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Is Trump Losing a Step? · Pod Save America

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 3: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: On today's show, George Santos lives to lie another day.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump is lapping the field in the early states.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: His Republican rivals in the press are finally starting to
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: point out that the old man has lost a step.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: And RFK Jr. is taking more support from Trump in
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: two new polls. But first, Maga Mike Johnson is living
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: up to the nickname in his first week on the job, Dan.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Even though there is a bipartisan majority in Congress to
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: fund the government, he has decided to start with a
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: bill that would fund $ 14 billion in aid to Israel
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: by making it easier for the richest Americans to cheat
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: on their taxes, which doesn't really fund the aid at all.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: Cutting the IRS budget will add another $ 12. 5 billion to
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: the deficit. Johnson then reportedly told Senate Republicans that he's
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: open to a separate bill that would provide some support
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: for Ukraine, though not as much as President Biden wants,
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: and only if it's paired with beefed up border security.
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: He also wants to blow up the bipartisan budget deal
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: that Biden agreed to with Kevin McCarthy by demanding deeper cuts,
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: which Democrats will never go for, which means there may
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: be a government shutdown in our future.
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: Fun.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: So, Dan, it seems like we're right back to where
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: we were when McCarthy had the job. only with a
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: speaker who cares even less about passing anything and even
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: more about keeping the MAGA base happy. Sure enough, House
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: Republicans had their best week of online fundraising of the
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: cycle since Johnson was elected last week. Was it last week?
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: I can't even remember. What's your read on all this, Dan?
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: I think we knew that whomever the Republicans picked was
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: going to be an unserious, cynical MAGA ass. Like, that's
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: a job requirement. And the only question was, Which unserious,
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: cynical MAGA ass were they going to agree on? And
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: they picked Mike Johnson. And I do think it's worth
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: understanding exactly what he's doing on Israel aid to realize
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: just how cynical and unserious he is. Obviously, we should
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: stipulate he was never going to pass Biden's $ 106 billion
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: appropriations request as written, right? He's Republican. That's not what
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: happens in divided government. He has a right to change it.
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: We can also stipulate that his own politics, both in
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: the country and in the Republican caucus, meant he could
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: not pass Israel aid and Ukraine aid together. And so
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: he was always going to separate that out. So he
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: had a few options at that point. One would be
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: to just pass the $ 14 billion with no cuts, no riders,
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: just pass it as is. He supports what's in it.
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: And that would be consistent with how these things are
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: usually handled, how these emergency aid requests are handled. That's
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: how Mike Johnson certainly voted for them when Donald Trump
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: was president. It's how the COVID packages were handled. It's
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: how the Trump tax cut was handled, which is how
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: we know that Mike Johnson doesn't really care about cuts.
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: So once you add cuts, your choice could be like
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: you've decided on principle, which we know he doesn't really believe,
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: but as principle, we feel like the deficit is too high.
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: We should pay for this. And Democrats held that position
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: when it came to Bush's constant requests of funding for
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. And if that is your
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: actual position, what you could say is, I'm going to
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: find $ 14 billion in largely inoffensive bipartisan cuts. Raising custom fees,
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: finding unused money here, fraud, waste and abuse, all the
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: sort of budget money that's out there. Gimmicks. Gimmicks, really.
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: But that's a way to do it that allows you
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: to have cuts and also have a bill that can
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: pass the House and the Senate. Did he do that?
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: No.
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: He picked $ 14 billion in funding for President Biden's signature
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: legislative agenda. And to do so in a way that
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: it would try and very specifically splinter the Democrats and
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: make this a very, very tough vote for him, which
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: he knows will do two things. It's dead on arrival
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: in the Senate. The president won't sign it. And it
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: means now that it's going to take longer to get
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: the aid to Israel. So he picked the absolute most
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: cynical strategy possible. And it's even dumb because the cuts
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: he picked actually don't reduce the deficit. And still now,
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: even because we know that collecting more taxes from rich
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: people raises money, doesn't lose money. He failed on all
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: of his tests. He's not. It's just it's utterly ridiculous.
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: approach to this.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: Well, so now Democrats have a choice. They are going
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: to have to either vote for a bill that adds
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: to the deficit by making life easier for rich tax
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: cheats or vote against a bill that helps Israel. If
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: I were advising a Democrat in a competitive district, I
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: would tell them to vote against the bill. And then
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: I would run an ad saying that Republicans tried to
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: exploit the crisis in the Middle East as a way
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: to help their rich friends cheat on their taxes. But
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: what would you do? I think that is the.
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: Exact right message that Democrats should be using about this.
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: I think the approach that Hakeem Jeffries will take here
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: is to keep the number of Democratic votes down as
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: much as possible, but give some room to these members
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: of Congress in very tough districts who are going to
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: be under some pressure to vote. Ultimately, I think the
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: significance of voting for this or not voting for this
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: are going to matter close to zero by November. It's
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: like there are a thousand votes now. We also know
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: that facts, if you will, are not a huge part
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: of the Republican message. So whether you vote, if you
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: vote for it, it's not like all of a sudden
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: they're going to say, well, that takes that attack off
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: the table. We'll do something else. But if, you know,
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: I could see the perspective where a small handful of
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: people in very tough districts get a pass to vote
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: for it. And it doesn't really affect the overall outcome
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: because we're just this is all just a dumb dance.
