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Transcript

Friday MLB + WNBA Bets 6/27/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Some guys, so this is better off dead. Friday, June
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: twenty seventh, lost the streak yesterday, of course the slump resumes,
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: I guess as I was on a seven to one
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: run yesterday, zero and two with neither baseball team even
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: scoring a run. So that's a great way to lose it, right,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: A's lose. I completely got the Detroit side of the
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: handicap wrong. Is whatever that guy, whoever that guy was,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: who was pitching, who hadn't pitched in four or five
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: years or whatever, actually completely stifled the A's offense.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: So got that completely wrong.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Springs held it together and held them in the game,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: but they wanted up losing the game, and then they well,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: the A's bullpen of course made it a lot worse,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: which that was something I did think about in the handicap.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Probably would have been better to go first five innings,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: but it still would have lost. Atlanta also did not
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: score at all against Griffin Canning, which go figure.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: I can't figure that.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Whatever we move on to today, man, don't want to
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: dwell on it, don't want to think about it today.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: There's a bunch of a WNBA.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Today which I'll go over quickly here I don't love
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: the WNBA car man. I haven't had a WNBA play
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: for like a week now, but I don't really want
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: to force anything. And yet again I will clarify I'm
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: not actually betting any of these right now, just because
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: I need to conserve some of my money here.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: Well, although first of i'm winning, I should be.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: It's an investment, right, it should be doing it if
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I know what I'm doing here, right.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: So it's a double edged sword.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: But one of the main things that you want to
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: do in your betting is you don't want to bet
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: more than you could afford. That's like a main thing
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: right now, so you know when you need to kind
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: of you know, not take risks, and that's what I'm
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: trying to do right now. WNBA, we have a pretty
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: big WNBA card here, a couple of interesting lines. First
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: game up Minnesota Atlanta. I mean, these are two of
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: the better teams in the WNBA. Man, of course, because
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Atlanta has Britney grind Or, who is a dude, so
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: that kind of helps Atlanta. Minnesota excellent team as well.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Atlanta is a one and a half point favorite, actually
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: down to a one point favorite now, so it looks
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: like some money has kind of moved that line towards Minnesota.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses. Minnesota
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: lost at Washington, so they're already on the East coast,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: so it might make it a little bit easier for
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: them to travel here and just go down to Atlanta,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: and they're kind of in a bounce back spot for
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: that ugly loss. But Atlanta is also off an ugly
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: loss at Dallas, although they're returning home from it, but
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: still it was only a one game road trip, so
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: not even really a road trip, so I don't think
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be in any sort of like distracted spot
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: or anything like that. I mean, they got Minnesota coming in.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: They're one of the best teams in the league. It's
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: a pretty big game for both teams. Now, the oddsmakers
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: lining this as Atlanta being the favorite. They're telling you
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is the better team, but not very significantly, as
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Atlanta probably gets a few points for home court, or
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: at least a couple points, and the line is not
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: quite the full home court advantage. But see them as
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: a favorite in general might kind of throw some public
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: betters off because like, well, wait a minute, why is
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: it Lanta the favorite win Minnesota as the better record,
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Minnesotaly has two losses, yeah, and Atlanta pretty good though,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: and they've been quite good at home. They only have
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: one loss at home, so they are definitely a good
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: home team. Even though the line looks like it's moved
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: a little bit against Atlanta, I don't know if I
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: would agree with that. I would probably slightly lean to
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta side, just because I think it's gonna be
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: a game where both teams are gonna show up. Atlanta's
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: previous game was an uglier loss in my opinion. The
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's was losing to Dallas like that, So I think
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Atlanta's probably the side to lean to there. Grant, what's
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: up man, Bengals, is that to win to win the
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: title twenty to one and borrow MVP seven to one
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: League MVP or Super Bowl MVP. I haven't looked at
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: the odds for that generally. I mean, I did have
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: an NFL season win total show, and if you saw that,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: I did lean to the Bengals going over their win
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: total because I think they're gonna be a little bit
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: overlooked because their season was bad last year.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: Bad.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: But I mean They were right there right at the
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: end of the season. If they hadn't lost that opening
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: game of the season to the New England Patriots, they
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: would have made the playoffs. And that was a game
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: they just were totally distracted by, like offseason issues and
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: stuff and getting back into form, so that one game
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: basically kept the Bengals out of the playoffs. I think
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: the Bengals will be good again. It's just that their
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: defense is a huge problem. So are they equipped to
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: actually win the Super Bowl? I would say probably not,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: although I think they will be in the playoffs. They
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: also have a difficult division though, remember JR.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: What's up? Man?
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Except for Cleveland? Cleveland sucks, Nate. What's up man? NHL
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: is the draft tonight? Yeah, I don't know what goes
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: on in the NHL draft, man. I pay almost no
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: attention to it. I watched a little bit of the
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: NBA draft. NHL personnel stuff is kind of like beyond
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: me man, Indiana at Dallas in the WNBA. Here is
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: a hyped up game because it's Caitlin Clark against Page Beckers,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: And of course we know that was the final four
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: matchup in college basketball two years ago.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: And I believe Caitlin Clark won that game, right.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I believe Iowa beat Yukon and then lost to South
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Carolina in the finals, that right, if I remember correctly.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: I think that's correct.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: So this is kind of a rematch there, so maybe
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a revenge angle for Dallas with
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Beckers there to get back against Caitlin Clark. The problem is,
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think Caitlin Clark is playing in this game
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: because she's listed as a game time decision. But this
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: line was seven and a half at one point, ou
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: it's down to like two and a half. It looks
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: like the opener was four here and outs down to
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: three to two and a half.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Dallas, they're still not a.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Very good team, man, even though they've been winning a
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: little bit more recently. They're not gonna be lying like that.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: If Caitlin Clark is playing, I would not think Indiana
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: is still a significantly better team than Dallas. So I
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: think Caitlin Clark is not playing based on this line.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: If the line does move up, that would indicate that
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Kayln Clark is playing. See her ESPN had the opener
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half. Now it's two and a half.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Cayln Clark listed as a game time decision, But I
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: really think that line is indicating she's not gonna play.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: If it is determined that she is gonna play, I
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: think you're gonna see that line go up. So you
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: have to kind of predict do you think she's gonna
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: play or not. So this is a big time question
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: mark here, So I don't want to get involved in
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: this game. If both players were playing, I would probably
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: lead to grabbing Dallas plus the points.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: Indiana is on a back to back as well.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: But they had a bad game yesterday which Kaylen Clark
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: missed that game, I believe they lost by ten to
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: the La Sparks at home, not a good game for Indiana.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: So in a way it is a bounce back spot,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: but they have no rest and they have to travel
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: from Indiana to Dallas. So there are some positives and
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: some negatives here for Indiana. It's not an injured player
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: spot for Indiana with Kayln Clark, because of course, that
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: only applies to the first game. As I always say,
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: the first game that that star players out the team
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: will have a tendency to step up their game and
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: you get better value on that team so all of
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: that comes into play. But then after that first game,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: that kind of the angle doesn't really apply anymore after
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: that first game, and then you actually want to fade
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the team when Caitlyn Clark comes back.
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: So that's what I'd be looking for here.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So if Caitlin Clark is gonna come back in this game,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: although I know she only missed like one or two
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: games and the team is still used to having her
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: there so probably won't be a big like chemistry issue,
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: but she wasn't playing that well the last couple of
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: games before she got hurt. So if it's announced she's
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: coming back, this line is gonna go way up again.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Dallas in that case
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: and go with that little bit of revenge angle there.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Although Dallas is coming off a big upset win over Atlanta,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: But I don't think they're gonna overlook Indiana, man, So
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: that's kind of the thing there. I don't think they'll
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: be in a huge letdown spot. Really tough game to
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: gauge though. WNBA Basketball UFC crossover, Yeah we should, I mean,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: actually yeah, WNBA is we got a lot of chick
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: fighting going on in WNBA.
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: Man, let's keep it up.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Let's have Sophie Cunningham getting involved in more of that
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: because she's hot. Good Bye Bengals standards or NFL stadors both,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I guess. I mean, I think the Bengals will be
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: a competitive team. I mean they have been for the
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: last few years. They still have all their offensive weapons there,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: so it's not like they're gonna be bad. I just
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: don't think that their defense is gonna be good enough
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: to win a championship. All right, Chicago at Golden State,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: this is a weird one too. Golden State up from
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: eight and a half to nine and a half win
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: would Golden State, who's an expansion team this year, they're
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: nine and a half point favorite. I mean, I understand
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Chicago's bad, and they've been really bad without Van der Sloot,
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: who is their best player, but they've actually started playing
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: a little bit better. And Golden State's coming of a
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: real close call against the Liberty, who is one of
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: the best player one of the best teams in the league.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: So the fact that Golden State's coming up of a
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: big game like that where they almost beat the Liberty,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: I think Golden State's in kind of a hangover spot.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Here Man when you play an all out game like
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: that against one of the top teams in the league
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: and you almost win the game, Uh, that's gonna put
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: you in a bad spot in the next game.
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: They're nine and a half point underdogs in that one.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Uh. The Liberty basically the main reason for their struggles
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: in this one is because they lost the turnover battle
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: at home or no excuse a Golden State lost a
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: turnover battle.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: What am I saying? My mistake? So I don't know
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: what I was gonna where I was gonna go with that.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: The Liberty did have a really bad shooting performance in
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: the game, the thirty six point the field.
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: Uh, So that is part of the reason why.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: What happened in that game happened, although they still escaped
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: with the win, but it was a pretty bad performance
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: from the Liberty. Golden State almost got that win, which
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: would have been a huge win. Meanwhile, Chicago, they're coming
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: off coming in off a win that broke a losing
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: streak for them, so I think that's helpful. They beat
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the LA Sparks, that's gonna break some losing momentum for them. Yeah,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: it was an upset, but it was a more mild
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: upset of about five and a half.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: I think LA.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Was maybe getting some players back in that game or something,
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: which is why the line shifted like it did.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: I don't even know.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: But Chicago is actually starting to play a little bit
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: better offensively. Angel Reese is actually starting to put up
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: some point totals. So this is probably the best lean
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: in the WNBA today. I would grab the points for
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Chicago in this game. I don't think I'm gonna elevate
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: it to giving it out as a play on the show,
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: but that's the closest that I have in the WNBA.
