Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB Best Bets Sunday 2/15/26

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NCAAB Best Bets Sunday 2/15/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Oh in four, I
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: have not had a good season. Man with wookends the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins hat Man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: March hate? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what day it is anymore. But I
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back with
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: at least ohe and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I've ever had. In my eighteen years doing this, I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slump,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the slump, discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up? Everybody's
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: towed back with you with Toadstool Sports. It is Sunday,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: February fifteenth. We didn't do great yesterday on the shows
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: two and two. I was pretty confident starting out because
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: we got the easy, outright well not outright easy, blowout
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: win with Iowa State easily covering that number there no
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: question about it. But then we started failing with Charleston Southern.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Don't know what happened in that game. I didn't watch
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: any of that game, but they were like, they were
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: within six points with not that long left in the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: first half, I'm pretty sure, and then all of a sudden,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: they're down twenty at halftime, like what is going on here?
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: They wound up losing by ten. I don't think they
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: ever got back into it. That was bad. Iowa got
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: absolutely blown out. I don't know what to tell you
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: about that either. Iowa could not score at all in
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: that game. Very surprising because Purdue was not an elite
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: defensive team. I don't know what happened in that game.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: And then we did finish the day with a win
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: with Texas, so we did go two and two. We
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: move on to today. I have some opinions on today's
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: college basketball. We have only college basketball today. I didn't
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: even see who won the NBA stuff. I did not
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: even see. I'm gonna look right now who won it
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: three point contests? Who won it was Lillard? Oh, I
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: was right. And then Johnson won the dunk contest. I
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: don't know about that, but hey, my lean was correct
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: in in the three point condess. It looks like there
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: you go. All right, yeah, let's get into it. I'm
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: gonna give about one play in college basketball. I have
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: a few that are like there are a few games
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: where I'm like, I want to make like, well, there
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: are a few that were close to being plays for me.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Let's say I landed on one that I thought was
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: actually strong enough, and I considered having no plays. We
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: can get right into it, man, Espnu had Now we
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: have UTSA at Charlotte. This is a horrendous game. I
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: don't know why this game is on TV. UTSA is abysmal.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: They don't even have a win in conference in the
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: American Conference. Charlotte is not even that good, although they're
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: a double digit favored in this one, because UTSA is
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: that bad a. UTSA already lost at home to Charlotte
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: by sixteen points, so Charlotte might not take them seriously.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: UTSA might be in a situation where I'm gonna be
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: trying to get a win to spare themselves some embarrassment.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I would say of a of a winless season in conference.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Charlotte is coming up a pretty ugly loss to Memphis,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: but still that was kind of a big game. They
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: did lose by a lost twenty three, but they also
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: have Tulsa on deck. I would probably have to lean
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: to UTSA in this one, just knowing that Charlotte is
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: not that good. Don't know how motivated Charlotte is going
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: to be to really win this game by a huge margin.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: They're fourteen and a half point favorite, seventy nine percent
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, only fifty one percent of the cash.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: So the market read is saying to take the points
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: of UTSA. I will not disagree with that, but no
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: strong read on that game at all ESPN at noon,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Utah is at Cincinnati. Utah comes into this game off
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: of a couple of covers in a row, I think
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: against Kansas and Houston. I think it was more of
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the case that those two teams just didn't pay attention
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: to them in Utah. Still law Utah is terrible, certainly,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: way worse than those two teams, although they're stepping down
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: a class to play Cincinnati. Cincinnati not as good as that,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: and Cincinnati is laying a lot of points here. I
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: could see this read going one of two ways here really,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: because you might look at like people might look at
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: this and think eleven and a half is just a
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: huge number to be laying with a Cincinnati team that's
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: just above five hundred barely, So there is that way
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: to look at it. But the other way to look
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: at it is that Cincinnati stinks on offense and the
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: spot isn't exactly that great for them. Is they just
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: killed Kansas State. Kansas State's not good, but still, you mean,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: anybody almost thirty points on the road, you're gonna be
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: feeling pretty good about yourselves. And they got Kansas and
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech on deck. Don't believe they played Utah this year.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: This might be the only time they played them. But
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: considering all of that, I think I would probably have
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: to take the points with Utah in this one. It
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: does look like Cincinnati is still a public see public
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: just wants nothing to do with Utah. Seventy percent of
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: the tickets, sixty nine percent of the cash at Cincinnati,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: and Mike I was alluding to laying a ton of points.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: So Cincinnati is usually not a good idea because they
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: can't score. They mostly focus on defense, even though they
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: do actually play fast. Cincinnati down from eleven and a
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: half to eleven total his law in the one forties.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: I think it makes sense Celen towards taking the points
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: in that one. Fox Sports won at noon Maryland at Rutgers.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Maryland is coming off two big upsets in a row,
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: the upset in Minnesota on the road. Now, it was
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: big as far as the number, because I think Maryland
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: was probably at least a seven point underdog in that one,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: although I don't know if mentally you think it's that
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: big to beat Minnesota. But then Maryland turned around and
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: they beat Iowa. And I believe Maryland, even though they
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: were at home. They were like double digit underdogs in
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: that game. So they're coming off two monster wins and
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: now they get this horrible Rutgers team here on the road.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: At least from Maryland. They only have to go up
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: to New New Jersey for this, but so it's not
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: a horrible travel spot for them going from home to Rutgers.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: But Rutgers, I mean right out, they're looking for a
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: win because they haven't had one in seven games. They're
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: coming off I guess, a respectable loss at home to
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Nebraska only losing by twelve. Staying at home with Maryland
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: coming off a big upset like that, I think I
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: would have to lean towards Rutgers in this one. Not
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: going to be anything that makes my card. The money
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: is completely disagreeing. The money is saying Maryland on this.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: I don't see it. I could not back Maryland, a
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: horrible team off of a huge upset win like that.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: I couldn't do it. Rutgers has dropped from two and
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: a half to one and a half. Here fifty one
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on Rutgers, seventy seven percent of
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: the cash on Maryland. Though I don't really see how
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Rutgers would be a public side in this game, though,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Like you would think that the public would see, oh, well,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Maryland has ten wins now they just pulled off that
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: win over Iowa, getting like at least a point and
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: a half. You're like, why would you not? Why would
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: the public? I don't think that the public could be
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: on Rutgers in this game, is what I'm saying. So
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: I don't really know what to make of those market
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: percentages there, but those are my thoughts on that. CBS
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: at one PM, Eastern Indiana at number eight Illinois. This
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: is actually a pretty good game, even though Illinois will
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: be a big favorite here. Indiana they might have a
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: little bit more motivation in this one because they're trying
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: to make the tournament still where it's Illinois obviously will
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: be in it regardless of what happens from here on out.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Pretty much Indiana, they're on a nice little run here.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: They beat Oregon in their last game, an easy win,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: but still that will be kind of a momentum continuing
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: win coming into this one Illinois. Illinois might be in
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: bounced back mode two though, and that's kind of the
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: problem because they did take their first loss in a
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: long time when they lost some Michigan State and what
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: was also a huge game. So I told you I
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: thought Illinois would be hung over coming off of that,
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: because when a team loses a lot on win streak,
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: especially in a big game like that, they do have
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: a tendency to be hung over in the next game.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: And they lost at home as a big favorite to Wisconsin,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: so you could make the argument that Illinois will actually
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: show up and bounce back off of that. I can't
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: do anything with this game the way I handicap him.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: From a side perspective, I would probably lean towards Indiana
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: plus the points, though Illinois does also they slow the
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: game down now, so they're a different Illinois team than
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: what were used to over the last few years, even
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: though they are a good offensive team as well, still
