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Will we get a Santa Claus rally this year? · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstrong.
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  Speaker 2: Chuck Mike Tucker with you here, and we've got stocks
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  Speaker 2: volatile from minute to minute, but not behaving.
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  Speaker 3: Great at the moment.
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  Speaker 2: The S and P of five hundred right now is
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  Speaker 2: down nineteen points, about a third of a percent one point.
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  Speaker 2: This morning, I saw it was up about twenty points,
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  Speaker 2: So you've got about a half percentage point intra day swing,
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  Speaker 2: and this is just kind of what we've been seeing.
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  Speaker 2: Dow is currently off about a quarter percent one hundred
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  Speaker 2: and fifteen points. The Nasdaq composite is down seventy two points,
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  Speaker 2: about a third of a percent as well. So all
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  Speaker 2: major indices in the red or the ruge I believe
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  Speaker 2: is that's what they say, that's how they say it.
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  Speaker 2: In on the French exchanges, US tenure Treasury down one
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  Speaker 2: point five basis points to four point one three to
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  Speaker 2: three percent, No real movement there. We've got gold off
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  Speaker 2: twenty seven eighty an ounce to four thy sixty six
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  Speaker 2: and twenty cents. Crude oil is down sixteen cents a
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  Speaker 2: barrel to fifty nine ninety three a barrel in the
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  Speaker 2: TRIPAA national average for gas prices is up one tenth
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  Speaker 2: of a cent to three oh seven and three tenths.
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  Speaker 2: A year ago, it was three oh seven and two tenths,
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  Speaker 2: So I'm glad oil traders went.
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  Speaker 4: Through that last year.
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  Speaker 2: Yahoo in any case, kind of just some continued consternation.
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  Speaker 2: I gotta tell you, like something that's just like just
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  Speaker 2: kind of bugging me here. Is like normally this time
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  Speaker 2: of year is where you're like, not me personally because like,
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  Speaker 2: my feet are too like my legs are too short
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  Speaker 2: to put up on the desk and kick back and relax.
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  Speaker 3: It's Santa Clause time.
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  Speaker 2: Normally you've got kind of this chase for year end
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  Speaker 2: performance coming from managers. It's just it's it's a lower
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  Speaker 2: volume time of year. There's not much excitement. You basically
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  Speaker 2: don't see anything exciting on the board. The times when
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  Speaker 2: you do are ones where you just have to Again,
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  Speaker 2: I'm not saying anything bad will happen, but when you
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  Speaker 2: start seeing like weird things happening, like hey, it's a
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  Speaker 2: Monday with the S and P down less than half
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  Speaker 2: a percent and the VIX is up, you know, even
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  Speaker 2: accounting for the fact that VIX tends to move up
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  Speaker 2: on Mondays because of the way the calendar works, and
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  Speaker 2: you got vix up, you know, one point five, you know,
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  Speaker 2: volves on it. It's just like, this is just kind
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  Speaker 2: of weird stuff that you look at and you're like,
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  Speaker 2: what are you're looking at this saying? What is this
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  Speaker 2: market concerned about? And who knows?
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  Speaker 3: Something?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, I could attribute it to a couple of things. One,
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  Speaker 4: it could be looming signs of danger. Could also be
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  Speaker 4: the result of delayed data. I think that's part of
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  Speaker 4: a down. It could be result of a FED that
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  Speaker 4: is maybe in part because of that shutdown, giving no
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  Speaker 4: clear signal about what they are doing next. And so yeah,
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  Speaker 4: that could be a contributing fact, but I'm not sure
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  Speaker 4: I would bet on it.
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  Speaker 1: No.
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  Speaker 2: I kind of figured quite honestly after we got into
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  Speaker 2: November that you know, you had some volatility popping up
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  Speaker 2: in October on private credit concerns, and then it just
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  Speaker 2: kind of went away as we got into earnings, and
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  Speaker 2: I kind of figured, Okay, like that's it for that,
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  Speaker 2: And now you got these other stories about private credit
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  Speaker 2: popping up over the weekend with investors in this blue
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  Speaker 2: Owl fund having to take a twenty percent haircut pending
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  Speaker 2: you know, their their final approval on it. And I'm
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  Speaker 2: kind of just looking at this and like something just
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  Speaker 2: kind of stinks here, and you hope it isn't anything bigger.
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  Speaker 2: But it's like you don't normally see this into year end.
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  Speaker 3: It's just made this comparison before. But March of.