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: I would grab the points for Chicago.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Golden State again, coming off that really tough performance where
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: they almost pulled off a massive upset in Chicago, breaking
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: their losing momentum there. The Liberty are playing at Phoenix
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: and this is one of the most confounding lines here.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: So we see Phoenix has gone from a two point
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: dog to a one point favorite here. So Phoenix is
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: actually favored against the Liberty, which if the public sees this,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: they're gonna come in and look at this and probably think, well,
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: I kind of want to take the Liberty right because
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: they're basically seen as I mean they're the returning champs.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: They're still seen as like one of the best teams
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: in the league. Phoenix.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: I was saying that they're not as good as their
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: record looks, but they were missing players early on. They're
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: starting to get these players back, and maybe I'm wrong
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: about that Phoenix.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know the WNBA well enough.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Maybe Phoenix is better than we think that they are
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: to the point where they're actually only a one and
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: a half point. They're one and that point favorite here,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: although at home, so they're not getting full home court
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: advantage here. The other thing is that Jones is out
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: for the Liberty, and she is one of their starters.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: She's one of their better players. So Jones is out,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: So keeping that in mind, I think she wasn't really
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: playing particularly well. I think she was hurt and now
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: she's I think she was playing herd and now she's
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: out with that injury. So that is part of the
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: reason why this line is where it is, because we
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: can look at where the Mercury. The Mercury played the
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Liberty earlier this year, and I believe the Liberty that
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: wasn't that long ago. Phoenix beat them actually two games ago.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: What am I saying, so Phoenix pulled off an eleven
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: point upset, So the Liberty were an eleven point favorite
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: eleven and a half point favorite at home in this game.
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: So there must be some other personnel changes here, because.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: How do you go from being an eleven and a
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: half point favorite to a one point dog just by
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: switching venues.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: It doesn't make any sense. So in a way, I
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: think that there is.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Some value maybe to be had on the side of
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: the Liberty in this game, because again, even though the
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: line looks misleading with Phoenix being a favorite at home,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: the team's records are actually fairly even, and the fact
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: that the Liberty lost this game to Phoenix at home
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: is eleven a half point favorites a couple of games ago.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: I think the Liberty are.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Going to be in a road revenge spot where a
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: lot of times when a team loses to a team
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: on their own floor and then they go out and
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: they face that team in quick succession on the road,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: it's like a zigzag spot where that team shows up
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: in the next game. And again, I do think you're
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: getting some line value. You get the Liberty as an
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: underdog here, even though the public might think that as well.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I think that that's the way to look at this game.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: This was the game I was thinking of.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: The liber already had twenty turnovers in this game, just
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: an atrocious amount of turnovers, and that was a lot
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: of the reason for why they lost this game. Though
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: they did lose the rebounding battle as well, but that
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: turnover margin was insane. For a home team to do that,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: it's not very likely, so I would actually probably lean
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: to the Liberty, even though the money looks like it's
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: coming in against that on Phoenix, I don't really love
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: that Phoenix coming off another blowout win over Chicago. They're
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: returning home from a four game road trip, which is
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: about as long as you're ever gonna see in the WNBA,
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: so it might be a little bit of a difficult
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: spot for them as well, returning home from a road
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: trip having had a great road trip. But they won
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: every single game. So yeah, it would be Liberty or
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: a pass for me in this game. Liberty again. They
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: also just escaped with that win over Golden State, So man,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of thinking about maybe this one might even
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: be stronger than the other one I gave out on
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: the other lean that I said I had against Golden
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: State on whoever the hell they're playing Chicago.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: I do kind kind of like the Liberty in.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: The spot, man, I just don't really want to go
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: against what the market red looks like.
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: Right now.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: I will stay away because the Liberty are playing a
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: third straight road game, which isn't really that easy. But again,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: they just escaped in that last game, man, So yeah,
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I mean my lead to the Liberty in that one, Naity,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Uh yeah, that's right. New York Sharia with their new
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Muslim mayor there. And then Connecticut is at Seattle. I mean,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: Connecticut's the worst team in the league hands down. Seattle's
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: up from eighteen to nineteen and a half. This is
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: a mismatch. I mean, there's not a whole lot to
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: say about that, But do you want to lay the
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: points with Seattle when the line is that big?
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Seattle's coming up that loss to Indiana. I said that
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: I leaned Indiana in that game on the show, so
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: that was actually correct. But now Seattle, after that loss,
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: it did break their losing momentum. But Seattle is coming
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: off a big win over the Liberty the game before that,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: which is why I said I thought they were gonna
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: letdown spot, so now I think they're kind of more
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: in a bounce back spot here, and they'll probably take
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: care of business here against Connecticut. But will they actually
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: win by twenty points. That's a different story. Connecticut's been
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: getting absolutely annihilated in a lot of their games.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: I mean they've lost seven in a row.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: Coming off losing by whatever, that is twenty six points
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: to Vegas on the road, third straight road game is
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: kind of a spot where they might be a little
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: bit of a little bit embarrassed. But it is a
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: third straight road game too, so it's not really an
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: easy spot for Connecticut. But I don't want to keep
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: talking about WNBA forever here, Let's get to baseball. I
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: have three baseball plays here today, some extra angles that
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: might work today as well.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: So Mets in Pittsburgh. This is one of those angles.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: The Mets played yesterday and Pittsburgh did not, and the
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Mets won and beat me. Unfortunately, the Mets use a
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: lot of their bullpens, so even though the Mets have
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen over Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh's bullpen sucks. The Mets
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, so the rest advantage is definitely on the
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: side of Pittsburgh here, the Mets now having to go
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: to Pittsburgh al though, then again, the Mets are starting
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: a road trip, so a lot of times you are
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: focused when you start a road trip. But again, the
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Mets played yesterday, so they're a little bit burned out.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: It was a big divisional series against Atlanta where they
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: lost the first two and won the last two, I believe,
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: So the Mets are coming off a huge series as well,
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: so they could be in a bit of a letdown spot.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is actually returning over a road trip, but it
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: was only a road trip that took them to Milwaukee,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: but that is a big divisional series for Pittsburgh where
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: they won the first game and then they had a
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: close game and lost the Paul Skeens game in the
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: last game up against miss Zerowski, who looks really good. Pittsburgh,
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: so they're not exactly in a spot where I really
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: want to recommend them as a play. But I am
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: still gonna lean to Pittsburgh in this game because it's
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: not really a long road trip. They did have the
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: day off yesterday, so I do think Pittsburgh because they
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: have the rest advantage here and I think the Mets
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: are in more of a letdown spot than Pittsburgh is
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: in a hangover spot here coming off that big series
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: against Atlanta. I also don't love David Peterson, although I
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: know he's pitching effectively for the Mets here two point
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: nine to eighty RA one point two to four whip.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: He's been a little bit more beatable on the road
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: to a three point eight six ROADYRA.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: He's not really a good form though. The last couple
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: of starts.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: He's walked three apiece in each of his last two
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: starts was against Atlanta and Philly on the road, though,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: which are not the easiest opponents to face.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: He was coming off of a ridiculous.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: Complete game shutout against Washington, so I think maybe he
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: fell into a little bit of a let down spot
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: the way he didn't pitch that badly against Atlanta, going
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: seven innings, but three walks is still not good. And
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: then three walks again not even making a five innings
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: against Philly, although we know Philly hits well. So he
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: is stepping down in class to face a bad Pittsburgh offense,
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: which is one of the things that gives you a
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: little bit of hesitation is Pittsburgh's offense is obviously not good,
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: so Peterson is stepping down a class, but still having
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: a seven to six strike a walk ratio over the
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: last two starts. Seems little bit iffy to me. Up
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: against Pittsburgh in his career, he has sixty two at
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: bats against him. He's held him to a low ten
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: average but a slightly high seven to twenty five ops
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: has an eighteen to twelve strike out walk ratio against him,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: which is too many walks, and he's given up three
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: home runs to them, So we'll see what happens. I mean,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: you know, McCutcheon is old now on al cruise has
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: been like I think he got benched like a few
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: games ago for not hustling. So I mean there are
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: some issues with Pittsburgh's bats here as well, and overall Peterson,
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, he doesn't match up that badly against his
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: bad offense since one reason, I don't quite want to fade.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: The Metsiero. Mitch Keller is pitching for Pittsburgh.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: He's having a decent season four point oh two ERA
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: one point two to WHIP. He's been a bit worse
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: at home, though, which is where he is here four
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: point five eighty r at home, so that's not great.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: This month, seventeen to five strike out walk ratio is
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: pretty good, although last two starts he walked two apiece. Pittsburgh,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: of course, has lost most of his games. I mean,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: they've only won a couple of his games, and recently
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: it's been even worse. They've lost five games in a row,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: five of his starts in a row, and they've lost
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know whatever that is ten of his last
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: eleven starts probably even worse than that, so and he's
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: one in ten because he gets absolutely no run support.
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: But over the last two starts got a little bit
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: more dicey there. The one game was at Wrigley Field,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: which they're a good offense, but an eight to four
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio isn't that great in those last
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: two Keller, he's okay, but he's not exactly in the
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: greatest form right now.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: But he does actually do well against the Mets.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: In eighty five at bats one seventy six average, allowed
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: five to sixty two o ps, twenty to eight strike
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio, so overall he has actually held the
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Mets hitters down. So I do actually lean to Pittsburgh
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: due to the situation. Mets are obviously going to be
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: a public team, and I think they're laying too much
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: of a price on the road given the matchup, given
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: the spot here, they're actually the line is plummeted though,
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: down from minus one sixty and minus one thirty two,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: so to me, I think that is reverse live movement.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: That is a legit movement going against the public. Eighty
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: five percent of tickets eighty nine percent of the cash
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: on the Mets there, so they do have more of
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: the cash percentage according to these percentages, but the fact
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: this line has moved so significantly, I think that's a
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: legitimate move.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: I agree with Pittsburgh.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: I would lean to taking Pittsburgh as the money line
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: home underdog, but I don't quite want to touch it.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: A's at the Yankees. Yankees were turning over from a
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: road triple though was a one series road trip to Cincinnati,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees had yesterday off. Both teams actually had
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: yesterday off, so that's a little bit of a wash. Oh,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: no excuse, the A's did not What am I saying?
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: I had the A's as a play yesterday. My mistake.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: The A's played in the afternoon yesterday, so the A's
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: are now traveling from Detroit to New York. And the
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: A's did have to use some of their bullpen yesterday.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Of course, we know the A's bullpen is a troch.
