Latest / The Curve / TCW37: Good news! Inflation’s coming down, Disneyland’s still cool, and it’s a big month for hot guys in sandals.
Transcript
- 0:00Hi and welcome to the Curve Weekly. The podcast that keeps you up to date with all the money,
- 0:06business and stock market tea. Everyone should experience for us at least once in their lives
- 0:10and Annie shouldn't miss out just because she can't afford it. Help me, I'm poor.
- 0:15We are officially FinTech girls. Well not really. Yeah. There's this really cool girls at Google
- 0:22who we're going to do an event with them. I hope you're listening. Hi. Sally, Karen, we love you.
- 0:28But anyway, they invited us to this live podcast event. Yeah. And it was quite cool venue in
- 0:32London at a shortage. It was very lovely. Like underground. It was a bit gross. Grungy.
- 0:39In a toilet, it's not weird. Um, and well, like a bit of East London. Yeah, yeah. Grungy. Sorry,
- 0:48Grungy, not gross. Sorry, it was, it was a really nice event. Sorry. It was, anyway, there was
- 0:51these really cool people on the panel. They were doing this live conversation about big news headlines.
- 0:57And big stats that had been coming out. And it was basically all finance,
- 1:01bros, right? In the audience. Yeah. And then us four girls. Yes. And do you know what was cool
- 1:07when they were talking? I was following most of, I would say, maybe 70% of what they were talking
- 1:12about. Yeah. Yeah. Which, especially been me a year ago, I'd have been like this. And there was
- 1:17a lot of jargon. Like there was some points in there that even I was kind of, what? Yeah.
- 1:23Like when they were talking about India, reaching their financial inclusion 40 years early,
- 1:28I was like, looking at that, we're like, what's this? She was like, I don't know.
- 1:31Why was I having a meeting like, what does it mean? Well, yeah, anyway.
- 1:35Yeah, it was really cool when it gave us an idea. Yeah. We're like, we should, we should do
- 1:39a live pop. Yeah. How fun. What did anyone come? And I was swearing. Yeah. I did think that.
- 1:45I thought for many reasons, I need to start sound because you said something at the dinner
- 1:50that we were at before. You said something like, oh, you know, something, something, look,
- 1:54there are also something. I know. And when you said it, I was like, that's something I would say.
- 1:59And I was like, oh, and I had this moment of being aware of how I was trying to know what I was
- 2:05saying. Yeah, I can't remember what it was, but you said something, you were giving some example
- 2:10about something. And I was just like, oh gosh, did you notice it when you said it? I can't
- 2:14remember. It was something about like, ass-looking. And I was like, oh, like, if you're
- 2:20kissing someone's ass. Yeah. But it was the way that you said it. It was like a bit, a bit.
- 2:24Well, I never get my metaphors rise. Yeah, true, true, true. I'm like, oh, it's the pop calling
- 2:28the other in black. I mean, right, it's like, what? Honestly, I'm so bad. But yeah, I think a live
- 2:35event like that would be so cool. Yeah. We should do one in New Zealand this summer. And I quite
- 2:40like, so what the structure of the event last night, they read news headlines, financial news headlines
- 2:45and kind of discuss them and decipher them. And I was like, that would be a really cool thing to do,
- 2:50even for the Curve Weekly, if you found some headlines and kind of brought them along. Or we did
- 2:56the live pop-ups just pick Trilla. Pop-ups. Pop-ups. I'm like, yeah, great. I'll just
- 3:02turn off and just put, yeah, if we did it in the event style. I'd love that. And you kind of
- 3:07educated around certain news events, I think would be quite cool. Yeah. Live events would be so fun.
- 3:12Everyone's like, what? This podcast isn't live? Hey, do break it. You should listen to the
- 3:17unilatered person. No, please don't. We showed you just a lot of likes, lots of us.
- 3:25Words and appropriate. You think it's an appropriate what makes it so podcast. You just wait
- 3:29till you hear what's behind the scenes. Okay. So digging into it, we've got actually quite a
- 3:34bit to talk about today. I'm ready to learn. That was like asking me yesterday, what are your
- 3:38accounts more interesting? First of all, first and I just gave the most annoying out. She was like,
- 3:42don't worry about it. I'll just talk about them. I was like, I just need to come and you tell me
- 3:46what's going on. Yeah. First off, the rank is the Birkenstock IPO. Oh, yes. Yeah. So we actually
- 3:52had someone DM us about this and I was like, already on to it. Claudia, thanks for your message.
