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Election Predictions and General Recap · Project 2028

• 0:00
  Hello and welcome to Project 2025. In the ninth installment in today's episode, we are going to be talking about our predictions for the Electoral College, who we think is going to win, what states are going to go to Trump, and what states Kamala is going to win.
• 0:29
  And why we think this. If you would like to see our maps, they will be up on our Instagram and in the comments you can vote on who you think is better.
• 0:40
  But after that we are going to transition into a three topic, kind of what has happened this week in politics, and we're going to talk about two people in specific in US politics, and then we are going to be talking about Israel and the war going on with them.
• 1:07
  But in 100% transparency, these are supposed to be two different episodes, so you will get another introduction when we introduce the general recap.
• 1:19
  So please feel free to share any of your thoughts with us and enjoy this episode.
• 1:27
  Brian is going to start us off with his political map. It is kind of hard to explain the map without visually seeing it so if you want to listen while looking at the map, it will be on our Instagram.
• 1:40
  And if you are able to visualize it without that, that is great.
• 1:56
  Alright, so we are going to start with my map and this one was generated off of a map with the preemptive strong states, but we filled in, or I filled in, a lot of the swing states.
• 2:10
  And where I see this going is going to be 277 votes for Republicans, 261 votes for Democrats.
• 2:16
  Kind of to preface this whole episode right now, Harris has around a 45% chance of winning, or a 55% chance of winning, and Trump has a 45% chance of winning.
• 2:26
  The popular vote is Trump is underwater by 2.4 points nationally, and that is kind of where it is looking nationally.
• 2:37
  But what I see and where I see this kind of going is we are just going to start and I am going to kind of walk through swing states. I didn't change anything significant, right?
• 2:46
  Florida is not going to flip blue, nothing like that, at least in my model. But what you are going to see, Nevada, it is very close so far.
• 2:54
  It is one of the closest even though it has not been paid attention to as much because it only has six electoral college votes.
• 2:59
  So I saw that going down. But then you moved a bit down to more Sunbelt states, and I see Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, them all going Republican, just based on current polling right now and polling that we have had from years before and what that kind of looked like.
• 3:15
  Though Pennsylvania, it has been looking strong Democrat, and that is where I put it, is definitely going to be one of the stronger states. And if they can't win Pennsylvania, their road to 270 is a lot harder than it is without.
• 3:30
  I gave Michigan, with its 15 electoral college votes, to the Democrats. And then Wisconsin, which Dems are leading by around 1.5 points, I gave to the Republicans for like one reason.
• 3:40
  And that reason is historically Wisconsin has been underrepresented Republican-wise, especially in the past two elections, by four or five points. Maybe they have corrected it.
• 3:49
  But from what I have been hearing and listening to and seeing, I don't see much of too much correction in polling error. So I am going to give it to them temporarily.
• 4:00
  Joe Biden only won it by a few tenths of a percentage point, and I see it go in Republicans. So that is what it is going to be. Democrats will have 173 strong electoral votes, which means that it is very, very hard for any of the other parties to flip it.
• 4:15
  Republicans would have 144 strong, and then the Democrats would have 67 pretty strong, which would be less than strong, but moderately hard to flip for the other party.
• 4:25
  The Republicans would have 83. And then the Republicans would have 80 votes from swing states, and the Republicans would have 21, so from swingy states.
• 4:34
  But Republicans would all include Florida and stuff like that, where it is kind of within five points, ten points, that kind of range, underwater-wise.
• 4:43
  So that is kind of the way I see it going. And the change would basically be throughout Illinois, California, all losing those electoral votes. That could really affect some stuff in the election.
• 4:59
  So that is kind of where I see my map going. And up next is going to be Elle's map and then Luchano's map, and they are going to kind of talk about their scenarios.
• 5:08
  Okay, so on my map, I kind of have a similar setup to Brian. The main difference between our maps is Nevada. I see Nevada going Republican barely.
• 5:21
  I think it will be a pretty close battle for Nevada, but I do think Trump will win the state.
• 5:27
  And then a lot of the other differences between my map and the other two's maps is just the amount of control the party will have over the state.
