Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - NBA Midseason Betting Update

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The Favorites - NBA Midseason Betting Update · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. The NBA season
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: is kicking into gear, and there's no better place to
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  Speaker 1: get in on the action than FanDuel. I love betting
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  Speaker 1: Plus FanDuel let's me jump in on the action anytime
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  Speaker 1: with live betting during games. So download the FanDuel app
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• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I am Shad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Michael Padre, professional better from all
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: over the world, Simon Hunter Edooyman, Hello, hot Chad. How's
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: the birthday? Oh man? It was fantastic. I had a
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: great day. Thank you, Thank you for all the love
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: was that? Do you feel very loved? I did? I
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: felt very loved. At the end of the day, my son,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: my sixteen year old son, got me a Chicago Bears
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: trivia book, which was outstanding, and so I made him
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: and my wife and we had some friends over m
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: answer many many questions about Chicago Bears, which was fantastic.
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  Speaker 1: And then um our close friends here in West Hartford.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: One of their daughters, she's an amazing baker. I'm not
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: a big sweet sky, as you guys know. I treat
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: my body like a temple, a lot of exercise, a
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: lot of eating the fruits and nuts and you know, plants.
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  Speaker 1: But she made me a cake that I love. I
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: ate it. I had two slices. It was delicious. It's
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: a great thing. I'm not don know why I'm not,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: you know, living it up like some rich single dude
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: who can just go wherever he wants, whenever he wants,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: and live wherever he needs to live. So there's that.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: If you can get over the feeling of that and
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: the never ending feeling of being alone forever, Chad, life's
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: pretty good. If you can just love yourself, it's it's
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: a good deal. But there are some nights where I'm
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: alone or I'm like, God, I wish I had the
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: wife and kids. And then there's days like today where
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: you know, I just walked down to the beach and
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I just do whatever I want where I'm like, man,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I don't know about this whole wife and kids thing, Chad.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: So it's the constant battle of a man. But yeah,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: made it, made it to Hawaii, brother, So it's gonna
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: be a good, good month. Here. I'm gonna tell you
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: one more story and then we got to bring in
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  Speaker 1: our NBA expert Matt Moore, who hosts the Buckets podcast
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: daily with a rotating cast, and he's trolling me, trolling
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: me chat wearing Chiefs gear. He's trolling the Hello and
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: You wearing Chiefs gear. Today. He's got Sean Little, he's
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: got Jay Money, a whole crew of guys who come
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: on that podcast and le tysoning. We used to through
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: that podcast once or twice a week, and we had
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: to pull off the band aid and go every single
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: day because NBA betting happens every single day. Yeah, Matt
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Moore is everywhere. He's doing videos, he's doing podcasts, he's writing,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: he's breaking news. We're gonna have him on. I highly
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: recommend Buckets podcast. It's just a great listen. Like NBA
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: is a nerd out kind of league, and the guys
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: who cover the NBA and are doing this Buckets podcast
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: are nerding the fuck out, and we're going to nerd
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  Speaker 1: the fuck out on the NBA today. Obviously, massive conversation
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  Speaker 1: about Lebron and the Lakers. All of a sudden, the
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  Speaker 1: Bucks are the top team in the East, up by
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  Speaker 1: a game, I think on the Celtics, the Nuggets. In
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  Speaker 1: Matt Moore's backyard are fantastic, and they've got Nikolayokich, who
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  Speaker 1: could win his third MVP and is averaging a triple double.
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  Speaker 1: But I still don't think the Nuggets are the team
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  Speaker 1: to beat in the West. There is a lot of
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  Speaker 1: ship going on, Simon. Before we get to any of that,
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  Speaker 1: I do need to remind people, as we've done, we've
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: been talking about game Time, the ticketing app. It's the
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: fastest growing ticketing app in the United States. I love
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: game Time. I've talked about it. I genuinely use it.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: I've bought tickets for the Celtics. I've bought tickets for
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: the Knicks and the Mets, and the Cubs and the Phillies,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: a game I went to with Simon. If you're looking
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: to get out to any NBA or NHL game this week,
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: or even a concert, game Time has amazing last minute
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  Speaker 1: deals on tickets to all of these. I'm actually going
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: to open game Time right now from my house here
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: in Connecticut. Look what I see. I see the Big
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: East Women's basketball Tournament taking place starting tomorrow night at
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Mohegan Sun. It is such a good deal. Right now
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I can go. I can see it for not a
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: lot of money. I can tell you that right now.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: So that's how easy it was. No matter where you live,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: download of the Game Time app, get out and have
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: some fun this week. You deserve it, and you can
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Terms apply again. Just download the app and enter code
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off. Download Game Time Today, last
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. One more thing before we
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: bring in Matt Moore Simon. Hearing you talk about, you know,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: being alone versus wife and kids and family, I'll tell
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: you one story. And we've had this guy in the
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: podcast before, my buddy Allan Loebe, who's a very successful
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: screenwriter and there's been in La forever and he's written
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: a lot of big movies that everyone who's listening, you know,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: has heard of. He wrote Wall Street two. He wrote
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: the movie twenty one about the guys who brought down
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Vegas and they were the card counters in Vegas. He
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: wrote the movie Rock of Ages. He's written movies to
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: start with Jennifer Aniston and Jason Bateman. So sang an
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: hour with him one year at the time he had
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  Speaker 1: this beautiful house in the Hollywood Hill and it's January.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: It's late in the day. We had just watched NFL
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  Speaker 1: playoffs all day, we had been drinking. He had made
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: soup with fresh ingredients from the farmer's market. We had
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: a bunch of people over. It's the end of the day.
