Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 460 - 2/23/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:0154321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
- 0:14welcome to episode 460 of the all systems go sports betting
- 0:19podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host, Josh Applebaum.
- 0:29What's going on, everyone? Happy Monday, a new week begins.
- 0:32Also happens to be the final week in the month of February.
- 0:36I need a little a little positivity, little light at the
- 0:39end of the tunnel, something to look forward to.
- 0:41And to me, that's the month of March, March Madness, baseball
- 0:45you've been hearing me talk about.
- 0:46I pretty much just just have to say it out loud for, you know,
- 0:49to avoid seasonal depression here because if you are like me
- 0:52in New England or anywhere on the East Coast of the United
- 0:55States, you are getting pummeled as we speak with snow.
- 0:58So already about two feet of snow where I'm at started at
- 1:01around 6:00 last night. And as I'm speaking mid to late,
- 1:05early to mid afternoon, it is still snowing.
- 1:07It's going to snow until like 8:00 tonight.
- 1:10So just when you think winter is over and there was one day last
- 1:13week where it was like 40°. The birds were chirping, the
- 1:16snow was melting. My dog touched grass in our
- 1:19backyard for the first time. I created these little, these
- 1:21little trails to go through like a little maze.
- 1:25She has fun with that. But Nope, that wasn't it.
- 1:27Winter said, we ain't done with you yet.
- 1:29So just want to tell everyone out there, if you are like me
- 1:32shoveling every few hours, don't go too hard.
- 1:35Don't be a hero. I saw this actually this tweet
- 1:39that came out. It was from some local news
- 1:42reporter, meteorologist in Boston.
- 1:44But they were saying, hey, the snow is heavy.
- 1:47The snow is wet and it's called quote, UN quote, heart attack
- 1:50snow. So that means like the majority
- 1:52of people have a heart attack when they're shoveling.
- 1:54This is the the snow that they have their heart attack with.
- 1:56So luckily they said, hey, 50 year older, you know, that's
- 2:00when you're really, you know, prone to it.
- 2:01I'm 38, so I guess I got 12 more years before I got to get a snow
- 2:05blower. But again, if you're out there,
- 2:07don't go too hard. If you are somewhere listening
- 2:10where it's warm, whether you're in Vegas or somewhere South or
- 2:13somewhere nice, I'm jealous of you.
- 2:15So enjoy it, enjoy it while while it's here.
- 2:18And I'm just going to, you know, twiddle my fingers until spring
- 2:20actually finally shows itself. But yeah, stuck in a Blizzard
- 2:23here. Not fun.
- 2:25But anyway, guys, we're getting right back to it because it is a
- 2:27Monday final week of February, as I mentioned, and we're going
- 2:30to hopefully finish off this month strong.
- 2:32I got a three pack of college basketball plays for you.
- 2:35So kind of a small slate. There's only nine games overall,
- 2:38but I have two huge games, two biggest games of the night.
- 2:42ESPN ranked teams extremely heavily bet we got to fade the
- 2:45trendy dog. We have an epic contrarian play
- 2:48with a gambler's fallacy, which I'll kind of talk about that
- 2:51here in a second. Might have heard that phrase,
- 2:53but I'll give you a reminder of what it is.
- 2:55And then also two big ones and then a small one and added extra
- 2:58game with a pretty sharp line move.
- 3:00So we're going to see, as always, if we can go 2 and one
- 3:02and eek out a winning day. So with that being said, let's
- 3:06get right into it, guys. 3 pack, as I mentioned, let's try to get
- 3:092 of them so first, but on the board for me first bed of the
- 3:13night here, 7:00 Eastern Time, big one between Louisville and
- 3:16North Carolina. This is game 891892 for those
- 3:20playing at home. So let's set the stage.
- 3:22Talk splits, line movement, system matches, and I'll give
- 3:24you my play for this one. So Louisville comes in 20 and
- 3:28seven on the year, ranked 21st in the country.
