Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 140 - 10/14/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 140 - 10/14/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 140 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Monday, a new week begins. That's right, we got a big
0:39
Monday Night Football showdown here tonight.
0:40
We also have Major League Baseball.
0:43
We're down to the final four. We got hockey that's back in our
0:46
lives and before you know it we're going to have NBA and
0:49
college hoops. So the the busy part of the year
0:51
is upon us here guys. Of course, headlined by
0:54
football, which you love to sweat, which we have again, a
0:56
good match up here for tonight, but a lot to get to on today's
1:00
podcast. I have a 5 pack of sweats,
1:02
including three bets on Buffalo and the New York Jets tonight.
1:06
I'm looking at a side, a total and a player prop.
1:08
I'm also going to share with you a Major League Baseball sweat
1:12
two games tonight. There's one total that really
1:14
got checked off a few boxes for me, which I'm excited to sweat
1:18
and then looking in the NHL great system match here on a
1:21
road favorite off a loss. So we're going to start to
1:24
unveil our NHL betting systems, which if you haven't haven't
1:27
been aware of them, they've been pretty decent over years past.
1:30
So let's see if we can get a couple winners here tonight.
1:33
Now before we dive into all of our sweats, couple things.
1:36
One, I want to thank you all for tuning in to the live stream of
1:40
the Sunday sweats, which is presented by Garage Beer and
1:43
powered by rhythm. Every Sunday, 11:00 AM Eastern
1:45
Time to noon, myself and James Santor, we do the live stream on
1:49
Twitter. We talk about different system
1:51
matches. We look at how to use rhythm to
1:53
your advantage, looking at player props and game
1:55
predictions. Had another, you know, well
1:57
attended live stream. I would say yesterday keeps
1:59
getting getting bigger each week.
2:01
So I'm very, very proud to be a Co host on the live stream.
2:04
And of course, for those of you who've already tuned into one or
2:07
two or all of them, thank you. But if you haven't and you're
2:10
free on Sundays around 11:00 AM, just log into Twitter.
2:13
And now we have some fun and we talked about some sharp betting
2:16
system matches. So thank you all for tuning in
2:18
to the live stream. We'll be back at it again this
2:20
Sunday at 11:00 AM Eastern Time. Secondly, how about a pretty
2:24
decent weekend now? It started off great.
2:26
If you go back to Friday guys, we had a big Friday, four and
2:29
one. Remember that was a big college
2:30
football night. We had Arizona State +6.
2:33
They won outright. We had the over in UNLV, Utah
2:36
State over 66 1/2. They scored 84 points.
2:40
We also had Northwestern getting 10 1/2.
2:42
They won and rolled. Also the under in the Dodgers
2:45
game, that Game 5, winner take all 2, nothing lost the
2:49
Vancouver Canucks but great four and one Friday and a good
2:52
Saturday. 4 two and one headlined by a great day in
2:55
college football. Oregon Ducks, baby quack quack
2:59
duck flies, Ducks fly together. My most exciting sweat of the
3:03
weekend because everyone and their mother was on Ohio State.
3:06
Yet that line kept going back to Oregon and we had that great
3:08
system. Match two top five teams take
3:11
the dog. So Oregon was able to outlast
3:14
Ohio State with the quarterback making a boneheaded mistake at
3:17
the end, running the ball and chewing up the clock and not
3:20
having any time left. But that's OK with me dancing
3:23
with the one who brung us with Colorado.
3:25
The the Colorado Buffaloes had a bunch of injuries.
3:28
I was excited to see Travis Hunter.
3:30
I turned in and tuned into it at halftime and he was already
3:32
hurt. Luckily they came back lost but
3:35
covered the number. USC was a great hit.
3:37
They probably should have won that game outright.
3:40
Blew a blew a big lead, but still covered.
3:42
Lost by three, getting 3 1/2 against Penn State.
3:45
Nevada was a late addition for us getting points.
