Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

Transcript

Kentucky Derby Betting Guide · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast part of the Action
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Network and proudly presented by BET three sixty five. I
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: am Chadmiman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Reminder,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: we are live on YouTube. We are live on AMP.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: The chat is open. Send us your questions. We got
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: a huge show today, and by we I do mean
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: me and my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre,
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon hunter Loo.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: So I'm in Hello hat Chad.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: Looking forward to talking Kentucky Derby. My man.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: We're gonna get to the Derby. We're gonna get to
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit of news that we created on the
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: show on Tuesday, some draft news that came off the show.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Before we get to that, I want to ask you
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: a question. What is the biggest parlay ticket, small amount
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: of money, big payout you've ever cashed.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: I definitely had a couple of those. Like I was
• 1:17
  Speaker 4: in Vegas. I want a bunch of money. I blacked
• 1:19
  Speaker 4: out like partying with a bunch of buddies like most
• 1:22
  Speaker 4: people do, like in my early twenties, and then would
• 1:24
  Speaker 4: do it like a ten to fifteen dollars parlay of
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: all baseball games, A bunch of NBA games. I have
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: one where it was like I bet twenty nine won
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: like four thousand, which at the time was like I
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: was living on a Ramen noodles, Like I needed that
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: for Grant.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: So I'm so glad you said that was the ticket.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Because Charlie Desterco, who's one of our fantastic producers at
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Action Network, who also hosts the Gambling and Ramblin Show,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: which you can see on YouTube with Tim Kaalanowski. Charlie
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: also was a great better bets a lot of baseball.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of college basketball. He did some great
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: college basketball stuff for us during March Madness. Yesterday he
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: did a three player home run parlay with Hobby Bias,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Tommy Fan. Eric has fifteen dollars. Third inning, three d
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: home runs by those players.
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: Flyball deep right field, Mark Turning looking.
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: Out of here, three run Bob his first of the
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: year for Eric Oss and the curve ball whacked down
• 2:34
  Speaker 5: the left field line, right toward the corner, and it's
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: out of here. Tommy Fan with a line drive home
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: run just inside the left field foul pole that snaps
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: that over seventeen his third home run of the air
• 2:47
  Speaker 5: and the nets. Get one back immediately, Baias with a bolt.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Back left field.
• 2:54
  Speaker 5: Forget about it, that's his first.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Of the year. Got it back Wow, fifteen dollars. Three
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: home runs by those players paid thirty four hundred dollars.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Go follow Charlie in the Action Network app Charlie Desterco.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Also listen to Charlie every week on Payoff Pitch, the
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: MLB podcast from Action Network. The guys walking around with
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: just a glow today. I can't even believe he bothered
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: to come in. I asked him what he was going
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: to do with the money. He's like, I'm taking it
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: out of account and putting in my bank. Did the
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: right thing. I was smart.
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: You gotta pay taxes on that, Charlie.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: See now I just screwed him, didn't I?
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Hey, guess what reminder reminder to everybody? The Favorite podcast
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: is proudly presented by BET three six five, the world's
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: favorite sportsbook brand. Sign Up with promo code Action to
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: get BET three six five's exclusive sign up offer. Bet
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: one dollar on any game and get two hundred dollars
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: in bonus. Bets must be twenty one or older. Offer
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio and Virginia gambling
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: prop call or text one eight hundred gambler. Also, you
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: guys have heard us talk about game Time so often
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: on the podcast. They're the fastest growing ticketing app in
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: the United States. I love game Time. I use it
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: all the time. You guys know I use it. I've
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: mentioned specific examples of when I've used it. If you're
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: looking to get out to a pro college game this week,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: or even a concert, game Time has amazing last minute
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: deals on tickets to all of these. I'm opening game
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: Time right now from our studio here in New York.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: I am blocks from MSG. I am a tab ride
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: away from getting a jersey tomorrow night. I can get
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: into City for eight bucks. Do the Devils on Sunday
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: two hundred bucks, UFC Crudential Center two seventy. I mean,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: there's like legit good tickets for not crazy numbers in
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: game Time right now. No matter where you live, download
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: the game Time app. Get out have some fun this week.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: You deserve it. You can redeem code favorites for twenty
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: dollars off your first purchase. Terms applied again. Just download
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: the app and enter code favorites for twenty dollars off
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: download game time today, last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: All right, so listen, We're gonna talk Kentucky Derby today
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: with Mike Samich, who has been an Action Network contributor.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: You can also find his work at racingdudes dot com.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Fun fact, his family is from Saint Louis and Chicago
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: as his mind. But before we do that, Simon, on Tuesday,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: we were talking about the draft you talked about, we
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: talked about the Atlanta Falcons and you casually mentioned, and
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: I probably should have followed up more deeply, that the
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Falcons pursued and nearly acquired Kyler Murray and then Ryan
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Tannehal in separtrate attempts, but the deals fell through. This
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: is of course blown up on social media after Connor Powers,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: another one of our eight teammates on our social team,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: also the huge Falcons fan. I'm not going to say
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: a huge Falcons fan, because he kind of is the fan.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: He posted it. Give us more details on this. As
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: comfortable as you are with talking about the sourcing, I
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: do feel we owe it to listeners to dig a
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: little bit deeper before we get to Mike and talking
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: about the Derby. What we can reveal about this rumor
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: to bring in some credibility.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say, first off, don't be so attached
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: to your players.