- 3:30They're playing pretty well. They've won six of their last
- 3:32seven, just beat Georgia Tech 87 to 70 didn't cover though
- 3:36they're favored by 23 1/2 at home in that one.
- 3:39Meanwhile, North Carolina 21 and 6, they're ranked 16th.
- 3:42They've been a little 500 here recently, wins and losses in
- 3:45their last four and they just did beat Syracuse 77 to 64.
- 3:49They actually won. That came outright as a 1 1/2
- 3:52point Rd. dog. So.
- 3:53Just sitting across the market here.
- 3:55Well, this game open in Louisville listed around a 1 1/2
- 3:58point Rd. favorite. So some books for 2 1/2, a lot
- 4:00of books for 1 1/2. But was very clear here is that
- 4:04this opening line, you know, spoke volumes to me because if
- 4:07you think about it, Louisville is 20 and 7 ranked 21st, North
- 4:11Carolina's 21 and 6 ranked 16th. So North Carolina has the better
- 4:15record, the higher and better ranking, and North Carolina has
- 4:19homecourt advantage. Yet with all that being said,
- 4:22Louisville open as a short favorite -1 1/2 - 2 1/2.
- 4:25So the public is saying Tar Heels are the better team.
- 4:28They're at home. Take the points of the Tar
- 4:30Heels. So if you look across the
- 4:31market, nearly 60% of spread bets are going with UNC at home
- 4:35plus the points. However, this is where it gets
- 4:38good. Even though majority tickets are
- 4:40on UNC, the line is not down to one or pick them.
- 4:43This line has gone further toward Louisville.
- 4:46Louisville went from -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2 and the 2 1/2's now
- 4:50gotten up to -3 - 3 1/2. So let's take a step back.
- 4:53If more than or roughly 60% of tickets, nearly 2/3 of bets are
- 4:58on UNC and you know odds makers are saying, hey, you like the
- 5:01Tar Heels, Here's a 1 1/2. Oh, here's a 2 1/2.
- 5:04Oh, here's a 3 1/2. Why are the odds makers giving
- 5:06out more and more points to the public when they're already
- 5:09betting the Tar Heels to begin with?
- 5:10So that's an indication to me of a classic fade, the trendy dog
- 5:13play, a classic reverse line move play a little more than 1/3
- 5:17of tickets on Louisville, yet the line is moving toward
- 5:20Louisville. So it tells me smart money here
- 5:22is on the Cardinals Now, specifically at DK, Louisville
- 5:26is getting 42% of bets, but over 65% of spread dollars.
- 5:30So good low bets, higher dollar split, which not only do we have
- 5:33the sharp reverse line move again public UNC, but line going
- 5:36to Louisville. But even if you take away that
- 5:39sharp line move, that sharp RLM, just a straight up contrarian
- 5:42play. There's only nine games tonight,
- 5:44guys and a lot of them are added extra games.
- 5:46In fact, this game, we're going to talk Houston, Kansas in a
- 5:49second. Those are the only two regular 3
- 5:52digit rotation number games. Every other game is an added
- 5:55extra game. So if you think about it, East
- 5:57Coast has snowed in today. It's a Blizzard.
- 5:59Everyone's going to be watching Louisville, North Carolina and
- 6:02Houston, Kansas, so if we even take away the sharp RLM toward
- 6:06Louisville, Louisville is just a good contrarian play.
- 6:08Heavily bet nationally televised game on ESPN Publix on trendy
- 6:12dog, North Carolina. I want to be on the sharp
- 6:14contrarian favorite, Louisville. Now Ken Palm does have
- 6:17Louisville winning, but only by 1.81 to 80.
- 6:21He does have the Cardinals ranked higher though, 15th in
- 6:23the country versus 30th for North Carolina.
- 6:27I'm going to mitigate some risk here.
- 6:28I played Louisville on the money line at -150.