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  Speaker 1: We're sitting in the hot tub and I say, oh,
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna call my wife, and he goes, man, I
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: wish I had a wife. I look at the guy.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: I go, dude, you're a fucking cliche. You don't want
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: a wife. You're perfectly happy. You're not looking for that.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: You're rich, you got a place in the hills, you're
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: sitting in a hot tub, you're living your life. Don't
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: start thinking you want a wife. It's not for you.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: And maybe maybe Simon, it's not for you, Oh it is.
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  Speaker 1: I'm a romantic type. I'm just going through my phase
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: of went through a heartbreak. Sleep as many girls as
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: I can find the right one. And I think that's
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: how most guys do it, where it's like you know,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: once you find the right one, you know. I just
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: haven't yet, So I doubt it's gonna happen here in Hawaii. Chat.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: I can already tell I'm probably not men for Hawaii.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: I'm very East Coast. I got a little edge to me,
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: so you know, I'm just gonna try and embrace the
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: culture and see where life takes me. But I'm with
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  Speaker 1: your buddy. There's moments jad where you're like, I'm I
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: was on the airplane behind this just new married couple.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: So this woman's kissing her husband every two seconds on
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: this six hour flight. I've never been more happy in
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  Speaker 1: my life to be single. I was dying inside for
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: this guy because I was like, this is a this
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: is awful. But once I got here, I was like,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: you know, this is the most romantic place in the world.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: So I'm telling you, Chad constant battle brother, but let's
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: talk hoops. When you've been married almost twenty five years
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: like me, your wife will not be kissing you every
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  Speaker 1: six seconds, Matt More, Dude, where the fuck do we
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: start with this hoop stuff? Like, I like, I want
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  Speaker 1: to counter. I don't want to talk about Lebron first, Okay,
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  Speaker 1: I want to talk about the Bucks and the Celtics
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  Speaker 1: in the East. Hold on what well, Simon wants to
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  Speaker 1: you know, wanted to talk about the Sixers, and that's
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  Speaker 1: totally fine, by the way, Like the Sixers could be
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  Speaker 1: legit contenders, but they haven't shown it. So what are
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  Speaker 1: we talking about here? Matt Moore, Yeah, I mean, look,
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  Speaker 1: this season is bizarre by a lot of accounts. Talking
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: to people at All Star Weekend, it was kind of funny.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: There's a little bit of like discomfort with the fact
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: that nothing makes sense, Like there's just too much of
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: like I don't know, Like I don't know what's gonna happen,
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  Speaker 1: like who We don't know who, Like the dominant team is.
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  Speaker 1: We don't know who, like the dominant teams are I
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  Speaker 1: think from our perspective, from a betting perspective, like this
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  Speaker 1: is awesome because there's so much that can happen between
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  Speaker 1: now and June. There's so many ways to track the
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  Speaker 1: market to identify, like I like this team, but there's
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: probably gonna be a better spot later, tracking all of
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  Speaker 1: these types of markets to be able to find opportunities
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  Speaker 1: when things are uncertain, because the books are unable right
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: now to be like, yeah, no, it's gonna be like
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  Speaker 1: you know, one team should be a massive favorite in
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  Speaker 1: either conference. I think even now, the markets are a
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: little off. It's been a fascinating season. From a parody perspective,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: I think most casual fans are uncomfortable with it. But
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: I think from a betting perspective, we got a lot
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: of opportunities the Eastern Conference. My big takeaway on the
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Eastern Conference is I gotta see the bracket, like that's
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  Speaker 1: what I got to see because Boston, I think has
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: the advantage over most of the teams that are in it.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: There is one team I think that has an upset potential,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: and that's the Cleveland Cavaliers, who the Celtics beat last night.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: But if the bracket shakes out differently, if it ended
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: today and it was Bucks one, Celtics two six or
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  Speaker 1: three Calves four, now, all of a sudden, especially with
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: where the market is right now FanDuel Bucks number one
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: team in the Eastern Conference, one sixteen in a row,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: and there plus one eighty five getting plus one eighty
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: five on a team that would have home court, that
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: went toe to toe with the Celtics last year without
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Chris Middleton. So you can tell again the markets don't
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: really know what to make of the season, which if
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: you can find some insight that you feel good about
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: from a betting perspective, there's opportunity there. Well, look, it
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: does feel a little bit like what the bookmakers are
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  Speaker 1: identifying with the Celtics, who are also the top overall
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: favorite to win the NBA title is the Celtics have
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: generally been the team fans of favoring all season long.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: That's where their biggest liability is. So they're keeping the
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: number low on the Celtics because if it goes any higher,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: they do think that they're the public team, whereas the
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Bucks have come in kind of sleepily wanting sixteen in
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  Speaker 1: a row. Middleton hasn't played all year, Jannis has been injured.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: You've had Holiday, Yannis and Middleton on the court almost together,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: almost none at all. Middleton hasn't even been himself, so
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: they're pat Conaton hasn't played much like he was injured
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: a lot earlier in the year. This team hasn't even
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: played its best and it's won sixteen in a row. Simon,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: you're shaking your head. Well, I just think it's the
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: same thing as last year. Of the East just has
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: three or four really dominant teams, and they all have