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: not great on defense, I think, which is why the
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: total is in the one fifties. But fifty five percent
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: of the tickets around Illinois sixty percent of the cash
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: on Indiana. With both teams showing up focus, I just
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: think maybe the line value might be on playing the
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: team that's not ranked, although Illinois is definitely deserving of
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: that ranking, if not high or so. I got to
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: bring up ken Bom again here, But yeah, ken bomb
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: as Illinois seventh right now? All right? Holy Cross at
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Loyal and Maryland. The only thing I could really say
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: is that holy Cross just played Colgate fairly tough, even
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: though holy Cross was losing by double digits pretty late
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: in that game. They made a late comeback that was
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: too little, too late. But you could make the argument
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: they played tough and they took Colgate almost to the
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: wire they're sort of, and that they got back to
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: within four pretty late in the game. At the very least,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: I don't believe they played No. They have not played
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Loyal in Maryland yet this year, so it would just
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: simply be a hangover spot for holy Cross in this one.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: And they're having to go to Maryland to play this game,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: which is one of the spots where they'd have to
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: go further away from their home in the conference. Loyal
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: and Maryland just won on the road at Lafayette, which
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: was a decent win, was a revenge win. They only
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: have Army on deck, though, which is not really going
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: to be a big deal. Army is a terrible team.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: But I think I would probably lead to Loyal and
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Maryland in this one if I was going to do
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: anything with it all they did drop from a four
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: and a half poay favorite two a three and a
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: half point favorite low total in the one forties. Just
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: do with all the information what you want to man
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Denver and Omaha and CBS Sports at one PM. My
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: first instinct on this was we should fade Omaha in
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: this game because they're coming off two big games now
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: where they played actually pretty tough against North Dakota State
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: on the road. Actually after playing North Dakota difficult on
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: the road as well. Both those teams near the top
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: of the conference. North Dakota State is in the driver's
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: scene in the conference. Those are two big games. And
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: then Omaha beat Saint Thomas, who might actually still be
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: the best team in this conference. Huge win for Omaha
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: against Saint Thomas, although they were only four and a
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: half point underdogs in that one because they were at home,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: but Saint Thomas was on like a nice run as
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: a road favorite like Saint Thomas I think hadn't lost
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: as a road favorite for many many games in a row.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Pretty big win for Omaha. Man, now they're playing a
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Denver team that they already beat on the road. However,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: they don't have anything up next. They got Oral Roberts next,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: which is not a big deal at all. They're horrible,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: but I do think it's a letdown spot. Plus maybe
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Omaha won't take Denver as seriously even though their win
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: at Denver was close. Denver comes into this game often
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: win over Celtdakota State though, which Celtakota State not having
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: a good season. But I still think when you beat
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Celticota State there's kind of that like, I don't know,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: I think it's a decent win as far as like
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: a name. They have a lot of name recognition in
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: the Summit League, so it's not just like a whatever
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: type of win really, especially it was in revenge actually
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: for Denver because they lost at Celtdakota State earlier this year.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: So I don't want to do it, but I would
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: lean to Denver in this one. I think the spot
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: does set up better for them money. Again, disagree with
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: me on this one. Omaha is a two and a
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, seventy four percent of the cash on
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: them and sixty percent of the tickets on Denver. That
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense to me. You would think that
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: the way Omaha has been playing. You would think the
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: public would not really want to be on Denver in
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: this one. All tho the teams have the same records
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: and you know, taking the points, sometimes the public will
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: lean that way, but I don't know. The public is
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: very Recentcy biased too, although yeah, Denver's won a couple
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: of games in a row two so I don't know,
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: but I will stay off of that game. Just a
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: lot of these games have some interesting handicapping aspects to them.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Youngstown stayed at Detroit in the Horizon. This is an
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: interesting one too, as Youngstown's coming to have a win
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: at Oakland, so I'm like, oh, they could be in
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot off of that. That was a nice
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: win over one of the top teams in the Horizon.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: I dug into it a little bit. Oakland was actually
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: only like a three and a half point favored in
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: that one, so Youngstown is actually better than the record
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: looks according to the oddsmakers. Now they're playing a second
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: straight road game though, a third road game and four games,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: so that's not that easy. But they do only have
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Cleveland State on deck, and I know Cleveland State went
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: on a nice run in the middle of the season
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: and actually Youngstown only beat them by two on the road,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: So I guess there is the possibility that maybe they
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: will take Cleveland State seriously going into that next game.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: But they're not gonna overlook Detroit. I don't or actually,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: excuse me, they might overlook Detroit or no, excuse me,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: what am I saying? I'm all messed up right now.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna overlook Detroit because they did
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: lose at home already to Detroit. So there is a
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: road revenge angle here for Youngstown. And presumably they were
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: a decent sized favorite when they lost that game. Yeah,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: they're nine and a half point favorites, So I think
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: there is a legitimate road revenge angle to look at
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: here our Youngstown will make the adjustments and actually take
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Detroit seriously. So I started looking at it. Initially I
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: was like, oh, young sounds in a letdown spot of Oakland,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: but now I'm looking to But then I looked at
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: the game from like every other aspect of it, and
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: everything else puts me on Youngstown in this one. Detroit
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Mercy is actually coming off a bigger upset at Right State.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: They were like eleven and a half point underdogs. In
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: this one, man, Detroit Mercy is not not as good
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: as their record looks to the odds makers are really
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: telling you there's a disparity here between Youngstown and and
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Detroit Mercy here, so I think Detroit Mercy might actually
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: be in the bigger letdown spot here. Though. They are
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: coming back home from the three game road trip, which
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: is not a bad thing in college, and they don't
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: have a big game on up next. They have Milwaukee,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: who they already beat on the road, so it's not
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: as big of a deal, I don't think. But they
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: did beat Youngstown on the road already. They are coming
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: off the bigger upset, so you know, take all that
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: into consideration. I do actually lean to Youngstown in this one.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: They're off from two and a half to three and
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: a half here, so again, the odds makers are telling
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: you something. It looks like a pretty weird line right
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: where you see both teams. The teams have pretty similar records.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Detroit Mercy actually have a better record in conference at Youngstown
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: laying points on the road, but that's for a reason
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: they are actually the significantly better team. I would lay
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: it in that one, but the money looks like it's
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: on Detroit, and I don't understand why eighty percent of
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: the tickets on Youngstown seventy four percent of the cash
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: on Detroit. So again that's the information for you on
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: that one. I'm skipping the game personally, So yeah, a
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: lot a lot to considering that game. Though both teams,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: you could still make the argument that both teams are
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: in letdown spots on that one. It's a very interesting
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: game from a handicapping perspective. But it also it gets
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it weirds me out when I see
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: the market completely opposite me, where sometimes i'm sometimes I
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: will get it right and the market will get it right.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: I think more often than not I get it right
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: when I when I disagree with the market. So I
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, But we'll see. What else do we
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: have here Bradley and Southern Illinois. I believe Bradley is
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot here. Yeah, they just beat Belmont.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: That was a huge win for Bradley. Belmont had not
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: lost for quite a while. While I was a revenge
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: loss as well, Bradley had lost at Belmont. Huge win anyway.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: You look at Belmont, the best team in the Missouri
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Valley so I could see this being a let down
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: spot for Bradley. Here they're playing Southern Illinois, who they
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: did already beat. However, Bradley only beat them by four
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: earlier this year at home, and Bradley did not cover.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: There were six and a half point favorites in that one,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: So there may be an aspect of this, or maybe
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: they'll take Southern Illinois seriously. Bradley only has Valpole on deck, unfortunately,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: because they already beat Valpol, that's not a look ahead.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: If they had Illinois State next, who they got clobbered
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: by on the road, that would be a lot better.