- 6:32Shout out to those of you who read the sharp reports that I
- 6:34write for visen.com or have signed up to get the $4.99 a
- 6:38week best bets from Juice Real because I put this in at -150
- 6:41and now I'm seeing Louisville. Lowest number I'm seeing guys is
- 6:44-165 at Bet MGM and I'm seeing some shops as high as like -190
- 6:49so definitely shop around again. I think it's a good and a bad
- 6:53thing. It's a good thing that line
- 6:55keeps going toward Louisville even though Publix on North
- 6:57Carolina. Again, not a great thing if you
- 6:59haven't bet it yet, but still -165 I'd let that ride.
- 7:02We want to protect ourselves on the off chance that North
- 7:05Carolina maybe hangs tough and loses by 1-2 or three, in which
- 7:09in which case they cover the 3 1/2.
- 7:11We only care about Louisville winning the damn game.
- 7:14I like the splits at DraftKings on the money line. 40% bets 50%
- 7:19dollars on the Louisville money line at circa 75% bets over 90%
- 7:24dollars on Louisville. You also look at some stat
- 7:26advantages here. Louisville better offensive
- 7:28efficiency, 13th versus 31st for UNC, better defensive
- 7:33efficiency, 28th versus 38th, the stronger effective field
- 7:37goal percentage 18th versus 65th.
- 7:40They shoot the three better, 61st versus 200 and 2nd and free
- 7:43throw shooting 17th versus 300 and 8th.
- 7:46Oh by the way, I believe his name is Caleb Wilson.
- 7:49Best player on UNC got injured a few games ago, so he is out for
- 7:52this matchup. So I think the public just says,
- 7:54hey, North Carolina, better team, better record at home, big
- 7:57name school, obviously. But even though Publix on UNC,
- 8:00this line keeps creeping up toward Louisville.
- 8:02So I played Louisville on the money line -150 again, hope you
- 8:06got that number. If not, looks like -165 is your
- 8:10best price. But let's go.
- 8:11Louisville Cardinals next, 7:30 PM.
- 8:15Here's our sandwich game. Tiny little game, but it's got a
- 8:17sharp line move. What we look for this is Houston
- 8:20Christian at East Texas A&M. Now Houston Christian comes in
- 8:2410 and 18 on the year. They just saw their two game win
- 8:27streak come to an end. They lost to Northwestern State
- 8:2971 to 53. Did not cover as a 2 1/2 point
- 8:33Rd. dog. On the other hand, East Texas
- 8:35A&M 11 and 18, they've dropped three of their last four.
- 8:38Just came up short against Incarnate Word 82 to 73.
- 8:42Lost outright as a 3 1/2 point home favorite.
- 8:45So just sitting across the market here.
- 8:47Well, this game opened with East Texas A&M listed around a 2 1/2
- 8:51point home favorite. And again, the important thing
- 8:53here is this is an added extra game.
- 8:55Game 306-601-3066 O2. So we got to look at it a little
- 8:59bit differently than a big, you know, Louisville, UNC or in a
- 9:02second here, Houston, Kansas. It's not a heavily bet.
- 9:04Got to have ESPN Plus if you want to watch it.
- 9:06But what do we always talk about?
- 9:08Games that are low bet obscure, sharp line moves.
- 9:11Important to us because even though the public may not care
- 9:14or have any interest in betting, you know, Houston Christian,
- 9:17East Texas A&M. Once again, I'll give you the
- 9:18mascot test off the top of your head.
- 9:20Can you name me the mascots for either of these teams?
- 9:23Well, Houston Christian is the Huskies, East Texas is the
- 9:26Lions. But again, the point being,
- 9:28public wants nothing to do with this game. 2 bad teams, 2 losing
- 9:30records. You know, a tiny little match up
- 9:33that no one cares about. However, we have seen movement
- 9:36toward East Texas A&M. East Texas A&M went from -2 1/2
- 9:40some shops up to -3 they did reach as high as -3 1/2 earlier
- 9:44today. So all move in liability has
- 9:46been on the side of East Texas A&M.
- 9:50Again, important to me because it's a low bet obscure game.
