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Week 4 Sleepers, Strange Lines, Must-Watch Games · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, we got a nor'easter barreling into Chestnut Hill
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: this weekend where wind gusts could top over 60 miles
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: an hour. Anywhere from like 2 to 7 inches of rain.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: And Virginia Tech is about to walk into that. Basically
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: like a man walking into a car wash with brushes
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: turned all the way to 11, right? In Fayetteville, Arkansas
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: finished last season with 10 straight losses. And they tacked
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: on two more already in 2026. And, of course, Saturday
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: night they've got to deal with Tulsa. And even if
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: it's Tulsa with a backup quarterback, that is still a
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: terrifying proposition because if you can't beat Tulsa, I mean,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: who knows what. In El Paso, UTEP has got 17%
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: of the spread tickets against Oregon State and 85% of
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: the money. Dude, something's going on here. Somebody's about to
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: lose a truck payment, I think. So we've got to
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: figure out which one. Can you believe it? It's football.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I've been watching it for 40 years. Are you kidding me?
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: You're listening to Winning Cures Everything. Game day, baby. Wake
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: up or get out. Here's your host. A confident young man.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: A superb athlete. Gary Segers. Welcome in. This is Winning
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Cures Everything. It's a college football podcast. I'm your host,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Gary Segers, at GaryWCE on all the different socials. It
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: is week four. Conference play is here. We still got
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: some non-conference games we got to sort through. But let's
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: go and get to work. Why not? All right, you
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: guys ought to know how we do it on Fridays, right?
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Before we get to the games, we check the board.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Because the number, you know, it doesn't move by accident.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: Somebody pushed the numbers there. So let's start with the
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: biggest one. We're going to start with the spread. Utah
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: and Iowa State. Utah opened 11.5. Right now it is
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: at 7.5 and it has sat there basically all week
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: because it opened there on, I believe, Sunday morning and
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: then was immediately hit. And I'm talking like crazy quick. Um,
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: So four-point slide towards the Cyclones. 64% of the spread tickets,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: 90% of the handle is still on Utah at minus 7.5.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: So the money is riding with Utah, and the number
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: walked the other way anyway. So that's the kind of
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: thing that makes you cock your head sideways and say, huh?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Missouri and Mississippi State opened state by three, got as
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: high as 6.5. State's pulling 62% of the tickets, and...
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, the places that I trust say it's 99%
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: of the handle. That's about as clean of a steam
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: move as you were ever going to see, right? Everybody's
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: on the same side of the boat. Now, it has
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: come back just a touch. I think it's five and
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: a half right now. But that is, I mean, that's
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: a lot of love on Mississippi State, right? Oregon-USC. Oregon
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: opened 5.5. It went to USC minus 1.5 or 2.5
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: last week. Then USC didn't look very good against Rutgers,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: and now it's back to Oregon minus 3. I believe
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: you can find some 2.5s out there. Big bettors are
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: on the Ducks. Oregon's got 35% of the tickets but
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: 91% of the money. So the big bettors are on
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: the Ducks, and the line still went back towards USC. Now,
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: I've been... It's a strange market. Strange market for this
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: one because I don't think anybody really knows what to
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: expect from either one of those. A couple more quick
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: ones to hit on. Wisconsin at Penn State, 11.5 down
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: to 9.5, so two points towards the Badgers. Oregon State
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: at UTEP, 12.5 down to 10.5, two towards the Miners.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: We're going to come back to that one. I've got
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: some things that we've got to discuss there. Arizona, Washington State,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: that opened 12.5. It's now 10.5. And we've got a
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: housekeeping note. Texas and Tennessee has been bouncing around a
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: little bit. We had it at 5.5 earlier this week.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Some books are showing much lower now. So, you know,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: make sure you shop around a little bit. I think
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: there's 4.5s out there. It got down to 3.5 at
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: one point. It's back up towards Texas now. But it's
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: been bouncing around, so keep an eye on that one. Now,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: as far as the totals, and, you know, this is
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: where the weather kind of starts poking in. Virginia Tech
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: and Boston College that I opened the show with, Opened
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: around 54. It's now down to 48.5. That's a 5.5
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: point drop. And that is 1,000% based on that storm
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: that's coming through. So lots to pay attention to when
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: it comes to the weather up in Chestnut Hill. Vanderbilt
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: and Auburn opened 52.5. It's up to 55.5. South Carolina, Alabama, 51.5.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: It's now up to 54.5. Nebraska, Michigan State. That's down 3, 51.5
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: to 48.5. James Madison and Old Dominion is down 3, 47.5
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: to 44.5. UCLA and Maryland. That's down 3, 59.5 to 56.5,
