Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Fed Rate Cut Countdown🔥Crypto Market Update

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Fed Rate Cut Countdown🔥Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Raycut countdown is beginning and today is going to be
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: a breakdown for you. Is what do we expect here
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: in just a few days. My name is Paul Barren.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Welcome back into the show. Let's get started day. I
• 0:09
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• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Let me jump over to a tweet right here with
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: ash crypto volatile. Week ahead. September seventeenth is the red
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  Speaker 1: Fed rate cut decision day. Powell will give us a speech.
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  Speaker 1: Going forward, we'll get a little bit of an understanding
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  Speaker 1: of what he has outlooked for maybe the next two
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  Speaker 1: or three rate cuts if in fact there's going to
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  Speaker 1: be one, So that is a key thing, which is
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  Speaker 1: why you guys want to join our lives. On Wednesday,
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  Speaker 1: the eighteenth, is we're going to get initial job lost claims.
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  Speaker 1: That'll be a big number to keep an eye on,
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  Speaker 1: whether or not I believe it is going to becoming
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  Speaker 1: the bls. We'll find out another four point nine trillion
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  Speaker 1: in options also expiring, and also the Bank of Japan
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  Speaker 1: rate cut decision coming in on the nineteenth, so a
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  Speaker 1: lot of action this week, you guys definitely want to
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  Speaker 1: stay ahead of this. September nineteenth will be the third
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  Speaker 1: potential will be the third quadruple witching day of the year,
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  Speaker 1: and that's stock index future, stock index options, and stock
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  Speaker 1: options all expiring together, so just be on the lookout
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  Speaker 1: for that. Last two have been by some fake outs
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  Speaker 1: and then some opposite direction movements, so if you follow
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  Speaker 1: trends and charts, you know, keep an eye on that
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  Speaker 1: as well. If you look at polymarket, the probability of
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  Speaker 1: a twenty five is holding right now at ninety percent.
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  Speaker 1: Of course, some of the others at a fifty basis
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  Speaker 1: points holding under ten now, which has been dropping significantly.
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  Speaker 1: So the ninety The ninety percent twenty five basis point
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  Speaker 1: bat right now is the winner in terms of what
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  Speaker 1: it's going to look like this week at the FOMC.
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  Speaker 1: Other things that we got to keep an eye on
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  Speaker 1: right now is that the administration is still pushing very
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  Speaker 1: very hard just to make sure that he removes all
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  Speaker 1: doubt that we've got to get back in to rate cutting.
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  Speaker 1: And of course Trump is saying that we think housing
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  Speaker 1: will continue to or will get into a boom if
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  Speaker 1: we do actually get some ray cuts. So keep an
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  Speaker 1: eye on that trueflation holding out right now at two
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  Speaker 1: point one two percent, whether or not that starts to
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  Speaker 1: shift around, but at least the FED could be comfortable
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  Speaker 1: in the sense that at least with trueflation, we are
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  Speaker 1: holding that two percent line fairly consistently over the last
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  Speaker 1: few months. I want to go to a clip real quick,
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  Speaker 1: because this will get into a little detail of whether
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  Speaker 1: or not a quarter or fifty basis points is better.
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  Speaker 2: Take a look, so twenty five you think, rather than fifty,
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  Speaker 2: but you do anticipate it'll be a series of twenty
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  Speaker 2: five basis cuts this year. If the data stays.
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  Speaker 3: The way it is, I think we're going to hear again,
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  Speaker 3: this is the data dependent FED. We want to be cautious.
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  Speaker 3: So I don't think he's going to close the door
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  Speaker 3: on the possibility of more cuts this year. But I'm
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  Speaker 3: not sure that he's necessarily going to signal that it's
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  Speaker 3: a definite thing. I think he's going to more likely say,
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  Speaker 3: you know, every meeting is an independent decision and the
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  Speaker 3: data will decide.
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  Speaker 2: But if you're really just following the data at this point,
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  Speaker 2: it might push them more towards that fifty basis points.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: I might disagree with you slightly in that while the
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  Speaker 3: data has come in on inflation as expected, remember the
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  Speaker 3: last set of data showed a headline number of two
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  Speaker 3: point nine percent core inflation running somewhere like a three
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  Speaker 3: percent annual So I'm not sure I describe it as
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  Speaker 3: tame for an organization. It says they want to see
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  Speaker 3: definitive evidence that the inflation is moving to their two
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  Speaker 3: percent target.