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: But that game's after the Valpole game. I think I
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: might actually give out Southern Illinois a play. If Illinois
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: State was literally the next game for Bradley, they'd be
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: in a sandwich spot. As it stands, they are still
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: in a let down spot. I talk about how Southern
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: Illinois has been a very undervalued commodity this year, and
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are telling you that too. Southern Illinois is
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: coming off a win over Evansville, easy win for them,
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: so they should be coasting into this game with some momentum.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: But you look at this line Southern Illinois is a
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: below five hundred team and they're laying three and a half.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: I know they get home court advantage and whatever, but
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: the osbeakers are really telling you something by having Southern
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: Illinois laying three and a half against Bradley, who has
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: the way better record. You gotta think the public is
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: gonna be all over Bradley in a situation like that. However,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: the percentages in the market look like they're not bearing
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: that out right now. I would lean to Southern Illinois
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: in this one. I think it's a letdown spot plus
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: a misleading line, so I would have to lean that way.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: They're up from two to three as a favorite here,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: not quite three and a half, but fifty six percent
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on Southern Illinois fifty six percent of
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: the cash on Bradley. I don't know what's going on
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: with that market read I could only see laying it
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: with Southern Illinois in that game. And of course, as
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: I always point out, you know, Southern Illinois is a
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: very unlucky team. They're the fifth unluckiest team in the
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: country according to BOMB, so that's one thing to look at.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: They're actually very good on defense forty first overall on defense. However,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: they're not a good scoring team. But ken Bum has
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: them better than Bradley. Believe it or not, he has
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Southern Illinois like twenty ranking spots higher than Bradley, and
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: he is Bradley is a very lucky team fifty third
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: in luck and Bradley more balanced but definitely worse on
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: defense but better on offense. And Bradley is kind of
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: a mid temp bo team. So it's stands to reason
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: that Southern Illinois will try to speed the game up
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: because they do go fast. They're one of those weird
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: teams that goes fast, but they play defense and don't
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: really score well, kind of like Cincinnati. So ken Bum
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: with his luck index, though he does bear out what
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: I just said for Southern Illinois way away underperforming right now.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: They're way better than the record looks, and Bradley is
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: not as good as the record looks. So that's all
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind there. And I forgot to
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: do the same check for Youngstown. But as I was
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: just talking about, Youngstown is like the eighth unluckiest team
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: in the nation according to ken Bomb, So again the
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: odds makers are kind of telling you what ken Bomb
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: is telling you here that Youngstown is way underperformed as well.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: So just like I said, whereas Detroit Mercy is eighty
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: sixth the lock according to ken Bombs. Another situation, there
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: are those two games that has talked about where the
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: line looks kind of misleading. Whatever. Yeah, ken Bum's luck
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: index bears that out. So the odds makers, dude, the
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers have a ton of money at stake. They know
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: more than Like, they're able to tell you more information
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: than what the than what the records tell you. Records
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: can be misleading, man, Whereas the odds makers they are
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: actually using like valuable information to set their lines, you
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: know what I mean, even though their goal is not
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: to predict the outcome. Their goal is to split the
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: money and to make money. But still they have more
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: information going into that line than what the the records
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: will tell you. So because up sets and fluke results happen. Garrett,
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: what's up, man? You're killing it? Well, that's good. I
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: am not. I've been I don't know, treading water. For
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: the most part. You're doing a lot of props, right,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: I don't know. For college, there's no way that I
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: can do anything with props. I don't even know if
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: we're allowed to actually probably in Massachusetts. I don't even
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: think you can do it. ESPN two two pm. South
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: Florida at Florida Atlantic. So we have two Florida rivals here,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: if you will. South Florida is on a three game
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: win streak, a couple of pretty good wins in a
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: row against Tulsa and then on the road at Wichita.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Not a bad not a bad win there either. Now,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: second straight road game at FAU, and they got Memphis
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: on deck, and there is the possibility that Memphis is
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: gonna be a bigger game for them than FAU because
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: FAU has actually fallen behind Memphis and the standings, and
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: South Florida already beat FAU at home by four teen points,
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: so there's a chance they might not totally pay attention
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: to FAU in this one. Second straight road game traveling
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: back to Florida from Wichita, I would have to lean
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: to FAU in this one. FAU is coming off a
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: really ugly loss at Rice, but you can kind of
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: explain what happened there. FAU. They're on a five game skid,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: so I don't think anybody's really gonna want them right now.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: But that Rice game, look at what they were doing. Man,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: they had to travel to Houston to play Rice on
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: the heels of almost beating Tulsa. Tulsa I still believe
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: is the best team in this conference. Even though they're
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: they're they're fading recently. That was still a horrible spot
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: for Florida Atlantic having to travel to Houston coming off
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: that huge game against Tulsa. So you can kind of
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: explain what happened in that game. I would lean to
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Florida Atlantic plus the points in this one. South Florida
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: laying four and a half now on the road up
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: from four seventy five percent of the tickets on South
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Florida only fifty two percent of the cash, so they
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: are a public side with less of the money on
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: them in a TV game on ESPN two. It's one
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: of the more interesting games of the day for sure,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: probably the best game in the American Conference today. But yeah,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: I would take the points, so maybe it's even more interesting. Yeah.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: I agreed with Arkansas on the spread and that one,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: but that one, that one was not on my card. Yeah,
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: that was a good call. I don't really know much
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: about the total there, but I probably would have leaned
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: against an under in that game Arkansas. They don't. They
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: basically just always play overs. They play fast, and they
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: don't play defense, so they're They're not the style of
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: team that I would want to be playing unders with.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: I think Auburn plays fast as well, if I'm not
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: mistaken ESPN U at two pm. This is the game
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: that I decided on to actually add to my card,
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: the best bet, the only one. And you know me
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: because I gave out U A B as a play
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: in their previous game. So what am I doing this time? Well,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: I'm fading them because that was a win. So now
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: we're gonna fade them with Tulane here taking the points
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: with Tulane, and I know Tulane is a lucky team
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: mcquordinge to Kembom, so not exactly the type of team
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: I'm really gonna want to back very often. They're not
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: a very good defensive team ken bomb as in the
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: sixteenth luckiest team. I get that that's not good, but
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: looking at the fact they're playing U A B. U
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: A B is a fairly lucky team as well. They're
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: in the top half of luck at least. Aquoringe to
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Kembom and they're not that much better than Julane, at
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: least according to what ken BOM's got going on here.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna look at it from a situational perspective.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Though more so than anything else, ken bum doesn't really
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: have any like, you know, wide disparity between these team
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: that it's gonna keep me off of it. But if