- 9:52The splits look pretty good on East Texas A&M, 67% of spread
- 9:55bets, 74% of spread dollars. And I wouldn't call that 67%
- 10:00public because it's a low bet game.
- 10:02So it's probably mostly sharp to have targeted this match up.
- 10:05Now, Ken Palm is East Texas A&M winning by 4 points, 71 to 67.
- 10:10So if you want to lay a 2 1/2, three, 3 1/2, OK, Ken Palms got
- 10:13a win by 4. This makes me just want to, you
- 10:16know, be more confident in my money line play.
- 10:18So I did money line East Texas. I got them at -150 as well, same
- 10:21price as Louisville. Still, you can probably get
- 10:24around -150 -, 155, although I do see one book at -160.
- 10:30But I like that. He also has the Lions ranked
- 10:32higher, 283rd versus 200 and 98th for the Huskies.
- 10:36And if you look at Circa again, who's walking up to the window
- 10:40at Circa sharp hook in Vegas saying give me East Texas A and
- 10:43MI would assume it's people who know what they're doing.
- 10:46So at Circa, 50% money line bets, 71% of money line dollars
- 10:51on the Lions at home, East Texas A&M has the better defensive
- 10:55efficiency, 195th in the country versus 200 and 98th.
- 10:59So they play better defense. They hold their opponents to a
- 11:01better effective field goal percentage, 257th versus 300 and
- 11:0528th now East Texas A&M, they're only six and seven at home, so
- 11:09not a great home record. But Houston Christian is 2 and
- 11:1214 on the road. That's the second worst Rd.
- 11:15record in their conference, the Southland Conference.
- 11:18Also hopefully some added motivation here, but we have
- 11:20East Texas A&M having gone to Houston Christian back in mid
- 11:24January. They lost 81 to 70.
- 11:26So a chance here to hopefully get some revenge.
- 11:29So it's a tiny little match up, but it's pretty clear the
- 11:31splits, the line movement all toward East Texas A&M.
- 11:34And oh, by the way, East Texas A&M has an 8%, nothing huge, but
- 11:39an 8% sharp mush edge on the money line from our friends at
- 11:42Juice Rail. So 8% more of the sharper
- 11:44winning betters who have downloaded Juice Rail synced up
- 11:46their books. They're also going with East
- 11:48Texas A&M. So I'm on East Texas A&M, Lions
- 11:51win the damn game on the money line.
- 11:53I got -150 now last bed of the night.
- 11:56Cannot wait to sweat this one. It is so gross.
- 11:59It is so sharp. I cut my finger on my on my app
- 12:02when I put this in started bleeding all over my phone.
- 12:04Just kidding, I didn't, but that tells you how sharp it is. 9:00
- 12:07PM the big boy, the big matchup tonight, Houston and Kansas.
- 12:11Now Houston comes in 23 and 4 ranked second in the country.
- 12:15But they did lose 2 straight. They just fell to Arizona 73 to
- 12:1966. They're a six point home
- 12:21favorite on that one. Lost the game out right.
- 12:23Meanwhile, Kansas 20 and seven, they're ranked 8th in the
- 12:26country. They've lost two of their last
- 12:27three and just got beat up by Cincinnati. 84 to 68 lost out
- 12:31rate as an 8 1/2 point home favorite.
- 12:34So what is it across the market here?
- 12:35Well, this game open with Houston listed around a 1 1/2
- 12:38point Rd. favorite and the public.
- 12:40This is where the gamblers fallacy comes into play.
- 12:42The public says that line is so short, Houston is the better
- 12:45team and there's no way, there's no possible way that the
- 12:50powerhouse Houston Cougars can lose three in a row.
- 12:53Just can't happen. They cannot lose three in a row.
- 12:55They're so good it can't happen. That's what the gambler's
- 12:58fallacy is. Gambler's fallacy says just
- 12:59because something has happened a lot recently doesn't mean it's
- 13:03immediately going to flip or vice versa.
