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Oil Chaos vs Crypto & Stock Market🔥 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All chaos is heading the markets. We're going to break
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: that down for you today. Before we get started, I
• 0:04
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• 0:38
  Speaker 2: So let's go for it.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I want to start with a couple of tweets here
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: this of course just in from bricks News. Want to
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: break down a couple of things that happened last night.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: President Trump says he knew nothing about the Israeli attack
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: on Oren's South Paris gas field. No more attacks will
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: be made by Israel pertaining to this, according to Trump,
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: so he was upset about that at The next event,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: of course, is where Iran has struck back. They hit
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Qatar and this is extensive damage on one of the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: biggest LNG facilities, which is Roslafan. This accounts for twenty
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: percent of global LNG supply. This would be unbelievably impactful
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: on the EU. If this were wintertime, this may be
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: because of the extensive damage. This may be impacting LNG
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: into the European nations all the way into fall and
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: possibly even next winter. So this is a big deal.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: And remember this is just started, guys. This is all
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: of this has just started, so we're continuing to see
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: these energy fees and costs starting to rise dramatically. The Pentagon, though,
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: has asked the White House to approve a two hundred
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: billion dollar spending package for the Iranian war. That's more
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  Speaker 1: than the entire Ukraine aid which was one hundred and
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: eighty eight billion over three years. And this is all
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: one single package. If you add that on to where
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: we are today, that would put us at a quarter
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: of a trillion dollars. How does this play into where
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: the markets are heading. One thing you have to look
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: at is the price of gas. Well, there you go
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: from two seventy nine. Now we're edging out at three
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: eighty four. We break four dollars a gallon, that's a problem.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: You break five dollars a gallon, that's a major issue.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: That's where we are right now. Gallons are going to
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: pretty much control what's happening in the midterm, so get
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: ready for that. If you look at crude oil right
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: now trading almost one hundred dollars a barrel, it did
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: clip one hundred dollars. It's the acceleration that you got
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: to concern yourself with is because it's a very short
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: period of time coming off of half of that price,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: and here we are leaning into that. So we haven't
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: seen this before since really all the way back in
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, where it's spiked almost thirty seven percent
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  Speaker 1: to that top right there, but it took some time.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: It took about six months. This is happening in a
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: period of thirty days. So let's be ready, guys. This
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: could continue to be a big issue. I want to
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: go to a clip real quick because this will get
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: into a little bit more detail on what Pete hech
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Saith is trying to do.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: Take a look two hundred billion dollars. I think that
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: number could move. Obviously, it takes money to kill bad guys.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: When you look at that clip, you've got to look
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: at one thing.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Probably the issue that I'm most concerned with is he's
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: talking about it could be.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: More, and that is a problem I think.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: If I mean, you're two hundred billion in you add
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: that to what we've already spent. Now you're talking about major,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: major impact on the federal budget. Here's said Pillows talking
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: about it. In my opinion, this war is no longer
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  Speaker 1: between the US and Israel and Iran. This war is
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  Speaker 1: now about to destroy the Gulf's entire infrastructure, the infrastructure
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  Speaker 1: that powers half the planet.
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  Speaker 2: And I'm in agreement with that.
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  Speaker 1: And you know, when we showed the Katar clip just
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  Speaker 1: a second ago, the fact that we've already seen twenty.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: Percent of L and G hit on this and this
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  Speaker 2: is early. I mean we're talking about less than a
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  Speaker 2: month on this stuff.
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  Speaker 1: So the imagined damage that could be in the GCC
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  Speaker 1: is huge. Right here, You've got the US now weighing
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: military reenforcements or Iran, especially as we go into a
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  Speaker 1: possible new phase that gets into a whole nother narrative
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  Speaker 1: if we actually put boots on the ground, which a lot.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: Of people have said, no way will ever do that.
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  Speaker 1: No, not a chance. I hope that is the case.
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  Speaker 1: If it is not, you can expect some things to hit.
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  Speaker 1: Now here was a breakdown of some best case scenarios
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: of how we could get out of this.
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  Speaker 2: Take a look.
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  Speaker 3: Best case scenario is that two hundred days from now,
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  Speaker 3: we're roughly around Halloween, things are back to where they
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: used to be before the bombing started. That's how disruptive
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: the Iran war has been. And Iran's own oil and
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: gas productivity and output has been bombed and is now
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  Speaker 3: shut in. And that's true in Kuwait, in Iraq, in Qatar,
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  Speaker 3: and a whole other host of these Arab producing nations
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  Speaker 3: that either have tankers sitting in the strait of poor
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: moves or just outside they can't move. This is not
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  Speaker 3: it's not your fingers, and it's over situation. And the
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  Speaker 3: president is absolutely not acknowledging that. I for one, am
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: not partened to hear Vice President Vance say this won't
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: last forever. I would like similar clarity. They started off saying,
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: you know, maybe two weeks, then we got maybe eight
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: weeks from hegxith and now we're at not forever. That's
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: not that's not helpful.