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  Speaker 1: This is going to get dicey, I think with the FED,
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  Speaker 1: because they are dealing with kind of a two headed
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  Speaker 1: hydro right now, and that is falling job numbers and
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  Speaker 1: rising inflation. If we do see a real rise in
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  Speaker 1: inflation and a continuation of the jobs. The question is
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  Speaker 1: is whether or not Powell can sustain his strategy around
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  Speaker 1: a quarter basis points each month. And let me know
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  Speaker 1: in the comments do you think that would happen? Do
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  Speaker 1: you think he will give us quarter and then twenty five,
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  Speaker 1: twenty five, just say three cuts this year down in
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  Speaker 1: the comments. I'd love to get you guys feedback. Other
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  Speaker 1: things that are happening this week. She and Powell have
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  Speaker 1: met and they are now on a deal to finalize
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  Speaker 1: the TikTok issue. This of course will be a big
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  Speaker 1: thing going forward because this will not only, I think,
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  Speaker 1: impact what's going on with crypto, but it's also going
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  Speaker 1: to impact i think just creators in general over on
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  Speaker 1: truth socially. Basically said, hey, yeah, we're ready. It looks
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  Speaker 1: like we've got some good trade meetings going in the
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  Speaker 1: United States and China has gone very well. We're concluding this.
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  Speaker 1: The deal is also reached on a certain company, obviously
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  Speaker 1: he's talking about TikTok. Interesting that there could be two
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  Speaker 1: private individual companies involved in this. Oracle is the one
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  Speaker 1: that I'm anticipating. Who is the next one? Is the
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  Speaker 1: real question? I want to go to a quick clip
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  Speaker 1: on this that'll kind of break it down a little
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  Speaker 1: bit more. Take a look.
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  Speaker 5: The biggest question now, guys, in my mind, is whether
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  Speaker 5: the leaders might meet in person later this year, and
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  Speaker 5: whether they would do it either on the sidelines of
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  Speaker 5: the APEC summit in South Korea or whether Trump would
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  Speaker 5: go to China. So getting a TikTok deal was seen
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  Speaker 5: as one major precursor to even letting that meeting go forward.
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  Speaker 5: But it's not the only friction that's outstanding. They're sort
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  Speaker 5: of piling up now. There's those new accusations against Nvidia
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  Speaker 5: this morning, with China saying it violated anti monopoly laws.
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  Speaker 5: There's two new Chinese probes into US semiconductors over the weekend,
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  Speaker 5: and then the US on the other side added two
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  Speaker 5: dozen Chinese companies to a black list last week and
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  Speaker 5: has been actively urging allies to put tariffs on China
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  Speaker 5: over Russian oil purchases. So a lot for them to
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  Speaker 5: work through before any sort of meeting gets locked in.
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  Speaker 5: And you're right, but it's interesting that they came out
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  Speaker 5: to say they believe they have a deal. But again
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  Speaker 5: they're using this fuzzy language of a framework of a deal,
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  Speaker 5: and they're not giving us the details, and they're saying
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  Speaker 5: we probably have to wait until Friday. That means we
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  Speaker 5: have to get some sort of temporary extension since the
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  Speaker 5: next deadline is Wednesday. Before the leaders even speak on Friday,
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  Speaker 5: then they have to confirm the details. So we really
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  Speaker 5: don't know yet where this is going. All we have
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  Speaker 5: primarily is the president's post saying they believe they have
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  Speaker 5: something together.
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  Speaker 1: I'm a little bit less convinced that they actually have
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  Speaker 1: a deal. Maybe it is real, but Trump a lot
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  Speaker 1: of times he just you know, spouts stuff and it
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  Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily have any validity to it until much later,
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  Speaker 1: So maybe that's different this time. We'll see. One thing
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  Speaker 1: that is intriguing to me is the timing of something
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  Speaker 1: one said blockchain that would be highly potential here that
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  Speaker 1: we've talked about before is Polka dot. The dot supply
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  Speaker 1: now capped to two point one billion, book dots now
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  Speaker 1: has signed to support for that hardcap. Basically, what they're
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  Speaker 1: saying here is we're not going to be dealing with
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  Speaker 1: this kind of chart. This is a hard cap that
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  Speaker 1: would make Dot a lot stronger and going forward, that
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  Speaker 1: could play into Polka Dot's potential. If you think about
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  Speaker 1: what Frank McCourt has been trying to do as maybe
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  Speaker 1: being that second company. So good news, timing wise, very
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  Speaker 1: intriguing here, all happening at the time that Trump and
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  Speaker 1: g are meeting on the issue with TikTok. Other things
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  Speaker 1: I want to hit on right here is that Trump
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  Speaker 1: says US companies should no longer be forced to report
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  Speaker 1: earnings after every quarter. He says the subjects, of course,
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  Speaker 1: would be to the SEC approval. I'm not sure I'm
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  Speaker 1: totally in agreement with this in the sense that, well,
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  Speaker 1: first of I don't like overage or requirements from the SEC.