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: their own flaws. I mean, the Sixers have major flaws. Still,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: it's one of those teams where I was with a
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: bunch of pros this weekend. They do not trust the
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Sixers team. They trust the Bucks because they've done it before,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: and they trust the Celtics because the same team went
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: to the finals last year and they think this team
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: might be better than they were last year. So it's
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: just interesting here in perspective right now where I'm trying
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: not to be the homer, but I kind of kind
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: of see the righting on the wall here where the
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: values nine to the Sixers. It seems like the value
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: is what he just talked about. It's in the Bucks
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: and it's in the Celtics. So the Sixers, I think
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: are an interesting talking point because this is one where
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: you got to follow the NBA because of the subtext
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: of what's going on, because it's such a messy, drama filled,
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: nonsensical league, Like it's just the constant nonsense going on.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: So this week The Athletic reported on the worst cap
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: secret in the league, which is that James Harden has
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: a significant interest in going back to Houston this summer.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: The way to breakdown this equation is basically, he signed
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: a short term deal with the Phillies and basically make good. Hey,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: you can upgrade the team. I'll take a discount, but
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna get paid the next year. And this is
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: either a leverage move to make sure that Philadelphia offers
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: him the five year max that he wants, which would
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: be a disastrous contract at his age and usage, by
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: the way, or he does genuinely have like real personal
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: reasons to go back to Houston. He was comfortable there.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: He was essentially a god king there. He likes being there.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: The nightlife opportunities our ideal for James there. The fact
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: that you have this out there that's not good for
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: a team. You don't want this sense of yeah, this
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: is probably the last year, like we tried it, but
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: guys are probably gonna move on, and they're starting to
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: be like a lot of rumblings about what's going to
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: happen with this team long term. So I don't think
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: you can bet Philey. That doesn't mean I think that
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: they're dead in the water if they can get somebody
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: else to knock out Boston. I like the Sixers as
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: an underdog play, Like I actually don't mind the matchup
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: versus Milwaukee. They're probably closer than what the market will
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: show there. They would destroy Cleveland, they would destroy the
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Knicks and that's it. But they can't beat Boston. So
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: those are the kind of things that you're trying to
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: figure out here. Is like, if they can get on
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: a roll or even with all this off court stuff,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: the Sixers can make a run. But as long as
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Boston is in the playoffs, as long as they have
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: not been eliminated, I cannot bet the Sixers. Well, the
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Sixers are such an interesting team because they are the
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: epitome of the NBA drama right and bead. They won't
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: trade Tyree's Maxie. He's an untouchable. Harden has transformed his
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: game to become one of the best po cards in
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: the NBA, one of the best distributors in the NBA.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: He doesn't want to be there anymore. They've got Daryl Morey,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: who is brilliant as a GM, but this team is
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: not anything like what he built that made James Harden
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: the god that he was in Houston. But that was
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: part of the Ben Simmons thing though, Like he just
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: needed to move Ben Simmons and that was by far.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Even looking back now, it's like, I can't comprehend. We
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: got James Harden for Ben Simmons, so slow played the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: whole year tales. Yeah, it was brilliant. That was masterclass.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: That was a masterclass. It was brilliant GMing. Also, look,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: we know Darryl is super smart when it comes to
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: playing percentages. And you know, back during the pandemic days,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: we would do these late night poker games with a
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: lot of talent from ESPN, from from ESPN, from Action,
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: but ESPN people were on it too, and Darryl would
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: come on the game and play like he's legit when
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: it comes to deal making, you know what I mean,
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Like that's as good as it gets, even if he doesn't. Wait.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Daryl very aware of our odds pages that actually network too.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: By the way, Darrell always check it to see where
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: where the sixers probabilities land on the odds as well.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: He's brilliant at that. All right, the West, meanwhile, we've
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: talked about the East. The West. All of a sudden,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Kade comes back last night, has twenty three points. They
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: win places for the Sons. Obviously, the Sons have the
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: shortest odds of all Western Conference teams right now at
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: fandel plus four fifty the Nuggets plus seven fifty, the
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Clippers plus eleven hundreds. So right now it goes Celtics, Bucks, Sons, Nuggets, Clippers.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore, are you buying Sons, Nuggets or Clippers as
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: an NBA champion? So I've already got positions on the
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: Nuggets and Clippers from preseason. I grabbed them earlier, longer numbers,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: thinking that there was no way that the Clippers number
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: would would not go down like obviously, and yeah, I've
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: lost CLV on that, which is annoying. The Clippers are annoying.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: I just want to state that for the record on
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: this podcast. The Suns I grabbed the minute that Kyrie
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: Irving requested a trade before Kevin Durant stuff had come out,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: because we had reported over the summer. Like we reported
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: when the Kyrie stuff came out, one of the first
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: things that I was writing about was, Hey, the Suns
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: are like this is their guy. And why I reported
