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The Ukraine War And Energy Crisis · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcasted
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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at
0:18
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast. Lots of moving pieces in Ukraine.
0:24
Speaker 1: Let's get the latest. We're so fortunate of Agricuntrill on
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Speaker 1: the ground, I believe in Poland. She's a TV producer
0:31
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News. Tell us where you are, generally speaking,
0:34
Speaker 1: what you can disclose and kind of what you're seeing
0:36
Speaker 1: on the ground here. Hi, Yes, So I'm at the
0:40
Speaker 1: station in Cemisal, which is a town in southeast Poland
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Speaker 1: that has received a huge amount of refugees in the
0:47
Speaker 1: last several weeks. Um, I'm at the station here where
0:50
Speaker 1: a lot of refugees they're getting trained directly from Ukraine here,
0:54
Speaker 1: and also a lot of pedestrians that got went over.
0:57
Speaker 1: They came over the border on foot are then taken
1:01
Speaker 1: in busses from the border itself to this town. When
1:05
Speaker 1: you talk about not only the humanitarian aspect of this,
1:08
Speaker 1: but the economic aspect as well, Aggie, how we're both
1:13
Speaker 1: sides of this feeling the economic sanctions that have been
1:16
Speaker 1: put in place. Given as Paul said, I mean we're
1:18
Speaker 1: now entering week four, Yes, so we're clearly seeing from
1:24
Speaker 1: the European size that there is some sanction fatigue, potentially
1:29
Speaker 1: from countries that are worried about the impact to their
1:32
Speaker 1: own economies of the sanctions on Russia. The sanctions seem
1:36
Speaker 1: to have significant effect on the Russian economy, but Biden,
1:41
Speaker 1: who is coming to Europe in order to push for
1:43
Speaker 1: a harder hitting sanctions against Russia, is going to have
1:46
Speaker 1: to come up against a European Union that is quite
1:50
Speaker 1: split on how much they can double down on the
1:52
Speaker 1: sanctions in case it also hits parts of the European
1:55
Speaker 1: economy significantly, especially when we're looking at places like Germany,
2:00
Speaker 1: which is still so heavily dependent on Russian gas. Aggie.
2:04
Speaker 1: You're literally on the ground there, um as you see
2:07
Speaker 1: the refugees come in. How is Europe planning on dealing
2:10
Speaker 1: with what I've seen three to four million refugees and
2:14
Speaker 1: I guess that number is going to continue to grow.
2:17
Speaker 1: Is there a plan who's leading kind of the the
2:20
Speaker 1: way to house these refugees for what might be a
2:23
Speaker 1: fairly long stay. I think you're pointing at a key thing.
2:28
Speaker 1: There is the question of how long this day will be.
2:31
Speaker 1: Because in the short term the work has been quite
2:35
Speaker 1: efficient to manage to get people into places away from
2:39
Speaker 1: the border. For the most part, people are able to
2:41
Speaker 1: find accommodation, sort of ad hoc accommodation in other places,
2:45
Speaker 1: but that's putting a lot of pressure on cities. A
2:48
Speaker 1: huge amount of the refugees who arrived in Poland, for instance,
2:52
Speaker 1: are staying in Poland. The U N a c I.
