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PGA Round 2 Showdown - Masters | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process | 04/10/26 · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: All systems gone clear you lift.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Showdown Show, Showdown, Show, and we
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: have a new location unlocked to get used to this
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: one though. This is the underground Jersey Shore Bunker. Spend
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: my summers in this area of the world, so had
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: to come up for a quick weekend to celebrate Masters Week.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Of course. Uh nonetheless, if this is your first time here, welcome,
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: glad to have you. What I do every single round two,
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: three four is talk about the round ahead, see who
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: did what, how they did it, and how could we
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: apply what they did to try to predict some Showdown
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: love for the next few days. So if it's your
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: first time, feel free to drop a question, feel free
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: to shoot on me. Feel free to ask any any
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: sort of thing you need to know, any sort of process, question,
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: anything you need. Master this week, I know there's some
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: new people tuning in, so let's get right into it.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: I will share my screen and we will basically go
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: player by player from the top and whether everything in between.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: Let's do it. And obviously I do not have a
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: second screen right now, but don't be scared. Once I
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: have this setup all dialed for the summer, this is
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: gonna be just like we're at we're at home. So
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Sam Burns, rorymock Ord, Kirk Kadiyama, Jay Day, and Patrick
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: Reid all shot the rounds of the day, the five
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: best rounds, said I usually I like to go five, six, seven.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: See how those guys did what they did. Burns, Rory McElroy,
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: and Kirk Kadiama all did it in fairly similar ways.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: They were all great approach players. But there's a massive
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: caveat to that. I think a good approach play can
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: only get you so far. You have to have the
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: baseline first of driving distance to be able to set
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: up realistic approach looks. And Sam Burns, Roy Mackwork, Kirk
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: Kardiama are all very long off the tea. That is
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: not rocket science. Everybody knows that. So in order to
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: have a real spike round, unless you're nationalizing the short
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: game like Jason Day and and Patrick Reed, did you
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: really have to have that distance off the tee to
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: be able to give yourself looks in these firm, undulating,
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: very difficult greens around this place they call the Augusta Nationals.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: So distance is square one. And these three guys, Sam Burns,
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: Roy Mackwork or Kardiama all did that exact blueprint, which
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: is no surprise. That is what we were looking for
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: in terms of a player heading into the week, So
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: that's how they did it. Jason Day and Patrick Reid
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: had just National putters, which is not something that we
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: would ever look for predict, but from Jason da or
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: Patrick Reid we kind of would. So it's no surprise
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: there from that. Those guys. They don't necessarily have the
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: greatest ball striking profile, but it's not to be feared.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: You don't have to have one scrambling when it's difficult.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: You have to rely on your putter and your short game.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: So those guys surely have that. So I do not
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: see them just absolutely ejecting on Friday, Saturday, Sunday like
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: sometimes we would kind of predict a guy with a
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: short game profile too. Let's look at the waves. Let's
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: look at how the course played today, and this is
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: one of the closest wave splits I can really remember.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: This is like less than two tenths of a stroke
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: from the morning to the afternoon, which we kind of
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: also figured would be the case. Like we knew we
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: didn't see anything crazy in terms of weather differential from
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: Thursday when we looked at the Monday Monday forecast, looking
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: at the weather for tomorrow fairly similar. It's not gonna
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: be crazy, it's gonna be perfect weather to play golf in.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: But you can see from seven am to about eleven
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: am the gusts are in some spots half of what
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: they are in the afternoon. So I know the wind
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: is steady like all day, but the gusts are going
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: to be down in the morning. So with that, with
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: that being said, I do think there's a real potential
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: advantage for the morning. It's not gonna be big. I
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: would say four to seven tenths of a stroke, but
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: if that can that what that what I say by
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: that is that can simply get you on someone that
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: you weren't going to be on because you weren't thinking
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: about a potential wave split. Now it's not gonna be
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: a wave split, but I think it's gonna be a
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: little bit easier in the morning. So if you're torn
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: on a guy, I don't think you have to really
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: just go like, all right, I have to play six
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: six six am, five am. But if you're torn on
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: a guy, go with the guy that's in the morning. Tomorrow.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: I do think it's going to be easier, and obviously
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: golf courses always generally play easier in the morning. Combine
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: it with the more benign wins, then I think that
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: we could be in for in for some nice morning
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: scoring tomorrow. So that's that's what I'm thinking for in
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: terms of weather, in terms of scoring for tomorrow. The
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: next thing I want to talk about is contest selection.
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: There's a few contests that kind of catch my eye
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  Speaker 2: for tomorrow. Is that whether you are a big player
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: or a small player, I'll try to cover both bases here.