• 6:39
  Speaker 4: This is a business. Everything's business mindset. So people that
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: think the Cardinals are a little to Kyler Murray. You
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: have a new GM and a new head coach, neither
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: of which brought in Kyler Murray or gave him all
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: that money. So right there, that's your basis point. I
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: would say most people, especially in the industry, know that
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: that's a short life right there. Kyler has done nothing
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: to prove they deserves their long term plan. I mean,
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: the guy had well one playoff start and he got
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: blown out.
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: It's it's one of those where I get why.
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: Arizona fans got a little upset, but it doesn't make
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: sense why Falcons fans got upset. I don't know why
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: they're all in on this Conritter. You don't have a
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: starting quarterback on your roster right now, Falcons. So to me,
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: if people are like, how how'd you get this info?
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: Same way I got the b John Robinson, there's leaks
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: within the Falcons organization. So to me, I would say
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: the most shocking part would be that people are so
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: shocked by it where I think Vegas has kind of
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: built this into the line. We've seen a lot of
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: books now move Arizona's win total to four and a half.
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: That's really low, Chad, you know how low that is.
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: I think last year the two teams the Texans at
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: four and a half exactly. So that's that's where the
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: books are putting you with the Texans. So to me, Kyler,
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: the only thing that's stopping it. We talked about was
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: the money. Now I get the dead cap money thing.
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: That's a worrisome to a lot of people. The team
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: that number one cap all football last year, I think
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: it was over forty million was the Falcons for Matt
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: Ryan last year, so you know, yes, that's a huge number.
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: You go for the year before that, it was thirty
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: five million to the Eagles with Carson Wentz. Again, that's
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: a big number. It doesn't really matter to these teams.
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: The dead cat numbers don't really matter. It's yeah, it
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: sucks for a year, maybe two years, but that's it.
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: Then you have your franchise quarterbacker moving on. It doesn't
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: really matter.
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: So to me, my old point of that was just
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: to put a little bit.
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: Of money on the Falcons. I think people don't understand
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: the Falcons, their ownership, their GM. A lot of them
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: were thinking, we're in win now mode. We have a
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: weak division, we have a really good offensive weapons. We
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: think we could win this division. Why wouldn't they try.
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: To do that. This is a team that's been to
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: the playoffs what twice in ten years?
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: They made it to a Super Bowl when they won
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: eleven to five, then the following year they got knocked
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: down in the first round.
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: By the Eagles and the wild card.
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: So I think the fans are hungry, and just like
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: their front office and the ownership's hungry. I mean, Arthur
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: blank is watch in his eighties. It's an old man.
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: So I get the Falcons want to believe in that
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: they have a starting quarterback on their roster.
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: You don't, you have no one proving I mean Heinike
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: is the backup.
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: Yes, I'm sure you could come in and win a
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: couple of games. That's nothing compared to what Kyler could
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: do for that team, or even Tannel. Look for that matter,
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: I know Tannel is old. He'll be thirty five this
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: upcoming season. I still think you have Arthur Smith as
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: your head coach, who gave him them their best season
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: ever with Tannehill, right, Tannehill played out of this world
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: with him when he played in Tennessee. That just made
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: sense as a fit. Now, the whole wrinkle on this
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: whole talk of this trade, this is all about c J.
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: Stroud. I think people don't understand this was all about
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: the c J. Stroud.
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: So as soon as he went to two to Houston,
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: that kind of threw a wrinkle into all these different
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: trades that were on the table. So I get what
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: people lost their minds about. I mean, it's a slow
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: news day, Chad, and people love talking football, but I
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: was honestly shocked about how people just can't see it happening.
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: To me, if it's middle of August and this trade
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: does go through, I don't think people have the fans
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: of the show or I will be shocked, just because
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: this has now been in works for multiple months.
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: So time will tell Chaen.
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: If we're sitting here next year and Kyler Murray is
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: on the Falcons, I'm still going to take a victory
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: lap just because that was the first one to really
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: break it.
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: So time will tell. I get it. People are skeptical.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: I don't say things just to say things.
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: There is no benefit to saying that, so to me,
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: time will tell with this one, and I do believe,
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: maybe not this year, but I do believe Kyler Murray
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: will be off Arizona Bend before the beginning of next season.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Here's what's interesting about the world we're in. I promise
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Mike's holding on and I appreciate it, but this is
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: an important topic. And this has come up a couple
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: times on this show because both of us get access
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: to information by virtue of being public facing and having
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: people who are in the sports world be interested in
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: what we're doing. And that's a lot of times how
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: it goes right, Like people listen to the podcast, people
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: see someone on television, someone else who was a fan
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: who likes what they're doing, who works in sports, whether
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: it's for a team or a league executive, They reach
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: out there like Hey. People like to feel important and
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: act like they're in the know, or when they're in
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: the know, like to share information to feel good about
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: what they're doing. Leaks are everywhere, and as sports betting
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: becomes more a part of the conversation, there's going to
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: be more and more leaks to people like us who
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: are public facing for this kind of content, and you
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: know it. It was a conversation, a huge conversation a
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: few years ago for the Trey Lance and Mac Jones
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: draft and what schefter was putting out there and how
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: people could be potentially using that information to their benefit.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: And I got to tell you, it's no difference than
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: to anybody who's tweeting out or sharing information about injury
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: reports or anything else. That information is active and people
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: use that information. And the fact that there is a
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: sports betting universe now that is covering this from a
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: position of opportunity doesn't change the fact that that's always
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: been the case.