2:54
Speaker 1: Sas is around all the refugees that came in to
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Speaker 1: Poland are probably going to stay there, and that means
3:00
Speaker 1: that there's going to be a lot of pressure on Poland,
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Speaker 1: a country that's already reeling from the coronavirus like many countries,
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Speaker 1: and trying to find the funding in order to secure
3:09
Speaker 1: housing and access to the labor market. And also because
3:12
Speaker 1: so many of these refugees are minors, many are unaccompanied miners,
3:17
Speaker 1: it's also a question of how to get them into
3:19
Speaker 1: the education system. And so in the short term it
3:21
Speaker 1: seems to have worked but it is a question is
3:24
Speaker 1: that what this means in the long term and how
3:27
Speaker 1: that's going to look going forward. And you think about Ague,
3:30
Speaker 1: this is a not only a story about Poland, but
3:33
Speaker 1: the rest of Eastern Europe that responds any sort of
3:36
Speaker 1: additional help they can get from more of the Western
3:39
Speaker 1: European countries, how is the rest of Eastern Europe responding
3:44
Speaker 1: acting and the likes a huge amount of Eastern Europe
3:49
Speaker 1: it feels the pressure that Russia is putting on Ukraine
3:52
Speaker 1: also themselves, and so first and foremost there has been
3:56
Speaker 1: a lot of solidarity on the ground to help the refugee,
4:00
Speaker 1: but they are expecting more support, especially fiscal support from
4:04
Speaker 1: the European Union, and that is something that a lot
4:07
Speaker 1: of these countries have been pushing for. And so going forward,
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Speaker 1: this is going to be a concern as to how
4:14
Speaker 1: the resource allocation works um for for instance, unlocking the
4:20
Speaker 1: Coronavirus Recovery Fund in order to support these countries that
4:24
Speaker 1: are dealing with these influxes of refugees. So, from your
4:28
Speaker 1: position on the on the ground there in Poland, is
4:30
Speaker 1: there a consensus as to how this might play out? Aggie?
4:36
Speaker 1: It's quite difficult to say, But the thing I hear,
4:38
Speaker 1: especially from a lot of the people coming over the border,
4:41
Speaker 1: is that they are really hopeful for this to be
4:44
Speaker 1: a temporary issue. Pretty Much everyone I speak to here
4:48
Speaker 1: has an intention to return to Ukraine at some point,
4:51
Speaker 1: and they do not want to settle completely in another country.
4:54
Speaker 1: They want to be able to return to their families. Also,
4:57
Speaker 1: because it is notable that so many of the people
4:59
Speaker 1: who left women and children, and they've often been split
5:03
Speaker 1: up from the men in their family who have remained
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Speaker 1: in Ukraine. So there is a concern for a lot
5:07
Speaker 1: of them that they hope that this is short lived.
5:10
Speaker 1: But as the war goes into its second month, there
5:12
Speaker 1: are a lot of people now looking at what those
5:15
Speaker 1: next steps will all. Right, control, We appreciate getting your
5:20
Speaker 1: thoughts in perspective. A contral she's a TV producer for
5:23
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. She has been she's based in Berlin, She's
5:26
Speaker 1: but she's been on that southeastern border of Poland and Ukraine,
5:31
Speaker 1: and she's getting us first hand reporting about the refugee
5:35
Speaker 1: situation and um as a continuous day by day and
5:38
Speaker 1: as she mentioned, going into the second month here, and
5:41
Speaker 1: I'm not sure anybody on either side thought that it
5:45
Speaker 1: would continue on here into its second month, but we
5:47
Speaker 1: will certainly continue our reporting, and we really thank Aggie
5:50
Speaker 1: for taking time out to share some of her first
5:53
Speaker 1: hand views of what's happening on the ground in that
5:56
Speaker 1: border of Poland and Ukraine. We've got a federal Reserve
6:04
Speaker 1: which has pivoted noticeably to a more hawkish view. We're
6:08
