Latest / Earn Your Leisure / 2026 Stock Market Predictions: AI, Political Risk & Global Conflict

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2026 Stock Market Predictions: AI, Political Risk & Global Conflict · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Earners.
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  Speaker 2: What's up.
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• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Okay. Overall predictions for twenty twenty six.
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: I think the first half of the year will be
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: absolutely amazing. I have doubt ended up at fifty two thousand,
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: spy seven forty nine. Couple of concerns though, midterm fallout One.
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: I'm worried about a mid your and how some of
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: this geopolitical stuff will shake and rut of the market.
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: I alluded to it earlier, but I bring it up
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: again now. Copper, gold, and silver are all hidden highs,
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: and they're supposed to be offsetting each other, which means
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: if people are risk on commodities, and now risk on
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  Speaker 4: is coming back and teching crypto, something's going to have
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  Speaker 4: to break. So you're gonna have to follow the administration
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: closely to see where those cracks could be. And I'll
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: be looking at who falls out of favor with him
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  Speaker 4: and what industry they're in to see what will fall first. Lastly,
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  Speaker 4: I don't think that the AI trade is over, but
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: we have to be very honest about some of these
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  Speaker 4: companies like Adobe, maybe Salesforce. There are some companies in
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  Speaker 4: the rust of two thousand s and P five hundred
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  Speaker 4: and now that are just getting flat out murdered and
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  Speaker 4: there isn't anything to come in to fix those companies.
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  Speaker 4: And I'm worried about if AI, like software, eats the world,
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: but AI eat software, what happens to the bottom forty
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  Speaker 4: percent of software companies that are no longer as usedful
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  Speaker 4: can't carry your premium, and we don't have American excellence
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: in terms of our executive leadership byb Iger's time for
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: you to turn your succession plan too. Business has been
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  Speaker 4: flat for three fucking years.
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: Everybody get.
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  Speaker 4: I'm here to keep it real. They said they want
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: the old energy back. I'm just being real, Tim Cook.
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: It is time for you to step down. You go
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: over the Nike. You already got your off board and
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: plan Bob, it's time for you to turn over and
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: let them be co CEO and let that be that.
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: And then a geopolitical risk we talked about earlier with Taiwan,
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: but I'm really worried about what Trump would do in Nigeria,
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: Colombia and a couple other countries after this village wild
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: of plan H worked out in his favor.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: It's interesting, I think we'll have another positive year.
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: We always do this.
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  Speaker 1: The historic first five days of the trading year. So yeah,
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  Speaker 1: we've we've done two already. And the theory is and
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  Speaker 1: it's I mean eighty five percent of the time it
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  Speaker 1: has been correct depending on how the first five days
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  Speaker 1: of the trading year go for the S and P,
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  Speaker 1: whether those first five days cumulative are positive, eighty five
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  Speaker 1: percent of the time the years going positive. So we're
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  Speaker 1: off to two positive days. I see we can get
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  Speaker 1: to three more and that would be great. It came
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  Speaker 1: to fruition last year as well, so we can add
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: to that percentage. I just think, you know, there were
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: times when war would mean volatility in the market over
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  Speaker 1: the past. I don't know, it's very rare the past
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: two or three years I wouldn't say war conflict. We've
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  Speaker 1: seen like maybe a slight pullback and then things are
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  Speaker 1: back to normal in the market, which is interesting. I
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  Speaker 1: think there's going to be more conflict for sure, and
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  Speaker 1: I'm interested to see how out how the market response
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: to that, because, like you said, people are going to say,
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  Speaker 1: all right, well, this is an opportunity to make money
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  Speaker 1: in some of these places. I think the AI story
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  Speaker 1: is definitely still prominent. I think it's still leads. But
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  Speaker 1: I am that that if we're going by that first
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  Speaker 1: five day year, and we're going by that that theory,
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  Speaker 1: then we also have to look at the midterm election
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  Speaker 1: theory and if roles changed in Congress, how that could
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  Speaker 1: potentially affect the market. Uh, it usually has. But overall,
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  Speaker 1: I think we have a positive year. I don't know
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  Speaker 1: if we're I want to say double digits. I want
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: to say I think, yeah, I think it's double digits.