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's I'm learning too, like as I get
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: a media and not to step on toes like I
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: baden mouth someone on Tuesday I shouldn't have and I
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: got reached out to about it from that NFL team
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: that was just like, I kind of forget it. I
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: always think, Chad, it's just me and you talking here.
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: We're without millions of people listening to the show. So
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: that's something I am adjusting to and learning. But I
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: will say this there, there's I'm always me butting heads
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: against people. I mean, that's just the way it is
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: in this business. And I said it for weeks that
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: I didn't believe Houston was taking a d N it's
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: number two pick. I kept saying, I thought Houston was
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: going to take a quarterback. I got beat up for
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: weeks about it because everyone's mocking against that. So that's
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: just my line of work.
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: Chat.
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: It's just like, if you're going to be the person
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: saying things that people haven't heard, they're always gonna go
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: with the sheep the herd, right, They're always gonna go
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: with the herd mentality of what everyone else is saying this.
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: So to me, that's the hardest part of my job
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: is I literally will come on here and I'll shoot
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: on your team for six months, and then me and
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: Chad are gonna bet on your team for six months.
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: Like that's kind of part of the deal.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: That's where the money is. My favorite Peloton instructor, Emma
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: love Well says, you've got to be comfortable with being uncomfortable.
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: It's truth.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: You know. What she says that I like progress not
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: perfection is that it love it. Attitude is altitude. I
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: said that to my wife the other day. I swear
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: to God, I thought she was going to punch me
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: in the face. I'm with it, man Mitchell. He's like,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: how is this man married? It's a rough it's a rough.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Go for her. The one and forty ninth renewal of
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby, the one hundred and forty ninth run
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: for the Road is It's happening this Saturday. My favorite
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: term in betting whisper Wednesday was yesterday. It's when everybody
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: around the backstretch at the Derby and in the paddocks,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: and all the trainers and all the betters start whispering
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: about the horses who have been training well in the
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: lead up and in the last couple of days, some
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: odds might start to shift. Mike Samich, he's contributing to
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: action you can find at Racing Dudes dot com. Mike,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: how are any buddy doing well?
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: Doing well? Here?
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: We got through Whisper Wednesday, and just like every other
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: rendition of this race, every single horse is training the
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: best they ever have. You gotta love it, all, right.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: So explain to people a little bit more. Whisper Wednesday
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: is a phrase that I love. It's a little bit
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: of a Derby tradition. Explain to people what it is
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: and explain what we heard coming out of Whisper Wednesday,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: take people inside, make them feel like they're getting something here.
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so Wednesday before the Derby is generally the last
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: day you're going to see workouts from your derby participants.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: And that's exactly what happened yesterday. Eighteen of the twenty
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: starters currently in the starting gate worked over the Churchill
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Downs track. And so when you have that large of
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: a percentage of the horses working, you're going to start
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: hearing things about who worked really well who didn't, because
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: this is one of the few days they all work
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: together at the same time. And when you talk about
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: workouts and horse racing, it's essentially the horses running anywhere
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: from four to six furlongs over the racetrack just to
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: kind of get their legs under them, to see how
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: much they liked the racetrack, how much they like the dirt,
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: because each surface is going to be a little bit
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: different depending on where you are. And so this year,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: the horse that I heard the most buzz about was
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: a horse called Confidence Game, the four horse who has
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: kind of turned into the wise guy horse here over
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: the last two weeks or so, originally was on the
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: board in a fixed odd's market at twenty five to
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: thirty to one, was as low as twelve to one
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: at one point early over the weekend. So Confidence Game
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: got quite a bit of buzz. And then the other
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: horse that got a lot of buzz, actually a Philly
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: in the Kentucky Oaks South Lawn apparently out galloped Forte,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: which is your favorite in the Kentucky Derby. And so
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: everyone's talking about South Lawn right now. Who's eight to
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: one on the morning line for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday?
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Confidence Game now down to twenty to one Forte currently
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: of three to one. Angel of Empire eight to one.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: For people who don't know, me and Matt Mitchell and
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Simon were at the Breeders in Lexington in November. We
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: had a freaking blast. I don't think we won any races.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: Of all the races we bet, I think there were
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: at the Breeders that day seven or eight races. I
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: don't think we won a single race. Is that accurate?
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell? That is correct. I mean we had a
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: great time.
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: A beautiful and expensive day, totally fuck.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: It was gorgeous out. It was so fun to be
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: at the track. Simon and I at one point we
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: were like smack dab in the center. We got to
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: see a lot of people who listen to the favorites.