- 13:05So example, good teams, what do you think?
- 13:08They have to bounce back and win.
- 13:09They're due. Anytime you hear a, you know, a
- 13:12handicapper or someone who you listen to talk about a pic
- 13:15saying this team is due, I automatically say you're
- 13:18revealing yourself as, as a gambler's fallacy play.
- 13:21But it's not about something being due.
- 13:23And the, the great example of gambler's fallacy, it happened
- 13:25in Monaco, I think in like 1912 or something, where the legend
- 13:29has it that they're at this Monaco casino and it landed on
- 13:32red like 25 times in a row. And so, and basically after like
- 13:36the 10th spin, everyone kept betting black, black, black.
- 13:39But because it was due, it had to happen.
- 13:41It happened eventually, but not after like 15 more spins and
- 13:43everyone got cleaned out. So that's the gambler's fallacy.
- 13:46Don't bet something just because it's due.
- 13:48Now Houston may win this game and cover the number, but it's
- 13:51not because they're due. It's because you know they're
- 13:53the better team. They played better.
- 13:55But with that being said, everyone's saying it's got to be
- 13:58Houston tonight. 69% of spread bets at DraftKings running as
- 14:01fast as they can to lay the chalk with the Cougars.
- 14:04Now this -2 -? 1 1/2 for Houston.
- 14:07It did get bet up as high as -2 1/2, but since that time it's
- 14:11come back down to 1 1/2. So we are basically looking at a
- 14:14contrarian line freeze in favor of Kansas.
- 14:17And basically what that means is the opening number was -1 and
- 14:20half. We're still -1 and half.
- 14:22Why aren't we up to -3 -, 4 if everyone and their mother's on
- 14:25Houston, you know, why aren't the odds makers, you know,
- 14:28increasing this number to make it more difficult to back
- 14:32Houston? Nope, they're not doing that.
- 14:34So it tells me that they have liability and they are basically
- 14:36more fearful of giving out a better number to Kansas backers.
- 14:40So I like The Jayhawks in this one, guys.
- 14:41Sharp line freeze, everybody and their mother on Houston.
- 14:45So not only is it the number one contrarian play of the night,
- 14:47only 31% of spread bets at DK are on Kansas.
- 14:51It's also your late night ESPN game, but you have not just a
- 14:54contrarian play, but an element of smart money with that line
- 14:56freeze. Again, why are we at the same
- 14:58number even though everyone's playing Houston tells me smart
- 15:01money here on Jayhawks. Now you look at circa, only 21%
- 15:05spread bets, but 54% of spread dollars are on Kansas.
- 15:09So really good split out there in Vegas.
- 15:12Ken Palm is Houston winning, but only by 1.69 to 68.
- 15:16So plus 1 1/2. Some value there.
- 15:19Did notice Kansas has a advantage in terms of effective
- 15:23field goal percentage, 92nd versus 147th, better three-point
- 15:27shooting, 90th versus 179th. Now this reminds me a little bit
- 15:30if you guys remember, I don't know if it was last week or the
- 15:32week before, but remember we had Kansas at home against Arizona
- 15:35where everyone was on Arizona and that line kept dropping
- 15:37toward Kansas. Reminds me similar spot here to
- 15:40back The Jayhawks. So gambler's fallacy says
- 15:43Houston's awesome. They cannot in in any in any
- 15:45situation lose three in a row. But liability sharp contrarian
- 15:49splits system matches here on Kansas.
- 15:52There's a 10% sharp mush edge from our friends at Juice Reel
- 15:56on Kansas and rhythm has Kansas. I have two models, Kansas plus
- 15:590.9 and Kansas -0.2. So basically it's a pick em
- 16:04game. So I jumped on Kansas plus 1 1/2
- 16:08at -1 O 5. That is a bit of a reduced juice
- 16:12play every books at 1 1/2. Although I do see Caesar's at
- 16:15+2. So if you haven't bet it yet and
- 16:17you have access to Caesar's, I'd grab the +2.