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: It's wasting time in the end because this bill is
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: not becoming law.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: You think that the Democrats in tough districts would be
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: scared of an ad that said you voted against a
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: bill for Israel, even though they could also run an
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: ad saying that this was just a way to help
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: rich people?
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: My general experience is that Democrats in tough districts are
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: scared of their shadow.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: So are they right to be scared of it? Probably not.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: But I imagine they're also under some pressure. The politics
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: are very tricky and very intense right now. And so
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: I just understand, I have no doubt that there's a
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: handful of Democrats who are coming to Akeem Jefferson saying,
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: can we please get a pass to vote for this?
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: Because I'm taking on so much water in so many
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: ways because I'm in a Trump district or it's an
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: incredibly purple district and politics don't feel great for a
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: Democrat right now. I don't want one more brick on
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: the load. And I imagine that there are some people
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: who will give that pass too.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: There's been growing opposition to more support for Ukraine among
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: Republicans in Congress and the public And now Johnson's basically
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: saying it'll only go through if Congress also agrees on
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: border security. That seems highly unlikely to me. What do
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: you think? Can you see a resolution here?
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: No, I can't. This is really, really hard. And there
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: has been a coalition in the Senate led in part
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: by Mitch McConnell to ensure that he can work in
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: a bipartisan way with President Biden and the Senate Democrats
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: to force the House to pass Ukraine aid. That's why
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: he is to date supported keeping Ukraine and Israel aid together.
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: But he is under, from all the reporting I've read,
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: tremendous pressure within his own caucus to back down from that.
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: And it's just we are really in a situation where
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: there's pretty irreconcilable differences between what Republicans would want and
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: what Democrats can agree to. And combined with their, I think,
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: very correct substantive belief that if we do not get
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: more aid to Ukraine, it's going to be a huge
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: win for Putin and put Ukraine's sovereignty at risk.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, I could see Democrats probably going for a
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: little less Ukraine aid than Biden asked for and some
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: extra money for border security. But it doesn't seem like
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: that's what Republicans want. It seems like some Republicans want
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: no aid for Ukraine. Some want a lot less. And
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: then on the border, it doesn't seem like they're just
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: going to be happy with more funding for border security.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: They want policy changes that are going to restrict immigration,
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: which I don't think Democrats will go for.
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: There's already $ 11 billion for beefed up border security funding
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: in the bill Biden asked for, and they've already said
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: no to that because Democrats are open to it because
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: we actually need more funding to manage what's happening down there.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: Based on what we know of one week of MAGA Mike,
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: they're going to specifically demand policies they know splinter Democrats.
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: Not because they're a good policy, not because they actually
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: support him. It is about trying to drive a wedge
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: in the Democratic coalition.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: It's a lot of shit sandwiches coming down the pike.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a real shit sandwich buffet, if you will.
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: It's all of these votes.
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: Okay, well, the House did accomplish something this week. They
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: voted against a motion by several New York Republicans to
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: expel George Santos by a count of 213 to 179,
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: with 24 Republicans voting to expel and 31 Democrats voting
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: not to expel. The House also voted against Marjorie Taylor
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: Greene's motion to censure Rashida Tlaib for speaking at a
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: pro-Palestinian rally at the Capitol. All the Democrats plus 23
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: Republicans voted against the motion to censure. Marge was not happy.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: She said the Republicans who voted against censure were rhinos
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: who have joined the Hamas caucus. She's just lovely. One colleague,
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: one Republican colleague called her a very charming lady. It
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: was a lot of sarcasm there in case you couldn't tell.
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: I love it when you call her Marge.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Marge, yeah, large Marge. Two questions. Why do you think
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: those Democrats voted against expelling Santos? And why do you
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: think those 23 Republicans decided to save Tlaib from that
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: stupid censure?
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: Do you remember how our old boss, Barack Obama, used
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: to say that Democrats are born with a responsibility gene?
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: That even in moments of maximum political opportunity, we feel
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: the need to do the right thing. Most of these Democrats,
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: and I specifically went and looked for Katie Porter, who voted,
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: who's in this primary with two other Democrats, Schiff and
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: Barbara Lee, who voted to expel and she voted against.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: And her argument was that he is deserving of due process.
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: There's an ethics committee investigation, and that should conclude before
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: you take up expulsion, which is a very serious, well-thought-out
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: position that will, frankly, probably get lost in this media environment.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: You know, I read, I did not see Katie's statement.
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: I saw Jamie Raskin's statement. And he said he also
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: voted against expelling. He said, I'm a Constitution guy. The
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: House has expelled five people, three for joining the Confederacy
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: as traitors to the union and two after they were
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: convicted of criminal offenses. Santos has not yet been convicted,
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: nor has he been found guilty of ethics offenses in
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: the House. Bad precedent. He said, I can also think
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: of like four or five House Democrats that Republicans would
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: like to expel without a conviction. And I just don't
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: want to go down that road. I have to say,
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: like reading that statement, I'm somewhat persuaded. I do think
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: it is a dangerous thing to start expelling people from
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Congress with, forget it, even about obviously no conviction, but
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: also like no internal process from the House Ethics Committee
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: that found anything. It's like, we can all wait for this.