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: and that's based on that wind from that nor'easter. Oklahoma
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: and Georgia, down 2, 45.5 to 43.5. Kansas State at Cincinnati.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: That has gone up 53.5 to 55.5. Now, Let's talk
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: about tickets versus money. This is my favorite part. When
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: the ticket count and the money count don't match, that
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: means a small number of folks are betting a lot
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: of money. And it doesn't mean that they're right. It
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: just means that somebody feels like they know something. Central
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Michigan plus 41.5 against Miami, Florida. 10% of the bets
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: are on Central Michigan. 78% of the money is on
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Central Michigan. 41 points. I don't get it. I wouldn't
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: touch it. but a lot of people have. UTEP plus 10.5,
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: 17% of the bets, 85% of the money is on
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: the minors. Now that one's interesting to me. Very interesting.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati plus 6.5 against Kansas State, 18% of the bets,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: 82% of the money is on Cincy. Oklahoma, Georgia under 43.5,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: 33% of the bets, 96% of the money on the under.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: So there's some people... that are willing to take a
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: chance on an over, but they ain't putting a lot
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: of money on it. Iowa, Michigan, under 37.5. 38% of
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: the bets are on the under 96% of the money.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: When the total is 37 and change, and the big
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: money still says under, to me, that is somebody that
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: has watched Iowa football for a long time. From what
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: I understand, teams that have scored 50 points and then
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: had to play Iowa the next week, The under is 21-0.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: So Michigan put up 52 last week on UTEP. And
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: now they've got to play Iowa this week. Yeah. So
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: we've got the oddball out here as well. Wisconsin Penn State,
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: the under, has 86% of the money, just 22% of
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: the tickets. And the total went up from 42.5 to 44.5.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: The money and the move are pointing in the opposite direction.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: So file that one away. We'll see what that looks like.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Weather watch. Now, I brought up the Nor'easter. No games
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: have been moved. Several are going to be affected, right?
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Virginia Tech and Boston College, that went to 11 a.m.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: on the ACC network. Gust near 40 miles an hour,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: sustained winds around 20, rain starting late Friday night, going
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: all day Saturday. Now, the good news for BC, I mean,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: they play on AstroTurf. It's not going to turn into
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: a disaster out there, but you're not throwing the ball
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: 40 yards into that. I think James Franklin is probably
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: going to have his run game ready, but this is
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: not something that you're going to want to throw the
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: ball in. Army at Temple. This one's a Friday game,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: so you'll see this one tonight. 3 o'clock ESPN, gusts
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: up to 25, some rain. Honestly, wind ain't going to
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: bother Army one bit. They throw it just about as
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: often as that, you know. Well, we won't get into that.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: Howard at Rutgers is also on Friday. Rutgers, it feels
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: like a lot of weeknight games. Maybe it's not. But
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: they're playing at 6 o'clock, Big Ten Network. Wind, maybe
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: a little more rain than what Philly gets. UCLA and Maryland,
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: that was 1230 p.m. Central on Big Ten Network. No rain,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: gusts of 20 to 25 through the afternoon. If they're
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: wanting to throw the ball, they could be sailing into
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: the next county. So something to pay attention to. Wisconsin
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: at Penn State, this one's 4 o'clock on Peacock. Possible
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: 25 mile an hour gusts, no rain, so keep an
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: eye out for big gusts during field goal attempts and
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: stuff like that. Certainly something to watch out for. What
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: else do we have? Notre Dame-Purdue, I think if you're
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: heading out to that one, looks like it's going to
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: be perfect weather. So I wouldn't worry too much about
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: that one. All right. If you're getting any value out
• 9:33
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• 9:35
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• 9:39
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• 9:42
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• 9:48
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• 9:54
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• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the undercard on Friday. Now, earlier this week,
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: we went deep on 25 of the biggest games on
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: the board. Today, we're going to talk about some of
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: the other ones. Like the games that nobody's really talking about.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Army and Temple. Temple is 1 and 2, but... I
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: wouldn't let that fool you, right? They beat Rhode Island.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: They played Penn State tough. They lost last week 49-48
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: in overtime at Toledo. It was one of the best
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: games of the whole weekend, maybe of the whole season.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: We'll see. Right now, Army is favored by three. Total
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: is 48.5. This one is on Friday afternoon, 3 p.m. Central.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Interesting spot. From what I understand, y'all correct me if
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong, this has something to do with an ACDC concert.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: I went to see ACDC in St. Louis. That is
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: an insanely big stage show that they got. But who knows?
