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Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Polling Numbers Should Terrify The GOP + Trump Has No Good Options For Iran War · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: Shipstation dot com use the code toodcast. Hello there, and
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  Speaker 1: welcome to the May fourth episode of the Chuck Podcast.
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  Speaker 1: And there is a reason I am time stamping it
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  Speaker 1: with the date rather than just simply saying welcome to
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  Speaker 1: the next episode of the check Todd kaskas. May the
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: fourth is a big deal in the Todd household. And
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: no it's not because we're Star Wars junkies. It is
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: the birth of our oldest child. So I have to
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: start off with a big happy birthday to my oldest child.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: I am drinking out of her coffee mug. Margaret right there.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: It's big week for her. It's not just a big
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: birthday week for her, but she graduates college this week.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Hence I'm showing out. So you're just gonna forgive me
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: for being proud dad here. I'm just blown away by
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: how successful she was and she has been, and I
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: can't wait to see her jump right in. She's gonna
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: have an oceanography degree minor and meteorology, so she is
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: here to help solve climate change or at least help
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: us all prepare and to live in this changed climate.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: But University of Miami has been a terrific place for
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: her to get that kind of education. They do probably have,
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: if not the leading school in environmental sciences and in
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: the ocean. In the ocean sciences, it is one of
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: the leading schools. And they should be right. They're right
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: there on the ocean, so it's like them. It's UCSD
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: on the Pacific side of things, right. Yeah, there's a
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: couple of other coastal schools, but we're gonna we're gonna
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: give it to you know, we're going to be parochial
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: here and give it to Miami. So you'll just forgive me.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: I'm in a just a good mood, and I'm on
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: and an extra good mood because I had a horrendous
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: half of my weekend. But it gets solved and then
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I had a good part of the weekend. So why
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: did I have a hormdous part of the weekend? Because
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I spent Friday and Saturday trying to pass a kidney stone.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: This is not something that is new to me. Unfortunately,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: I am one of those. For those of you that
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: get kidney stones, you know what this is. You either
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: are somebody whose physiology is prone to it or somebody
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: who isn't. This is what I've learned over the years.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: I do my best to mitigate it. I'd gone almost
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: two years without having one, and I have learned over time.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Believe it or not, I have done episodes of Meet
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: the Press while dealing with a kidney stone. I have
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: done Election Night while dealing with a kidney stone. I
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: did a whole bunch of interviews on Friday while something
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: was developing and I could start to feel it. The
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  Speaker 1: real pain hit me though Friday night. Didn't really sleep
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: much this Saturday and then Saturday evening. Sweet Relief And
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: if you want to understand the Sweet Relief, go watch
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: The episode of sign feldber Kramer deals with the kidney stone,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: the before and the after in many ways that the
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: whistling and the happiness and the light on your feet,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: there is something to it. Needless to say, I mean
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: an even better and an excellent good mood after what
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: was half my weekend in typical agony there, but I digress.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Look a few more housekeeping notes. There is a brand
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: new episode of Dynastic. Got we Ja Donde and I
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: dive deep into the Pittsburgh Steelers, just one of the
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: iconic franchises in the NFL, almost an original, pretty close
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: to being an original. Came into the league in the
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: nineteen thirties and has been owned by the same family
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: ever since. I have to tell you the things that
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: I loved learning in this episode and of what we
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: put together in Dynastic was just sort of the early
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: roots of Art Rooney Senior, the original owner of the Steelers.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: This was basically a sports promoter in Pittsburgh who could
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: take the football, you could take it or leave it.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I really love baseball, you love boxing, love horse racing.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Just one of the great characters. It's his son, Dan Rooney,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: that's truly the football man of Pittsburgh and in many
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: ways is the owner that helped create the conditions to
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: build the dynasty that was the Pittsburgh Steelers in the
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  Speaker 1: nineteen seventies and it's still sustained excellence today. We have
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: some terrific stories We're gonna have a great interview with
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: that's going to dive deeper into the iconic era of
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: the Steelers, and that'll be coming up. I'll be promoting
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: that as soon as it hits the feed. But do
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: me a favor. We've been putting this in our audio
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: feed and I appreciate so many of you have already
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• 6:40
  Speaker 1: building something different. This is you know. I don't just
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: want all my political junkies only listening to this. We've
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: got plenty of great sports fans and we just would
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: love for you to help us out as we build
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: and grow. I just I have to tell you this
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: budding friendship I have with Jayadande is one of the
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: best new things I've got going this year. It's really
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: been a pleasure and a joy to work with him,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: to be challenged by him, love the way he thinks
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: as a journalist. So we just it's been a terrific partnership.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: And if you're wondering what our next dive is going
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: to be in the month of June, it is the Warriors.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: And I'm going to say Warriors because they weren't always
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: in Golden State and it isn't only going to be
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: about Steph Curry. They had this other iconic basketball player
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: you might have heard of, a couple of them that
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: you might have heard of, one by the name of
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Wilt Chamberlain and the other by the name of Rick Berry.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: So this is a franchise that is one of those
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: that I think people think Lakers, Celtics, and believe it
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: or not, the third most NBA titles ever, the Warriors.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So we're going to dive into them in June. I'm
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: reading Rick Berry's memoir right now, Old University of Miami. Guy.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: It is fascinating. So I wanted to get that housekeeping
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: a bit out of the way. Oh, one more big thing,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: crystalis and I will be and decision desk HQ and
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Jeff Scaley You're going to be doing our pretty much
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: every Tuesday, but I think the three of the next
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: four Tuesdays we're going to be doing election night live streams.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: We got this Tuesday to me the Indiana primaries. I'm
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: going to talk about that coming up in my dialogue,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: but these Indiana primaries are going to say a lot
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: about how lame is the duck that's sitting in the
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  Speaker 1: Oval office at the moment. So we'll be covering that
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  Speaker 1: starting at seven pm Eastern, So please tune into that
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  Speaker 1: Tuesday night. So we've got that going on. So there's
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  Speaker 1: your full update on all things both personal and professional there.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So let's let's dive into this week in politics and
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  Speaker 1: what I've been digesting over the weekend and the big
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: thing that we got over the weekend in what I
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: would call sort of political analyst land is two good
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  Speaker 1: deep dive polls, one from Pew and the other from
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: the Washington Post ABC in episodes get it both out
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: of the way. They're both panel surveys. Most everything is
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: now a panel survey, do you know, do I wish
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: we could do more face to face, more actual random
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: sample surveys. I do. It's not just cost prohibitive, but
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: it's just very hard to get people to be responsive.
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  Speaker 1: So it's not that I'm skeptical of panel surveys, but
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  Speaker 1: I just always you know, you know, the panel survey
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  Speaker 1: e right, is going to be a professional poll taker
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  Speaker 1: in some form. And I know it's random sample and
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  Speaker 1: they don't take that many, but if you've agreed to
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: be in the panel, you know you're going to be
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  Speaker 1: doing these things. Look, they've been remarkably consistent with and
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: certainly I think are directionally something to pay attention to.
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  Speaker 1: And they've been doing it for a few years now,
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  Speaker 1: so you know, as I always say, it doesn't you know,
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  Speaker 1: if you keep your methodology the same, then your trend
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  Speaker 1: lines matter more to me. And Pugh keeps their methodology
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  Speaker 1: the same, and ABC and the Post and IPSOS since
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  Speaker 1: they've gone into this partnership and gone away from live
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  Speaker 1: collar polling, theirs have been consistent. So I just wanted
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: to get those caveats out of the way because I
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: know some of you know I'm a big stickler on
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: pole methodology, and I certainly can't stand averaging of polls
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: because that's just wasteful and lazy. But these are two
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: good polls worth diving into. And let's just say, I've
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: got a lot of interesting thess that I want to
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: share with you and extrapolate on. So look, here's the
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: big I think headline from it. We've certainly had our
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: share of on popular presidents, We've had our share of
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: controversial presidents. But we're seeing a presidency lose confidence at
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  Speaker 1: everything all at once. It's not just job approval, it's
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: not just the professional side of things. Voters and Americans
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: are losing confidence in his personal in President Trump's judgment,
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: in his stability, and they certainly don't have trust. And
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: what may be even more striking with what we're watching
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: right now, one political party is still largely standing behind him,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: and yet his numbers are this bat and it's because
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: he's cratering among independents, and that is that is the
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: tipping point. That's why we're that's the difference between a
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: good night for Democrats and a wave for the Democrats.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: So let me get into this. So, look, you've seen
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: probably the headline number about his job rating sitting at
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: thirty four percent, but this is bigger than that, and
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: I kind of want to I kind of want to
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: get at that a minute. Here he is. You know,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go to the Post Post. He's thirty
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: four percent in the Pew poll and thirty seven percent
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: in the Post Pole. But that thirty seven percent is
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: actually one of his better numbers on overall job rating,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: right because among cost of living, his approval in the
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Post is twenty three percent. On inflation, it's twenty seven percent.
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  Speaker 1: On Iran, it's thirty three percent. On relations with US
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  Speaker 1: allies thirty three percent, on the economy thirty four percent.
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  Speaker 1: He is only above his overall job rating on the
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: issue of taxes thirty eight percent, immigration forty percent, and
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  Speaker 1: the border forty five percent. Think about that his best issue.