- 3:57We spoke about IPO's kind of coming back into fashion last week and how there's been a few
- 4:03we had. Oh, I want to remember. Oh, we had arm. Oh, damn, I wouldn't remember. Yeah. And then we
- 4:09had Clavio, which I talked to in a bit because it's actually listed now. But yes, we've also got Birken
- 4:14stock coming up, which is a brand that everyone knows. So it's going to get a lot of tension. It's
- 4:19going to get a lot of news headlines because it's a consumer brand that has been around forever.
- 4:23So for anyone that's not listened to last week's episode of Raising the Curve,
- 4:28we talked about 10 minutes about IPO's, what they mean. But as a really quick overview,
- 4:34it's when a company goes public for the first time. So there's so many successful businesses
- 4:39in the world and not that many of them necessarily go public, which means you can buy shares.
- 4:44And basically what's happening is this entire time Birkenstock's has been a private company.
- 4:50So no one can buy shares in it. Yeah. So it just means so IPO stands for a nipple, a nipple company.
- 4:58IPO stands for initial public offering. So it is the first time that a company goes public,
- 5:03which means you and me can buy shares in it. So we can buy a little slice of the pie
- 5:08and all the show of the show. Yes, of the slide. I know all the analogies. Anyway, so they are going
- 5:17to IPO and hopefully it's going to be sometimes this month. You don't really get a set date
- 5:23into it. It's closer to the time. Can you tell me when we know? Like I'd love a morning because I
- 5:27am quite interested in this one. Yeah. So a bit of background. So Birkenstock is a 250 year old
- 5:32company. It's been around forever. It's German. Two years ago, the private equity company,
- 5:36which was created and backed by LVMH. So Louis, the town, which is a public company. So they've
- 5:43got a private equity firm and they've got a majority stake. So they've got a large shareholding
- 5:50in Birkenstock. So they bought it. And we've got Birkenstock over the last couple of years
- 5:54who've done a lot of collabs with different brands. And they've kind of become cool again.
- 5:58100%. I would say even over the last 10 years. I saw a guy, like I reckon guys in Birkenstock.
- 6:03How hot is that? And like a bit of baggy jing kind of rolled socks as well.
- 6:07Oh my god. On a guy. Honestly, it's like a special one. It's like toes that are covered.
- 6:12Yeah. I'm really into it. Yeah, it's like I'm just thinking of a girl, but like it's honestly
- 6:17I cleavage for me. Yeah, maybe. Yeah. I used to think of trucks on guys as the same
- 6:22thing. Yeah. I've lived on to Birkenstocks. Yeah. I think must have nice feet.
- 6:27Oh, I think a couple of it. Yeah. All the slides one, but you can't see the feet.
- 6:30That's for me. Yeah. The ones that you just put a sock on and then just shove your foot in
- 6:35and I'm like attractive. I had no idea LVMH owned it. So they're so they basically bought in
- 6:40privately. So can quite a few, are there quite a few big companies like Birkenstocks who aren't
- 6:45public, but other big companies own part of them. Yeah. So Clavio, for example, is part owned.
- 6:52So for those of you who don't know, we spoke about Clavio as well, which is the email marketing
- 6:55company that we actually use for our emails, their IPO and their part owned by Shopify.
- 7:01Oh. Yeah. So a lot of companies do do that. If you're churning out cash, you've got so much cash
- 7:08as a company, you can invest in other companies that you think might be up and coming.
- 7:13So it's kind of like when Meta bought WhatsApp or maybe they had a stake in it before.
- 7:17But yeah, you can definitely, it would be like say buying a she holding of a curve and then we IPO.
- 7:25Yeah. And then they see that increase in value of their percentage that they hold in the curve.
- 7:30Okay. That makes sense. It's kind of angel investing in a way. But you're kind of in an
- 7:34established company. Yeah. I mean, Birkenstock has been doing so well lately. It's quadrupled.