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: It was super fun to do it. It's hard not
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: to fall in love with horse racing when you are
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: up close. Mike, before I get into some of the details,
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: and before Simon and I start, you know, grilling, you
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: just explain a little bit of how you got into
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: it so people get a sense of, like, you know,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: your credibility, so they don't come after you on Twitter
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: the way they come after Simon.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: I'm sure they will. Anyway, I would have born into it, right,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, I went to the racetrack for the first
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: time when I was three months old. So my dad
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: grew up in upstate New York, right by about an
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: hour outside of Saratoga Racetrack, and so he and his
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: dad bonded over going to the races. And so when
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: I was I was born in June that August, my
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: dad had me at the racetrack at Saratoga, and as
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: I grew up, it kind of just got instilled in me.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: So I started as he gave me ten bucks when
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: I was four years old, said you can bet one
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: horse to show in each race for a dollar, and
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: that was my first betting experience. Kind of just kind
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: of consistently happened throughout high school where he grew me
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: up by playing games. That's what was what our relationship was,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: and that kind of turned into horse racing. And so
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: here we are thirty five years later. It's still betting
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: the ponies and fortunate enough to have some pretty good
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: success on it. Finished pretty highly in a couple of tournaments,
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: the final table at the NHC last year. I finished
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: third in the Keelan Grade one Gamble this year. And
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: it's give me the opportunity to really cut my teeth
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: in this business and talk about horses.
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, I have so many questions, first of being,
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: how cool is your dad? I mean, that is a
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: cool dad right there, Chad, I'll tell you that much.
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, as someone who's been to the racetracks a lot,
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: I can't imagine taking a four year old there and
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: then giving them ten bucks and making bets with me.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: But times are different back then.
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: Nowadays, I've spent way too much time not at the
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: horse track of the dog track. I was one of
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: those people went to the dog track a lot, so
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: I support it though I love it. It's like the
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: perfect handbook. How to become a sports better is starting
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: the ponies. It's one of those either most people you
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: start on the horses or you start playing poker. I
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: feel like that's most people's steps into you know, sports
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: betting in general.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: How is Mike How is betting the Derby different than
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: betting other races?
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: Well, first off, betting the Derby is just an interesting
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: scenario because you have twenty horses in this field. There's
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: not a single race in North America that you're gonna
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: have twenty horses in the field again all this year.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: So that immediately introduces variants, right, because each of these
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: horses is going to have to get a trip essentially
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: the best possible route from start to end. And with
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: twenty horses nineteen others in your way, you're going to
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: get more bumping than a normal race. The break matters
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: more than a normal race because if you don't break
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: out of the gate, well, you're going to get in trouble.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: And then the Kentucky Derby is a mile and a
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: quarter we haven't had any of these horses go a
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: mile and a quarter yet in their career, so this
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: is the first time you're going to see these horses
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: going this long of a distance. It's the first time
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: they're going to be in fields with twenty horses. It
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: just sets up a lot of different variables, which you
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: would think, I mean, like I said, offers variants. But
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: the ironic part is we've had favorites fare very well
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: since twenty thirteen, which is the installation of the points era,
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: meaning that you can only qualify through specific preps for
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: the Kentucky Derby versus any type of Great one stakes.
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: It's kept sprinters out of the race and allowed horses
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: to be for the place to have much more success.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: So eight of your last ten Derby winners have been
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: on or near the lead going into that backstretch.
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: Now, if you're like me and you're.
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: A casual better like, how do you bet if you're
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: only bet in one to two three races a year,
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: and how would you bet the Derby?
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: Would that well? For me?
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: It's all about your risk verse reward, right, If you're
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: looking for a lottery ticket, the Kentucky Derby is the
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: best race of the year To play the Kentucky Derby
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: Superfecta is a one dollar bet.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: What was the winner last year? Tell the people who.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: Won last year? Rich Rich Strike won the race last year?
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: What was he? Ninety nine to one, eighty.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Six to one? And the superfecta paid almost a million
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: dollars for a buck, So you can in the favorite
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: ran second and the fourth choice ran third, so you
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: just had to have that top horse and then all
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: of a sudden you fill it out and you can
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: make a whole lot of money. Fifteen and last seventeen years,
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: the Derby super effect has paid at least nine five
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars. Six of those seventeen years it's paid over
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: one hundred thousand dollars. So it is a great lottery
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: ticket to have because you have twenty horses, and because
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: the base denomination is a dollar, meaning every single combination
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: that you play it costs one dollar to play that combination,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: you're not allowed to spread as much as if it's
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: a ten cent denomination, which is the general denomination in
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: superfective betting and horse racing. So it forces you to
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: shrink down the horses you use and creates massive payouts.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: So there's a great lottery ticket version of this if
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: you want to go for the parlay esque play.
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: At the same time, it's one of the best win
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: betting events as well. So if you want a less
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: risky scenario and you want to say, okay, I want
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: to bet a couple horses to win, it's a great
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: opportunity to do that. Because you have a twenty horse field,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: your favorite is going to be between three to one
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: and seven to two. Your favorite's not going to be
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: four to five, where you're winning eighty cents on a dollar,
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: So you're getting a better return from a favorite perspective.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: And this year's going to be really interesting just from
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: a case study perspective as well, because rich Strike won
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: last year at such a big price. I would be
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: surprised if you have anyone who's between who's over sixty
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: to one this year on the board, right, And if
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: that that's the case, that means there is going to
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: be value on your favorite and on those horses that
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: are somewhere in that let's say five to fifteen to
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: one range, because they're going to be ignored if all
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: the money is pouring in on these long shots. So
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: you almost are playing no big if you're looking for
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: a middle type price to win and you think these
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: long shots are going to be over bet because of
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: the rich strike factor.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, I wish you guys could see this. Matt
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Mitchell taking his then fourteen month old son Monty to
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: the Arlington International Race Course in Chicago, outside Chicago where
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: the Bears are going to be building a new stadium
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, fourteen months old, making a bet at Arlington.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: Way to go, Matt Mitchell. You're bringing up Action Network
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: users ven your very own home. Mike. You're talking about favorites.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: You're talking about the advantages of betting the Derby versus
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: other races. So we've got to dig in. Who are
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: the favorites, who are the contenders?
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: Well, look at the top three here. His favorite in
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: the Kentucky Derby is going to be Forte, sitting in
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: the fifteen post at three to one right now on
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: the morning line. Forte was your two year old champion.
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: Won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year beat Cave Rockett.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: Keenland has come back and won twice at Gulfstream Park
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: so far this year and really done nothing wrong in
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: either of those races. A lot of people are knocking him,
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: specifically because of his Florida Derby effort. And there's something
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: in horse racing called the buyer speed figure, which is
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: generally the most looked upon speed figure in racing. And
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: he's regressed from his Keenland number, So he got one
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: hundred at Keenland. He ran a ninety eight in his
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: first race back regressed to a ninety five in the
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: Florida Derby. But if you look at that Derby, he
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: was in the four or five path on the first turn.
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: In this is the Florida Derby, he was in the
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: four or five path on the first turn, four or
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: five path on the second turn, got blocked until the
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: final sixteenth of the mile of the race, and then
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: had to explode there and get to the wire first.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: The number came back light because of how wide he
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: had to run the entire race and how little time
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: he had to accelerate down the lane. So a lot
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: of people are knocking him for a race that I
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: don't think was bad at all. So he's your favorite
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: right now three to one on the board. If he
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: floats up to seven to two or four to one,
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: I may be placing the wind bet on him, because
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: I do think four to one offers some value there.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: Your second choice is Tapa Trice, who's the five horse,
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: also trained by Todd Pletcher, and this is an interesting
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: case study because Tapa Trice has never broken well. He
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: likes to essentially start two or three lengths behind the
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: entire field, and when you're in the five post in
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: the Derby and you don't break, you've got a world
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: of problems because the outside horse has come over to
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: the rail like a wave. Everyone's trying to get position,
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: and if Tapa Trice doesn't get some type of early position,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: he's going to end up in seventeenth, eighteenth, nineteenth, twentieth
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: under the wire for the first time and essentially out
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: of the race if that happens. And so there's a
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: ton of value in my mind in fading him at
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: five to one because of his breaking issues. Your third
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: favorite is Angel Vampire fourteen post eight to one. He's
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: an interesting case here because he has won his last
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: two races, one at Louisiana Downs when the pace absolutely collapsed,
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: and then one of the Arkansas Derby when everyone got
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: a really good trip. An Angel Vampire has improved every
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: start here as a three year old looked phenomenal. At Arkansas.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: The biggest knock an Angel of Empire going to be
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: coming from mid to back of the field, and that's
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: not generally a win style in the Kentucky Derby, especially
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: when there's not a ton of pace, and this year's
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: pace of the race and who's going to be upfront,
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: how fast they're going to go is one of the
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: murkiest we've seen in the last five or six years.
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: Ray, So what are you expecting in terms of pace.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: Well, the torses that have speed drew the inside, which
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: should kind of force their hand. You should see the
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: two Verifying go early. You're going to see the four
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: Confidence Game go early. The six Kings, Barnes, the seven
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: Reincarnate all want to be upfront, but none of them
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: really want the lead. And that's where it's tough because
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: in the past years we've had horses who, hey, I've
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: got to be in the lead if I'm going to
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: run my best race. They then are forced to go
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: twenty two and change in the opening quarter, forty six
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: and change for opening half. We don't have any of them,
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: so it feels like a pace scenario where you're going
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: to see Verifying go from the two posts. I think
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: you're going to see Dermosotagatte go from the seventeen post
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: because he's so far outside. But I don't think Dermosote
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: Degatte wants the lead, so he's going to try and
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: get to verifying his hip and then slow down. If
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: that happens, everyone's going to slow down behind him, and
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: all of a sudden, you're going to see a quick
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: opening quarter, but a slow opening half because you want everyone.
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: Everyone's going to try and back up there because they
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: don't want the lead. They just want to be four
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: replaced and get positioned. So it's going to be very
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: interesting to see how that plays out. But I would
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: expect we're going to see somewhere around a forty seven
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: second opening half, which is rather slow for the Kentucky Derby.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: It's amazing to think about those kinds of numbers as slow,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: you know, and I love I also love listening to
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: guys who really know horse racing because the language is
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: so specific and look if you if if if you're
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: in the betting space, Simon like you and I are,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: like Matt Mitchell is like everyone who works at action
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: is you listen to talk like the listen to people
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: like Mike talk about the speed rating or pace or
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: various other terms, and it just sounds like candy. I
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: just I fucking love it. I don't know anything about
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: it and I love it. Hooked it does it totally
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: does like it. Just there's a different tone, a different
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: rhythm to the language that is just a joy to
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: listen to. It's a little bit like poetry. Who are
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: the losers? Who are you tossing out of your card?
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: Well, for me, Tapa Trice is the biggest chuck. He
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: five to one. If I can get him out of
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: the Superfecta, that's huge because you're chucking out the second
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: favorite right out of the gate, who's a Todd Pletcher
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: trained horse. So I'm gonna avoid using Tapa Trice practical move.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: The ten horse is coming out of sant Anito won
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: the Sandy to Derby last out. Has gotten a perfect
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: trip in his two races as a three year old,
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: never had to leave the rail in either of them.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: The rail opened up for him in the Sannit de Derby,
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: so he was able to get the mile and a quarter.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: But two horses Skinner and Mandarin Hero were both bearing
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: down on him later in that race, and his sire,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: so his dad is a horse named Practical Joke. The
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: joke in the horse racing world. His friends don't let
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: friends bet practical Joke. Horses go in two turns. Well,
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: now this horse has to go a mile and a
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: quarter after barely getting a mile in an eighth at
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: Santa Anita. There's been a lot of buzz around them.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: Ten to one on the morning line currently your fourth choice.
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: That's another horse. I think you can exclude from your
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: tickets to try and try and build the value by
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: checking out a couple of the favorites.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: Good tenders. Who are you betting for the contenders?
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: So I respect Forte quite a bit, and I think
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: there's the hate for Forte has gone too far at
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: this point, and that's why I managed the owner. If
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: he does float up, I think you gotta play a
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: little bit of Forte. I'm gonna go with a little
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: bit of a long shot on top, though, give me
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: the number eight horse Maje at fifteen to one on top.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: This is a bit of a stretch, But in this
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: type of race, I want to take a shot and
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: to me, Mage has not broken well in the last
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: two races and got absolutely atrocious trips. So if you
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: go back and you watch the Florida Derby, which fourt
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: A one Maje breaks last of a field of eleven,
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: goes four wide into the first turn, makes a massive
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: middle move down the back stretch, takes the lead after
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: going five wide to the second turn, and Forte runs
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: him down in the final sixteenth of a mile. So
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: with all of that that went wrong, Forte was a
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: length better than Maige, and yet Mage is fifteen to
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: one and fourt A is three to one. Now, Mage
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: hasn't broken well the last two races. That's a problem.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: I realize that we need to get around it. But
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: in his first start he went twenty two and two
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: forty four and two for the opening quarter and a
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: half mile. He's got early speed. He just needs to
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: show that on Saturday. And if he does, and if
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: he's sitting in that first five or six, I think
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: he is a massive shot at winning the Derby at
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: a pretty big price of fifteen to one.
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: Why do you say you blame the owner, Simon? Is
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: there like an inside joke there? Forte is owned by
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Mike Rippoli. Is there something going on that we don't know?
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: I saw an innyview with him. It just seems like
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: he's a complete nut job chat. So I'm hoping he does.
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I saw like he's like he seemed like a
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: real character, which to me, he.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: Just Rappoli's like, Oh, you don't know the story of Ripoli.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: He's like one of those classic self made bed at
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: all on himself billionaires.
• 30:31
  Speaker 3: I love it.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: I love this guy. Ripoli is one of my favorites.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: Very well known sport too. I won the Belmont with
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: a Philly last year. Has had a couple of phenomenal horses,
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: done very well at Saratoga, so he's well known inside
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: horse racing.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, he's been around for a while. This is probably
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: is like his best shot to win a Derby, right.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: Oh, I can't think of a better one. I mean,
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: he's got the favorite and that's always a good thing.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Oh, Simon, we should get Rippoli on
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: the podcast.
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: He'd be a fun guest.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: He'd be amazing on this podcast. He'd be so much fun.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: Let's work on that, Matt Mitchell, get it done. All right.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: We've talked a little bit about Meije. We've talked about forte.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: We talked about the losers measured at about fifteen to
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: one long ish odds. What about longer it's long shots.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: Well, if you want to get a little crazy, I
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: don't think these horses can win the race, but I
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: do think you want to use them underneath if you're
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: playing trifectors or super effectors, meaning put them in the second, third,
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: and four spots in those bets to try and really
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: balloon the payouts. We'll start with the one horse hit
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: Show thirty to one on the morning line. Hit Show's
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: Coming Out of the Wood Memorial, which is the last
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: qualifying race up in New York up at Aqueduct, And
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: in that race there were thirteen horses. Hit Show drew
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: the number thirteen, so broke all the way to the
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: outsided one horse scratch. So broke out of the twelve
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: post of twelve horses, was five wide into the first
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: had a horse literally bump his hind end so you
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: can see him spin out a little bit. Then in
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: the second turn is forced four wide and down the lane.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: It's basically carnival bumper cars with him in the middle
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: of two horses just banging off him the whole time,
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: still run second, still improves and has tactical speed.