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  Speaker 1: He's underwater on in the Washington Post. Every single major
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: issue you can think of, taxes, immigration, the economy, foreign affairs,
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: this war in Iran. It is all upside down. And
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: again his approval rating is actually is actually better than
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: when you start to dive inside the specifics, in the details,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: and look, when you're sitting at thirty seven percent, that
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: means the only people that approve of you you are
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: people in your own party. So it's the hardcore base,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: and his base right now is about two thirds are
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: with him. Sixty seven to seventy percent are with them.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: They make up that strong thirty seven percent. There's about
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: a third of the Republican Party who does not identify
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: as MAGA, who doesn't like many of these decisions. Now
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: let me move over to the Pew pole. I'm going
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: to match up these job ratings that you heard with
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: the majorities of Americans that just simply lack confidence in
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Trump to make good decisions on key issues. He is
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: again has a upside down on confidence across the board
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: in everything they asked, at least the best he did.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: The best he did is has forty two percent of
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: people think have confidence in him to make good decisions.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: On the economy, that's his best performing number. Fifty eight
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: percent do not believe, do not have a lot of
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: confidence or no confidence at all that he can make
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: good decisions on economic policy. So let me go down.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: That's just economic policy, and that's the best performing number
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: he has. He gets fifty eight percent of basically a
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: no confidence vote, fifty eight percent on immigration policy, no
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: confidence vote, fifty eight percent on trade policy. It's fifty
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: nine percent on law enforcement and criminal justice issues. Again,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: these are the no or low confidence numbers, sixty percent
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: on managing the executive branch, sixty one percent on using
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: military force wisely. Again, all low confidence numbers here, sixty
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: four percent of making good decisions about healthcare policy, sixty
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: six percent on working effectively with Congress. It's his own party, right,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: his own party controls Congress, and yet sixty six percent
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: of all Americans do not have confidence he knows how
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: to work with them. It's astonishing. Seventy two percent have
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: little confidence that he can bring the country together, and
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: seventy four percent have little confidence that he can work
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: well with Democratic leaders. So the point is, this is
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: in across the board repudiation. When you take these pulls together,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: this is and the question is is this bottom right?
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: That's the only thing you got to ask yourselves or Republicans,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: And I'm and i am here to tell you it
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: may not be. So. The bottom line is, there is
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: not a single issue that was measured in either the
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: pew pole or the post pole where a majority of
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Americans say he's got this, not one, not even the border, right,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: that's the limits test. The border, the single issue that
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: he has always pulled the highest on, he is now
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: underwater on that and in some ways if he's underwater
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: on that, which is something he has actually fulfilled the
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: promise he made on the campaign trail. Oh brother, everything
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: else is a disaster, and he's starting You're starting to
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: see it show up more and more in some character questions,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: because when you look at the character issues, it gets
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: warzt and it actually makes me think that there's something
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: more here to the Trump base that I think we
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: overlook sometimes. And I'm going to get to that in
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: a minute. But you know, this stuff always goes hand
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: in hand, right when they start to not like your
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: professional duties, then suddenly the character issues that maybe they
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: overlooked suddenly become more important. Let me give you a
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: one number here that just blew me away. Seventy one
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: percent do not believe he's honest or trustworthy. Seventy one percent.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: I'm going to tell you, I went in research to
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: see if any president had ever gotten that high. Now, look,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: it's not a quote. Even in Nixon's worst days, his
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: personal unfavorable rating hit sixty six percent. Never got over
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: seventy percent. Bill Clinton, during the height of the Monica
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Lewinsky scandal, his personal judgment honest and trustworthy question got
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: to sixty five percent during the height of unpopularity of
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: the Iraq War. That honest and trustworthy, right the quote
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: big lie about WMD for George W. Bush, the high
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: on the untrustworthy number got to about the mid to
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: high fifties. Donald Trump has broken through the seventy percent
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: barrier on this honest and trustworthy. And look, this is
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: something that was always kind of built in. Everybody kind
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: of knew this wasn't an honest guy, but it was
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: sort of like, he's my honest guy. Is what the
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: way dish this guy is the way many of his
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: voters I think saw him. And when things aren't going
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: well for you, then suddenly that stuff matters more. Anyway,
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: It's just a number that I think is much more,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: much more of a bigger deal because it means to
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: get to seventy one percent. That's a lot of Republicans
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: that have decided he's not honest and trustworthy. By the way.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Going down these character questions, sixty seven percent say he
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: does not carefully consider decisions, meaning he's a too whimsical
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: about them, and fifty four percent do not believe is
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: a strong leader. Look, Donald Trump, I think you know,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: you know, he's sort of the whole The whole idea
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: is the facade of strong leader. Right, the whole idea
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: is a facade of strength, and he puts up a
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: facade of strength every day. So the fact that he
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: tries to project strength and a majority of the country
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: do not believe is a strong leader is even more damning. Right.
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: It's not like a Joe Biden who chose not to
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: project strength publicly, and of course people then of course
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: fed into the idea that he wasn't a strong leader.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Trump actually tries to portray himself as a strong leader,
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: and he still got a majority believing he's not a
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: strong leader. These are end of presidency type stuff. This
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: is why I think there is already a duck in
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: the Oval office. And that duck's pretty and it is
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: probably uncrutches because that duck is flame. Now, let's look
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: at this interesting coalition, and I think it tells you
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: which voters have peeled away from Donald Trump. First, there
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: was a great question about that. Pugh asked about whether
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: Trump was keeping his promises or going to keep his promises.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: And at the beginning, you know, this was among people
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: who voted for Trump and ninety five percent of them
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: at the start of this administration expecting him to keep
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: all of his promise promises. Right, it is now down
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: to seventy eight percent of Trump voters who believe he's
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: keeping his promise, which means you have this gap, right,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: nearly a twenty point gap. So those are these voters
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: who have been going back and forth. These are the
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: vote voters that Trump has already lost. These are more Latino.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: These are voters that have been sitting in the independent
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: column more than in the Republican column. But this was
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: a reminder that he was renting this coalition. You know,
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: when you win over somebody that you didn't win over
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: in a previous election, you don't own them as as
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: part of your coalition. You're kind of renting them. And
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: if you succeed over time, you might own them. And
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: if you don't, they're going to quickly leave. Well, it
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: looks like they've quickly left. These are these Latino swing
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: voters in Texas that we've all been focused on. It's
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: not just Texas but all along in the Southwest, in
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: particular Texas, Arizona, Florida to a degree in Florida, but
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: really more Texas and Arizona. This is why there's real
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: questions about how Republicans drew that map in Texas. Assuming
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: that this shift among Latino voters that has been taking
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: place over a couple elections and titles cycles was permanent,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: it ain't permanent. These are swing voters, and we're starting
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: to see the evidence. This episode of the Chuck Podcast
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  Speaker 1: absolutely embrace, so use that code. Another interesting thing on
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Trump voters is who is sticking with him and who
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: is peeling away. He's got the highest job approval rating
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: among voters over that basically sixty five plus. And where
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: was Donald Trump over the weekend? The villages. So he
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: was talking to people that have not left him. These
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: are the people that have stuck by him, are with
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: him through thick and thin. His biggest collapse as being
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: among voters under fifty. So and you might say, well,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: why is he at the villages? Well, actually, in a
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: midterm election, you better secure the base before you start
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: worrying about swing voters, because the best you can hope
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: for among those voters that have fallen away that are
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: younger is that maybe they won't show up in the midterms,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: but you have you cannot afford to see erosion among
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: those older base voters if you do. That's how Florida
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: becomes a swing stack in particular. But that's a problem
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: across the board. But the point is is he's got
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: he's his coalition. The swing voters that he won over
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: are gone. The question is are they going to go
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: to the Democrats or are they going to stay home?
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: And that, to me is an open question. But there
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: was something else in this poll that made me think
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: here that people that maybe there's too much emphasis on
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: love for Trump among his base, and how much does
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: his base love Trump just period? And how much does
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: his base love Trump as an antagonist to the left?
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: What do I mean by this? So Peugh asked an
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: interesting question about whether it was acceptable to name government
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: buildings after Trump while he's in office. Only one in
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: ten Americans thought it was a good idea. The majority
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: of Republicans thought it a bad idea. There was a
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: little more openness among Republicans to naming stuff after Trump
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: after he left office, but even that you had a
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: majority that didn't like it. So, look, this is just
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: a thesis, and this is something that I kind of
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: want to work a little bit more on. But I've
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: always subscribed. Certainly, we knew this in twenty sixteen. I've
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: always subscribed. There's a there's an obsession frankly right now,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: and I think it's I think now this is something
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: that animates the basis of both parties, which is going
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: after the other side in some ways is more privately
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: owning the Libs right, make you know, drinking liberal tears?