- 16:20But I'm sitting pretty or not pretty, but I'm sitting steady
- 16:23here sticking with my original bet Kansas plus 1 1/2 And let's
- 16:27let's just hope they win this game out right And there's a
- 16:29crazy stack going around. Bill Self I think is 40 and O39
- 16:33and O and his last Monday home games or something.
- 16:36Again, I'll take it. If they win, I'll take it.
- 16:39But I think it's a good angle here to go against the public.
- 16:42So two biggest games tonight, Louisville, Kansas, we can go
- 16:45against the public. And then East Texas A&M, we can
- 16:48follow an obscure sharp line move.
- 16:50So Louisville money line, East Texas money line, Kansas plus 1
- 16:541/2, we can get it to even better.
- 16:56So that about does it for episode 460 of the All Systems
- 16:59Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 17:03This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up.
- 17:05And I always start first by saying thank you.
- 17:07Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in.
- 17:09Thank you for grinding in the arena with me every single day
- 17:12through the UPS and the downs, the good and the bad, the hot
- 17:14streaks, the cold streaks, grinding 2 and ones, being
- 17:17annoyed at 1 and twos, celebrating 3 and O's being
- 17:21frustrated O and threes. Hey, that's life.
- 17:23That's betting we're gonna have good days and bad days.
- 17:25But what I do enjoy is hosting this pod and talking through all
- 17:30the games from a data-driven perspective.
- 17:32So if you enjoy it as well and you want to help me grow this
- 17:35podcast, please could you give it a five star review on Spotify
- 17:38or iTunes If you want to leave a comment under the review tab, if
- 17:42you want to click the follow button.
- 17:43That way you get a pop up on your phone when it drops each
- 17:45afternoon or you would like to recommend the pod to a friend or
- 17:48retweet the pod when I put it out on Twitter at Josh under
- 17:51score insights. I would very much appreciate any
- 17:53or all of those things. But seriously, thank you for
- 17:56listening. Next, if you enjoy the style of
- 17:59betting breakdown data-driven sharp contrarian bedding
- 18:02focusing on line movement bet split system matches seeing what
- 18:05you know rhythm in industrial are are telling us, but most of
- 18:09all betting with our head and not our heart following the
- 18:11market trying to keep our bias at the door.
- 18:13Yeah Houston can't lose three in a row.
- 18:15You got a hammer Houston tonight.
- 18:17OK well what's the market saying Market saying liability Kansas.
- 18:20So we're going Kansas. But again, if this style betting
- 18:24is appealed to you, you find it interesting you want to learn
- 18:26more about data-driven betting. You want to let me know you
- 18:28appreciate the pod. You have someone in your life,
- 18:30family member, colleague, friend, whoever who wants to get
- 18:33into sports betting or bets and loses a lot and can't tell you
- 18:36their reasoning for making a bet.
- 18:38They just say, oh, that it felt that way.
- 18:40We'll get away from feelings. Stick with data, stick with
- 18:42numbers. If you'd like to learn more, you
- 18:44can go to Amazon.com. I'd be honored if you wanted to
- 18:47buy one or both my books. Just type in the NFL Sharp
- 18:51Betting Playbook or the Everything Guide to Sports
- 18:53Betting. Grab one or both, bring the
- 18:55sports book. I'll sign you.
- 18:56I'll sign them for you and buy a beer or ginger ale if I can.
- 18:59If I can shovel out and get to the book, I'll be I'll be doing
- 19:01that for you next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
- 19:05Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
- 19:07apps. They help me when they're going
- 19:09to help you win. Rhythm.
- 19:10Fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions for game
- 19:13bets and player props. Reminder Thursday night as we do
- 19:16every Thursday night, 6:00 PM, we'll have our rhythm rundown.
