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Bearish vs Bullish Crypto Weekend🚨 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:06
Speaker 1: Let's get into Bear's versus Bulls. Today we'll be breaking
0:08
Speaker 1: down some of the bad news, but also some of
0:10
Speaker 1: the good news. You guys want to stick around. My
0:11
Speaker 1: name is Paul Barren. Welcome back in the tech path.
0:14
Speaker 1: Let's roll in, and of course I want to thank
0:16
Speaker 1: our sponsor, that's Coinbase. This would be relevant here in
0:18
Speaker 1: a minute because there's some big coin based news and
0:21
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0:23
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0:26
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0:30
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0:33
Speaker 1: make your first trade. Maybe you want to do it
0:36
Speaker 1: on Bitcoin ethereum, whatever it might be. But use our
0:38
Speaker 1: link down below. It's going to help you, guys get
0:40
Speaker 1: going and off you will be to the races. I
0:42
Speaker 1: want to open up the show today with, of course,
0:46
Speaker 1: the biggest news right now around the world, which is
0:49
Speaker 1: what's happening with Israel and Iran.
0:51
Speaker 2: Take a look.
0:52
Speaker 3: The Trump administration initially emphasizing overnight that it was not
0:55
Speaker 3: involved in these attacks, saying Israel had taken unilateral action.
0:59
Speaker 4: Here.
0:59
Speaker 3: The President Trump this morning standing strongly by Israel in
1:03
Speaker 3: a few posts, saying in the last few hours that
1:05
Speaker 3: he gave iran chance after chance to make a deal,
1:08
Speaker 3: but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how
1:11
Speaker 3: close they got, they just couldn't get it done. So
1:13
Speaker 3: a couple of things guys to highlight from these posts.
1:15
Speaker 5: The first is the.
1:16
Speaker 3: President appearing here to show more explicit support for the
1:19
Speaker 3: attacks than his secretary of State did Rubio emphasizing Israel
1:23
Speaker 3: acting alone, and the President highlighting how this came only
1:26
Speaker 3: after the US's preferred options hadn't worked. And then secondly,
1:30
Speaker 3: he talks about this idea of a second chance. The
1:32
Speaker 3: President is continuing to shepherd around toward a negotiated nuclear
1:36
Speaker 3: deal even after these attacks. Now, as you mentioned a
1:39
Speaker 3: few minutes ago, the next round of those talks had
1:41
Speaker 3: been set for Sunday, So I've asked about those the
1:44
Speaker 3: status of them. We will have to see if they
1:46
Speaker 3: still take place, and of course what they look like.
1:48
Speaker 3: And then finally, just in the meantime, both Israel and
1:51
Speaker 3: the US today bracing for retaliation.
1:53
Speaker 1: As soon as today, all right, so US and Israel
1:57
Speaker 1: bracing for retaliation. This could continue to play into the
2:01
Speaker 1: markets right now, almost turning thirty five, MILI coming off
2:04
Speaker 1: and liquidated in the past thirty or sixty minutes. This
2:06
Speaker 1: was a course last night, and I think the key here, guys,
2:10
Speaker 1: is that this isn't over. I think we will continue
2:12
Speaker 1: to see some market pressures. Now, how far and how
2:15
Speaker 1: does it play out is the real question. But if
2:17
Speaker 1: you look at this long term kind of zoom out,
2:20
Speaker 1: these kind of skirmishes have happened before. The question is
2:23
Speaker 1: is this one a bad one enough to push bitcoin
2:27
Speaker 1: down under one hundred k? Bitcoin of course came in
2:29
Speaker 1: at under one oh three. It hit one oh two
2:32
Speaker 1: for a while, and of course that I think is
2:35
Speaker 1: what we all are going to be asking. Is there
2:37
Speaker 1: going to be opportunity here for you to go back
2:39
Speaker 1: into the market, maybe brand new people coming into the
2:41
Speaker 1: market for the first time. All of this centered around
2:44
Speaker 1: where Trump's position is too, and that is maybe a
2:47
Speaker 1: little bit more hockey is here in terms of the warfront.
2:50
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit surprised about that. But at the
2:52
Speaker 1: same time, they were supposed to have those talks with
2:55
Speaker 1: Iran this weekend that's been called off.
2:58
Speaker 2: Hopefully Trump can put something.
3:01
Speaker 1: Together, pull a rabbit out of the hat and get
3:03
Speaker 1: that back to the table, because I think that would
3:05
Speaker 1: at least help soften the issue if they can some
3:08
Speaker 1: well somewhat create a little bit of a daytime between
3:11
Speaker 1: Israel bitcoin.
3:13
Speaker 2: If it hits one hundred k right now.
3:15
Speaker 1: Five point six bill and leverage lungs are set to
3:18
Speaker 1: be liquidated.
3:19
Speaker 2: This is just two close guys.
3:21
Speaker 1: So this is something that you have to watch for.
3:24
Speaker 1: Five point six billion in leverage launch could be enough
3:27
Speaker 1: of a juice to cause pressure in the markets to
3:31
Speaker 1: see that one hundred k hit, So be on the
3:33
Speaker 1: lookout for that. If it does happen, let me know
3:35
Speaker 1: down in the comments below. Would you buy bitcoin in
3:38
Speaker 1: again at under one hundred k? Drop it in the
3:41
Speaker 1: comments down below. A couple other things I want to
3:44
Speaker 1: hit on right here. Ten year treasury yield down to
3:46
Speaker 1: its lowest level more than a month. Of course, we've
3:48
Speaker 1: seen this before. Another thing that you have to kind
3:50
Speaker 1: of compare is how does this play out within the markets.
3:54
Speaker 1: And one of the things that we're looking at is
3:57
Speaker 1: the inflation versus stagflation, because.
4:00
Speaker 2: This is something that we've seen.
4:01
Speaker 1: The inflation numbers earlier this week slightly up less than expected.
4:06
Speaker 1: Here is Mohammed breaking it down a little bit further.
4:09
Speaker 2: Take a look.
4:11
Speaker 4: It is taxlationary. The question call is how tax flationary
4:16
Speaker 4: is it? And that's the function of what you just
4:18
Speaker 4: talked about. How many more attacks are were going to
4:21
Speaker 4: see from Israel? What would retaliation look like? So we
4:24
Speaker 4: don't know, but the direction of travel is clear. What's
4:27
Speaker 4: happened to treasury is due to something else. The world
4:32
Speaker 4: is losing confidence in the sovereign side of the US.
4:36
Speaker 4: So if you're looking for safe haven flows, you won't
4:39
Speaker 4: find them in the treasury market. Why because the world
4:42
Speaker 4: starts to overweight the US, so there isn't much appetite
4:45
Speaker 4: to increase you overweight on the bond side. The other
4:49
Speaker 4: thing that's good for the equity market is you here
4:52
Speaker 4: invested distinguishing between the sovereign side and the corporate side.
4:55
Speaker 4: And that's why the equity sell off is not as
4:58
Speaker 4: big as you would have expected otherwise.
5:00
Speaker 1: So those who are looking are looking to either lighten
5:03
Speaker 1: up US or hedge their US weight.
5:07
Speaker 2: They're going to do it on the sovereign debt side
5:10
Speaker 2: as opposed to equities. Is that fair?
5:12
Speaker 4: That's fair? They come do it very quickly because it's
5:16
Speaker 4: not clear where you go to there's nothing to replace
5:19
Speaker 4: the US, but what you're seeing them do is to
5:22
Speaker 4: go little by little to many places. The Financial Times
5:26
Speaker 4: had an article a couple of days ago. Gold now
5:29
Speaker 4: has surpassed the Euro as the second largest component of
5:34
Speaker 4: central banks international reserves, and that's a function of people
5:38
Speaker 4: looking to reduce their US bond exposure.
5:44
Speaker 1: Something that Muhammad said there which got my attention was
5:47
Speaker 1: this little by little in a lot of places, meaning
5:50
Speaker 1: we're going to see a lot more diversification rather than
5:52
Speaker 1: all centering around treasuries. And if you look at gold
5:55
Speaker 1: right now, prices above thirty four to fifty again, and
5:58
Speaker 1: this starts to put more pressure on maybe another all
6:00
Speaker 1: time high for gold as we see a recovery here
6:03
Speaker 1: with gold in general thirty percent year to day.
6:06
Speaker 2: Guys for gold.
6:07
Speaker 1: So I know that many of you guys watch us
6:09
Speaker 1: for crypto and digital assets, but we've had many of
6:11
Speaker 1: the gold guys on before, and this is something that
6:14
Speaker 1: at some point is going to get into a digital framework.
6:18
Speaker 1: We will see digitized and tokenized gold out there and
6:21
Speaker 1: that will affect some of the markets that's around it.
6:24
Speaker 1: So be on the lookout for that. Other things that
6:26
Speaker 1: are happening around other investments. One is the crude oil area,
6:30
Speaker 1: and this is something that we were talking about in
6:31
Speaker 1: the crypto hit the other day, is that the likelihood
6:34
Speaker 1: of oil getting a lot more pressure will happen, and
6:39
Speaker 1: of course right now we're seeing it in the markets.