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  Speaker 4: Twenty three, when was the bank failures twenty four to
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  Speaker 4: three Silicon Valley Bank, we early on we're experiencing something
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  Speaker 4: interesting there, and you said, you gotta just kind of
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  Speaker 4: wait and see how bad this gets. And it got
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  Speaker 4: bad for a weekend. You had three banks ended up
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  Speaker 4: getting shuttered and needed to find buyers. And again, part
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  Speaker 4: because of the fed's actions, part because of just where
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  Speaker 4: the real problems were, it didn't bubble over. It feels
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  Speaker 4: this way similarly now with a market with a stock
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  Speaker 4: market that's even richer in terms of evaluation.
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  Speaker 2: The key difference then is the there's a difference between
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  Speaker 2: being illiquid and insolvent. Right, if you're a liquid you
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  Speaker 2: have the money, but you just can't come up with
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  Speaker 2: the ability to pay it. Yet, if you're insolvent, you
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  Speaker 2: don't have the ability to like it's just it's not there,
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  Speaker 2: like you just can't provide the funds. And so I
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  Speaker 2: think that they've had some insolvencies recently. The difference here
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  Speaker 2: on this is the problem that those banks faced was
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  Speaker 2: just interest rates when and the valuations of the stuff
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  Speaker 2: they had was just out of whack with where their
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  Speaker 2: balance sheets needed to be, and you had basically a
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  Speaker 2: run on the banks.
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  Speaker 3: YEP.
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  Speaker 2: In this case, the question is, hey, do companies have
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  Speaker 2: the ability to pay back these private credit loans? And
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  Speaker 2: we don't know the answers yet we don't. No one does.
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  Speaker 2: This is the thing I keep coming back to anyone
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  Speaker 2: who says this either is or is not, you know,
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  Speaker 2: a big problem. They're not talking because they're the ones
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  Speaker 2: that are trying, that actually own the stuff and they're
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  Speaker 2: trying to manage through it. They're not talking now, So
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  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going to happen here. I'm just
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  Speaker 2: looking at the situation saying something feels weird and we're
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  Speaker 2: gonna have to get to a resolution at some point.
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  Speaker 2: But this blue owl thing over the weekend has me
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  Speaker 2: feeling not great, just because it's giving me shades of
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  Speaker 2: mid two thousand and seven with companies trying to shuffle
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  Speaker 2: the deck chairs on these loans that weren't performing. In
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  Speaker 2: that case, in the residential sector. This is companies feeling
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  Speaker 2: like they're trying to shuffle the deck chairs with these
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  Speaker 2: loans to these mid market companies, and it's just giving
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  Speaker 2: me this feeling of de ja vous, I believe is
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  Speaker 2: what they refer to it as.
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  Speaker 3: You're just all French this morning?
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  Speaker 4: Is deja vous French? Yeah it is? Yeah, Yeah, I
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  Speaker 4: don't know. I don't speak French. No, you got three
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  Speaker 4: words down. We four look at.
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  Speaker 2: That White House hunts for ways to lower cost of living. Guys,
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  Speaker 2: here's the deal. The federal government basically can't lower the
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  Speaker 2: cost of living. And now you get these pieces in
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  Speaker 2: the New York Times titled economists hate this idea.
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  Speaker 4: It could be the way out of the affordability crisis.
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  Speaker 4: It's talking about price controls. Yeah, can we also say
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  Speaker 4: that mayors also can't really fix the affordability crisis?
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  Speaker 2: No, Guys, Like, here's the deal is, we've kind of
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  Speaker 2: gotten to this point over multiple decades, and you're not
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  Speaker 2: just going to be able to fix it with any
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  Speaker 2: of the tools that are available to you, because it's
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  Speaker 2: not a problem that's created by those tools or the
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  Speaker 2: lack thereof.
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  Speaker 4: Honestly, maybe it's just been so long since we've price
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  Speaker 4: fixed things and set quotas that we need to go
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  Speaker 4: through that students to feel how bad it is. I mean,
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  Speaker 4: like people that lived through the oil embargo and remember
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  Speaker 4: sitting in giant lines at gas stations because of this
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  Speaker 4: exact economic policy. Right, we basically said you can have
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  Speaker 4: this much gasoline per week. Remember how that feels and
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  Speaker 4: how it all worked. And maybe it's just been a
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  Speaker 4: long while since we've done it, and we need to
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  Speaker 4: go through that peak stupid period again. Because price controls,
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  Speaker 4: there's a lot of things that economists will disagree on,
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  Speaker 4: and you know, you'll be able to cite different economists.
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  Speaker 4: I have not seen any mainstream economists whatsoever that debate
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  Speaker 4: the result of price controls.
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  Speaker 3: They result in shortages every time, and that's.