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: Right that the thing that Donald Trump animated the most
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: among some Republicans was that, and that, you know, So,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: I think the same people who love that Trump antagonizes.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: The left also secretly are embarrassed enough about him. They're like,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: who whah, you don't want his name on it. This
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: is not going to be somebody we want to remember
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: fondly going forward. But there are these voters that do
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: like him as a vehicle to essentially torture the left
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: and to make the left cry. I think there's something
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's a majority of this coalitionue, but
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: the fact that you see these if Trump is as
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: beloved as he sometimes portrayed in some lazier media profiles
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: of his voters, right, they go to the people, you know,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: the diehards that go to every rally and all this stuff,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: and I think it paints I think it paints a
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: picture of oh, the Trump based loves him the individual,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: versus just the Trump base. Actually, what really they like
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: about him is that he sticks a finger in the
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: eye of the left. And they were what you had
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: a group of Republicans and I hear from them quite
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: a bit in the pre Trump days who just feel
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: felt like they would always get run over and bold thozed,
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: and so this idea of standing up to the sort
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: of call it the structural left, if you will, whatever
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: that means to them. To some it meant the media
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: industrial complex, which is a little more complicated than just
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: assuming you know it is. You know, if you think,
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: if you think the truth has a liberal bias, you know,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: then I guess you could say it's part of that
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: industrial complex. But I but I understand, right, this is
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: this is decades of grievances that Roger Ale's through various
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: media entities over the years, sort of fed that grievance
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: and perception. So you know, Donald Trump was this sort
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: of warrior against this structural left, whether it was academia,
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: and they just love that He goes after these Ivy
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: League institutions, tries to, you know, make them suffer in
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: some ways, even though of course making them suffer makes
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: us all suffer. And it's sort of I think it is,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: sadly a defining characteristic A little bit of this, of
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: this support for Kennedy and his vaccine in his campaign
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: against vaccines. Well, the left doesn't like it, Academia doesn't
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: like it, the elites don't like it. So I'll go
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: along with it, right, I'll be more supportive of it
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: than secretly I should. Oh, By the way, though, now
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: that I see in measles outbreak, I'm going to go
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: make sure my kids are vaccinated. So there's I looked
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: at that number and it was just you thought, well,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: if Trump is beloved, as we all collectively characterize his base,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: then why is there only one in ten Americans excited
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: about him naming stuff after himself? Right? Anyway, it's a
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: little bit of it's a thesis. The whole point of
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: thesis is to test to see if the premise is
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: what we think it is. I think there are some
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: ways to devise a questionnaire sort of understanding the appeal
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: of Trump, right, how much of the appeal of Trump
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: is Trump himself and his character, and how much of
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: a peal of trump an his diehard supporters is the
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: simple fact that he's He's the guy that'll throw a
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: punch that they'd like to throw, but they're basically too
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: polite to do it. I think there's something there, another
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: thing that's eroding. And again, this stuff starts to erode
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: when the overall comp when you start to question the
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: overall competency of this president, Republicans believe it or not,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: when this, according to Pew, when it started, they expected
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: ethics and government to improve under Trump, and now far
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: few are saying that that's happened. This is again unmet
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: expectations of his own voters. His own voters thought it
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: was going to improve. It has now dropped twenty points
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: on expectations that government ethics is going to improve. So
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: what you're seeing right is the same thing we've seen
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: with some maga avatars right there isn't It isn't just erosion.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: It's a slow loss of belief in the entire Trump
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: movement himself from the people who wanted to believe it most.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: So suddenly Marjorie Taylor Green and Tucker Carlson, then their
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: breaks from Trump don't seem like outliers when you actually
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: dig into the numbers here, it starts to you know, Now,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: you may say Tucker Carlson's doing this in order to
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: keep an audience. He may very well be. But the
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: point is there's an audience out there that he's essentially
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: agreeing with Tucker that are Trump's supporters who have lost
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: faith in Trump. Now you might think, Okay, if things
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: are this bad for Trump, the alternative must be benefiting
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: by a lot. Not so much. Both parties have almost
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: identical fave unfavoratings, basically forty percent favorable, sixty percent unfavorable.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: There's like a one point difference. I think one's fifty nine,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: one's sixty. But the point is this is margin Verer's stuff.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: They're both at forty sixty, both upside down by twenty
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: points identical. Right, the Democratic brand has not improved at all. Now,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Democratic approval has improved among Democrats, but it is not
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: improved at all among independents or the swing voter set.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: And if you're wondering, what will admit if the Democrats
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: sweep Congress when both the House and the Senate, which
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: right now I think they're heavily favored to win the House,
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: I think right I would make them a coin flip
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: with the Senate, maybe with Republicans still with a slight
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: advantage of holding the Senate. It's this question of whether
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: you want so it is interesting Pugh asked Republicans and
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Democrats separately, what did they want out of their leaders?
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: What's interesting when Pew asked each party the following question, basically,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: do you want your leaders pushing harder for? Among Republicans,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: for Trump's policies regardless of whether Democratic officials agree, or
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: do you think do you want do you want Republicans,
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: do you want Republican leaders in Congress or the president
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: to find more common ground with Democratic elected officials. And
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: then among Democrats, the question was worded, do you want
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: to see Democratic leadership push hard against Trump's policies when
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: they disagree, or do you think they should find some
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: common ground with Trump? And these numbers are just astonishing
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: because it's actually Democrats are even more emphatic about not
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: working with Trump than Republicans are about Trump working with Democrats.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: By the way, neither party, a majority of both parties
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: do not want their leadership to essentially work across the aisle. Translation,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: polarization is here, it ain't going anywhere in the near future. Right,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Forty six percent of Republicans want Trump to find common
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: ground with Democratic elected officials. Sixty one percent of republic
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: bookings agree with the statement that they want Trump to
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: push hard for his policies regardless of whether any Democrats agree,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: And then among Democratic voters, it's about forty two percent
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: who say Democratic elected officials should find common ground with Trump,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: and a whopping eighty one percent of Democrats who believe
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Democratic officials should push hard against Trump policies even when
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: they disagree. So what do you think this is setting
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: up Democrats win control of Congress? You think these two
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: sides are going to get anything done. The fact is
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: neither side has an incentive to work with the other
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: because the base of both parties says, I don't want
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: you working with the other side. Now, what I think
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: is likely is the Republican number working with the other
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: side will probably go up a little bit if Democrats
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: control Congress completely, because they will want Democrats to compromise
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: with them. And this is sort of a pattern that
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: you see. But this is the campaign mindset right now,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: and Democrats are super fired up and they're not interested
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: in working with Trump on anything. And I don't know
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: if this is good politics or not. I'll just be
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: honest with you. I don't know if it's going to
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: be good for twenty eight or not. Maybe this is
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: how you win an election with fifty percent plus one,
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: and maybe this is how you maximize base turnout. But
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: can you govern this way? We've seen partisan governing fails, right,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: It doesn't ever work in the long term. You may
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: get some short term wins, but you cannot sustain that
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: governance for very long. And there's so much other part
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: of the government that you actually need bipartisan buying on that.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: If you burn that bridge while shoving your unpopular agenda
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: on the other side, you risk you risk a big
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: backlash on that front. But the fact is, those numbers
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: tell me it doesn't matter. Well if you think, you know,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Congress has been the least productive Congress we've had, and
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: this of the same party as the present how productive
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: is Congress going to be when we're on opposite side. So, look,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: this is why we're stuck. We want to sometimes blame
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: the system. Now, the system, it's incentive structures basically incentivize
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: the bases of the party and punish those in the middle. Right,
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: swing voters decide elections, and swing voters have no say
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: in actual governing right, as we've seen here, because the
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: bases are what animate everything. The bases are what keep
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: elected officials safe in primaries. And so you can just
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: see what's broken is the incentive structures. But the system,
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: in some ways it's doing it exactly. It's behaving right now.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: The way the voter incentives are aligned and the way
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: the voters are asking them to do it. Voters right
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: now are rewarding confrontation. That's what they want. And this
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: goes back to you know, I did a little bit
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: of a couple of conservative media shows over the weekend,
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: and both were basically pushing back on my premise that, yes,
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: it is the rhetoric is worse right now on the
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: left than it is on the right when it comes
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: to political violence and attacks on Trump. But the fact
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: is Trump created this environment, right, Trump is in charge
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: of the thermostat for America on this and in some ways,
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: you know this, he embraced pugilistic politics, this confrontational politics. Democrats,
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: with Barack Obama and Bill Clinton had embraced a different
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: style of politics, very much more trying to trying to
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: this pragmatic whatever you want to call it, but always
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: because part of it, I've always told you before, there's
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: a numbers problem that the left has, Right, They've always
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: needed more moderates in order to win elections than the
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: right does. And now the Democrats are looking a lot
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: less like the compromisers of the Obama era or the
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: Clinton era. And I know some of my ends and
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: the right are going to say Obama wasn't he was
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: very partisan? All right? Ask yourself how partisan was Obama
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: versus how partisan the current Democratic Party is. Okay, get
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: your head out of your talking point A right, anyway,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: I say that with love. Now, I know some of
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: you that listen are actually running for office this cycle.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: So what would you take away? So which the Post
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: asked the following question, which political party do you trust
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: to do a better job handling each of the following? Okay,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: and here's what was interesting about it. The issues were
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: asked were healthcare, education, cost of living iran Ai, inflation,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: reducing corruption in government, the economy overall, taxes overall, immigration overall,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: and crime overall. Here's the big takeaway. The Democrats only
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: had a double digit lead on one issue and the
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Republicans only had a double digit lead on one issue.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: For the Democrats it was healthcare and for the Republicans
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: it was crime. So you're a candidate for office, those
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: are your two whichever side of the Aylle you're on,
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: right either, you know there is a you are. Whatever
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: you say on healthcare, you're going to be believed if
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: you're a Democrat. Whatever you say on law and order
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: stuff you're more likely to be believed if you're a Republican.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: Every other issue, though, is pretty up for grabs. In fact,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: right on education in schools, Democrats are up eight points.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: On cost of living, Democrats are up five points. But
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: there was a neither party column that was provided and
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: neither and the Democrats had the same number at thirty
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: three percent. So you could argue that a third of
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: the country doesn't believe either party knows how to handle
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: the cost of living issues, just as something I would
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: take away if I were a candidate running for office.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: On the situation run it's basically Dems plus two, But
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: twenty nine percent say neither party on AI. This was amazing.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: Nineteen said Democrats, eighteen said Republicans, Fifty one percent said
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: neither party. So AI is an open that's an open
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: field on an issue as a candidate that you could
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: talk about and actually shape the electorate in there. They're
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: looking for guidance right now. They don't think either party
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: knows what it's doing there. On inflation, it was basically
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: a debt even thirty one to thirty, but more people
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: said neither party at thirty three percent than either the
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Democrats or the Republicans on reducing corruption and government, forty
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: four percent said neither party. Again, bigger than it's just
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: twenty six twenty six for either party. This means a
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: plurality of the country thinks both parties are corrupt and
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: neither one of them knows how to reduce corruption. So
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: I look at this issue numbers and go look at
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: it yourself. If you're running for office as a whether
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: you're running for office a Democrat or Republican or independent,
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: you've got to run against Washington and you've got to
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: run against both parties if you want to actually win
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: over credible swing voters. Here this is the It shows
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: me that a plurality of the country doesn't have confidence
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: in either party, sort of has some base line, you know,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: thinks that Democrats at the end of the day care
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: about healthcare more than Republicans do, and that Republicans at
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: the end of the day care more about law and
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: order issues than Democrats do. Beyond those two sort of
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: built in stereotypes of both parties, everything else is up
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: for grabs. And in fact, if I were running for
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: office here number one, I'd look at this and I
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: would hope I'm not an incumbent. I think if I'm
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: an incumbent, this is very hard to defend and very
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: hard to run in. If I were an independent, this
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: would be a gold mine of opportunity. Again, it's opportunity,
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: but that was a huge takeaway that I had in here.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: There is an opportunity to sort of change the paradigm
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: on political conversation, on issue conversation. It's going to take
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: charismatic candidates to do that, so we shall see. This
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Soul.