3:47
They came through, pushed UCLA +4.
3:51
They had a lead and coughed it up late against Minnesota.
3:53
So sometimes you push and you're happy like you were staring at a
3:56
loss and you and you pushed and you're and you're glad or you're
3:59
looking at a win and you push and a push feels a little
4:02
different. It doesn't feel as nice loser.
4:04
There was West Virginia, unfortunately couldn't Take Me
4:07
Home. Country roads, UFC, though.
4:09
O and one Pierce let us down really guy had no shot checked
4:13
off every box for me and his opponent Sabatini jumped on his
4:17
back like a spider monkey and then choked him out and like, I
4:20
don't know less than a minute. So Pierce was a no show, but
4:23
Good Friday, good Saturday and then we get to Sunday.
4:26
Now Sunday, one in four Chicago Bears were were the only hit.
4:30
And the weird thing about that one is Chicago Bears, the line
4:33
went against them late. So sticking with our original
4:35
bet was again, wise decision as Chicago rolled, but Arizona
4:39
couldn't cover. Tennessee blew a lead late.
4:42
The Giants we're covering the whole time to give up a
4:45
touchdown late to lose the 3 1/2.
4:46
And then as a Patriots fan, I may have found a quarterback in
4:49
Drake May, but the Pats couldn't cover the seven.
4:52
So one in four Sunday after a really good, what was it, 8,
4:56
three and one Friday, Saturday, and really what was notable.
5:01
I know I'm going to I'm rambling on a bit.
5:02
I know it's a Monday trying to get back into the swing of
5:04
things, but yesterday was just an incredible day for the
5:07
public. As a contrarian better, I got to
5:10
just tip my cap, call the public my daddy.
5:12
Every now and again the obvious popular bets will come through.
5:16
And sadly for us, it was yesterday.
5:18
Favorites went ten and two straight up in the NFL.
5:21
They were 8, three and one against the spread.
5:23
And my buddy John Ewing, who's a great follow on Twitter, he
5:26
tweeted this out. But at Bet MGM, teams that were
5:29
getting more than 60% of tickets.
5:31
So the popular bets were perfect.
5:33
Seven and O against the spread. Steelers, Lions, Bengals,
5:36
Falcons, Bucks, Packers, Texans, all the popular chalk, the
5:40
trendy dogs, they all came through.
5:43
So it's one of those weird Sundays where the public
5:46
obviously had a great day. The odds makers and contrarians
5:49
did not. But every now and again that's
5:51
going to happen. So try not to overreact, which
5:54
actually, you know, I think the public is going to hammer
5:56
Buffalo tonight. And I know they are just
5:58
thinking, hey, favorites chalk, it's crushing it.
6:00
Popular bets, the obvious plays hopefully get some revenge here
6:04
tonight. But there's always usually one
6:06
week, you know, maybe two weeks during the NFL season where just
6:10
all the the popular chalk, you know, cruises.
6:13
Sadly for us, it was yesterday. So Good Friday, Good Saturday,
6:16
Sunday, not what we wanted, but sometimes that's going to
6:19
happen. So let's turn the page literally
6:21
and figuratively and start talking some sharp bets here for
6:24
tonight. So I want to lead off with, of
6:27
course, you know, Buffalo and the New York Jets last game here
6:31
of Week 6. And this one's really
6:33
interesting because I think there is a lot of value in
6:35
multiple directions here with the Bills at The Jets on Monday
6:38
Night Football. So let's start off with setting
6:41
the table, then I'll give you my plays for tonight.
6:44
Bills come in three and two. Remember they started 3 and O,
6:46
but they've lost two straight. They've had a lot of injuries
6:49
recently. They just fell to the Texans
6:50
2320 last week did not cover as a 2 point Rd. dog.
6:55
Similarly, The Jets 2 and three started two and one.
6:57
Now they've lost two straight. Lost to the Vikings 2317 in
7:01
London did not cover as a 2 1/2 point neutral dog.