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: It's one of the worst in the league. So the
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: fact that the Yankees arrested and have the better bullpend,
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: it is looking like it's maybe not a great set
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: up here for the A's. Mitch Spence is pitching for
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: the A's. He's been okay. I mean three point eight
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: four ERA, one point three whip. He's been a lot
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: better on the road though two point one ERA on
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: the road getting him out of that horrible hitters park
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: in Sacramento. He's been better, although he's facing a really
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: good Yankees lineup and this is also a hitter friendly
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: park in New York. He didn't do well his last time.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: I would only go in four and two thirds, giving
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: up four runs against Cleveland, who's not a good offense.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: Gave up eight hits in that game. Suspense not great
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: in that one.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Although overall this month and five starts he's been okay,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: with a two point four to ninety RA and fifteen
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: to three strike a walk race yio. He just hasn't
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: gone deep into many of those starts. He's gone five
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: innings in three of them and fewer than Vibe in
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: the other couples, so he doesn't really get you deep
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: into games, which does mean you're gonna see the A's
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: bullpen coming to this one, which is probably not great.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Up against the Yankees, there's six for twelve off him
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: lifetime with a home run from Ben Rice, five hundred
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: average with a five of the outs or strikeouts, but
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: five hundred average one thousand and three seventy two oh ps,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: so it's a small sample size. But most of the
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Yankees lineup has actually seen Spence like once at least,
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: and they've hit him pretty well, so it doesn't look
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: great for Spence. Series up against Will Warren, who doesn't
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: have great numbers this season four point six six ERA,
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: one point three to three WHIP. His ERA is actually
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: better at home though, three point seven to nine. He's
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: been better in Yankee Stadium, and he's pitching fairly well
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: this month three point four to seventy RA, twenty seven
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: to seven strike a walk ratio. Yankees have won three
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: of his last four starts they've actually won whatever that is,
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: seven of his last nine starts, I think is what
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: that is. So Yankees have actually been winning his games.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: He's only a lot more than earned runs, or more
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: than three earned runs, I guess we could say twice
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: going all the way back to the start in May,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: so that's not too bad either. The start that he
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: did really bad. He got wrecked by the Dodgers, and
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: we know the Dodgers are really good. So in this
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: case he's facing a weaker offense than that. Our last
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: two starts, he had seventeen strikeouts in two walks, when
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: at least six innings in both of them. So he
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: is in pretty decent form right now. And against the
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: AA is what do we have twenty at bats? They
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: have a two hundred at average against him in four
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: eighty eight ops, so Warren has definitely held them down.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: So I think given all that, probably the Yankees are
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: the right side in this one. But of course you're
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: always paying attacks for the Yankees throughout from minus two
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: ten to minus two forty seven. Here ninety percent takes
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash. I mean, that's ridiculous.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: They are obviously going to be really public I don't
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: think you lay a money line like this.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: Uh. Probably I would say.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: Maybe a Yankees run line, although I know they're at
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: home so you might not get the final at bat
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: in the ninth inning, but probably that's the way that
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: I would look. There's Yankee run line there, just to
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: win the game by margin. Next up, I'm gonna give
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: out a play on Tampa up Baltimore under the total,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: which I think this total is too high at nine.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: I know a lot of times are the books throw
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: on a number at nine. It's like, well they're telling
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: you they think it's gonna be higher scoring. But I'm
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: not so sure about that. It looks like more juice
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: has come in on the under nine. It's like teetering
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: towards eight and a half. If you can get it
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: under nine, that is what you want, because nine is
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: a key number because it breaks the four to four
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: tie in baseball, So you want to get it under
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: nine if you can. I would pay maybe up to
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: about minus one twenty to get that fifty nine per tickets,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: eighty eight percent of the cash on the over.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: I'm not really sure that I buy that, though.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay did play yesterday, but they didn't really burn
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: out a lot of their bullpen yesterday and Baltimore was off.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: So we have a situation where Baltimore, even though their
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: bullpen isn't that good, Tampa Bay's bullpen is good and
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's bullpen is at least rested coming into this. And
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: of course I like the starting pitch, so I'm gonna
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: talk about that in a second. Baltimore they're just staying
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: at home as well, so I mean that is gonna
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: mean they're gonna rest up a little bit. Could mean
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: their offense gets a little bit cold with a day
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: off two though, so I like playing on unders where
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: teams do have days off. Tampa, like I said, didn't
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: really tax their bullpen that much yesterday against Kansas City.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Ryan Pepio is gonna be pitching for Tampa and he's
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: been pretty good recently. Overall in the season, he's been
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: good three point oh four ERA, one point one whip.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: I think he's getting too much crap man, and he's
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: been a little bit better on the road to all
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: those home road splits aren't that significant, but two point
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: eight three road ram last few starts. I mean, look
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: at his numbers in June man, he's a two point
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: five to five ERA and a thirty five to eight
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio and Tampa's won three of his four
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: starts in the month of June, and he is not
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: a lot more than three earned runs in any of them.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: And that was a game at the Red Sox at Fenway,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: which is not an easy park to pitch him. He
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: said seven or more in all four starts, double digit
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: strikeouts last time out against this Baltimore team.
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, which, yes, that does worry me a little bit.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: The fact that Pepio did just see Baltimore, so that
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: means Baltimore is recently familiar with him, So it means
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: he may not do that well again, because he absolutely
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: wrecked them.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: He went eight and in.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: He was the eleven strikeouts in that game. But he
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: didn't Overexert himself. He basically reached his typical pitch count
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: in that game. Yeah, maybe he won't do as well
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: in this game, but we don't need him to do
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: that well. We need him to pitch well, but we
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: don't necessarily need him to be completely lights out like that.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: And Baltimore, I mean, their offense isn't really that great,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: but also just historically they do not do well against Pepio,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: which does include that start. I understand that, and I
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: know the offense has a little bit of an edge
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: when they've seen that pitcher recently, but.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: They'd seen Pepio before.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: And overall, fifty eight of bats against Pepio, twenty two
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: strikeouts to four walks two o seven average six thirty
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: seven ops seems a little bit high, just because he
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: has a lot of three on runs to them. But
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: other than that, Pepio, he's done well against this Baltimore lineup.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: And he's gonna be opposed by Tomoyuki Sugano, who.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: Is a rookie.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Well he's a rookie in the majors, but he's been
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: pitching professionally for well over a decade here because he
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: was pitching in Japan for a long long time. So
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: he is an experienced pitcher. Three point five to five yr,
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: one point two one whip. Yeah, he started to do
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse this month. I get that of
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Baltimore won three of his last four starts. His last
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: three starts, he didn't even make it five innings. Yeah,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: so that is a little bit worrisome. Yes, sure, he
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: held his opponents to three earned runs in each of them,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: which isn't that bad.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: Yes, he did have too.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Many walks, six walks compared to ten strikeouts, but he's
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: not really a strikeout pitcher. So that's the thing that
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: the analytics guys don't like Sugano because he doesn't strike
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: guys out. But I've liked him like all year, especially
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: when he's been facing offenses that have never seen him before.
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: Hint, hint.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Now, if we look at these bad starts that he
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: had the last few outings, one was at the Yankees
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: at the Bronx, I mean, I think you can give
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: him a pass for that one man, so that obviously
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: otherre are reasons for that. I mean, the Yankees good
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: hitting team at a hitting stadium. But one against Anaheim,
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: I actually think can give him a pass as well,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: because Anaheim had already seen him. So he's done a
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: lot better when it's been a lineup that is facing
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: him for the first time. They like struggle to figure
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: him out, and he did really well the first time
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: out against Anaheim, but then after they had seen him
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: once already, they did better against him the next time,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of explainable as well. And then the
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: other start he did bad and was at the A's
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's a terrible stadium for pitchers to pitch
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: at the a's man in that ridiculous Sacramento Triple A stadium,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: So I think you can kind of put an asterisk
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: next to all three of those starts there. And before that,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: he pitched pretty well in Seattle, so I think we
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: might see Sugano do a little bit better here. Again,
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: he still is only a lot more than three on
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: runs once all season, still has a pretty low walk
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: rate this season, even though strikeout rates not high. So
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, I like what we're getting out of Sugano.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, as I was hinting at, Tampa
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Bay has never faced him before, so I think he
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: has a little bit of an extra edge facing a
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: lineup that is an okay lineup, but they have not
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: seen him before.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: So I like both starting pitchers here under.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: Is gonna be the recommended play in that game in
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: Tampa Baltimore, even though the oddsmakers are kind of telling
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: you they think the game is gonna be a little
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: bit higher scoring, but I don't really think so. And
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: this is not at steinbrender Field either, which is a
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: hit or friendly spring training stadium that Tampa Bay plays,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: and this is gonna be at Baltimore, so under is
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: the recommendation there. Yankee is changing their name to al Qaedas, Yeah,
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: because they are well, I mean, they are still Yankees, though,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: it's just that the Yankees are voting for these types
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: of people. Minnesota at Detroit's gonna be a difficult one
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: to handicap, although we can say that Detroit played yesterday
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: they used a decent amount of their bullpen because Ends,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: the guy who's I forgot beat me. I did not
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: see that coming where Ends went five shutout innings yesterday.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: Didn't think that was gonna happen. But Detroit did use
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: a lot of their bullpen yesterday's. Even though the Detroit's
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: bullpend is good, they are kind of unrested here. But
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: we don't know who Minnesota is even gonna start in
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: this game. Minnesota did not play yesterday. Minnesota has been
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: They were on a rough stretch and then they beat
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: Seattle twice and now they're starting a road trips. So
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: Minnesota does have momentum and rest here when a team
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: starts a road trip and they're doing it with momentum.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: A lot of times that momentum will carry out until
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: the road trip. And obviously, I mean they're facing Detroit,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: so you know Minnesota's gonna be focused to face Detroit,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: who's one of the top teams in the league and
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: the top team in their division. It's just hard to
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: handicap because we don't know who Minnesota is starting. Pitcher
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: is gonna be swire, Gibson Long is pitching for a
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Gibson Long is pitching for Detroit. Here four point five
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: eighty RA this season doesn't look that great, but at
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: one point way whip is pretty good. I guess a
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: thirteen to two strike a walk ratio. He's only made
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: four starts, and it seems like they're kind of letting
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: him go a little bit longer into some of these starts. Now,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: he went six and a third last time out, but
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: he gave up three home runs, so the long ball
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: was a problem. But that was at Tampa Bay that
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Steinbrenner Field there, which is a fairly home run conduc
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: of park, and he's still only allowed four and runs
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: in that outing and didn't walk anybody. So Gibson Long
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: is pitching pretty well.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: He's a guy.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: He's been dealing with injuries man, throughout his career, which
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: is why his career has never really taken off. Although
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: two years ago when he pitched for Detroit, had good numbers,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: so we could get something out of him as the
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: season progresses.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know what we're gonna get.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Out of him in this specific game though, up against Minnesota.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: They've never actually even seen him before. So Gibson Long
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: might actually do okay in this game. I just don't
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: really expect him to go more than maybe like five innings.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: So you are gonna get Detroit's bullpen in this game,
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: and they are a little bit unrested going up against
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: arrested Minnesota bullpen, although Minnesota's bullpen has definitely been struggling recently,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: so they are the worst of the two bullpens, but
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: them getting rest might help a little bit.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: So this is a tough.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Game to gauge, man, It is very tough to gauge
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: this game. Detroit's down for I just won thirty and
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: I just want twenty one. So it looks like some
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: money has come in fading Detroit here, and situationally, yeah,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: I kind of agree with that, because again, Minnesota starting
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: a road trip and having a day offers Detroit did
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: not does put Minnesota in the better spot, so I
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: probably agree with leaning that way, but again I want
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: to see who Minnesota is starting. San Diego at Cincinnati,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati staying at home.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: Both teams had yesterday off.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: I believe San Diego is starting a road trip with
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: a little bit of momentum, so again, could be a
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: bit of a focused spot for San Diego there, because
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: when you start a road trip again, you tend to
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: be a little bit more focused. So and that rest
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: is probably necessary because San Diego does have a pretty
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: good bullpen, but they were getting used a bit, so
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: that rest is probably gonna be helpful. San Diego has
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: the better bulp, and I believe they have the better
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: of the starting pitching matchup here with Dylan Cees on
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: the mound, although he's been mediocre this year. Four point
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: four to three ERA and one point twenty nine whip
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: not great numbers, and he has been pretty bad on
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: the road, so that is one thing to worry about here.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Six point two six roadyra he has pretty significant home
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: road splits when he's pitching away from that pitcher friendly
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: San Diego stadium there.