• 5:37
  I think states like Pennsylvania and Georgia will be a lot less controlled by the states compared to a state like Illinois or Missouri.
• 5:48
  I also think Kamala has a slight chance of maybe swinging Florida, but I did not put that on my map because I feel as though that probability is very, very low.
• 6:00
  Not saying it's impossible, but it probably will not happen in this election.
• 6:04
  Same thing with Wisconsin. I do think Trump is going to pull ahead in Wisconsin. I think he's going to take those 10 electoral votes.
• 6:13
  However, I do see it becoming a democratic state in the near future.
• 6:20
  Now, again, these are kind of our predictions. So I think that Kamala will get 260 electoral votes and Trump will get 278.
• 6:31
  We are seeing a lot of support from women in states that usually lean more Republican.
• 6:37
  However, I don't believe there will be enough to really swing any of these states.
• 6:42
  That's kind of all for my map here. I'm going to now swing you over to Luchana to talk about her map.
• 6:47
  No pun intended.
• 6:48
  According to Ryan, no pun intended.
• 6:50
  Hi, everyone. It's Luchana.
• 6:52
  So I'm going to be going over my map of how I think the Electoral College will play out.
• 6:58
  So I think that it will be a very tight race.
• 7:02
  I have the Democratic Party winning with 271 votes and the Republicans losing with 267.
• 7:12
  So this is pretty close. Some of the main differences I have with the other two are so Ryan has Nevada going blue.
• 7:22
  I have it going red like L does, but I also have Wisconsin going blue, which neither of them have.
• 7:31
  I think this because right now Wisconsin is pulling 49 percent for Harris and 47 percent for Trump.
• 7:38
  So when Biden dropped out of the race, they became more liberal, which is really interesting.
• 7:47
  I honestly don't have a lot to say on this. Mine is very similar to them, with the exception of I'm the only one who has Kamala winning.
• 7:57
  I think she'll win because recently a lot of women have become more liberal when Kamala decided to run and a lot of them don't want Trump.
• 8:06
  I think that's really going to be going well for her.
• 8:09
  And I think the polls have really been showing that it's looking better for her than Trump recently.
• 8:15
  So that's why I have Kamala winning.
• 8:18
  And so while I think it's going to be a very close election and I think we're not going to get the results immediately, I think they're going to take a little bit.
• 8:28
  I do think Kamala is going to end up winning in the end.
• 8:31
  That is going to conclude this super short episode today.
• 8:36
  This episode is mainly just for you guys to kind of get an idea of where our heads are at, specifically with this election and how we think it's going to go without it being a super long conversation.
• 8:50
  Please vote for whoever's prediction you think is going to be the most accurate or the one that you agree with the most on our Instagram project, Twenty Twenty Eight Dot Podcast.
• 9:02
  The website we used to make our map is two hundred seventy to win.
• 9:09
  Please feel free to make your own and share it with us.
• 9:13
  You can make a post and tag us on Instagram.
• 9:16
  You could email it to us at Project Twenty Twenty Eight Dot Pod at Gmail Dot com.
• 9:22
  Thank you guys so much for listening to this episode.
• 9:25
  Have a fantastic rest of your day and don't forget to vote.
• 9:39
  All right, guys, what's up? This is going to be the general recap episode.
• 9:42
  We're just going to kind of talk about an assortment of things that have happened over the past few weeks.
• 9:48
  We're going to start with some stuff about Mark Robinson, who's running for governor of North Carolina.
• 9:53
  Some stuff that happened, in fact, today regarding mayor of New York, Eric Adams, and the federal investigation.
• 9:59
  Some stuff about Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah and some of the U.N. stuff that's been happening recently.
• 10:06
  So we got a big episode, not necessarily domestic, but we have some some good topics along the way.
• 10:13
  So we're going to get started with Mark Robinson, who is already trailing the polls and just a week ago was revealed in a few publications.
• 10:22
  In fact, he had made a number of inflammatory comments on adult websites calling himself a black Nazi and other things related to that kind of rhetoric.
• 10:36
  This just doesn't help anybody, really, in the Republican Party.
• 10:39
  He's already losing the North Carolina race, even though North Carolina is favored to go to president, former President Donald Trump.