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: throughout the year like in all of our Intel reports,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: it was the Suns are looking for a bigger move.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: It was really funny listening to the aftermath of the
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Katie trade listening to people around the league, because they
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: would have these conversations with Phoenix about various players to
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: act because the Suns didn't know if Katie was going
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: to happen. But they would have these conversations about possible
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: trades and they would be like, they seem really interested,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: but the Suns would always end it with, Okay, we'll
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: get back to you. We're checking on some other stuff,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: but don't do anything before coming back to us. And
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: the reason they were doing that is they were waiting
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: for Kate. They lined up everything in the event that
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: Durant was not available, and then Durant became available and
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: they pounced on it, and they would not make a
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: move to limit their trade flexibility until Kevin Durant was
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent off the table. It was a really
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: good job by their intel department of recognizing in advance
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: that the Kyro irving extension thing is going to be
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: a problem, that this could implode midseason. So like, got
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: to credit the Suns a lot with that as far
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: as the value goes, Yeah, go ahead, what does that mean,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Intel department. I've never heard that phrase for NBA before. Okay,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: So there's this idea that the scouts in the NBA
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: that what they do is like they go to games
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: and then they write down all the plays and they
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: do assessments on like you have your personnel scouts, your
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: pro scouts, and like your college scouts. Right, the biggest
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: value that those guys get is talking to other scouts,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: other video guys, people they know in the league, and
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: media gathering intel. The best organizations, not all of them,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: I found, but the best organizations actually have databases where
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: all this stuff goes into. So they dig and they dig,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: and they dig and they dig and they dig, and
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: they hear all of these little bits of pieces of
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: information and then you use that in reference to what
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: you're doing. I don't know if the Suns have that database.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know that well enough. But there is like
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: the Intel department of what are teams, how are teams performing?
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: And there's the Intel department of our guys happy, what
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: do they want in contract? That's where you hear a
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: lot of numbers about what guys want in extensions, etc.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: And all of that stuff is in my opinion, way
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: more valuable than all of the stuff about the basketball side.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: A guy could be shooting terribly from the field or
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: not fitting in with a system and be great on
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: the next team he goes because he's not happy there
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: and he would be happy somewhere else, especially if he
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: gets paid. So like, the league operates on these two
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: simultaneous levels of the basketball side and then this underground
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: intel side, which is a lot of like hearing rumors
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: and trying to gather as much like did you hear
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: this from multiple places or not? That's the information that
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: eventually gets distributed out in part, not all the time.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Some of it's direct, but a lot of that's what
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: winds up getting reported by various reporters around the league.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Oh well, that is new information to me, and that
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: is cool to think about. There are the encore reports,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: and then there is this secret you know, CIA file
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: of all the little notes and information that is happening
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: and the rumors that are being traded amongst the bureaucracy
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: of the NBA to help make decisions. And the fact
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: the Suns used it so well to their advantage. That's
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: fucking next level shit right there. That's the difference between
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: a good organization and organization that can't shoot straight. Yeah,
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, look a lot of it. You know, you
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: talk to the GMS and they'll say, I don't even
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: pay attention to the database fall because I don't know
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: how much of it's just complete nonsense. I just don't
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: know if any of it's real, right, There's a lot
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: of information swapping that goes on the league, and a
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: lot of gems are just like, I don't know how
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: much of it is real. I know what I've talked
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: to teams about and that's about it. But if you're
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: trying to put together, especially these bigger pieces, you need
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: to keep an any ear out for. Not only it's
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: not just stuff like oh yeah, they're looking for this,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: or they want this type of player, or this guy
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: wants an extension. It's also like, hey, you know, he
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: was a lot more like he's got family in this
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: town and it turns out he's really missing them, or
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: like one of the pieces on Bradley Beale. A lot
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: of the reason that there wasn't like a big push
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: for Bradley Bale a few years ago is during the pandemic,
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: it was pretty well known that Bill had no interest
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: in moving during the pandemic, that he did not want
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: to relocate during the pandemic, and that change the way
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: that the league in terms of how many calls they
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: were generating because the word kind of gotten now, like, hey,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: Bradley doesn't have any interest in getting moved right now,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: and that changes the course of how these conversations go. Man,
• 21:48
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  Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. All right, I cut you
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: off before you were you were going into a conversation
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: about the Western Conference and the Suns and their place
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: in the Western Conference and now that they have maneuvered
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: to get KD on the roster. Yeah, so we all
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden action. It was me and Joe
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: d'ilera and Brandon Anderson. We all kind of talked about