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: And even if you want to go pure politics, it
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: does seem like no one's too scared about running against
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: George Santos in 2024. And it seems like some of
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: these New York House Republicans don't put forward the motion
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: to expel him because they're nervous about the politics. And
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: the longer George Santos is in Congress embarrassing them, the
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: worse it is for them and the worse the politics are.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: So I'm not even convinced that it's like the best
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: politics to get him out of Congress right now.
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's right. The point of this resolution
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: put forward by the Republicans was so that they know
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: that this is going to be a huge issue in
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: New York in 2024. Most of them are in districts
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: that Joe Biden won in 2020. And they are deathly
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: afraid of having George Santos be a huge political problem
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: for them. So it's not particularly serious. I agree with you.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: I am broadly persuaded by the idea that on all
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: these things, censure, expelling people from their committees, expelling people
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: from Congress, we've reached a level of ridiculousness and an
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: unseriousness that does not fit with the historical precedence that
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: you want. And we're sort of in a tit for tat. Now,
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: can Democrats unilaterally disarm in this process?
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: No.
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: But on the merits, I think what Raskin and Porter
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: and others said was correct.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: And look, you can say, I'm sure some people are thinking, well,
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: you know, they would do that to us. Do you
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: really think that Republicans would vote not to expel in
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: a situation like that? Like, yeah, maybe. Who knows what
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: they would do? I do know that 23 Republicans found
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: it within themselves not to censure Rashida Tlaib when they
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: could have easily done that. And so there's some that
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: have a responsibility gene somewhere left in their bodies. But
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: I also think that, like, if we're going to be
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: the party about democracy and rule of law, then we
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: should like wait until someone's convicted to expel them or
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: at the very least is found guilty within a house
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: ethics process. Because like, I think George Santos is a
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: fucking joke. I think it's very likely he's going to
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: be found guilty. There's a lot of charges, a lot
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: of evidence, but again, like we can't, we can't adjudicate
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: these things through the press and social media and just
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: our feelings about it. Like you actually do need a
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: process before you start kicking people out of Congress.
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: The podcast where we all came to argue that George
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: Santos should stay in Congress.
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: If there's one thing you get from this podcast today,
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: it's that George Santos should.
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: Stay in Congress. Make that the YouTube title, Elijah.
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: We're going to see that clip online. Okay. We'll be
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: right back with more news. But before we go to break,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: a few quick housekeeping notes. Some pretty cool news. This weekend,
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: we're headed to Chicago to interview our old boss, Barack Obama,
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: on the 15-year anniversary of his 2008 election. I feel old, Dan.
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: You do. That was 15 years ago.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: I know. I'm staying across the street from the old
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: Campaign HQ, and I'm walking slower down those streets these days.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: I know. I'm heading there after this. We'll be chatting
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: with the former president about what's at stake in 2024,
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: how to strengthen our democracy, and which of us he
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: still thinks about the most. I did not read that
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: until just now. Follow Pod Save America on Instagram, TikTok,
• 14:11
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• 14:14
  Speaker 2: from our interview and catch the full conversation on next
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: Tuesday's pod. Also, Pod Save America tickets for our November
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• 14:25
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• 14:29
  Speaker 2: calling us the Mardi Gras of political podcast recordings. Where
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: does this come from? Here's the good news. We'll be
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: joined by Tim Miller, our pal Tim Miller, guest Devante Lewis,
• 14:38
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• 14:41
  Speaker 2: is what it says here. Tickets are going fast.
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  Speaker 3: Sure, I'll throw beads.
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  Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about 2024. In the Republican primary,
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  Speaker 2: two new early state polls show an incredibly tight race
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  Speaker 2: for second place. With just 74 days to go until
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: the Iowa caucuses, the Des Moines Register poll, which is
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: the very best in the business, maybe the most accurate
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: poll in the entire country, shows Trump at 43%, DeSantis
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: at 16%, Haley also at 16%, Tim Scott at 7%,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: and Christie and Vivek at 4%, and a CNN poll
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: of South Carolina shows Trump at 53%. Haley is at 22%.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: DeSantis is at 11%. And Lovett's guy, Tim Scott, with
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: only 6% in his home state. He is the senator
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: from South Carolina, and he is pulling 6%. After a
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: lot of money spent, high name ID, especially in his state,
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: 6% for Tim Scott. Not dropping out. Tells us that
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: he guarantees he's going to get One or two in Iowa,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: which is fucking hilarious. So the race for second could
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: get pretty heated at the debate next week. And Nikki
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: Haley just gave us a preview of what that might
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: look like when she did an interview with Charlemagne on
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: The Daily Show this week. Let's listen to the clip.
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: Are you wearing higher heels than Ron DeSantis next week
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: at the debate so you can look taller than him
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: on the stage? I don't know.
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: We'll have to figure that out. I can tell you,
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: I've always talked about my high heels. I've never hid
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: that from anybody. I've always said, don't wear them if
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: you can't run in them. So we'll see if he
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: can run in them.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: This is a whole thing now, Dan, that DeSantis is
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: wearing lifts in his shoes. There's articles about this now.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: Don Jr. 's having some fun with it. He's been
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: having some fun with it for a while. This is
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: what Ronnie D is dealing with.