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  Speaker 1: I too, am a customer. SO. A few other notes
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: from this poll. Massive enthusiasm gap in favor of the
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Democrats seventy three percent in the post survey said Democrats
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: said they are certain to vote. It was in the
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: low fifties for Republicans. That's how waves happen. Waves don't
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: happen because a huge number of independent swing from one
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: part of the other. That matters a little bit. The
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: waves happen when one party is demoralized and Democrats. A
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: majority of Democrats believe this is one of the most
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: important midterms in their lifetime, more than fifty percent said that.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: Just thirty to forty percent of Republicans believe the same thing.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: So Democrats believe the stakes are higher than Republicans do. Right,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: That's exactly the opposite of what we saw in twenty
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: sixteen presidential where the Republicans thought the stakes of the
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: election were higher than the Democrats. When you have that
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: in a midterm election, that's how waves happen. By the way,
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, the numbers were almost identical uncertainty
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: to vote and on how important the election was. So look,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: when you look at this overall chart here, you realize
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: that this is a essentially a political disaster in the
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: making for the Republicans. The question is what can be
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: mitigated between now and election day. The biggest thing Trump's
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: got to deal with is Iran, and this is where
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: the bad polling will now put constraints on perhaps what
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: he'd like to do versus what he's going to end
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: up doing. Right, Iran is deeply underwater. This is depending
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: on which measurement scores you see. It is now more
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: on it is as unpopular as the Vietnam War was
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: at its most unpopular time, and the Iraq War was
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: at its most popular time. So now we have a
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: situation where the president has announced it somehow claims that
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: a military blockade of the of the straight of Horn
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: moves is not is doesn't count on the sixty day
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: clock on the on the War Powers Act. It's laughable constitutionally,
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: but it's only laughable if Congress actually stands up to
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: him on this and says you're wrong about this. The
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: clock is still ticking. The clock didn't pause when the
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: ceasefire started because you did a military blockade. If you're
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: doing a blockade, that is active military action, that is
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: not passive military action. So you know, this is like
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: a bad Star Wars day. So I can use this.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: This is like a bad attempt at a Jedi mind
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: trick by Haig's Seth and Trump here. It just doesn't work.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: And the only way it works is if you have
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: a week speaker and you have a spineless legislative branch.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Because it is crystal clear, very you know, the Trump
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: administration would be better off making the case that the
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: War Powers Act is unconstitutional and a restraint that you
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: know which other which many people believe that that that
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: have served on the council side of things in the
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: executive branch. It's not a new argument to be made.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: I'd have more respect if they made that argument than
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: since they're accepting the premise of the sixty day clock,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: this idea that it somehow starts and stops depending on
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: how hot the hostilities are. But mind you, if you're
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: doing a blockade, that's an active military operation. That is
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: not a it is not somehow some sort of ceasefire.
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: But look at those A RAND numbers and ask you, right,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: supposedly the president is considering escalation. Okay, if you're going
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: to escalate, you better be able to answer one question,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: what can you do now militarily that you couldn't do
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: before that actually changes the outcome of the situation that
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: you're in. Are they going to kill more leaders? And
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: somehow hope there's going to be a new set of
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: leaders that come in. Honestly, the only way you're going
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: to be able to do this is to commit a
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: lot more assets. And what do I mean by that
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: ground troops. Well, if you do that, or whatever you
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: do militarily, you're going to be extending the political pain.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: You're going to extend the economic pain, which extends the
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: political pain. And that's just look at these are the
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: worst poll numbers he has had. Heartstop. These are now
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: hitting the same lows that George W. Bush hit at
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: the low points in two thousand and eight, two thousand
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: and seven, when the economies you know, at that point
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: it was like a rack economy, and it was just
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: pighing on him. Okay, it is. We're looking at George W.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Bush levels, maybe Richard Nixon levels these and he wants
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: to try to escalate again. If you're going to escalate,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: you better you better have a plan to just finish
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: this off. And I don't think that's there. And that's why.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: And by the way, never mind that we're now learning
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: that our American military assets in the region were damaged
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: in far greater numbers then the Pentagon has admitted, which
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: means we have a lot more to risk if we
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: decide to flip on, flip the switch and attack them
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: again again. If you're going to do it, you can't
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: just airstrike your way out of this. You tried that,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: it didn't work. So if you're really going to change
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: the calculus on this, you got And here's the thing,
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: there's just no political support for it, right And what
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: have we always learned about military operations. If you don't
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: have the people, you're not going to succeed. You're and simple.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: So this is why we kind of know where this
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: is headed. The fact is the Iranians have put together
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: a framework that's probably going to be the working framework,
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: which is some sort of negotiated end to the blockades
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: on the Strait and then a framework of a set
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: of negotiations over the nuclear stuff, but that there's going
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: to end up being a two part deal here. And
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: these poll numbers are screaming to this administration that he
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: has to do this. We know Donald Trump has to
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: do this. And how do we know he's probably going
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: to do this Because you're starting to see more and
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: more hardliners on this on the right who have been
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: cheering him on for doing this, and frankly are quietly
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: disappointed that he backed off, who are trying to set
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: some harder guardrails like, well, you better not cut the
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: same deal Obama did, or you better not do this,
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: because secretly everybody knows a deal is coming. And so
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: now you're seeing when you read some of these opinion
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: columns from those that are defending what's been done and saying, hey,
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: you know there's more to be done. They're just trying
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: to shape the ending here, and they're just trying to
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: make sure that the negotiations themselves don't get too weak.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: But there is just there is no political room for
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: him to escalate militarily. The Iranians know this. If he does,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, he is just risking he's risking I don't
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: know what. At this point, he's risking total political collapse.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Right now, He's still got the base of his party
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: with them, okay. And when I say of his party,
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: of the Maga wing of his party, the non Maca
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: Republicans are not with them, but he's still got the
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: Maga Republicans with them. He risks losing some of those
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: if he somehow bulldozes his way into trying to start
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: up the military operation again, do a bunch of damage,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: but make no progress from where we are now. All right, now,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: a few other quick hitters. I know I've gone on
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit long here, but a few other quick
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: hitters of some things that I kind of wanted to
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: just call them little seeds that I wanted to plant,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: and if you've got more questions on them, throw them
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: in the question bucket and we'll talk more. I found
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: the Tucker Carlson interview by my friend Lulu of Courcianovar.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: First of all, she did a tremendous job and it
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: was proof by the way you can do a really
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: smart interview without being a jerk. You know, she went
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: in there, accepted the premise. You know, was I thought
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: curious the entire time, and then when she when he
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: would say something that she had some facts that pushed
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: back on what he said. You know, she didn't attack
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: him for being an idiot or you know, how can
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: you say that are you lying? Now? Are you lying? Then? Right?