• 10:47
  The governor race is one of the few cases where you're going to see split ticket voting at a kind of very macro level with states and federal.
• 10:57
  The split ticket voting isn't nearly as common as it used to be.
• 11:00
  This is going to be one of the few cases, at least, that's expected to have a split ticket regarding governor and federal.
• 11:08
  But with that said, Robinson has denied it.
• 11:11
  Everything, all the Republicans are asking Robinson to prove they didn't do it.
• 11:15
  However, it always keeps pointing back to him.
• 11:18
  It's had those comments was posted by a handle that is commonly used by Mr. Robinson, and he doesn't seem to be able to escape this.
• 11:28
  He was a former deputy governor, and he just can't really seem to catch a break with this.
• 11:34
  So that's kind of how that's going.
• 11:36
  We'll update you more on the polling of it in the next few weeks.
• 11:40
  Kind of to move over to another topic, however somewhat related, Mayor Eric Adams of New York was arraigned in indicted today for campaign finance violations.
• 11:52
  He allegedly tried to skirt federal election campaign laws and divert funding to his campaign from foreign national groups.
• 12:03
  And actually, just breaking news, 17 minutes ago, he was just charged with bribery and fraud.
• 12:09
  This really does not look good for him.
• 12:11
  He was just searched today by the U.S. federal government.
• 12:15
  And Damian Williams, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, said Adams has taken over $100,000 in graft and used his powers to help Turkey.
• 12:24
  This was an ongoing storyline for the past year or so.
• 12:28
  But it was just today that he was searched by the federal government and has been indicted and arraigned for it.
• 12:34
  This is a big, big event in national politics, even so because New York has such a big influence over what the national picture looks like with a lot of laws about huge companies and big size corporations in its jurisdiction.
• 12:53
  We will see and update you guys as the Adams trial plays out.
• 12:57
  And I think Elle has something she wants to say about it.
• 13:00
  So not only is this a super big case for the reason Ryan said, but also he is the first occupant of City Hall to be charged with federal crimes.
• 13:13
  The mayor has been denouncing the charges and insisting that they would not distract him from managing New York.
• 13:22
  Mayor Adams is the second black mayor we've seen in New York.
• 13:27
  And people have been chanting and shouting and writing things about him, such as he abused his power and that he is a disgrace to David Dinkins, who was the first African-American mayor.
• 13:40
  So how do you think this is going to really affect New York, Ryan?
• 13:44
  Do you think we're going to see a change in kind of who they are choosing to be their mayor and also not just like on a local level, but on a national level, do you think there will be kind of a change in the way New York is polling?
• 14:02
  So kind of the answer that the way I see it right now is New York's never going to flip.
• 14:08
  You would need, I mean, New York City itself would be so far from flipping, you would need an influx of millions upon millions of people.
• 14:17
  But New York State in and of itself is in teens, if not 20s of points Republicans are underwater by.
• 14:26
  So I just don't see it as viable.
• 14:28
  I guess I didn't really mean flip.
• 14:30
  I think I more meant, will they be more cautious about who just like fully putting all their support in the liberal candidate, or will they will we see more of policies being taken into consideration rather than party?
• 14:47
  Oh, well, I mean, Democratic primaries basically determine seats in New York.
• 14:52
  So I guess Democratic primaries could become more contested.
• 14:55
  But they're already very contested because that's basically in and of itself the election.
• 14:59
  To be honest, I'm not sure what it is with New York, but they have George Santos now, Eric Adams, who have repeatedly flaunted and went past all campaign finance violations in ways that are horrible and unbecoming.
• 15:13
  So I don't think it's necessarily a product of New York.
• 15:16
  But that's what I see that the primaries may heat up, though it's already very competitive.
• 15:21
  So that's kind of the way I see it.
• 15:23
  Yeah.
• 15:24
  Do you think we will see Mayor Adams being impeached or do you think he will resign?
• 15:30
  And who do you think would take over for him in this type of case?
• 15:35
  The way I see it is the impeachment would definitely or has definitely a very likely chance of coming.
• 15:43
  He would be replaced by Sheena Wright, the deputy mayor.
