the next few two to three weeks.
• 15:39
  So or it's worth like I've, I've taken some upside risk to, to
• 15:45
  take advantage of that in case it does happen.
• 15:48
  But anyway, moving on AT&T in their tweet, they disclose that
• 15:53
  they're expecting beta testing to start soon.
• 15:56
  I know some people have have discussed the idea of getting
• 16:01
  into 25 satellites first before beta testing rolls out, But I
• 16:04
  think, I think beta test testing can start sooner than that and
• 16:09
  could already be underway with the first, you know, Block 5,
• 16:12
  block 1 satellites. And then, you know, as we add
• 16:16
  additional satellites that beta testing will become more
• 16:18
  thorough and comprehensive. But, but yeah, I, I don't think
• 16:22
  it's going to be predicated on 25 satellites being up in orbit.
• 16:26
  I think it's going to happen sooner.
• 16:28
  But, but yeah, we'll see. Another interesting thing this
• 16:32
  past, I think it was last week AST filed with the FCC that they
• 16:38
  were pursuing 2 gigahertz spectrum globally and
• 16:41
  specifically it's 1980 through 2025 megahertz and for uplink
• 16:46
  and then 2160 to 2200 downlink. And so if you look
• 16:51
  internationally, the two primary holders of that spectrum are
• 16:55
  Echostar Biosat, which Biosat, you know acquired Inmersat and
• 17:00
  as a result received that company's spectrum allocations.
• 17:04
  The key thing here is that ASD is angling to get an out
• 17:09
  location. You know they perfected their
• 17:12
  spectrum rights by buying, I forgot the the company's name,
• 17:15
  but but they'd have priority rights for two gigahertz
• 17:18
  spectrum globally and they are they appear to be well
• 17:22
  positioned to receive a 2 gigahertz spectrum allocation
• 17:27
  from the EU which is going to happen in May of 2027.
• 17:31
  And so as most of you know, AST formed a joint venture with with
• 17:35
  Vodafone and that it seems like they are likely getting an
• 17:41
  allocation, you know, whether that's 10 by 10 or 15 by 15, you
• 17:45
  know, it's it rains to be seen. But but the fact that they are
• 17:49
  pushing this actively at the FCC just shows that they believe
• 17:54
  they're well positioned and that Echostar vice that are probably
• 18:01
  going to get paired back. But, you know, it's, it's a, one
• 18:05
  of the puzzle pieces kind of hinting at where the company is
• 18:08
  going. Let's see today I, I did drop
• 18:13
  this Israeli podcast interview with Roy Sofer.
• 18:16
  He is a senior vice president of engineering.
• 18:20
  He heads the Israeli office, which is focused on a lot of the
• 18:23
  RF, you know, the chip development and, and RF
• 18:27
  processing. This guy actually joined the
• 18:30
  company, I think it was back in November of 2021.
• 18:32
  And he's been a senior engineer ever since.
• 18:35
  And so for those who haven't seen it, I definitely recommend
• 18:39
  reading that interview. You know, a friend of mine was
• 18:43
  able, well, a friend of mine found the interview and then
• 18:45
  translated it for me. And then, you know, I shared it
• 18:48
  out with everyone. And I think at some point maybe
• 18:50
  I'll do a space specifically to cover that interview because
• 18:54
  there's so many great Nuggets in there.
• 18:55
  But highly recommend, you know, if you haven't read it to go
• 18:58
  back and read it. It's, it's, it's got a lot of
• 19:01
  great insight and also some competitive insight as well.
• 19:06
  Let's see. So another thing unfortunately
• 19:09
  that happened this past weekend was these massive snowstorms out
• 19:14
  in Northern California. And I did share out this article
• 19:19
  covering how 6 of 15 skiers, unfortunately, you know, 99 have
• 19:23
  parish, but six were rescued and they were able to use their
• 19:27
  global Star SOS messaging to help rescuers find them and
• 19:32
  locate where they were. And so I think it's just a
• 19:35
  another reminder that these services, you know, 100%
• 19:40
  connectivity, no matter where you are, I think perhaps people
• 19:43
  take it for granted that, hey, I don't really need this.
• 19:45
  I don't I'm not going to use it day-to-day.
• 19:47
  And you know, if I'm in a dead zone, then it's OK, I can live
• 19:50
  without Internet. But but that, you know, tragedy
• 19:54
  in particular just highlights the fact that if you have,
• 19:57
  whether it's for you or for friends or family, any loved
• 20:01
  ones, having connectivity is critical because you never know.
• 20:05
  When you're going to be in a situation where you'll need to,
• 20:09
  you know, contact first responders and be in a, you
• 20:12
  know, be in a situation where having connected connectivity is
• 20:17
  it's just in between, you know, life and death.
• 20:18
  And I think that tragedy over the weekend is just a reminder
• 20:23
  for me, especially with small kids, that, you know, once the
• 20:26
  service does roll out, I'm definitely getting it for our
• 20:28
  entire family. And yeah, it's a non negotiable
• 20:32
  type of thing. Whereas again, I think would
• 20:34
  argue otherwise, but at least for me, you know, person who has
• 20:40
  a family, that's something that I'll, I'll get for every family
• 20:43
  member. And then finally, I guess I, I
• 20:46
  wanted to talk about the Q4 update.