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: She just simply said, well, we have this and look,
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: I've seen Tucker be sort of shown the truth before.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: And sometimes you can get defensive, but I feel like
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: her style disarmed him and you got more out of it.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: So anyway, I just anyway, kudos to Lulu for that
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: number one. Number two, what I took away from it
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: is because you know, I've shared this with you before,
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: I'm never quite sure, you know, and I think I've
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: learned more what I've taken in here. Tucker Carlson really
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: is sort of if Pat Buchanan and Roger Ales, you know,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: had a baby, it would be Tucker Carlson because he's
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: got the media savvy of Ales. He understands where this
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: is going, and I think he sees an opportunity to
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: own a piece of a political audience and he's done
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: a pretty good job of it. And he's really sort
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: of marked his territory and markedist turf there. And then
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: when I say you can it is because he's I
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: think it's a true blue American isolationist. Nationalist isolationists is
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: to me sort of one and the same. You're you know,
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: most nationalists are going to be isolationists and most isolationists
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: are going to be nationalists. So that's why to me,
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: it's one of the same, because what did we learn
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: in there? You know, he's uncomfortable with with sort of
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: Rubio's influence on Trump. He was very careful. He didn't
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: seem to want to get fans in trouble. He didn't
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: want to admit the last time he talked to him,
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: which tells me that they have a pretty open line
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: on this. And so you know, that's you know, it's
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: it's in some ways. I didn't learn anything new about
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: what Tucker Carlson believes, but I came away believing he
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: actually believes it more than I thought he did. Right,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: There's always been a part of Tucker and most of
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: us that have known him a long time or think
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: we've known him, And I think that's a fair way
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: of putting it. There's a lot of calcul that's always
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: felt like a lot of calculation involved, But it doesn't
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: take away from uh. I think he understands, you know,
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: how to build a narrative, and I think he understands
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: how to build an audience and how to keep an audience,
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: and how to potentially persuade an audience. And he's just
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: you know, look strikes me as as somebody who is
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: building a movement, whether he ends up running for president
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: or he ends up being the intellectual force behind Jade
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: Vance's candidacy in twenty eight, which maybe where we're headed.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure, but I will say this, I found
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: the interview very compelling, and I read the Sucker word
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: for word all the way to the end. I made
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: a big deal last week about my push that look,
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: if this, uh, this ruling by the Supreme Court of
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: the Voting Rights Act, which essentially is going to eliminate
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: majority minority districts around in the South and perhaps around
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: the country, that the proper that the energy in the
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: and in communities looking for better representation in politics and
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: in Congress ought to be focused on expanding the table
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: rather than fighting over the chairs around the table. And
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: obviously I'm arguing for expanding the House. Okay, uh, this
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: is a necessity. Madison himself argued for it. The only
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: way that people are going to feel represented is if
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: they're actually represented. And the problem is we do have
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: huge chunks of the population that don't feel represented in
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: this Congress. And it's because Congress is too damn small, right,
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: And if you essentially, look, if you doubled the size
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: of Congress, I promise you'd have Republican members Republican Congression
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: members of Congress from Massachusetts, and you have Democratic members
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: of Congress from Alabama more than you have today. And
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: you'd have more in Tennessee than you'd have today, and
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: you'd have more Republicans in Minnesota than you'd have today.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: It is, it is, there is. This is a giant population,
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: and it's a diverse population in America that has not
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: where Congress has not properly expanded. That was the Madisonian
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: argument that the House of Representatives was supposed to expand
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: with the size of the country, and we have not
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: expanded it since nineteen twenty. And you know, look, I
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: think in hindsight that that was among the mistakes in
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: the Voting Rights Act to sixty five, part of the
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: push in which could have been done. I don't know
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: why we didn't expand the House then, and probably could
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: have expanded by one hundred and fifty two hundred members,
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: but it would have done more to jumpstart diverse representation
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: in Congress starting in sixty six, rather than essentially it
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: didn't really kick in very well until eighty two and
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: ninety two, after the reapportionments of both eighty one and
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: ninety one. Now what's going to be the fallout from this.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: There's going to be some angry constituency groups, particularly in
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: the South, and I would keep there are five races
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: states I'd keep. I'd be focused on here where you
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: could see anger over sort of de representation of African
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: Americans in the South could backlash on Republicans and help
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: Democrats win statewide races. Now part of it. Democrats have
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: to invest in this. But this is where if they
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: wanted to make Republicans pay a price, if they believe
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: Republicans have pushed this too far, you have to make
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: them pay a price at the polls if you want
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: them to you know, right, it's all about incentive, So
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: go win something. Right, Georgia governor, it's likely Democrats can
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: have an African American nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. I think Look,
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: do I think African American turnout was going to be
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: pretty high in Georgia anyway? Yes, if you get it higher,
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: that's how she becomes governor. Mississippi African American Senate nominee
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: Scott colomb or colombe. My apologies if Democrats engage African
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: Americans in Mississippi at levels like they have engaged African
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: Americans in Georgia. They can win some state wide elections
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: in Mississippi, but there's always been a bit of a
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: bit of a struggle, particularly in rural African American communities
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: in the South where Democrats have struggled. You know, Democrats
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: struggle with the rural vote, whether it's white or black.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: But again, backlash on the on what happened at the
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Supreme Court could be fuel turnout fuel in Mississippi. I
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: think Alabama governor, especially k Ivy, clearly didn't want to
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: do it. Uh somebody got to her ear. She changed
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: her mind to do this in the middle of the
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: of the gubernatorial campaign. This could very much help Doug Jones,
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: who's the likely Democratic nominee for governor against uh the
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: coach Tommy Tupperville. There look Doug Jones one on the
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: back of black women the first time when he won
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: that special Senate election against Roy Moore. Could again, if
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: you just have a slightly lower turnout among Republicans for
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: all the reasons I pointed out at the start that
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: we're seeing in all this polling, and you get a
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: surge and you get a higher than usual mid term turnout,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: among African Americans. That's how Democrats pull upsets in governors races.
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: There's likely to be an Africa We'll see. There's a
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: very competitive primary for governor in Florida on the Democratic
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: side between the African American mayor of Orange County, Jerry Demings,
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: and a former Republican Member of Congress net turned Democrat,
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: David Jolly. You know, if Demings gets that nomination, and
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: in fact, this may be a huge jumpstart to him.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: This may jump, this may surge, This may again service
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: turnout fuel for him. Because a lot of polling has
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: shown Jolly ahead. That could change due to backlash from
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: what the Supreme Court did and for the immediate decision
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: by Florida to redistrict in there so, and I'd keep
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: a eye in South Carolina expec again, any of these
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: states that choose to do this. Now you're just sort
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: of putting a neon turnout sign on for African American
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: voters in the South, and they have enough strong candidates
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: Democrats do in Mississippi, Senate, in Georgia, in South Carolina.
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: These are not gadflies. They may be they may pee
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: long shots, but there's a difference between a long shot
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: and a gadfly. Their long shots have money and organization.
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: Godflies usually don't have those two things. They got some
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: serious candidates that if essentially, you know, it's like two
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: and ten chance, but essentially Republicans are doing things here
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: that suddenly make the two in ten chance more possible
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: than not. So please keep an eye on that. And finally,
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: I've been hearing a lot of crankiness among congressional Republicans
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: that the Trump political operation is more focused on punishing Republicans.
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: See Thomas Massey in Kentucky, see the Indiana state Senate primaries,
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: where they targeted seven of eight state Senate Republican incumbents
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: that were running for reelection this year. And many of
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: these Republicans in Congress, they won't put their name on
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: it because we know they're not ready to actually publicly
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: call Trump out, but they will anonymously call Trump out.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: They'll spend all this money to punish Thomas Massey, to
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: punish Republicans in Indiana over redistricting. But they didn't spend
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: money in Virginia, they didn't spend money in California. You
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: see where this is going. So if Donald Trump fails,
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: this Tuesday in Indiana, and he only say knocks off
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: two or three of the incumbents, right, I think if
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: he wins a majority, you have to say, Okay, I
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: guess this was money well spent. I guess I don't
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: even know if it really is. But he better win
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: a majority of the ones he targeted. And if he doesn't,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: then then it's it's even worse. And finally, I want
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: to close my other little of a fun, little uh
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: sort of switcheroo that we're seeing in Maine Senate. So
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: when I last was with EU, Janet Mills was still
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: a candidate for the US Senate in Maine. Now we
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: know it's Graham Platner. It's going to be the presumptive
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: Democratic nominee with against Susan College. It has been interesting
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: to watch Democrats uncomfortable with Platner try to come around
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: on him and start to rationalize why they're going to
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: come around on him. And I don't know about you,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: but I'm having flashbacks of Republicans rationalizing their way to
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump back in twenty sixteen. And boy, if there
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: ever was a mirror image race Clinton, Trump, Platner, Collins
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: one is status quo of somebody that went back to
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: the nineties, Hillary Clinton, Susan Collins. And the other is
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: somebody with a call it a unique background, had said
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: inappropriate things at a variety of ways and in a
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: variety of times. But does it look like a cookie
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: cutter politician? Which one are you betting on? Number one?