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: He's not doing that well this month.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: Really high strikeout ray, thirty one strikeouts in twenty three
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: and two thirds in. He's been twelve walks as well,
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: so he's been getting strikeouts, but he's also been wild
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: three point eight ERA this month. This is in four starts,
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: which not terrible, especially considering he faced the Dodgers twice
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: and they got to him the second time he faced them,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: but of course they'd just seen him, so that gave
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers a little bit of an extra edge that time.
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Cease up against Cincinnati specifically, actually doesn't have good numbers.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: Of the only three of their hitters have ever seen
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: before him. They're five to fourteen off him three p
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: fifty seven average eight to ninety nine oh ps. But
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: Gavin Lux has four of those five hits, so really
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: it's one guy doing a lot of that damage. So
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Cease might not do that bad in this game, but
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: he's bad on the road.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: Again.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati does have a home run friendly park here, hitter
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: friendly park, so Cease might actually struggle. It's difficult to
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: gauge this game, man, which is why I don't really
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: want to play it. And then Nick Martinez is the
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: slate had started for the Reds, but they basically turned
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: him into an opener.
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: He's got a four point four ERA one point two
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: to three whip this season, been a little bit better
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: at home three point eight nine home ERA. But he's
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: started making these short stints man, as he pitched on
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: the nineteenth, the twenty first, and the twenty third, uh
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: going two and two thirds two innings and one inning,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: although he had pretty much clean sheets in the last
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: two outings. But he's basically going with an opener now.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: I think we're actually I guess he came out of
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: the bulp and in that game against the Yankees because.
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: He got a hold in that game.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what the gonna do with Martinez
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: here man, because he was starting, he was getting a
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: starter's workload all the way up until June nineteen, well
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: maybe even in that game. I think he probably started
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: the game too, and he got obliterated by Minnesota, so
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: then it looks like in the next two games they
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: didn't give him a starter's workload anymore. So I don't
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: know what they're planning on doing with Martinez here, But
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: with having the day off yesterday, they might only let
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: him go a couple innings again here and then turn
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: it over to the bullpen. So it's difficult to gauge
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: what Cincinnati is even gonna do.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: Man, I mean, this is the new Major League Baseball.
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: You have to try to figure out how long these
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: starting pitchers are even gonna go into these games, whereas
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: before it was always like, yeah, we know the starter
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: is gonna go like basically as long as they can
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: before they throw too many pitchers or start getting lit up.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: So difficult to gauge this man up against San Diego,
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: Martinez has not done well in seventy at bats. They
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: have a three forty three average nine to twenty seven
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: ops off him. Bogart's five for thirteen, so there's some
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: player prop potential there with a home run and a walk.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: Machado four for eleven with four doubles, three RBIs, so
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: a couple of these guys hit him pretty well. Man,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Martinez doesn't look like it lines up very well, especially
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: if he's gonna be only in the game for a
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: little bit as well. He might not do well even
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: in that span, and then they turn it over to
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: the bultpen might get even worse. But then looking at
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: what the market is doing. The market is actually indicating
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: on the reds. I don't get it at all.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's just because Cease could do bad in this
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: game as well. Sixty percent of the tickets are on
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: San Diego, but eighty five percent of the cash on
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati here.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's crazy. It's a big It looks.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: Like a big pros versus Joe's split here where the
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: public likes San Diego and the professional money likes Cincinnati.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: I would not go that far with it. I don't
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: love it.
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: San Diego is favorite on the road though, which maybe
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: the professionals are just saying, well, we don't think they
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: should be favorite on the road. I could see this
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: game going over though, although again the market doesn't agree
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: with that either. The total sitting at nine juice to
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: the over, which is a pretty high toll, sixty three
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, eighty three percent of
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: couch on the under. But none of that really makes
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: sense to me, because if you're expecting San Diego to
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: not do well, then wouldn't that mean you're expecting Cease
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: to pitch pretty poorly here? Because I don't really see
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: a situation where it Cincinnati gets a great pitching performance here.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: I mean their bullpen is really not that good. Yeah,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: it looks like both starting pitchers might have some reasons
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: why they might struggle in this game. So yeah, I
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: mean that's the way that I look at the game,
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: and it's completely different than what the market is saying.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: So do with that information what you will. Saint Louis
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: is at Cleveland. Saint Louis is coming off a big
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: series against the Cubs. Man, they played yesterday, so not
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: a great spot for Saint Louis.
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: They only used three relief pitchers yesterday, so not that bad.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: But coming off a huge series against the Cubs could
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a difficult spot. Difficult difficult spot,
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: even though they're going on the road here, which a
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: lot of times when you start a road trip, you
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: are focused to start the road trip. But when you're
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: coming off a big divisional series against the Cubs and
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: now you're playing Cleveland, I don't know that you're gonna
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: be that focused. Man and Cleveland did also play yesterday,
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: though they lost at home to Toronto, so Cleveland is
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: staying at home here, so they at least have a
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: travel edge. They didn't use much of their bullpen either.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: Babying got them pretty deep into the game, and then
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: the bullpen kind of just, you know, just continue to
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: lose the games. Goussman just really dominated yesterday for Toronto,
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: so Cleveland just kind of, I think at that point,
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: just brought in some of their lesser relievers just to
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: finish the game off. So Cleveland's bullpen is actually in
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: decent shape coming into this game, but there are some
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: reasons to dislike both of these pitchers here as well.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: Sunny Gray, I mean generally I do like him three
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: point seven two ERA, one point one to nine whip
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: for Saint Louis here, but he's been way worse on
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: the road with a five point eight to eight road ERA,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: so he definitely struggles on the road, so that is
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: a concern. This month, he's been fine fourteen to three
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio. He did have one bad start
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: which was on the road where he gave up six
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: runs to Milwaukee. Again, doesn't pitch that well on the road,
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: even though strike a walk ratio is still good four
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: point h two ERA this month, because that start skewed it.
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, he actually pitched well against the Dodgers at home,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: but on the road he's just bad man. Saint Louis
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: still has won a lot of his games, though, they've
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: won seven of his last eight starts, so he is
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: still effective and you know they're winning games behind him.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Up against Cleveland, Gray in one hundred and twenty two
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: at bats against them two forty six average slightly high
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: seven to twenty two ops though, because he has fifteen
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: walks against them to twenty eight strikeouts and three home runs.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Fifteen walks is pretty high, man. That's a lot of walks.
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: So some of these guys are fairly familiar with him,
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: although he for the most.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Part, he does okay against Cleveland though, so I don't know.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit iffy for Sonny Gray, though. He's
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: up against Luis Ortiz, who I think is the worst
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: of the two pitchers four point three ERA one point
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: four one whip. I mean, that is a bad whip.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: You can't put one and a half guys on base
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: per inning and get away with it all. He's been
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: better at home three eras so the home road splits
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: look a lot worse for Sunny Gray than they do
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: for Ortiz and Ortees is actually coming off a ten
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: strikeout shutout performance at the A's Stadium, which is actually
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: pretty impressive, although overall this month he has been walking
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: too many guys twenty seven to eleven streggle walk ratio.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: Nice high strikeout rate, but too many walks. Kind of hilarious.
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Did he allowed three on runs this month and didn't
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: allow any in that A's hitter friendly park, so he's
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: kind of a mystery. Really, four point zero three ERA
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: this month, I mean, pretty mediocre up against Saint Louis
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: in his career. They've seen some of them because he
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: was on the Pirates for a while, so he was
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: in their division.
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: Thirty four at bats.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: They have a two ninety four average, eight ninety nine
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: oh ps and a nine to eight striggle walk ratio
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: against him, so his numbers are not good against Saint Louis.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Brendon Donovan is five for six with two double and
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: three RBIs against him, So again, maybe some player prop
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: potential there hits plus runs pluss RBIs.
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: So overall with.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: This game, man is a tough game to gauge. Generally,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: I like Sonny Gray more than I like Ortiz, and
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: the money looks like it is kind of coming in
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: on Saint Louis, with fifty nine percent of tickets seventy
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the cash coming in on them Gray
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: or Saint Louis DAF minus one twenty minus one to nineteen.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: But it doesn't look like the money is coming in
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: on their side. But I would probably lean to the
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: over in this game. It's up from eight to eight
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: and a half year although we see fifty nine percent
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over seventy eight percent of cash
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: on the under. But a move from eight juicey over
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half juicey over to me seems
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: like a fairly significant significant move, So I think the
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: money might actually be coming in on the over. And again,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Sonny Gray struggles on the road or Keyes, even though
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: he's better at home, his numbers are not good against
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis, and I don't I just don't generally like him,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: so I could see this game going over and again.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Both teams did play yesterday, so the Bullpens are not
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: in the most rested form here, so could be an
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: over game there That might be the best lean in
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: that game. Don't want to play it though. Toronto at
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: Boston My Red Sox, My Red sucks. I mean, this
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: is just not good for the Red Sox. Man, they
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: keep losing close games. They actually have a positive run
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: differential on the season, yet losing record, which doesn't usually happen,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: and they just got swept by a team that has
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: a ridiculous loser. Like I think the Red Sox are
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: like plus ten in run differential or something something around there,
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: and Anaheim's like minus forty something in run differential, and
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: yet Anaheim just swept them. It's ridiculous. So Anaheim is
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: a lot worse than the record looks. Red Sox are
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: better than the record looks, at least according to that.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: But anyway, Toronto played yesterday, as we said, they beat Cleveland,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: but they pretty much saved their whole bullpen because Goussman
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: almost went the full complete game there for them.
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: So Toronto's bullpen is rested.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: He Red Sox are returning from the Pacific Coast, so
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: that's not a great spot for the Red Sox year.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: So even though Toronto played yesterday, I still don't think
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: the rest advantage is very strong for the Red Sox.