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: And you know what? I'm enjoying it. I also think
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: that Nikki Haley, not to just give her some advice,
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: but should have just said, I don't need to. I'm
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: taller than him in bare feet.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: That's a good line. That's a good line. Nikki Haley,
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: we know she's a listener, a big fan. If you're
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: listening before the debate next week, Dan just gave you
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: the line. All right. So during our last show, we
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: played a little fantasy politics and I sketched out a
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: scenario where everyone but Nikki Haley drops out so she
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: can run against Trump in a one on one race.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: Based on these polls, how do you think that would go?
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: Well, not great is what I would say. A couple
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: of things. Let's start with the Iowa poll. So in
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: the Iowa poll, 61 percent of Trump's voters say they've
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: made up their mind and are not changing. That is
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: an unprecedentedly large number. Steve Kornacki pointed out that the
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: last candidate to have a significant lead and nowhere near
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: as big a lead as Trump in a Republican primary
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: was George W. Bush in 2000. And he generally had
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: 20 to 30 percent of his vote was fully committed.
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: So Trump has a locked in electorate.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: They asked about enthusiasm, too. Eighty seven percent of his
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: voters are either extremely enthusiastic, 47 percent. or very enthusiastic 40%.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: That is wild.
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: He's quite popular among the mega base. The base named
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: after his campaign message. Yeah, they probably like him.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true.
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: And the other thing that is notable in there is
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: of Ron DeSantis' whopping 16% of voters, 41% of them
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: have Trump as their second choice. So if Ron DeSantis
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: were to drop out, those votes don't accrue to Haley.
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: A portion of them accrue to Trump, which actually put
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: him over 50 in that state.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: To me, that sort of tells the story of the
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: entire Republican primary in 2024, which is that Ron DeSantis
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: is the only candidate who can draw from the MAGA base.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: Like if you look at who Haley's supporters are, they
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: tend to be independent, college educated, like just sort of the,
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: I don't want to say anti-Trump, but people who are
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: willing to look beyond Trump, right? People who either aren't
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: favorable towards Trump or who were like looking around for
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: another alternative. Like that's Haley's, that's whose Haley's consolidating. But
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: that part of the Republican Party is not nearly enough
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: to win. The only candidate who can draw from both
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: the MAGA base and the group of people that Haley's
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: drawing from, the anti-Trumpers, is Ron DeSantis. And sure enough,
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: DeSantis in this Des Moines Register poll is viewed more
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: favorably than any other candidate, including Trump. So this is
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: the other thing. For all that we make fun of
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: Ron DeSantis for, and as bad as a campaign he's run,
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: Republican voters in Iowa actually like him. They just like
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump more. They just want Donald Trump. And it's
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: weird that it's nothing necessarily against Ron DeSantis. They love
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: them some Donald Trump. And that's the fucking story of
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: this primary.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: I think the analysis of the primary that all of
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: us have brought to bear has sort of two... initial
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: and fundamental mistakes in how we understood it that have
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: sort of been fruit from a poison tree to everything else.
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: One is this idea that this is a battle between
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: the MAGA wing and the non-MAGA wing. That's not a thing.
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: It is almost entirely a MAGA base, and then it's
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: a battle for who can consolidate parts of that MAGA base.
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: So that's one.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: I would say it's like 25% of the Republican electorate
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: is probably not maxed out. Yeah.
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: Well, that means if three of every four Republican voters
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: believes in the Trump view of the world, then– because
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: there's always that in every primary. But it sort of–
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: we came into this idea it was a little closer
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: to 50-50, which meant that someone had a real chance.
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: And the second mistake was is we treated Donald Trump
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: like a new presidential candidate like he was in 2016
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: as opposed to who was essentially the incumbent president for
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: these people.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: So much of an incumbent president that many of them
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: think he should be president right now because he didn't lose,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: which is, again, the fundamental problem.
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: And some still think he is. And then the other
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: challenge here is that people like us have been pushing
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: and pushing and pushing this idea that why don't these
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: guys run on an electability message? Like, why don't they
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: say Trump can win?
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: That went to shit when Joe Biden's poll numbers went
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: to shit.
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: So that's problem one, right? Is the Republican voters believe
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: that Donald Trump is the most likely to win? But
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: in the CNN polls, this very interesting question, which they ask,
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: what is the most important quality you want in your
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: presidential nominee? And the number one choice by 41% of
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: voters was someone who fights for conservative values even when
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: they're unpopular. Way down the list at 16% is someone
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: who can reach voters outside of the Republican Party.
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I will say that if in an alternate universe,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: if Biden was really strong in the polls and And
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: you were just seeing poll after poll where Biden was
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: beating Trump by like five points, six points. But Ron
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: DeSantis or Nikki Haley was tied with Biden. I think
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: those electability numbers would go up like more Republicans would
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: care about electability because they would be so worried to
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: lose to Joe Biden. But they haven't had to make
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: that choice.
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: And would they actually see that information?
• 23:49
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: That's the other question, is that they were shocked that
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: Joe Biden won because they weren't consuming all of the
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: polls that we were that showed that they were incorrect.
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: And so maybe these people were correct and we were wrong.