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: the initial reaction to the trade, and it was pretty predictable, right,
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: like the Suns get hammered and they get pushed and
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: pushed and pushed, and as a consequence, like the Nuggets
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: go down, and that was a pretty good spot to
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: bet the Nuggets. And we said like, look, this is
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: going to equilib realize there will be a better chance
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: to bet the Suns later. I don't think it's it's
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: now yet because Katie just came back. They won their
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: first game, he goes off for twenty plus points in
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: less than thirty minutes. Last night, I was on the
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: bet stream for that for Action Network. You looked great.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: The defense was better than we expected, but they were
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: also planned Charlotte. So like, there's gonna be a low
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: point here where the Suns like struggle a little bit.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: This team is not like the twenty seventeen Warriors. Are
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: they the best team in the Western Conference? They could
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: very well be, Like this may be one of those
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: things like I remember last year, like Simon was like,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: what are we doing here? It's the Warriors? Like what
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: are we doing here? Like this that may just be
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: what we're we wind up in when we get into
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, like what are we doing here? It's the Suns.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: I've look back at the history though, of how the
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: odds kind of shift before the playoffs start. It's rare
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get a bad number on the eventual champion
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: before the playoffs start relative to what you're gonna get
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: by conference finals or even second round. Like you got
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: some time to see how Phoenix shapes up versus some
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: actual competition. I think there's some value I've bet Suns
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Celtics as a finals matchup. I've bet Suns Bucks as
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: a finals matchup to get those numbers added, you know,
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: to what I've already got. But I don't think that
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: there's necessarily a lot of value in betting Phoenix right now.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's like you gotta get it on
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: this number at plus two thirty to win the West
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: at fandel. The bigger thing here is that trying to
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: find a long shot is really difficult because this year
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: is extremely messy when it comes to historical trends about
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: how you got to be good in the regular season
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: versus teams like the Warriors, defending champions who have been
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: so good, who have been basically telling us for sixty games,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: were not very good, even when we have Steph Curry.
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: It's a mess out there. And that's why I think
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: the Nuggets are one of the teams that a lot
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: the sharpest have gravitated towards it. They've got the most
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: handle at several books, because I think they're the one
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: team that everyone can kind of go like, at least
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: I know that they're good. They may not get there,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: but at least I can trust them more than I
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: can a lot of these other teams for various reasons.
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if they trust them though, Like
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: I was with these groups. We had a bunch of
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: meetings these past weekends and the same guy as that
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: turned on like the Golden State last year. It's just like,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: if Golden State's healthy, they're gonna be the best team
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: men into the playoffs. And that was really flucid them
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: attend to one heading into the playoffs. That's really rare.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: My team's doubted that much. I think it's what you
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: talked about. It's they're not They weren't the new sexy thing.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: And this is a crazy stuff about basketball, is these guys,
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: like I think Matt was just touching on where people
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: just know what's gonna happen, like people that are in
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: this league and things are set up years in advance.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: So these guys knew in the summer that if there
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: was any little thing with that Brooklyn thing, Katie was
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: going to the Suns. Apparently he was gonna go to
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: the Suns in August, but that fell through. They held
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: all to him because they're like, you know, we got
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: Kyries back, we can make this work. So to me,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: what Matt saying is so true of like these teams
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: already had this deal in place months ago, like they're
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: they're literally way ahead of everyone else in the public
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: perception of like these deals are already in place, that
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: there's waiting for the next shoe to drop. And you know,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: these guys were over the Kings this summer, like that
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: was their team, the Kings. All I heard all summer
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: was the Kings. And again I don't know basketball, and
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: I was like, I'm not putting money on the Kings.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: I'll put money on them to go over their win total,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not putting money on them to win a championship
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: because to me, that felt like a stupid bet where
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: they don't have this superstar, right, They're not gonna win
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: a championship come the end of the year because you
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: need that superstar. You need a KD in that final
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: two minutes where you can't run some plays all right,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: there's no plays that are gonna work, Like these guys
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: are too good. So the Kings, think, to me, is
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: interesting where guys are still on that, Matt, I would
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: love to hear your view on it, where you know
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: these guys I'm talking to they have the Kings at
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: say they got ten thousand dollars down, it's like ten
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: thousand and win three hundred thousand if they win the championship.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: So I'm interested to hear your perspective of can they
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: really go to Denver and that high altitude come playoff
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: time and really take down Jokich? Like is this a
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: team that really can make a playoff runner? Is that
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: just one of those bets that's dead? Like is it
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: really Clippers Denver? And then yes, we can throw the
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: suns in there, of course, but is that really it?
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: In the West, do you feel like I mean a
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: lot of this I think is that the market is
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: so much there's this combination that happens, like talking to
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: bookmakers about how they're certain markets they're just never going
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: to generate enough handle, Like Memphis is never going to
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: generate enough handle, right, That's why their win total is
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: always lower than it needs to be. Milwaukee's another one
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: like this is a good example. The Kings right now
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: have a four game lead in the lost column with
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: less than twenty to play. That's a big lead, and
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: they have had this good surge their plus one eighty
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: just to win the division. Because that's how much the
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: like the Sons. They've got Katie and the Sons can
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: definitely catch it right, Like it's not four is not impossible,
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: but it's higher than most people think. The Kings are interesting.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: I was actually asking some folks about it this week.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: I was throwing that name around and trying to figure out, like,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: are we sure that they're dead in the water. The
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: problem really is that, like they are so bad defensively,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: and Denver has the perception of being bad defensively. But
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: since or December seventh, so almost we're coming up on
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: three months of basketball, December has been the Nuggets have
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: been top ten in defense, Like they righted the ship there,
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: which is why the value on them is pretty good
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: because it looks like they're much worse defensively than they are.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: But the Kings, it's all offense, and they're versatile and
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: they have a lot of options. They're very well coached.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: I think Mike Brown is like Mike Brown's moved to
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: be the favorite for coach a year in the market.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: That makes a lot of sense. He was a good
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: bet like a month ago when people were still like
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: really the Kings, and it's like, yeah, really the Kings
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: what I will say is like I think the Kings
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: are gonna be a great bet series by series because
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: they're probably going to hang closer than teams than people
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: expect them to. Even versus Denver, they'll probably be competitive.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: Like in the first round series versus Dallas, Dallas would
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: probably be the favorite and Dallas would probably wind up
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: getting the majority of the money. Kyrie and Luca and
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: dead like they've been there versus like the Mavericks are
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: a mess then they're so badly coached, and the home
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: court advantage that Sacramento is gonna have is gonna be
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: through the roof. Like I'm trying to figure out if
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: I can get out to Sacramento for that first playoff
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: game to be in the building. There's something like that,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: because it's gonna be such an insane experience there. So, like,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: I think there's value in Sacramento, but I don't want
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: to go all the way to championship because I do
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: think there's a point where you get there, like Dallas
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: last year when they got to the Warriors and it
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: was like you're not in this class, Like you beat
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: a very good Phoenix team that we thought was in
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: this class, but they might have gotten COVID, but when
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: you get to like the conference finals, you're just not
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: at that level. That's how I feel about Sacramento. But
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be value on them betting them
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: series by series, especially on the wind spread lines. They're
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: like a year or two early. Right. That's the thing.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: It's a year or two early, right. Yep? How are
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: we glossing over what Simon said about the Warriors and
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: Matt what you said about the Warriors who at this
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: point to win the NBA title, their odds are seventeen
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: to one. You've said through sixty games when Steph is played,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: they even then haven't been very good. Yet do we
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: give them such a benefit of the doubt that you
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: still put some money? Excuse me, put some money on
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: them at seventeen to one. I held out on Golden State.
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: I held out on them the entire year until All
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Star Break. I was like, no, I was like this team.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Simon mentioned this when they have their starters, their starting
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: lineup of Kavan Looney, Steph Curry, Clay Thompson, Draymond Greene,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Andrew Wiggins. That five man lineup has the best net
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: rating of any five man lineup in the league minimum
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: one hundred minutes. If you want to know, like, what
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: does that mean? They kick ass more than any other
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: teams five man lineup in the league. That's the best
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: way I could describe it. So they're still extremely dangerous.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: The problem is we go against some historical trends which
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: have just been tried and true in the NBA only
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: in the last twenty years, no team below a three
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: seed has won the NBA Championship. Like that matters. The
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: Warrior's not going to get to a top three seed.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: In the last twenty years, no team with a below
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: five hundred road record has won the NBA Championship. No
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: team the Warriors are one of the worst teams on
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: the road. It is inexplicable how bad they are, Like
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: they go from world beaters at home to hot garbage
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: water when they are on the road. And that differential
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: is really important here because now we've got another layer,
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: which is all right, let's say that they get past
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: they somehow get past Phoenix, which I think is a
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: pretty good matchup for them, Like they actually match up
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: pretty well with Phoenix, and they go to Denver and
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: you're like, well, it's the Warriors versus Denver. Come on,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: the Warriors are coming out of this. I would tend
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: to agree with that, right and you go and the
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: counter would be, well, what if they're on the road,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: and Simon kind of speak to this. There's always been
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: this thing with the Nuggets and the Jazz, which is
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: that their regular season home court advantage is way higher
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: than their playoff home court advantage because teams have more
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: time to acclimate to altitude and the travel isn't is bad.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: So like now your home court advantages is kind of
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: is kind of less. But we have to ask hers,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: like this is where you're two with the Warriors. Is
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: they have told us all year for sixty games and
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: you could say, but STEP's been out. Even when Steff
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: was in there, they were a five hundred team, Like
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: this is not like a great team when Steph plays,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: they're a great team in these staff minutes where he
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: plays with that five guys and everything else is mediocre.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: And so trying to figure out that differential, I don't know,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: like is their value on them? Could they could they
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: be the exception to the rule in a weird year? Yeah,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: do you want to bet on an outlier? Maybe it
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: depends on what you're what percentage you put that at
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: versus the ev Like trying to figure those equations out
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: has been my life since All Star Break, and I
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: gotta be honest with you, I still don't have an answer.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: I can't rule out the Warriors. I'm in this princess
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: bride situation. I can't drink the wine in front of him.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: I can't drink the wine in front of me. That's
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: so good. I love that. It's a great analogy. Um,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: it's so interesting. The Warriors plus seventeen hundred, Sacramento Kings
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: are significantly higher. I mean, look, just to win the conference, right,
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: So the Warriors plus eight hundred, the King's fifty five
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: hundred just to win the West. Yeah, at Like if
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: you ask me, like, is that number accurate? No? Like
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: that number is not accurate. Right, they get past Dallas
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: and nicolea Yoki suffers an injury, the Sacramento Kings are
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: going to the conference finals. That's happening. Like I expected
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: to be four or five Kings mavericks, because I do
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: kind of think the Suns might wind up catching them,
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Like I've got them projected to catch them. It's getting
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: real close. Even if the Kings are in the three
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: six right Memphis, I have We've been talking about how
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: I don't believe in Memphis. We talked about it last
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: year and we profited on it on buckets. We've talked
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: about it this year, Like, Memphis is a no bet
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: for me. If it's two three Memphis versus the Kings.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: If the Kings somehow get like a three six Dallas
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: matchup and then Memphis, then I've got to look at
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: the Kings. I'll still get this kind of a number.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Then I would be betting the Kings because I would
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: be able to hedge them in a conference finals and
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: bet the other way and still profit huge. Like that
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: would be the position that I would take. Is like,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: if the Kings wind up in a bracket where it's
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: Memphis in two, Kings in three, their face in the
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: MAVs in the first round, and the Grizzlies get a
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: non Lakers Warriors matchup in the first round, they get Wolves,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Blazers and Pelicans. Whoever, if the Kings don't have to
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: get to avoid the Suns and the Nuggets and the
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Clippers and all these other teams, the Kings can absolutely
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: make a run to the Conference finals. That is very
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: much on the board. I have two things I want
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: us to discuss before we get out of here. They're
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: gonna be and I'm gonna preview them for you. One,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: I feel like we've talked about a lot of different
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: matchup bets, but we haven't nailed who's the one NBA
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Finals best value futures bet to make today? So start
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: thinking about that. But before we get to that, we
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: gotta talk Lakers like train wreck of a season, train
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: wreck of a team, bad roster management, trades haven't worked out,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Pat Bev gone, Russell Westbrook gone, Lebron now heard Anthony
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Davis in and out? Forget about now? What is the
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: future of this team? So today there's a report that
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Lebron is not going to require surgery. That's significant because
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: there was a lot of like worrying reports early on.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: The win last night was a must win for them
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: for their chances to make the playoffs. Are plus two
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: twenty five. We're talking about the future of the Lakers.
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: One of the things that is yet to be resolved
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: is that is the tension between Lebron his agency Clutch,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: who represents over half of the nut of the Lakers
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: roster in the front office and ownership, which resisted trading
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: picks because of concerns about limiting their future flexibility. The
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: other problem we have is that there's eventually going to
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: just come to the point where Lebron has missed enough time.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know how he doesn't reach the conclusion I
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: can't have Anthony Davis is my number two because he
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: and I are going to miss enough time together. Like,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: Lebron has to take an honest look at how many
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: games he's missed over the last four seasons. Like he's
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: missed a lot of time, which is understandable. The man's old, Like,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: give the man a break. He should be able to
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: take some time off. That said, you can't have that
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: be the situation when you were in the prime rising superstar,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: top seventy five player quote unquote, it always misses this
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: many games and is dated, Davis, You just you can't
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: do it. And like that's where I hear a lot
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: of people in the league asking questions, is like are
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: they really like they haven't opened him up for trade tucks,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: they haven't made them available teams with call and they've
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: been like we're not interested. But like the long term
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: question is can you try hair and Russell Westbrook as
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: the kind of buffer to keep that team afloat? Like, okay,
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: even if Davis and Lebron missed time, Russell be there
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: with one of the other ones. And then there was
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: times where both of those guys were out and Russ
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: couldn't keep them afloat, and Russ made them overall worse.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: So can you get another guy? Can you get a
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: Bradley Beale for some sort of really terrible package. Can
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: you pull off a pal Gasol type deal for a
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: Bradley Beal? I think it's pretty questionable, But I do
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: think that the bigger question that you have to ask
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: is if they're going to ride out the Lebron era
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: and Lebron's going to continue to apply the pressure that
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: he and Clutch have in this power struggle with ownership,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: you have to ask the question of is the solve
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: for this trading Anthony Davis for a cast of characters
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: that is more reliable in playing all eighty two or
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: at least the majority of them. That, to me is
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: the long term question. Isn't it fair to say though
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: that I don't know if ad hates Lebron but he
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: doesn't like them. Like that whole thing of him sitting
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: there when Lebron broke the scoring record, that was the
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: weirdest thing ever. If I'm again, if me and Chat
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: are doing this for years and this guy has the
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: most podcast minutes ever recorded, I wouldn't sit there sulking,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: pissed off. I'd celebrate the guy. It just felt like
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: that was very human moment of something's going on with
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: those two in the locker room, like a week or
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: week or two before that, and when that happened, he
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: did not look like someone that was happy for Lebron.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: He looked like someone that was just like God, I
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: am so sick tired of this being the Lebron James show.