• 15:47
  And it would it wouldn't be that big of a hit to the Democratic Party, but just to Mayor Adams himself.
• 15:53
  Now, it is we do not know yet if Sheena Wright was part of this.
• 15:57
  So that would be something we would have to see.
• 15:59
  But also, I do not have the full day of the elections, but they could be coming up soon.
• 16:05
  So it could be referendum, an emergency referendum if needed.
• 16:09
  But there are many ways they could kind of approach this.
• 16:11
  If you were to be also I see if you were to be convicted criminally, he would most most definitely step down from his role.
• 16:19
  So that's kind of where I see that.
• 16:20
  So we are now going to flip into a conversation about the war going on in Israel and Hamas and also the recent attack that Israel did against Hezbollah.
• 16:35
  OK, so just to start off with some general statistics about the war in Israel.
• 16:41
  One thousand one hundred and thirty nine people have been killed since October 7th and also eight thousand seven hundred and thirty have been injured since then.
• 16:52
  In Gaza, at least forty one thousand five hundred and thirty four people have been killed, including 16,500 children and more than ninety six thousand ninety two people are injured and more than 10,000 are missing.
• 17:07
  With the recent attacks on Hezbollah, 12 people died and over 2000 were injured.
• 17:14
  These attacks occurred because the members of Hezbollah's phones were getting tapped and the codes were broken by Israel so they couldn't send secure messages anymore.
• 17:27
  So they switched over to using pagers.
• 17:29
  But as these pagers were sent through a Hungarian group and this group was affiliated with Israel, so they basically said, you know, we'll save you the hassle.
• 17:38
  We'll put these together for you.
• 17:40
  And when they were putting them together, they included a small explosive that would go off whenever a certain message was sent.
• 17:48
  So then thousands of people got these pagers and then the company sent all the phones this message and all of them blew up, which was what killed 12 people and injured over 2000.
• 18:01
  And just as we're recording this podcast, Israel is planning to do a ground invasion of Lebanon with Hezbollah, obviously in mind.
• 18:10
  So this is just happening live just minutes ago and it is being planned kind of as we carry out this podcast is what the reporting has been indicating.
• 18:19
  So just to kind of chime in on that.
• 18:21
  But to get back to them, the attacks were were heavily sophisticated.
• 18:27
  The Israeli intelligence services, whose failure on October 7th has been the subject of much scrutiny, did a pretty incredible job of what they needed to do and what they were trying to accomplish.
• 18:38
  And they did a really good job of their their goal in this.
• 18:41
  So that's kind of that from that Israeli side of view.
• 18:46
  And that's kind of that.
• 18:47
  Ryan, do you think this will change any of the presidential candidates opinions on this war and specifically who they're choosing to support and endorse or continue to provide aid to?
• 18:59
  So we've always provided aid to Israel and we always will because that's that's U.S. foreign policy.
• 19:04
  What was this deal if it was not to have them get rid of Israel, get rid of their nuclear weapons because they still do have them?
• 19:13
  What was their end of the deal? Did we just tell them we would always help them?
• 19:17
  Well, what we all the U.S. defense policy is that we have a strategic investment in Israel, seeing as it's in the Middle East, seeing as we've provided them with Iron Dome, other defense initiatives.
• 19:30
  We have a significant stake in Israel and seeing Israel's success, at least on the defense part of policy.
• 19:37
  But definitely if this invasion of Lebanon reaches, you know, stuff that we're seeing Gaza right now, that could definitely also presidential candidates and their views about this, specifically the Democratic views.
• 19:51
  But I wouldn't see much change, at least right now, from what we're seeing.
• 19:55
  And it's so close to Election Day that it would be hard to change views so quickly.
• 19:59
  Thank you so much for listening to this episode of Project 2028.
• 20:04
  As always, if you liked this episode, please follow us on Instagram at project2028.podcast.
• 20:12
  If you didn't like this episode, I'm really sorry. We don't have an Instagram account.
• 20:16
  And if you have any feedback, please feel free to email us at project2028.pod at Gmail.com.
• 20:25
  And don't forget to vote.
• 20:28
  Thank you so much. Have a great day.