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: But throughout the entire general election 2020, even dating back
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: to the primary, all every single poll, the entire time,
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: every single high quality poll showed Joe Biden winning by
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: a lot in many cases. And that just never penetrated
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: into the Republican media ecosystem.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: That's true. That's true.
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: The other thing I just want to say, this is
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: a low likelihood scenario, very low likelihood scenario. It seems
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: impossible that someone other than maybe Tim Scott, who has
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: declared it so, is going to win Iowa other than
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump. The question would be, could Haley win in
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: New Hampshire? New Hampshire is a very bizarre electorate. It
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: is an open primary where independents can vote. There is
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: no real Democratic primary happening on the same day. And
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: so in a scenario where if that were to happen,
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: I'm talking like a 1% or less likelihood here, then
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: you head to South Carolina. which is her home state.
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: And could that, just the thing we don't know because
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: we've never really seen is Donald Trump taking a loss,
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: a significant loss in a Republican primary and how that
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: would affect things. And so that would be the only
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: possible shot ever. And it would require a lot of things.
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump, Joe Biden to strengthen. Donald Trump to weaken.
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: Probably require Ron DeSantis to strengthen among MAGA voters to
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: take some people from Trump, but not Haley. And then
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: have Haley have some sort of massive... incredibly lucky, highly
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: unlikely surge with independent voters.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: Oh, you think it would require DeSantis to stay in
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: after coming in second or third?
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: It would have to be a thing where Haley is gaining,
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: either DeSantis' numbers go up because he's taking some from Trump,
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: or his numbers stay the same, but the composition of
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: his 15% changes where it's more of those people who
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: are Trump, for Trump voters who DeSantis is their second choice,
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: changing to DeSantis, and then Haley taking some of the
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: some of the college educated, more independent leading, more moderate
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: voters that are a little, that are more overrepresented in
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: New Hampshire than in the other primary states.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: And I guess then if you're Haley or DeSantis, you
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: really run on electability because the inevitability of Trump is
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: punctured by losing New Hampshire. And then you head to
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: South Carolina and you say, you know, he just lost
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: in New Hampshire and look at all these legal troubles
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: and blah, blah, blah. And we all love Donald Trump,
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: but he's just, it's too much of a risk And
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: look how strong Nikki Haley is in New Hampshire. And
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: then she puts out some polls saying she could beat
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden. And then she's off to the races. Although
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: I still think at that point, that South Carolina poll,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: Trump at 53 and Haley at 22. Now, we know
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: from experience that numbers in South Carolina can move quite
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: a bit after what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: Like a lot. It happened to Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: was leading by a lot in South Carolina up until
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: we won Iowa. And then she wasn't. So that could change,
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: but that is a big gap.
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, look, I'm not saying this is likely, probable, possible,
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: maybe slightly, maybe in some strange world possible, but that's
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: the scenario that it would take. And there are a
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: million variables that have to go right for that to happen.
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: But I think it's New Hampshire is the case. And
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: if Donald Trump wins Iowa, New Hampshire, it's over.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: So some of these goobers have lamely and so far
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: unsuccessfully tried to criticize Trump. But the latest line of
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: attack is at least enjoyable for us. They're suggesting that
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: he's old and losing it. And a few media outlets
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: are finally starting to pay attention. Here's the New York
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: Times quote. Big story in the Times this week. Mr.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: Trump has had a string of unforced gaffes, garble and
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: general disjointedness that go beyond his usual discursive nature and
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: that his Republican rivals are pointing to as signs of
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: his declining performance. The story also includes a quote from
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: Ron DeSantis, quote, This is a different Donald Trump. Lost
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: the zip on his fastball. In 2016, he was freewheeling.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: He's out there barnstorming the country. Now it's just a
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: different guy, and it's sad to see. What could Ron
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: possibly be talking about, you ask? Well, here are some
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: greatest hits from just the last month.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: Have weaponized law enforcement to arrest their leading political opponent,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: leading by a lot, including Obama. I'll tell you what,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: you take a look at Obama and take a look
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: at some of the things that he's done. And we
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: did with Obama. We won an election that everyone said.
• 28:22
  Speaker 4: Couldn't be won.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: The windmills are, they're driving the whales, I think, a
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: little batty. Voters, you don't have to vote.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: Don't worry about voting.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: The voting, we got plenty of votes.
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: You got to watch.
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: Victor Orban, did anyone ever hear of him? He's the
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: leader of Turkey. You know how you spell us, right?
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: You spell us, U.S. We're going to turn Christmas around.
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: Remember the department stores weren't, they refused to use the
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: word Christmas.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: Big hello to a place where we've done very well,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: Sioux Falls.
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: Thank you very much, Sioux Falls. So Sioux City, let
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: me ask you.
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: Terrorism and pro-terrorism, what you're doing, the terrorism.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: Hezbollah and hummus. And just in.
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: Conclusion, we have a man who is totally corrupt and
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: the worst president in the history of our country who
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: is cognitively impaired in no condition to lead. We would
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: be in World War II very quickly.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: Wow, that's good stuff. Hummus. Any indication that Republican primary voters...
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: will suddenly think that Donald Trump is losing it and
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: run into the arms of Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis?
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: Can you lose a step if you never had one?