Speaker 1: talking about potentially seven eight rate hikes over the next year, uh,
6:13
Speaker 1: perhaps fifty basis point rate hikes. What are assets to
6:16
Speaker 1: do here? What are risk assets to do in that
6:18
Speaker 1: type of environment? Let's check them with Randy Swimmer, co
6:20
Speaker 1: head of Senior Lending and a senior managing director Churchill
6:23
Speaker 1: Asset Management. Randy, it's been a while since these financial
6:26
Speaker 1: markets have had to deal with a significantly um an
6:31
Speaker 1: environment that has significant rate increases in the offing. How
6:35
Speaker 1: do you think about that? Yeah, And in fact, it's
6:38
Speaker 1: the kind of thing that expectations for the kind of
6:41
Speaker 1: moves that have happened and that actually embarked on last
6:44
Speaker 1: week have been growing. And now that in fact that
6:50
Speaker 1: has been behind us. And in fact, if anything, UH
6:54
Speaker 1: FED j R. Powell has uh doubled down a little
6:57
Speaker 1: bit and said, hey, don't worry if things, if inflation
7:00
Speaker 1: doesn't get tamed, we're prepared to go even at fifty
7:03
Speaker 1: basis points. Uh per hike I think has given investors
7:09
Speaker 1: some kind of path to uh you know, less volatility
7:14
Speaker 1: in the sense that they know where this is headed. Now,
7:17
Speaker 1: what's into into the conversation has been ge do these
7:21
Speaker 1: federate hike because they potentially lead to a slowdown, and
7:26
Speaker 1: we're starting to see more observers coming out and starting
7:29
Speaker 1: to worry about that. UM Now, I still think that
7:32
Speaker 1: the signs, the economic signs that are around us, you know,
7:35
Speaker 1: with housing starts and commercial and manufacturing production still being
7:41
Speaker 1: up solidly, expectations for this year for GDP still you know,
7:46
Speaker 1: in that kind of high to the low threes range
7:50
Speaker 1: in a positive way, still is sending I think a
7:53
Speaker 1: very good growth message overall to UH two investors. So
7:58
Speaker 1: I don't think there's a chance of a recession and
8:00
Speaker 1: time soon, but it is at least giving certainly credit
8:04
Speaker 1: investors something to look at. But I do think that
8:07
Speaker 1: overall people are feeling now that if that's on a
8:11
Speaker 1: path removed some uncertainty regarding the direction certainly great and
8:16
Speaker 1: how many are going to be happening over the next
8:18
Speaker 1: year too, and then we'll see how this unfolds, you know, Randy,
8:22
Speaker 1: it's interesting I've heard a lot of commentary that Powell
8:26
Speaker 1: has been speaking a lot and talking about those big
8:29
Speaker 1: moves and the potential from maybe fifty basis points are
8:32
Speaker 1: moving faster than to make sure that the equity markets
8:36
Speaker 1: are doing a lot of his job for him when
8:39
Speaker 1: it comes to some of those fight UH tightening financial conditions.
8:43
Speaker 1: How are you thinking about the messaging from this Federal Reserve? Well,
8:48
Speaker 1: and in fact, they've done a very good job I
8:50
Speaker 1: think of removing a lot of a doubt once the
8:54
Speaker 1: pivot began in November when transitory was taken out of
8:59
Speaker 1: the out of their their playbook, and it became obvious
9:03
Speaker 1: that this was a pretty serious issue that was not
9:05
Speaker 1: going away in terms of inflation. Ever since November, you know,
9:09
Speaker 1: four months ago, we now have seen a pretty consistent,
9:12
Speaker 1: solid messaging coming out from the Fed. And I do
9:15
Speaker 1: think if you look at public equities as an example,
9:19
Speaker 1: have pretty much fully recovered values um, you know, certainly
9:23
Speaker 1: over the last thirty days as we saw following the
9:27
Speaker 1: Ukraine UH invasion February twenty four, so I think that
9:32
Speaker 1: generally markets have factored in both the worst case scenario
9:38
Speaker 1: at least we hope um for the Ukraine war, and
9:41
Speaker 1: then also to some extent where the ultimate endgame is
9:45
Speaker 1: for the FED, which they've advertised pretty much is going
9:48
Speaker 1: to end up at a kind of two to three
9:51
Speaker 1: uh FED funds rate, which would then match expected inflation.