• 20:48
  You know, the company set the date for March 2nd and so that's
• 20:53
  a Monday. They're going to report earnings
• 20:54
  after the close. There shouldn't be any surprises
• 20:57
  obviously from a financial perspective because the company
• 20:59
  already pre announced results. They said that they expect
• 21:02
  revenues of 63 to $71,000,000 and gave a range also for
• 21:07
  expected operating expenses. So in that in particular that
• 21:13
  update, you know, I do expect that we'll get an update on the
• 21:18
  production cadence for the composite satellite.
• 21:21
  And so maybe we'll get an update then, if not already by the time
• 21:26
  that earnings update comes. But you know, we should get an
• 21:29
  idea of where they are in production cadence and when they
• 21:32
  expect to send the 1st 2 batches of three satellites down to the
• 21:37
  Cape Canaveral for the Falcon 9 launches.
• 21:40
  I also think we'll probably get some color around Golden Dome.
• 21:44
  There's also some rumblings about potential MNO dependent
• 21:48
  agreements. Maybe we'll get you know an
• 21:50
  update there, maybe there might be some new ones.
• 21:53
  And then anything around non dilutive funding and of course
• 21:56
  Firstnet. I mean I think at this point we
• 21:59
  all know the company in AT&T have a contract in place with
• 22:02
  Firstnet. But then you know when, when
• 22:04
  will they release the details of that.
• 22:07
  So that might be another topic that they'll cover.
• 22:09
  And then of course any color around the company's application
• 22:14
  for U.S. market access with the FCC, which I think as I've said
• 22:18
  before. I think could get approved
• 22:20
  imminently at any point. Now the other thing which I
• 22:23
  would encourage people to do is is send in questions because as
• 22:27
  we all know the company does take questions from retail
• 22:31
  investors first before they move on to sell side analyst.
• 22:33
  But I think in that earnings call, and I know some of you've
• 22:37
  already done this, but I think it'll be, it'd be worth asking
• 22:40
  questions around the data center opportunity in space, because I
• 22:44
  think, you know, the company in the last convertible bond
• 22:47
  issuance hinted at monetizing their underlying technology for
• 22:52
  AI applications. And so that would be a natural
• 22:54
  question to answer or sorry ask. And then I think also anything
• 23:00
  around Golden Dome, you know, production cadence, any, any one
• 23:05
  of these things, I encourage people to ask questions.
• 23:07
  And you know, it'll be, it'll be interesting to see if Morgan
• 23:11
  Stanley, you know, which analyst will join on that call, whether
• 23:14
  it's Adam Jonas or forgot the other, the other analyst name
• 23:19
  recovers the space space sector. But if we get Q&A from either
• 23:22
  one, that would be very telling in terms of potential research
• 23:26
  coverage. And then, of course, if the JP
• 23:28
  Morgan analyst also joins the call as well, that'll be a good
• 23:32
  indication that that they're working on is changing coverage.
• 23:36
  Let me see here. But yeah, that was what I wanted
• 23:39
  to cover quickly. I didn't have, I guess that
• 23:42
  actually was quite a bit, but let me see here.
• 23:45
  Let me see if there's any questions someone's asking.
• 23:53
  What do they plan to do with the new offering?
• 23:55
  I did cover this before. I I think they're accelerating
• 23:59
  in my opinion, I think they're accelerating production for the
• 24:02
  mid band Bluebirds and then also potentially doing something
• 24:06
  around AI data centers. But then you know, they, they
• 24:09
  did outline source use of proceeds there.
• 24:12
  So, you know, I covered this before, so I won't go through it
• 24:15
  in detail again. Also, the person saying how will
• 24:18
  they manage to do 4 launches before Q1 close?
• 24:21
  They will not be doing 4 launches before Q1 close.
• 24:24
  Clearly, you know, they're behind schedule here.
• 24:27
  And so my guess is that we'll get 2 launches, 2 more launches
• 24:31
  before Q1 close, maybe three if we're lucky.
• 24:35
  But so, you know, instead of five, it's going to be 3 to 4
• 24:38
  and then the other, the others are going to spill into Q2,
• 24:42
  which as I said before, you know, I, I think everything that
• 24:47
  the company is doing is difficult, especially, you know,
• 24:50
  for the first time. And so it's going, they're going
• 24:53
  to be methodical and ensure that what you know, when they, when
• 24:59
  they launch satellites and deploy them, they're going to
• 25:01
  get it right the first time. And so at this point, as I've
• 25:05
  said before, you know we're the keyword is inevitability, right?
• 25:10
  And so the company is going to get the consolation up, you
• 25:12
  know, whether they get to 45 or 60 by the end year.
• 25:15
  And my guess is 60 is probably too aggressive, but it's going
• 25:18
  to be closer to 45, but it's going to happen, right.
