Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 9/2/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Chevron In Venezuela And Your Feed Bill

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 9/2/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Chevron In Venezuela And Your Feed Bill · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here live from Joliet, Illinois.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Today on this fine Wednesday morning, we're going to be talking about pasture conditions, the ethanol crush, and Chevron is moving into Venezuela.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at the livestock markets yesterday, hogs were mostly unchanged, but man, live cattle were down big on the open.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: They were down 60 cents at 212, about even.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle also big, down big, closed down a buck and 10 cents at 320.35.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Lean hogs were pretty much unchanged in about all the contracts.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: They were down just one tick at 83.65.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote the grain markets here live, I'd like to give a shout out to our sponsor, plus 500.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: We use plus 500 T4 trading software every single day to quote and trade the market.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: As I look here, December corn came up big overnight.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: It's back down just a little bit at 537 and a quarter.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: November beans are at 1301.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: Chicago, December wheat is at 773 and a quarter.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, on the weather talk for today, we kind of have maybe some shifts in what we've maybe some shifts from what we've normally been seeing.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: The corn belt has been getting hotter, and we're going to see an active pattern that will dominate the northern cornbelt and northern plains for the next 10 days, bringing daily threats of showers, thunderstorms, and mostly above normal rainfall for the Dakotas, Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: Overnight severe storms have already produced large hail along the Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota border.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the big one.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: The next 11 to 15 day outlook turns more optimistic for the southern plains, shifting a wet west and dry east pattern that can finally bring rain ahead of winter wheat planting by mid-month.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's going to be great to see.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's much needed down there.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: Here's our grain market slide for today.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: That is the ethanol crush.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: And as you see on this chart here, you know, projections kind of hit yesterday, right where we were kind of guessing they would be at.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: But we're still way above that five-year average.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's the dashed line there.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: Not to mention, as we study this past year and that range, we are well on the above or at the top side of that five-year range.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: We're doing pretty good with regards to our crush numbers.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: Hopefully, we continue that on out for the rest of the year.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Livestock markets, this chart caught my eye this morning.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: 59% of the nation's heifer replacement stand in states.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: The rate under 20% on the good to excellent scale.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: So all of those states in the red there, the ones that have poor pasture conditions.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: The size of that bar shows the number of replacement heifers in each state.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: And as you can see, a lot more red than there is green.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: This stands in an interesting spot as this brand program gets released.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: And as I speak of the brand program, I highly encourage you to go on to our premium side and watch yesterday's video.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: I did a great show with Mike Sands on the Fat Tuesday show.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: I'll pop it up here if I can, real quick.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: The Fat Tuesday show is on the premium side.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's every single week.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: Mike and I do 30 minutes of the best charts and data analytics in the cattle world.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: He does an exceptional job.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: He has years and years of experience tracking the cattle market and wealth of knowledge there.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're like Jed, I don't care about the cattle market as much.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I also do this one every single Friday.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: I do the Friday Futures Report with Tom Leffler.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: It's a great show.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: We talk about wheat, we talk about weather, we talk about all the ag commodities.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: We've talked about cotton and pigs on there, even though neither Tom nor I are hog men or cotton farmers.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: But if there's an ag commodity, we make sure and bring it up.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: And that is all on the premium side.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: It's$25 or$250 annually.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: If there's a big swing in the market and you're like, shucks, I just didn't know about it.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: There's a way to solve this.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: Go to our premium side.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: You get text updates whenever the markets open.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: I highly encourage you to go over there.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: And hey, if you're have questions about the premium or if you just have questions about the show, Ag Bull, want to know anything about the markets, hit us up on our phone number.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's 855-737 Farm.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: Tommy, Joe, or I, we're all registered brokers.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: We'll all answer the phones.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: If you have any questions about the market or premium side, I love to hear from you there.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: Well, this was the outside market headline that I thought was going to be big news this morning, but really isn't.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: Chevron has been assigned two additional oil fields in the Renico Belt region that contains most of Venezuela's vast heavy or vast extra heavy crude reserves.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: Chevron plans to increase his production in the country by 600,000 barrels per day over the next five years compared to the 280,000 barrels per day, which they're currently at.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, we've had some pretty big headlines in the past year about Venezuela and kind of realignment of their government.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah, now it turns out that we're going to, you know, Chevron is going to step in there and crank up production.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: Regardless of how you feel about politically where this stands and our involvement there, this is going to affect the price of oil, fertilizers, grains, even the livestock markets, if oil sees a big jump or dip there because of this.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: Chart of the day.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: Haven't done a chart of the day in a while.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: Tommy sent me this one last night and it really caught my eye.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: The SP Agricultural Index is now traded green for 13 straight days.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: It's the longest winning streak in this century.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: That is absolutely crazy.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: This is from Bar Chart on X.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_00: They do some pretty interesting stuff on there, but Tommy sent me this and I was like, it can't be true.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: We've certainly gone longer than 13 days, but apparently we haven't.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the whole agricultural complex, so it helps that, you know, cattle have had a few green days.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: Hogs really helped push this, not to mention the grains alone have done most of the work there.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: On the economic calendar for today, the NBA mortgage applications have already come out at 6 a.m.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: The ADP employment change comes out as I'm speaking.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: Right now at 7 15 a.m.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: Factory orders come out at 9, as well as durable cap goods and EIA energy stocks half an hour later at 9.30.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: A lot on the economic calendar.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: Like, hey, Jed, the slides look different today.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: Shout out to Justin Cunningham for updating him.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: He went through and redesigned all of the slides for Ag Squawk AM, giving him a fresher look.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I really like this last one here that really uh shows all we do.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: And if you notice under the X there, we live stream this show on X or Twitter or whatever you want to call it.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: We do AM at 8 15 AM and AG Squawk P.M.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_00: at 8 15 p.m.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: Every single day.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're like, well, I want to make sure I catch the show, but I might forget about it, set your reminder that you get updates when we go live on X.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching and thank you for listening.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: I know I kind of ranted just a little bit today, but I really would love to see you guys hop over on the premium side because we're putting out a wealth of information there.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: Not for me, certainly.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: We have people that are smarter than me that come on, and that's what's really cool when I get to interview some people that I really respect, their knowledge and just the time that they have spent in these markets.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's cool to hear the things that they have to say.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for you today.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and tune in tomorrow to AgSquawk AM and catch Davis Michelson this afternoon.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.