9:55
Speaker 1: And I think we're seeing, um, you know, some stability
9:58
Speaker 1: in all markets. We still have not a new issue
10:01
Speaker 1: UH deal flow would turn to the high yield market
10:05
Speaker 1: or the leverage loan market in the great extent, but
10:08
Speaker 1: at least things have calmed down certainly over the last
10:11
Speaker 1: several days. Yeah, Randy, that that's where I wanted to go.
10:14
Speaker 1: I want, I want to take advantage of your experience
10:16
Speaker 1: in the leverage loan business, you know, with rising interest rates,
10:20
Speaker 1: how do you think you know, theo's private equity folks,
10:23
Speaker 1: which are such big consumers of of leverage debt leverage loans,
10:27
Speaker 1: how do you envision the M and A market over
10:29
Speaker 1: the next say, twelve months, we can see a pullback
10:31
Speaker 1: and activity. Do you think, Well, we came off a
10:35
Speaker 1: huge not just the Churchill but also just you know,
10:39
Speaker 1: with private equity deployment, private credit deployment. It was in
10:43
Speaker 1: many ways probably an environment that would be hard to
10:45
Speaker 1: replicate for this year. We still think activity UH and
10:49
Speaker 1: the M and A pipeline is going to be solid
10:51
Speaker 1: for this year. Certainly the economy. We believe people will
10:54
Speaker 1: continue to be constructive for credit. It doesn't have to
10:57
Speaker 1: be toward growth in order for credit to be two
11:00
Speaker 1: to work UM. And I think private equity, which has
11:03
Speaker 1: raised so much money over the last you know, three
11:06
Speaker 1: or four or five, seven years, UM, that dry powder
11:10
Speaker 1: which is going to be deployed, is going to be
11:12
Speaker 1: deployed UM in partnership with direct lenders such as Churchill
11:17
Speaker 1: that have worked with these private equity firms over many
11:21
Speaker 1: different texts of markets and through volatility when the public
11:25
Speaker 1: markets were either sidelinders set down, direct lenders such as
11:28
Speaker 1: ourselves had plenty of dry powder to help the dry
11:32
Speaker 1: powder of our private equi clients be deployed. So if
11:35
Speaker 1: you go back upstream and look at where the M
11:37
Speaker 1: and A market is, we're seeing evidence of another solid
11:40
Speaker 1: year with a number of EM and A bankers who
11:44
Speaker 1: are working on books to be launched over the next
11:49
Speaker 1: thirty days. Reports we get from them is it's going
11:53
Speaker 1: to be a very busy second quarter. And as long
11:55
Speaker 1: as the the p that we've just been talking about
11:58
Speaker 1: geopolitical and interest rates and inflation, which we think is
12:03
Speaker 1: going to get under control in most of the conomists
12:05
Speaker 1: believe it will as continue to go up. As long
12:09
Speaker 1: as those things continue on the path, we think the
12:12
Speaker 1: two is going to be poised for a little solid year.