• 25:21
  And so whether that is on the time frame that is, you know, a
• 25:25
  few weeks off or a few months off, I don't really think it's
• 25:28
  going to matter just given again, you know the services
• 25:31
  head and shoulders above what Starlink or any competitors can
• 25:36
  do. And so at this point, you know,
• 25:38
  it, it requires a bit of patience and just sitting back,
• 25:42
  right. And so I think, you know, for
• 25:46
  me, after they did their convert, you know, when they did
• 25:48
  their convert and heading into the period that that I've laid
• 25:53
  out before where we have, you know, these launches that are
• 25:55
  taking place, I'm really excited, right?
• 25:57
  And so even though the macro environment is is shaky and of
• 26:01
  course the stock is off, I mean, I think we've had like a almost
• 26:04
  40% drawdown from the peak of 130.
• 26:07
  I think we're going to go back there pretty soon.
• 26:09
  And so I'm very confident in that.
• 26:12
  And so I'm not sweating it. And I think I think for folks
• 26:17
  that have had, you know, some difficulty in processing that
• 26:21
  the stock was at 1:30. Now it's at like 81, even
• 26:23
  though, you know, the company raised $1.15 billion and you've
• 26:27
  got all these catalysts ahead of you.
• 26:29
  Just be patient. Like that's the volatility is
• 26:32
  going to happen. You know, if you take any look
• 26:35
  at any number of high beta names, it's been a pretty crummy
• 26:39
  February, which I think Kook was right.
• 26:41
  You know, he was, he was predicting that perhaps
• 26:43
  February's going to be somewhat ugly and it has been.
• 26:46
  But but you know, volatility is for the patient investor and for
• 26:51
  someone who's not on margin, it's your friend, right?
• 26:53
  It allows you to to have great entry points and of course, you
• 26:58
  know, when things get better and, and you, you have rallies,
• 27:01
  you can take advantage of that as well.
• 27:04
  But but yeah, I'm, I'm very excited myself, looking forward
• 27:08
  to hopefully going down to the Cape and seeing some of you guys
• 27:11
  who end up making it. Of course, it's the
• 27:13
  uncertainties things not really sure when it's going to happen,
• 27:17
  but once that date is set, like I'm, yeah, I'm, I'm excited.
• 27:22
  I mean, it's going to be great to see Blue Origin, new Glen and
• 27:25
  Bluebird 7, you know, launch together, which will be a
• 27:28
  tremendous sight. I mean, just seeing the photos
• 27:32
  yesterday of the fairing with AST Space Mobile, you know,
• 27:35
  branded all over it, it's great 'cause I think this is going to
• 27:39
  be a huge event for Blue Origin, New Glen, you know, retrying
• 27:43
  booster, the New Glen booster too, you know, proving that they
• 27:49
  can refurbish these things and launch them again is going to be
• 27:51
  huge. And so the amount of publicity
• 27:53
  and PR attention that's going to come not only for Blue Origin,
• 27:56
  but also for ASD Space Mobile, where people are going to ask,
• 27:59
  oh, what are they launching and what's this company about?
• 28:02
  I think it's going to be a tremendous, you know, coming out
• 28:05
  moment for the company. So anyway, that's my quick
• 28:08
  update for today. Yeah, maybe I'll try to do
• 28:12
  another one this weekend or I guess after Kook's Kook's Sunday
• 28:16
  night update. But yeah, I'm, I guess, I guess
• 28:21
  a reminder, you know, I'm, I'm bullish, I'm looking forward to
• 28:24
  the next two to three weeks. And you know, regardless of what
• 28:28
  the stock price does day-to-day, the noise and obviously there's
• 28:31
  quite a bit of uncertainty out there in the market.
• 28:34
  I think all indications are up into the right.
• 28:37
  And so I'm, I'm very positive and looking forward to the
• 28:40
  launch and, and additional news that's coming out.
• 28:44
  But I will try to do, I'll try to update the Catalyst Monitor
• 28:48
  and I'll, I'll send that out in the next hour or two.
• 28:50
  But, but yeah, there's a lot to look forward to.
• 28:52
  And, and yeah, just remind yourself of the milestones that
• 28:56
  we've achieved, which you'll see in the, the Catalyst monitor
• 28:59
  and, and what's coming because there's quite a bit.
• 29:01
  So anyway, thanks for joining everyone and we'll talk to you
• 29:04
  soon. Take care.
• 29:08
  Thanks for listening to the AST Space Mobile podcast.
• 29:12
  If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the
• 29:15
  podcast, please share it with others, post about it on social
• 29:18
  media, or leave a rating and review.
• 29:20
  To catch all the latest news about AST Space Mobile, make
• 29:24
  sure to subscribe. Thanks again and I'll see you
• 29:27
  next time. We're doing something very, very
• 29:33
  big and actually with this technology we can really affect
• 29:35
  billion lives. AFT Space Mobile is the only
• 29:39
  company that has full technology to deliver cellular mobile
• 29:43
  connectivity directly through space.
• 29:45
  To do every day as much people will just basically turn your
• 29:49
  phone and be seamless, regardless of where you are.
• 29:52
  We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by
• 29:55
  satellite. Our role is to bring this into
• 29:59
  reality, always in partnership with the animal.
• 30:08
  Listen, Waffles.