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The Muster- Jeff Grant: The Week Of The Election · The Muster on Hokonui

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  Speaker 1: The Muster Political Roundup brought to you by BioCharge. Feed
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  Speaker 1: your soil and grow stronger systems with BioCharge.
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  Speaker 2: Visit biocharge.co.nz.
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  Speaker 1: Jeff Grant joins us to talk politics this afternoon on
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  Speaker 1: The Muster as we're in the last, or pretty much
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  Speaker 1: in the straight, in the lead up to the general election,
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  Speaker 1: 2026 edition. Good afternoon, Jeff. It's certainly, I think the
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  Speaker 1: correlation of the term is a marathon, not a sprint,
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  Speaker 1: and that's what we've seen.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, although the last six days are short of a bombshell,
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  Speaker 2: I don't think much will change. But this is, as
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  Speaker 2: I've said for some time, I think this is for
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  Speaker 2: the first real time under MMP. This is an election
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  Speaker 2: for the minority parties.
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  Speaker 1: This election, though, do you think there's a real possibility
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  Speaker 1: of election fatigue setting in out there amongst the voters?
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  Speaker 2: I've often made the comment I think the media have
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  Speaker 2: been more excited about this than the public this time around. And,
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  Speaker 2: you know, mainly because top sort of popped out of
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  Speaker 2: nowhere early on in terms of the campaign. And on
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  Speaker 2: that basis, they have regularly polled in around above the 5%.
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  Speaker 2: So they've, you know, legitimately got the media. And so
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  Speaker 2: on that basis, I think that's where the interest has
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  Speaker 2: really sort of peaked. But most people are probably sick
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  Speaker 2: of it by now.
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  Speaker 1: What are your thoughts around MMP?
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  Speaker 2: Look, I was never a fan of it right at
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  Speaker 2: the start. I actually do like proportional representation, but in
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  Speaker 2: a minor way, I was probably in favour of having
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  Speaker 2: 90 electorates and 30 on base as a party vote.
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  Speaker 2: I think the system, you know, it's better than New Zealand.
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  Speaker 2: New Zealand know how to use it. Voters normally get
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  Speaker 2: it pretty right. in terms of their voting. And so,
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  Speaker 2: you know, I'm not a fan of reviewing it. I
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  Speaker 2: think we've got a whole couple of generations that know
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  Speaker 2: how to work MMP and I think we'll see that
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  Speaker 2: on Saturday.
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  Speaker 1: Now, if we do happen to have a change of government,
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  Speaker 1: like Labour's been referred to in a lot of corners
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  Speaker 1: as being national light, what do you make of that?
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  Speaker 1: Do you think there'll be a big change on the
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  Speaker 1: farming landscape if we do have a change next week?
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  Speaker 2: Well, look, I think, firstly, the... Election on November 7th
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  Speaker 2: will trigger a process that I think will go beyond
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  Speaker 2: Christmas on the basis that there will not be a
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  Speaker 2: clear configuration similar to the three on the right and
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  Speaker 2: the opposition being led by Labour. I think that it
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  Speaker 2: will be more confused after November 7th and on that
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  Speaker 2: basis I think the minority parties will have more influence
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  Speaker 2: on the way the make-up of the new government is,
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  Speaker 2: either on the right or the left. So on that basis,
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  Speaker 2: you're either going to get not centre-right or centre-left, you're
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  Speaker 2: going to get a party that's probably going to be
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  Speaker 2: much more aligned to what the minorities have been saying.
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  Speaker 1: And that's the other thing with MMP, all this talk
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  Speaker 1: around overhang and extra seats, the possibility of an extra
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  Speaker 1: 10 MPs being in Parliament due to the MMP system,
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  Speaker 1: it's been very confusing.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I... The reality is under MMP the National
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  Speaker 2: Party tends to do well in the provincial and smaller
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  Speaker 2: cities and so they tend to get close or if
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  Speaker 2: not exceed their total percentage vote and so that looks
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  Speaker 2: like will be more extreme this time around and on
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  Speaker 2: top of that with the Māori Party if they succeed
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  Speaker 2: in say getting four seats they will be total overhang
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  Speaker 2: because they're more than likely only to get one percent
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  Speaker 2: of the vote so it will see a Parliament possibly
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  Speaker 2: of 124 or 126 seats. Yeah, it'll be interesting.
