Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Episode 1 - Who We Are, Why We Do It, and ... Ethan Dorchies?
Transcript
- Jaba: Alright, guys, welcome into the first episode of the Scout and the Speculator podcast brought to you by Prospect Pulse. That is ProspectPulsev1.com. the best place for aggregated market data and player profiles, articles, pretty much anything you could ask for. It is there on the site. my name is Will. also known more frequently has Jabba cards. I love baseball, I love Bowman, and I've taken a huge interest in kind of the investment side of Bowman and you know it it's just I think it's fascinating and You know, I joined Prospect Pulse as a writer to kind of talk about how the market operates, what's going on day to day, things of that nature. And I'm really excited to be starting this podcast alongside my friend Jeremy Brown. Jeremy is the director of basically everything, thirteen and fourteen year olds, with Perfect Game, which is the youngest level they have. So he's the guy, you know, essentially finding these kids. you know, we usually Usually see him as seventeen, eighteen year olds. Jeremy's the guy that's picking kind of picking through everything at the most difficult point. So he you know he has some great relationships with a lot of superstars, a lot of popular Bowman names, and you know it goes without saying that he has a ton of interesting insight. I'll let him introduce himself in a moment. But yeah, again, this is you know, we're trying to make A podcast here that will give you guys insight into the market. You know, we'll discuss players, their individual markets, some of the nuances and subtleties unique to Bowman. You know, it's kind of a weird beast with some inexplicable Jheremy: Hmm. Jaba: you know aspects, but we're here to kind of make it digestible, break it down, and you know, give you guys the most insightful and thorough kind of guide if you're looking to invest. And collect Bowman cards. With all that being said, I'll turn it over to Jeremy to introduce himself, say a few words, and then we're gonna get right into some trade deadline talk right when he's done. Jheremy: Perfect. Yeah, I mean, thirteen years now, full time doing this and cards, about a year, year and a half, it kind of became like, hey, I know all these kids from a young age. This is a way for me to continue to follow them. And it's like, hey, I know these kids from a young age. Why don't we buy the guys who aren't hyped up, hold on to them, sell and then kind of fund the hobby through the hobby, is how it started, right? And then you get guys who are like a juneker where it's like, wait, I can buy at twenty five bucks a base auto. And I can sell at seventy five bucks and you do that a few times and like making some real money. So yes, it is about the money, but at the same time for me it's seeing the players from such an early age, being able to watch them develop Become big leaguers with somebody like a Connor Griffin or what Theo Gillen's doing right now, Ralphie Velasquez, Colt Emerson. Those are all guys who played in my thirteen and fourteen new games that I've gotten to grow personally close with that now I get to watch them be professionals and do some cool stuff with cards alongside. So kind of in a nutshell what it's all about for me. Jaba: yeah, and I I I think it's interesting that you made the point specifically about, you know, how it started, it's not for the money, and I think that that's something that is echoed by a lot of, you know, big Bowman collectors that I've spoken to. I think none of us are you know, got into this for the money necessarily. I think for all of us it's like, yeah, well making money's nice. But as you said, it's like funding the hobby through the hobby. I mean, at the end of the day we're doing this because we love the cards, we love baseball, you know, we're nerds for the advanced statistics. We find the market fascinating and I think that that's how, you know, a ton of large Bowman, you know, kind of accounts have grown because it's people who just love love the sport, they love collecting the cards, and then the you know, kind of financial ramifications are kind of an added bonus and it allows it to kind of grow. You know, for me it was Anthony Ianson at Bowman Draft. You know, I got a bunch of blues of him, a few black autographs for very cheap. Jheremy: She's Jaba: And that developed nicely to a point where all of a sudden I had all of this kind of money that I had kind of stumbled my way into and that allowed me to, you know, buy more guys and kind of grow a portfolio and then Yeah. Jheremy: And feed the addiction. Jaba: Exactly. And that's kinda where we are now and we'll see. You know, ideally it will build on itself and be you know, kind of an exponential curve. You know, you're not gonna hit on everyone. But, you know, y you you Jheremy: I do think like Jaba: you hope it feeds itself, but we'll we'll see. The jury's still still out on that part, but Jheremy: I think people listening there's gonna be guys who relate fully to you and guys who relate fully to me, like you. Go get a true black, true red. You're like all in for it. Whereas I'm like, I'll do my base, some four ninety nines, dabble in some color. But like at the end of the day it's all kinda what you wanna be into and how you wanna be into it. Like we're both grown adults with actual jobs and like seeing a sad yell Delzine Seeing a Delzine base auto go from five to twenty bucks is cool, but at the end of the day, like I'm up fifteen bucks on a card. Granted I have a dozen of but like that's not moving the needle. It's more of just like I was like you're proving yourself right. Like I was on this kid before anybody because I saw something that I wanted. He wasn't hyped up. I did my own research, watched my own video, and now he's like a top ten prospect for the Red Sox after the trade. He's probably closer to closer to that five number than it is at ten right now. So Jaba: Absolutely, yeah. Jheremy: just kind of stuff like that. And I think that's a lot of it is like proving even though I do it for a profession, still like proving that you can do it in other levels of that realm as well. Jaba: Yeah, and I I I think that that's you know, I always say I think the greatest thing about Bowman and cards in particular, but you know, I