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Beaus Again, they were just on the road for three
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: series on the Pacific Coast and now returning home from that,
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: it's usually a distraction spot. Man, when you return home
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: for a road trip, you got to get your family
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: affairs back in order, you got to get back to
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: home life. It can be a distraction. And I think
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: that's the spot that the Red Sox are in, so
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: I think the spot is actually better for Toronto, even
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: though they played yesterday. Jose Barrios is pitching for Toronto
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: three point five one ERA, one point two four WHIP.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty consistent for them. You pretty much know
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: what you're gonna get home. Road splits are about the same.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I used been pitching decently this month with a two
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: point five two ERA, although sixteen to eight strike a
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: walk ratio isn't that great, not a really high strikeout rate.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: But Toronto has won.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: Three of his four appearances, and the one bad start
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: that he made was facing Philadelphia for a second time
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: in an eleven day span, so Philadelphia had had to
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: figure him out the next time, and it was on
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: the road, so you can kind of explain why he
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: did poorly in that game. Uh, Brios, Yeah, the Red
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Sox are familiar with him, but the Red Sox tend
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: to struggle against Barrios in ninety three at bats. He
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: has a twenty seven to two strikeout walk ratio against
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: them two twenty six average against his six forty oh ps.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: So Barrios has basically mowed down the entire Red Sox
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: lineup except for Jared Duran, who's ten for twenty one
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: with five doubles and three zero runs against. So so,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: if you want player props, Duran specifically Rex Barrios and
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: the rest of the Red Sox.
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: Lineup does absolutely nothing against him. And it was the case.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: I actually saw the Red Sox go up against Barrios
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: when I went last year. I went to a game
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: in Brios pitch well and Jaron Durant hit a home
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: run in that game and the Red Sox loss. So
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: maybe it's gonna be more of the same here. Brian
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Beao is pitching for the Red Sox. I still don't
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: trust this guy, even though he's been pitching a little
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: bit better. Three point three to one ERA looks good,
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: but a one point four to one whip is still
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: wait too high. Home road splits are not really that significant,
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: but this month he actually has been pretty good, with
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: a two point four to ninety and twenty two to
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: seven streke a walk ratio, so he actually hasn't a
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: bitch better. He actually has an alum more than three
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: in runs at a start going all the way back
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: to May eighteenth against Atlanta.
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: Actually did well against the Yankees.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: Is in this recent stretch as well, the Red Sox
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: have lost four of his last five starts and six
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: of his last eight, so the Red Sox don't do
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: that well behind him. He still does put too many
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: guys on base, and against Toronto he does not have
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: good numbers in ninety four career bats a three nineteen
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: average allowed in eight eighty three oh ps, twenty four
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: to eight streke a walk ratio, so Bao does not
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: have the matchup edge in this game.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: So I probably lean to Toronto slightly in this game.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: But again the market is saying fuck you to me
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: and disagreeing with me completely, so I'm not giving this
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: out as a play. But fifty four percent of tickets
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: are on Toronto, eighty seven percent of the casual the
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are run one ten to minus one sixteen.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: I think maybe it's just because Toronto played yesterday. I
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: don't really understand, man, because I think Barrios has the
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: upper hand here.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: Toronto has a better bullpen and they really.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: Didn't use any of it yesterday, so Toronto has those
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: advantages there. The matchup looks like it definitely favors Barrios
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: here Toronto. Yeah, I mean, I don't know what else
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: to say about it, but yeah, I don't really see
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: why the market is doing that other than the fact
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: that maybe the professionals are starting to actually buy.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: Into Bayo a little bit.
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: And I don't know, man, your guess is as good
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: as mine pretty much on that one. And maybe they
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: just think the Red Sox are a better team than
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: the record indicates. I don't get it, don't understand it.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is at Atlanta here. Both teams played yesterday. Philadelphia
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: just got swept by Houston, so it's probably they're probably
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: gonna be fine with getting out of there and going
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: somewhere else, going out to Atlanta here. Atlanta is returned
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: on from a road trip and they just had a
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: big series against the Mets, So I do think Atlanta
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: is in a worse spot here. Long road trip. We're
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: not a long road trip, but they did go to
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Miami and the Mets for seven games.
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: Here, so they stayed on the East Coast.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: But still I think at Lanta is in a bit
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: more of a bad spot here, because again, you get
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: back to family life a little bit. Sure you're gonna
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: be focused against Philadelphia, You're not gonna be totally distracted
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: with Philadelphia coming into your place.
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: But I still think the return home spot does.
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: Add that little bit of a disadvantage there, a little
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: bit of a letdown spot coming up, or hangover spot
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: coming up that series against the Mets. Philadelphia might be
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit more pissed coming off getting swept in
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: an extremely low scoring series against Houston. Philadelphia's bats might
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: finally do something in this game. We have a high
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: total here. Mick Abels pitching for a Philly I've tried
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: to ride him a couple of times here, not in
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: the gay way, but I've tried to play on his
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: I've tried to play on the Phillies with him starting
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: a couple of times, and I think I was right.
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: Once wrong once.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: He's been pretty good though in his rookie season three
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: point four to seven ERA, one point one to six WIP.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: But I know some of the analytics guys don't love
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: his analytics. He's actually been better on the road too,
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: with a one point seven to four ERA on the
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: road this year in two starts. His last start was
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: his worst.
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: One where he only went three innings.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: He have four home runs in that game against the Mets,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: but maybe that was a little bit of a fluke.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: But again, the analytics guys worry about him because he's
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: given up hard contact. He's allowed seven home runs this
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: month and he was in two specific starts, so they
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: were both at home though, against the Cubs and the Mets,
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: And we know both of those teams can hit. The
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Braves can hit as well, but they're not as good
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: of an offense as those two teams, so I think
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: he is actually stepping down in class a little bit. Overall,
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: he has an eighteen to four strike a walk ratio,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: which isn't that bad. He's just giving up too much
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: hard contact, man, so he's got to try to limit that.
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: But of course the Braves had never seen it before.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: So you have a guy that does have decent stuff
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: and he's been better.
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: On the road. Abel might have a little bit of
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: an advantage in this one.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: Man. Although Philadelphia's bullpen is not very good Atlanta's bullpen
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: not great, but a little bit better than Philadelphia. So
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: I do think Atlanta does have a little bit of
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge, but I don't think they have to
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: starting pitching edge. Bryce Elder is pitching for Atlanta.
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: He's not great.
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: Four point seven to seven ERA, one point three to
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: three whip. He's been a little bit better at home
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: with a four point four ERA, but still not terrific.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: This month he has a five point three to two
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: ERA and those twenty two to seven string a walk
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: rat sho doesn't look that bad. He had one start
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: we blew away San Francisco with twelve strikeouts, and his
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: other three starts have not been very good, going five
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: and a third innings or fewer and allowing three earned
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: runs or more in all of them and walking at
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: least one in all three and at least three and
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: two of the three. So he's not really pitching that
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: well right now, especially when you consider that the last
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: two starts were against Colorado at home and Miami, and
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: you gave up nine earned runs in whatever that is
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: eight and two thirds in seventeen hits, two home runs
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: and four walks compared to six strikeouts and those two
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: starts combined, that's not a good sign. Even though he
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: is a ground ball pitcher, so that's actually a good sign.
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: Ground Ball pitchers that have like metrics that don't look
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: that good usually pitch a little bit better. But still,
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: when you got hammered by a bad Rockies offense at
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: your home stadium, not at course Field, and then you
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: got hammered again by a bad Miami offense, he's not
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: a good forum right now. Up against they are facing
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Philly right forty eight bats against Philly, has a nine
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: to six strike a walk ratio is not that good.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: He's a lot three home runs, but all of them
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: are Castellanos, who's three for six or three on runs,
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: so player prop alert there. He's a lot of two
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: fifty average which is in that bad, but an eight
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: to twenty three ohps to Philly, which is not great.
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: So I'm probably lean to Philadelphia in that game. I
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: don't quite want to do it. Give it out as
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: a play, and the money is all over Atlanta, so
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: again the market disagrees with me. I'm disagreeing with the
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: market all over the place here, trying to be really
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: selective with the plays that I actually give out here, though,
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: Atlanta up for minus one forty to minus one sixty nine.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Some huge money moving on Atlanta there, So I guess
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: it looks like the professional betters don't think much of
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: Mick abel Man. Maybe I think a little bit more
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: of them than than they do. Fifty one percent of
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: tickets ninety three percent of the cash coming in on
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: UH Atlanta.
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: So the money is coming in on Atlanta.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: And towards the over here fifty five percent of tickets
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: on the under, sixty four percent of cash on the over.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: I kind of agree with the over because we just.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: Saw Philadelphia and Atlanta play multiple low scoring games. I
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: think we could see potentially both pitchers could struggle a
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: little bit here, and I don't like either bullpen that much,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: and both teams did play yesterday, so I do agree
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: with the over in that game, but I do not
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: agree with the money that's coming in on the Atlanta side.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: J C. What's up? Man? All right?
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: We got uh San Francisco at the White Sox. I
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: actually like the White Sox in this game, man. San
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: Francisco just played a ridiculous game yesterday and now they're
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: having to travel with no time off from the Pacific
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Coast to Chicago, while Chicago is staying in Chicago and
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: had the day off yesterday, So the rest advantage is
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: very much on the side of the White Sox.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: Granted, yes, San.
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: Francisco is starting a road trip, so a lot of
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: times you are focused to start a road trip. And
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: San Francisco did lose embarrassingly twelve to five yesterday to
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: the Marlins. But one thing that does mean is that
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: San Francisco had to use a lot of their bullpend.
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: They've used a lot of their bullpend a couple of
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: games in a row Man, So even though San Francisco
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: has a good bullpend, their bullpend has been really kind
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: of struggling recently. They've been using their bullpend too much
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: and they've been giving up some runs, including to a
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: bad Miami offense. So I don't I don't love San
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: Francisco in this one at all.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: Again, with the travel disadvantage, the rest disadvantage, I don't
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: know how focused you're gonna be really to start a
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: road trip against a bad White Sox team. Landing Route
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: is pitching for San Francisco today. Three point six to
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: seventy arra is good, but a one point four to
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: whip is not good. He has some really good breaking stuff,
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: but it's been not great. He's been walking a lot
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: of guys. He's era on the road is horrific five
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: point one four road era, so he's been a lot
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: worse on the road this month. Four point oh five
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: era is okay, but a fourteen to twelve strang a
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: walk ratio is certainly not okay, and that is a
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: really bad ratio. Granted, Yeah, his one really bad start
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: this month was against the Dodgers on the road, so
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: maybe you give him a pass for that, but he's
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: still walking way too many guys this month.