7:04
So what are we seeing across the market here?
7:06
Well this game open Buffalo -1 1/2 on the road and the public
7:11
is just no doubt about it, especially after the epic public
7:14
weekend they just had hammer Buffalo right?
7:17
Josh Allen. Bills are a good team.
7:19
Bills are due off a couple losses.
7:22
Jets look bad recently is a get right spot for Buffalo.
7:25
Well that's what the public's thinking. 78% of spread bets are
7:29
going Bills. Now, early in the week, you saw
7:31
the line go to Buffalo. Buffalo open -1 1/2.
7:34
Buffalo got all the way up to -3.
7:37
What's very notable to me is that over the last 24 to 48
7:40
hours and really over the last, you know, day or so, there's
7:43
been a ton of buyback on The Jets.
7:45
So Jets got to the high watermark of +3.
7:48
And even though nearly 80% of bets are going Buffalo, that
7:52
three got down to 2 1/2. Now it's down to 1 1/2.
7:55
So over the last 24 hours or so, The Jets have seen a big 1 1/2
8:00
point line move plus three down to plus 1 1/2.
8:03
And again, that's big because Publix pounding Buffalo.
8:06
So it tells me you've got a lot of smart money here taking the
8:08
points with The Jets in a contrarian spot.
8:11
Jets only getting 22% of spread bets in a prime time game just
8:15
from the standpoint of all the stats I gave you, you know, with
8:18
those teams getting 60% or more going 7 and O against the spread
8:22
favorites winning all their games, covering all their games.
8:24
This is a kind of game where the public says this betting thing
8:27
is pretty easy. Take the obvious bet, obvious
8:29
plays, Buffalo, they're going to double down, triple down on the
8:32
bills. But for contrarians, for odds
8:36
makers, I think there's there's a good reason to hope for some
8:39
aggression and finally, for an unpopular dog to bark.
8:41
So I kind of liked in a weird way, like if, if, if dogs like,
8:45
let's say contrarian plays and dogs crushed it and all the
8:48
numbers I gave you that were great for favorites were
8:50
actually for dogs and contrarian plays.
8:52
You'd you'd be excited about tonight, but you'd be like, oh
8:54
man, like there's going to be some aggression.
8:56
Flip it the other way. All these favorites and popular
8:58
plays looking for some aggression with a dog here
9:01
tonight. Now, aside from just the buyback
9:04
as well as the Super bet against the public play, all the drunk
9:08
guys at the bar will be wearing a Josh Allen jersey tonight.
9:11
The Jets also match a ton of system matches.
9:14
So divisional dog built in familiarity, leveling the
9:17
playing field, benefiting the team getting points.
9:19
Divisional dogs are 54% against the spread since 2020.
9:23
Primetime dogs 126 and one O 3 ATS 55% since 2020 with both
9:30
teams are coming off a loss and it's a divisional game.
9:32
Take the dog 67 and 46 ATS 59% since 2020.
9:38
Aaron Rodgers, 28 and 23 ATS as a dog in his career, 55%.
9:43
Then also little X Factor here, the motivational edge in favor
9:47
of The Jets because The Jets just fired their head coach and
9:51
no more Robert Salah. Now it's going to be Jeff
9:53
Ulbricht. And there's a stat flying around
9:55
Twitter or gambling, you know #gambling Twitter.
9:58
I was able to corroborate it. And the stat is you often hear,
10:02
oh, team fires their head coach. Usually they, they play really
10:05
well the next game under the interim coach.
10:07
Maybe they hated the previous coach and they feel liberated,
10:10
or maybe they feel bad they got the guy fired.
10:12
So you know, it's a you know, getting a you know, lighting
10:16
lighting a fire here to get you to play well, for whatever
10:18
reason, though, teams who fire their head coach in season, the
10:23
new coach that takes over since 2020 in his debut.
10:26
Those those teams, those coaches have gone nine and two against
10:29
the spread 82%. So that's a little just little
10:32
supplementary X Factor in favor of The Jets tonight.