really only do baseball cards, specifically Bowman. And I think the best thing about it is you can play in whatever sandbox you want to and Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: have an equally great experience. I mean, I got into it like Jeremy like a year ago, and when I started it was all, you know, base four ninety nines. Like I said, I had a couple of things like Ions in that kind of allowed me to know apply a bit more dry powder from kind of my hobby fund into itself and now you know I've started buying some reds and blacks but I would say you know predominantly when I'm shuffling through my cards you know it's a lot of refractors still have like a ton of base and to me that's still probably the most satisfying part and you know, kind of with all that being said, trade deadline was yesterday, last night at six PM. a few bigger moves, you know, Red Sox with Baltimore for Adley Rutschman. not a ton of big name guys on the move this year, but there are, you know, some interesting pieces, and I'd be curious, for you, I mean I think the Orioles Red Sox trade is a bit of a layup. So maybe maybe to lead I'll say, you know, which trade for you probably increased a guy's value the most? Jheremy: Increased value. a lot of guys I think are going from bigger markets to smaller markets, honestly. Like Jefferson Rojas going to the Mets, but I feel like that's a unilateral move because he was a club, Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: a top five prospect, really good for them. Jaba: I agree on that, yeah. Jheremy: like I don't know. I don't I don't know if there was one that actually enhanced value. Like Zaire Hope's a top thirty guy, but he went from Dodgers to Detroit. Jaba: Right. Jheremy: Like I felt like I felt like that carried a lot of his value as being a dodger. Jaba: Absolutely. Jheremy: I don't I don't know that I mean, I guess Sammy Staffor is the the obvious one here, just he was already climbing with like fourteen bombs last week, or last month rather. Now he's with the Mets. So bigger market, New York Kid Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: has a lot of that going for him. That's probably gonna be your biggest increase. I think. Jaba: Definitely. Jheremy: was more indicative of his market than being a Red Sox arm, I think, with what he's done. So I'll be curious to kind of see what his price is if they fluctuate, if they're settled, if they kind of stay. my favorite trade though is the Cardinals getting f Alexander Fryas and Josiah Ragsdale for a rental of Dustin May and Jojo Romero out of the bullpen. Two names that everybody I'm sure the guys who know Bowman are into it, into those two names. Jaba: Absolutely. Jheremy: Because those could realistically be two of your chase names, come Bowman Crohn. But those are two of the guys I think you and I have talked about a good bit already. Ragsdale obviously being a B C product. Being somebody Jaba: Absolutely. Go eagle. Jheremy: like yeah, I think go Eagles. Being somebody I think like we're both gonna buy pretty good on both of those two guys. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, I think that that was probably the Other than, you know, again the Red Sox one, you can kinda debate that one to death. But I I think the Frius and Ragsdale going to the Cardinals for Dustin May is th that was the first one yesterday where it was you know, kinda like, Wow, that's that's two big guys and obviously they don't have cards yet. They should both be in Bowman Chrome and, you know, we'll get into all that stuff, you know, in a couple of weeks probably. But I mean those guys are both gonna be big chases. They still will be, regardless of I mean there'll be brewers in the product. I don't really think that it would hurt their market. I know people do like chasing brewers given their you know, history of just pumping out top top end talent. But I mean the Cardinals do have a pretty big loyal fan base. so I mean I mean I yeah. I Jheremy: Cardinal fans do pay well. Like look at Joshua Baez's numbers and he's still in triple A. Like Jaba: Yeah, I I I think it's it it's a push, but that was definitely kinda the biggest, you know, from a talent standpoint at least has it, you know, translates to Bowman. Those were definitely the ones Where I you know, kinda stopped me in my tracks. And yeah, I I I also agree with you. I mean I think the giving you the stock up question was a little tough Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: because before we started I wrote down, you know, I kinda just figured I'd write a couple stock up, stock downs. For stock up, you know, I had Staffurra because of the New York market. I mean, it's not like people don't pay for pirates. Connor Griffin just broke every, you know, Bowman price record ever. But, you Jheremy: Ever. Jaba: know, he's a like Jeremy said, he's a New York guy playing for the Mad He's scalding hot right now, so I think his hot play already had his market moving. And I think that this will just, you know, kind of play into that and You know, he's in the high twenties right now. I could see him pushing like a forty dollar base auto for the short term. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: And the only other guy I've really had written down is Jonathan Long, who the Cubs traded to the Marlins. Long's a guy who's been I mean, he was twenty-five Bowman, so he came out like last May and he was in triple A playing well. You know, good not great numbers at first base. And it was just kind of like a alright, well he's blocked in Chicago, you know, Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: they have no shortage of good hitters. And that's kind of continued to now. I mean, correct me if Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: I'm wrong, but I don't think he's debuted. you know they just have such a such a log game of guys. Jheremy: Nope. And like he's had his He's had his for sure. And like corner guys you can only do so much with them. Like and Whenever guys have a spike in the market, I call it like a their Bowman, like their Bowman moment for whatever it might be. And like he had a pretty decent one last year after release. I don't know if people had just kinda caught on to him. You see that every so often, guys like you get through like the glitz and glamour of the top guys, then it's like all of a sudden like, look at this kid's only twelve dollars and he's really good. And then like Buzz starts on whatnot, Buzz starts on Twitter, there's a tweet or two, and before you know it, that's a thirty dollar card. Then it comes back down to earth, kinda settles there. but yeah, long I'll be curious about. Obviously, Marlins, I don't think, have the biggest market Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: base. Like, you could Jaba: That th that that is something that gives me a little bit of pause because that's gone from, you know, like you said earlier, even with Jefferson Rojas, I mean usually going to the New York market is, you know, an upgrade in terms of market, but Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: I I I think like you said, going from Cubs to Mets is, you know, probably a push. I mean maybe Cubs to Yankees would really be the only way to upgrade off the Cubs or Dodgers maybe. But Jheremy: Right. Yep. Jaba: yeah, so I I mean with Long it's like okay, well he is gonna I would assume get a shot here. You know, he's gonna get some plans. Playing time and we'll see what he can do. But yeah, I mean, even after talking it out, it's not like it's you know, a guy that I'm fully behind and saying, you know, you should get in now and expect a debut and a Jheremy: Right. Jaba: rise. Then the only other guy I had was Cash Mayfield, just kinda cause I was trying to get to three. I feel like nobody really pays attention to the Padres market because AJ Pereller trades everyone Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: worth you know, paying attention to, other than Ethan Salais, who's had a, you know, pretty remarkable rebound. Jheremy: Glow up Jaba: this Jheremy: again. Yeah. Jaba: year. But yeah, I mean I I pick Cash Mayfield just because he's a big lefty. you know, the Tigers do pretty well developing pitchers. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: And You know, it that that that was kind of just okay, you know, people don't care about the Padres. Maybe they'll care a bit more about the Tigers, but you know, who knows there. I think in terms of stock down, is there one guy where you're like, I wish I had unloaded his cards last week? Is there a guy you know? Jheremy: I mean the the very obvious one I think is Henry Lalane. Like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: 'cause Yankees throwing really well. Not to say he's not like a good player, good arm, somebody I bought from the release. He was like cheap. He was like single digit base auto for a while. Like you could get good colors sub a hundred Jaba: He was, yeah. Jheremy: bucks. but just losing that Yankee market, I think like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: he has he did have what, a ten and an eleven case strikeout performance like back to back. Jaba: Yeah, I I think both of them were like alongside seven shutout innings or something similar to that. Jheremy: Yeah. So like talent wise he should stay there. Maybe this gives him a quicker path without as much spotlight on him. I think I was gonna bring it up though. I think the I think the Giants had a really, really good trade deadline in terms of revamping and getting some young talent in there with Lilane, with Caden Kent, with Ramon Marquez, like an arm from Philly that people don't really know about, talk about because he doesn't have Bowman yet, but like really, really good numbers, really like one of the best changeups in lower minors. And like on top of that in that Robbie Ray trade, they also got Joni L Hernandez, who should be in Bowman Chrome again this year. I think Marquez and Bone and Joni L you might see in Bowman Chrome. And I feel like that really is like what helps set markets, like helps put players, make them famous, right? Is having Bowman. Jaba: For sure. Jheremy: Like these names right now aren't out there regularly because they don't have cards. So we're not talking about them. But for all those guys who do the deep dives into prospects, guys like that I think are like ones you should put on your market, though I'll be curious what you think with all these guys gonna have their cards in the other uniforms, if that makes a difference, doesn't make a difference. I really I mean, for me it doesn't. I think it's cool to see O'Neal Cruz in a Dodgers uniform. And it Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: as like as long as it has that first stamp on it, I don't think people really care, but just kind of curious what you think. Jaba: Yeah, that's I mean, that's definitely an interesting talking point and I think something that we could both kinda, you know, get some people's opinions on and kinda see how people feel about that. I mean, to me, I personally don't really care, but I could see how it would, you know, kinda confuse people, a little bit, especially, you know, like the brewers guys coming out next month. It's like, you know, if you're not a huge prospect junkie, I mean, I think Frios is a guy That's you know been all over Twitter. I think most Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: people collecting Bowman will know Frias. But like Ragsdale kind of, you know, he was like a seventh round pick out of BC. You know, he's blown up this year and everything looks legit, but I don't think a ton of people, you know, fully are aware of him. And I think that there will be a lot of people pulling you know his card in a brewer uniform, and then it'll kind of be like you know, you Google him and it says he's you know with the Cardinals, and I don't necessarily think it'll impact his market but I I don't think it's nothing either. Jheremy: No, for sure. Well, and they're like in division in division foes, right? In the NL Central like there's little things that Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: go to it at the end of the day, like Prospect I think is gonna win out, but I do think you're gonna get some quote unquote casuals who look and see like, they're not even in the brewer's top thirty. And like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: just listed and I think you could probably get some cheap bins really quick on eBay at release. Jaba: Absolutely. Jheremy: But yeah. Jaba: Yeah, and I I mean it i it's funny you say that too because I think Bohm and Chrome in particular is probably the most volatile release. I think it's Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: really not even up for debate because, you know, the headliners are usually DSL guys. There's always a Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: few kind of late bloomers. You know, last year Cam Cam Schlittler. But I think it's a lot of guys who, you know, won't be prominently featured. I think most people just go right to MLB pipeline. You know, you'll go to like an organization's top thirty. And Jheremy: That's it. Yep. Yep. Jaba: outside of the top ten, which I know they update after the draft, they do the top ten, but they don't do the entire top thirty. So I mean when you're looking at a top thirty, that really doesn't have any DSL complex type guys blowing up because those are the guys that will be unranked or outside the top ten. So unless it's the guys that That are really blowing up and make it into that top 10 after the draft, which is a pretty tall ask unless you're a huge bonus guy. I do think that there are a lot of opportunities in Bowman Chrome to kind of find your guys. You know, last year was Caseris, even Fitzgerald. you know, I know a lot of baseball people loved Fitzgerald last year, you know, kinda all like the smarter people that I've talked to. They were all hyping the kid up a ton and he didn't really have much of a body of work and he obviously exploded earlier this year. You know, he's struggled a since going to double A, but there's some factors, you know, behind that. But yeah, I think Bowman Chrome is definitely kind of a huge hit or miss product. I think, you know, people reasonably chase, you know, the big bonus guys and that can work out great. I mean Josuar Gonzalez, he's barely played and he's like the he's fifteen on pipeline. but Jheremy: Yep. Ranial Rodriguez last year was a big chase, like Jaba: Ranielle, I mean I mean e even Ellian Pena, i it's you know, I'm a Mets fan and it's interesting for me. you know, when he skipped the complex this year, I was very excited. He got off to a pretty torrid start. He was going nuts. And since then he's had just kind of like an okay pedestrian year. His prices are still high on, you know, kind of the big collar, but his base auto is basically slashed in half at this point. So there is definitely some risk to just, you know, I think if you're correlating, you know, big bonus to performance necessarily. I think you could get hurt pretty badly. I think it'll work out a decent bit of the time. But I think that that's where you can get, you know, like Chris Rodriguez Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: with the Tigers. I mean he's got serious power still and I mean he's what eighteen? I mean I'm I'm saying he's bad. But you know Yeah. Andrew Solace, Jheremy: Yep. Him Jorger, you have Andrew Sallas, like Jaba: another great example, you know, you can you know you can see the value crash fast because these guys don't have a huge body work. And you're really just going off their prospect pedigree. And if they come out of the gates and play okay or worse, you're gonna, you know, see a pretty serious dent in the value. I'm glad you brought up the trade to other teams and how it impacts value because I wanna get your opinion on this is a pretty divisive one. I know for me, the first thing I think of is Nolan McLean, where his first card is him hitting and he's obviously a pitcher. You know, he did do the two way thing, you know, pretty deep into the minors. I know he reached double A as a hitter where he was he wasn't even a three true outcome guy, he was a two true outcome guy. Jheremy: Hm. Jaba: You know, the power numbers were pretty incredible for a guy that's this good of a pitcher. but yeah, I think he had like a fifty percent K rate. But I'm curious if you think, you know, a guy on a card with a position that he no longer plays, does that impact how badly you want it? I mean I know Josh Owens is still doing both and he's he's He's hitting, I think. Jheremy: Doing both. Yeah, he's doing both. Like I don't know. Because it feels like Bowman has rectified the two-way thing with their mega auto being the opposite of whatever their first was. Like Owen, Maury, Jaba: Yeah. I do like that. Yeah. Jheremy: I mean Kag's had the IV in draft of him pitching. Just like as a different Jaba: Right. Yeah, that's a second one. Jheremy: thing. Seth Hernandez has the IV of him hitting in draft. The IVs being obviously numbered kind of helps or help does skew that. Like, does it hold more value? Like, yeah, it's numbered to what twenty five ninety-nine, I think. Jaba: I think it's ninety nine. Jheremy: so I don't think I think that's just kind of a personal preference for it. Like, I'm not actively seeking out the Nolan McLean because he's hitting like a faux pas Jaba: Right. Jheremy: of sorts. I think it's just kind of is what it is. But I'm sure we're gonna have more of that coming out too, right? Like every so often there's a guy who comes out as a two way that it's gonna be one way and they're gonna ultimately play the other. So Jaba: And I I I guess to kinda stay on that point, would you say, 'cause I I mean to me I'm lifelong diehard baseball fan, but I have no, you know, involvement in the baseball world beyond being, you know, far too invested in the New York Mets. Would you say I mean, it feels to me like this two way thing is kind of a new phenomenon in like the last five or so years? Obviously you're working with these guys when they're thirteen, fourteen. So, you know, at that age I guess a lot of guys Are doing both, you Jheremy: Sure. Jaba: know, because especially the guys you're working with are going to be the most talented athletes for the most part. but would you say, just as someone who is in baseball, would you say that it's correct to kind of think that there's a massive influx of these two-way guys that at least get drafted as two-way guys? I know they don't necessarily you know, a lot of them kind of ditch one immediately, but would you say Jheremy: Yep. Right. Jaba: that the two-way thing has become a lot more prevalent kind of in your eyes? Jheremy: If Jaba: the scouting world. Jheremy: I think teams are giving it more of a chance now than they had in the past, like but they're quickly becoming like hitting a baseball is really, really hard. Like I I don't think people realize like we all sit back and say, he's an eighteen year old hitting two eighteen. He's not good. It's like he Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: it's playing baseball is hard. It's not easy. And you look at some of the DSL kids who just come over, like, it's their first time in the States. They're away from home. Like, let's give Jaba: Right. Jheremy: a give a year to adapt to the culture to everything. that's like kind of a side tangent with it, but like just getting back to baseball is really hard. To get your reps in the cages and then still go do your long toss in your flat ground. And run your pull, like do this, that, the other, your arm care stuff while also working at a pos like it's a lot. And you're seeing a lot of them. You you are seeing more of them, but like I think you're quickly seeing them teams dictate one way or the other. Like Reggie Crawford was drafted as a two-way, quickly became Jaba: Right. Jheremy: an arm. Bryce Eldridge drafted as a two way, quickly became a bat. Like, I don't doubt Owen and Maury, Owens and Maury, like these guys are gonna eventually be told like you can only do one. Like, there's a reason. you've only seen Shohei. And Michael Lorenzen, I guess, to a degree. Like he was an outfielder coming up. Like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: I mean, I don't even know if he played in the big leagues as an outfielder, but like that was Jaba: He he did, but I think it was like some, you know, weird late double switch tomfoolery. Not like starting. Jheremy: Yeah. Yeah, I mean he's like in he he was like an outfielder coming up through Cale State, but like very rare can you is there somebody doing it all the time. It's Shohei Jaba: Right. Jheremy: and there's a reason his prices are a bajillion dollars for a Bowman paper rookie. Like he's the only one. Jaba: Right. And to kind of put a bow on the two way talk and kinda close that loop. Would you say, I mean, for me, I know that the Mets specifically have taken an affinity to kind of drafting these two way guys, obviously McLean in the third round in twenty twenty three. Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: you know, Benge was the first rounder in twenty four. Obviously he he was like a reliever at Oklahoma State. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: I don't think there was ever I mean correct me if I'm wrong, I don't think there was ever any thought to him, you know, continuing to pitch. I think that that was clearly a you know he's being drafted as A hitter he's gonna hit, and you know, Mitch Void at Michigan was the same thing, you know, he was an infielder and a pitcher. That was another one where it was, you know, they announced him as a hitter and they did that on purpose. Do you think that some of these guys, because kind of I wouldn't say like an assumption I operate under, but I do feel like there's at least reason to potentially think there's more of like a runway for those guys because as you said, it's so time consuming to do both. You know, if you're doing Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: both in call. Would you say, you know, the guys that did that in college and then get drafted, would you say and ob obviously it can also be a kind of case by case thing, but for like the guys like Benj who relieved in college and now he's a hitter from day one of the minors, would you say that it's kind of fair to have an affinity for those guys in Bowman, you know, kinda under the assumption that there's more runway just because of the time that they're able to now focus on it? Jheremy: Right. It's just like even I mean, you just say that immediately, like the two sport kids who come out or that are high level that they get bought out of like a football thing. Like somebody like a Walker Martin in two years ago draft, right? Like a high end football player. Jaba: Mm. Right. Jheremy: I think it one, it gives you the thought like they're gonna do this full time now, so they can dedicate everything to it. And two, like, you gotta be really athletic to do it too. Like and to do it like at a high level. Right. Jaba: Right. So it's like in order for them to have done it to now, the athleticism not is nuts, and then it kinda changes hands into like the okay, and now we know the athleticism's there and once he starts focusing then it becomes kind of like a time thing or something. Jheremy: Exactly. Like just a lot of different markers there that could point towards like more refinement, more trending the right way with added reps, with after you throw your arm like you're shut down basically for a day, now you have that other day to go do more reps in the cage, do this, do that. I do think there's something there for it personally. So I I wouldn't put like I'm not going all in on a kid just because he's done pitching now and he's Jaba: Right. Jheremy: gonna hit, but like it's something to consider, especially if like as you get into like a PYP or even a PYT, like, they they got this kid who's a good little stash. That might work well if at least you hit something, like you could you could stash him. So Jaba: Yeah, you can kinda talk yourself into it. All right, so I Jheremy: Exactly. Jaba: I think we'll close with one you know, one kind of segment here. I'm curious, is there one guy in particular in the past week or so that you've been focused on buying? Is there kinda one guy that stands out to you as a target right now? And who is that? Jheremy: So I don't think it'll be a surprise because we've talked about it. But Ethan Dorchies with the Brewers. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: and honestly, my reasoning for buying him at first was as simple as he was a brewer, he was 19, he was in the in a ball, and he's huge. Like you're big, you're in Jaba: Yep. All you need. Jheremy: a good org, you're that can develop, you're young. Like his numbers at the start of the year were not good. So at release his stuff was really cheap. Like, and it still is really cheap. But he strung together a handful of starts lately where like guess what? The 19 year olds who could have just been drafted is in a ball in figuring it out. Like go figure. Like Jaba: Higher, yeah. Jheremy: go figure, right? Like like facing kids probably a year, two, three years older than him at times, where now his Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: strike up numb strikeout numbers are going. His opponent's batting average is down. Like everything you want to see is trending the correct direction. Where Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: I think a lot of people just they go look at like the the stats like on the face of it, right? Like you go to their MILB page and see like, he's got a six Jaba: Right. Jheremy: and a half ERA and he's not good. And it's like, let's like Jaba: Right. Jheremy: dig a little further. Like, let's do a little bit more than the bare minimum to look into some of these guys, and I think you'd be surprised at how much. you could ultimately like gain o an Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: advantage over the hobby, so to speak. Jaba: Yeah, yeah, because I I I think so many of these guys get written off and Dorchies is a guy that you and I have talked about pretty extensively. you know, just when we're chatting about Bowman. And if you look at Dorchies, I don't have it in front of me, but I mean the monthly splits, like you said. I mean if you're on MILB dot com, like Jheremy: The monthlies are like crazy. Jaba: everyone does, just kinda like looking at the stats in front of If you just scroll down and click, you know, splits, you'll see I mean, April and May were both pretty equally disastrous. And then June Jheremy: Hmm. Jaba: was Major step in the right direction. It wasn't even kind of a slight improvement. It was basically like you know, here's a new pitcher. And then July was even better. we'll see how he closes out August. But I think that things like that, like you said, you know, a lot of people will look at just the surface stats and say, okay, yeah, it's like a 60 RA, he's not good. Jheremy: Right. Jaba: But then you kinda dive into it, which doesn't take much, you know, effort. And you don't you don't need Jheremy: Like three more clicks. Jaba: to know baseball that well to see, you know, a positive or a negative trend. And especially when it's that dramatic, you know. I think that those are kinda like the like little edges you can get that really take no effort. You don't need to be a baseball genius. You know, I I think it's just kind of understanding trends and like you've said a few times, I mean these guys are basically Children. He's nineteen years old. He's in high A. I I mean, it's not like he's like twenty three, played three years of college, and he's, you know, struggling to adjust. It i it's you know, it's a kit. And I think that is, you know, a reason why we both like him. And you know, to kinda Jheremy: And and like a tenth rounder, too, on top of it all. Like Jaba: Yeah. But I feel like them being so aggressive with his placement. I mean, most nineteen year olds are, you know, in the complex and I think he outright went to single A. He Jheremy: Yeah, or low A and you're happy with that. Yeah. Jaba: started this year in high A. I mean, I guess there's two ways you could look at it, but I I choose to see it as like a okay, well, like they believe in this kid and they're pushing him aggressively. I guess you could also say, you know, they see him as organizational depth and you know Jheremy: Right. Jaba: they I feel like the former is, at least hopefully, Jheremy: Right. Jaba: you know I said Jheremy: Just like even comparing to somebody you and I both bought, right? Like Johnny Slavinski's nineteen in the ACL right now. Like Jaba: Right. Jheremy: Just guy like different perceptions of guys. Like yes, Dorches was a tenth rounder, but t after that you don't have bonus pools so you can pay more. So he was probably paid more outside of the bonus pools so that they could get him money. So people again, like not knowing that, like you see a tenth or eleventh rounder, it's like, well they probably pushed him to there so that they could pay Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: him a little differently too. So all little things. Jaba: Yeah, and I mean that the the draft stuff is such a, you know, baseball speci specific nuance. I mean I am a big baseball fan and there's still some things about the draft that, you know, confuse me. I think, you know, people are used to the other major sports where you see kind of draft stock and it's like, okay, well that reflects how good this guy is. Whereas in baseball there is so much more that goes into it than, you Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: know, you're not you're not ranking off, you know, how you like these guys. You know, there's such a financial aspect, you know, it's like a puzzle. So I I I think another thing everyone might not realize is, you know, him going in the tenth round out of high school doesn't really I mean you'd obviously Prefer he went in the first round, but it's not like it's like that's like where he fell in terms of talent. You know, probably half the teams didn't think he'd sign, and you know, there's a financial aspect where you have to kind of dedicate money. all that to say, I'm also a Dorchies guy, and I think my pick also nicely relates to kind of our two way conversation. I've been buying some Connor Essenberg, he was a two Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: way guy in high school, drafted by the Brave. Last year, and he has been a full-time hitter, ditched the pitching. the early numbers were pretty ugly, a lot of strikeouts. He was hitting the ball extremely hard despite that. When he did hit it, the numbers were kind of progressively getting better. You know, they went from you know pretty scary to being tolerable, especially for how hard he hits the ball. And he just kind of caught fire in single A. he just got promoted to high A. But he's a guy with just really ridiculous exit velocities, the power's huge. This is his first year, you know, being a full time hitter. And I think that, you know, while the swing and miss is scary, I think you can at least attribute some of that to just being more raw than, you know, your average first year pro after the draft. because of the two way thing. So I like Essenberg a lot. I mean I'm not saying I'm going out and buying the super but I do think Jheremy: Hm. Not yet. Jaba: that he's a fun lottery ticket just with the raw power. And I'll be curious to see how he closes out the year in high A. I think, you know, the strikeouts are something to keep an eye on. But, you know, when guys hit balls that hard, it's at a certain point hard to kind of resist buying in. And he was a guy that I, you know, wasn't high on, but at a certain point it just got to now where I'm like, okay, I can't ignore, you know, the impact Jheremy: Right. Jaba: this guy puts on baseballs and you know, I'm doing myself a disservice if I'm not. So Jheremy: I th I mean I think that's kind of a market trend that's moving, shifting too, is like people don't care if you whiff in the low miners now, if you're hitting thirty pumps a year, you know. Like Andrew Fisher Jaba: Or the mid miners if you're Andrew Fisher, yeah. There we go. Jheremy: Right. Like Andrew Fisher's at running like a forty two K per cent K rate, or was. But he's also got what, thirty four home runs already, so it's like who cares? And he's hitting like three hundred. Jaba: yeah. Jheremy: Not that batting average by any means means like anything. But like When you're still carrying that baseline of stats, like, I I'll put Jaba: Right. Jheremy: my hand up and say, like, good for you. Like and I liked him really early on. He wasn't a power hitter. He was like a pure hitter. Like at fourteen, fifteen, sixteen. And then he just gotten so much more stronger that the strength has come and now it's like go ahead. Like, have at it. Like Jaba: Yeah. I I mean he he he's a guy that you and I have specifically discussed a lot. And I mean even in our conversations it's gone from one where we're like, Yeah, like the power's cool, but no no thanks. Like I'm not I'm not messing with that and I think he's probably you know, with his base autos up around ninety bucks. I think he's Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: at at least for me, he's still you know, I'm not quite there, even though he's done basically everything possible to sway me. But I am a lot closer. you know, kinda than I was like a month or two ago. Because Jheremy: Yeah. I mean i i yeah. Jaba: yeah, it it's just like you'd think that the power would slow down if the car rate stays the same, but it's not. And he's moved up a level now. And, you know, he's one that I'm probably going to remain on the sidelines for. I'm more just given how expensive his base auto Jheremy: Is Jaba: is. But I am fascinated to kind of see how things unfold for him and you know what things look like a year from now 'cause I think the I think the variance of outcomes even a year from now is, you know, it could be a twenty five dollar auto or a two hundred and fifty dollar auto. Neither of those would, you know, surprise me in the slightest. And I'm not even sure that there's a middle Jheremy: Right. I do think Jaba: ground there. I I think it's gonna be probably either or mostly. Yeah. Jheremy: Like boom or bust, yeah. I mean, again, he's in the right organization for cards. Brewers fans do pay really strong and love their prospects. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: but I mean shit, season's almost over and he his OPS still has four digits in it with a period in there. Like he like Jaba: Yeah, pretty pretty smoothly too. Jheremy: he's he's almost at a one one OPS. Like pretty good. Like yeah, man. Like, good for him. Jaba: And he doesn't hit the ball on the ground at all. Jheremy: No. Which is all like perfect for that profile. Like have at it. Jaba: Right. Yeah. Jheremy: but again, Brewers, like being able to develop and get it. Dorchies was tenth round. I just looked 'cause I was curious. Like Adam Zooski was a fifteenth rounder out of high school. They got him super strong. as shuffling through a stack of cards here. Like Owen Carey. Like another what was he, an eighteenth rounder? Fifteenth rounder. Fifteenth, Hartman was nineteenth. Like Jaba: Eight yeah. Yeah, 'cause he was fifteen and Hartman yeah. Jheremy: There there is value in those late round guys. Like that's almost like a market Jaba: So Jheremy: inefficiency. Obviously, like Hartman was my main chase until Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: he had that three home run game. Like I thought I was gonna get him cheap under the radar and I was gonna be all set. Not the case. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: But like I do think like if you just when the checklist comes out, just go make yourself a quick spreadsheet and just see where these guys are, who they are, what they're doing. Like give your if Jaba: Mm-hmm. Jheremy: you're gonna invest or invest or put money in, like even a couple hundred bucks a week. Whatever you want to do, like take the time to go do your own research. Like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Cassare's debuted at what a $20, $25 base auto, and you could get him readily in big rooms Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: on eBay, on in on whatnot, on eBay. You could like bin things. On release day, I know I bought a $4.99 for $50 off Facebook. I found an out of a hundred mini diamond auto for a hundred dollars shipped on fa on Instagram. Like Right. I mean Jaba: Yep, one of those just did three hundred dollars earlier. Actually I think it might have been a speckle, which is even Jheremy: I mean, you could find I found a true orange of at a card show for sub three hundred bucks. Like you could That's Jaba: That one's in my living room now. Jheremy: right. Like If you know the players you want and want to attack and have your own thoughts on them, and I'm not saying that as like do your own homework, but like I people Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: have jobs and have kids, like I have both, and you can only do so much. You can only dedicate so much to a hobby. I get that. But go find your guys, go find your niches. And somebody else who wrote down was a guy I chased from the beginning was Sad B. Delzine for the Sox. Like, everyone was chasing Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. You were pounding that drum for ages. Jheremy: I mean everybody was on Kevin DeFranc. Rightfully so, seventeen Jaba: Right. Jheremy: throwing a hundred. And it's like guys, Sad BL, if he didn't get hurt, we would be right there. They shut him down after like nine and a third innings. But like eighteen, six five, touching ninety-five with a hammer breaking ball and a really good change up. That's all I need to know to drop my instead of buying a Duncan coffee, I could go buy a couple base autos at this r relatively same price. Jaba: Right. Jheremy: Like I was scooping them at five bucks each. True blues are twenty dollars. I bought a gold Jaba: Yeah, that's Jheremy: mini diamond for fifty bucks. The pearls and ever like everything. I've had them all for him. Like Jaba: Yeah. I mean now he's in he's in single I he's had I believe two very good starts. I think he's two for two. something around there. But I mean e Jheremy: Yep. In a good market. Jaba: e even at the time of you know recording this, he's what, twenty dollars now? I mean he he he's Jheremy: I I'm literally looking it up right now. Yeah, twenty bucks at auction. Like Jaba: way he's way up, but I mean there's still a lot of room to grow on these guys and I would say You know, something that can be intimidating is, you know, you hear us talking about these guys and you go look and you're like, well the market's already up three to four X, you know, how much more room can it go? I mean, he's not gonna four X again this year, he's not gonna go from twenty to eighty. But if you're looking at it in terms of dollars, I I mean he could easily, you know create as much dollar gain one more time, you know, going from five to twenty. I could see going to thirty five, forty. I don't think it'll be Jheremy: I mean Jaba: this year, but I think early next year. I don't see why not. Jheremy: He's their he's he's their top pitching prospect now, right? Like Kyson and whatchamacallit are gone. It's him and Juan Valera and it's him and Juan Valera Jaba: Yeah, he's got he's gotta be. Yeah. Jheremy: and Valera's gonna be out for next year too. I he had TJ, so without any Bowman. So Jaba: Yeah, and I mean you look at the Red Sox history of developing pitchers the last few years, I mean the whole reason why they could trade Kyson and Ianson is because I mean they've just hit on so many you know, like Toll Toll was what, second round? Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: early was a third rounder the year before. I mean, they've done such a good job. And I mean this is probably an area where I would trust your word over mine. But it seems Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: to me like they feel confident that they can develop pitching given Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: success that they've had in the last few years. And I think for me, you know, that's something I look at. It's like, okay, well they've pumped out all these guys. You know, I want to buy Red Sox pitchers. And it's like, Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: okay, well I'm looking who's the most talented, healthy guy right now, and it's Delzine. And then you say, Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: okay Well, we got the organization we want, we got a big market, and we got the talent. So, you know, that's a guy, like you said, that's it's funny because that's similar to how I look at it. It's like, you I can go get Chipotle for lunch, or I can, you know, cook something at home and buy a Del Zene auto, you know. Jheremy: Right. Jaba: It's kinda like a fun way to look at it and it's like, okay, well investing in my future. Jheremy: And like the heading Exactly. Heading into like the off season, like if he's one of their top pitching prospects, you're gonna start getting more social media pump out of him, gonna start getting more like, look, the Red Sox have this demon up to a hundred at nineteen years old, eighteen years old. Jaba: Right. Jheremy: Like there's a lot that goes other stuff that goes into it. Not that I wanna play into it. I mean Sadbell's still eighteen years old. And His birthday's one nine. So he's like 18 all the way through this year, and will be 19 all of next year. And like we could see him in double A. Realistically. Jaba: Six five, two hundred pounds. Jheremy: Like big kid, best changeup, I think, in the in the org. He's 48 innings this year, 54k. His opponents are hitting 171 off of him. Like, checks a lot of the right boxes, and he's still really cheap. Like, in hindsight, I have a problem with it where I can't spend twenty dollars on a base auto. I was getting them for five bucks. Like it's a mental block for me, but like Jaba: Yeah. no, for sure. Jheremy: like like that's a new floor. Like you could be at this time being, it's forty bucks. Like, could have done it with Junicker. Like, Jaba: Right. Jheremy: I can't I'm not going in at forty. It's like, well now they're sixty five seventy. So Jaba: Yeah. Yeah and That's why Casaris, I mean, now I know on Prospect Pulse his average base auto is sixty one dollars. Anything I see, sixty-five bucks all NRLS, I'm buying. And, you know, yeah, I do have, you know, a similar thought to you where I'm like, was buying all these like twenty five last year. But I think if you believe in a player, and you know, you have that conviction and you have to make sure you're not talking yourself into it. You know, I I think it has to be the guys where like you really do believe in them. But it's like Caceres is a guy where I love him and And I would be, you know, pretty surprised if he doesn't tack on another thirty, forty bucks. So I'm happy to buy him at sixty bucks where the current market is because I do think that there's more kind of juice left to be squeezed out. It's not as fun as turning twenty into a hundred, but Jheremy: Right. Jaba: you know, I think making anything's still pretty fun if you ask me. So I don't Jheremy: No doubt. Perfect. Jaba: Well that yeah, so Jheremy: That's a good start. Jaba: we were shooting for thirty minutes here and I think we've got basically an hour of of recording as I think we both predicted would would happen once we got gone. But yeah, I think we're both really excited about this podcast and you know, to get this thing up and rolling. I'm excited to kinda have all of your great opinions and insight and Yeah, so we're signing off here and please Jheremy: Awesome. Jaba: be in touch with us with any questions, comments, ideas that you want to hear us talk about. but yeah, thank you all for listening, if anyone's still listening, and Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: we'll we'll talk to you next time. Thanks guys.