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Felix Prehn - Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! 🚀 + Stock Market News 11 December 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Cash and cats is what we're going to be talking about here the next few minutes.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: I want to break down what the inflation data that just came out means for you, because it's tremendously important, and I also want to bust the four myths that I'm making the round of mainstream media right now regarding the stock market, so you can be the best informed investor out there.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: And some bonus breakout stocks.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Who wants bonus breakout stocks?
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Put a smiley in the live chat and if there are enough smileys, I'll give you a couple of bonus breakout stocks.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: And, of course, toledo is the one who sniffed these out.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Have you seen that little costume?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: There's also a little winter costume.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Look at that.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Isn't that cute?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: She's feeling wonderful again, by the way, which is fantastic news here, so let me share my screen with you here, and this is precisely what we're going to run through in the next few minutes, if I can find a pen.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: What the inflation data means for you.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: That's number one.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: That's the crucial thing here.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: And then two bust the four biggest myths of the stock market.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: And I'm seeing a lot of smileys, terry.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of smileys.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Terry either really wants bonus stocks or just wants to see more kittens?
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Love that?
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Guys so many, I can actually not read them out quickly enough.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: So brilliant, let's get straight into it then, shall we?
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Okay, if I'm allowed to see it here.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Okay, so we just got this data out, and economic data is insanely confusing because it doesn't really mean anything to anybody, right If I say to you inflation rate came in at 3.3%.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Is that low?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Is that high?
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Why does it matter?
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: Well, let me explain, okay.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: So the important thing always was to look for is what's the expectation?
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: The expectation was 3.3% and I'm loving all the hearts there.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Where is Winston?
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: He's snoozing next door.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: We just had a bit of a wrestle actually.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: We went outside You're making me digress.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: We went to the lovely park we have.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: We played a little bit and then a boar walks in, a very large boar, like larger than Winston.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: So I said okay, winston, let's go to the top end of the park.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: And just as we turned the corner of the top end of the park, a very large porcupine appears.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So we had to vacate the premises and hand them over to the wildlife, which I guess is fair enough.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: But anyway, back to core inflation.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: It came in at exactly the level expected.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: That is good news that deserves a smiley.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Why the market hates surprises, and with inflation at exactly the levels that we're expecting, what is going to happen next week?
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: What happens next week?
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: The Fed meets and the Fed decides what Interest rates.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: So we are expecting, talila and I, a rate cut next week, and that, of course, is fantastic news, especially for tech stocks, especially for fintech stocks like your SoFi's and your PayPal's and anybody who's in the kind of more risky side of life, your innovation stocks Think the ARK portfolio.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: That sort of stuff should do very well.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Why Lower interest rates mean what?
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Simply higher valuations for stocks, and especially for the riskier they are, the bigger the impact tends to be.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: So that is very, very good news.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: That's it.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: 500 likes Fox Gaming.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: My friend, you're back.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I love you for that and I appreciate the emails you sent me yesterday.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Super, super kind of you.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Fox is our new, is our new.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: He whips you into hitting the like button Better than I do, so I appreciate that because it really helps.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: My whole thing is that we want to reach more people, I want to teach more people.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I want to make sure you understand what's going on out there so you can make the most money from your money and actually get to real financial freedom.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: So this here is crucial.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Everyone keeps saying the rally can't last, it's too big, everything has gone up too much.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Right, I'm liking the little tiger emojis as well, richard.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: That's very, very funny.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: And yes, fox Gaming is now the new official ambassador.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: So if you think it's unusual to have years like the ones we're just having, where we're going up 20 to 30% right this year, well, do you know how often that happens?
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: These are the returns of the S&P make it a bit bigger for you.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: The returns of the S&P make it a bit bigger for you since 1928.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: So, like 100 years worth of data.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: On average, we've gone up 9.8% 9.8%.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: But the second most likely outcome the outcome that happens the second most often is what?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: It's?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: A 20 to 30% increase in the market.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: This is actually very, very, very common.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: This is not an abnormal year.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: This is actually a very normal year.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: So this is not some freakish incident that's never been repeated.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: No, we had it last year.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: We had it in 21.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: We had it in 2017 and 2009 and 2003 and 1999.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: And I'm not going to read out all the years.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: But you get the idea right.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: It happens a lot and in fact we have better years 30 to 40% gains also quite a lot right?
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Look at that column here.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: So people who say to you oh, the market only ever does 8% on average Bollocks, I say I now have a boy cat, which is what I'm thinking about.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: He has balls.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: We're going to have to do something about that poor thing.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I feel very sorry for him, but that's going to have to happen.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: So now this is the second thing Tech stocks.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Valuations are too high.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Palantir can't go any higher, right.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Have you looked at the pre-market?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I'll show you.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Can't go any higher, right.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Have you looked at the pre-market?