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  Speaker 1: If I was a publicly traded company, I'd like a
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  Speaker 1: little bit more leniency. But the quarterly reporting, I think
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  Speaker 1: this is a normal procedure in all of business quarterly earnings,
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  Speaker 1: quarterly reports, whether you're public or private. But I think
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  Speaker 1: stockholders deserve to see that more frequently. I think this
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  Speaker 1: hides bad companies and probably hurts good company. So not
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  Speaker 1: sure I'm on the same page with President Trump there. Solana,
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  Speaker 1: of course, is also seeing record inflows both on chain
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  Speaker 1: and from mainstreamed buyers. Basically its retail that took Solana
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  Speaker 1: to almost its all time high over the weekend we
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  Speaker 1: saw some active movement. Of course, Solana has regressed back
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  Speaker 1: down under tow forty again, So let me know if
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  Speaker 1: you guys are buying Solana right now. We've got sixty
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  Speaker 1: to one million in shorts that were liquidated. Of course,
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  Speaker 1: Solana flipped B and B and was heading for XRP
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  Speaker 1: before it got slammed back down under two forty. But
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  Speaker 1: the other thing that could play into this is how
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  Speaker 1: the dats are going to play out, and we have
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  Speaker 1: already seen a handful that have started to play out here.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Helius is another one that's coming in. They're coming in
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  Speaker 1: through what is called a pipe, and this could be
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  Speaker 1: big because it unlocks a lot of potential around capital.
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  Speaker 1: Another five hundred million into this one, so Pana Capital
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  Speaker 1: and Summer Capital behind this one as another soul treasury
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  Speaker 1: company becomes a big deal here going forward. And I
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  Speaker 1: think this is still digital asset treasury companies still on
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  Speaker 1: the cycle here most likely will continue to see those
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  Speaker 1: moving forward. Dan moorehead from Pantera, gives us a clip
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  Speaker 1: on this a little bit about what this means on Helius.
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  Speaker 1: Take a look.
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  Speaker 4: This is the first product we've ever offered that you
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: can just go buy your brokerage account. So it allows
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: access to cryptocurrencies to kind of normal investors. And so
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: far Solana doesn't have an ETF, so it's very very
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: difficult for normal investor to get access to Solana.
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  Speaker 3: And is this a leverage fund.
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  Speaker 4: No, it's just a way to own Solana, get yields
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  Speaker 4: on Solana with no leverage. It's a very simple company. Actually,
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  Speaker 4: all it does is just buy Solana for people at
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  Speaker 4: the brokerage account. This is the easiest way to get access.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: How do you think about Ethereum versus Solana right now?
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  Speaker 4: So they're both in terms of the better bed Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: So there's could be a lot of important blockchains over time.
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  Speaker 4: Solana is the fastest, cheapest, most performant and so it's
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: actually had better performance than even Bitcoin over the last
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  Speaker 4: four years. Is there a staking element to all of this? Yeah?
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  Speaker 4: So Salona typically is about seven percent and that's another thing.
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  Speaker 4: A typical investor that wants to buy ten thousand dollars
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  Speaker 4: in Salona is probably not going to figure out how
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  Speaker 4: to do that, whereas our digitizst of treasury company will
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  Speaker 4: do that for them. You know, Solon has only one
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  Speaker 4: twentieth of the market cap of Bitcoin. So I think
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  Speaker 4: it can outperform over time, and I think it's our
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  Speaker 4: current opinion that it outperforms Ethereum.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So that's that is Dan mooreheaded of Pantera,
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  Speaker 1: calling for Soul to basically do better than both ETH
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  Speaker 1: and Bitcoin. If you look at Salona floor, well, that
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  Speaker 1: is somewhat supported here because there was quite a bit
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  Speaker 1: of exodus out of Ethereum moving into Solana. A question
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: is as Salona goes up to three hundred, which we
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: think it will do in a very short order here,
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  Speaker 1: how much more will start to come in and what
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  Speaker 1: we see more retail is the real question, and will
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  Speaker 1: people start to fly away from Eth and into Solana.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Other things to keep an eye on right here is
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Brian Armstrong's out announcement, which is they're exploring a base
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: network token could be a great tool for accelerating decentralization,
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: expanding the creator and developer growth in the ecosystem.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: The drill The question is is whether or not they
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: actually pull the trigger. It says here that they to
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: be clear, there's no definitive plans. We're just updating our
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: philosophy as of now. We're exploring it. My guess is
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: they're going to do it. Question is how well does
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: it hold? If it does, most likely I see this happening.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I would agree Base would be an instant top five
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: market cap if it's done the right way. No VC,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: no inner insider deals, which that may be the problem,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: but we'll see if it all comes together here on
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Base for sure. Let me know what do you guys think.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Would you go with a Base token? It would be
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: one of your assets that you would hold. Would you
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: hold it over Ether or over Solana base the token?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the comments. If you guys are
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: not part of the Diamond Circle, will you should be?
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  Speaker 1: This is a place where we give you, guys additional content.
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  Speaker 1: Click the link down below, Follow me on X at
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  Speaker 1: Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the Paul Baron Show. Mm hmm