10:35
Now I'm going with Jets plus 1 1/2.
10:38
That's my official bet. But I also think if you want to
10:41
tease up The Jets plus 1 1/2 to plus 7 1/2, I don't really mind
10:45
that at all. In fact, I really like it
10:46
because you're going through two key numbers, three and seven.
10:49
It's the Wong teaser. It's a game in a low total.
10:52
It's a divisional matchup, so maybe it's a teaser leg for you,
10:56
but I'm going to go with Jets plus 1 1/2.
10:59
I'll die on the hill of of contrarian sharp buyback and
11:02
hopefully a bounce back after yesterday's public blood
11:05
bloodbath or I guess contrarian odds maker bloodbath.
11:08
Anyway, the total I have a plan. The total as well.
11:11
I'm going under 41 1/2. Make sure you find the hook
11:14
should be available out there. But this total did open as high
11:17
as 44 down to 41 1/2 some books down to 41 and it got down to 41
11:22
earlier today ticked up to 41 1/2.
11:25
Again that hook new butters think it's no big deal.
11:27
It could be a big deal if this is a you know, 21 to 20 game
11:32
Lance 41. You know, you want to you want
11:35
to cash that 2417. You know, think of all the the
11:38
different margins or outcomes you've seen just watching
11:41
football. So 41 is kind of a quasi key
11:44
number. So get the hook should be
11:46
available. I got it at FanDuel, I believe,
11:49
or might have been Bet MGM, but under 41 1/2 again, open, 4472%
11:54
of bets are on the over. Yet the total fell.
11:56
So classic RLM outdoor divisional unders 55% since
12:00
2021, prime time unders 60% since 2019.
12:05
And a little cherry on top, we have a windy under tonight.
12:09
I can tell you being in Boston, you know, I'm on the East Coast
12:12
like New York, but you know, I'm in New England.
12:14
But it's cold and rainy today. It's windy, same thing expected
12:18
with The Jets game. I don't know if it's going to
12:19
rain, but it's supposed to be like high 40s and really kind of
12:23
big wins here. 10 to 15 mph swirling winds and when the
12:27
windball is 10 mph or more, the under is 57% since 2016.
12:31
So add it all up here, guys. Sharp under.
12:34
Hopefully you can still get the hook.
12:36
I'm going Jets under 41 1/2 and I mentioned that teaser, but if
12:40
you wanted to take Jets 1 1/2 up to 7 1/2 and then take the 41
12:44
1/2 up to 47 1/2 and go under, that would be my my dance
12:48
partner if you're looking for one.
12:50
So jets plus 1 1/2 Jets under 41 1/2 and then I got a player prop
12:56
for you. Typically we look at this a lot
12:59
of overs player props, but I found a good angle to the under
13:02
Breece Hall under Now I wrote it up at 58 1/2 under rushing
13:07
yards. You might be able to find a 59
13:10
1/2. I know DraftKings has 59 1/2.
13:12
So shop around, but cover reasons to like hopefully
13:16
briefs. Hall to go under 58 and a half,
13:18
59 1/2 rushing yards. One just recent performance.
13:21
He's gone under this number in four or five games this year.
13:24
He's gone under this number in nine of his last 10 home games.
13:28
He only had 23 yards on 9 carries against Minnesota last
13:31
week. Only had four yards on 10
13:33
carries the previous week against Denver.
13:36
Last time he played Buffalo, it was in Buffalo late last year in
13:39
November, but he only went 23 yards on 10 carries.
13:43
And then a little cherry on top, again, I mentioned John Ewing
13:45
because we used to be colleagues.
13:46
I love the guy. He puts out great Intel.
13:49
But he tweeted out the five most popular prop bets for tonight.
13:53
And I don't know if it was it was either two or three or maybe
13:55
it was one. But I know I did see Breece Hall
13:59
over rushing yards as one of the most popular prop bets tonight.