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: you remember, I gave you UAB as a player in
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: their last game and they upset Tulsa on the road.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: That was a monster win for ua B And you
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: remember My reasoning was UAB didn't play well the previous
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: game against Rice. They'd played Memphis the game before. That's
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: they're kind of in a sandwich spot there against Rice.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: They overlooked Rice, barely got by them. I thought it
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: was a much much bigger game for them against Tulsa.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: And Tulsa was coming off a close call where they
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: lost their long win streak as well in a big
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: game against South Florida, so I thought they were in
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: a bad spot. And they had already beaten UAB by
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: twenty two on the road, so it was a road
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: revenge angle. So all of that came into play for me.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: And then Tulsa by the way did suffer another loss
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: after that, interestingly enough, where I thought maybe they were
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: gonna have the ability to bounce back where they actually
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: lost at Wichita yesterday. I think so. Tulsa's on a
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: skid right now. But anyway, we're talking about UAB here.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: UAB pulled off the huge win and you could see
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: why they caught Tulsa in a spot where Tulsa was
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: likely to overlook them, which is why I gave out
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: UAB there. Now I think UAB is in the spot
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: where they're gonna overlook Tulane because they're coming off a
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: monster win, one of their biggest wins of the season
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Man in Revenge on the road, pulling off like a
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: almost a double digit upset against the best team in
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: the conference, Tulsa, knocking them from their pedestal. There, huge
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: win for UAB. Now they get Tulane at home, and
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Tulane's a team they already beat on the road by thirteen.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: So even though I know Tulane's not as good as
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: they looked early in the season, UAB just might not
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: take them seriously enough to cover this number. Man and
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: UAB does have Temple next. Temple is second in the conference, now,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, in standings, even though I don't
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: think they're the second best team, but that might even
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: cause UAB to look ahead as well. So at the
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: very very least, it's a huge letdown spot off a
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: huge upset and a road revenge spot for Tulane. Here
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: so and huge letdown spot for UAB, I mean revenge
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: spot for Tulane. Where again revenge, it's more the case
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: that the team that won in an outlier game in
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: the first game will overlook that team, whereas the team
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: that got blown out will have the adjustments to make
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: man So it's not really revenge like oh this team
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: is really are, But it does have to do with
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: like how focused the teams are gonna be now. Tulane, yes,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: I know they did. They gotta win over Temple in
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: their last game. That looks like a good win where oh,
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll be in a letdown spot, but I don't
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: really think so, because believe it or not, Tulane was
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: actually favored in that game. Temple is not that good.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: They're not that much better than Tulane. So Tulane got
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: that nice win. I think they will be focused on
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: a UAB team that kind of embarrassed them on their
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: home court. So we're gonna go with it. Tulane is
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: my only play here today. UAB is looking pretty public, man,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: we might be able to get a seven on this.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: I think you might be able to wait a little
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: bit and see if the sevens show up again. It's
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: dropped from seven to six and a half, but we
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: see six and a half with juice here. I'd prefer
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: the seven because it's a semi key number where teams
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: stop intentionally fouling when they fall behind by three possessions
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of tickets, ninety nine percent of the
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: cash on UA B. I think what we can really
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: say is that UAB will be a public side here though,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: and it is the right spot to fade them. That's
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: on TV as well, so you can watch your money
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: either get flushed down the drain or you can watch
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: yourself win some money on espn U in the afternoon.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: All right, rider at Sacred Heart. I have a lot
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: of opinions on a lot of these games today, man,
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: even though I only settled on one game. Now, Remember
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: I talked about Sacred Heart, how they were only I
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: think they were actually a one point favorite against Saint
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Peter's and that looked weird obviously because Saint Peter's is
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: near the top of the matt Ac conference. So it
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: was like, well, why is Sacred Heart a favorite? Well,
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: the oddsbiggers are telling you those teams aren't separated by
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: that much. But that resulted in me being correct with
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Saint Peter's, but also big win for saying me being
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: correct on Sacred Heart. Excuse me, and Sacred Heart pretty
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: big win over Saint Peter's. So now they got that
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: win and now they're playing rider I just don't know
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: they're really going to pay attention to rider Man. And
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: they have a revenge game against fair Field coming up next.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Fairfield beat Sacred Heart in Sacred Heart, and the reason
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: why that's such a big game not only Sacred Heart
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: losing at home to Fairfield already, but Fairfield is Sacred
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Heart is in Fairfield, so they're in city rivals. So
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: that is a look ahead spot as well, so you
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: can make the argument this is a Sandwich spot. Although yes,
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Sacred Heart broke a losing streak. Sometimes that will give
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: you momentum coming into this game. But I don't see
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: them being focused on ryder Man. They already went to
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Ryder and put up over one hundred points against them
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: and beat them by twenty. So the only way that
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: I can look at this game is Ryder. This one
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: actually almost is on my card. It has most of
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: the aspects that, if not all, really of the aspects
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: that I look for in this game. Ryder rioting another
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: three game losing streak here, so you gotta figure they'll
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: probably at least give an effort in this one Ryder hash.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: They put in some decent efforts in some of these
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: conference games. Sacred Heart is very public nine four per
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: set of tickets, only ninety three percent of the cash
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: laying nine points here low total in the one forties riders.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: The only way I could look at it, man, And
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: if you look at Sacred Heart, looking at some of
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: the games they've had at home, uh, they have not
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: won by margin at home. Man. They were ten and
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: a half point favorites against Canesius, they won by three.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: They were huge favorites against Niagara. This is a game
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: that I gave out a loser on and they only
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: won by one as nine and a half point favorites
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: in that one. So they do not have a good
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: track record as a home favorite this year, and man,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: and they've lost to a bunch of good teams at
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: home too, Merrimack, maris Quinnipiac, let me see, and they
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: lost a fairfield as well. So Sacred Heart's best home
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: game was that win over Saint Peter's. Man, they've actually
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: been bad and at home, and they failed to cover
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: as a favorite. They failed to cover as a substantial
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: favorite all three times at home. So that's very very interesting. Actually,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: uh in conference play I'm talking about, this is very
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: very tempting. Man, I'm not gonna lie. Let me see
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: what ken BOM's got going on on this. He's got
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: Riders like the ninth worst team in the entire country,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: but they are unlucky at two eighty two in Locke.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: Let me see, Sacred Heart is pretty unlucky as well. Though.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Sacred Heart very bad defensively, though nearly as bad as
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: as Ride or on defense. Sacred Heart's gonna try to
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: speed the game up, but it looks like the oddsmakers
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: are kind of thinking that's not really gonna happen, or
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: at least Sacred Heart's offense. I guess this isn't good
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: enough to put up that many more. Maybe Riders isn't
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: This is very very tempting. Man. Let me let me
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: see what ken Bum's got is a number on this?
