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Shaky Resilience: Navigating High Yields and AI Optimism · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Welcome to the Spy Trader podcast !
• 0:03
  I am your host , Penny Wise , and I am so glad you could join me for our midafternoon market checkin .
• 0:09
  It is currently 2:30 pm on Thursday , September 24th , 2026 , Pacific Time .
• 0:17
  We are seeing a bit of a tugofwar on Wall Street today , what I like to call a period of shaky resilience .
• 0:24
  Even though our major indices are hanging out near their alltime highs , there is definitely some tension in the air thanks to a big jolt in the bond market and a Federal Reserve that is sounding a bit more like a hawk than a dove lately .
• 0:38
  Let us look at the scoreboard .
• 0:40
  The S&P 500 , which we track through the SPY , is virtually unchanged at 7,704.13 , down less than a tenth of a percent .
• 0:51
  The Nasdaq , or the QQQ , is also holding flat at 26,939.37 .
• 0:59
  Meanwhile , the Dow Jones Industrial Average took a bit of a tumble , dropping 0.3 percent to 51,349.98 .
• 1:09
  The big story today is really about those bonds .
• 1:12
  The 10year Treasury yield jumped to 5.11 percent today .
• 1:17
  That is the highest we have seen since 2007 !
• 1:21
  When you can get a five percent return that is essentially riskfree , it puts a lot of pressure on stocks .
• 1:27
  We are seeing that reflected in the TLT , which is the longterm Treasury ETF , as it continues its decline for the year .
• 1:35
  Looking at the sectors , Technology and Communication Services are still the stars of the show .
• 1:41
  We are seeing that narrow leadership continue with names like Nvidia and Meta leading the charge on AI optimism .
• 1:49
  On the flip side , Utilities and Consumer Discretionary are struggling .
• 1:54
  Real Estate , tracked by the VNQ , is having a hard time because those higher interest rates make financing much more expensive .
• 2:03
  Even Energy is starting to look a bit weak as global growth concerns and oil price fluctuations start to bite .
• 2:10
  In company news , Costco reported some really strong fourthquarter earnings today .
• 2:16
  They had an earnings per share of 6 dollars and 75 cents , beating the estimates , and their digital sales surged nearly 20 percent .
• 2:25
  However , the stock actually dipped a little bit .
• 2:28
  It seems investors are worried about how much more sweat is left in the consumers wallet with inflation staying so stubborn .
• 2:36
  Darden Restaurants , the folks behind Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse , also reported .
• 2:43
  While LongHorn is doing great , Olive Garden seems to be cooling off , and the stock fell about 5 percent after missing revenue targets .
• 2:51
  Then there is Tesla .
• 2:52
  It is still a real battleground for investors .
• 2:55
  They just landed a massive order for 2,500 of their Semi trucks , which is awesome , but their profit margins on cars are under pressure .
• 3:04
  Analysts have downgraded it to a Hold for now .
• 3:07
  Looking ahead , everyone is buzzing about OpenAIs DevDay on September 29th .
• 3:14
  There are rumors of new AI Agents that could automate office tasks , which is giving a nice boost to companies like Salesforce and Snowflake .
• 3:22
  So , what should you do with your money ?
• 3:24
  Right now , I recommend prioritizing high quality over pure growth .
• 3:29
  For your core portfolio , stick with the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , the VOO .
• 3:35
  But , you might want to slightly overweight the Financials using the XLF .
• 3:40
  Banks and financial institutions are actually benefiting from these higher yields .
• 3:45
  When it comes to AI , do not just look at the chip makers like Nvidia .
• 3:49
  Look at the big platforms like Microsoft and Meta .
• 3:52
  They have the cash to fund their own AI dreams without needing to borrow money at these high rates .
• 3:58
  For safety , I would stay away from longduration bonds like TLT .
• 4:03
  Instead , look at the AGG for bond stability .
• 4:06
  I also suggest keeping about 5 to 10 percent of your portfolio in Gold through the GLD ETF .
• 4:13
  It is a great hedge against inflation .
• 4:16
  Finally , if you want to diversify , look overseas .
• 4:19
  The VEA , which covers developed markets in Europe and the Pacific , has been doing well and is less sensitive to our U.S.
• 4:27
  interest rate drama .
• 4:28
  To wrap it up for today : maybe pick up some Costco if it stays weak , buy some XLF to ride the highinterestrate wave , keep an eye on Tesla but maybe wait until it breaks past that 380 dollar resistance level , and keep some gold in your pocket just in case .
• 4:46
  Thanks for listening to Spy Trader !
• 4:49
  I am Penny Wise , and I will see you in a few hours .