- 7:40It's revenue in the last nine years. So it's four times it's done. So it's gone,
- 7:45it's revenue's gone from 300 million euros to 1.2 billion. So four times, like it's quadrupled.
- 7:51Yeah, which is quite amazing. Enormous. So a lot of shoes. That is a lot of shoes.
- 7:56It's a lot of hot men wearing a lot of hot men and hot women. So it's going to be priced at about
- 8:03eight million dollars for the company itself. So that means that the price times the shares,
- 8:11which equals the market cap. So the market cap is about eight billion dollars. Eight billion.
- 8:17Yep. So say, I don't know how many shares it's going to release, but say it has a billion shares.
- 8:25Yeah. Eight dollars. It's an eight billion dollar company. Yeah. It's an eight billion dollar company.
- 8:29But so say on day one, the share price does super well and that eight dollar share price goes to
- 8:34ten dollars. That's a ten billion dollars company. It's certainly gone from eight billion dollars,
- 8:38ten billion dollars. What happens? So how then is that company? What's the market cap if they're not
- 8:44listed? Like before there's a share price? Yeah. So that's when it's set at a price. So say it's
- 8:49set at eight dollars and you're going around saying who wants to buy shares at eight dollars and
- 8:53you'd be like, yep, yep, yep, me, me, me. And then you get everyone once it's listed,
- 8:58who also buys shares. And that's what drives the share price up from eight dollars to ten dollars.
- 9:02But what I mean is before it's a public company. So up until this point, can Birkenstock figure out
- 9:09what their market cap is if they're not listed? So that's why you get an independent valuation.
- 9:15You would get a company or a person or you do it yourself. And that's in how you set the share
- 9:20price. Because it's based on something. And it's kind of supply and demand as well. And then you're
- 9:24looking at other companies you might look at Converse, you might look at Adidas, you might look at
- 9:28other companies. What are they valued at? Are we better or worse? Got it. Yeah. So you kind of have
- 9:33a bit of a bit of a play around. But you also want, like we spoke about last week, you want there
- 9:38to be demand from new investors once it's listed to support the share price. So you want to create
- 9:47a bit of hype. Not too much, like all birds. But you want to create a bit of hype. And that's
- 9:53what they did well actually with Clavio. So Clavio listed this week. It's now a public company.
- 9:59You can go by shares if you want. And it's market value is $8.3 billion. But it's share price
- 10:05on day one. It rose 32%. So you'd be like awesome if you had got shares at IPO. But it fell
- 10:13quite a bit and it closed at the end of the day up 9%. So that's still pretty good. Yeah.
- 10:18You know, you're still up 9% at the end of the day. Gosh, it was so hard to get there. Yeah.
- 10:22But the founder of that is just doing some research. He's only $37. Oh my god, sorry. He's 37 years old.
- 10:30Wow. Gosh. He's only 37 years old. And he owned a 40% share holding that company. So he's worth
- 10:38over $3 billion. Billion. Billion. Wow. So he's a founder. He's a budge shareholder. Can we
- 10:44Google him? What does he look like? I mean, yeah. Can he go jump? Yeah. I thought that you'd
- 10:49already. I mean, yeah. What do we know about him? I'm the fact that he's 37 and a free
- 10:55Billion is $3 billion in his name's Andrew. Andrew heard. Andrew Blackie. Blackie. Okay. Yeah.
- 11:02So I can totally how old was Clavio again as a company, but I'm just thinking
- 11:09I wonder how old he was when he started it. Yeah. When was Clavio founded? When we were at this event
- 11:16last night, they were doing a game where everyone had to stand 12. Oh, so not that long. Oh no, 12.
- 11:22So 10 years ago. So he was 20. 27. Yeah. They were doing this game where it was like all these
- 11:29finance questions, you had to stand up and sit down. What was it you had to put your hand up if
- 11:33you thought it was yes or sit down? No. The whole thing was like, you had to be the last one standing.
- 11:37Did you get out on the first question as well? Yeah. We both got out of it. I kind of thought it
- 11:42was a trick question. It was like, who's got more customers? New bang or revalute? Yeah. And I was
- 11:47like, I just feel like everyone knows revalutes. So they all think that it's a bigger company,
- 11:53but I didn't trust my garden. Yeah. I got it wrong. We always have to trust our guts. Yeah. Trust
- 11:58I didn't. I only had ever heard of reds alone. So I revalute whatever it's called. And I thought
- 12:01definitely that one. Definitely. If I heard of it, I must be the most popular. No, yeah.