12:14
Speaker 1: From her and then Nani, alright, good stuff, Randy, really
12:18
Speaker 1: appreciate you taking the time. Randy Schrimmer, co head of
12:20
Speaker 1: Senior Lending and Senior Managing Director Churchill Asset Management. One
12:27
Speaker 1: of the I guess the fallouts of the war in
12:30
Speaker 1: Ukraine is it's really highlighting the energy dependence that much
12:34
Speaker 1: of Europe, particularly Germany, has on Russia. And of course
12:38
Speaker 1: that raises a question I think here on these shores
12:40
Speaker 1: is how is the US position in terms of its
12:43
Speaker 1: energy independence. Checking with Marian Brown, she's a president of
12:47
Speaker 1: Southern California Gas Company, h Miriam, give us a sense
12:51
Speaker 1: of you know, I guess a lot of people are
12:53
Speaker 1: now probably thinking a little bit more about energy independence
12:57
Speaker 1: given what we're seeing in terms of the uncertain these
13:00
Speaker 1: and disruptions in Europe. How do you think about that? Yeah,
13:05
Speaker 1: thanks so much for the questions. So, when we think
13:07
Speaker 1: about energy independence, especially these days, we think about meeting
13:11
Speaker 1: the twin goals of energy security and the clean energy transition,
13:16
Speaker 1: and how best to meet that And obviously, I think,
13:20
Speaker 1: and you're hearing it from a lot of your viewers,
13:23
Speaker 1: as it's about investing in diverse domestic resources and that
13:28
Speaker 1: those resources need to increasingly be renewable over time. And
13:32
Speaker 1: I think the important thing there is that gas, like
13:35
Speaker 1: um like electricity, can be renewable. How do you make
13:38
Speaker 1: it reliable? Now? I mean, we've talked a lot about
13:42
Speaker 1: the importance of the shift to renewables, but when some
13:47
Speaker 1: of those fail or we've done it in such a
13:49
Speaker 1: way where it's so fast that it isn't reliable, how
13:51
Speaker 1: do you make sure that that transition is smooth and
13:54
Speaker 1: also reliable as well? Yeah, you complement renewable electricity, which
14:00
Speaker 1: can be intermittent, to your point, with renewable gases, which
14:03
Speaker 1: is what gives you that renewable and that reliability and
14:07
Speaker 1: that resiliency. And that's why you're seeing this tremendous momentum
14:11
Speaker 1: globally and also nationally on hydrogen. You know it is
14:15
Speaker 1: an energy dense gas, but it's not a greenhouse gas,
14:18
Speaker 1: and it makes renewables from sun and wind available seven
14:23
Speaker 1: three sixty five days a year. What role does how
14:26
Speaker 1: you're GM play. We think it's an important, growing part,
14:31
Speaker 1: important part of the mix that's going to help us
14:34
Speaker 1: to meet those twin goals around energy independence, energy security,
14:38
Speaker 1: and clean energy faster UM. We see UM from our
14:42
Speaker 1: end that the costs are coming down really significantly, and
14:45
Speaker 1: what it does is it adds to energy diversity. And
14:49
Speaker 1: any time you create a jump in the access to energy,
14:52
Speaker 1: you're going to have a positive impact on energy prices.
14:55
Speaker 1: And that's why you know our company has actually leaned
14:57
Speaker 1: in on hydrogen and we announced the Big Project UM
15:01
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago Angeles Link on it. Can you
15:03
Speaker 1: talk to us about the specific challenges that California faces
15:09
Speaker 1: In full disclosure, I'm from the Central Valley and in
15:11
Speaker 1: the summer we joke we're politely asked to unplug our
15:15
Speaker 1: appliances because it's a hundred and five degrees and there's
15:18
Speaker 1: no energy and no one can afford an eight hundred
15:21
Speaker 1: dollar electric bill when you're running the a C. So
15:25
Speaker 1: can you talk to us about the specific challenges that
15:27
Speaker 1: you're seen in California and particularly your southern California. Yeah. Absolutely,
15:33
Speaker 1: California is a bit of an island on energy and
15:37
Speaker 1: so UM we deal with a tense dynamic on supply
15:40
Speaker 1: and demand. And to your point, I think that there
15:43
Speaker 1: is an increased focus about needing to bring more supply
15:47
Speaker 1: um to customers and also managed demand with energy efficiency,
15:52
Speaker 1: and California does have a good story to tell on
15:56
Speaker 1: on energy efficiency per capita. But I think you're seeing
15:58
Speaker 1: a lot of focus in the state on bringing increased supplies. Miriam.