6:41
Speaker 1: This is still a little bit of a dj in
6:43
Speaker 1: more of a flight to greed. I would agree with
6:45
Speaker 1: our team when we did this research, is that a
6:47
Speaker 1: lot of people are just playing, you know, these abnormal
6:51
Speaker 1: situations from a micro macro side of things, and it
6:55
Speaker 1: is really kind of manifesting right now in the charts.
6:58
Speaker 1: Another thing I want to hit two is why isn't
7:00
Speaker 1: oil up even more? With all these tensions brewing the
7:03
Speaker 1: Middle East? Seems like a powder keg? Why are we
7:06
Speaker 1: not seeing more flow to the oil stocks?
7:08
Speaker 5: Take a look, oil has has up eight percent, is
7:11
Speaker 5: one of the biggest moves in years, single day moves
7:14
Speaker 5: where it's seventy three fifty one here just about eighty
7:16
Speaker 5: dollars brent crude in Europe? Why aren't we at one
7:19
Speaker 5: hundred dollars a barrel? I think the question is not
7:22
Speaker 5: why is oil up?
7:23
Speaker 2: We know that.
7:24
Speaker 5: I think the question that people I'm pinging why isn't
7:27
Speaker 5: oil up even more, and he's got.
7:29
Speaker 2: Fourteen percent last night, and then back.
7:31
Speaker 5: It is, and it's because, hey, there's plenty of oil
7:33
Speaker 5: in the world. So the world, if you just go
7:35
Speaker 5: supply demand, you're well supplied. City Group this morning saying
7:38
Speaker 5: we don't expect new lungs to come into the market necessarily.
7:41
Speaker 5: That said, if Israel were to hit the oil infrastructure
7:47
Speaker 5: assets of Aron, which they did not. They attacked personnel
7:51
Speaker 5: and the nuclear site, if they hit the oil aspects,
7:55
Speaker 5: specifically something called carg Kharg or it's sometimes spelled Cark Island,
8:02
Speaker 5: then you've got probably a twenty dollars super spike in
8:04
Speaker 5: the price of oil.
8:05
Speaker 2: We're on right now at three.
8:07
Speaker 5: Point three million barrels a day. One and a half
8:09
Speaker 5: million of that is exported Kark is where they export
8:11
Speaker 5: not all, but about ninety percent of the oil. So
8:14
Speaker 5: you blow that up. If that were to happen, the
8:16
Speaker 5: price of oil is going to have a super spike.
8:18
Speaker 2: That has not happened, and we haven't seen.
8:22
Speaker 1: And of course, this place two sides of the knife here,
8:25
Speaker 1: and one thing is is that if we do see
8:27
Speaker 1: this play into it, if Israel does make a move
8:30
Speaker 1: like that whether or not we see one hundred and
8:31
Speaker 1: thirty dollars barrel, which is what JP Morgan's calling for, I.
8:34
Speaker 2: Would question that.
8:36
Speaker 1: The other thing is that this hits right into the
8:40
Speaker 1: core of the Trump administration, and that means yes, yeah,
8:44
Speaker 1: there's reasons that this would take place, but they have
8:47
Speaker 1: been camping on the fact that there has been low
8:50
Speaker 1: fuel and energy prices much of their administration and we've
8:53
Speaker 1: continued to see that drop. If this flips around, this
8:56
Speaker 1: could be bad for Trump. So there are some political
9:00
Speaker 1: ploys I'm sure that are being put into play right here.
9:03
Speaker 2: Whether or not Israel goes through with that, we'll see.
9:06
Speaker 1: Now what is happening right now is Trump. He is
9:09
Speaker 1: going in and calling Israel's attack on Iran excellent and
9:13
Speaker 1: says there's more to come, a lot more. So, no
9:15
Speaker 1: love lost I think there between Trump and Iran, they're
9:18
Speaker 1: trying to negotiate. This is a bad look, I think,
9:20
Speaker 1: and it's also the first time that I've seen Trump
9:23
Speaker 1: actually be a little bit more hawkish in terms of
9:26
Speaker 1: any kind of conflict. So I don't know how he's
9:29
Speaker 1: going to play this out and how he'll back away
9:31
Speaker 1: from it. But obviously the guy who has always been
9:33
Speaker 1: hawkish has been Lindsay Graham. This guy is one that
9:36
Speaker 1: I do not trust when it gets into conflict because
9:40
Speaker 1: he has been a military industrial complex guy for quite
9:44
Speaker 1: some time. Watch him very closely. He plays into this
9:47
Speaker 1: in a big way. Now, all of that's the bad stuff,
9:50
Speaker 1: and I get that, Guys, there's bad things happening worldwide,
9:53
Speaker 1: and it seems like there always is. The real question
9:55
Speaker 1: is how does this play out overall? Because the United
9:59
Speaker 1: States has re positioned their entire strategy around crypto. Part
10:03
Speaker 1: of this, of course, you've got to look at a
10:05
Speaker 1: couple of things right now. The categories we're looking at
10:08
Speaker 1: right now is oil that's up. Here's Anthony Popleono talking
10:12
Speaker 1: about this.