- 12:06In other news, there was announcement from Disney. So the Disney share price has done actually
- 12:12really terribly since COVID. And it's down about 40%. So the share price is now at $81. And it reached
- 12:19a high of $200. So it's fallen a lot. And that high was all around COVID. People staying at home,
- 12:27watching Disney Plus, all of that. Then they remember they brought back the old CEO, Bob Iger. Yeah.
- 12:32So he's made a pretty drastic announcement that he is going to double down on the investments
- 12:37in their theme parks, their resorts. They've got like cruisers, you know, I guess all those
- 12:42activities, not so much in the Disney Plus side of things. But it makes sense to me that's what they
- 12:47where they've always thrived. Exactly. That's like the strength, isn't it? So rolling out more
- 12:50Disneyland, upgrading them, all of that. So they're going to be $60 billion over the next decade.
- 12:56And it reminded that they only make $3 billion a year. So this is a huge, huge, huge investment
- 13:00that they're going to make into. Rob's really. Bob, fuck. It's really getting in there.
- 13:06Have you been to Disneyland? Yeah. I went with my nose about 14. Is that right?
- 13:10It's quite old. Is it? Yeah. 14. No, sorry, I was a leaven. I was a leaven. And yeah, I mean, I've
- 13:18were I just remember the feeling. I don't remember. I always want to be this fun. You know, I'll jump out
- 13:24of a plane. I'll do a bungee, but I'll do the fear for it, but I am so terrified. I'm just like,
- 13:30I just see all these stories of kids getting stuck in water slides. It think it water parks and
- 13:36people falling off roller coasters. I'm just falling off a roller. Just like falling out of the
- 13:41straps and stuff. I'm just, I'm like, gosh, I, we went to Disneyland and my mum put the fear of
- 13:48God and to us that we would get stolen. Our here would be shaved in the toilets. They'd change
- 13:53our clothes and steal us. There was there was there was a she's so she could go have fun,
- 13:58because yeah, yeah, totally. And then she put us all in matching outfits. So we had a green
- 14:03matching board shorts. Did you have those like for it and green t-shirts? Oh, cute. The whole
- 14:09family was in a match. This is like not cute. Did you have those like straps? You know,
- 14:14those kids I have leashes. We should have though. But no, we were too scared. You know, okay,
- 14:19we're left out mum's side. We were like, I don't want to shave, Ted. We were never allowed to go
- 14:23Disneyland. Well, we're not allowed. We just, I think mum and dad were like, absolutely not
- 14:27that is my idea of hell, waiting in queues and going on rides. So yeah. Yeah. Such a deprived
- 14:33childhood. Anyway. So, so that I reckon that just based on what you've said, I feel like that's
- 14:39a great decision from them. Yeah. Yeah. So it's funny, because when people think of Disney,
- 14:43they just think of Disney Plus. Yeah. Well, a lot of people do, you know, not the old world,
- 14:46traditional kind of entertainment, which is theme parks, etc. So I think now that the world's back
- 14:52to normality, people want to go out and experience things and all of that. 100%. Yeah.
- 14:57Because also it's like, yeah, you're right. Now that we're not in COVID anymore, people do want
- 15:02to have in-person experiences. Yeah. Going to a theme park is like a child's biggest dream.
- 15:08Yeah. So that makes sense to me. Yeah. And so I think that's over the next 10 years.
- 15:13Yeah. So I think you've kind of got to think, do you back Bob Eiger and his
- 15:18decisions to invest? He knows the business very well. You know, he wouldn't be making this huge
- 15:22investment announcement. I feel like he didn't think he'd get a good return on that investment.
- 15:26So yeah, if you look at it over the last five years, his share price is actually down 25%
- 15:31over the last five years. So, you know, we always say hold for the long term, which is five
- 15:36years or longer. If you'd had Disney, she is. And that was all you had. You wouldn't be doing too well.
- 15:41Which is why you don't buy just one company. And this is why you
- 15:45diversify. You're going to make it a dream jungle. Oh gosh, it was so sorry.