16:03
Speaker 1: About nuclear energy, how does that fit into the equation
16:07
Speaker 1: I'm hearing from certain folks within that space that you know,
16:10
Speaker 1: there's a lot of advances being made where you don't
16:12
Speaker 1: you don't need to build these huge nuclear facilities that
16:15
Speaker 1: pose a significant risk. Maybe you can do it on
16:17
Speaker 1: a much smaller, more nimble scale. How do you think
16:20
Speaker 1: about nuclear? Yeah, nuclear, that's a complicated issue here in California,
16:25
Speaker 1: But I think it's a complicated issue federally because we
16:28
Speaker 1: have a waste management issue. So I think it's whether
16:32
Speaker 1: it's a solution today maybe not, but can is it
16:35
Speaker 1: going to be a part of the solution eventually maybe,
16:38
Speaker 1: And so I think that we're in a place to
16:40
Speaker 1: accomplish the goals that we have. We need all technologies
16:43
Speaker 1: on the table, and I would include that one. How
16:47
Speaker 1: are you thinking about the impacts from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
16:51
Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about the gas market in Europe.
16:54
Speaker 1: Your taking look at European gas prices already up thirty
16:57
Speaker 1: or four percent on the day is Putin had been
16:59
Speaker 1: looking to seek payment in rubles. Europe though, feels distant
17:04
Speaker 1: right from the US and from your southern California. But
17:07
Speaker 1: what do you see as the impacts if any UM
17:10
Speaker 1: already here on this market. I think the lesson of
17:14
Speaker 1: the last several weeks really is urgency. There was already
17:18
Speaker 1: a trend and you heard about it at SERO Week
17:21
Speaker 1: two weeks ago, on the drive for energy security and
17:24
Speaker 1: clean energy transition. And I think that the experience from
17:28
Speaker 1: from what's going on in Europe and Ukraine UM really
17:31
Speaker 1: has put in urgency because I think, you know, this
17:34
Speaker 1: won't be the last cold winter, and it won't be
17:36
Speaker 1: the last hot summer that we just had, and it
17:38
Speaker 1: won't be the last geo political event that we have
17:41
Speaker 1: history may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.
17:44
Speaker 1: So we need to learn from this and UM accelerate
17:48
Speaker 1: our investments UM towards towards energy security and the clean
17:52
Speaker 1: energy transition. And Mariam just quickly here climate change. Boy,
17:57
Speaker 1: you just see coming out of the great state of California.
17:59
Speaker 1: If it's not wildfire, it's a mud slide, it's an earthquake.
18:02
Speaker 1: How does climate change factor into how you kind of
18:04
Speaker 1: think about your forecasting going forward? Climate policy is UM
18:10
Speaker 1: really needs to be a factor in investment decisions and
18:14
Speaker 1: managing climate risk is definitely part of our investment decisions.
18:18
Speaker 1: And part of that is future proofing our existing infrastructure
18:22
Speaker 1: and we've got a significant amount of it were the
18:23
Speaker 1: largest gas utility in the country UM. And another part
18:27
Speaker 1: of it is new infrastructure, so UM the announcement of
18:30
Speaker 1: the UM large green hydrogen project that we announced Angeles Link,
18:36
Speaker 1: that's part of it. And it's also as we modernize
18:39
Speaker 1: our infrastructure UM that we look to make it resilient
18:43
Speaker 1: to be able to adapt to changing climate and externalities.
18:47
Speaker 1: All Right, Marian Brown, thank you so much for joining us.
18:49
Speaker 1: Marian Brown, President of Southern California Gas Company. Let's switch
18:57
Speaker 1: ears a little bit and talk about recession hedges. We've
19:02
Speaker 1: been hearing a lot more. I think over the last
19:04
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, if people talking about recession as a
19:07
Speaker 1: result of this feder reserve action, then that might be
19:10
Speaker 1: a risk. And a lot of folks are saying, where
19:11
Speaker 1: do I go for some hedges? Is there any place
19:14
Speaker 1: in the commodity complex that I can go for some
19:17
Speaker 1: hedges on recession. Let's bringing Mike mcglogan's senior Commodity Strategies
19:21
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, if if I'm looking for a
19:24
Speaker 1: recession hedge, is there anything in your world of commodities
19:28
Speaker 1: that I should be looking at? Yes, But I think
19:30
Speaker 1: the first target should be gold because I think gold
19:33
Speaker 1: right now is almost entirely dependent on if the stock
19:35
Speaker 1: market goes down and if the Fed job owning works
19:40
Speaker 1: and if yields them bond y'll start declining from these levels.