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  Speaker 2: What we are very obvious reasons, you know. So I
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  Speaker 2: also think that when look when we look at the
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  Speaker 2: the problems that we're facing on affordability, I mean, got like,
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  Speaker 2: I don't want to keep coming back to this, but
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  Speaker 2: I come back to it a lot. Ultimately, what we
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  Speaker 2: are talking about here is the fact that incomes have
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  Speaker 2: not kept up with prices in the way that people
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  Speaker 2: are comfortable with. I don't know why every time we
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  Speaker 2: look at this problem we look at the price piece
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  Speaker 2: and not the income piece. Now, I'm not saying that
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  Speaker 2: the problem is a minimum wage issue. The national minimum
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  Speaker 2: wage is like seven dollars and twenty five cents. Still,
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  Speaker 2: the estimates that I've seen are like one percent of
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  Speaker 2: the people in the country right now ye are earning minimum.
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  Speaker 3: Wage or lower.
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  Speaker 4: So this is not Chuck being like, hey, you need
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  Speaker 4: to raise them minimum wage. So let's be clear about this.
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  Speaker 4: But what I am saying is when you look at
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  Speaker 4: the way that overall wealth and incomes have grown over
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  Speaker 4: the last twenty thirty years, it's clear that we're facing
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  Speaker 4: an inflection point right now where you can only pay
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  Speaker 4: people like crap for so long before that power of
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  Speaker 4: compounding starts to make it a problem in terms of
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  Speaker 4: them being able to afford the things they want to afford.
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  Speaker 4: By the way, I'm not saying that all the policies
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  Speaker 4: that are being discussed recently are trash, right the Trump
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  Speaker 4: White House, A lot of them are.
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  Speaker 3: A lot of them are.
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  Speaker 4: But the Trump White House proposed the idea of lowering
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: or eliminating tariffs on certain food items. Great like that
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  Speaker 4: promotes free your markets, and should help with affordability. I
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  Speaker 4: think that's a good idea. I'm not debating that piece.
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  Speaker 4: But other things such as price fixing, rent state owned
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  Speaker 4: grocery stores, I see a lot of problems with these. Michael,
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  Speaker 4: what do you think?
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  Speaker 2: What do you think about a top down five year
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  Speaker 2: plan to improve the economy?
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  Speaker 3: Right, Like.
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  Speaker 4: We could call it a five year plan even markets
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  Speaker 4: solve these problems. Don't try and create the solutions because
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  Speaker 4: we've just seen over and over how that just doesn't
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  Speaker 4: work out the way you think.
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  Speaker 2: Or again, like not to look to be to be fair,
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  Speaker 2: I'm a hammer and I see like nails everywhere on
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  Speaker 2: this More competition reduces the amount of profit and allows
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  Speaker 2: for greater affordability generally through that competition, as companies have
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  Speaker 2: to compete for business on price, quality and a whole
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  Speaker 2: range of different items. Maybe, just maybe we've gotten to
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  Speaker 2: the point where there's so much consolidation in so many
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  Speaker 2: industries that there's not enough competition to be able to
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  Speaker 2: drive that pricing the way you want. And by the way, way,
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  Speaker 2: it's not just pricing that you drive competition on, it's
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  Speaker 2: benefits for workers. Hey, if you have more competition, then
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  Speaker 2: maybe the three. You know, one the two grocery stores
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  Speaker 2: that operate in each region can't just agree to pay
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  Speaker 2: the same amount to their workers, and maybe you actually
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  Speaker 2: end up with higher wages as a result, and that
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  Speaker 2: solves some of the problem. So ultimately, where I get
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  Speaker 2: to is affordability is not going to be solved by
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  Speaker 2: the federal, state or local government saying this is the
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  Speaker 2: right price for something, because there is no right price
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  Speaker 2: for anything. What I do think can solve is more
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  Speaker 2: competition making it easier for businesses to get into business
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  Speaker 2: and compete. Less regulation, yes, And I think also, by
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  Speaker 2: the way, if you have less if you have more competition,
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  Speaker 2: you don't need as much regulation because the competition weeds
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  Speaker 2: out the weak companies that can't compete. Let's take a
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  Speaker 2: quick break now. When we come back, we're gonna be
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  Speaker 2: joined by Sarah Foster from Banquet. We're talking talking about
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  Speaker 2: what's going on in the labor market that feels so broken.
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  Speaker 2: We're now joined by Sarah Foster from bankrit here too,
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  Speaker 2: we've talked a little bit about what is going on
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  Speaker 2: in the labor market.
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  Speaker 4: Sarah, thank you so much for joining us.
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  Speaker 6: Thanks for having me. I always enjoy it.
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  Speaker 2: So when we talk about this labor market right now,
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  Speaker 2: it seems like people that are looking for jobs are
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  Speaker 2: telling us, Hey, I'm having a pretty hard time finding one.
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  Speaker 2: Why is that the case?