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  Speaker 2: I don't yeah, I don't like that either. I don't
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: like not forever either. One thing.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: But look at the trickle down effect here. You're talking
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: about LNG obviously crude. Now you get into helium, which
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: is another cooling agent if you want to run a
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: data center. And now you've got fertilizer being attacked. That
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  Speaker 1: of course is what most of the farming nations need.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: So you're starting to.
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  Speaker 1: Roll into a lot of supply chain that is critical
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  Speaker 1: and it all seems to be centered out out of
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: this particular area. So that alone, and then if you
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: look at polymarket seventy one percent right now, it is
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: starting to be somewhat this is on all time, but
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: remember this was down around sixty eight. It's holding still.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: This seems to be the timing is end of year.
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  Speaker 1: So back to that analyst, maybe she is right around
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: what that is going to look like. I want to
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: jump to another clip real quick, because this one will
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: go into a little bit about what Powell said yesterday
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: during the FOMC in relationship to jobs, and I'll explain
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: how this all connects to the market here in a
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: second take a look.
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  Speaker 4: But the implications of events in the Middle East for
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: the US economy are uncertain. In the near term, higher
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: too soon to know the scope and duration of the
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: potential effects on the economy. The thing that I think
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: good number of people in the committee are concerned about
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: is just a very very low level of job creation.
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: If you adjust what has been the trend job creation
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  Speaker 4: over the past let's say six months, just that for
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: what we think our staff thinks is the overstatement due
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: to overcounting. Effectively, there's zero net job creation in the
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  Speaker 4: private sector.
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  Speaker 2: That is not good news. Zero net job creation. You've
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  Speaker 2: got it right here.
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  Speaker 1: These are the jobless claims based on data that is
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  Speaker 1: out two five actual expected two fifteen.
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  Speaker 2: Previous was two hundred thirteen k.
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  Speaker 1: So you can see trends are not going good for
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  Speaker 1: the US in terms of jobs. Now, granted, there's still
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  Speaker 1: a lot of jobs being done, but what we're dealing
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  Speaker 1: with here is possibly a long conflict. Now you're dealing
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  Speaker 1: with supply chain pressures in the market, and you're dealing
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  Speaker 1: with the issues of an economy that's going to be
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: facing higher inflation. So how does that play out when
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: you look at this, because many people would.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: Be looking, all right, well, how do you play this market?
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: You've got gold starting to slip, silver absolutely cratering. Then
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: you've got the S and P starting to turn over.
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  Speaker 1: We're starting to see a downline trend, and even Bitcoin,
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  Speaker 1: which we thought had a run but is now traced
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: back all the way into the sixties. So here's Mark
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: cudboor Cudmore. He talks about how the market is finally registering.
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  Speaker 5: Take a look, and I think the way this is
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: kind of transpiring is probably the trajectory for the next
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: couple of weeks. In terms of that, we'll go through
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  Speaker 5: periods of trying to be in denial or being optimistic
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  Speaker 5: and then have step shifts lower until we have clarity
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  Speaker 5: about the strait being you know, sustainably opened. And I
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: just don't see how that clarity comes anytime soon. So
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  Speaker 5: I think what people are really starting to get suddenly
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: getting kind of grasped, is that the impact on some
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: of the derivative oil products. What we're seeing in oil
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  Speaker 5: market stay is quite extraordinary. Because WTI, when I walked
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: down to the studio was pretty much flat for the day,
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: and yet we're seeing Brent really surge higher.
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  Speaker 6: So that spread is.
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: Absolutely blowing out at the moment, and I think it's
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  Speaker 5: really problematic for specific economy, specific sectors, apart from the
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  Speaker 5: broader wealth destruction we're seeing all.
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  Speaker 2: Right, So Cudmore's right.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, we are seeing the variations of the impact,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: and it's a rolling impact that starts to get into
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: contagion effect if you go too far, too fast, which
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: is kind of where we are right now.
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  Speaker 2: A little too far and definitely a little too fast.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: The bitcoin dropping six percent to thirty percent over the
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: last six FOMC meetings, and of course we could see
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: a six percent taking us to sixty seven where we're
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: trading right now sixty nine, and then of course if
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: we go down thirty, it could go down to fifty.
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: So let me know in the comments, where do you
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: think it's going to go? After CHERA.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Powell's FOMC meeting yesterday where he was basically not looking
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: forward in terms of a good position around both jobs
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: and inflation, which is the worst thing because that's what
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: the Fed essentially is set to do. Polymarket fed rate
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: hike now starting to climb.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Look at this, guys.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I mean we're talking about a six percent now to
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: where we are today, all the way up here to
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: sixteen eighteen percent as of March nineteen. So fed rakehike
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: is starting to get in the cards here. We've got
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: two more most likely before we see Kevin Walsh come
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: to the FED chair. We don't know where Pal is
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: going to be yet, but imagine if Warsh comes into
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: a FED where we are seeing spiking gas prices, rising unemployment,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: and rising inflation. There would be only one thing he
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: could do and if he did that, and that would
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: be Ray's rates. If he did that, imagine what the
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Trump in Minisi and this would be the first Trump
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: administration FED at least on the second round. So man,
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: that would be who okay Trump would I think you'd
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: go ballistic on that. Muhammad talks about it a little
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: bit here, coming in from Bloomberg k not good news
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: for a market segment that is already challenged to separate
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: signal from noise, let alone properly differentiate. What he's talking
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: about is the fact that we're seeing private credit getting shorting. Yeah,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: this would be devastating. I think to these markets. Let's
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: jump to a clip real quick. This one is Christian Carlo.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: He talks about private credit and how it can work
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: on blockchain, which might be a solution.