19:43
Speaker 1: To me, that that would be the impetus for gold
19:45
Speaker 1: to just break out because it's so ready. It's really
19:48
Speaker 1: technically looks strong, fundamentally looks strong, but it has a
19:50
Speaker 1: major headman right now. It's tightening, stock markets going up,
19:54
Speaker 1: you know, higher rates, higher yields, if the stock market
19:57
Speaker 1: finally rolls over, gold should be the best place to be,
19:59
Speaker 1: in place that, you know, to really for a recession.
20:03
Speaker 1: I think gol would be the best heage. Because we
20:04
Speaker 1: get a normal recession, almost all commodity should collapse. And
20:08
Speaker 1: that's the problem. Crude oil right now is almost on
20:10
Speaker 1: the screen. It is almost triple that the US cost
20:12
Speaker 1: of production, which is part of that boom that we
20:15
Speaker 1: think we're going to have in commodity production in North America.
20:18
Speaker 1: Talked to us more about that. I mean taking a
20:20
Speaker 1: look at crude at a hundred and fifteen dollars of barrel,
20:22
Speaker 1: and it was two weeks ago when we were looking
20:25
Speaker 1: at one thirty five on some of the futures over
20:27
Speaker 1: on that big Sunday night movement. I remember that we
20:29
Speaker 1: saw and then there was a little bit of a
20:31
Speaker 1: relief as we briefly did below a hundred. But wow,
20:34
Speaker 1: I mean looking again back at one, what is that
20:37
Speaker 1: telling you? Yeah, it's tell me that we're more likely
20:40
Speaker 1: to have demand destruction now, because that's if history is
20:43
Speaker 1: a guy in the significance of this rally is it's
20:45
Speaker 1: the first one that's ever happened in crude oil futures
20:49
Speaker 1: with North America net energy, crudeil, liquid fuel exporter massive exporters.
20:54
Speaker 1: The most similar recent example was two thousand and eight
20:57
Speaker 1: crudel got to the all time high and then collap
21:00
Speaker 1: stated percent. The most recent example before that was from
21:03
Speaker 1: forty and then back to twenty that high put and
21:06
Speaker 1: then took fourteen years to take out. To me, we're
21:09
Speaker 1: at similar risk now because this demand destruction significant and
21:13
Speaker 1: virtually all that supply that people are saying is going
21:15
Speaker 1: to leave the market from Russia is going to China
21:17
Speaker 1: in virtually and China's demand has actually been declining. So
21:21
Speaker 1: to me, that's the key thing. And then one thing
21:22
Speaker 1: I'll leave you with. If you look on the forward
21:24
Speaker 1: curve one year from now, crude oil's training around ninety
21:28
Speaker 1: dollars a barrel. That's been a significant resistance and the
21:31
Speaker 1: curve for about fourteen years, and the high and the
21:35
Speaker 1: forward curve is still around one forty. So market price
21:37
Speaker 1: for the short term pain right now, and longer term
21:40
Speaker 1: supply comes back on and and the demand and goes backwards.
21:44
Speaker 1: To talk to me though about the differences in demand destruction,
21:46
Speaker 1: because I hear that if it's from a demand shock
21:49
Speaker 1: then that number is lower. But if it's a supply
21:51
Speaker 1: shock to where we are now, demand destruction may not
21:54
Speaker 1: be until we get up to one fifty barrel. Is
21:57
Speaker 1: there a difference in how you look at demand destruction
21:59
Speaker 1: based on what the shock is and where that shock
22:02
Speaker 1: is coming from. Yeah, well there's a fogg of a
22:04
Speaker 1: war here. So this is the most significant event of
22:07
Speaker 1: our lifetimes. And I've been around from the six decades.