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: Either way, this is an early game, which means you're
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: going to have football on while you're still at the
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: office on Friday. That's a good thing. Army, they are 1-1.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: They already dropped their American opener to South Florida. They
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: lose this one. I think the conference title hopes are
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: probably just about cooked, right? And the matchup that jumps
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: off the page, I think, is Temple's run defense is
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: number 118 in EPA per rush, number 120 in rushing
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: success rate, and you're playing Army, and there could be wind.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: And that ain't great, right? Like, that's just not good.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: It's like leaving the back door open when, you know,
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: there's mosquitoes out and everything. It's just a disaster. Don't
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: do that. A fun note for this, Casey Keeler is
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: coaching in his 400th career game on Friday. He's only
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: the 24th head coach in NCAA history to hit that mark.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: And the guy knows what he's doing. Absolutely knows what
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: he's doing. Temple is 24-13 against the spread after a
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: straight-up loss since 2020. Road teams are 5-1 against the
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: spread in the last six Army and Temple meetings. Just
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: a little something to pay attention to because, you know,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: this one is... Army is the road team, and they're
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: only favored by three. Just something to pay attention to.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Navy is playing at UAB on Friday. Navy is a
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: seven-point favorite. This one 6 p.m. Central on ESPN. Total
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: is 51.5. Navy starting quarterback Braxton Woodson, he's out with
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: a lower leg injury. He picked that up against FAU.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: So Jackson Gutierrez led a couple of touchdown drives in relief.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Navy has had two weeks off since that loss to FAU.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: The offense is averaging close to nine yards a carry.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: And UAB has given up 200-plus rushing yards in each
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: of their last two games. So even without Woodson, you
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: know what Navy's going to do. They're just going to
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: line it up and run it right at you. Navy
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: did win last year's meeting 38-24. They're 3-0 all-time against UAB.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: We'll see what that looks like. If UAB can move
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: the ball on offense, then we're good. If not, then...
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: You know, it is what it is. UAB 22-14 against
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: the spread at home since 2020. AAC favorites of 7-12 points.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: They are 76-53-6 against the spread since 2015. Now let's
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: move to Saturday and let's get a look at what
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: this is going to be. Tulsa and Arkansas is an
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: interesting one. That one's on Saturday night, 7 p.m. Central
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Time on SEC Network. Arkansas a 6.5 point to 7
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: point favorite, depending on the book. Total is 53.5. This
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: one's got a little juice to it, right? Tulsa is
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: chasing a 4-0 start. And this, you know, with that
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: win over Oklahoma State, if they get this one, I mean,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: this could set up, based on the way their schedule looks,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: this could set up for them to potentially make a
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: playoff run. Nobody really wants to talk about it, but
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: this is a team that was 50-1, I believe, to
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: win the AAC. And they can start out 4-0. That's
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: pretty wild. Pretty wild. They're coming off of their first
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: shutout in 24 years. And if they win Saturday, it's
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: going to be their first win over Arkansas in 50 years. So,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: here's the revenge angle. I mean, you're really... stretching for this,
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: but either way. Last October, Ryan Silverfield, who was at Memphis,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: he beat Trey Lamb's Tulsa team 45-7. Now Silverfield is
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: in Fayetteville, and Lamb gets another crack at it. Right?