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  Speaker 1: I know NAT did twenty again this year for the
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: thirty year in a row. I don't know if we're there,
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  Speaker 1: but definitely over somewhere over ten.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think thirteen percent is where we're
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  Speaker 4: coming up.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, very rare for the stock market to go up
• 5:55
  Speaker 5: four years in a row, double digits, but anything as possible.
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  Speaker 5: But also the political risk, I think is a lot
• 6:01
  Speaker 5: of domestic a lot of domestic political risk that can
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  Speaker 5: impact the market. I think if the Democrats really do
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: have a blue wave, then that's gonna be in the
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: short term negative for the stock market. Now, they're already
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: making attempts to undermine the undermine Democratic wave, and you
• 6:25
  Speaker 5: saw that happen in Minnesota with the Somali daycare situation.
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: This this thing was pushed on Twitter by Elon Musk.
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: When you control algorithm, you can do whatever you want.
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  Speaker 5: And there's no coincidence that the governments stepped down today.
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: It was it was it's a political yeah, he stepped
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  Speaker 5: down as all, you're not gonna run for real.
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  Speaker 2: This is a political hit job executed very well.
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  Speaker 5: So they're not going down without a fight, as far
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  Speaker 5: as Republicans are not going to go down without a fight.
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  Speaker 5: They controlled pretty much every industry right now and they're
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  Speaker 5: very well resourced. So MAGA two point zero. You may,
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: you may, you may not see the blue wave that
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: you think you will see. I think if the Republicans
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: keep the House in the Senate, that's going to be
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: good for the stock market in the short term. I
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: think if the Democrats take take the House, the Senate,
• 7:23
  Speaker 5: that's going to have a negative impact on it on
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  Speaker 5: the stock market for the short term.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: I agree.
• 7:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that thirteen percent probably dropped the nine if that changes, yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: Let's let's see. But who knows, who knows Molly Daycare?
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: Who would have thought that Somali Somali Daycare would be
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: the number one story in the world.
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: It's crazy. They bring up that fraud, but not all
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  Speaker 4: the other fraud that's being committed that benefits them ellentually
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  Speaker 4: all allegend.
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: Right, it's ridiculous, It's ridiculous.
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  Speaker 5: I mean, there's a few other days kids, for sure,
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: there's a few others that need to be talked about
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  Speaker 5: if you want to.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: If you really if let's listen, a couple.
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: Of hotel change allegedly they are not publicly traded.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: Ever, so government subsidies, corporate bailouts.
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  Speaker 4: I feel like Bernie Sanders, like what not saying it
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  Speaker 4: is right? But boy, the package y'all get on the
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: back of what. Okay, y'all stop the non farm payroll?
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah change, I mean Biden changed the definition of recession,
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: like what do we what?
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  Speaker 5: Okay, But Democrats, y'all gotta they gotta do something because.
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: I answer this time, either not to cut you off
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: ain't the fucking answer. Y'all need to go get some
• 9:03
  Speaker 4: other piece. Shot to Meg and Clay Meg not the answer.
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: Y'all gonna have to bring some real solutions this time.
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  Speaker 5: And the reason why I think that the Democrat if
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: they do win, is gonna have at least a short
• 9:15
  Speaker 5: term effect in the market is because I feel like
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: the Democrats only hope is to turn extremely to the left.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: This is why Mandanni is the mayor of New York City.
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: You got it, and that's going to cause shockwaves in
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: the market if you have a if you have a
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  Speaker 5: wave of.
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Socialism that that takes over.
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: But but but that would actually be intelligent because they're
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: playing it too safe right now. They're playing it too
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: much in the middle. One foot in, one foot out. Mandanni,
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: he broke every every rule possible. He broke every rule possible, said,
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: if naw y'ahoo comes to New York City, he's getting
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: arrested on site. And he got more Jewish votes than
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: any other mayor, and they got Eric Adams talking about
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: he moved. I think he moved to Israel. If I'm
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: not mistake, you should. But I'm just saying, like you
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: playing it safe and you still losing to ask. You
• 10:07
  Speaker 5: cannot play it safe in twenty twenty six. You gotta
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: a good brand lesson all or nothing.
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, there's nothing between.
• 10:16
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