22:09
Speaker 1: This is this compared to the Gulf War. This is
22:13
Speaker 1: nothing what Russia is doing and the destruction. I think
22:16
Speaker 1: the key thing to remember is the psychological impact of
22:19
Speaker 1: everybody in the world reading this on the tape. It's
22:21
Speaker 1: not going to increase consumer spending. It's going to do
22:23
Speaker 1: the opposite, and then there's a price factor. But the
22:26
Speaker 1: key thing to remember is short term. We just got
22:28
Speaker 1: the most stretched above you know, five year or four
22:31
Speaker 1: year mean and crudel. Ever, yet the market didn't make
22:34
Speaker 1: a new high. And why is that? Because it's a
22:36
Speaker 1: different world now, so it's really hard to quantify it
22:39
Speaker 1: exactly here. But I have to use my tools and say, sure,
22:42
Speaker 1: from these levels, who can make a new high? But
22:44
Speaker 1: if you look at the history of lessons, maybe we
22:45
Speaker 1: get the one fifty. The enduring result is we go
22:48
Speaker 1: back to fifteen stay there for ten years, which is
22:51
Speaker 1: where we have been. Fifty has been basically the average
22:53
Speaker 1: since the collapse in two thousand fourteen, and still it's
22:56
Speaker 1: well above the US cost of production. But here's a
22:58
Speaker 1: big difference. It's that dichotomy in North America really doing
23:01
Speaker 1: well as a net commodity exporter and Europe and the
23:04
Speaker 1: rest of the world getting heart hurt really bad with
23:07
Speaker 1: recession and being net commodity importers. Mike, here's the dumb
23:12
Speaker 1: question of the day. Can the world exist without Russian oil?
23:17
Speaker 1: And most notably can Europe exist without Russian oil? Well,
23:21
Speaker 1: that's the cool significant thing about this, Paul. We look
23:23
Speaker 1: back this from from the future, we're going to see
23:25
Speaker 1: they're fighting the twenties century war with fossil fuels, and
23:28
Speaker 1: the world's focusing on the twenty one century war economic
23:31
Speaker 1: and moving forward. And wait, so let's look at this.
23:34
Speaker 1: Peak energy consumption or liquid fuel consumption US occurred about
23:38
Speaker 1: four or five years ago and it's been in decline.
23:39
Speaker 1: And that's even before e v S. It's just embracing
23:42
Speaker 1: advancing technology. So once we get past this horrible period
23:45
Speaker 1: of destruction the markets. The world's gonna say, Okay, there's
23:47
Speaker 1: a better way we're gonna sell this. This process of renewables,
23:51
Speaker 1: and it's already started before, so I own an EV
23:53
Speaker 1: for a reason. But that's also going to ramp up
23:55
Speaker 1: when the most significant key tool retiions of the entire
23:59
Speaker 1: we've ever scene is that the whole manufacturing process in
24:03
Speaker 1: automobiles switching to e vs. That's gonna just six Sorry,
24:06
Speaker 1: but in the meantime we're probably gonna have to recession.
24:08
Speaker 1: And yes, Russia we can do without their energy. The
24:11
Speaker 1: problem is a fertilizer. That's what's gonna really hurt yields,
24:15
Speaker 1: and that's going to be a really boom for the Cornbill. Alright,
24:18
Speaker 1: Mike mcglogan giving us the lowdown on commodities, as he
24:21
Speaker 1: always does. Mike mclogan's senior Commodity Strategies for Bloomberg Intelligence.
24:26
Speaker 1: He is based in Miami Beach of Florida, which is
24:28
Speaker 1: a scam in and of itself, and I will get
24:30
Speaker 1: to the bottom of it at some point. Thanks for
24:33
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and
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Speaker 1: listen to interviews with Apple podcasts, or whatever podcast platform
24:41
Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt
24:44
Speaker 1: Miller three. On bal Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
24:48
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at
24:51
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio