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The Muster- David Stevens: Velvet Prices Need To Rebound · The Muster on Hokonui

0:01
Speaker 1: Thunderstruck! Thunderstruck!
0:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, Thunderstruck! David Stevens is a dear father
0:12
Speaker 2: at Netherdale, just out of Balfour. He's been a long-time
0:16
Speaker 2: correspondent on Hakanui Radio as such, going back into the
0:19
Speaker 2: early 90s of Jamie Mackay, and we thought, well, it's
0:22
Speaker 2: about time he had his own intro music. So about
0:24
Speaker 2: a year ago, David, you got Thunderstruck as your lead-in.
0:27
Speaker 2: So firstly, good afternoon.
0:29
Speaker 1: Good afternoon, Andy. Yep, that revved you up a bit,
0:32
Speaker 1: didn't it?
0:33
Speaker 2: How's everything been? Certain areas of Northern Southland have been
0:36
Speaker 2: wetter than others, I understand.
0:38
Speaker 1: Oh, yes. It's been a shocker, actually. I mean, last
0:43
Speaker 1: week's been great. A bit of growth and a bit
0:46
Speaker 1: of warmth. But, no, it's been pretty challenging for those
0:49
Speaker 1: that have been lambing and calving. And underfoot, it's just
0:53
Speaker 1: a shocker, actually. And I understand when you go further south,
0:58
Speaker 1: It's even worse. So, you know, when you see ewes
1:01
Speaker 1: and lambs that are black, it's not a good sign
1:05
Speaker 1: at all and pretty challenging. But, you know, we've had
1:10
Speaker 1: some good days the last bit overcast today. But, you know,
1:13
Speaker 1: good days and temperatures are rising just looking at the forecast.
1:16
Speaker 1: Looks as though we're up around that close to 20
1:20
Speaker 1: most days. That's a big improvement, and things will come right.
1:25
Speaker 2: From a deer farming perspective, what's the big issues at
1:29
Speaker 2: the moment?
1:31
Speaker 1: Well, obviously, we're about to get into velveting. It's a
1:34
Speaker 1: wee bit later down here. This season just hasn't been
1:37
Speaker 1: warm enough, really. I think just talking to deer farmers,
1:41
Speaker 1: you know, the velvet's a wee bit later. But in
1:43
Speaker 1: some ways, that's not a bad thing. Often those earlier
1:46
Speaker 1: heads don't have the weight in them, so it's... better
1:49
Speaker 1: to get the buttons off a wee bit later and
1:51
Speaker 1: get that growth with a bit more weight. So that
1:54
Speaker 1: won't do any harm. And just on the velvet side
1:58
Speaker 1: of it, Southland Deer Farmers Branch ran a workshop at
2:05
Speaker 1: PGG Wrightson's in Vicargill on velvet grading, and quite a
2:10
Speaker 1: number of people arrived. And Tony Cochran, he's the head
2:15
Speaker 1: man for velvet and Wrightson's, he was there. And John Fogarty,
2:19
Speaker 1: John buys quite a bit of velvet himself. And so
2:23
Speaker 1: it was very good, actually. It really explained the new
2:27
Speaker 1: gradings at the right time of the year, too. So
2:30
Speaker 1: people understood before they started cutting. So whereas last year,
2:34
Speaker 1: we had a bit of a problem with that issue. But,
2:37
Speaker 1: you know, the same old questions were asked. You know,
2:42
Speaker 1: what prices are going to be for this season? And...
2:47
Speaker 1: The talk is around about that $ 100, but I did
2:50
Speaker 1: a bit of a workout and looked back, Andy, at
2:53
Speaker 1: what $ 100 means. And when you look back, I went
2:56
Speaker 1: back 19, 20 years, back to I think it was 1997,
3:02
Speaker 1: and we were getting much the same, probably more than
3:04
Speaker 1: that actually. It was a wee bit of a lift
3:09
Speaker 1: in 1997. But even at $ 100 back then, you've got
3:11
Speaker 1: to be getting an average of $ 160 now. to be
3:15
Speaker 1: in business. And what's changed is the buyers now, or
3:19
Speaker 1: the processors in market, don't want those big heavy heads. And, well,
3:24
Speaker 1: they'll discount those big heavy heads. They will take them. But,
3:27
Speaker 1: you know, that opportunity to keep lifting your velvet weights
3:33
Speaker 1: every year, we've lost that. And when I look back
3:36
Speaker 1: to what we had here in 97, between 97 and 2023,
3:43
Speaker 1: We lifted our velvet weights on the herd here by 72%. Now,
3:49
Speaker 1: that kept us in business, and I would suggest that
3:51
Speaker 1: a lot of farmers were exactly doing exactly the same thing.
3:55
Speaker 1: So if you're unable to actually, you know, sell those big... Well,
4:00
Speaker 1: you get a discount on those big heads, you're in
4:03
Speaker 1: a situation where, in the future, you don't have that ability. So,
4:07
Speaker 1: you know, I really... I think that... the price has
4:11
Speaker 1: got to be around that $ 160 at least for average.
4:15
Speaker 1: So that means you're top end, really you're looking at $ 200.
4:17
Speaker 2: Now, Velvet's had its issues over the previous couple of seasons, David.
4:23
Speaker 2: Is there genuine fear for the industry if these prices
4:26
Speaker 2: don't improve?
4:27
Speaker 1: I think so. I think what we're looking at, Andy,
4:29
Speaker 1: is people on class land that's sort of class 1
4:35
Speaker 1: to 4 will have to have a serious look at...
4:39
Speaker 1: whether they continue velveting and then whether they swing towards
4:41
Speaker 1: the venison side more so. I know a lot of
4:45
Speaker 1: it as commodities, you look at supply and demand in 1997,
4:52
Speaker 1: I think, the figure was around about that 500 tonne
4:56
Speaker 1: to shift. We actually in the last couple of years
5:00
Speaker 1: certainly went over 1,000 and even slightly higher than that.
5:05
Speaker 1: But I think this season we're going to be looking
5:07
Speaker 1: at sort of around that 800, 900 tonne. And I
5:11
Speaker 1: think that that's probably going to be a sweet spot
5:14
Speaker 1: as far as going into the market. So really, I
5:18
Speaker 1: think that people will be looking at that and saying, well,
5:22
Speaker 1: hang on, we should be getting a hell of a
5:24
Speaker 1: lot more than what we are at the moment. And
5:26
Speaker 1: if we don't, we'll look at other options. And there
5:29
Speaker 1: is other options out there.
5:31
Speaker 2: Regarding Velvet, is it realistic to deviate into other markets
5:34
Speaker 2: apart from the status quo?
5:37
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, no, they've moved into, there's a market going
5:42
Speaker 1: into Vietnam now. So, you know, it's quite a, it's
5:45
Speaker 1: a new market. It's one that we've got access into now. So,
5:51
Speaker 1: you know, there is opportunity there. So it'll be interesting
5:56
Speaker 1: to see just what sort of, pricing goes into that market.
6:01
Speaker 1: It's new, so it'll be interesting just to see what
6:04
Speaker 1: happens there. But no, the traditional markets are South Korea
6:07
Speaker 1: and China. The Chinese buy most of the velvet, and
6:11
Speaker 1: quite a considerable amount of that actually is processed and
6:16
Speaker 1: goes back into South Korea. So yes, it'll be interesting
6:20
Speaker 1: to see what comes out of the season. And when
6:23
Speaker 1: you look at it like that, those figures, I mean,
6:27
Speaker 1: if If you look at $ 100 now, I mean, if
6:29
Speaker 1: you continue at that sort of average for another 10 years,
6:33
Speaker 1: it's only going to be a purchasing value of about $ 60.
6:37
Speaker 2: Regarding the venison schedule, whenever I speak to yourself or
6:40
Speaker 2: Peter Allen, it's always a topic of hot conversation. What
6:44
Speaker 2: are we hearing at the moment? Like $ 12, is that
6:46
Speaker 2: on the table?
6:47
Speaker 1: Yes, yep, no, I understand that. I see published at
6:51
Speaker 1: the moment around about that $ 11. 50 average. But contracts, I'd imagine,
6:56
Speaker 1: around about that $ 12. And I think it'll go fairly,
7:00
Speaker 1: you know, reasonably strong right through into the autumn. It's
7:04
Speaker 1: just that supply is not there and, you know, that volume.