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: Here.
• 11:07
  Speaker 7: Take a look if in the two thousand and eight
• 11:09
  Speaker 7: crisis we had financial cartography to be able to map
• 11:13
  Speaker 7: all of the exposures weave are known precisely what the
• 11:16
  Speaker 7: real risk is in the economy. People are panicking right
• 11:19
  Speaker 7: now about private credit. All right, well, all the private
• 11:22
  Speaker 7: credit transactions we're on a blockchain, we would know whether
• 11:25
  Speaker 7: we've got reason to panic or not. We just don't
• 11:27
  Speaker 7: know because we don't have that precision.
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: So that was Jan Carlo talking a little bit about that.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that opens up everything in terms
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: of fixing private credit because we are in a big
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: mass right now. How does this roll out though? Is
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: this going to go into the regular market, I think
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: is the question. And again, sorry guys, just under the weather,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: still trying to get a voice back, So hopefully.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: We get through this one.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Data tokenized equities now served from one hundred million to
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: four billion. This is since twenty twenty five, So look
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: at that tokenized entities right now, Our equities right now
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: continuing to climb. This is only going to get bigger
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: over the next few months as we start to see
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: things forward. And of course the big news was the
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: S and P five hundred officially going twenty four to
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: seven on markets. This is in with hyperlinqud XYZ. Huge
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: moves here that I think start to change the markets
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: for sure. Here's Trump, though, setting up what I think
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: is the most important meeting that he should be happening
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: right now. We're the world leaders at least, and that
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: is was Jijiping, and they have delayed this by up
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: to five to six weeks. Now what that tells me
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: something is not right with the war, and I ran
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Trump is trying to back away from this, and this
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: could move out to three plus months. If we go
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: out three plus months, things could get very nasty. Now
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: granted he could spend on a dime and just say, oh,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: we're going to do the meeting next week. We decided
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: to go there if something changes for Trump, so be
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: on the lookout that right there would be a huge
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: indicator for the market.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: Here said he hits.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: In the end, I ran as negotiating with eight countries
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: to allow passages through the Strait You've got a lot
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: of conditions right now. It's on Chinese yuan, which is interesting.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: It's all about power control, the route control, the currency,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: control the game. I don't know that that will be
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: much of an issue, but you are going to be
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: dealing with, I think, a continued creative model of the
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Iranians and how they're going to be doing so.
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: And they they're kind of tricky. They're kind of tricky.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: One of their clip I want to get to because
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: this is China trying to compete with the US in
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: the crypto markets.
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 13:34
  Speaker 8: When Treasury Secretary Scott Besson he was asked precisely this
• 13:38
  Speaker 8: question around whether China might be using digital assets and
• 13:42
  Speaker 8: blockchain to compete with the US, he acknowledged that possibility,
• 13:46
  Speaker 8: and he actually said, you know, I would not be
• 13:48
  Speaker 8: surprised if they were building digital assets potentially you know,
• 13:51
  Speaker 8: backed by gold rather than the un Given how active
• 13:56
  Speaker 8: Hong Kong is in the crypto space.
• 13:59
  Speaker 6: That paper should make Hong Kong quite competitive globally. That
• 14:03
  Speaker 6: being said, though, Hong Kong is still a very small
• 14:06
  Speaker 6: market and it still hasn't attracted the capital that the
• 14:10
  Speaker 6: US has.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Slam Dunk, He's right, that is the case. Right now,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: they would have to explode into China. Beijing would have
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: to get involved in a big way for it to
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: even become somewhat close, much less the amount of access
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: that you would have to open up to. So I
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: don't think China's going in that direction. I'm still on
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: the fence to whether or not they even want digital
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: assets over there.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Japan met with President Trump. This is Taikeiichi and uh, well,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: you guys, listen to the clip.
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 14:40
  Speaker 9: Why didn't you tell us eyes in Europe and Asia
• 14:45
  Speaker 9: like Japan about the war before attacking Ure? So we
• 14:48
  Speaker 9: are very confused about Japanese.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: Well, one thing, you don't want to signal too much.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: You know, when we go in, we went in very.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Hard, and we didn't tell anybody about it because as
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: we wanted surprise.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Who knows better about surprise than Japan?
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: Okay, why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?
• 15:08
  Speaker 8: Okay?
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Right, he's asking me, do you believe in surprise?
• 15:15
  Speaker 8: I think much more so than us.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I think that tells it right there. This
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: is an ally and it's a big ally in digital assets.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: So I just don't think Trump does not need to
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: burn bridges. He needs to create relationships. Get away from
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: these kind of questions. Come on, PR guys, let's do
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: some work Caroline. If you like this video, like and subscribe,
• 15:46
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• 15:49
  Speaker 1: private member group.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: The link is in the description.