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: Not a good sign.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: Up against the White Sox, they've never seen him before
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: for the most part, though, two batters have seen him before.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: They're zero for two with a walk and two strikeouts.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: But I don't know, man, so you have route. He's
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: in bad form, but he's facing a bad offense here
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: that hasn't seen him before, so it's like which one
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: of those is gonna win out. That's why I don't
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: want to actually bet on this or give it out
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: as a play because it's hard to tell. And he
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: is up against Aaron Savale who isn't really pitching that
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: well either. He has a five point zero three ERA
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: one point four to seven WHIP on the season between
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: pitching with Milwaukee and the White White Sox. With the
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: White Sox, the White Socks have lost both of his starts.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: He only has a six to five strike a walk
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: ratio with them. He allowed seven earned runs in twelve
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: innings and fifteen hits alouts. Not great at Texas and
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: at Toronto, so Toronto's an okay lineup. Texas's lineup not
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: very good, So not a good sign that Savali struggled
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: against those two teams. Especially Texas was a team that
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: didn't even bring them up to their major league team
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: this year and then they just got rid of them,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: so I thought he would have been pumped to face them,
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: but they still didn't win that game.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: So I don't love Savale in this one either.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: Although the White Sox they do have the rest edge here,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: but the White Socks do have a bad bullpend, so
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: it's like you have an unrested Giants bullpen against a
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: bad White Sox bullpen, so that kind of negates itself.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: And then Savale against San Francisco, he does actually have
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: good numbers against them, though thirty six at bats nine
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: to five straggle walk ratio is not that good, but
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Devers does have three of the walks one sixty seven
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: average five to seventy four ops. So Savali actually does
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: have good numbers against the Giants specifically, I do think
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: that's still the way to lean though, given how the
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: situation lines up. San Francisco is very public ninety one
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, only eighty three percent of the cash,
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: and the line is moving against them down for mist
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: one fifty five to minus one forty seven. So yeah,
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: I would I would lean to San Franci excuse me,
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: to the White Sox in that game, I would grab
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: the White Sox Andrew, what's up, man, I would uh yeah,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: grab the White Sox as a home underdog in that one.
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: Uh probably just full game, just given the situation there,
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: that is the way that I would look there. And
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: remember San Francisco's offense has been pretty bad for a
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: while for the most part, so you're probably looking at Yeah,
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're an offense that doesn't have that
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: much of an advantage over a bad White Sox offense.
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: Seattle at Texas.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: This is a game I'm gonna recommend to play on,
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: and that's under the total seven and a half. I
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: found seven and a half at minus one ten at
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: MGM man in Massachusetts.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: MGM.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Hopefully they don't ban me just for even saying this,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: but MGM seems to lag behind some of the other
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: Massachusetts books where the money looked like it was coming
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: in on the under and driving this thing down.
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: And I definitely agree with the under here.
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: Obviously money is coming in on Seattle as well, but
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: I'm focused on the total here. It's gone down from
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: eight juice to under seven and a half juicy. The
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: under now is sixty nine percent of tickets on the
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: under and ninety six percent of the cash on the under,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: so the money looks like it's.
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: Agreeing with me.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: I obviously agree with that money coming in in Seattle
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: as well, sixty percent of the cash with fifty nine
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on Texas, so the public kind of
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: likes Texas yere. But the line is flip from plus
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: one to two to minus one eleven on the Seattle side.
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: I'm not quite sure that I agree with that, because
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: I do think Eavaldi is a little bit better than
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: Gilbert here in the spot. But we'll talk about it
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: right now though. So both teams do a pretty good bullpens.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Seattle played yesterday, which maybe is a little bit of
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: a concern, but it was a blowout game, so Seattle
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: actually did not really tax their yesterday. Hancock did okay
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: in the game and then Pop got popped.
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: And then they just kind of, I think they kind
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: of just let it happen and then they only used
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: two other relievers.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: So Seattle didn't really use their best relievers yesterday. Texas
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: didn't even play yesterday, So we have two decent bullpens
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: that are decently rested coming into this game. So that's
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: a good way to start. Logan Gilbert pitching for Seattle here.
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: He is a three point one to two ERA and
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: point eight nine whip this year, which is good.
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: The one thing that's a little bit worrisome is that
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: he's bad on the road five point five to nine
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: road ERA. I get that he's not been good on
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: the road, but I mean you look at some of
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: his road starts here.
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: He's only had two all season, and one of them
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: was his.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Last outing against the Cubs, where he still had a
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: six nothing strike a walk ratio, gave up three home
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: runs and still held them a four runs, So I
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: wouldn't even actually say that that was that bad of
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: a start. So we're looking at a small sample size
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: for him on the road, as most of his starts
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: have coming home and he is facing the lesser offense.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: He faced Toronto, didn't do that well in that game.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: He's still a high strikeout rate nine to two strikele
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: walk ratio in that game against Toronto.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: Has still limited them to two runs in four and
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: two thirds.
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: So he was escaping like limiting the damage in those
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: two starts. But Toronto Chicago Cubs, they're both better offenses.
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: In Texas, he faced Texas already, so yeah, Texas is
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: recently familiar with him, but they're already familiar with him.
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: He did well against him for the most part, five
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: innings won and runs, seven strikeouts, one walk. I think
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: he might do well again here, man. I think his
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: roadyra there's not a whole lot that you can take
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: away from that. Against Texas, he has nice numbers, huge
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: sample size. Even though they're really familiar with him, they
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: have not done well against him. One hundred and sixty
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: seven at bats forty seven to fourteen strikele walk ratio.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: So yeah, the walk numbers a little bit high, but
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: he saw him to a one sixty eight average and
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: five point fifty five ohps. So I think that Gilbert
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: does match up well here, and he's going up against Eavaldi,
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: who is coming off the DL. He's not pitched for
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: a month, exactly a month. His last appearance was Mate
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: twenty seventh against Toronto and he got knocked out of
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: the game. But Eavaldi has been excellent this year. He's
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: a lot more than two earned runs once all season,
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: has a one point five to six point eight one whip. Now,
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: the problem is the one thing you have to worry
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: about is is he gonna like struggle coming back from
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: the DL. But I think you get a little bit
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: more value when a veteran pitcher like this is coming
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: off the DL, because you kind of worry about, well,
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: you know, one thing to really worry about is how
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: many innings is he gonna go? But because he's a
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: veteran like this, I think that's not as much of
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: a concern. I think they might just unleashow him. You
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: do have to go look and see what his rehab
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: starts looked like and by the way, before his start
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: where he got hurt, he had one hundred and five
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: pitch performance where he did really well against the Yankees
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: on the roads. That might have kind of taken something
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: out of him and maybe kind of led to.
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: The injury situation.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: I don't really know, but I think he's gonna be
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: a lot better prepared here for this game against Seattle.
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: He did pitch against Seattle earlier this year, actually did
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: mediocre five innings, strikeouts, no walks, a lot of home
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: run at Seattle pitcher friendly park, allowed tour and runs.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: It was still a decent start though, But overall, Yeah,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: I like Evaldi here. His home road splits are pretty insignificant,
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: and his career up against Seattle. Of course, he's had
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: a long career, so we got a lot of at
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: bats here, one hundred eleven at bats. He has done
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: pretty well against him. A thirty three to five strike
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: at walk ratio is really good. Two sixteen average allowed
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: and six eight ops allowed. A couple of guys have
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: hit him well, just Polanco five for eleven, Raleigh's done
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: okay four for fourteen in the home run and Rodriguez
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: Julio Rodriguez five or sixteen in the home run, but still,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's able to get through this lineup, strike
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: guys out. I think Evaldi will be fine returning from
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: the DL. I mean, I didn't look to see what
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: his rehab starts looked like, but with him, I.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: Don't even know if we really need to.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, the money looks like it's agreeing with me,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: although the money does look like it's coming in on Seattle,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: which is kind of indicating that maybe the professionals thinking evolved.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: He might ruggle a little bit here, but even if
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: he's out of the game a little bit or only,
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: we're getting a rested, pretty good Texas bullpen in this
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: game as well, so I think that helps the under
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: as well.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna go under the total in that game.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: I like how the starting pitching matchup lines up. Houston
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: is hosting the Chicago Cubs. Both teams played yesterday. Houston's
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: staying at home kind of riding the high off of
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: the sweep of Philadelphia, but Chicago is also a really
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: good team, so I don't know if Houston's really gonna
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: be in like a letdown spot here with the Cubs
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: coming into their place. Cubs coming up beating Saint Louis.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: They just had a pretty big divisional series there and
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: now going to Houston, So both teams are kind of coming.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: Off big series, big games, and.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: Both teams kind of putting a similar starter out there
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: right now, man, which is kind of interesting. The Cubs
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: use a lot of their bullpen yesterday, so I think
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: Houston has a bullpen edge here. Houston does have the
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: better bullpen, and they used a little bit of it yesterday,
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: but Chicago used more of their bullpen yesterday and it
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: is the lesser of the two bullpens, So I think
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: Houston does get the bullpen edge, and I think they
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: may have the starting pitching edge too. Is Cad Horton
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: is pitching four the Cubs, not Scott Horton, Although maybe
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: maybe Cad Horton will will write about I don't know,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: maybe he'll write about foreign policy at some point.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: Who knows.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: Three point seven to three ERA one point two to
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: nine whip. That whip is a little bit higher than
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: you'd like to see. He's been a little bit worse
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: on the road four point one two ERA on the
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: road this month three point four to eighty RA fifteen
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: to six trial walk ratio not that bad. He's actually
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: only allowed more than three earned runs once all season.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: It was at Detroit, which is a pretty difficult task
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: to pitch there. Although last outing he didn't last five
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: innings and he allowed three earned runs against Seattle six runs,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: but the defense definitely hurt him a little bit behind
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: him in that game. Horton overall has been fairly good, though,
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: and this is gonna be Horton. Here's a Houston I
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: guess in this game. Houston has never actually faced him before,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: so Horton might have a little bit of an edge
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: there with the fact that the Astros have never faced
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: him before. Astros have Brandon Walter pitching. He's been surprisingly
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: good this year three point eighty RA, one point one whip.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: He's been better at home significantly one point three to
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: five home YI, so that's a good sign too. Last
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: Auti gave up seven runs at Anaheim, which is kind
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: of ridiculous. Prior to that, he allowed zero two and
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: one are in run in the previous starts. But he's
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: still had six strikeouts in one walk in that game
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim, so it wasn't maybe quite as bad as
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: it looked.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: He has a twenty five to.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: Two strike a walk ratio over the course of the season,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: but he's alloted four home runs, which is too many
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: home runs so far, so he's got to get that
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: under control. And Houston has lost three of his four starts,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: but he's been fairly good. Man, I mean, most of
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: his numbers look pretty good, although against the Cubs they're
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: two for four off the though Halp has both of