- 15:55I was waiting for like, diversify. But no, it came out of little jungle. Nice.
- 15:59I really took my time with it. Yeah. I was like, she's going to say Disney or is she going to say
- 16:04diversify? Because I have no idea. I feel like if you were to buy Disney, you know,
- 16:10we were always talking about comparing Disney plus and Netflix. Yeah. And that, you know,
- 16:14who do you think's going to make it? It's like, to me, I now think of Disney as a stock that
- 16:21isn't really even a competitor of Netflix anymore. If that's where they're focusing their
- 16:25money and attention, I would think of it more as like, yeah, entertainment beyond your screen.
- 16:31You know, like a full experience. Yeah, opposed to just an online streaming platform.
- 16:35Yeah. I mean, it's got a great brand. We're one of the most world renowned brands,
- 16:41Disney, you know? Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, we've had some positive news for the UK.
- 16:47Sophie's always like, can you make the curve weakly a bit more positive? You know,
- 16:51it's more like, oh, inflation's up again. It's kind of hard. I get it. Yeah.
- 16:57Because doom and gloom sells headlines. So we're not trying to like scare people ironically.
- 17:02No, but I mean, that's what I'm reading. Yeah. So kind of like, then I'm translating it to
- 17:08audience, but yeah, no, I should try and... No, but also this is good news.
- 17:13Oh, this is a year. Yeah. So good news is that UK inflation is coming down. How much?
- 17:20So it's now at 6.7%. She's got a big salesman. I know. It's still super high, but it's down from
- 17:2710% in May. Thank you for joining us for the curve news. I mean, yeah, it's a good sign,
- 17:35and it means that things are heading back to that two to three percent. Does that mean things
- 17:38over here are not going to be so effing expensive? I mean, there's still roughly 7% more expensive
- 17:44than last year, but it's getting less expensive. But yeah. What was the high again? 10%.
- 17:49Shit, that's high. Yeah, that's a lot. Like if your salary is not going up that much.
- 17:53Yeah. Yeah. But this means that interest rates probably won't need to go up as much,
- 17:58so mortgage rates won't need to go up, which means house prices won't fall as much.
- 18:03And people's paychecks can go further, because there'll be less of a...
- 18:06You know, your paychecks will be able to go further, so you can spend more, which is really,
- 18:10really good for the economy. It's stunning. Yes. Perfect. But I actually looked so in New Zealand,
- 18:16inflation is still at 6%, but in the US, it's already down to 3.7%.
- 18:22Oh, go in America. Yeah. That's amazing. So why do you think that is? What did they do?
- 18:28And you, you're going to ask that? Oh, well, there's something I prepared earlier.
- 18:31I was actually intrigued. I was like, why are they winning? It's starting to get a bit scary,
- 18:36like you knowing how my brain works. Like last night we were at dinner, and because I was looking
- 18:40at a plate, and I was like, can you please pass me this? She said, chips? I was like, yes, please.
- 18:45And something else happened, and I like, she finished my dinner at the show at the event.
- 18:49And just so if it looks at me, and I was like, you want me to take a picture? You're like, yep.
- 18:53I'm like, do you train me well? And we were talking, I was saying something to her, and then I just
- 18:57stopped talking mid-sentence, because this cute guy walked past, and she was like, it's just so,
- 19:02she can read me like a book. It's getting scary. But yes, so I think the explanation is that,
- 19:09remember when the Russia Ukraine war was happening, and the UK really relies on energy and gas
- 19:16from Russia and Ukraine? And so that led to a lot of increase in prices around energy costs,
- 19:22which has led to the UK inflation staying high, plus Brexit, probably there was a lot of other
- 19:26things that happened. But last year, yeah, energy and power and everything was astronomical.
- 19:31Yeah, whereas the US is a bit more self-reliant, so it's not relying on Russia and Ukraine as much
- 19:37as the UK, so that's why it's, and that can swing inflation in a big way if you've got a huge
- 19:42energy cost movement. So, yeah. And then lastly, because I realised we've been speaking for a while,
- 19:50there's a jungle for you. I mean, we could probably create some pretty annoying
- 19:55jungles. I'm sorry, I got drunk. We're not. We're not. We're not. No. Although I was
- 19:59questioning what was in the bottom of the service coffee. Yeah, it's like, it's a lot of honey.