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: I'll show you Bloomberg Intelligence, which are two sentences I don't often put together.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence is sort of like, really Okay, they're not referring to the Mr Bloomberg who's become Mr, sort of misery Doomburg, I hate everything Elon Musk related.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Very odd, very odd.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: Chap Seems very unhappy with his billions.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I think I'd be quite happy with my billions when I get them.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: So what is going to happen?
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: The NASDAQ 100, so the 100 largest tech stocks get reassessed on December 13th, which is well, not tomorrow.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: The day after tomorrow, and every quarter they look at, well, who are now the largest ones?
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Well, guess who is now one of the largest ones?
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Palantir.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: We expect Palantir to be added to the NASDAQ 100.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: We expect Microstrategy to be added, equinix and Axon, and we expect SMCI, arm, moderna and Illumina to fall out of it.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Do you know a little ETF called QQQ you heard of the thing Biggest tech ETF in the world and then all the other tech ETFs that track the Nasdaq.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: They're going to have to buy Palantir, whether they like it or not.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: They're going to have to buy the bloody thing, and that's going to pour dollars into those stocks and will therefore make it harder for those stocks to dip.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Is that not a German accent?
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: It is, it is.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: I am 100% Germanic.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: To my, I can't do anything about it.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: To be honest, it's one of those things you get born with it stack with it for life.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: But so that's our myth number two.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Myth number three and four are super important, but what I want to also get to is what you also see is that there are winners and there are losers.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Right, and yes, the stock market goes up 9.8% on average, but in my humble opinion, you could potentially do a heck of a lot better.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Well, my opinion you could definitely do a lot better, but you have to do some studying and some risk management and you have to understand how to pick the winners.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: How do you pick the winners?
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: How do you pick a winner like Palantir or the breakouts we're about to look at as the bonus material here in a moment?
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: You still want the bonuses.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: You still want the bonuses.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Put a cat emoji in here.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing some nice ones and we'll run through some breakouts stocks.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: So if you actually want to learn how to spot those breakout stocks and not be reliant on you know feline chief financial analysts like he I mean, not everybody's got one of these you know he wakes up in the mornings and says, felix, you should go and buy some SoFi today, that sort of thing.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: She's very smart.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: She's been listening to me and watching me trade for more than a decade.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: So how do you then do that?
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Well, you watch the masterclass down below and, honestly, if you want to leave the stream right now and just sit down and take the next 30 minutes loving all the cat emojis, guys appreciate it.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Richard says hit the like button even better If you want to leave the stream right now and spend 30 minutes to actually elevate your skills, because if you want 2025 to be better, or even better than 2024, the only way you're going to achieve that is by elevating your skills, by being better at spotting the winners before they happen, because that's what I do and we're up what?
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: 200% this year, something like that.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: And how do we do that?
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: Go to felixfriendsorg, get free the link's also down below in the description and you just click on it and you watch it and you take notes and then you start looking at charts in a different way and you implement it and, of course, you add some risk management on top and your life will never be the same again.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: I promise you that, seriously, you will never look at a stock chart quite the same way again.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: You will see it's.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: It's like if you watch this and for those of you guys who've watched this, it's to me like when I was first explained this and I I did a stint in sit in banking, so that's why I learned it.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: It's like seeing the matrix and going, oh, my freaking god, how did I not know this?
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: How did I not see this?
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: So so watch it, my friends, and it'll change your life.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Now, myth number three as they say in my very charming native tongue, it's a lovely language, isn't it?
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: German?
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: It sounds like.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's very good for if you want to sort of be a villain, right, and you're about to kill somebody.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: But I've been saying the market's too hot, right.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin is at a hundred thousand, tech stocks are through the moon.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: What does this mean?
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: It must mean the crash is imminent.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: The crash videos are coming out on youtube.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: You know every, every other second.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Because it's very, very, very easy to make crash videos and it's quite a profitable endeavor.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: But the Fearing Greed Index and who makes this?
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Anybody know who makes this?
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Cnn?
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: It's the only useful thing that CNN provides the Fearing Greed Index.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: And, michael, you're super kind.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: New cat names New Terrence Bay, george.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I know it's harsh, isn't it?
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: They're so sweet and little.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: I've got two new kittens since Sunday.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, we're going to have to do that.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: I've never had a boy cat before.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: He's very sweet, he's very affectionate and quite confident.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: He sort of protects his little sister.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: But anyway, what does fear and greed say to you?
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: It's sitting at what Neutral right?
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Well, generally speaking, I would say, if you're contrarian, you buy here for the long haul and you take profits over here.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: But that and, of course, reality, is something everyone talks about that nobody actually has ever done, because psychologically that's almost an impossibility, because it's horrible to buy when the market's down and it's horrible to sell when the market's up because you feel like you're going to miss out, and actually you are going to miss out.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: So what do we do?
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Well, no matter where we are in the cycle, we look for breakouts and we buy them, regardless of the market.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: It does help, being an upward trend, for sure, that's an important part of it.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: But we're at neutral folks.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: We're actually at the lower end of neutral, which means what?
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: The opportunity to go higher is enormous.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: So we could go a lot higher.