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: In this race.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: The one post is awful. It is the worst possible
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: place that you could draw on the entire field, but
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: it can hit the board still, and so at thirty
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: to one, I think hit Show is a decent shot
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: of hitting the board. The other big time price that
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: I'm interested in is the seven horse at fifty to one.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: Reincarnate I think has a shot to hang on for
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: third or fourth. Here in this spot we talked about
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: the lack of pace. Reincarnate wants every bit of this
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: mile and a quarter distance. So that's a horse that's
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: going to be forwardly placed, that has the ability to
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: hold on and has the stamina to sit into that.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: Let's say again third or four spot at a monster
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: number to really balloon those tries or soupers.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Now this is a massive field.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: It's huge.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at all these horses. What did you say?
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: It was eighteen eighteen horses in the field.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: There's twenty in the field and there's three also eligible,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: so if any of them scratch, you're going to see
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: someone fill in for them. So there will be twenty
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: breaking out of the gate this year.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: When is the last time there were twenty coming out
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: of the gate of the Kentucky.
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: Derby last year. It's been consistent here where we've had
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: twenty year over year. Two years ago they actually switched
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: the gate so you have a single gate with all
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: twenty horses. Prior to that you had two separate gates,
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: one one through fourteen and the other fifteen through twenty.
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: So they tried to You saw fourteen and fifteen get
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: awful trips because they would just turn into each other
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: and bang into each other right out of the gate.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: So they switched it up and have this one gate
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: of twenty wide now to try and make it a
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: little more fair for those two horses.
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: You talked about the floor to Derby, and that's sort
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: of known as you know, a race in which you
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: can start to track Derby contenders. But there's really nothing
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: like the Kentucky Derby. So I have heard other racing
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: experts talk about there's sort of a wall of sound
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: that the horses have to run through when they come
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: around the turn and they are in front of the
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: grand stand down the stretch, and it's overwhelming if you
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: are hearing that for the first time, which all of
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: these horses are. How do you incorporate horses reacting to
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: the circumstances into your handicapping.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Well, the circumstances are massive here, so there's a few
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: things different about the Derby and different places that you
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: can watch these horses to kind of try and decide
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: if there's anyone that you want to throw out because
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: of how they are acting. So, first off, this is
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: one of the few races where the Kentucky Derby, or
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: the horses that are running in the race are walked
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: down the track and then back through the Churchill Downs
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: stands essentially to go to the paddock and get saddled,
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: so they have to meet that massive crowd walking down
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: the track for the first time. The walkover is a
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: great way to look at it. If you see any
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: horses that are skittish, that are kind of jumping on
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: their toes already because we're still thirty forty minutes out
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: from the race here using energy, right, or if they're
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: verbally talking so you hear loud Na's things like that,
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: those are horses that are a little jacked up and
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: that are reacting to that crowd, and that's something you
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: can look for. The second one would be in the paddock.
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: Once they get into the paddock, this is going to
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: be more people that are around them in that paddock
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: than they have ever had in their life. And that's
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: a precursor to what they're going to see when they
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: walk back out and actually break out of the gate.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: So if you have horses that are bucking in the paddock,
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: again being verbal in the paddock, it's called being studdish,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: then that's another thing that I would look for and say, well,
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: maybe we're using a little too much energy. We're not
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: going to really see how they react, and so that
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: to me is an issue there. We can consistently see
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: this a problem with your horses that have won the
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: UAE Derby, because this is the most drastic difference. A
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: lot of these US horses they've run in front of
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: big crowds, nothing like they'll see in Kentucky, but they've
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: run in front of big The horses that come from
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: internationals races have not seen nearly what they're going to
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: see on the first Saturday in May, and so that
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: would be one reason why you've never seen a UAE
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: Derby winner come over and win the Kentucky Derby, and
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: that's what Dermosote Degate is going to try and do
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: today or Saturday from the seventeen post. Also never seen
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: a Japanese horse win the race. Oh by the way,
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: the seventeen post has never won the Derby either, So
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: a bunch going against Dermosote de Gote on Saturday.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: I have one more question, Simon. I want you to
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: jump in, but do you feel like there is a
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: favored position that gives horses an advantage? And similarly, is
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: there a position that gives them a disadvantage or puts
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: them in a disadvantage.
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: So I'll start out with a disadvantage. The one through
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: four posts are atrocious. It's just it's a nightmare for
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: horses in those posts because you have twenty horses that
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: all want to get to the rail. That's what they're
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: taught every time. Their training is get to the rail.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: That's their natural idea and their minds is to get over.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: And when you have twenty horses that are all crunching down,
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: it can go really poorly for you. There's a horse
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: called non Agenda that was trained by Todd Pletcher two
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: years ago drew the one post was five to one
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: broke out of the gate in the top three by
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: the time across the first finish line because of how
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: many horses came over to the rail was in seventeenth.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: It is just so hard to get good trips from
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: those inside posts. Ideally you want to be sitting somewhere
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: between the sixth and the twelve post. That's the Being
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: in the middle gives you the most options, and that's
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: one of the keys here or the twenty horse field
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: where it's really important where the jockey places the horse.
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: If you're in the middle and you don't break well,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: you can decide where to go. You can use a
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: little horse, you can get over. If you're on the
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: inside and you don't break well, your race is over.
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: If you're on the outside and you don't break well,
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: your race is over. If you're in that middle group,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: you at least have options of what to do depending
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: on the scenario that's placed in front of you. So
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: you want to be somewhere in that six to twelve range.