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like, what was his fastball like? The fastball
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: that never got him again above 47% in the national
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: popular vote. What are you talking about?
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: I think this stuff is all feature, not bug for
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: most voters. And then once again, for these people to
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: actually see this, someone's going to have to show it
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: to them. And we know Fox News is not doing
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: super cuts of Donald Trump's worst moments for them to see.
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: It's not showing up on radio. I mean, theoretically, DeSantis
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: or someone else could run ads showing this stuff. I
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: can't imagine they will actually do that. But most people
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: who do not record podcasts for a living, do not
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: watch Trump's rallies from beginning to end on 1.75 speed
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: on YouTube. They're not seeing it.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: We do it so you don't have to, guys.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: And when he, and I promise you this, is that
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: one of the real problems with, in the ways in
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: which the press is not figuring out how to cover Trump,
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: is that local news tends to sanitize Trump. They pick
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: his more coherent moments because they're trying to tell a
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: story about what he actually said. And you can't do
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: that with like, him calling Hamas hummus and the Biden stuff.
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump came to town today and he called for X, Y,
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: and Z, and then they'll play clips that support X, Y,
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: and Z as opposed to the worst stuff. Republicans have
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: a media apparatus that will take the worst moments of
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: Joe Biden and show it to all of their voters
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: and then pump that content through social media in front
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: of people who aren't just their voters. Democrats don't have
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: that apparatus, at least it particularly does not have that
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: apparatus in a way that would reach Republican voters who
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: would otherwise consider DeSantis or Haley.
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: Except, of course, all the Republican voters who listen to
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: Pod Save America who just heard that wonderful compilation.
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: Yes, that's true. That's true. In fact, we should put
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: that online so that our friends can share with their
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: Republican uncles and cousins.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: Well, and speaking of that, the Biden campaign has been
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: doing this. They've been having some fun tweeting out all
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: these clips. There's a BidenHarrisHQ Twitter account that is.
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: It's also on threads, John. It's also on threads.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: It's also on threads. They're very active on threads.
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: Maybe they toot, maybe they skeet. I don't know, but
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: it's possible.
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: Anyway, they've been tweeting these out. Trump obviously presents a
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: lot of targets. We've talked about this. Scary demagogue, criminal defendant,
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: congenital liar. What do you think of the crazy old
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: guy strategy?
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: I think this is more tactic than strategy. I don't
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: think this is necessarily how Biden is going to run
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: against Trump. But I think they are trying to solve
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: a specific problem, which is the media coverage of Biden
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: is centered around this narrative that his biggest political weakness
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: is his age. And so every time Joe Biden, who
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: has been dealing with a lifelong stutter, says something the
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: wrong way or trips on a sandbag or anything like that,
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: that is then used as a massive political gaffe that
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: could cause him to lose the election. And so it's
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: all framed through that. While over here, Donald Trump, who,
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: don't get me wrong, has his own series of problems,
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: separate and apart from the crazy things he says. Says
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: crazy stuff all the time, but it's never put in
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: that same framework. And there is this, you see what
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: I know, this tremendous frustration among Biden aides that Biden
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: and Trump are basically the same age, but it's all
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: about Joe Biden being the oldest president, not the fact
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: that if Donald Trump wins, he will also be the
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: oldest president in American history, right? He will be the
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: second oldest president in American history.
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: So they're just trying to change the matrix by which
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: the press is covering the race to focus a little
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: more on Donald Trump stuff, which I think is probably
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: the right thing to do. And plus, if you've been
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: working on Joe Biden's campaign for the last seven months
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: or so since he announced, you deserve some fun. This
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: has not been an easy seven months. So if this
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: is fun, let's get you through the day. I fully
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: support it.
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: So I think there's some nuance to the Trump is
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: a crazy old guy argument, which is like, I don't
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: think and I agree with you that you don't necessarily
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: win a battle between Joe Biden and Donald Trump where
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: you say like, I'm not old, he's old, or he's
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: just as old as me, or you think I've lost
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: a step? No, no, no, he's lost a step. Like,
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know that that's the field they want to
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: be playing on. And I don't think, like you said,
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: it's a tactic. I do think that reminding everyone what
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: a fucking clown Donald Trump is, is actually effective. I
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: think that authoritarian leaders, fascists throughout history, they do not
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: like to be made fun of. They do not like
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: to be mocked. Donald Trump does not like to be mocked.
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: And I think we need to get back to, like,
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: he is an extremely scary demagogue, right? We've said a
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: million times, you've got to take him seriously and literally.
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: We've all seen it in action for four years.
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: Did you just say seriously and literally?
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: Seriously and literally. Yeah, we all talked about that. He's,
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: you know, he tried to overturn the election and cited
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: an instruction. All of that, for sure. Second term would
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: be fucking terrifying. But he's a clown. And I think
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: for a lot of Americans, they don't want to be
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: embarrassed by their president. They don't want to elect a
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: clown as a president. They don't want to have someone
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: who like says crazy shit all the time. Even among
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: Republican voters, the only sort of crack in the armor
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: there is when they say, oh, I don't like his
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: tweets and I wish he would. I don't like his behavior.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: I wish he would, you know. And so that is
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump's weakness. And I think getting that out there more,
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: reminding people of that more is going to be important.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: And I think that's slightly different than saying he's lost
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: a step. But it does require us to make sure
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: that people are consuming content where Trump is acting as
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: crazy as he always has been.