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: But that's how I look at this main center race.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: I think Platner would be more of a problematic nominee
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: if it were an open seat, because then they'd have
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: a better chance. Republicans would have making it potentially a
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: referendum on him. I think that's what helped Fetterman defeat
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: doctor Oz. Right, had it been a sitting incumbent, then
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: maybe Fetterman would have been more of the of the
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: referendum that Republicans were trying to make them at the time.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: But instead doctor Oz was the odd ball candidate as
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: far as the electorate was concerned, and Democrats successfully made
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: it a referendum on him. It is it is when
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: you're in when the incumbent, it's hard to not become
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: the referendum, especially if you're the party IMpower, And in
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: this case, I think that is that's what that's what
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: hurt Hillary Clinton in sixteen. She at the end of
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: the day, was representing the party in power. And that's
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: what's going to hurt Susan Collins in twenty twenty six
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: because she's representing the party in power. Where are we
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: going back? Oh, we're going to May sixth, nineteen thirty seven,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: just before America's involvement in World War Two. It's the
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: day the sky caught fire. So there was a time
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: when crossing the Atlantic didn't mean getting on a plane.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: It meant boarding something enormous, something elegant, and something that
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: floated an airship. It was a flying hotel in the sky.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: The ship arriving in New Jersey on May sixth teen
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: thirty seven was about eighty feet shorter than the Titanic.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: By the way, that's how big this thing is. Okay,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: you know how large and Titanic. Queen Mary's still around,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: so you have an idea of that, right, That's the
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: ambition of thing in that afternoon, because it still was
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: pretty unusual thing to see one of these things land.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: There were people gathered to just simply watch it arrive.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: Obviously people there to pick up people, but just people
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: wanted to watch the spectacle of this giant floating airship
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: get sort of pulled down to the ground. Right For
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: many Americans there in New Jersey, they thought they were
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: watching the future, and within minutes they thought they were
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: watching the end of days. The airship was the eh
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: the led Zeppelin one nine, the Hindenburg, more than eight
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: hundred feet long, cabins, dining rooms, observation decks. If you
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: want to get a slight picture in your head, Indiana
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: Jones and the Holy Grail, there's that Muns where Sean
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: Connery and Harrison Ford are on a zeppelin there, so
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: you can put that picture in your head. Remember how
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: beautiful it was, the dining room, the observation deck, and
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: a trip from Germany to New Jersey took about two
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: and a half days. By the way, that was pretty
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: fast for its time, but it was already not the
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: fastest option on the horizon. But the arrivals they always
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: drew crowds, not because they were rare, but because they
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: were remarkable. It was still one of the largest machines
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: ever built, descending slowly out of the sky like some
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: sort of spaceship. Right now, this wasn't unproven technology for
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: more than thirty years commercial zeppelin travel had built a
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: remarkable record over two thousand flights, more than a million
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: miles travel, tens of thousands of passengers, and not a
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: single passenger injury. But by the mid thirties there weren't
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: many of these ships left. Britain had abandoned them after
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: the crash of the R one oh one, the United
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: States lost the USS Akron and the USS Macon, and
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: by nineteen thirty seven it was no longer a global industry.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: It was largely just Germany that was still doing the
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: Zeppelins through ships like the LZ one two seven Graft
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: Zeppelin and the Hindenburg, that kept this idea alive. And
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: it wasn't just transportation. The tale of the Hindenburg carried
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: the insignia of Nazi Germany swastika's visible in the sky
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: over the United States in nineteen thirty seven, So this
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: just wasn't a passenger ship. It was also a statement.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: So on that day at Lakehurst, New Jersey, crowds are watching,
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: cameras are rolling, there's a radio crew there to record
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: what's supposed to be a routine feature. This was supposed
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: to be the first anniversary of transatlantic passenger service. Well,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: the ship approaches the mooring mast. That's a routine for
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: these airships. It's familiar, it's expected. And then something goes wrong.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: There's a spark, there's a flash, Flames begin to spread,
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: and in thirty four seconds, the entire airship is destroyed.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: It's burning, it's collapsing, it's falling out of the sky.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: And as the fire takes hold, the people watching aren't
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: just seeing a machine fall, they're watching something else, to
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: a symbol. Nazi Germany's most visible symbol in the sky
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: is falling in flames over American soil. And then there's
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: a voice. It's a reporter named Herbert Morrison, and he's
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: there to record the celebration of this first anniversary. Instead
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: he's narrating a disaster. And then his voice breaks and
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: one of the most famous lines ever uttered in mass media.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: Oh the humanity now. Morrison would later say he shouted
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: that because he believed everybody on board had died, but
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: actually they hadn't. Of the ninety seven people on board
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: sixty two survived, believe it or not, thirty five passengers
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: and crew were killed, along with one ground crew member,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: thirty six in total, and here's what changed. Morrison actually
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: wasn't broadcasting live. The recording was flown to New York
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: and then aired the very next day, but as if
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: it was live to tape, so when people heard it,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: it felt live. It was this first experiential media moment,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: if you will. It was raw, it was unfiltered. So
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: this was the first time a recorded, unfolding disaster was
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: presented to the public as breaking news. If you ever
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: wondered when did the news first break May sixth, nineteen
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: thirty seven, people didn't just learn about the Hindenberg. They
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: experienced it, and they experienced it together. At the time,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: there were questions about why this happened. Was it an accident,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: was it a structural failure? Was it sabotage? Well, the
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: official Commerce Department finding pointed to static electricity that they
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: thought ignited a hydrogen leak, but the sabotage theory never
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: fully died, And in the end that question almost doesn't
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: matter because even if it was sabotage, it wouldn't have
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: saved the industry right because the ship was using a
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: hydrogen which was very flammable. Helium was much safer. But
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: in the thirties, the United States controlled most of the
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: world's helium supply, and guess what we had refused to
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: export it to Nazi Germany. That said, even with helium,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: airships were still slow, expensive, crew intensive, vulnerable to weather,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: and airplanes were just improving rapidly. Helium might have made
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: the airship safer, but it wasn't going to make them competitive.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: So when the timing was really bad for this industry,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: when the Hindenburg burns, it didn't create doubt. It just
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: confirmed it. Right, there was already questions about this and
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: when you and this is something that happens when the
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: public sees it happen in real time too, when they
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: see it all at once, the flames to collapse, the voice.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: You know, the Hindenburg just didn't fail technically, it failed publicly,
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: right at a moment when the public had somewhere else
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: to go airplanes. So technologies don't die just because they break.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: They die when the fear feels universal, the flaw feels fundamental,
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: and the alternative is ready to go. And that's why
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: the airship era didn't die because it had been unsafe
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: for decades. It worked, it was safe, it was reliable.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: It died because for thirty four seconds in front of
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: the world. It looked unsafe, and once people see something
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: that way together, they don't forget it. Because a part
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: of me wonders, how come we haven't tried to do
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: this more? Would people pay stupid? You know, we think
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: about faster ways to get across the Atlantic. We know
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: how much people love just sitting on a cruise ship.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: It is mildly surprising one of these irrationally rich people
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: haven't tried to bring back the floating Zeppelins. Who knows,
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: maybe after hearing this, I'll have inspired some bored silicon
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: billionaire to do just that. So with that, there's your
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: lesson this week, Ask Chuck. All right, it's Ask Chuck time.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: First question comes from John Guyersville, California, and he writes
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: about the last episode or it was about my Wednesday,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: the Wednesday podcast, and he says, today you went from
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: normalization of Trump's many horrendous deeds to the indictment of
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: Komi a political enemy, to saying it would be atrocious
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: if the first thing a democratic Congress did was to
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: a be Are you really going to say that in
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: the pile of deeds he's done since being elected? Which
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: as you point out, are so many, they're quickly forgotten
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: that there's nothing impeachable. Just take today's isn't asking the
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: DOJ to charge a political enemy and abuse of power?