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Silverfield didn't give anything away this week. No updates on
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: left tackle. Broussard, the linebacker, Bradley Shaw, and their punter,
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Gavin Rush, got hurt against Georgia. But Silverfield didn't say anything.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: He wouldn't say how he's going to split quarterback reps
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: between KJ Jackson and AJ Hill. Like, since it's a
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: non-conference game, the SEC availability report is not required. So,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: you know, we're kind of flying blind until warm-ups. And
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: it's the first Arkansas game this season that is not
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: on regular TV. So it's going to be on, like,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: SEC Network Plus. Streaming only. Interesting. Very interesting. Tulsa is
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: 27-16-1 against the spread in road and neutral games over
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: the last six seasons, so they tend to play better
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: on the road. Teams coming off of a home loss
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: to a top 10 team are 125, 157, and 2
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: against the spread in their next game. And Arkansas just
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: lost a home to Georgia. So it fits the situation.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: App State and NC State. This is an interesting one. 6.30 p.m.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Central on ESPNU. NC State right now at 13.5 point favor,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: total of 55.5. It feels like NC State is still
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: picking glass out of their teeth. From last week. You know,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: that 35-31 loss at Vanderbilt on the, you know, fumble
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: in the end zone on the last play of the game. Like, just,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, you want to talk about brutal. That was brutal.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: App State comes in undefeated. Their quarterback, Malachi Singleton, is
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: coming off a career-high 331 yards against Charlotte. He leads
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the Sun Belt in passing yards per game, total offense,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: and in efficiency. But App has never beaten NC State.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: like the Wolfpack lead this one six to O or
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: six to nothing, uh, as far as wins and losses
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: and app has committed double digit penalties in each of
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: the last two games, like pretty sloppy stuff. NC state
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: is not sure about their tight end, uh, Vanderplug, which
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: what a name, right? Uh, he's played one total snap
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: over the last two games. I don't know if we're
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: going to see much more of that. Um, NC State
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: is 6-15 against the spread in non-conference games over the
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: last four seasons. But there's some ratings out there that
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: say that they are the most underpriced favorite of the week. Like,
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: the trends say to fade them. The numbers say to
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: lay it. Pick your poison on this one. I ain't
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: touching it. I ain't getting close to this one. How
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: do you pick yourself up off the mat after what
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: they let happen? I mean, that's just... Like, if this
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: team has quit, If they are just done with the
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: coaching staff and whatnot, we'll see a change there eventually.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: But boy, that is something. Just something. Oregon State and UTEP.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: I brought this one up a couple of times earlier.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: You know, the money split that I brought up. Oregon State, 10.5
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: point favorite. This one's on Mountain West Plus. I think
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: you can watch it on their website, actually. Not Mountain
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: West Plus. What is this? No, maybe it is Mountain
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: West Plus. UTEP's in the Mountain West, right? I'm looking
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: at this. It says MW +. Yeah, I think that's
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: what that is. I think that's the website. I think
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: you can go to the Mountain West website. Anyway, all right,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: total is 54.5. This one's 8 p.m. Central Time. So
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: UTEP has been pretty rough. They lost at Oklahoma and
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: at Michigan by a combined 103-17, and they rank 137th
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: in total offense against FBS teams. This is the first
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: ever meeting between these two programs. Kalshi still has Oregon
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: State around 78% to win outright, but the big money
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: is taking UTEP and the points. The line, as I
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, has already moved two points towards UTEP. But
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: the trends do go the other way, though. UTEP 10-25
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: against the spread at home since 2020. Oregon State 27-15
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: against the spread after a straight-up win since 2016. So
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: it's big money against long history. Somebody has got to
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: be wrong here. I'm curious. I kind of like the
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Oregon State team total. I don't know what UTEP's offense
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: is going to look like. Because I know Oregon State
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: ain't got much of a defense. And I wouldn't expect
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: UTEP to be able to do much against Oklahoma or Michigan. So,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: you know, this is an interesting, interesting spot. James Madison
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: and Old Dominion. This is tricky to me. James Madison
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: is up to 5.5 for a six-point favorite. It's 5 p.m.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Central Time on God's Time Zone, of course, on ESPN +.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Total is 44.5. JMU is 3-0. They're averaging almost 45
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: points a game under their new head coach, Billy Napier.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Entirely new team, even though they made the playoff last year.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion has got a quarterback problem. Their starter, Quinn Hennick,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: has been banged up. Against East Carolina, he went 8
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: of 20 for 94 yards and a pick. The backup
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: is a Washington State transfer who lost his job out
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: there because of interceptions. So that's not good. But as
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: far as the trends go, Old Dominion 10-3 against the
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: spread in their last 13 as a conference underdog. But
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: they are 12-26 against the spread at home since 2019.