14:03
And if you are a, you know, data-driven better, contrarian
14:06
better, when you see the public loading up on a particular prop,
14:08
you want to go against that prop.
14:10
And I believe it opened 55 1/2. Now it's all the way up 58 and a
14:13
half, 59 1/2. So you're also getting a little
14:15
bit of a Bilo inflated line play.
14:18
So try to find Breece Hall if you want to sweat it with me,
14:20
under 59 1/2. If not, we'll go 58 1/2.
14:23
But I think you might be able to find the 59 1/2.
14:26
So for me, sweats on sweats on a Monday night, Bills, Jets under
14:32
41 1/2, Jets plus 1 1/2 and Breece Hall under 58 1/2 rushing
14:38
yards or 59 1/2. You can find it.
14:40
Now let's go over to some Major League Baseball because we don't
14:43
want to give up on MLB. And now is when it gets gets
14:46
fun, it gets interesting because we are in the final four,
14:49
Cleveland and New York, the Mets and the Dodgers.
14:52
And I know a lot of people are rooting for the Subway Series
14:55
once again. But I found one value played for
14:57
me tonight. I'm going to look at the
14:59
Cleveland, NY game one in the Bronx.
15:02
So Guardians and Yankees series price.
15:05
By the way, this is game one. Yankees come in -190 to win the
15:09
series. 66% implied probability and we have Cleveland plus 160.
15:14
So obviously, you know, Yankees are expected to win the series.
15:18
I don't care who wins tonight, but I like the under under 7
15:21
1/2. Now in terms of the pitching
15:23
match up, we have Alex Cobb going for Cleveland.
15:25
He was two and one with a 2.76 ERA in the regular season.
15:29
Carlos Rodon 16 and 9 in the regular season, 3.96 ERA.
15:33
Rodon's pretty rested. He hasn't pitched since the 7th.
15:36
Both these guys didn't do great in their one and only postseason
15:39
starts, but I'm hoping for some positive regression tonight.
15:43
Now, in terms of the side, you did see movement toward the
15:45
Yankees. They open around -155 now
15:48
they're up to around -165 they're getting around 77% of
15:52
bets. So kind of just obvious, you
15:54
know, public lopsided support line move in their favor.
15:58
You know, looks like money's going Yankees.
15:59
But I'm going to go under here. First thing you notice with the
16:02
under is that it's very juiced to the under.
16:05
So 7 1/2 under -115 -, 120. A lot of books open seven and a
16:10
half like -110 -, 115. So the under has only gotten
16:14
more expensive. So really juicing up the under.
16:17
I know people ask me like, what does that mean?
16:19
Juiced up? You think it's got to be like
16:21
positive or up, but just think of it as juiced up being more
16:24
expensive. You can have a juiced up under
16:26
just as you can have a juiced up over.
16:28
All that it means is that the -115 -, 120 juice is all
16:31
pointing in One Direction that that's where the juiced up kind
16:35
of moniker comes from. But anyway, that's notable to be
16:39
juiced up under making you pay a more expensive price to go under
16:42
7 1/2 because 72% of bets are going over.
16:46
So if three out of four bets are going over, you know, why are
16:49
the odds makers giving you right now 7 1/2 over at plus 100 plus
16:54
one O 5? You know, they're actually like,
16:56
feels like they're begging you to take this over.
16:58
Tells me we got smart money. RLM juiced up under opportunity.
17:02
Now, couple other angles to like with the under when the total is
17:05
7 1/2 in a playoff game since 2018, the under is 43 and 2563%.
17:12
So again, when the total is low, typically it stays under at
17:16
least 2/3 of the time. Secondly, weather could play
17:19
another factor here. We just talked about MetLife,
17:21
which is technically Jersey, but New York and the Bronx.
17:25
It's going to be cold like high 40s.