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: How about impeding the freedom of the press. I think
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: you've fallen into the normalization trap yourself. I'm not a
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: knee jerk Trump hater. I can point to several things
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: he's done which have some benefits. But surely there have
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: been no president with more impeachable in the history of
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: the Republic. So yes, I think there are plenty of
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: impeachable offenses. But one of the things that we forget
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: about impeachment is, you know, one of my favorite you know,
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: there's a line in law school that says, it's something
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: about you know, I think it's something to happen to
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: do with you know, can you sue for this? And
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: the answer is the point is is that you can
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: file suit on anything. Right, Well, impeachment is sort of
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: one of those things. What's an impeachable offense? Whatever majority
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: in the House of Representatives thinks it is. Right. So,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: now you've pointed out things that I think we collectively,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: if we did a poll of American citizens and I
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: almost wonder if we should do this right, and whatever
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: gets sixty five percent or more should be seen as
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: something that maybe you write the articles, because the founders
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: did figure out that you cannot throw somebody out of
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: office unless it's two thirds, and the whole point of
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: the two thirds is to make sure you had at
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: least half somewhere between a third and a half of
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: the other party, or is of the supporters of the
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: person you're impeaching, on board with this. And that gets
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: me back because I understand what you're saying. You're saying
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: on one hand, I was contradicting myself. I'm pointing out
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: all these different ways what's wrong. That's saying the biggest
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: mistake democrats we've made would be start with impeachment. This
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: getting power simply to punish those that were in power
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: before you is a Again, it's part of the race
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: to the bottom. The second thing is he's already if
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: he had never been impeached, I think this would be
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: a more substantive argument and a worthy debate. But he's
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: been impeached twice and they and failed to be convicted twice.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: The voters threw him out once and every time the
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: voters have had a chance to respond to his presidency.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: They have voted the other way twenty eighteen, midterms, twenty twenty,
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: and we're about to find out in twenty twenty six. Right,
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: he has only succeeded when he has been the challenger,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: when he has been out of office, and he's been
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: able to run against those that are in office. So
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: keep that in mind. But to go back to the impeachment,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: if Democrats do this as their first you know, you're
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: just setting up this. There's this group. Look, I just
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: went through the entire sort of Democrats are not They're benefiting,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: but they're not benefiting from the growing discontent of voters
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: with this president. Right, his numbers are so bad you
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: would think Democrats should be ten points higher in their
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: favorable rating, or at least ten points greater than the
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: Republican party, and they're not. And it's because there's this
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: loss of faith that that either party is going to
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: somehow try to look out for the greater good. Instead
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: just worry about what's in the best interests of their party,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: not necessarily the country as a whole. And if look,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: if a Republican introduces articles of impeachment, Democrats should support it,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: But to me, I wouldn't pursue impeachment unless Republicans in Congress,
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: you know, some group of Republicans on their own, decided
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: to do it first. Then you just bottom line is
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: it's sort of like the old pal doctrine, which you know,
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: you better have overwhelming, you better be ready to win,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: You better have the votes already if you're going to
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: go down this road, because if you go down and
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: lose again, you probably forever defang the idea of impeachment. Right,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: it would be our fourth straight failed impeachment going back
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: to Bill Clinton, and it would be sort of a
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: mechanism you know, it's I guess it means it would
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: it would go back to being just you know, literally
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: only if he was actually looting the treasury and plain sight,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: would anybody get a two thirds majority in order to
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: throw somebody out. So I understand what you're saying. I'm
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: not saying there are not plenty of ways that you
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: can draw up articles of impeachment against him, but when
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: you've already tried and failed twice, you better have the
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: votes before you pursued again. Appreciate the question, though, and
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: I encourage this push back That's what makes I'm more
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: interested in a in a podcast in a community that
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: has more friendly disagreement than anything else. Next question comes
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: from Ben from Colorado Riding again. He says, he goes,
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on the Adam Hamilton On Adam Hamilton,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: the Methodist pastor announcing his Senate runn Kansas as a Democrat. Yes,
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: a big deal this week. I remember you had mentioned
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: him potentially running as an independent a few months ago,
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: and around that time there was polling that he would
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: have been up two points as an independent, went down
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: eight as a Democrat. Could this be a ballot access
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: two way versus three way, fundraising, general vibe shift, or
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: a combination of factors that led him to make that decision. Thanks,
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: It's a great question. Look, ballot access is one thing.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: If you didn't think Democrats were going to take a knee, right.
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: You know, the gentleman by the name of Greg Ormand
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: came very close to winning a Senate seat as an
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: independent in twenty fourteen against Pat Roberts against the then incumbent
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: Pat Roberts, and Democrats sort of took a knee in
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: that race. They didn't have an active candidate and that
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: allowed for some consolidation. It's an interesting decision by him.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: This is now two pastors that they're going to have
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: as Senate likely Senate nomanies. I say likely because Kansas
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: primary hasn't happened yet, but he will be the heavy favorite.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: It does eliminate the question of whether of who you're
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: going to caucus with and all of that. I saw,
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: as he says, well, traveling the state, more people asked
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: me to run as a Democrat, which might be a
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: little self fulfilling. That people most likely to turn out
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: for events like that are more likely to be active partisans.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: That maybe the silent independent majority that has been a
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: sort of a fulk rum of Kansas politics over the
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 1: last decade or so. But I could argue that the
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: Kansas Democratic brand is probably in better shape than the
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: national Democratic brand. But I'll be curious to see how
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: he presents himself. He I think, called himself an independent Democrat.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: I've seen a few Republicans. I think that's what Lisa
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: Murkowski calls of an independent Republican. I'll be curious to
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: see how much that holds and if that can hold up.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: Look independent has a halo effect, but I am conscious
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: of just how you know you there is impediments to this,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: but we'll see. It's it's a Democrat hasn't won a
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: US Senate race since before fdr In in Kansas. That's that.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: That is a that's one of the longest droughts I
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: think going these days in any state in the Union.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: So that may be why he was, and being the
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: pastor of one of the largest United Methodist churches in
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: the state, he probably thought being independent would be a
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: little more, a little a little easier for his congregation
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: on that front. But I'm fascinated by the candidacy, and
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: I think Roger Marshall's potentially vulnerable. The biggest vulnerability for
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: any Republican in the Plains or the Midwest are these tariffs.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: And the tariffs are wildly unpopular in Kansas and Nebraska,
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: which is why both those incumbent senator Republican senators are
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: in bigger trouble than many people realize. But if you're
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: asking my question, bet, I guess I am. Look. I
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: am very concerned about the hardests and governance that's coming
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: and that we continue to have. I would like to
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: see a bulwark of independence in that Senate that behave
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: as independence that try to sort of figure out a
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: raid to sort of to turn the temperature down. So
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: I'll be curious to see if he does win where
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: he aligns himself. That'll be interesting. Next question comes from
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: Jim Toby Hannah, Pennsylvania, but a big Buffalo Sabers fan. Anyways, Hey,
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: I'm forty five years old, and I have only a
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: recollection and have only a recollection of past presidents being
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: presidents for all and unifiers. Of the forty four presidents
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: before Trump, have any of them been so divisive and
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: how they dictated policy and were so blatantly for their
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: supporters only things. Well, you know, I think Look, FDR
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: was a pretty partisan president, and in fact, if members
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: of his own party didn't go along, he primaried them.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: He recruited people to do that. But you know, it's
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: really about temperament, right. We've never had such a divisive
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: temperament in the oval office. We've had plenty of divisive
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: political leaders who, at least in their public behavior, tried
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: not to behave that way. That's the distinction with Trump
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: that's greater than every other president. He's not the I
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: think I think there are arguments to be made. We've
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: had as partisan of presidents. So it's not about whether
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: you're behaved as a partisan, it's it's how you publicly
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 1: comported yourself and the temperament you used in governing. And
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: in that sense, there's been nobody like him, right, particularly
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: in the media age, right, right, I mean, just look,
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: Nixon wanted wanted to present himself as a leader fire right.
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: Nixon is the one that went down to talk to
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: protesters during the Vietnam War on the mall right, Yeah,
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: you know. So even Nixon, who was considered very divisive,
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: tried didn't want to be Barack Obama. Some of the rights.
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: He's very divisive, but he didn't want to be. Donald
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: Trump wants to be. He doesn't mind it. It's part
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: of his political strength. It is a he really does
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: sort of buy into the divide and conquer mindset a
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: little bit. So I don't want to imply he's the
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: most part of the president we've ever had. It's that
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: he chooses his temperament to be in divisive mistakes. And
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: like I said, you could and there are plenty of
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: people there were view Hey, FDR. He purged his own
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: party of people he thought weren't carrying his agenda out
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: the way he did, just like this president. So the
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: behaviors have been replicated in the past. It's the temperament.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: It's that public temperament that's so different. All right, Next question, Hey,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: Checking Company, thanks for taking the time to read my note.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: What's your take on the expansion of the men's and
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: women's March Badness tournament field? And I thought I gave
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: you this take. I'll do it real fast. I believe
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: multiple conferences were behind the change. But is it as
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: simple as a money grab for expanded coverage? Is it
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: a way around the anticipated bifurcation of programs who into
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: haves and have nots due to nil You can tell
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: where I fall on this. I see our Revolutionaries and
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: similar becoming novelty programs on campuses, yes, or something else
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: day from U Street, DC by way of foggy bottom,
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: go clo, I mean revs originally of North Chicago. And
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: you're right, folks from Chicago, never give it up? All
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: fair and thank you for that. Look. Yes, I know
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: the mid majors were behind this push, and I think
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: this was and I but mid majors wanted is ninety six.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: Seventy six makes the Power four and a half conferences happy.
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: And yes, I say four and a half because I
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: think the Big East is half of a power conference,
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: but the bottom half not so much. And it will
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: be the Power four and a half conferences that benefit
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: the most, right I would like to see. But look,
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: I did a whole percentage thing on this, and believe
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: it or not, when the NCAA expanded the field of
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: sixty four in nineteen eighty five, twenty three percent of
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: all Division one schools were then going to make the
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 1: postseason expanding it to seventy six. Now, because we have
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: a lot more schools in Division one basketball than we did,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: we have over three hundred and fifty now we used
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: to have under three hundred back in the eighties. Believe
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: it or not, Fewer only twenty one percent now of
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: all of all Division one programs will qualify for the
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: NCAA Tournament at seventy six. So I think you could
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: argue it should be even higher that it should be,
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: that it should be ninety six, and you would just
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: have all it would do was just fill up that
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: Tuesday and Wednesday to be instead of two days of
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: sixteen games each on Thursday and Friday. You'd have four
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: days of sixteen games each Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, one
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: of the best two days of the NCUBAA tournament Thursday
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: and Friday. What's wrong with more cow bell Tuesday and Wednesday.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: I think we'd love it, and it would actually help
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 1: the high mid majors at seventy six, it doesn't. I'd
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: like to see a few things. You know, everything is
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: metric obsessed, but if you don't have a winning record,
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: you shouldn't be allowed in the NCAA tournament. That should
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: be because we don't want lose anybody five hundred or
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 1: worse getting into the NCAA tournament. I don't want to
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: see a seventeen and seventeen Auburn team, seventeen and eighteen
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: Duke team just because they have a lot more Quad
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: one games than everybody else. They ought to put in
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: at least that metric. You know, some qualifier you have
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: to have eighteen overall wins or I just you have
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: to be over five hundred. I just you know, if
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: they expand this tournament and all it does is let
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: some under five hundred garbage power forward team get in
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: over a twenty six win. You know, Belmont, you know
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: that's You're just it's not the point of the tournament,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 1: and it doesn't help the nc DOUABLEA. It's not good competition.