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  Speaker 6: That's right, It's a tail to job markets. That's kind
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  Speaker 6: of how we've been describing it. It's a different economy
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  Speaker 6: for people who are working, but a completely different environment
• 14:30
  Speaker 6: for those who are looking for a job. You know,
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  Speaker 6: I think it's fair to say that we have seen
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  Speaker 6: widespread economic uncertainty. Businesses don't really know how to plan
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  Speaker 6: for the future. They're also dealing with higher production costs
• 14:42
  Speaker 6: because of tariffs. It's been a difficult time for really
• 14:45
  Speaker 6: companies to think about their hiring plans. And that's why
• 14:48
  Speaker 6: we've kind of transitioned into this point where we're calling
• 14:51
  Speaker 6: it that no higher but no fire labor market. Of course,
• 14:54
  Speaker 6: though we need data to really confirm whether that's still
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: the case.
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  Speaker 2: Let's talk about the data side, because we know that
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  Speaker 2: we have them been getting government jobs reports for the
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: last couple of months now. Supplemental data around that, you know,
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  Speaker 2: privately released reports and things like that, are what are
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  Speaker 2: we seeing In.
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  Speaker 6: General, we are seeing some red flags. There was a
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  Speaker 6: pickup in layoffs, you know that Challenger Grand Christmas report
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  Speaker 6: which showed that the most October job cuts in over
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  Speaker 6: twenty years. That raised you know, a lot of concerns
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  Speaker 6: here about whether the state of the labor market could
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  Speaker 6: be transitioning from a no higher no fire to a
• 15:28
  Speaker 6: no higher start firing labor market. You know. Of course,
• 15:32
  Speaker 6: though many economists often point out how the Challenger data
• 15:36
  Speaker 6: has really showed that layoffs have picked up, you know,
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  Speaker 6: post pandemic, because companies really started rebalancing their payrolls who
• 15:42
  Speaker 6: had over hired during those few months when the economy
• 15:46
  Speaker 6: was shut down. What all that's to say is whether
• 15:48
  Speaker 6: this is you know, the broader state of the labor market,
• 15:51
  Speaker 6: or whether this just reflects those big, flashy headline companies,
• 15:55
  Speaker 6: you know, Amazon ups laying off lots of workers. That's
• 15:58
  Speaker 6: something we can really ownly we see in the federal data,
• 16:02
  Speaker 6: and we of course are hopefully going to get our
• 16:04
  Speaker 6: first look at that the Thursday, September Jobs report is
• 16:08
  Speaker 6: expected to be released.
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  Speaker 2: When we look at this economy overall, one of the
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  Speaker 2: things that we do see is that again we don't
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: have the updated you know, Q three GDP numbers because
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: of the government shutdown. But it seemed like GDP was
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: growing at a pretty good clip in Q three prior
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: to the shutdown, and Q two was pretty strong as well.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: How do we reconcile a seemingly strong headline number for
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: the economy with this week hiring.
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  Speaker 6: It's peculiar. We kind of describe it as a jobless boom.
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  Speaker 6: That's because we looked at historically when GDP is as
• 16:44
  Speaker 6: strong as it is, how many job at job growth
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  Speaker 6: and hiring, how much that translates to you know, typically
• 16:52
  Speaker 6: a three point eight percent quarter over quarter growth is
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  Speaker 6: correlated with two hundred and sixty four thousand jobs added
• 16:58
  Speaker 6: in a month. Of course, the added barely anything twenty
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  Speaker 6: two thousand in August, which was the last month that
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  Speaker 6: we have data available for. It's probably because we are
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  Speaker 6: reaching this point in the economy where growth is achieved
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  Speaker 6: through efficiency and cost cutting as opposed to expansion and hiring.
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  Speaker 6: You know, we see companies hiring and investing, or we
• 17:18
  Speaker 6: see companies investing in intellectual property, you know, artificial intelligence
• 17:23
  Speaker 6: to improve their productivity as opposed to hiring more workers
• 17:27
  Speaker 6: and really expanding at the pace that they did coming
• 17:29
  Speaker 6: out of the pandemic.
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  Speaker 2: Very good, Sarah, thank you so much for joining us today.
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  Speaker 2: We appreciate the time.
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  Speaker 6: Thank you for having me.
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  Speaker 4: That is Sarah Foster from Bank Right, talking about the
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  Speaker 4: labor market.
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: All right, let's do a little bit of trivia here
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: on the financial exchange. And on this day in two
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: thousand and four, Kmart announced it is buying Sears, Roebuck
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: and Company for eleven billion dollars and naming the newly
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: merged company Seers Holdings Corporation. Twenty one years later, there
• 17:56
  Speaker 5: are no Kmar big box stores in the USA US
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: and series and big box stores are down to a
• 18:03
  Speaker 5: small handful. So our trivia question today, what year did
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: the Sears Holdings Corporation file for bankruptcy? Once again, what
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: year did the Sears Holdings Corporation file for bankruptcy? Be
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: the fourth person today at Texas at six one seven
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: three six two thirteen eighty five with the correct answer,
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: and you win a Financial Exchange Show T shirt. Once again.
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: The fourth correct response to Texas to the number six
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: one seven three six two thirteen eighty five will win
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: Dot com Disney and Google, or rather Disney and Alphabet.
• 18:42
  Speaker 4: Who is the parent company of Google? Who's the parent
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: company of YouTube? Who's the parent company of YouTube TV?
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: Is Google the parent company of YouTube? Or is Alphabet
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: the parent company of view?
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: I don't know, Mike, course, it's it's Alphabet soup.
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: Huh.
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: See what I did there?
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: Anyway? Anything going on? I think? There we go? Yep,
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: I knew it was coming.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: In any case, they finally came to an agreement so
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: that you can have ESPN, ABC and whatever other channels
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: are on Disney's networks back, and quite honestly, I didn't
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: miss them. And I'm someone who watches a whole lot
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: of sports, But I'm honestly getting to the point where
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: I'm wondering if I want.
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: To keep a broader subscribe brought streaming package. At this point,
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: I just don't know.
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: Quick break here when we come back, We've got the
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Trivia Answer and Wall Street Watch.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every day.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
• 19:49
  Speaker 7: We're proud to announce that circle K is now the
• 19:51
  Speaker 7: official convenience store of the dav Department of Massachusetts at
• 19:55
  Speaker 7: circle K. Supporting those who bravely served our country isn't
• 19:58
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• 20:01
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• 20:04
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• 20:08
  Speaker 7: If you'd like to do your part, please visit DAVMA
• 20:10
  Speaker 7: dot org. Thank you for standing with circle K and
• 20:13
  Speaker 7: the dav Department of Massachusetts, and thank you veterans.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: For all you've done. Time now for Wall Street. Watch
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: a complete look at what's moving markets so far today
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: right here on the Financial Exchange Radio network.
• 20:30
  Speaker 5: Markets are at the moment mixed. We saw a little
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: blip about twenty minutes ago, but right now dipping into
• 20:36
  Speaker 5: negative territory as investors await in video earnings in addition
• 20:39
  Speaker 5: to retailer earnings from Home, Deep, Boat, Target, and Walmart.
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: Investors also awaiting Thursday's release of the September jobs report.
• 20:48
  Speaker 5: Right now, the Dow is down nearly two tenths of
• 20:51
  Speaker 5: one percent or eighty one points lower. SMP five hundred
• 20:54
  Speaker 5: down about a tenth of a percent or eight points.
• 20:57
  Speaker 5: NASDAK is off merely four points. RUSS two thousand is
• 21:00
  Speaker 5: down over three quarters of a percent or eighteen points lower.
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: Ten year treasurey reeled down one basis point at four
• 21:06
  Speaker 5: point one two nine percent, and crude oil is dipping
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: just below sixty dollars a barrel. Alphabet jumping by about
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: four percent after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it took
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: a stake in the Google parent company in the third
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: quarter and further reduced its stake in Apple Speaking of Apple,
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: the Financial Times reported that the tech giant is ramping
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: up its preparations around identifying and appointing a successor to
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: CEO Tim Cook. Apple stock is down over one and
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: a half percent. Meanwhile, the fifteen days standoff between Disney
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: and Google is over after both companies reached a deal
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: to return ESPN, ABC and other Disney networks to about
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: ten million YouTube TV customers. Disney shares are up nearly
• 21:51
  Speaker 5: one percent, and both Ford and Amazon announced a new
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: partnership was this morning where Ford's franchise dealers will be
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: able to sell certified pre owned vehicles through Amazon. The
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: deal comes a year after Amazon said it would allow
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: auto dealers to sell cars through its site starting with Hyundai.
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watch and
• 22:11
  Speaker 5: in the previous segment, we asked the trivia question what
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: year did the Sears Holdings Corporation file for bankruptcy? That
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: would be twenty eighteen. Bill from Dunbarton, New Hampshire is
• 22:23
  Speaker 5: our winner today taking home the Financial Exchange Show T shirt.
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: Congrats Bell. We play trivia every day here in the
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange Show
• 22:33
  Speaker 5: dot com.
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: Could talk a little bit just about Tim Cook. Yeah,
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: you know, well briefly at least what a guest the
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: older to be honest, sixty five, ye and took over
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: Apple in not because he looks older, but just because
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: he's been running Apple for so long.
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: I would have guessedhim older.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: He's been running the company for fifteen years now. Before that,
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: he spent I want to say it was close to
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: fifteen years running operations there.
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: I think, yeah, ninety eight when Jobs brought Cook to Apple,
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: so he spent almost thirty years there. I mean basically
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: mid thirties through mid sixties. And I still remember after
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: he took over. Do you remember there was that period
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: for maybe like four or five years when every time
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: Apple would give you know, a little like ten percent
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: wobble down, people would be like, well, Cook's not really
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: what Jobs used to be, you know.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: Not Steve Jobs.
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: And it's like, no, he's not. He's I don't want
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: to say better because I think two things can be true.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: I think Steve Jobs was absolutely what Apple needed in
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: order to become what it became, simply because we saw
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: Apple without Steve Jobs and it couldn't go anywhere. Yeap
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: and I think after Jobs passed in twenty eleven, it's
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: pretty clear that Cook has done a fantastic job leading
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: the company through a more mature phase of its life
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: span as well. It's not to say that things wouldn't
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: have been really interesting if Jobs were still alive, but
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: it would be a very different company from what it
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: is today in my opinion.
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: Yeah, today it's a mature tech operator, yeah, rather than
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: a exciting I can't call it an exciting innovator.
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: Today.
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: You kind of almost wonder, how, like, like what what
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: would Steve Jobs be doing if Apple were you know,
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: like you just have those questions, like what would he
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: be doing if Apple were what it is today? Would
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: he still you know, kind of be pushing things the
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: way that he was, or would he have run out
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: of room the same way that Apple's.
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: Kind of weren out of room to innovator? I just
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Let's cover this piece from the Wall Street Journal forgotten
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: four to one K counts are costing Americans billions in
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: lost investment gains?
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: How and why? So important thing to understand about your
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: four oh one case one employers oftentimes ought to enroll you,
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: and so unless you're looking at your paycheck, which should
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: but sometimes people actually genuinely don't notice that they've been
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: established in a four oh one K plan and that
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: portions of their paycheck are going into that one K plan.
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: Buried deep in the disclosures that you get about your
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: four h one K, it says something about what happens
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: if you leave that company and your balance is of
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: a certain dollar amount. And this is again there is
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: no standard across the board, but oftentimes workers with you know,
• 25:18
  Speaker 4: less than ten thousand or less than five thousand dollars
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: in those plans will have, by rule the plan terminated
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: and it'll go into either an IRA. Sometimes they'll send
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: you a check that has to be really small. If
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: it's like under one thousand dollars, that's where it happens.
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: But this is all nuanced and different by employer. And
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: the problem is if they send you a check or
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: turn it into an IRA. In the case of the check,
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: you're gonna be taxed on it and punalized on it.
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: In the case of an IRA, it's gonna sit in
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: cash in most cases or in all cases, and you
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: may miss out on future returns.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: How does someone figure out what the situation is with
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: them in a potential old form one.
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: Reach out to your former employer.
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: If it's been a really long time, you may need
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: to reach out to abandoned property. They would turn it
• 26:08
  Speaker 4: into wherever you were living at the time. Because here's
• 26:11
  Speaker 4: where this is actually happening, especially with young people. You
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: know you're moving every year, they may send you a
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: notice to your old address.
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: If you didn't set up mail forwarding.
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: Once that mail gets returned, then the account becomes abandoned
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: and restricted. If it lasts a certain period of time,
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: they have to turn it over. This stuff can happen,
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: and so I mean first step would be you can
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: go take a look at the state abandoned properties, but
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: reach out to that old employer. Figure out where this
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: stuff is. But most importantly, just don't let it get
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: to this point because the way it gets here is
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: people suddenly have five old four to one ks at
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: four different old employers, and that's how you lose track
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: of this stuff. It's not to say do X or
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: Y with it. It's not to say cash them all out,
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: it's not to say roll them all into iras. There
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: are benefits and drawbacks to doing that, but consolidating down
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: is really the only proven way that I've seen to
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: make sure it's at least able to be tracked and
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: monitored in a meaningful way. If you are in a
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: situation where you might have an old four to one
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: K or you have a current four to one K,
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: you've got iras all over the place, and you're just
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: trying to figure out, Hey, what's the best positioning for
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: me as I continue to save for my future. Give
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: the folks at Armstrong Advisory Group a call. Retirement plans
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: are by their very nature quite complicated. We've gone through
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: all the rule changes when it comes to them over
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: the course of the last few weeks here as we've
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: gotten new contribution limits. But you know, far too often
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: I see people, for instance, have no idea whether they
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: should be contributing to Traditional or Wroth, and then that
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: question of what do I do with the old ones
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: comes up every single day.
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: Again.
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: The Armstrong Advisory Group offers free consultations for you the
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: numbers eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: You can book a time for us to call you
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: back at Armstrong Advisory dot com. But once again that
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: number eight hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: advisory services.