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: So do with that what you will. The market dropped
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: three points on this, on the total. You know, there's
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: some strength ratings out there that have this as a
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: big overprojection. And we're talking like a lot of points
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: over the 44.5. Market says under, model says over. You know,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: we'll keep an eye on that one. Georgia Tech and Stanford, 48.5
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: is the total here. This Georgia Tech injury report is long,
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: like holy mackerel long. Georgia Tech is favored by 3.5 here.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: It's 9.30 p.m. Central Time, God's time zone on ESPN.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: It's a weird spot, very weird spot. Georgia Tech is
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: going to be without their starting defensive end, starting offensive tackle, safety,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: Savion Riley. Running back Malachi Hosley is questionable. They're going
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: to be missing three freshman receivers. On the other side,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Stanford's offensive line has struggled in the last two games.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: They got guys back and still got walloped by Duke.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: Not good. And the trends are ugly on both sides
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: of this. Georgia Tech, 12-28, or sorry, 12-28-1 in their
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: last 41 as a favorite. Stanford, 11-21-1 against the spread
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: in their last 32 home games. Not good. It's late night,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: West Coast, two teams that don't cover I wouldn't touch this.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: That is, watch it with a snack, not with a
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: ticket game. If anything, if anything, I would take an
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: under here. But, do you trust it? Like, I wouldn't. 6.30 p.m.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Central on CBS. Arizona goes to Washington State. This is
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: the old Pac-12 reunion here. Arizona favored by 10.5, total
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: of 47.5. Arizona has not covered a spread yet this season.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: They beat Northern Illinois pretty bad last week, 42-17, but
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: they were a 32... yeah, 32 point favorite there. So
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: they didn't cover that one either. Uh, Washington state coming
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: off of their first win under Kirby Moore. They had
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: two running backs go over a hundred yards in the
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: same game for the first time since Oh five. Not bad.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: A nice little milestone here. Noah Fafita. He passed Nick
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Foles last week to become Arizona's all time leader in
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: career passing yards. That's kind of cool. And, um, Oh, trends.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: So Arizona, 21-34 against the spread in road and neutral
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: games since 2016. So I'm going to guess that's why
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are kind of at that, along
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: with the fact that Arizona is 0-3 against the spread
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: this year. But they have looked pretty good. You know,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: nothing crazy. Let's do some quick hitters. Sam Houston, Texas Tech.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: This one is odd. There's a lot of ratings out
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: there that have Texas Tech by... Way less than the number.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: It opened 37.5. It's all the way down to 34.5
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: at this point. It's a big gap. Very big gap.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: Sam Houston has 95% of the spread handle. I don't
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: know that I would necessarily trust him, but, you know,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: it is what it is. Hawaii at Wyoming, 2 o'clock
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: on the CW. Wyoming 16-5 against the spread in their
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: last 21 home conference games as an underdog. But, man,
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: they are bad. It is going to be windy in Laramie, so...
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: Another one I probably wouldn't touch. Hawaii, or sorry, Middle
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: Tennessee at Jacksonville State. That's a 6 o'clock ESPN Plus game.
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee 0-10 against the spread in conference play after
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: an upset win. 0-10. I mean, that's crazy. UMass at
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Sacramento State, 8 p.m. on ESPN Plus. UMass is 1-9
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: against the spread in their last 10 as a favorite.
