Latest / Best of Business / Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management expert on the latest economic data revealing things are still shrinking

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Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management expert on the latest economic data revealing things are still shrinking · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News talks'd be follow
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  Speaker 2: Now Shane solely harbor Asset Management is with me right now?
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  Speaker 2: Heys Shane, I hear that. Okay, So the latest economic
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  Speaker 2: data suggests we're still going a bit backwards, are we?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah?
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  Speaker 3: Look the beings businesses and performance of services next. It
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  Speaker 3: fell to forty seven point five for the month of August,
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  Speaker 3: down from forty eight point nine last month in July.
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  Speaker 3: I'm remembering the measure below fifty that means the activity
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  Speaker 3: is sliding. This August number is actually the eighteenth month
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  Speaker 3: in a row of contraction. So the unicator suggesting the
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  Speaker 3: economy is still contracting in the third quarter recovery struggling
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  Speaker 3: to gain momentum. So maybe not enough features.
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  Speaker 2: Maybe not enough. And what about the Chinese economic data?
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  Speaker 2: What's that saying?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, unfortunately another mess you know wasn't mess and mess,
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  Speaker 3: but it's again a trend where we're seeing the Chinese
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  Speaker 3: economy and not really reacting to some of the similars
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  Speaker 3: that's spent and our studio in the years, and that's true.
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  Speaker 3: Output for August it was up five point two percent
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  Speaker 3: that was that's a year on year that was lower
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  Speaker 3: than expectation of five point six. The fixed investment rose
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  Speaker 3: half a percent year on year estimate was one and
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  Speaker 3: a half and August resale sales were up three point
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  Speaker 3: four percent. Estimate was three point next so miss miss
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  Speaker 3: miss not surprising. If we did see some more similars
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  Speaker 3: from Chinese authorities. They have got this GDP target for
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  Speaker 3: the full year of five percent, so their economic growth
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  Speaker 3: target is five percent and they'll probably try and get
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  Speaker 3: there with some stimulus.
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  Speaker 2: Now, what are you expecting from the Fed Reserve later
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  Speaker 2: this week?
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  Speaker 3: So yeah, it's a big week for central banks. We've
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  Speaker 3: got four central banks talking this week. The big one,
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  Speaker 3: of course, is the US Federal Reserve. That precision is
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  Speaker 3: out on Thursday morning is ze in time. The current
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  Speaker 3: rate is four point twenty five to four point five
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  Speaker 3: in the us da A range. The market's very confident
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  Speaker 3: it's going to be a zero point two five cut
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  Speaker 3: to a four to four point two five range. In fact,
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  Speaker 3: ninety three percent probability ahead of that being priced and
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  Speaker 3: the other seven percent the balance that's actually for our
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  Speaker 3: half a fifty basis point cut. And mister Trump's come
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  Speaker 3: out this morning is zee timer. So he's expecting a
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  Speaker 3: big cut, so I guess he is. And when we
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  Speaker 3: look at what's setting in with the economy, there is
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  Speaker 3: some slowing down and confidence, so perhaps there is a
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  Speaker 3: bit of similars needed. And certainly the other thing we've
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  Speaker 3: going to think about is capital markets have run quite
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  Speaker 3: hard in the expectation of rat cuts, so there's always
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  Speaker 3: the quantum of the move and the commentary will influence things.
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  Speaker 3: Then backing there, we're also got the Bank of Canada,
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  Speaker 3: Bank of England, and Bank of Japan out later this week.
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  Speaker 3: Bank of Canada probably cut as well, given their economy
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  Speaker 3: is being hit by terraffs.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, now, a whole bunch of company news here in
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  Speaker 2: New Zealand. What caught your eye?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, look, it was actually lots of little nugget today
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  Speaker 3: Pacific ch This is the producer by the cancer detection tests.
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  Speaker 3: They have a little bit of a win one of
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  Speaker 3: the US regulators saying, hey, well, look we're going to
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  Speaker 3: consider covering insurance for some of their tests. Stop price
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  Speaker 3: went up twenty four percent. Long way to go there
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  Speaker 3: in that process, but it's a good step spark some
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  Speaker 3: more changes in the ship team to get to their
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  Speaker 3: f y thirty ambitions and what she didn't really help
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  Speaker 3: spark She plays down over the one point three percent
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  Speaker 3: Aukland Airport. A bit of an improvement there in traffic
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  Speaker 3: this who are two percent increase in international passengers and August
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  Speaker 3: for the month and they're actually seeing some bigger aircraft
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  Speaker 3: coming on here there's a five percent increase in the
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  Speaker 3: aircraft that she brought us up one percent. Maybe you've
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  Speaker 3: got a little bit of a boost from the New
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  Speaker 3: Zealand government seventy million events boost, tourism boosts and Baby
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  Speaker 3: two and then finally we had literacy, General contact Energy.
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  Speaker 3: Their August operating stats were but better than expected higher
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  Speaker 3: gifden or higher hydro lake production. So she probably stilled
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  Speaker 3: down one percent on the day, so but better better
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  Speaker 3: in general across the board.
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  Speaker 2: Be good stuff, Shane, Thanks so much for running us
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  Speaker 2: through at Shane solely Harbor Asset Management.
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