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  Speaker 2: So bring our screen back up. Here are some of
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: the contests for tomorrow. This five dollars single entry fifteen
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  Speaker 2: k Caddy. I really love to pay out here. You
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: don't have to beat thirty five hundred people, but even
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: if you don't beat thirty five hundred people, it's a
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: very fair structure. Fifteen hundred up top, one fifty to
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: tenth and if you finish ninety, if you're five, exiting
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: your money. I think it's a really solid and really
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: reasonable payout structure. There's another contest here, there's two and
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: fifty or four max. If you want to put in
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: one thousand dollars. This isn't the most top heavy contest,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: or sorry, the most balanced contest, but I do like it.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: For a top heavy contest. First place plays twenty K,
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  Speaker 2: tenth place plays one K, so that's not necessarily the
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  Speaker 2: ten percent we're looking for at tenth place, but I
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: do like it in terms of you get four lineups
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  Speaker 2: in there. There's only three to fifty five total content
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: total lineups in this In this contest, I think it's
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: a really good chance to turn one K until you
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: get a tight core turn what you get two lineups
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  Speaker 2: in the top ten. I'm really I'm a tight core guy.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: So that's a nice contest in my opinion. And then
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: finally I love this fifty five dollars twelve max. I
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: really do four k up top and then four hundred
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: to ten place. If you so four times fifty twelve
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: times fifty five twelve times fifty five equals six sixty.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: That's not the craziest amount of money in the world.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: People enter this every single day. You want to go
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: big for nationals a week you max enter this and
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: you have twelve lineups in here, twelve divided by four
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: thirteen four thirteen equals no. Four thirteen divid twelve four
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: thirteen divided by twelve. So that means if everybody were
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: to max enter this, there'd be thirty five different people
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  Speaker 2: in this contest. You can be thirty you can beat
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: thirty four different people. I could promise you not everyone
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: is going to max enter this, So if you were
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: to max enter this, you definitely would have a massive
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: overlay advantage for this field. So that is what I'm
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: liking in terms of contest selection and everything that goes
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: around there. So I'm going to respond to some questions
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: in the chat towards the end if they come in.
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: But first of all, I want to talk about the site.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: I also want to shout out the Stone two point
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: zero because there was some crazy damn stuff on that
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: I didn't even know it was coming. And then these
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: What one thing I love about ship It Nation and
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: just working for a company is that we're innovating. I
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: don't want to be with a company that's just the
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: same thing over and over and over again. And the
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: fact that they're rolling out the Stone two point zero
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: matters week super innovative. Maybe I'll do a little bit
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: of a video or some sort of content. Regarding the
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: Stone two point zero for next Monday show, I cannot
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: answer if the Stone two point zero will be in
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: the Showdown streets, but I know it's just a great tool. Nonetheless,
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: we do have the stone on the site for uh Showdown.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: If you go right here, go to PGA Showdown the Stone.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: This will be updated round two to four. I would
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: say give it ninety minutes. It will be updated. We're
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: going to use all the projections. We're going to take
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: our time and build the sweatiest, tryhardiest stone for Showdown
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: known to man, as well as the slate plan. The
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: slate plan it's already up. I completed it before the show.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: You can see all of my plays and then the projections.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: So you get a ton of Showdown content and you
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: see that ticker rolling on the screen. I would hope
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: you use code boots. You can get it all for free.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: You can get it all for free. And I keep
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: saying it and Timbo told me not much a long.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: I feel like this has to be one of the
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: last few weeks. And spoiler alert, if you buy it today,
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: if you use code Boots today, you will get boots
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: on the ground. Hilton Head next week. I will be
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: at Hilton Head next week, seeing who's lethargic, seeing who's
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: in good spirits, hopefully not having too much of a
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: master's hangover. So use code boots head over here. You
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: want all sports bang any any single code, any single
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: UH package, all access, you want every sport, Baseball's back.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: You just want the golf optimizer, You just want the
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: content code boots. Use this middle one or use this
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: UH one on the left for the golf. So use
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: code boots. Help me, help you, and let's let's cash together.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: So now, if you're if you're new at the time
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: of the show, I like to go through all the
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: stats try to find some people that are fitting the
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: stat line that I am looking for. So right now
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: I am looking for driving distance paired with approach play.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: We can get those two key stats down. I think
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: you have the blueprint to have a spike round. So
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: what I'm gonna do is pull up our great friends
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: at Data Golf and I'm gonna sort by strokes, gain
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: short by I like the ranking tool actually as well,
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: and then turn on the length feature. So screen is
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: up right now? Is it up? Yep? Right now? Yeah?