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: This is a little off be put just going on.
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: That's what you said about these horses not being used
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: to a loud noises. Do they train them for that, like,
• 38:04
  Speaker 4: do they have them race and just have speakers around
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: the track and loud noises blaring so the horses can
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: get adjusted to that. I know it sounds crazy, but
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: I think they do that for a lot of people
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: in a lot of sports, like I know football, if
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: they're playing away game the whole practice, they just turn
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: the music all the way up and make the make
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: them scream their lungs out right to have everyone hear them.
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: Do you do the same with the horse. I mean,
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: you're spending millions and millions of dollars on these horses.
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: You think they would prep them as best they can
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: before this big race.
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: You would think.
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: You'd bring the noise right because like you always hear
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: about that in the NFL, like, hey, we're going to
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: blast the speakers. We're going to make sure that everyone
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: gets acclimated to the noise they're going to hear on Sunday. Now,
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: they don't do it in horse racing. You'll you'll have
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: them run over the track. You'll have them be on
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: their track with other horses. They'll do something called schooling
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: in the paddock. Well they're you know, you've seen different
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: derby horses school this week at Churchill Downs when there
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: are crowds and walk around the paddock so that there
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: is some uh some acclimation towards the surface and toward
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: what they're going to do on Saturday. But there is
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: nothing like that where they're gonna just jack up the noise,
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: mainly for the reason that they don't want to scare
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: any of the horses. And when you're out there and
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: you're training, it's not just Derby and Oaks horses that
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: are out there, it's also ten thousand dollars made Enclaimers
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: right the lowest level of horse racing. So you've got
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: this diverse group of horses on the race track. The
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: last thing you want to do is blast music and
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: scare one of them, and they start running off and
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: cause an accident with another horse, so you don't ever
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: get to fully replicate it. And then the last part
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: of it is these horses have never run in a
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: field of twenty. If you've ever been to the Derby
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: and heard twenty horses go by you, it is loud.
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: You just hear that clapping of thunder with all these hoofs.
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: And famously, like Palace Malice ran in the Kentucky Derby
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: went to the lead had heard everything behind him and
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: just jetted, just took off, and there was no way
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: to know he was going to react in that manner.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: But sometimes it happens at the derby where you've got
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: such a loud amount of sound right behind the leader
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: that they just they're like, I'm out of here, I
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: just want to go. So you never really know how
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: some of these horses are going to react, especially this
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: young three year old's not very old for a horse either.
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: I agree with that. I've looked at that life, Chad.
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: Nothing makes you run faster than fear. I don't know
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: if you've heard run from the cops, but I definitely
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: ran it under a four or five forty from the cops.
• 40:14
  Speaker 4: But going back to the horse racing, is there anyone
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: else you like for the underneath card?
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: On the undercard, I have a couple of horses I like.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: So we talked about the Florida Derby. The Pat Day
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: Mile is race number eight on Saturday. I'm a big
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: fan of Fort Bragg, who got a horrible break in
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: that Florida Derby and then rushed up. I think he's
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: going to be better at a mile than he was
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: going two turns. So Fort Bragg the seven horse in
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: the eighth race on Saturday. Another one I like it
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: if you want to watch it. The fourth race on Saturday.
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: You're going to see good Night Olive, who won it
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: the Breeders Cup last year. I think she's going down
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: on Saturday. There's a horse named Matt Terrea, the five horse,
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: who's seven to two on the morning line. You're going
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: to get a good price on her because you're fading.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: Good Night, Olive. I think she's got a big shot.
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: Second off the layoff, to fire into to knock off.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Good Night Olive Simon, For I have run from the popo.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: At the Great Bottle Rocket War on the Revenue School
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Playground of nineteen eighty seven, one person got nabbed Nobushala.
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: The rest of us scattered. You know what, He didn't
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: rat us out, spent the entire night getting interrogated by
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: the Highland Park Police. And he was the right one
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: to do it because he was the youngest of four,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: so he could hold out and his parents did not
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: freak out when it was time to go get him.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: We were all cowering at his house waiting for his
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: dad to go pick him up. Nobushala did not rat
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: and we ran like fucking crazy people to get away
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: from the Highland Park Police. Mike Samich, that was amazing.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: I feel fully briefed for the derby, and I feel
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: both romantic and ready to make a profit. I want
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: everyone to check out Mike Racingdudes dot com. You can
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: check out his stuff on Action Network, really really good stuff.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: Reminder to everybody, we'll be back talking NFL next week,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: going team by team with off season updates. We'll probably
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: have more news to break about dealings that are happening
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: because this is where the action happens. We are the
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. We are proudly presented by BET three sixty five,
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: action to get BET three sixty five's exclusive sign up offer,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: be one dollar on any game and get two hundred
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus. Bets must be twenty one or older.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Offer is available in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem call or text one eight hundred gambler. I
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. He is Simon Hunter, producer extraordinaires. Matt Mitchell,
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: producer extra extra ordinaire. Barbara Alberts on the YouTube, Download
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: us from Spotify, from Apple Podcasts, watch us live on
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: YouTube and on demand on YouTube wherever you get your
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: podcasts these days. Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars,
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time,
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: help Us available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: hundred gambler