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, this would be one of the real ugly ones.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: He's got this line. Uh he has this line at ten.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Uh that's his projection. Man, I'll leave it off my card.
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I really do like Rider in that one,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: now that I look at it more. Alexander, what's up man?
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: I talked about that game a little while ago. I
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: do not have a strong opinion on that game. My
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: leen is Indiana plus the points in that one, but
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: I don't have a strong opinion on that. I think
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: both both teams set up to be in focus spots,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: so it's more just about like which team I think
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: which team I think kind of like cares about the
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: game a little bit more and will give you a
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: fuller effort. Plus, I think there might be more line
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: value on the side of Indiana there. But it's not
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion for me. Louis what's up? Man? Or
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: is it Lewis? Like Lewis Gomez? My only bed of
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: the day best played for me is Tulane plus the points,
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: And I'm saying, wait, to see if the seven shows
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: back up on that, Tulane plus seven or six and
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: a half would be Uh, that's my only play of
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: the day. Man, all right, we have what other games
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: are I'm gonna talk about here. Merrimack and Quinnipiac is
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: a good game as far as matt Ac Conference games
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: are concerned. Merrimack is coming up an absolute destruction of
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: marit And I've been saying that I think Maris is
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: like Power eighties wise, they're the best team in this
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: conference I think still. And the fact that Merrimack Merrimack
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: is a team that doesn't really blow teams out. I mean,
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: they did it to Rider, but Ryder is atrocious, even
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: though I just said I love Ryder today too. Merrimack
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: beating Marius like that is just insane, though, Like, I
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: don't think anybody could have predicted that eighty one to
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: fifty six. That's got to get you really, really high
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: on yourselves after that, man, and Merrimack already beat Quinnipiac
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: at home by double digits, so there's the chance they
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: don't take Quinnipiac seriously now. And they got Sianna on deck.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Although Quinnipiac actually just leap Frog Sianna in the standings,
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: so I mean, Merrimack, they still may not overlook this game,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: but I would prefer Quinnipiac in this one, even though
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a nice road upset win Ofciana, which
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: I gave you guys that as a strong lean on
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: the show when that happened, So that was a big
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: win for them as well. Could be maybe debatably letdown
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: spot for them here, but I mean, Merrimack, that win
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: was just I don't know, man, it just looks way
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: too good. So I think I would probably have to
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: lean Quinnipiac in this one. With the money is saying Merrimack,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: So I'm disagreeing with the money on a lot of
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: these games. Today, Quinnipiac dropped from a two point favorite
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: to a one point favorite, fifty percent of ticket seventy
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on Merrimack. I guess, do
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: with that information what you want to again, but Merrimack,
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're really lucky according to Kem Bob,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: and I've been saying that all year. They're tenth in
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: walk Quinnipiac is twenty eighth though, so both these teams
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: are lucky. Both teams are better on defense than offense,
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: so they're actually both really really similar teams. But I
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: don't have a whole lot else to say about that.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Oakland at Robert Morris is a somewhat interesting game. Oakland,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: like I said, they just got upset at home by Youngstown,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: so after that, plus that was following a horrible loss
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: to an awful Cleveland State team, maybe Oakland will will
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: bounce back from all that playing Robert Morris here. But
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: Oakland already beat Robert Morris by twenty three at home,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: so there is I guess the chance that they don't
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: totally take Robert Morris seriously here. Robert Morris winners of
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: this conference last year. They were having a rough season
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: for a while. Now they've actually started to turn it
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: on and they've won three games in a row, most
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: recently beating Cleveland State, which Cleveland State is awful, even
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: though they made that weird run in the middle where
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: they had like or not that long ago they had
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: five wins in a row or whatever. This is a
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: really difficult game to gauge. Man, you got Oakland with
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: the better conference record, Robert Morris is the better overall record.
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Although I did tell you that Oakland is still the
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: better team in Oakland face a gauntlet out of conference,
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: which is why their overall record is that crazy. They
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: face some really really good teams out of conference. But yeah,
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, this game is really really hard for me
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: to gauge. Man, it's not on my card obviously, not
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: even close. But it's an interesting game from a handicapping perspective,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: I guess just because it's kind of all over the
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: place and it's a good game, and that it should
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: be competitive. Robert Morris the one point favorite here, a
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: one and a half, maybe fifty three percent of tickets
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: on them, fifty one percent of the cash on Oakland.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: I probably do still side with Oakland a little bit,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: just based off of Oakland not having a great game
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: in their last game, But my opinion on that one
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: is not strong. I have a stronger opinion on Wright
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: State Cleveland State, which is the rare scenario where I
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: would recommend laying points on the road. Right State. They're
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: coming off that horrible loss to Detroit Mercy where they
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: were double digit favorites in that one. Like I said,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Detroit Mercy is way worse than their record looks, even
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: though they're probably better than they were. They had won
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: like really atrocious season recently. I don't remember if it
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: was last year or a couple of years ago, but
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: they're better than that. But they're not as good as
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: their record looks. Right State is one of the best
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: teams in this conference, and I think they will right
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: the ship against the Vikings. There you go, man, although
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: the Right State are the Raiders. Yeah, but there's like
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: a I don't know, their logo is like a what
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: is their logo? Is it a Oh, it's a wolf.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know why it's a wolf,
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: but whatever. Anyway, Right State, Yeah, they're coming up a
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: horrible loss. And like I keep saying, when a team
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: is a huge favorite and they take a loss like that,
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: usually they will bounce back. They have all the more
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: reason to bounce back off of that because Cleveland State
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: beat them at Right State and that was a monster
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: upset loss. Again for Right State, they were double digit
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: favorites in that game. They were probably fourteen and a
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: half point favorites in that game and lost the game.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: So I think they probably remember that that was an
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: embarrassing loss for Right State and coming off another really
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: bad one, I think you're gonna get a really focused
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: effort out of the much better team in Right State. Here,
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: Cleveland State is not even as good as their record looks.