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: It's just not good. If you weren't good in your
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 1: own conference and you were terrible and you have a
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: losing record, you shouldn't be in the NCUBLEA tournament. So
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: I really hope that they don't that that's where this
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: So I was pro expansion, but I'm pro to ninety six.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: I think the numbers dictate it. Yes, I think it
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: would actually help financially across the board. Now, I think
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: they expanded to essentially to try to get ahead of
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: Congress forcing expansion or try to get ahead of potential
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: lawsuits from the nonpower majors conferences. So I think that's
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: where this came from. But I don't think they expanded enough.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: And I know almost everybody else who loves college, Oh
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: this is a waste. Please do you like the first
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: two days in the NCAA tournament. You're telling me you're
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: not gonna like two more days? Just like it? All right,
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: last question and then I'll finish up my little sports
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: cast for the week. This one comes from Stephen Vernon Hills,
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: Illinois says, how much effect do you think the Forward
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: Party can have in twenty six and twenty eight? You
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: keep applying a third choices needed to fix our current situation.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: I've signed up for their emails. They have gotten my attention.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: Thanks Steve and Vernon Hills, Illinois. Well, I think, look,
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: a lot depends on some wins, right. A few independents
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: truly need to break through, not just come close, breakthrough.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: And I can tell you some candidacies that I think
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: give Forward some opportunity include Kevin Kylie in California, former
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: Republican now turned independent running as an independent now for
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: his congressional seat. A win there that would be send
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: quite a message. Mike Duggan in Michigan running as an
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 1: independent for governor. There, you got Dan Osborne. You in Nebraska.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: You may say he's Democrat hiding in independent clothing. Seth
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: Bodner who's running as an independent in Montana. To make
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: the choice that you want to be an independent first
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: before a partisan. That in itself, and you know, look,
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: what the Forward Party is pushing for is just simply
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: elected officials who don't just salute party leadership. That's the problem,
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: you know, and it's a look, what they're trying to
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: do is they're recruiting people that are filed as Democrats
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 1: or as Republicans who pledged to be a Forward candidate
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: because they pledged they're not going to just salute partisan leadership,
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: that they're going to work across a cross partisan you know,
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: they're going to you know, support cross partisan legislation that
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 1: they're going to open up that they're supportive of all
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: voter primaries instead of partisan primaries. And if you want
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: to be a Democrat supporting all partisan primaries or Republicans
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: supporting all party primaries, the Forward Party is going to
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 1: be open to support on that. So they're just what
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: the Forward Party is trying to do is represent that
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: slice of voters that have that have been forced to
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: hold their nose and pick between two parties they don't like,
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: and instead have some sort of of voice in the
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: governing itself. Right now, swing voters decide who's in charge
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: and then have no say over what's being implemented. Literally,
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: Republicans wouldn't have a majority without these swing voters, and
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: Democrats wouldn't have had the majority of the last time
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: without these swing voters, and yet they're literally their point
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 1: of view is thrown away, tossed aside for the partisan basis.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: And again most of that is due to the incentive
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: structures of voting in primary politics. So look, I go
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: look at you know, go back to my opening monologue
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: on these polls. The ingredients are there, the opportunity is there.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: What Forward needs is charismatic candidates to make the case
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: that being an independent doesn't mean you're a mush, that
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 1: being an independent doesn't mean you just want some compromised
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: version of left and right all the time. What independent
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: means is that you're trying to expand access to governing
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 1: decisions for all voters. Right now, it is the hard
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: partisans that have more access to governing than those of
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: us sitting in between the thirty five yard lines. They
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: are there there. They're cared about a lot during campaign,
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: and I can tell you I can progressives and conservatives
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: complain all the time that the campaign's worry too much
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 1: about those voters. Yeah, except when they get into office,
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: they never worry about those voters. At some point, those
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: voters have to say enough is enough now, They now
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: those voters might say, I've had been given a choice. Well,
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: we'll see. We're going to keep an eye on what
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: happening in Kansas, and we'll see what those voters think
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: in Nebraska. We'll see what those voters think in Montana.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: But I think you clearly see when both parties have
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: decided that it's more important that they fight the other
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: side then figure out how to come to some sort
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 1: of common ground when common ground is possible, I think
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: that's what gives the opening to the Forward Party to
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: have a potential say here, Look, it ain't easy, it's fledgling.
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: All of that is true, But when you look, it's
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: pretty clear to me. You know. Yeah, like I said,
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: you know, if you went into a store that sold
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: T shirts and I told you all they sold was
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: extra small and extra large, you'd be like, how come
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: they don't have anything for me? That's kind of the
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: way the doopoly is working right now. That's the opportunity.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: It's Look, it's not easy to shape a platform that's
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: essentially about about incentive structures, about sort of government. You know,
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: all I would argue Forward believes and is trying to
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: go back to first principles of the constitutional democracy, republic,
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: excuse me, the constitutional republic that the founders were trying
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: to create. And what many Forward supporters will argue is
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: that the current you know, what the system was designed
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: to be, has been essentially perverted by the two major parties,
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: where suddenly there's a whole bunch of people being left
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: out of decision making and of governing. I think this
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: is part of why we got to expand the size
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: of the house. I think this is certainly true among
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: minorities in this country who are now going to feel
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: even more left out of governing. And again, swing voters
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: may be a minority of the electorate compared to the
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: size of the two bases of both parties, but in
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: some ways they're also being left out at the table
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: and not given a seat at the table. So we
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 1: shall see, all right, a few quick weekend sports since
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: I was when you're dealing with the kidney stone, you
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: do a lot of pacing, you know, you do a
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: lot of you know, you just have to move all
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 1: the time. It's like this incredible pain and you just
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: feel like moving at least can distract you from the pain.
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 1: So I certainly watched a bunch of plenty of NBA basketball.
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know whether this is an easy bet to
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: go fine, but it is pretty clear if the West
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: is going to win, whoever comes out of the West
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: is now going to win. With the Celtics out, they
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: were the only team that had the roster that might
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: have been able to compete with any of the teams
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 1: coming out of the West. But now with them gone,
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: and the fact that three of the four first round
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: series in the East went seven games and the other
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 1: one went six, can you say you have parody in
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: the East. This gives my Washing Wizard's a little bit
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: of hope, right, because Mindy Heat a little bit of hope.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of a split personality in the NBA between
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 1: the Heat and the Wizards. Totally confess that. But my god, right,
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: the difference between the one and eight is literally nothing right,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: different Street two and seven? Nothing different Street three. So
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of parody in the East. It may
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: be that they run into the juggernaut of whatever comes
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: out of the West, that's for sure. So I think
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: all of these it's been exciting. It's fun to see
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: Game sevens. Let's be honest, I don't think we're watching
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: any future NBA Champions on the East side of things.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby. That was a fabulous race. I thankfully was
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: watching in real time because again I was pacing, desperate
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: to get rid of the stone, which was right after
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: you know, got it done right after the Derby, Sweet Relief.
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 1: That was an amazing race, Golden, tempo, amazing. Claire de Vaux,
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: the first woman trainer of a Kentucky Derby winner. You know,
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: it's funny. Horse racing really is never going to get
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: popular again. I think we all know. If anything, I
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: have a feeling that one hundred years from now, maybe
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: these races won't exist anymore. But these, you know, the
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: these triple crowd races, there's still something about them. My
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: friends of O at NBC Sports do such a great
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: job covering the thing, but it was if you didn't
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: go watch the entire race. To see a horse literally
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 1: go from last to first in less than a I
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 1: think half mile was just amazing. And I have to
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: tell you, I know, I know, for one thing, I'm
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: certainly going to watch the Preakness. I hope this horse
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: isn't one of those that skips it, because this could
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: be a lot of fun to see if this horse
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: can do this. But that was it was amazing to
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: watch this horse track down the entire field to get there.
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: So that was a lot of fun. All right, I've
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 1: gone on long enough. I gave you a lot today
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: with all those great polls to dig through. Hope you
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: enjoyed it. Appreciate you coming. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: Don't forget if you like Dynastic to also tell the
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: world by liking and subscribing to that as well. I
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 1: will see you Tuesday night for the live election night stream.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 1: We're gonna see if there is a duck in the
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: Oval office that is uncrutches. That is the big news
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: that will be coming out of those primary results on
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: Tuesday night, and then of course i'll see it Wednesday morning.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening and until we upload again.