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: I think that's right. What I'm specifically referring to is
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: a series of tactics that campaigns often do to try
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: to affect the way the media tells the narrative of
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: the race. And that's what they're doing here. That's why
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: this is framed through the cognitive decline, which is how
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: the headline of that time story that was surprisingly great
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: was about how this was going. Donald Trump has a
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: lot of misstatements and gaffes that make it harder for
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: him to run against Joe Biden as someone too old
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: or going through cognitive decline or whatever the Republican message is.
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: I think the way to think about the crazy Trump
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: moments is to make him seem weak. Because too much
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: of the, Donald Trump is running on a classic strongman strategy.
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: And too much of our messaging reinforces that element of
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: him He's an authoritarian. He's going to overturn the election.
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: That all makes him seem powerful. In fact, in some ways,
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: the indictments have made him seem more powerful. Not so
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: much if he has marched out of a courtroom in
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: an orange jumpsuit. That will not make him seem powerful.
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: But the fact that the narrative that all of these
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: government agencies, the deep state, everyone is coming after him,
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: is something he has turned into an evidence of his strength.
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: Our messaging needs to be about evidence of his weakness.
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: And that's what I think some of these, the moments
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: that are currently being put through this cognitive decline framework
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: can be used for, right? Is that this guy, he
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: is a clown. He is not serious.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: You can't, you can't be strong if you're a joke.
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: I think is the important thing here. And I, and
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: like just calling it, I mean, like we have to
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: show his weakness, you know, and not tell people he's
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: weak because people aren't going to be primed to think
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: he's weak. But if he's a joke, if he's mockable,
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: if everyone's laughing at him, No one's really afraid of him.
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: That's not scary. That's not strong. He wants us to
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: be afraid of him. He wants to seem like powerful
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: and strong. And I do think mocking him is going
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: to help fix that a little bit.
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: Do you remember the ad the Biden campaign ran in
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: early 2020 with the footage of all the world leaders
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: laughing about Trump from some sort of G20 or something
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: like that? And people, I think you, a lot of
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: us said that this was a great ad. And a
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: lot of people were like, no one cares about foreign policy.
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: People hate other countries. It's like, no, the point here
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: is he's a joke, right? And a joke cannot be
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: a strong man who can protect you from chaos in
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: the world.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: That is right. That is right. All right. I also
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: got to ask you about a few new general election polls.
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: Oh, fun.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: That tested some third party candidates, particularly RFK Jr. So
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: the new Quinnipiac poll has the race Biden 47, Trump 46.
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: But when they add in RFK Jr., the race is
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: Biden 39, Trump 36, RFK Jr. 22%. When they add
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: in Cornel West, it's Biden 36, Trump 35, RFK Jr. 19,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Cornel West 6. And there's also a new Susquehanna poll
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: that shows RFK Jr. hurting Trump in the three-way race,
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: which Biden does win. So similar to the Quinnipiac poll.
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: What do you make of those polls? Are you more
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: convinced that RFK Jr. will hurt Trump more than Biden,
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: or is it still way too early to tell?
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: I have a lot of thoughts on this, John.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there we go. So sort of surprised you with this.
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: It wasn't in the outline, but I was just, but
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: I do read it.
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: I do read it when you send the script back.
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: So I was prepared.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: Okay. Appreciate it.
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: Um, I'm not sure. I'm not your cohost who was
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: surprised by the questions.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: So I, spoiler, it's not Tommy. I, I.
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: It is still too early to tell for a couple
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: of reasons. One, It's going to depend a little bit
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: on how RFK Jr. runs his campaign. Is he going
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: to spend his time and money attacking Biden and trying
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: to appeal to disenchanted Democrats? Or is he going to
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: go after both of them or go after Trump and
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: try to get some sort of disaffected Republican, some of
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: the Trumpy independents who do not vote for Republicans other
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: than Trump, try to get them? And so just. Because
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: there's a dynamic of two-on-one in advertising. And I think
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: it's particularly problematic for Biden as a former Democrat named
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: Kennedy going after Biden. So that's one. Two, the numbers
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: in these polls are kind of absurd. The idea that
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: one in five Americans know enough about Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: to pick him as their presidential choice is ridiculous. He's
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: essentially representing the mystery box phenomenon right here, where if
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: you don't love option A and B, you're going to
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: go see what's behind door C. And so he's sort of,
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: I think, representing generic other in that sense. And then
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: the most important thing of all, more than any of
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: these polls, whatever they say now, whatever they say a
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: year from now, well, I guess a year from now
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: would be pretty consequential, but whatever they say six months
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: from now is where he gets on the ballot.
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: I was just going to say, okay, yeah.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: I agree.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: He does not have guaranteed ballot access anywhere. He's not
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: running on the Libertarian Party ticket or the Green Party
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: ticket where their nominee automatically gets on the ballot in
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: some states.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: And neither is Cornel West now, also, we should say.