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: They're on a two game slide now. I mean, yeah,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Cleveland State should show up, I guess for this game,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: but they're gonna have nobody in the crowd for this one.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think. Even though it is one of the
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: better teams in the conference, Right State has multiple reasons
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: to be in a hugely focused spot here. The money
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: is again disagreeing with me on this game. I don't
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: get it. I would only lay the points with Right
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: State in this one. Though ninety two percent of the
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: tickets sixty eight percent of the cash on Right State.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: It's a pretty strong market read against them, and they
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: drop from seven and a half to seven. But the
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: way that I look at these games situationally, that's the
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: only way that I could go is Right State in
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: that one. And they don't have a big game on
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: deck either. They play IUPUI, So just all the information
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: out there. Man and Sianna at Maris in the matt
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: Act is also a pretty good game here. Sianna is
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: coming off that loss to Quinnipiac at home, as I
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: think about a five point favorite in that one, so
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: they could be in a bounce back mode here. But
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: they did already beat Maris at home by nineteen, so
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: there is a potential that Sianna maybe overlooks them because
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: they do have Merrimac on deck. Merrimac beat Sianna at
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: Siana already, so they might actually have one eye looking
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: ahead to that game against Merrion Mac. Whereas I think
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Marist might be in the more focused spot here because
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: they got so embarrassed by Merrimack in their last game
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: and now they're back at home. It's only their second
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: home game in the last six games, which is kind
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: of a weird scheduling quirk for Maris playing a lot
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: of road games there as well. Yeah, I would probably
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: lean to Marius in that one because they're the avenging
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: team here and they're coming off an uglier loss, So yeah,
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: I would lean Maris that one of the both teams
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: are coming off losses to pretty good teams in the conference.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: Maris already dropped from a two and a half point
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: favorite to a one point favorite. It looks like the
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: money might be coming back in on them. I would
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: go Maris money line in this one if I was
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: gonna play it, sixty seven percent of tickets, sixty eight
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Maris CBS Sports three PM.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: Drake and Northern Iowa, which is the the Battle of Iowa.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: These teams play again at the very end of the
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: season because they're in state rivals. Drake has lost five
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: games in a row. I expected a better showing from
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Drake in their last game against Illinois Chicago and that
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: did not happen. Maybe we'll get a better effort here
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: from them. Man, they're gonna be an underdog here at
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Northern Iowa. And one thing about Northern Iowa is they
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: play defense and they don't score well and they slow
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: the game down. So laying a lot of points with
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: Northern Iowa might not be the best idea. And they're
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: coming off a couple of huge games. We get the
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: last three games for Northern Iowa. They beat Bradley one
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: on the row in a blowout at Murray State, who
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: is near the top of the conference standings wise, and
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: I would say Murray State is probably the third best
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: team in the conference power ratings wise. And then Northern
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: Iowa follow that up going to Belmont, who are the
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: best team in the conference in Northern Iowa played them
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: pretty tough and only lost by five. So coming off
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: that string of games, I think it's a bad spot
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: for Northern Iowa coming into this one. You might get
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit of extra effort out of Drake because
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: I think they will consider themselves to be the little
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: brother in that scenario. In that one, I would lean
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: to Drake. The money does seem to agree with me
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: on that one. It's a low total as you usually
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: get with Northern Iowa. I think Drake probably is a
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: slow paced team still as well they usually are. They're
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit more mid tempo this year. But Drake
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: also an unlucky team. But they're also really bad on defense.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: So yeah, Northern Iowa is the way better defensive team.
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: But asking a defensive team that doesn't score well and
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: play slow to cover this, you might get ten Drake.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: The only way I could look at this game is
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: to take the points. With Drake total in the one thirties.
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: It's low seventy percent of tickets on Northern Iowa, sixty
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash on Drake. And again with
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: a low total like that, each point is worth just
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit more, although it matters more in like football,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: when there are gonna be fewer points scored in a
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: game than in basketball. But uh yeah, I like Drake
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: in that one. Like the drake. Dude, I have way
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: too many drops here. I don't even like drake. You
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: don't like the drake the Drake? Love the Drake? Wow?
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Could you not like the drake? Who's the drake? Drake
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: is good? The Drake is good in that one at least? Maybe?
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: All right, what other games did I find to be
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: interesting on the on the slate today? Here? I mean
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Illinois State in Illinois Chicago is kind of an in
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: dressing game. It's competitively lined. Missouri Valley's got a bunch
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: of competitive games this year. The setup is not really
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: something gives you like a I don't know, I don't
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: really have a huge situation a latch onto here. Illinois
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: State just crushed Valpo. Illinois Chicago might still consider themselves
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: to be the little brother in this scenario, because they're
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: usually a pretty bad team. But Illinois State lost to
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: Illinois Chicago at home, So I think that's really kind
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: of the biggest, biggest part of the handicap here is
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: that that first meeting, Illinois State was a huge favorite,
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: probably close to a double digit favorite, I would imagine
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: in this one, if not bigger, yeah, ten and a half.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: So the fact that they lost, you know, overtime, is
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: a ten to half point favorite there. That's gonna have
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: Illinois State. I think taking UIC seriously in this game,
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: even though Illinois State does have Murray State and Bradley.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: Actually all the rest of their games are pretty big
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: Murray State, Bradley, Northern Iowan, Belmont. But I just don't
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna overlook their little brother who embarrassed them
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: on their home floor, or not embarrass them, but beat
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: them as a huge beat them when they were a
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: huge favorite. Let's say Illinois Chicago's coming off that win
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: at Drake decent win for them. I think I would
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: have to lean to Illinois State in this one, though,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: just because the I think revenge angle is stronger. I
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: think if you're gonna get the better team in a
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: focused scenario here with a line where they're basically you're
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: just picking them to win the game, I think it's
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: Illinois State. Money line would be the way I would
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: lean in this one. They're a one point favorite, sixty
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: eight percent of ticket, seventy three percent of the cash
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: on Illinois State money. Seems like it kind of agrees
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: with me on that one for now, though they might
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: be the public side too. But better team focus scenario,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: pick the winner spot, you know, That's the way that
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: I would lean in that one, although it kind of
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: looks too easy to play Illinois State in that one,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: so I have my reservations about it. Of course, because
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: they have the better record, so it does look pretty
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: easy to play in them already. Sock, what's up? Thanks
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: for hanging out. Davidson at Dayton is an ESPN two
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: game in the Atlantic ten at four pm Eastern Here
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: Sunday we get mostly afternoon basketball. Davidson is coming off
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: playing a non Division one game playing mid Atlantic College
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: I think is what that is, mid Atlantic Christian all right, whatever,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: playing matt C. Yeah, so they're coming off that game.
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: That should continue their momentum coming into this game against Dayton.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: Usually that's like a tune up type of game. Although
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: maybe it looks too good that they put up one
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: hundred and fourteen points, But I don't think a team
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: really gets overconfident. Off of beating some really weak non
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: Division one team like that. Dayton is coming off a
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: bigger game against VCU, all though they got blown out
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: at VCU, so they're probably gonna, I guess, show up
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: for this game as well. I don't believe these teams
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: have played this year. This might be the only matchup
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: between them this year. Dayton does have George Mason on decks,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: so I guess there is the slight concern that maybe
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: there's a look ahead component to this. But Dayton's a
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: four and a half point favorite here, sixty five percent
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: of ticket, seventy four percent of the cash on Dayton.