- 20:03Which is sugar home. I know. I'm starting to feel like I can. I hope it doesn't. We've
- 20:07got an interview after this. I really hope I don't crash during that. So we have a bit of an
- 20:11update on the Cuban cost situation that we spoke about on episode 72 of Raising the Curve.
- 20:20And we didn't interview with a lawyer around why it's really important to make sure you either
- 20:25have a prenup or, you know, your assets are protected. And you are protected. You are protected.
- 20:32And so Kevin Costner, just for anyone who doesn't know who we're talking about, is a, he's an actor
- 20:37from, is it Yellowstone? So he's a pretty famous, very wealthy actor. He was getting $1.3 million
- 20:45per episode from Yellowstone. And we did a massive deep dive into his marriage and the dynamic and
- 20:51what was sort of going on, what she was asking for, because there's been a lot on the news about it
- 20:55if you haven't seen anything. So yeah, that episode definitely go listen to if you're interested,
- 21:00because it's fascinating, but it's also just such a brilliant reminder how important it is to
- 21:06understand what prenup are and how they work so that you know what you're signing, because the way
- 21:12this is transpired and now what's just come out is like kind of scary. Yeah, he's worth about
- 21:17$3.50 million now. And she was wanting about $250,000 a month for child support and
- 21:26for living costs for herself. We go into heaps of detail in episode 72. Anyway, the settlement came
- 21:31out that she's going to get about $60,000 a month. Just put this in the perspective to be married
- 21:35for 19 years. They've got three kids. Like it's just, it just seems, it's been going on for months
- 21:40and I think it yeah, it's a really good reminder that when you are setting up a prenup if you are
- 21:47to just make sure you have a really good lawyer that can, who can almost have the foresight to predict
- 21:53what events might happen. Okay, what happens if you're married for 20 years? What happens if you have
- 21:57kids? What happens if he becomes a multi-millionaire or you become a multi-millionaire? What happens if
- 22:03someone dies? Someone dies. Like there's just so, like you need to have situations or okay,
- 22:07let's put in a clause that we renew it every five years or when these big major events happen.
- 22:12So it's just making sure that you have a really good lawyer when you're setting up that prenup
- 22:15because this shows that it is watertight and she didn't really get much of anything really.
- 22:21Yeah, so same of things. We were talking about this before we recorded. One of the girls who
- 22:25works with us was like absolutely shocked that that was how much she got and that like she was
- 22:32just a little... Yeah, she was absolutely blown away. She couldn't believe it and I was saying to
- 22:38be honest it doesn't surprise me because of the episode we did that episode 72 but also a while ago
- 22:44we talked to a New Zealand lawyer Lauren and we did a whole episode because in New Zealand it's
- 22:48called a contracting out agreement and to me here in the Kevin Hosni case I was like she's not going
- 22:54to get anything and the fact that she barely got anything didn't surprise me based on what we've
- 23:00now learned and I think just using her as an example of what is in that prenup or what it's
- 23:06legally binding it doesn't matter if it's morally wrong it's morally wrong that she's ended up with
- 23:12such a shitty end of the stick but unfortunately that's what she signed.
- 23:17Yeah so it's just knowing what you're signing I think and what you're going into.
- 23:20Yeah on that positive note. Go and hassle your boyfriend's and your partners and your
- 23:27girlfriend's and you know have the conversations about money because it's just you just don't
- 23:33want to end up in a situation where you're like love wins and you're going to be fine and then
- 23:39all turns to shit and it's like because no because it might not turn to shit but if it does you
- 23:44need to have a plan. You might have a happily ever after but you might not. We've got to be prepared
- 23:48for the good, the bad and the ugly. Yes. We've had some really amazing messages come in with
- 23:56like episodes, suggestions lately. Oh yes. Not just for raising the curve but for just
- 24:00in general for us to cover so if you see things in the news and you're like oh I'd love to hear
- 24:05it like the Birkenstock's IPO please do forward things that you see if you want that to unpack
- 24:10them or us to talk about them because it's really cool knowing what you're interested in.
- 24:13Yes and try my best. Okay. Have a great week. We forgot what day it was.
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