17:27
It's going to be very windy. Wind is blowing left to right,
17:30
15 to 20 mph. So maybe you get some, you know,
17:34
I don't know, first row homers that are going to be, you know,
17:38
inside the, you know, in at Fenway.
17:39
It's the Pesky Pole. But Yankees foul territory.
17:42
These, you know, homers get pushed foul something like that.
17:46
Secondly, 2 really good bullpens.
17:49
Cleveland in the regular season was the number one bullpen in
17:51
baseball, 2.51 ERA. Yankees were the 6th best
17:54
bullpen, 3.6 to ERA. Also both teams or at least the
17:58
Yankees rested since their last series.
18:01
Also Yankees three and one to the under this postseason.
18:04
You think of Judge and Stanton and Soto and all these great
18:07
players. They got to score a million runs
18:09
but actually they play typically these slower scoring games.
18:12
And then Cleveland during the regular season was 85 and 68 to
18:15
the under 56%. That was the 7th bet or 6th best
18:19
under team in baseball. So really what jumped out to me
18:22
is public over. Yet this juice continues to get
18:24
more expensive to the under. I'm going to take a shot on this
18:27
Yankees Guardians under 7 1/2 now.
18:30
I got under 7 1/2 -. 115 at Bet MGM.
18:34
But a lot of books right now are 7 1/2 under -120 so try to find
18:37
the -115 As always, try to pay as cheap amount of juice as you
18:42
possibly can. Because when you bet Chris first
18:44
bet to win, that means that less juice you pay, the more you're
18:46
going to get on the back end. But let's get a low scoring
18:49
game. Cleveland, NY under 7 1/2.
18:52
Now to finish up the pod, I got a hockey play for you.
18:56
There are a lot of actual day games today in the NHL, but one
19:00
play in particular caught my eye for tonight, Pittsburgh Penguins
19:04
and the Montreal Canadiens. Now this is a 7:30 PM Eastern
19:09
Time puck drop tonight in Montreal and couple things
19:13
jumped out to me. So one is the fact that we have
19:17
a line move toward the Pittsburgh Penguins.
19:20
So the Penguins come into this game one and two they let's see
19:24
they lost their first game. They beat Detroit, which I
19:27
Detroit that night. Then they lost to Toronto.
19:30
Montreal comes in two and one they won their opener against
19:32
Toronto, lost to Boston, one against Ottawa.
19:35
And that sequencing is important.
19:36
So I'm going to give you a, an angle here in a second, but in
19:40
terms of the side sharp move toward Pittsburgh, I'm gonna go
19:43
Penguins tonight, guys. Penguins opened as a very short
19:46
-125 road favorite. Now the Penguins are up to -135
19:51
-, 140. Now that movement is notable
19:54
because if you look at the bet splits, it's about 5050 tickets
19:58
are relatively even. Only 54% of bets are on
20:01
Pittsburgh, but 76% of dollars are on Pittsburgh.
20:05
So basically a 5050 line move, low bets, higher dollar, sharp
20:08
bet, split in favor of the Penguins.
20:11
The other thing that's fishy here is that if you look at the
20:13
two goalies, Tristan Jari O and 1 ERA goals against of six.
20:18
Montembo the goalie for Montreal 2 and O goals against of 0.50.
20:24
So Pittsburgh's one and two and their goalie was bad in his
20:28
first game. Montreal's two and one and their
20:31
goalie's been great in the 1st 2 games that he's played.
20:34
So if Pittsburgh has the worst goalie and worst record, why are
20:38
they favored tonight? And why is the line moving
20:40
toward the team with the worst record and worst goaltending?
20:43
That fishy angle that doesn't make sense.
20:45
Like when I was younger, I would say, oh, oddsmakers got it
20:47
wrong. All values Montreal plus money
20:49
tonight, which they might win. I hope not because I'm on
20:52
Pittsburgh. But as you kind of progress in
20:55
your sports betting experience, you start to get excited when
20:58
things don't make sense and you embrace the fishy side.