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: And so if he gets on the ballot in Alaska, Kansas,
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: and California, it's not going to matter. If he gets
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: on the ballot in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, one
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: of those states, or even just one of those states,
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: it could be very consequential, whichever group he takes from.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: And we should say it's not an easy thing for
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: an independent candidate with no party, libertarian, green, whatever, to
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: just get on ballots in these states. That is a
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: pretty difficult process, right?
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: Oh, absolutely. You have a ton of money. It's very expensive.
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: It takes a lot of time. You have to gather
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: a tremendous number of signatures. Some states have very difficult
• 40:42
  Speaker 3: ballot access where the signatures have to be from all
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: of the counties or some portion of the counties. Then
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: they have to be verified. It's very, very expensive. And
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: One of the problems for RFK Jr. is his money
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: to date throughout the Democratic primary, it was MAGA donors
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: who thought he was hurting Biden funding him. And if
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: they now think he's hurting Trump, which the Trump campaign
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: reportedly does, so this is consistent with their polling, I assume,
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: I don't know where he's going to find the money
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: to do that.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's why he turns to the all-in pod.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: I was waiting for you to say that.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. They like him. No, I know. He does have
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: some money, so I worry about that. And look, I
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: think I agree with you that 22% is sort of absurd.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: It does give me some concern that so many voters
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: want that third option, knowing that it's not going to
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: take many defections to swing the race to Donald Trump.
• 41:38
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: These poll numbers and all the third party polling and
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: all the polling that asks, do you want Biden, Trump,
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: or someone else or not voting, all speak to our
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: biggest concern, which is Joe Biden is currently not popular
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: enough to guarantee a victory. And we need more enthusiasm
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: on the Democratic side, and we need more of the
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: anti-MAGA majority in this country to come back to vote
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: for Joe Biden again, and we have zero margin of error.
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 42:06
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: Well, so before we go, I just want to take
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: a second to Remember our friend Adi Barkin, who died
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: this week from complications of ALS at just 39 years old.
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: So a lot of you probably heard Adi on the
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: show trying to get people involved in the fight to
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: make health care human right. First time we talked to
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: him was right after he was arrested for protesting Trump's
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: tax cut in 2017. On his way home from that event,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: he confronted former Senator Jeff Flake on a plane to
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: beg him to vote against Medicare cuts. The video went
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: viral and then we booked Adi on the show. So
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: he starts off the interview by saying, hey guys, I'm
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: pretty excited right now. And I said, oh, well, thanks.
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: That's nice to say. We're excited to have you on.
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: And he says, no, man, I'm not excited about being
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: on your podcast. I'm excited about rejuvenating our democracy with
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: thousands of my closest friends. So he then lets us
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: ask like two questions before he completely takes over the interview.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: and starts interrogating us about Republican politics, economic policy, Barack
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: Obama's shortcomings. And at one point he says, okay, last
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: question for you guys. And Lovett says, well, now you're
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: just fully hosting the show. And Adi says, two bad guys,
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: dying man gets to do what he wants. And that's
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: who Adi was. He was every bit as brave and
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: determined and inspiring as he seemed, but he was also witty,
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: and self-deprecating and darkly funny. He was wonky and shrewd
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: and tough. He would call you on your bullshit when
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: you weren't doing enough or fighting as hard as you could.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: Adi did not become an activist because of his ALS.
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: He was an activist his entire life who understood that
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: his ALS would allow him to reach more people, organize
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: more people, persuade more people, pressure more politicians to do
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: the right thing. But he did all of that with
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: just the most big hearted, generous spirit. And what he
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: taught me is that in the face of pain and
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: suffering and even death, it's important to find joy in
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: the struggle for equality and justice. And the reason it's
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: important is because that struggle is with other people and
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: it's for other people, people you love and people you
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: may never know. And that's, I think, why Adi embraced
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: that struggle right up until the day that he died.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: He did it for his brilliant, incredible wife, Rachel, his
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: two beautiful children, Carl and Willow, and for all of us.
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: He was the best organizer, best human, and I loved
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: him very much. And because he wouldn't want it any
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: other way, I will go ahead and we will give
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: Adi the last word today.
• 45:03
  Speaker 6: I have come to understand the difference this way, I
• 45:06
  Speaker 6: can do nothing to change the fact of my terminal illness.
• 45:10
  Speaker 6: There is no cure for ALS right now, and there
• 45:13
  Speaker 6: is nothing I can do to stop my rapid neurological decay.
• 45:17
  Speaker 6: To flail against it helplessly would only cause me additional
• 45:20
  Speaker 6: grief and suffering, so the only thing I can do
• 45:23
  Speaker 6: is accept it. That isn't true about the healthcare crisis
• 45:27
  Speaker 6: in this country, or systemic racism, or the climate emergency
• 45:31
  Speaker 6: barreling towards our shorelines every day. Resisting those challenges, whether
• 45:36
  Speaker 6: by marching or voting or petitioning, that's the only way
• 45:40
  Speaker 6: to solve the most pressing problems facing our society. And
• 45:44
  Speaker 6: that is why I'm doing everything I can, even as
• 45:47
  Speaker 6: paralysis grips more of my body every day. Struggling for
• 45:51
  Speaker 6: justice is a fruitful endeavor.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: All right, everyone. Thank you, and we will talk to
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: you next week.
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: Bye, everyone.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our producers
• 46:03
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• 46:06
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• 46:10
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• 46:13
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