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: I kind of lean towards taking the points in this
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: one with Davidson, just because I like those teams to
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: continue their momentum with these non Division one games, Like
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: usually you roll into that game with momentum, So that's
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: kind of the way that I look at that game.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: But no strong opinion. It is a low total there too.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: Espn U at four pm Eastern Kentucky at North Alabama
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: in the Atlantic Sun. This is a second meeting where
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: Eastern Kentucky won the first game at home by eight
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: against North Alabama. North Alabama is not a great team.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Eastern Kentucky was five. There were five and a half
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: point favorites or so. They did cover that number. So
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: there is the possibility they don't take North Alabama seriously
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: right now. North Alabama I think has been playing some
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: bad basketball well recently too. They're not a good team
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: this year. They were a lot better last year where
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: I believe they made the conference final last year and
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: lost to Lipscomb. Eastern Kentucky is coming off losing to Lipscomb,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: who is one of the better teams in the conference.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: Second straight road game. A little bit of revenge maybe
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: for North Alabama here or Eastern Kentucky might not take
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: them seriously. North Alabama's lost four games in a row,
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: including losing two in a row at home. Bad loss
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: in their last game to West Georgia. I presume North
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: Alabama was favored in this one because West Georgia is
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: not good either. Yeah, they're only one and a half
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: way favorites, though I would lean to North Alabama and
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: that one not a strong opinion from me, but it
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: is a TV game. You know you're getting four and
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: a half points with them at home in that one. Obviously,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: the lesser of the two teams, but I would lean
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: towards taking the points in that one. CBS Sports at
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: five PM is Charleston at Campbell, and this game might
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: be more interesting that it might look on the surface.
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: And if the public is gonna play this game and
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: try to play some of these later TV games and
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: get some money, they're not gonna play Campbell in this one.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: Campbell's laying like two to two and a half here,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: even though they were below five hundred team against a
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: Charleston team that has a pretty good record and is
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: legitimately one of the best teams in this conference. Well,
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: so it looks way too easy to take the points
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: with Charleston, which I think is what the public will do.
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: That is not what I would do in a scenario
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: like this, where the oddsmakers are telling you something. Man,
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: they're basically telling you that Campbell is not that much
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: worse than Charleston, and Charleston I think is in the
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: somewhat worse spot as well. They're coming off two big
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: games against UNC Wilmington and HOSTRA and they lost both games.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: Those were two of the better teams in this conference
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: along with them, and their game against host is really
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: close too. So I could see them being in a
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: bit of a hangover spot here against Campbell. I don't
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: believe that. You know, they did play Campbell already and
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: they beat them by four at home, So I guess
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: that might be a hesitation with Campbell here because actually
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: Charleston covered, So what am I saying? There were three
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: and a half way favorites in that one, So that's
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: actually interesting as well that Charleston was not a huge
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: favorite at home against Campbell as well. So again that
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: line told you that Charleston's not that much better than Campbell.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: They actually covered that number, so there is the potential
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: that they don't totally take Campbell seriously here in this one.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: Campbell's on a three game win streak. They just won
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: at NCA and T. It was not a huge win
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: or anything like that. NCA and T not that good,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: but Campbell's able to get the win on the road.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Momentum coming into this one, I would have to lead
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: to Campbell in this game, but it's not a strong
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: opinion for me. Charleston. They do look like what I expected.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: They look like a public underdog in this scenario, which
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: is not the type of team that you want to
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: back seventy one percent of tickets, only sixty six percent
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Charleston. Yeah, I would fade them
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: in this one. Campbell up from two to two two
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: and a half. You might still be able to find
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: a decent money line on Campbell because they're kind of
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: still a two point favorite, So that might be the
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: way I would look to try to play that. ESPN
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: two at six pm Belmont at Murray State. Good game
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: in the Missouri Valley Man Belmont and Murray State. They're
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: two of the top teams in this conference. Belmont already
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: beat Murray State at home by seventeen. Now, the one
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: thing that we know is that these teams both don't
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: play defense, though they're both pretty bad on defense. Belmont
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: is sixtieth in the country according to Kempom. They're the
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: best team in this conference, but they're a little bit overrated.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: Maybe according to him as well, they're good on an
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: offense top fifty, but not good on defense. Murray State
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: also really bad on defense. He's got Murray State almost
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: in the top one hundred overall, but outside of the
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: top two hundred on defense. He has them even luckier
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: than Belmont forty six. The lock index and those of
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: them is a good offense. It's sixty first, so we
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: have a lot of offense in this game, man, So
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: it might be another hot I don't see anyway, This
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: is not another high scoring game year. Both teams play
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: fast tembow wise, they both are bad on defense and
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: very good on offense. Belmont's coming up a nice win
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: over Northern Iowa. They put up ninety one against the
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: best defense in the conference. Nice bounce back win for Belmont,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: and the fact that they already beat Murray State might
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: have them, you know, a little bit unfocused here. And
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: they actually have Indiana State next, and that's actually a
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: revenge game because Belmont actually lost to Indiana State and
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: that's one of three conference losses on the season. They
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: already avenged their loss to Southern Illinois. Their other loss
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: was to Bradley, which I believe they beat Bradley already
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: earlier in the season. Yes, so the only conference team
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: that has a win against Belmont this year that is
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: not avenged by Belmont is Indiana State and that's who
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: they play next. So I kind of like Murray State
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: in this one man. Murray State coming off beating Indiana
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: State by two on the road. That's not that impressive.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: They might have been looking ahead to Belmont, and people
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: are gonna look at that recent matchup where Belmont beat No.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: Northern Iowa at home and Murray State got absolutely torched
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: by Northern Iowa at home. So people are gonna look
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: at that and think this is way easy you play Belmont,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: right because Belmont already crushed Murray State once. Belmont beat
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: Northern Iowa, who just beat Murray State. So in the
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: public's eye, I think they're all gonna be on Belmont
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: in this one, and that is not what I would do.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: I would play Murray State seventy five percent of tickets
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: around Belmont only seventy two percent of the cash. Belmont
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: is indeed looking like a public side here in a
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: public underdog. Murray State money line would be the way
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: I would play it. Their minus one basically in the game.
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: I would not disagree with an over in this game either,
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: though the total did drop of four points to one
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: sixty seven and a half. Don't really agree with that move, though,
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: again it's just the style of game. I think it's
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna try to play an under in that game,
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: I think you're playing with fire in that type of game.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: It's a very high total for a reason. All right,
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: Fox Sports won at six pm Seaton Hall at Butler.
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: These teams are already played, and Seaton Hall actually lost by
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: eleven at home to Butler, so right away there's a
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: road revenge angle for Seaton Hall here. Seton Hall were
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: six and a half point favorites in that game, and
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: they're ranked at the time, so I think Seton Hall
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: will remember that and want to try to get Butler
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: back for that, or Butler might not take them as seriously.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: However you want to look at it. The road revenge
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: angle is a decent angle. In the second meetings, Seaton
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: Hall also ended a two game losing Sugar with an
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: unimpressive win over Providence, so I think they do have
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: some momentum coming into this one. Providence is a bad team. Providence.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: We saw yesterday. They see Saint John's was able to
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: get their revenge and cover even in a game where
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: half a same John's team got ejected from the game.