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: Like I said, bear with me as I scroll between
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: the two screens. I don't have my second monitor for
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: this weekend. Sorry, So as here's all the stats. Actually
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: these are the rankings, but here's all the values in
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: terms of strokes gain. So what we're looking for is
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: all the tea approach. And if you have this little
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: l next to you, I think that benefits you a lot.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: And if you're going out in the morning, think that
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: benefits you even more. Xander Shrowsley, look at that, gatting
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: one point nine to six strokes off the tee, gain
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: another one point nine to four on approach, and he's long.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: He's doing exactly what we want and he shot one
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: of the better rounds of the day as well. He
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: can easily turn that into a three four under if
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: he gets this around on the green to positive, which
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: should be no problem for Xander Schrofley. Gary Woodland another
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: refer around the green week, around the green day, But
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: he has the blueprint. We were looking for, nice driving
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: with distance and he's gaining a full stroke on approach.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: That is definitely, definitely, definitely what we'd like to see.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: Now this is a profile that I would avoid. You
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: might want. You might be like, all right, Chris writing
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: gaining strokes out to tea. He's long. Oh if he
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: just turns around the approach play, he can be in
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: business tomorrow at six k range or whatever he is. See.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: I don't like that. This is too many strokes lost
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: on approach. Three strokes on approach. Now I will say
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: with that, check the true approach delta on the stone,
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: because that could have been one or two shots derailing
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: his approach number. The true approach delta will negate the
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: two worst approach ots. You hit what could be a
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: water ball, and that really plunders the approach number. So
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: maybe this isn't as bad as it shows on the paper,
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: but for now I don't want to chase a really bad,
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: glaring weakness right now. Another profile that I think makes sense.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: He's not the longest, but keicking Bradley is gaining where
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: you want to gain off the tea and approach the
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: around the green and the putting hasn't popped. But he's
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: only losing a half a stroke around the green that
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: could turn around easily in a day. He's gaining point
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: two strokes putting. That means he's doing good things on
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: the green, but he hasn't yet popped. So I like
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: that profile from Keegan Bradley. Who else to be like
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: down the board a little bit. Cameron Young is a
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: great candidate in my opinion. He gained one point sixty
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: five strokes to the field in another one and a
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: half strokes off the tee minus point three on approach.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: But we know Cameron Young's been trending with the Irons.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: I think this could This is like, like I said,
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: it's not like Christopher Wrighten or Jose Maria where we're
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: chasing our super super bad approach week. Cameron Young only
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: lost point three strokes on approach. That means he's about average,
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: plenty of room to pop popping a little bit in
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: the short game. Love that bounce back ability from Cameron Young.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: Let's try to find two more guys down here. Now
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: this profile kind of worries me a little bit. With Ludevig.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: Ludovic had a great Iron Week, Iron Day. Sorry, he's
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: long gained a little bit shokes with the tea. But
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: I don't want to chase this short game. You're gonna
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: say to yourself, oh my god, if Ludovic can just
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: put tomorrow, he's gonna new this late. Yeah. If he
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: could just put tomorrow easier said than done. You guys
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: know the Augusta greens that no greens are owe you
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: anything on the in golf, so I don't think he
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: could just magically turn it around. I'd rather just be
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: around a zero, So I'm not probably gonna be playing
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: Ludwig tomorrow. One more guy that I want to touch on,
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: Johnny Kiefer. I don't think he's that bad of a
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: bounce back candidate. He's long and he's gaining strokes with
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: the tea. Now. I know he's read around the green,
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: read an approach, and read on the putting greens. But
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: it's not like minus two and a half. It's all
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: within zero point seven strokes in the red. So that
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: tells me that Johnny Kiefer is close and can gain
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: strokes in that category if he just has a nice, little,
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: nice little rain session. I don't think he's too far
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: off at all. So let's see any questions that we
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: have ever here. Is it running yet? I hope you
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: guys won't have a lot around. Bryson definitely was not
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: high on those live guys. I think they're as unseerious
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: as they get. But next thing, I like to do.
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: If you knew, here is one golfer that I am on.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: This is the guy that I am playing, no matter what,
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: no matter if you like it, no matter if he's
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: my favorite player, your favorite player, I'm playing him. He
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: could be the most expensive golfer on the slate, he
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: could be the cheapest golfer on the slate, and that
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: changes on a weekly basis. This is the one golfer
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: I am on for tomorrow. I like to go up
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: and down the pricing to try to just you know,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: switch it up a little bit. Tomorrow We're going up guys.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: One golfer that I'm on Scotland Scheffler. Scotty Scheffler is
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: the one golfer that I am on. And let's take
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: a look at his profile for tomorrow. So Scotty Schefer
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: a round of two under. He is doing everything that
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: we want. Box number one half box number one going
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: out in the morning. Box number two, he's got that L.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: He's got that L that means long. Box number three,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: he's gaining a kind of strokes out the tea. Box
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: number four he's gaining strokes approach. And box number five
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: he's yet to pop in the short game. But he's
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: not doing anything poorly. Plenty of room to pop. We're
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: not chasing a bad Scotty Chefer putter. He's putting fine.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: He just has not popped. So Scotty Scheffler is the
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: one golfer I am on four tomorrow. And finally, the
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: last thing that we do is the one song, the
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: song of the day. Always gotta do this song of
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: the day. Shout out to my roots, shout out to
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: everything that I like, and I know you guys are
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: enjoying the playlist. So the song of the day for
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: tomorrow is Can You Feel My Heart by Bring Me
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: to the Horizon, cult classic, one of the greatest bands
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: of all time. Hope you guys enjoyed any questions un
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: where to find me? And as always, let's hip it.
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: Catch you guys tomorrow night.