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: the hits two for.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: Two, so not a whole lot to see.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: They are five hundred average one thousand ops, but a
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: very small sample size, so most of the Cubs lineup
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: has not seen Walter before. So Man, for this game,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: I would probably say first five inning under just because
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: you're looking at two starting pitchers that are just unfamiliar
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: to the opposing hitters.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: Money's coming in on Houston, and I don't disagree with
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: that either. I think Walter is the preferred starter over Horton.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: Plus I think Houston has the better bullpen and the
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: bullpen that it's in better shape right now. Cubs do have
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: the better offense, but public likes offense, so I consider
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: offense to be a little bit less important than the pitching.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: My apologies for that.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: Houston up for minus one of three to minus won
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: ten sixty six percent of the cash on Houston, sixty
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: six percent of tickets on the Cubs sixty six six six.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: That's not good. But the public is on the Cubs.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: The actual money looks like it's on Houston.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: Oh thank you. Now it's sixty five. All right, now,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: we're better.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: Total are all the way down from nine juice to
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: the under, eight and a half juice to the under.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: Sixty percent of tickets on the over, but seventy nine
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: sending the couch on the under. Of course, the public's
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: gonna look towards an over in a Cubs game, but
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: I think the under is probably the way to look
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: in this game. And I would go first five innings
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: because I don't really want to deal with the Cubs
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: bullpen in this one.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: So probably under four or so in the first or
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: four and a.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: Half, maybe even in the first five, probably the way
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: to look there. Colorado is starting a road trip, coming
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: off a series against the Dodgers where they got swept
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: at home, because of course they did. Colorado starting a
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: road trip could be you know, a focused spot, but
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: coming off a series against the Dodgers could be a
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: little bit of a hangover spot as well. They're having
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: to go to Milwaukee, and we don't even know Colorado's
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: starting pitcher is gonna be. So this is probably gonna
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: be a mess for Colorado here. We have no idea
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: what they're gonna do. Milwaukee, they had yesterday off and
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: they're staying at home against Pittsburgh. They're coming off what
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: was a pretty hyped game man with mis Zierowski against Skeens.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: So I think Milwaukee could be in a little bit
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: of kind of a letdown spot as well against that
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: big game where they face Ski. So I don't know,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: but King Tana is gonna be pitching for Milwaukee. His
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: two point nine to eighty RA looks really good, but
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: a one point four whip tells you a different story.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: He has not been keeping guys off the bases. He
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: has a bad five point eight five ERA at home,
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: so he's been a lot worse at home this month.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: Three point five four ERA looks good, but he's walked
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: more batters than he struck out. Even though my Milwaukee excuse,
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: he has won three of his four starts this month,
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: including against Philadelphia and San Diego. He has fourteen walks
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: and twelve strikeouts. That is not a good sign. I
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: can't keep getting away with walking that many guys. Man
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: fourteen walks in twenty and a third innings plus twenty hits.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: On top of that, I don't know how he keeps escaping.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: He gave it five runs against Saint Louis, but somehow
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: escaped in the other games against Minnesota, San Diego, and Philly.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: I don't get it.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: I think Kittana is gonna regress a little bit up
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: against the Rockies, though specifically he has good numbers.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is a bad office.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: He's facing sixty seven at bats won sixty four average,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: five ninety seven ops, fifteen straightouts to eight walks, but
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: seven of the walks are ourc so uh. The walks
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: haven't been that bad against Colorado, So I think Kintana
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: at least does have a decent match up here. So
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure that I expect him to do really
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: poorly in this game. Specifically, Milwaukee is of course a
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: big favorite, down for min two twenty five to minus
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: two to ten. Of course, you're gonna always pay a
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: price to fade Colorado because they're so bad. I wouldn't
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: do it though, in this game, I don't really want
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: any part of Kintana with how he's been pitching, but
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: he does match up well at least against Colorado, so
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: probably I guess the way that I would see this
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: is maybe, well, I don't even know, man, I don't
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: even know if I want to go with Milwaukee over
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: their team total because they hit worse at home. They're
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: coming off that big game where they face Paull Skimes
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: and we don't even know who Colorado's pitcher is gonna be,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: so I don't even know if I want to do
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: that either. So yeah, it's gonna be its total stay away.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if I really have a lean
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: in that one. Dodgers are going to Kansas City, and
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: this is my final play I'm gonna give. This is
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: one that people are not gonna like, and that is
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: Kansas City money line.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, nobody is gonna want to do this, man.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: Royals have been playing bad baseball.
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: They can't score. We know this, I mean, their offense
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: is bad. But I think this sets up actually pretty
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: nicely for Kansas City here, man, even though I know
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: We're jumping in front of a losing streak here in
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: Kansas City, a losing train.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: They've lost five games in a row. But before that
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: they had won four games in a row.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I know, before that they lost a bunch
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: of games in a row. They were a very streaky team.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: Got to try to decide when is that streak gonna end?
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: Maybe it'll be now, man, after a terrible series against
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. They're staying at home, so I mean, you
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: don't want to sit around wallow in. It's it'd be
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: better if they went on the road. But still, you
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: got totally embarrassing. You scored one run in an entire series,
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: and you haven't scored for three days now.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: They got shut out two games in a row.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: I think that's gonna spark something, man, spark some focus here.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: So I think a change of opponent I think is
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: gonna help here for the Royals. I think they may
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: be able to bust that streak here. Man, I think
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for the Dodgers. I mean, yeah,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: they're coming off sweep in Colorado, like who cares? But
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: they are coming in down out of elevation to face
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: Kansas City off of a divisional series. I don't really
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: know the Kansas City is gonna draw that much focus
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: from the Dodgers here in Kansas City, even though they
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: played yesterday, they used a little bit of their bullpen,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: and I think more of the bullpen got used by
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers here, So the Dodgers did have to use
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: some of their high leverage relief pitchers here to finish
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: the game off yesterday, only winning three to one yesterday.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: And it was a good start for Clayton Kershaw, so
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: it's good to see that he's gonna be that. He
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: looks like he's bouncing back here. But we don't have
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw on them ount here. Man, we have Dustin
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: May who's nowhere near as good. And what we're looking
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: at here at least is that what I'm about to
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: say is that Kansas City has the better starting pitcher here,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: They have the better bullpen. The bullpen's a little bit
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: better off after yesterday because they lost again, so they
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: didn't really use some of their I leverage arms yesterday. Yes,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers have the way better offense, but again, the
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: offense is I think the thing that's the most fadable
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: and that's the thing the public is gonna be on
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: the most. If you want to look at the what
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: the market is doing here, I mean, you have a
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: very public seventy six percent of the tickets on the
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: Dodgers and only fifty nine percent of the cash with
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: reverse line moving down for minus one fifty one forty five,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: it almost looks like a cheap price, right Like this
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: Dodgers team, it's one of the best teams in baseball.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: They're really hot right now, facing this Royals team that
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: can't score and can't win. Who in their right mind
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: is gonna play on Kansas City here? Well as I
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: like to say, I'm not in my right mind, Kansas
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: City I think is a strong play here. I mean,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: I know, I like I mentioned these other underdogs, ugly
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: underdogs that I like, Todame, Pittsburgh and the White Sox.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: I think Kansas City is the best of the three
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: because their starting pitcher is actually good. Uh, Dustin May,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: I don't think is good for the Dodgers. Four point
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: four to sixtyra one point three to whip not great.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: He's been significantly worse.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: On the road.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: Five point nine nine and four roadyra so that's not
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: a great sign. This month, he has a five point
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: h ninety R and a fourteen to twelve strike a
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, so that's not a good sign either. He's
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: been giving it up this month and he's been walking
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: a lot of guys, putting a lot of guys on base.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: Twelve walks plus.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: Twenty three hits in twenty three innings. You can't keep
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: getting away with that man. So he is not in
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: good form right now. So the splits don't look good
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: for May. Recent form doesn't look good. I know the
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: Royals haven't seen him before, so maybe the Royals will
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: struggle a little bit early on to get to him.
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: I do worry about that a little bit, but Kanna
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: has faced him eight times and is three for eight Offen,
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: which is pretty good May. I mean, he could still
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: struggle just because he's not really that good of a pitcher.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: So I know Royals have really really a bad offense,
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: and I know they're going up against a pitcher that
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: they've never seen him before. But I think May is
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: the much worse of the two. And of course we
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: have a picture of the Dodgers have never seen before
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: Noah Cameron, and he is way better than Dustin May.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: Cameron having a really nice rookie season so far. Two
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: point eight RA.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: Point nine to seven WHIP.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's been a little bit worse at home three
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: point zero nine ERA, but that's still not really bad.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's been pretty good overall.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: His one bad start was against the Yankees, and I
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: know the Dodgers are one of the teams that can
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: hit as well as the Yankees can. But he's still
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: had six strikeouts one walk in that game, and to
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: give up two of them runs against the Yankees, so
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: he still in a way kind of limited the damage.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: And yes, I know Kansas City has lost almost all
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: of his games, have lost six out of his eight
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: games because Kansas City can't hit at all.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: I get that, but I think this might be the
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: game where they do it. Man.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: Of course, the Dodgers have never seen Cameron before. Overall
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: the season, thirty four to fifteen straggle walk ratio pretty good.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, his strikeout rates not high.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: Doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but he does
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: not put a lot of guys on base, well below
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: one hit per inning thirty one hits in forty seven
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: to two thirds in his pitch eighteen to seven strike
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: out walk race year this month.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: I mean I worried a little bit. The walked three guys.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: In the last outing at San Diego, but he still
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: only allowed two runs. I mean, you can give him
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: a pass maybe for one start where he was a
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: little bit wild, and not say he's in like terrible
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: form yet or anything.
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 2: Three point two seventy are this month, So I'm gonna
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: do it.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna, well, maybe not do it as far as
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: like actual bedding, because I don't think I'm gonna like
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: risk any of my money right now, trying to be
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: a very risk averse right now. But I think this
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: is a solid play man on Kansas City.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: It's one of those ones.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: You know, me with my contrarianism, absolutely nobody's gonna want
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: to do that. So it looks like an absolutely insane
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: idea to play Kansas City. But you're getting a nice
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: money line price, and like I just explained, I think
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: there are reasons to grab them as a home underdog there.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: So Kansas City, that's right, Zach, just in time. There
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: wasn't letting me bring it up. Score one run, baby,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: let's go. We're gonna need more than one run for them,
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: probably to beat the Dodgers, but hopefully it happens. We
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: have Washington at Anaheim here. Anaheim just swept the Red
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: Sox head yes yesterday off and now they're staying at home.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: Washington also had yesterday off, and I believe they are
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: coming in from San Diego, so Washington is.