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: But this UMass team does look a lot better. They
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: beat Rutgers and kind of whipped them to start the season.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: They've looked good, but you're taking them as a favorite
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: all the way out west. And yes, this is a
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: bad Sacramento State team. If I was going to do anything,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: I would take UMass. I'd probably take UMass team total over.
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: I think there's some 26.5s out there. I'd probably go
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: with that because I think they're going to be able
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: to throw the ball here. Northern Illinois at Georgia State.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: 1 o'clock on ESPN +. Northern Illinois plus 10 has
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: 97% of the spread handle. And Georgia State is just
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: 7-17 against the spread at home since 2022. I think
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: Georgia State's going to be able to score here, but
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know. And then USF at Bowling Green. 4
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: o'clock on ESPN +. USF has gone over in 10
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: of their last 12 as a road favorite. I would
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: pay attention to South Florida. I'm curious about this team.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Bowling Green is really bad. Really bad, but it may
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: be playing over because I do think they're going to
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: be able to score there. All right, let's hit the
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: trend buffet. This is a few bigger picture angles for
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: the whole weekend. Number one, when 75% or more of
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: the money is on one side, that side is $ 621 million.
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: and 684 against the spread since 2022. So the side
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: with all the money is not automatically the smart side.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Remember that when you see these lopsided splits, okay? Number
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: two on Saturday games, the side with the most bets,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: or sorry, on non-Saturday games, the side with the most
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: bets is 296 and 241 against the spread since 2022.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: That is a winning number. So this week, that is
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: going to be Army, Navy, Indiana, and Clemson on Friday night.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Number three, Big Ten favorites of 17 to 30.5 with
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: a total of 56 or less. Those have gone under
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: 42 and 19 in conference play since 2017. So this week,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: that is Northwestern and Indiana and Illinois, Ohio State. So
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: look for the unders on those. Number four, Baylor is
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: 0 and 6 against the spread after a win going
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: back to 2025. Colorado is 12 and 5 against the
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: spread after a straight-up loss. Baylor's coming off of a win.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: Colorado coming off of a loss. You guys do the math. And, man,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: it really does feel like... So, Baylor's getting D.J. Lagway back.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: Colorado had to kick a couple guys off the team.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: Looked terrible going to Northwestern. Just... Whew. That's a hold-your-nose-and-bet-it
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: kind of thing. And number five, home teams looking for revenge...
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: while catching 30 or more points, are 19-4 against the
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: spread in their last 23. Purdue is at 27.5 against
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame right now. If that number climbs to 30,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: keep an eye on it. Otherwise, I don't think we've
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: got a spot for that right now. But that thing,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: you know, it can climb. Everybody likes betting the Irish
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: on game day. All right, real quick, if we save
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: you from even one bad parlay this season, this thing
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: has already paid for itself. So swing by buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: You can support the show there. It's $ 5 a month,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: $ 50 for the year. It supports the show. It keeps
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: the lights on. It keeps the coffee hot. All that
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: good stuff. So thank you guys that are already members.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: And there is a large number of you. But yeah,
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: I put all of these stat sheets for every single
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: FBS vs. FBS game up there. I give you my
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: official plays. And... You know, I toss a few more
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: things out there. Like, I give you the notes for
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: the recaps and stuff like that. Like, from the YouTube show. So,
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: if you want those, you can get them over at buymeacoffee.com
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: slash winningcures. All right, let's do a roadmap for the weekend.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Let's do a watch guide, all right? You know, get
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: your remote, get your snacks. We're going to plan it
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: all out. All of these times are central time, okay? Friday,
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: we're going to start at 3 o'clock. Army at Temple.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: 6 o'clock, you got Navy at UAB. Eh, interesting. 7 p.m.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: on Fox, you got Northwestern at Indiana. That's interesting if
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: for no other reason than Chip Kelly looks like he's
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: got that Northwestern offense fixed. Aiden Shiles looks like a
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: legit quarterback now. And Indiana is favored by almost three touchdowns,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: if not three exactly right now. And then, of course,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: the late slate, you got Clemson at Cal. That one's
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. Um, I've got two different sites pulled up
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: that have two different times. I think it's... I thought
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: it was 9.30 Eastern. But it might be 9.30 Central.
