Latest / Closing Market Report / May 29 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260529 The May 29, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report centers on agricultural commodity trends and the Midwestern weather outlook. Market analyst Mike Zuzolo notes that while wheat, cattle, and corn faced downward pressure from weak weekly export sales and shifting geopolitical conditions, soybean oil demonstrated strong performance driven by favorable crush margins, which helped stabilize the broader soybean market. Looking ahead, Zuzolo suggests that Northern Hemisphere weather uncertainties and the upcoming wheat harvest could introduce upward market potential in the latter half of June. On the agronomic front, meteorologist Eric Snodgrass explains that fluctuating spring temperatures caused atypical early corn root development in some fields he visit in the upper Midwest. He highlights a current warming trend in the Corn Belt, forecasting a generally drier June that will allow crops to accumulate essential Growing Degree Days, followed by a potentially wetter July. The broadcast also outlines upcoming University of Illinois extension events, including the Small Grains Field Day, the Weed Science Field Research Tour, and the "Sustaining Farm Legacy" series. - Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com - Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant university in Urbana, Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 29th day of May 2026. I'm Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzolo; he's at GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. I'll preview for you some upcoming field days at the University of Illinois, and then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Eric Snodgrass at Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. If you can stay with us for the whole of the hour, you'll hear all of our Commodity Week program on our home station. If not, many of these radio stations carry it over the weekend, and of course, it's up online in its entirety at WILLAg.org right now. Todd Gleason: July corn for the day settled at 4.46, 9 lower. December down 7 and a quarter at 4.75. July beans 7 and three-quarters lower, finished at 11.86 and three-quarters. November at 11.90, down 4 cents. Wheat futures were off 13 and a half for the day. 01:03 Ag Markets with Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com Todd Gleason: Mike Zuzolo at GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hello, Mike. Thanks for being with us. How are you doing on this Friday? Mike Zuzolo: We're doing fine, Todd. Thank you for asking. It's been a good week, a busy week. I wish the markets could have done a little bit better, but, you know, it's early yet. We're running into the end of the month here with some profit-taking probably really coming out in full force with some of the fundamentals that we've been dealing with this week. Todd Gleason: Let's begin with the beginning of the week or the first four days of the week, and deal with today a little separately because there are things that are happening still today as it relates to global and geopolitics. So earlier in the week, what were your expectations? Mike Zuzolo: My expectations were that if the crude oil market continued to go higher and the bond market behaved itself, we would find, especially after the continuation of the erosion of the wheat crop on the progress report Tuesday afternoon, that we would have a big move to the upside potentially and bring us back to within earshot of those major highs that we had pulled back from a couple of weeks ago. We were kind of on a toggle point, technically speaking, and sentiment and momentum-wise, to do just that. In other words, we needed some good news; we got some good news. The market didn't take that opportunity, and you could see that situation develop as the week progressed. The other thing that I think was surprising to me until we got to Friday's trade the rest of the week was we continued to see the soybean oil really fight against and win against a weaker crude oil market. But we also saw the product markets, the RBOB and the heating oil diesel markets, stand up very, very well. So we saw a soybean oil market to many that shifted from looking at just the crude oil market to moving over and looking more at the product markets. And that was the real bright spot, not just early in the week, but all the way through into Friday's close. And that was a really big piece of the puzzle because it could have been a lot worse, I think, this week, had it not been for the soybean oil and it being able to hold up the beans and not allowing the corn and wheat to fall even more. Todd Gleason: Is it just the idea that the planet is going to look for more biomass-based fuels? Mike Zuzolo: Yeah, I think so. I mean, this is where, when you look at some of the big moves year-to-date, you look at bean oil, for instance, we're still up even after Friday's close, or with Friday's close with it being a strong day, getting back up to around 77.60 and getting close to that 78.50 high made earlier this month, which was roughly a two-year high, if I remember right. We're still up about 61% in the soybean oil. If you look at the RBOB, we're up still 81%, and the heating oil futures, we're up about 67%, whereas in the crude oil market, we're up now just under 52% going into the end of the week and end of the month trade. That would be year-to-date. So I think it was mostly about the continuation of the crush margins heading nearly $4 a bushel as we got to Friday's close, and that just kept the power going on the bean oil market. Todd Gleason: The President has apparently retreated to the Situation Room to consider all the things that have happened in the last 24 hours, and part of the last couple of days of the week related to Iran and a potential deal, a memorandum of understanding that he is considering. How did that play out in the marketplace last night and today? Mike Zuzolo: Yeah, this is a market that clearly is saying by the spread price action—and I think the weekly export sales had something to do with this too, so I want to kind of give you a two-fold answer. That the weekly export sales, and the extra soybean export sales reported Friday morning, did nothing to give us a feeling that the US-China trade in agriculture is back on track, especially with the negative 807,000-plus weekly export sale number in the wheat. And so wheat, cattle, and corn really took the export sales negatively. That doesn't mean the beans didn't. We see the old crop, new crop spread, the July-Nov bean spread, now at a carrying charge for the first time going all the way back to mid, if not early 2025, 2026. Well, we've never been in a carrying charge market in 2026. And so getting back to the energy side and the President, what really surprised me this week was the way the market decided that, both in terms of wheat and crude oil, the supply is no longer falling faster than demand. They clearly think that the demand has been rationed enough or the supply is coming up. And that's a very big surprise to me because it's going to take weeks, if not a month or two, to get the Strait of Hormuz really open again because we know that mines have been laid at this point. And so to me, it was really a lot about the funds, not the fundamentals still when it comes to the wheat and the crude oil. I say that gingerly with the export sales being so negative in the wheat and the trade talking about excess supplies in Russia and excess supplies in other areas. I know that's out there, but I still think there is a ton of weather and tight supply short crop situations that we're going to have to work through in June. Todd Gleason: Because this was double-edged with the end of the month probably some profit-taking particularly today, and then crude oil coming off its highs and moving below $100 and into that $90 range now. Do you think that next week will show a better marketplace? Mike Zuzolo: You know, this is where I don't like the way we closed on Friday with the end of the month, as you said, Todd, but we are on major trendline support on a monthly crude oil basis, and we are on major trendline supports, if not hitting them and eating into them a little bit on Friday's close, in corn, beans, soft red wheat, and close to doing the same thing in hard red wheat on the weekly charts. And so I'm going to say this is still a correction, and I'm going to say we're still in an uptrend. And I say that especially given that the Northern Hemisphere weather is still very much a question mark, whether it's Spain, France, Poland, Romania, the Black Sea region. We've got issues in Center-West Brazil as well that I think the market is going to have to contend with in June. What I told clients late Friday as they called in at the end of the week, I said I'm not sure it's going to come back right away next week, but I think the second half of June when we know more about the wheat harvest, we know about the WASDE, and we get ready for the new acreage numbers from USDA, and we figure out whether we've got a weather market heading into July 4th, it seemed to me that second half of June has got more to the upside potential given this uncertainty. Todd Gleason: Thank you much. I appreciate it. Mike Zuzolo: Thank you, sir. Todd Gleason: That's Mike Zuzolo, he's with GlobalCommResearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Todd Gleason: June is a busy month for the University of Illinois. You can join us for the Small Grains Field Day on the 4th. That's next Thursday. Meet at the Agronomy Seed House on South Wright Street. Get an up-close look at wheat and oat research, learn about disease management, variety selection, and oat/pea intercropping from Illinois professors. The tour concludes at 12:30 PM, followed by a barbecue. Search Illinois Small Grains Field Day to register. Then, on the 24th of June, you can visit us for the Weed Science Field Research Tour. The U of I will host that day at the Clem Farm. Registration opens at 8:00 AM; the tour begins at 9:00. You'll review corn and soybean herbicide programs, observe research plots, and evaluate new agricultural products throughout the morning. A $10 fee covers the field tour book, refreshments, and a boxed lunch. Large groups should notify organizers in advance for meal planning. Search Illinois Weed Science Field Research Day for more information. Finally, U of I Extension and the Illinois Farm Bureau will partner together for a focus on the future "Sustaining Farm Legacy" series across the state. Attendees will hear practical updates on succession planning, farm economics, the farm bill, and market conditions. The next event is June 30 in Sycamore at the DeKalb County Farm Bureau building. Register today for that event at go.illinois.edu/farmlegacy. 10:23 Ag Weather with Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions.com Todd Gleason: Let's take a look now at the weather forecast for the Corn Belt. I think I'd like to stay inside the Corn Belt, really, Eric Snodgrass today from Nutrien Ag Solutions. We're getting to that point where it's really kind of important. And this spring has been long, I guess, and a little on the unique side. It's been fantastic, frankly, a lot of it. Although farmers might argue that, trying to get their crop planted because of rainfall in the middle part of that. So are we still in a unique situation as it relates to the weather? Eric Snodgrass: Well, I think we are in two regards. You're right. You know, I was talking to some guys up in Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, and remember how mild it was back in April, right? We had this really warm spell, and some guys just went out and went after it. Soil temps were up, but they had a problem in that it got cool quickly right after that at the beginning of May. And so it was interesting to look at the way some of the corn was growing in that it was actually chasing heat, and it was actually warmer in the soil, down about four to five inches, than it was in the atmosphere. So it got this weird-looking kink to the root structure as the plant was trying to grow. So that flip-flop in temperatures made folks that really went after it early maybe have some issues with their stand versus some that planted at the beginning of May and just saw the more steady increase in temperatures, which we're in right now, maybe giving us a more even look at things. So very interesting to see that across the Corn Belt. You know, the other thing that is unique right now is the heat we're in because of what's going on out West. So we have a deep, deep upper-level low here on Friday, still spinning over the Western states. And why it's so unique is it's actually pushing the rain through the Pacific Northwest out of the East rather than out of the West. So the typical rain shadow areas, like the interior basins of the Northwest, they are now the places getting all the flooding rains, and the windward side of those mountains, which faced to the West, are dry. Very, very interesting. But that's what's helping bring in this kind of relatively short-lived but decently long enough period of warmer temperatures into our area, which we need; we really need to get caught up on GDDs here. Todd Gleason: Well, that will help, but it will have producers and others asking the question, "Will we get rain in June?" It's early to do that, it's not quite June yet, but they're going to ask that question. Eric Snodgrass: Well, it's one of my favorite things about my job, Todd, is that within like the same couple of days, I'll have people begging for rain and then begging to shut it off, and then begging for it to come back. You know, it's like, okay, pick one, let's just—and that's just it. We had a lot of rain. We were quite cool. It was hard to get in, and then it opened up, we enjoyed it for several days, and now we're like, wait a minute, we've kind of been without decent rain now for a while. In fact, parts of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Southern Wisconsin, I mean, we've been so dry that, you know, the other day Andrew Pritchard, my colleague and also, you know, does the weather in the mornings on WILL, we were out looking at dust devils going across the fields. It was just amazing to see how quickly things can change. All that is to say, yes, we are still in this drier pattern for the short term, but there are chances of rain beginning to improve, but it's not going to be anytime soon. It's coming later into next week once we do start the month of June. But I want to be cautious with this. When we look back at all of the things that are taking shape globally right now that are affecting our weather patterns, specifically how warm the Pacific is, also what's going on with our El Niño, most of those point toward drier risks for parts of June. Now that's not a bad thing, to be drier and warmer in June for our crops, but we always want to worry, like, well, if we didn't get it all in June, are we going to get the rain in the month of July? So I just want to tell you that based off of what I know right now, I would be looking for more longer stretches of drier weather in June than rain given what I know today. Todd Gleason: Now don't hold out on me. What is the month of July going to look like then, from your perspective, at least at the moment? Eric Snodgrass: Well, this is where I may gain some positive favor again because the way we look at this, with everything that's taking shape right now, every single analog that I have, stitch them together, they go from a drier June to a stormy July. And if we do in fact bring in good rainfall after kind of beating on the crop with some good heat in the month of June, that's a pretty positive scenario overall. Now you are going to hear, I guarantee it, you're going to hear every single possible scenario being played out for July from any different meteorologist you ever want to listen to. And the reality is none of us really fully know how that month is going to pan out. But there are a few things tilting the odds in favor of a better outlook for a crop in Illinois, and that's primarily centered around El Niño, partly, but mainly the very warm Northeast Pacific. And as long as that stays good and warm, our odds of having better rains in July are still there. So I'm not right now overly concerned. I understand that there's an ideal situation out there that everybody wants, but we never really get that anyway. I would just say, enjoy this heat as it's coming in because the crop needs it to catch up on GDDs. Todd Gleason: On that "enjoy this heat that's coming in", one last thing from you, because I do miss watching dust devils run across open fields. What causes them? Eric Snodgrass: Oh, good question. Todd, you know they're actually there almost all the time. Okay? There are little eddies that spin up due to landforms, due to small amounts of low-level wind shear where the winds just crisscross because of, well, there can be a thousand different reasons. But what makes the dust devil so unique around here, this time of year, is that we are, one, doing a lot of cultivating and planting, so we're better at creating a little bit of a dusty layer. And then two, when the big strong May and early June sun comes in, you can superheat the lower atmosphere. Now, I don't mean it gets super hot. It's a lapse rate term; in other words, the temperatures are real hot near the surface and they get cooler pretty quickly as you go up. What that allows for is convection, overturning, and the air gets pulled up. It stretches out any sort of little spin in the atmosphere, and it turns into a little mini vortex. It's kind of like that game I used to play when I was a kid, did you ever play this, Todd, where you had the red wheel tucked in between two strings and you had toggles on the end, and you could pull it and stretch it, and it would spin really fast? Todd Gleason: Oh, sure. Eric Snodgrass: Okay, that's what's going on. The atmosphere is heating the ground and stretching it vertically, making these little eddies spin faster and spin up, and there you go, you pick up the dust, and it flows around. Todd Gleason: As long as it doesn't come across you and carry a whole bunch of trash with it, it's perfectly fine. We'll talk with you again next week. Thank you much. Eric Snodgrass: You bet, Todd. Thanks. Todd Gleason: That's Eric Snodgrass, he is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrible. Joined us on this Friday edition of the Closing Market Report. It did come to you from Illinois Public Media, online on demand at WILLAg.org.