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: Pierce the Wall Street Journal layoff tactics keep changing and
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: the blunders keep coming. So Amazon, as an example, they
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: started laying off fourteen thousand plus employees in the last month,
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: and some of the people they were laying off got
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: a text message while they were like at home getting
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: ready for the day saying, Hey, go check your email,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: And then they got an email titled update regarding your
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: role at Amazon that said, unfortunately your role is being eliminated.
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: So look, there's no good way to lay someone off.
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: No there though, I mean again, Amazon can do whatever
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: they want. I'm not saying that I want some sort
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: of regulation requiring you to do this. No, but at
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: a bare minimum, can't we all agree that if you're
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: firing somebody, have the human decency to put a human
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: in charge of it and either do a I mean
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: a bare.
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: Minimum phone call seems appropriate.
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: And Basically, what Amazon and even what you hear like
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: labor consultants say is, look, you need to do this
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: to as many people as at the same time as
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: possible so that you know rumors don't spread in this
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: and that. And I get that, but look, you hired
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: all of these people seemingly not through text message.
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: Actually in Amazon's case, I'm not sure, but yeah.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of of the opinion that when making hiring
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: and firing decisions. You know, we've complained about how gyms
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: let you sign up online but then make you like
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: come in in order to cancel your membership. I'm kind
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: of of the like the mirror belief for hiring and firing,
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: which is, look, whatever way you hired your employee, you
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: need to fire them the same way because it's basic
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: common human decency.
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: Again, I'm not a proponent of like you don't need
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: to let the French labor system where you basically can't
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: fire anyone ever. No, but just be a person about it,
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: like some basic human decency. If you're going to fire somebody,
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: do it to their face and.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: You don't have like certainly you don't have to be like,
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: well this is so hard for me. No, it's hard
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: for the person you're laying off. Okay, Like, don't be
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: like that CEO who was like crying. It was like,
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: this is the toughest day of my life. It's like, dude,
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: you just laid off your whole team.
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so probably worse for them, yes, but again, you
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: can have a short, succinct, informative conversation as an actual
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: person where you.
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: Do that and at least be human about it. Because
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: this is not target ad one. They had employees log
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: onto a zoom call and the audio glitched out for
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: the first five minutes, and so employees didn't know what
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: was happening. Oh good, and so it was kind of
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: like they didn't know that they had been laid off
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: in some cases. So I just think, again, there's no
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: good way to do it, but there are plenty of
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: bad ones, and companies keep finding new bad ones and
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: way to go Amazon, it's not great to take a
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: quick break when we return stack Roulette.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: Here the Financial Exchange every day from eleven to noon,
• 31:23
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• 31:27
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• 31:30
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• 31:33
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• 31:46
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• 31:53
  Speaker 5: This year's DAV five k was another incredible success, with
• 31:57
  Speaker 5: over fifteen hundred runners and walkers, all supporting the disc
• 32:00
  Speaker 5: Disabled American Veterans Department of Massachusetts. The race results and
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: photo galleries are available to see and if you didn't
• 32:07
  Speaker 5: have a chance to participate, but would still like to
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: support our great American heroes, visit DAV fivek dot Boston.
• 32:14
  Speaker 5: Your gifts help fund free rides to medical appointments for
• 32:16
  Speaker 5: veterans and the nation's first dav leadhousing initiative providing homes
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: for single veterans and veteran families. Go to dav fivek
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: dot Boston and make your donation today. That's Dave five
• 32:28
  Speaker 5: k dot Boston.
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: Mike, what do you got for me? I want to
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: talk about tech moguls building data centers in space. So
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: if you didn't think that the AI trade was quite
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: frothy enough, now they are talking about building AI data
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: centers on the Moon, and they have a bunch of
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: argument's going to use data centers on the moon, Mike,
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: great question. Maybe they're gonna beam the finished data back
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: to us via satellite unclear at this point they beat up,
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: But here is their main compelling argument, as far as
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: I could tell, Yeah, you've got you know, solar panels
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: could be more efficient because of a lack of an
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: atmosphere there and you know, constant sunlight, which okay, I'll
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: buy that for a moment. But mainly the argument seems
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: to be that there's no regulation for developing the Moon,
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: and so you know, you can't get those pesky nimbi's
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: talking about their complaints about a new nuclear power plant
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: in their backyard because nobody lives on the Moon, so
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: we can develop as much AI data centers as we
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: want there, which seems like a pretty pis poor reason
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: to develop AI data centers on the Moon.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: Yes and no, I mean, like I'm thinking this out. Generally,
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: the reason why we have regulations about why you can
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: build what you build where is you don't want something
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: to be a public nuisance. You don't want it to
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: cause you know, pollution. Sure that prohibits people from living
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: there in the future and things like that, and so
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: on one level, I kind of understand it, like if
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: you turn the Moon, if you turn the Moon into
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: a radioactive wasteland, it doesn't really affect anyone.
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: Guess the counterpoint is doesn't have an atmosphere, so I'm
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: not sure where that radioactive waste would end up.
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: Probably on our planet, right, Like I.
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: Don't exactly know the physics of like how this works
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: with you know, alpha and beta particles and like what
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: stops them and what doesn't huh. And I also just think,
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: like again, like not to get all Jurassic Park on
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: you and everything, but like just because you can do
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: something doesn't mean you should do something right. So, you know,
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: I still have some second thoughts about it, but I
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: understand the concept of I like the idea that regulation
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: is so bad that we need to we need to go.
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: To the moon on the moon.
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: I mean, that does kind of feel like something my
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: two year old would say, Yeah, Dad, I don't like
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: the rules around throwing food here, so I'm gonna go
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: to the Moon.
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, okay, it's Jeff Bezos.
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: Good good luck.
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: I want to talk about this piece from the Wall
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: Street Journal over the weekend. It's titled The Ultra Richer
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: Spending a fortune to live in Extreme Privacy. It's not
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: in the stack, but the cover picture is Massud and
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Stephanie show j so G I don't know how to
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: pronounce the last name. I'm sorry. And it's them like
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: climbing onto a private jet with what looks to be
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: like a very expensive handbag and outfit and this and that,
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: and the whole piece talks about like, oh, you can
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: you know, go in through these you know, back doors
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: to these private clubs and private restaurants and this and that,
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: and it's all about privacy, privacy, privacy, and then again
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: like I don't know who these people are because this
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: is not what I watch. But then they just slip
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: in like two thirds of the way down that Stephanie
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: is the president of this real estate group that her
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: and her husband run and a cast member of the
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: Real Housewives of Miami.
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: Doesn't seem all that private. I don't think this is
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: a privacy thing. It's an exclusivity thing. And this is
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: I can have something that you can't that I want
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: to use it privately. If you wanted it privately, you
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: wouldn't have it published in the Wall Street Journey, right,
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: just just call it what it is. They you shared
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: your news, love the image of yourself, and you have
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: you know, quotes in here such as, like the conversations
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: in these places feel safer and feel deeper. Well, probably
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: because you don't have, you know, the other three hundred
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: and thirty million Americans being like, why.
• 36:14
  Speaker 3: Safer because there's no poor people there?
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: Right, Like, just say what you want to say.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: What you're actually saying is that you don't like being
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: around not even poor people, just like the massive evalent,
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: like you don't like being around people.
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: Who aren't as wealthy as you.
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm not saying I agree with that, but
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: if that's what you want to say, Like, that's fine,
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: but don't like coc it under guys, say it up privacy.
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: When you have a TV show talking about basically like
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: how awesome your life is and the stuff that you
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: do on it.
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: That is so I found that just kind of comical. Yeah,
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: that is that is pretty solid. Uh, in the category
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: of other things that I don't understand. Apple is out
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: with a new two hundred and thirty dollars cloth iPhone
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: p ouch it's already sold out, uh, two hundred thirty
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: bucks for again, I'm just seeing the image online. What
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: looks an awful lot like a knitted sock.
• 37:07
  Speaker 5: It looks like Nana's iPhone holder, but she made you
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: this for Christmas.
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: If you want a sock, I can just get you
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: shouldn't be in your.
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: Pocket a little satchel the honey and it's.
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: Like two hundred and thirty dollars. Also, just a few
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: things about this one looks exceedingly easy to steal. I
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: think it would be better in your pocket given that
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: it's now like a fifteen hundred piece, fifteen hundred dollar
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: piece of technical I don't know. This thing looks pretty strong,
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: like did you see the close up of the strap? Yeah,
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: I mean, but again, like a quick pair of scissors
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: looks like it would do that thing in. And I
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: know you can say that about a handbag and everything else,
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: but I'm just confused as to why something as small
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: as a phone needs a sock like pouch to live in.
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: But again, I don't understand fashion.
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: And good for iPhone, for Apple for selling out of
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: these in twenty minutes. Yeah, they they They really did
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: a number on this thing. What if we actually made
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: a sock that could hold an iPhone?
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: Again, I have lost that could fit an iPhone?
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: No no, no, but like not.
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: Because you don't want it touching your skin in the
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: sock that gets sweaty and messy. What about like a
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: pocket on the sock? Got it for your iPhone? I mean,
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: sell the idea to Apple. You may be you may
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: be onto something, Chuck.
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: I think we could we we could call it it's
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: a collaboration with is Miaki, which you know, I know
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: you're very familiar with. Or it could even have a
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: plug on it, Mike, it could be the eye socket
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: that is a triple entoned.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: In case you're not paying attention, just take a quick
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: break for the rest of the day. Tomorrow we have
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: more expensive Apple stuff, hopefully,