21:00
So worst goalie, worst record yet Pittsburgh Open as a
21:03
favorite became more of a favorite.
21:05
Great bet split, good sharp line move.
21:07
And then here's the kicker. I was dusting off a system and
21:11
maybe you guys remember this one.
21:13
My previous pods are when I used to do other pods before the all
21:17
systems go pod. This is a system that I always
21:19
loved mentioning Rd. favorite off a loss versus an opponent
21:23
off a win. So your favorite, you're
21:25
expected to win your awful loss. So it's a bounce back, your
21:28
opponent is off a win. So maybe they kind of, you know,
21:32
don't have the, you know, the killer mentality.
21:33
They're they're happy they just won and then you're on the road,
21:36
which typically the the public word about hockey, they don't
21:39
really bet it, but they would lean toward the home team.
21:42
So let me say it again. Rd. favored off a loss versus an
21:45
opponent off a win. To me, it's just the ultimate
21:47
buy low sell high system. That system is one O 8 and 5467
21:53
percent, 10% ROI the last three seasons.
21:56
It's two and O this season, and if you look at let me just pull
22:01
this up because they had a really good year last year.
22:03
I don't remember playing it a ton with these system matches,
22:05
but last year Rd. favorite off a loss opponent off a win that was
22:09
64 and 3014% ROI up 15 units. So that match is here tonight
22:16
with Pittsburgh Penguins. So you Add all up sharp line
22:20
move toward the pens. Good bet split fishy.
22:22
Worst goalie, worst record yet they're favored road favorite
22:26
off a loss of pointing off a win again system is 67% winning two
22:29
out of three times last three years.
22:31
So I'm going to go Pittsburgh guys, shop around.
22:33
I got the pens at -134 So that about does it for episode 140 of
22:39
the all systems go sports betting podcast powered by
22:41
rhythm. This is the part of the pod
22:43
where we wrap things up, but I start by asking a favor of you.
22:46
First off, let me thank you, please or not please and thank
22:50
you. Your parents always tell you,
22:52
but thank you for taking the time out of your day to listen
22:55
to the pod. I know everyone's busy got a lot
22:57
going on in life, whether you're, you know, listening in
23:00
the car, I don't know on the on the train, you're, you know,
23:04
coming home from work or you're at home or whatever that
23:07
whatever your routine is, just the fact that in your busy life,
23:10
you take the time out of your day to to pull up a chair to the
23:12
virtual bar and listen to sharp sports betting breakdowns with
23:16
me. It means a lot.
23:17
So thank you. I appreciate you.
23:19
Can you do me a big favor by giving this podcast a five star
23:23
review? If you're listening on Spotify
23:25
or iTunes should be an option there to rate or review.
23:28
All you got to do is click five stars.
23:30
It would mean a lot to me as we get more five star reviews,
23:33
more, you know, more, more respect around the market as
23:36
well as rising up the charts. If you also want to leave a good
23:39
comment or review, that'll be great.
23:41
If you want to click the follow button, even better that we get
23:44
alerted as soon as it drops each day.
23:45
If you want to recommend it to a friend, that'll be fantastic as
23:49
well, but again, five star view would mean a lot to me.
23:53
Secondly, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, no
23:56
opinion, not what I want or hope or think will happen, but what's
24:00
the data doing? What's the market telling us?
24:03
If this style of betting appeals to you, you're not hooked as a
24:06
data-driven better and you want to learn more about data-driven
24:09
betting, guess what I wrote a book all about data-driven
24:12
betting. It's called the everything guide
24:14
to sports betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
24:17
the Everything Guide to Sports Betting, pick up a copy for you
24:20
or for a friend. It makes a great stocking
24:22
stuffer. Or you know, a birthday, someone
24:25
who's newly into sports betting or in a newly legalized state.
24:28
But it's got everything I've learned in the industry.