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure. Either way, it's the late game on ESPN.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Clemson at Cal. We're going to see what's going on.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Clemson has Miami next week. Saturday, the 11 a.m. window.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Your headliner's going to be Texas at Tennessee on ABC.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: That is... I think that's the appointment TV to start
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: the day. Your big noon kick, you've got Illinois at
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. You've got Wake Forest at Louisville, Colorado at Baylor.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest at Louisville is interesting on ESPN. Virginia Tech
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: at Boston College. That one's on ACC Network. That's the
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: Northeaster game. And if you like watching weather and whatnot,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: then that could be an interesting one. Sneaky good game,
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: San Diego State at Toledo on CBS Sports Network. That
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: should be a fun 11 a.m. game. Now, your midday games,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: the ones that start at kind of odd times, big
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Ten Network UCLA at Maryland that's 1230 Notre Dame at
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Purdue on Peacock is at one o'clock and then Northern
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: Illinois and Georgia State like it do we think that
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: Georgia State actually has things figured out I'm curious about
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: it all right let's look at the afternoon all right
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: after it yeah You're going to need two TVs and
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: a pretty understanding spouse for the afternoon. Ole Miss at
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: Florida on ABC at 2.30. Oklahoma at Georgia on ESPN
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: at 2.30. Iowa at Michigan on CBS at 2.30. And
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: then the rest of these, you can just kind of
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: keep an eye on. You might use your quad screen,
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: you know, YouTube TV. You might use your phone. But
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: you got Utah at Iowa State on Fox. TCU at
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: UCF on FS1. The best G6 game of the weekend,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: Boise State at Western Michigan on ESPN2. Hawaii at Wyoming
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: is on the CW. Houston at Georgia Southern on ESPNU.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: Vandy at Auburn, 315 on SEC Network. Peacock streaming only,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin at Penn State. We're going to find out whether
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: or not Wisconsin is legit. Really, whether or not Penn
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: State is legit. Nebraska at Michigan State on Big Ten
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: Network at 4. That one, Nebraska a 5.5 point favorite,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: and they are awful on the road typically. But they
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: have looked really, really good, not only on defense, but
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: also on offense with Anthony Calandria, the new quarterback. So
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: something to pay attention to there. Primetime? All right, so
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: your big-time primetime games, Oregon at USC on NBC, Texas
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: A & M at LSU on ABC, and that's the
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: anxiety bowl. Whoever loses that one is in major, major trouble.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: Major trouble. South Carolina at Alabama is on ESPN at 6.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: K-State at Cincy, ESPN 2 at 6. JMU at Old
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Dominion is on ESPN +. You need your streamer for
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: that one. That's 5 o'clock. Central Michigan and Miami, probably
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: not going to be much of a game, but still,
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: if you want to watch the Hurricanes, that's at 5.30
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: on the CW. Oklahoma State at West Virginia, that is
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: a fascinating, fascinating ballgame. FS1 at 6. CBS, as in
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Big CBS. 630 Arizona State, or sorry, Arizona at Washington State.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: ESPNU has got App State at NC State. SEC Network,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: Missouri at Mississippi State. That's going to be fun. And
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: then SEC Network Plus, Tulsa and Arkansas. I brought that
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: one up earlier. Late Night, if you're a diehard. Mountain
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: West Plus, you got UTEP hosting Oregon State at 8.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Rice and Fresno on the CW at 9. Georgia Tech,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: Stanford on ESPN at 9.30. Air Force in Nevada. That
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: one's at 9.30 on FS1 and then on Fox at
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: 10 p.m. Minnesota at Washington. So if you're still up
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: for Minnesota-Washington, you're either a real one or you've got
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: a ticket on it or you're on the West Coast.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Either way, I'm going to respect it. All right. That
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: is going to do it for us. One more time, subscribe,
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: leave a review, and if you want to support the show,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: head over to buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures.com Yeah, I can't wait.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: I can't wait. This is going to be a lot
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: of fun. It's going to be a good weekend. The
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: chaos begins now. Take care of yourself. Take care of
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: each other. God bless college football, and hopefully all of
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening to Winning
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment, follow at
• 33:12
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