- 19:19So looking forward to that myself, my buddy Kate Harper,
- 19:22but then also Juice Reel. Juice Reel has a lot of great
- 19:24features. Of course I'm going to pass the
- 19:26hat if you'd like to. Again, this pod is free so if
- 19:29you'd like to support the pod tip your podcast host, let me
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- 19:43It's literally $4.99 a week. Basically 5 bucks and you'll get
- 19:47a full week's worth of plays. So you can tell Faye do what you
- 19:51like. But again, you go out to dinner,
- 19:53the bartender takes care of you. You tip the bartender, you go,
- 19:56you go out to dinner. The you know, the the server
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- 20:02You give them a tip. Enjoy the pod.
- 20:05I'll take tips in the form of the the ASG best bets from juice
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- 20:17So download Rhythm. Download Juice Reel, give them
- 20:19both a five star review in the App Store.
- 20:22Next you have a live odds page. If you don't have one, you need
- 20:25one. You got to be able to track the
- 20:27market. You got to be able to figure out
- 20:29all the games available to you to bet that day, the start
- 20:31times, the live scoring, the live in game wagering odds that
- 20:34update as the game is progressing.
- 20:37Maybe I'll provide you an in game opportunity.
- 20:39Or, of course, what I like to do is all my research prior to the
- 20:42game, which is your preflop bet, by focusing on how the market is
- 20:46moved. What what the line open at your
- 20:48opening column. That never changes.
- 20:49All the current odds to the right can immediately see which
- 20:52direction the line is moved. You can pull up the line
- 20:54history. OK, it's 1 1/2.
- 20:56It's still 1 1/2. OK, pull up the line history.
- 20:57Did it go up to two? Did it get down to one?
- 21:00These are key pieces of info that you need to find out.
- 21:02You can do this all as well as shopping for the best number,
- 21:05finding that +2 on Kansas when everyone else is plus 1 1/2 by
- 21:09signing up for Odds Logic, the best live odds page around.
- 21:13All you got to do is go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
- 21:18That'll give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your first
- 21:21month of service. So that about does it guys.
- 21:24Another pod here in the books. As always, I'll leave you with
- 21:27two final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
- 21:29Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
- 21:32Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
- 21:35Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino,
- 21:38MGM Springfield or the Nash. And my neck of the woods on the
- 21:41border of Massachusetts and New Hampshire are out in the desert
- 21:44where the true grinders get down.
- 21:45Or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice
- 21:48possible is found at the South Point.
- 21:50Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
- 21:53swim pool when you catch a big ticket at Circa, or maybe you're
- 21:56going to walk up to me, you're going to show me a nice sweep
- 21:58from Friday. Remember Friday, guys, Iona,
- 22:01Detroit, Brown, show me one or all those tickets.
- 22:05Guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
- 22:07you. We'll post about the book.
- 22:08Sweat, sharp, contrarian plays all night long.
- 22:11So as always, guys coming off with three and O or O and three,
- 22:14A1 and 2A2 and one again, a great night, a terrible night.
- 22:17A hot streak, a cold streak. We're going to be hot sometimes,
- 22:20we're going to be cold sometimes over, always grinding.
- 22:22We're never getting too high on ourselves and things are going
- 22:24well. We're never getting too low and
- 22:25in the dumps when things aren't going our way.
- 22:27We just got to stick to the model, stay disciplined with our
- 22:30bankroll management and play the system matches and avoid the
- 22:33potholes, avoid the ones with red flags.
- 22:35But you might know by now if you don't, looking for games that
- 22:37are against the public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
- 22:41avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
- 22:45to be successful sports bettors. So have a great Monday
- 22:47everybody. Again, forget if you're like me
- 22:49getting ready to go out and shovel again, don't don't go too
- 22:52ham, don't go too hard. Take it easy and hopefully we'll
- 22:56we'll we'll stay snowed in and and cash some tickets tonight,
- 22:59which is always the goal. So look forward to seeing
- 23:01everyone tomorrow. That'll be a big Tuesday edition
- 23:03episode 461 of the all systems go sports betting podcast
- 23:08powered by rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
- 23:11great Monday night.