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: So to me, that's why didn't even bring them up.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: They're just a team I wouldn't touch because it doesn't
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: seem like they have the chemistry at all. It just
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: seems like very bad vibes coming out of the Lakers. Yeah.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, the trade definitely helped them. They're a
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: better team they have. I made this comment on Twitter, like, hey,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: it's funny when you have actual NBA players to a roster,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: they look better. They can they can figure this out
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: because Lebron is that guy, like he's still that guy.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: He's still so good when he's available, it's incredible. And
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Davis has these moments where you know, he's has stretch
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: of the season when people were like, is he the MVP?
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: And we laughed at that in buckets, but like, you know,
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: he still has these stretches. They can make the run,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: but we're talking about what's the probability of that happening.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: And as far as the Davis stuff goes, I think
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: it's really complicated. This is where everyone kind of winds
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: up and when they're in the spot. Chris Bosh had
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: this too, when you're that guy and you're supposed to
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: be the defensive anchor and when the Lakers lose, you're
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: the guy that's responsible. And when the Lakers win, Lebron's
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: that's responsible. And there was a lot of talk when
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: Davis was traded that that's what he wanted, is he
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: didn't want to have to be like out front handling
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: all of the pressure and the weight and the responsibilities
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: that like Lebron would be able to provide that for
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: him and he could just thrive it. And they want
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: a championship like it worked, but now over time you're
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: seeing like how hard this is when when Lebron's out,
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: it's like, come on, ady can't get on the floor
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: and Davis is battling his body always. I think there's
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: probably some tension with the team with Lebron and ADI
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: just about like James has to be like, you can't
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: expect me to play seventy two, Like I'm thirty eight.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: You cannot expect this of me, and Davis being like
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: what do you want me to do? I'm injured, Like
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: I can't help that, And that causes I think a
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: lot of tension because when they're together, they're pretty good.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: They're not great, but they're pretty good, and that's probably
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: good enough to make the playoffs. And if you get
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: into a you know, a series versus the Nuggets where
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: everyone there's there is a prevailing thought the Nuggets are
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: kind of fraudish. Maybe they can make a run. I
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: don't think the value is enough there, Like I still
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: kind of look at it and go, I just don't
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: think this team is very good. I do they even
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: with Lebron at a diminished state, even as good as
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: he is, that's not good enough. And I can't trust
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: that Davis is going to stay healthy for the run
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: they had. They had a rest day schedule for him
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: last night. They won that game, thankfully, But like you,
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: you can't have a rest day right now if you're healthy,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: like you gotta go, like you guys are in twelfth place,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: Like there's gotta be some urgency here and you're not
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: seeing that with from either of the LA teams. All right,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: Matt Moore, you can give us one NBA future value
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: play as of today. Who's it going to be? We
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: get the Bucks a plus four forty? What are we doing?
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Like cold could have beaten the Celtics last year Chris
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: Milton was healthy, They got the number one defense. The
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: thing I'll say about the Bucks, get your money in early,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: because I know this from the last four years of experience.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Betting them series by series is torture. And I can
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: tell you statistics to back this up, but I'll just
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: give you the basics here. They miss more open shots
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: than anyone else in the league in the playoffs. It's
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: just they just missed them. Whether it's a product or
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: the offense or the personnel, they clank shots that should
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: go in well generated offense. Create the open look clank,
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: they just don't go in. It's gonna be a grind,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be tough, it's gonna be difficult. But at
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: plus four or forty you get arguably the best player
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: in the league in Janisan and compo and elite defense.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: Holiday has been fantastic. Bruke Lopez is the best rim
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: protector in the league outside of Jaren Jackson. They've got
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: better deaf now with Jay Crowder and Joe Ingles. They're
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: well coached, They've been there before. Milwaukee Bucks. Plus four
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: or forty is a ridiculous price. That's the best price
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: on the board right now for the title. All right,
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: dare you have it? Matt Moore hosted the Buckets podcast,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: which is fantastic. Also one of the best insiders covering
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: the NBA today. The man knows the league inside out.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: He's his own intelligence department and he's here. My wife disagrees,
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: working at the Action Networkers. How lucky are we? Matt Moore,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter in Hawaii, Matt Mitchell in a basement in Milwaukee,
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: firing away in the box plus four forty. I'm Chad Noman.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume podcast
• 44:18
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• 44:24
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• 44:39
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