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: Already adjusted to the Pacific time zone.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: Both teams had yesterday off, so and then we're looking
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: at two really, really disgustingly bad bullpens. So both bullpens
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: are terrible, but both teams did have yesterday off, so
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: they're kind of conflicting factors there towards like the over
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: and under there, because I think with teams have yesterday off,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: I like to look towards an under. But with terrible bullpens,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: obviously you want to look towards an over. But does
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: that mean you want to go like first five inning under?
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure I really think so. Jake Irvin is
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Nats. He's okay, one point two to
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: three whip four point one eight ERA. He's been worse
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: on the road four point seven to ninety R on
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: the road. That's not great. This month five point oh
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: six era not that good nineteen to six strike out
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: walk ratios. Okay, though last outing he actually did really
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: well against the Dodgers seven k's, no walk, five and
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: a third innings pitch gave up two of them runs,
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: but he only allowed those two runs and that was it.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: So his team actually won behind him against the Dodgers.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: That's at least a decent sign he'd been pitching a
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: bit better, like his team had been winning behind him
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: for a while, and then he hit a rough stretch.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: But he did face the Cubs, the Mets, I mean,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: not easy teams to face, so it's kind of hard.
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: To gauge w we're gonna get out of Irvin here Man.
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say he's actually in really terrible form. His
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: numbers were okay, He's not good on the road. Anaheim
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: has not seen a whole lot of him. Only Darneault
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: and Wade Junior have ever seen him before. They're four
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: for fourteen off in lifetime two eighty six average six
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: to sixty one oh ps with a couple of walks
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: four strikeouts in there. There's not a whole lot to
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: gather from that either, other than the fact that Anaheim's
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: offense is not that familiar with Irvin. Soriano is pitching
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: for Anaheim here, and he has actually been good. Hold on,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: let me, I usually bring it up in a separate tab.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: My mistake.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: Soriano is actually pitching a little bit better right now.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: His ERA is good. On the season, three point three
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: nine and one point four to two whip is terrible.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: He's been worse at home to four point two sixty
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: ra at home, so you do have to take all
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: that into account. So both pitchers are on the wrong
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: side of the splits here. But Anaheim has won three
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: straight games behind Soriano. He's got at least six and
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: two thirds in all three of those starts, pitching quite well,
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: and double digit strikeouts in two of them. He has
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: a what is that a twenty eight to six strikeout
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: walk ratio over those three starts, including a shutout for
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: seven innings against the Yankees on the road. That is crazy.
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: So Soriano, He's actually in really good form right now.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: I only allowed two runs over that span of twenty
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: and two thirds innings pitched.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: Soriano's in very good form right now. Over those last
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: three starts up against Washington, He has good numbers as well,
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: small sample size of seventeen but zero extra RaSE hits,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: seventeen at bats, zero extra base hits four to one
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 2: strike a walk race, your two thirty five.
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: Batting average allowed to five thirteen obs. Oreano does have
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: a nice matchup against Washington here a little bit.
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 2: The money looks like it's against Anaheim here.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: They're down up for minus one fifty five to fifty seven,
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: but seventy seven percent of tickets and only seventy five
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. So a public Anaheim team here.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: That's crazy, man, I mean, what do we want to
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: do with this game? Because I think Soriano he's in
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: the better form right now, man, I mean, I don't.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: Like the splits for either starting pitcher.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: The money looks like it's coming in on the over
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: a little bit too, with more juice on the eight
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: and a half to the over eighty percent tickets nine
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: to seven percent of catch in the over. I mean,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: the bullpens could let this thing unravel, that's for sure.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: But the starting.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: Pitchers that he both maybe have an okay match up here,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: So maybe a first five inning under actually might be
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: the right lean here.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: And I kind of lean to Anaheim.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: I just think Soriano has been pitching better recently, and
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: I still think Anaheim is probably the better team.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: More Washington.
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: This is Washington is that bad, and Washington's bullpend might
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: be even worse than Anaheim's right now.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: So that's probably the way that I look at it.
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: Maybe like a money line first five innings on I
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: don't even know, man, or maybe even full game on Anaheim,
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: or maybe find a different way to do it. Actually,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: maybe Anaheim over their run total might make sense, but
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: then you're kind of banking on that goes against what
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: I was just saying with maybe arvernill do well. So
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, It's a confusing game. It's why
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: I'm not giving out a play on it. And then
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: finally Arizona against Miami. Arizona's returning on from a long
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: road trip. But they went to Toronto and then into
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: Elevation to Colorado and then back to Chicago, and now
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: they're coming back to Arizona. Could be a bad spot
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: for Arizona here, Man, returning from a road trip like that,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: a long road trip, facing a bad Miami team again,
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: you're gonna be a little bit distracted and Miami is
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: already out West. They just swept San Francisco, which is
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: kind of crazy. But they've won four games in a row,
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: which is I mean, they're on a little bit of
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: a hot streak right now. But maybe they look better
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: than they actually are. Although Miami does have some undervalued
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: pitchers in my opinion here, especially a Cabrera, and maybe
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: if Alcandra is starting to pitch better again, but I
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: don't know if Uri Perez is one of those guys
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: or not. And because Miami played yesterday and Arizona did not,
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: Arizona's in a bad spot because they were turning over
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: a road trip, but Miami did have to use some
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: of their bulpend yesterday in that win over San Francisco.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: So Miami is in the more unrested spot the less
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: rested spot.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: So that's not great for Miami. So I don't really
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: want to jump in on Miami here.
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: Uri Perez is pitching. His numbers aren't good this year,
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: six point one to seventy one point sixty three whip.
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: He's only twenty two years old, and he pitched long
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: long ago. He pitched in the league when he was
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: like nineteen or twenty years old. And he was actually
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: quite good in twenty twenty three, but then I think
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: he had an injury. He's trying to come back from
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 1: that injury. It hasn't really worked out yet, although he does.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, he had six strikeouts in his last outing
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: against the Braves, which might be a decent sign that
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: he's bouncing back a little bit. But he has yet
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: to go five innings in any of his starts. Has
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 1: an eleven to seven strike out walk ratio, which is
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 1: not that great, so they haven't really totally unleashed him yet.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: But he's been inefficient with his pitches too. But the
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: fact that he had six strikeouts in his last down,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: he might at least show that maybe he's going in
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: the right direction here. They had zero strikeouts in the
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: game before that, which is kind of a concern because
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 1: he is a strikeout guy, and that was against some
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: bad Washington lineup, And that start that was the six
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: strikeout start was actually at home, so he's actually been
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse on the road too, although not
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: that significantly. Arizona really has not seen much of him.
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: The only two of their hitters I have ever seen him
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: before in they're zero for four often with a strikeout lifetime.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: So you do have Perez, who is a young guy
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: with decent stuff. Still, we'll see if his stuff is
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: returning here though he's facing a really powerful Arizona offense. Though,
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: although Arizona did just lose I forget his name, one
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: of their best hitters, they lost I forget his name,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: one of their rookie.
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 2: Hitters here. What was his name?
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Carol lost him. So he broke his wrists. So
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: that's gonna impact Arizona's offense a little bit. So tough
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: to gage what we're gonna get here. Man, we don't
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: know what form Perez is really in here. He does
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: have the ability to do good stuff if his like
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 1: form from a couple of years ago returns, and maybe
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: it will, because it is easier for a guy as
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: young as he is to return from that. But he's
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 1: up against Merrill Kelly here, who has been doing well
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: this year three point three to nine ERA one point
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: zero five whip. I feel like this guy just flies
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: under the radar. But he's with Burns on the d
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: l for the rest of the year, which is a
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: huge blow to the Diamondbacks.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: Kelly is actually their best pitcher which is crazy. He's
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: been a little bit better at home too, with a
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: three point h nine homey RA, and he's pitching well
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: this month too. In four starts, Arizona's won three of them,
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: two point two five ERA, twenty nine to seven strike
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio, only allowing six runs and eighteen hits
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: in twenty four innings.
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: Not bad.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: Kelly been pretty decent recently decent recently, yeah, and up
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: against Miami nineteen a bad small sample size me as
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: a five to one strike a walk ratio against him,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: two eleven average and six seventy one ohps because he
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: has allowed one home run to Heesus Sanchez. But other
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: than that, Kelly does match up well against them. Arizona
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: returning on from a road trip could effect they're hitting
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Perez could potentially do something here. I
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: know Arizona's bullpen is bad. Don't want any part of
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: Miami's bullpen either, especially because they're not rested. So I
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: actually think a first five inning under might be the
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: way to look in this game. The money's coming in
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: against Arizona, which that might just be because professionals are playing,
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: you know, in the return home spot there for Arizona.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 2: It is a bad spot for them.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: I don't want to quite give that out as a
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: play though, again because Miami had to play yesterday, Arizona
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: down for minus one ninety five to minus one seventy six,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of tickets, only eighty seven percent of cash.
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: So Miami Arizona excuse.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: He is very public, But it looks like we have
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: pros versus Joe's on the tour here with the Joe's,
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: the public are coming in seventy three percent on the over,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: sevy three percent of tickets, sixty five percent of the
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: cash on the under, and the totals drop from nine
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: juice to the underd to eight and a half juice
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: the under, which is a pretty significant move off of
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: a key number nine as well. Again, I don't want
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: any part of these bullpens, though, So I would go
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 1: under first five innings in that game and hope that
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: Perez is actually gonna do his part, because I think
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: Kelly probably will do his part to keep a bad
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: Miami offense at check. But that's kind of the way
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: that I look. Probably would get under four four and
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: a half in that game. That's uh, that's gonna do it, man.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: So my plays that I've given out today under nine
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay, Baltimore, under seven and a half in Seattle, Texas,
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Royal's money line as the home underdog, plus
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: one thirty.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: Let's get it. That's gonna do it.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: Let's bounce back off of yesterday's atrociousness. I'm still up
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: on the year, by the way for tracking all of
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: my bets here, so.
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: Let's hope that continues. Learn to Toad on Twitter, the
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 2: Gifts send Go is still out there, Towering Toad, but.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: It's not getting any more traction. So I think I'm
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: just gonna thank everybody, thank you guys for the support
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: on that, and I'm just gonna probably close that out.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: As far as far as Tower Gang is concerned.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: I keep repeating myself, but I don't think we know
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: what's gonna happen. I can still sub to the Patreon
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: if you want to get all the old stuff, but
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: of course we are not actively putting out new episodes
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: right now. So yeah, I think that's it man. That's
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: gonna do it for now. And I'm hoping to spruce
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 1: things up here with this channel, maybe start doing more
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: betting content. I'm gonna probably be starting a Patreon that's
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: all things Toad that will maybe include some extra Better
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: Off Dead content. I think it's gonna include some ukulele stuff.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna get my ukulele channel going. I got plans man,
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: so hopefully we're gonna be able to start doing that.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: For now, this is gonna do it. Have a good one, guys.
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out in peace.