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  Speaker 1: To see how this pans out. Now, the Local Government
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  Speaker 1: Commission report is due out this month regarding all this
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  Speaker 1: talk on amalgamations.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, so the Commission has worked through Phase 2, as
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  Speaker 2: they call it, which was to look at the economics
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  Speaker 2: and also the practicality of either a two-unitary council or
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  Speaker 2: a single council with a range of local boards. They
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  Speaker 2: are intending to report, as I understand, mid-November. That may
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  Speaker 2: get delayed because of the election. And then on the
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  Speaker 2: basis of that, they will either make a decision one way,
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  Speaker 2: status quo, or that there will be a proposal around
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  Speaker 2: an option for change. And then they have to go
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  Speaker 2: through a process phase three, which is effectively consulting with
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  Speaker 2: the public and also the local government authorities within Southland
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  Speaker 2: and then a proposal will be final, which would require
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  Speaker 2: the constituents of the Southland Province to vote.
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  Speaker 1: Because the whole process, the arguments there, it's been, depending
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  Speaker 1: on who you speak to, a big waste of time
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  Speaker 1: with the election just around the corner, and I don't know,
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  Speaker 1: just people seem to lose focus very easily.
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  Speaker 2: Well, we'll get a rest for a week or two
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  Speaker 2: after the election, and then we'll probably be focusing on
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  Speaker 2: the Southland model for... And I think that, you know, inevitably,
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  Speaker 2: my view is there should be change. It just doesn't
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  Speaker 2: matter now what it might look like.
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  Speaker 1: It's still a long way away, though, if we do
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  Speaker 1: get change announced, though.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, I would have thought it's probably another 12 or
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  Speaker 2: 18 months after that because you're going to go through
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  Speaker 2: quite a process, they have to. And that will be
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  Speaker 2: also subject to... Central government, if you get a centre-left
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  Speaker 2: or a left-leaning government, it may have a different view
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  Speaker 2: about the future amalgamation of local government. And if we
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  Speaker 2: get a centre-right, there's still the proposals that each of
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  Speaker 2: the regional councils and territorial authorities put in. But my
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  Speaker 2: sense is that Commission 1 will probably come ahead of
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  Speaker 2: all that.
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  Speaker 1: You bring up an interesting point there, Geoff, and that
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  Speaker 1: is bipartisan agreement from the parties. This is something that
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  Speaker 1: needs to occur, though, because otherwise we're just going to
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  Speaker 1: see an exorbitant waste of money. And that's just not
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  Speaker 1: from this election now. But this is upcoming elections and
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  Speaker 1: it shouldn't happen.
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  Speaker 2: Look, I think it's one of the reasons why the
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  Speaker 2: minority parties have been polling better. I think people are
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  Speaker 2: looking for more consensus within the political system and We've
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  Speaker 2: seen a bit of that in recent times between Labour.
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  Speaker 2: A good example was the Indian FTA. The National Party
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  Speaker 2: couldn't get a majority with New Zealand First on their side,
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  Speaker 2: so they turned to Labour, and Labour supported the FTA.
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  Speaker 2: So I think you're going to see a bit more
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  Speaker 2: of that, and that'll be a bit of a signal
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  Speaker 2: from the election on November 7th, my view.
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  Speaker 1: Good on you, Geoff. Always appreciate your time. We'll chat again.
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  Speaker 2: Cheers. We'll catch you again, Andy.
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  Speaker 1: Bye. Jeff Grant, trying to make sense of what's happening
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  Speaker 1: with MMP. It's confusing for a lot of people, that's
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  Speaker 1: for sure. You're listening to the muster up next, Dean Ravage,
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  Speaker 1: farming at Blenheim. Blenheim!