10:12
Speaker 2: Gold that's up.
10:13
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is down, but the reaction typically on bitcoin has
10:16
Speaker 1: been lagging behind when gold goes up. We've seen this
10:19
Speaker 1: time in time out, all right, So I want to
10:21
Speaker 1: go back to look at this in historical measures, because
10:25
Speaker 1: if you look at bitcoin in general and it responding
10:29
Speaker 1: to these kind of conflicts, that was Russia invading Ukraine
10:32
Speaker 1: right there, and you can kind of see the breakout
10:34
Speaker 1: of bitcoin and the S and P everybody's down, then
10:37
Speaker 1: it kind.
10:37
Speaker 2: Of restabilizes a little bit.
10:40
Speaker 1: Same thing if you go now back here to the
10:42
Speaker 1: first time that the Israel Iranian conflict started, and this
10:46
Speaker 1: was back here in early April, and of course again
10:49
Speaker 1: down and then everything kind of came back. Not that
10:52
Speaker 1: these individual conflicts caused the markets to move, but it
10:56
Speaker 1: usually causes a bit of panic. And I think that's
10:59
Speaker 1: the question I'm asking each of you guys. Is this
11:01
Speaker 1: enough to make you sell any of your bags? Let
11:04
Speaker 1: me know down below if you think it's going.
11:05
Speaker 2: To be worse.
11:06
Speaker 1: If you look at the market economy right now, recession
11:09
Speaker 1: has been the one that everybody's been concerned about. Still
11:13
Speaker 1: very very far down in its comparison. A twenty seven
11:16
Speaker 1: percent chance is formidable, but it's not anywhere near where
11:19
Speaker 1: it was hovering all the way back here in May
11:21
Speaker 1: when we were over forty percent chance of a potential recession.
11:25
Speaker 1: So this still playing very good for the market. The
11:28
Speaker 1: other thing that looks at very good in the way
11:30
Speaker 1: of blockchain, and that is the SEC withdrawing multiple regulatory proposals,
11:34
Speaker 1: including their expanded customy rule. This will change everything for
11:39
Speaker 1: all coins. I know, a lot of the markets, especially
11:42
Speaker 1: around DeFi. We'll see I think a lot of good
11:45
Speaker 1: things happening in a very short period of time. Don't
11:47
Speaker 1: forget Genius Act just around the corner. Another thing that's
11:50
Speaker 1: just around the corner is Coinbase is now opening up
11:54
Speaker 1: a lot more access. So now you guys are going
11:56
Speaker 1: to be able to get into DEXes in the Coinbase app.
12:00
Speaker 2: You're going to be able to buy virtuals on there.
12:01
Speaker 1: This is something we've talked about and now you can
12:04
Speaker 1: actually do it, so be able to look out for that.
12:06
Speaker 1: That's most likely going to cause a lot of flow
12:08
Speaker 1: into the market, especially globally. But I love this. Here's
12:12
Speaker 1: Jesse Pollock right here. Yes, that's virtuals on Coinbase. It's
12:15
Speaker 1: kind of funny because it's been kind of an inside
12:18
Speaker 1: joke and virtuals on Coinbase now it is. Other things
12:21
Speaker 1: I want to hit on right now is they are
12:23
Speaker 1: launching their Coinbase one card. This is a pretty aggressive
12:26
Speaker 1: deal with American Express, which is another big win because
12:30
Speaker 1: we haven't seen American Express jump into this before. It's
12:33
Speaker 1: always been Visa MasterCard. American Express now in on it
12:37
Speaker 1: with earning up to four percent back on bitcoin on
12:40
Speaker 1: every purchase.
12:41
Speaker 2: Keyword there is every purchase. That's a key thing.
12:44
Speaker 1: Because it changes the game, I think, and we'll put
12:46
Speaker 1: some pressure on a lot of these other card programs
12:50
Speaker 1: to get in that a little bit further, other things
12:52
Speaker 1: you got to look at is panic selling and the
12:56
Speaker 1: opposite of that, and that is people going in a
12:59
Speaker 1: little bit deeper on AUM. If you are thinking the
13:01
Speaker 1: eighth bitcoin trade right now, ETH is setting up to
13:04
Speaker 1: get a little bit better performance. This is the time
13:08
Speaker 1: is it for you to jump into ETH? As we've
13:10
Speaker 1: seen a twenty four hundred come back And this was
13:12
Speaker 1: a thing I asked Tim Warren the other day, was
13:14
Speaker 1: there anything that could happen to get us back to
13:17
Speaker 1: twenty four hundred. Well, we know what happened to get
13:19
Speaker 1: us back to twenty four hundred. Sharplink also is a
13:22
Speaker 1: big one to watch. This is one we are getting
13:24
Speaker 1: ready to put out a big video on may come
13:26
Speaker 1: before this one. But key here is Sharplink Gaming a
13:30
Speaker 1: company that is positioning to have a similar track to
13:34
Speaker 1: that of micro Strategy if you just think about that.
13:37
Speaker 1: For Ethereum, that's the key word here. They bought four
13:40
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty three million in ETH and becomes the
13:42
Speaker 1: largest public holder of Ethereum. That's a big deal because
13:46
Speaker 1: that's a public and trade company. Could we see more
13:48
Speaker 1: people cycling into this eth ETFs also going up. So
13:55
Speaker 1: no matter what, ethereum seems to be unphased to a certain.
14:01
Speaker 2: Gold is up.
14:03
Speaker 1: Some of the S and P on the move right now.
14:06
Speaker 1: I think it's a wait and see situation with much
14:09
Speaker 1: of the big capital, but some of those that are
14:12
Speaker 1: in the market right now that are a little bit
14:14
Speaker 1: more risky are getting in and doing.
14:16
Speaker 2: It all right.
14:16
Speaker 1: A couple other things here is genius act. This is
14:19
Speaker 1: happening as early as next week. Seventeenth is kind of
14:21
Speaker 1: the target eight. If that happens, I think again we
14:24
Speaker 1: will see another little bit of a market surge. And
14:26
Speaker 1: then a couple more points I was hitting on and
14:28
Speaker 1: that is just right here. Circle of course continues to
14:31
Speaker 1: go up the chart. And if this is a cycle
14:34
Speaker 1: of companies in the IPO phase saying maybe we need
14:39
Speaker 1: to look at digital assets as part of our strategy,
14:42
Speaker 1: could we see those kind of things play out circle,
14:45
Speaker 1: And of course that means companies like as Bet and
14:47
Speaker 1: others all could be.
14:49
Speaker 2: Leveraging in on this.
14:50
Speaker 1: But one thing that I think a lot of people
14:52
Speaker 1: aren't considering, and that is traditional companies, whether they're S
14:56
Speaker 1: and P five hundred or market sector leaders that start
15:00
Speaker 1: to put digital assets on their balance sheet and in
15:03
Speaker 1: their treasuries. When that starts to occur, along with maybe
15:07
Speaker 1: aligning projects that they're doing onto the blockchain, that's when
15:11
Speaker 1: I think you've got mainstream and that's when people will
15:13
Speaker 1: start to really see the differences. Last point here, I
15:18
Speaker 1: just want to show Circles.
15:19
Speaker 2: This is the growth that was.
15:20
Speaker 1: Left on the table when the investment bankers brought Circle out.
15:24
Speaker 1: That's almost one hundred percent gain in a very short
15:27
Speaker 1: period of time. That's on the four hour chart there,
15:29
Speaker 1: guys right now now. Granted, Circle underperforming in terms of
15:35
Speaker 1: overall value and I think also on profitability. But the
15:37
Speaker 1: point I think is when you look at Circle, this
15:40
Speaker 1: could be one that could come.
15:42
Speaker 2: Out very well.
15:43
Speaker 1: Because of the IPO still yet to say so it's
15:46
Speaker 1: still somewhat of a risky trade. I don't know if
15:49
Speaker 1: I would make a trade on Circle today, but let
15:52
Speaker 1: me know what you guys think. Now, if you're not
15:53
Speaker 1: in the Diamond circle, it's a great place to get
15:55
Speaker 1: additional content. That's our own private group. We always leave
15:58
Speaker 1: a link down below. You guys can check that I'm
16:00
Speaker 1: absolutely free, and join the Telegram group link as well.
16:03
Speaker 1: Follow me on x at Paul Baron. We'll catch you
16:05
Speaker 1: next time, right here on tech Path