24:30
How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
24:33
movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
24:35
person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
24:38
a bankroll management plan, all included in the Everything Guide
24:41
to Sports Betting. So pick one up, bring it to the
24:44
sports book. When I see you, I'm going to buy
24:46
you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games together.
24:49
Next. Have you taken advantage of your
24:51
7 day free trial of rhythm and Juice reel?
24:53
My two favorite sports betting apps?
24:55
They help me win. They're going to help you win.
24:57
So starting with rhythm, which again, you can have some fun and
25:02
and tend the live stream every Sunday and just have the rhythm
25:04
app in your hand as we go through some sharp player props
25:07
and and game predictions, but also Juice reel fantastic for
25:10
their AI backed best bet picks that come out each day at noon.
25:14
I noticed today that Robo Jackson is also on The Jets and
25:17
the points with us tonight. So that's great to see.
25:20
But also arbitrage opportunities syncing up your sports books as
25:24
well as getting the sharp mush indicators.
25:26
Another great opportunity to up your data, your data game with
25:30
the juice reel and rhythm apps. So go sign up for the 7-8 for
25:34
your child if you haven't done it yet, and you can do that very
25:36
easily, but in a particular way. Click the custom links that are
25:40
located in the bio description of this podcast.
25:43
For example, it'll say something like in episode 140, Josh dishes
25:46
out a 5 pack of sweats across one Night Football, MLB playoffs
25:50
and NHL. OK, scroll below that Scroll
25:52
down should be a link to juice trail and rhythm.
25:54
Click those links and then you'll be you'll be locked and
25:57
loaded and you'll start your 7 day free trial.
26:00
That about does it. Of course, a couple of things
26:02
I'll always leave you with first, whether I see you at the
26:04
Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook
26:07
of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut,
26:10
at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM
26:14
Springfield and my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
26:17
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
26:19
down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the
26:21
lowest juice possible sound the South Point or Sweat and Sharp
26:24
can train plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
26:27
When you catch a big ticket at Circle wherever, maybe you're
26:30
going to show me some great tickets from Friday and
26:32
Saturday. Not so much on Sunday, but I
26:34
want a Northwestern plus 10 1/2 UNLV over Arizona State getting
26:40
6. How about Oregon over the
26:41
weekend? Colorado, USC, Nevada, whatever
26:46
you do, don't show me Pierce or those public plays that I'll
26:49
cash in the NFL. I'll be the right guys.
26:51
First one's on me, next one's on you.
26:53
Let's post about the book. So it's some sharp contrane
26:55
plays together tonight. So that about does it.
26:58
As always guys, let's try to eke out a profit. 5 plays tonight.
27:01
Let's see if we can get 3 and turn a profitable night.
27:05
But of course, as always, remember sports betting isn't
27:07
easy. When you go, what was it?
27:10
What did I say? 8, three and one?
27:12
Friday, Saturday, you're not never as good as you think.
27:14
When you go 1:00 and 4:00 on Sunday, you're never as bad as
27:16
you think. You're always somewhere in the
27:17
middle. So when you're struggling, don't
27:19
get down on yourself. When you're winning, don't get
27:21
cocky and arrogant. Always grinding the model and
27:24
the model as you guys know at this point, the data-driven
27:27
approach, if we can find games that fit our model against the
27:30
public with the house with the pros flat bet avoid parlays get
27:34
that closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
27:36
to be successful sports bettors. So enjoy your Monday everyone
27:40
big Monday Night Football Major League Baseball playoffs NHL,
27:44
I'll be honest, I can't wait for college hoops.
27:45
I'm I'm excited about NBA as well, but I cannot wait to dust
27:48
off it's it's coming up quick by Ken Palm account got to get that
27:52
thing rolling and excited for college hoops right around the
27:56
corner. But for now, let's have a good
27:58
Monday. But best luck everyone.
28:00
Thank you, as always for tuning in.
28:01
We'll be back at it tomorrow for episode 141 of the All Systems
28:05
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
28:09
Good luck, everybody. Have a great Monday night.