7:08
Speaker 1: So it'll certainly be, it'll hold up. And unless it's
7:12
Speaker 1: something unusual, you wouldn't know in the world these days.
7:16
Speaker 1: But yeah, no, I think Andy, $ 12 is there certainly.
7:21
Speaker 1: And hopefully going into the autumn, it's sitting up around
7:25
Speaker 1: close to 11. It would certainly help things. I think
7:31
Speaker 1: the other thing too that's happened over the last season
7:34
Speaker 1: or two is there's been a huge number of mixed-age
7:37
Speaker 1: velveting stags go through the system. So obviously I don't
7:41
Speaker 1: know whether that'll happen. Well, it'll depend a bit, I suppose,
7:45
Speaker 1: on just what I've been talking about, the price of
7:48
Speaker 1: velvet per kilogram. And if it's not... feasible for people,
7:53
Speaker 1: you know, business-wise to continue. They certainly will be going
7:56
Speaker 1: through the works.
7:57
Speaker 2: Now, David, a couple of things you want to comment
7:59
Speaker 2: on here regarding communication, but especially with fertiliser going on
8:04
Speaker 2: with helicopters at the moment due to ground conditions, a
8:06
Speaker 2: couple of issues.
8:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, just observation, Andy. You know, with this season
8:13
Speaker 1: being so wet, a lot of people are putting furt
8:16
Speaker 1: on with the choppers at the moment. Just observation. You know,
8:21
Speaker 1: there's been the odd complaint about choppers going over the
8:24
Speaker 1: top of properties, swinging across over the top of properties
8:28
Speaker 1: when there's a velvet herd in underneath them. And you'll
8:33
Speaker 1: obviously realise that that's pretty low. And also lammy mobs.
8:37
Speaker 1: And I think there's got to be some responsibility taken here.
8:40
Speaker 1: Some of the helicopter pilots need to look at themselves
8:45
Speaker 1: a bit, or companies, because you can do a couple
8:48
Speaker 1: of rounds of the property prior to doing that, and,
8:51
Speaker 1: you know, there's been the odd complaints, so I just
8:54
Speaker 1: thought I'd put it out there, you know, a bit
8:57
Speaker 1: of responsibility there, thinking of your neighbour, and, you know,
9:02
Speaker 1: it's not hard to do, so I just thought I'd
9:05
Speaker 1: mention that.
9:06
Speaker 2: It's an interesting one, given we haven't had this situation
9:10
Speaker 2: for October, where bulkies can't get into the paddocks, I suppose,
9:13
Speaker 2: so it's almost a case of the unknown for a
9:15
Speaker 2: lot of people in that instance.
9:17
Speaker 1: That's right, yep. No, it's... No, it's something to think
9:20
Speaker 1: about because, you know, you don't want broken legs or
9:22
Speaker 1: broken velvet heads or, you know, using lambs all mixed
9:26
Speaker 1: up or whatever. So it's just something to consider and
9:31
Speaker 1: think of others. So I just thought I'd put it
9:34
Speaker 1: out there. I've seen the... I've actually had first-hand experience.
9:40
Speaker 1: I know where we're going with this. So it's all
9:42
Speaker 1: very well letting people know that you're going to be
9:44
Speaker 1: doing it. It's a case of actually, you know.
9:49
Speaker 1: Making sure you don't swing across other properties. And in
9:57
Speaker 1: some cases it's impossible to do, but in most cases,
10:00
Speaker 1: you can actually avoid it.
10:02
Speaker 2: David Stevens, always appreciate your time on the muster.
10:06
Speaker 1: Thanks, Andy.
10:10
Speaker 2: David Stevens, a well-respected voice in the New Zealand deer industry,
10:14
Speaker 2: been doing it for over 40 years now. This is
10:17
Speaker 2: the muster on Hokanui. Up next from Balfour, we are
10:20
Speaker 2: travelling back down here to Gore and catching up with
10:21
Speaker 2: Sam Grant of Craig's Investment Partners.