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys saw that game yesterday,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: but there were brawls going on. I think Providence was
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: really really getting angry I think Saint John's has Bryce Hopkins,
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: who I think used to be on Providence with the
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: transfer portal. These guys are all over the place, and
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: I think Hopkins was on Providence and Kentucky and now
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: he's on Saint John's. But the Providence crowd was really
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: really giving him shit. The police actually had to come in.
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: Multiple fans got ejected from the game. I had the
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: game on. It was absolute insanity. It was one of
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: the most insane games of the year just because of
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: the because of the non basketball aspects of the game.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: The police had to come in and separate the Providence
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: like student section from the Saint John's fans that were
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: like one section over because they were basically getting involved
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: in fights. And it was mostly the Providence students section
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: where the aggressors in it too, so it was totally
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: ridiculous and some of them got tossed. And then there
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: were seven ejections in the game. I think four players
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: got ejected on the on the Saint John's side of
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: three on the Providence side. It was absolutely insane, and
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: then Rick Patino took Bryce Hopkins out of the game
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: just to get his team to focus on like the
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: home stretch of the game and winning the game, which
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: I think was a good move because Hopkins being on
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: the floor was like motivating Providence and whatever and causing
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: like all that shit to happen. It was a total distraction.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: So Patino took Bryce Hopkins out of the game, even
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: though he's one of the best players, and they wound
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: up winning and covering finishing the game with him out
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: of the game. But both both teams were playing a
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: lot of their backups at that point because of all
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: the ejections though. It was absolutely insane. I don't know
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: what else I had to say about that game, but
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: that game was crazy yesterday, and I just happened to
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: have it on, Yeah, like not realizing that it was
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: gonna get that insane, but yeah, yeah, I don't think
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: I had anything else to say about that game. But yeah,
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Rick Patino with the right move there. Yeah, inside, I
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: want to kill myself. Yeah he was not saying that
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: after that game yesterday. Anyway, we're talking about Seaton Hall
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Butler here. Seton Hall beat that Providence team. Now they're
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: going to Butler here again. Seaton Hall already lost at
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: home to Butler I like Seton Hall in this one man.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna show up for this game. Butler
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: is coming up a pretty big game against Yukon. They
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: lost my ten and yeah, Butler was down double digits
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: in the home stretch of that game. They wound up
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: barely covering at the end of it. Yukon was covering
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: for a little bit at the end of that game too.
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: That game was right near the number, but Butler did
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: play a close game for about half of the game.
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: Big game that they're coming off of man and staying
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: at home after that. Yeah, I mean, you can make
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: the argument Butler should show up here because they're on
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: a five game losing streak. But Seton Hall is also
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: a Bubble tournament team right now, so I think they
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: kind of need the game a little bit more, and
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: they are actually a favorite in this game. Maybe the
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: line is a little bit too high now in Seaton Hall,
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: because if there were six and a half point favorites
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: at home, they should probably be about to pick them
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: in this game, and that's where it opened. But now
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: it's two and a half, so I don't know if
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: there's really any line value left here, but I would
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: lean to Seaton Hall. I mean, if you can find
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: a decent money line price still on Seaton Hall, that
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: might be the way to look at this game. Seventy
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: six percent of the tickets are on Seaton Hall, fifty
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on Butler. So again the
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: market read is disagreeing with me, and some of it
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: might just be because the number might just be a
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: little bit out of whack there. But I would have
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: to go Seaton Hall in that game from a situational
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: standpoint at the very least, and maybe there are still
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: some money lines out there that are palatable. And then
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: we got thousand and Mond. But this last TV game
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: at seven pm on CBS Sports not the greatest game,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: although I think thousand I keeps saying they're a little
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: bit of an undervalued commodity here. They did just get
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: a win and cover against stony Brook. Now they're going
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: on the road to face Monmouth. They actually already lost
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: embarrassingly at home to Monmouth sixty two to forty eight,
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: not even putting up fifty points, So you might you
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: have to imagine that towsand will take this game seriously,
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: knowing what happened to them at home against this Monmouth team.
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: Mamath is not a very good team either. Mama is
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: coming of a win over Drexel. Mamath does have a
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: couple of huge games on deck against UNC Wilmington and
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: College at Charleston, so there's the potential they look ahead here.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: I would lean a thousand in this game for all
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: those reasons. One hesitation might be, though, that this is
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: an isolated TV game. There are a few TV games
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: on late at night here in Monmouth. They usually do
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: not get a huge televised TV game like this at home,
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: so Monmouth might actually get excited for it for that reason.
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: So that is one hesitation that I have with it.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: Although I would have a lean to towe and in
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: this one, but it's not gonna be on my card.
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: Monmouth up from one to two here, Yeah, I would
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: slightly looking towards taking the points there, and I think
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: that is it. Man, that's gonna do it. I talked
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: about most of the games here. A few of the
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: games that I skipped are kind of on the more
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: uninteresting side of things. All right, man, that's that's gonna
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: do it. Thanks for hanging out, guys. My one play today,
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: one more time is two lane plus the points. I
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: think it's a good spot to grab them. Now, you
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: might be able to get seven on this. Like I said,
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: actually we can see if there's a seven right now
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: on it. Because the line looked like it was moving
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: back up a little bit, I would still probably play
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: it at the six and a half. Ken Bum, I
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: think has this line at seven. Yeah, it looks like
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: six and a half's are pretty abundant right now. Some
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: of the books are screwing you, which is again why
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: you need an account at every book, man. But it
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: looks like a couple of the biggest books have the
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: six and a half right now. I don't actually think
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: it's gonna get to seven now that I see what's
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: going on in the market there. But we'll go with
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: twu Lane plus the points. That's the one play today
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. Learn it tone on Twitter, Learn
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: a tone on Instagram. I can subscribe to me on Twitter.
• 1:00:12
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• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: my habit. No, it helps me live, to be honest,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: not taking in a whole lot of money right now.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: But we'll see what happens once the end of the
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: month hits and I free up enough money to bankroll
• 1:00:28
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• 1:00:36
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• 1:00:38
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• 1:00:41
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• 1:00:48
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• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: Tell everybody about it, man. Word of mouth is the
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: way that you do these things. Now we need something
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  Speaker 1: make clips of the show or something that spread them around.
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  Speaker 1: I have no idea. Maybe I have to do that.
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  Speaker 1: I should actually probably, I don't know. I just have
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  Speaker 1: so much content. It's like, how do I dig through
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  Speaker 1: it and find like the best moments or whatever. I
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• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: ukulele content there. But if you just want to support me,
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• 1:01:30
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• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: there and loser cast will be back on Tuesday with
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: a new show, a new episode of that, the new
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: comedy podcast that I'm part of. That's gonna do it man.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: So yeah, have a good Sunday, everybody, and we'll be
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: back for probably a very light board on Monday, because
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: NBA doesn't resume until Thursday, the All Star break continues,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: and then hockey is in full Olympic swing right now,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: so Hockey NHL won't be back for another week and
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: a half or so, so a little bit of a
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: break for me. I guess that's gonna do it. Peace, everybody,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: h