Latest / Closing Market Report / Jul 29 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260729 The July 29, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report examines agricultural market volatility, variable crop conditions, and regional weather impacts. Analyst Greg Johnson attributes recent market shifts to uncertainties surrounding Chinese soybean purchases, U.S. tariffs and a highly variable U.S. corn crop. A review of the USDA crop progress report indicates advanced development in the upper Midwest, while the Crop Protection Network currently assesses a low risk for tar spot disease across the region. Josh Linville warns of a fall phosphate fertilizer shortage, why farmers might forego applications, and what happens if demand surges unexpectedly. Meteorologist Drew Lerner concludes the broadcast by analyzing recent heat stress in the northwestern Corn Belt, noting that impending rainfall should prevent severe production losses. 00:20 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing 09:36 Weekly Crop Progress Report State Anomalies 11:43 Crop Risk Tool & Tar Spot Development 14:58 Phosphate Fertilizer Squeeze with Josh Linville 17:19 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc. --- Todd Gleason: December corn futures finished 8 and 3/4 lower. November beans were down 27 and a 1/4. We have much to talk about. This is the Closing Market Report. I’m Todd Gleason. announce: Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. 00:20 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, totalgrainmarketing.com, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Greg, thank you for being with us. How are you doing today? Greg Johnson: It’s a slow day today with the markets down. The phones just don’t seem to be ringing like they were last week. Todd Gleason: What day did I not sell soybeans last week? That’s the crop I have to sell this year. Do you know which day I didn’t sell? Greg Johnson: The day we made a new contract high, probably. Todd Gleason: Yes, it was Friday. I sat there and looked at it, and because I had Bosse on the air and he was bullish, I held off. Speaking of which, Golke will be on in Kurt Kimmel’s place. Congratulations to Kurt on his retirement, so he won’t be there next Monday, but we should be able to talk to Jerry about how he views this marketplace. It should be an interesting conversation. I honestly think that high on Friday had him concerned, too, so we’ll talk to him about that. But I want to know what you think this crop is really like. I was in St. Louis yesterday for Susan Stroud’s No Bull Ag conference put on with Bloomberg. It was a fantastic day. I did not record anything because sometimes I just like to sit and try to learn. A lot of the folks up front were talking about money flow and how commodities in ag play on the world stage, which is what I think you’re going to talk about today with me. It was very interesting because there is so much money around the world, and the ag space gets played in. The basis is not unhooked from it, right, Greg? It’s not that they push so much money in that the basis has changed dramatically; it just gives volatility, which offers opportunities on both the up and downside. Let’s start with what you think this corn crop in the United States looks like today. Greg Johnson: Every year we say that it’s variable, and this year is no exception. With the heavy rains we had early in a lot of places, it is now starting to turn dry up in the Dakotas, western Iowa, Nebraska, and parts of Minnesota. Even parts of Illinois have turned dry, but you can drive 15 or 20 miles down the road and see a very good crop. The bottom line is it’s extremely variable. How do you put a number on that? Obviously, you can’t yet. USDA is using a 183 average, and the private models range anywhere from 179—which is four bushels below USDA—all the way up to 186. There are a couple of big outfits that are still at 186. The bottom line is nobody knows. We look at crop ratings on a weekly basis. Normally, this time of year, the corn crop is 66% good to excellent. This year we’re at 63%, so we’re a little bit below average. That makes me think maybe we’re at 182 for a national yield instead of 183. But again, there is really no correlation between crop ratings on July 27th and the final yield. We’ve had years where the ratings are much lower than this, and we’ve had above-trendline yields. We continue to have good crops regardless of the weather and ratings. Will this year be different? I guess we’ll find out. There is certainly a wide range of opinions on where the final corn and bean yields will end up, and I think that’s one reason for the volatility we’ve seen thus far. Todd Gleason: I know farmers look out and think this crop doesn’t look that good, and they’re not wrong. Here in Champaign County, it looks better today than it has all season long. However, I drove to St. Louis and back through Decatur, Springfield, and Heyworth, and it does look ragged in places. But then I thought, what does a normal crop look like, and when was the last time we had a normal-looking crop rather than a great crop? It has been years since that was really the case. We will just have to wait and see what USDA does for the crop production report to get that August 1st number. Now, the thing I think that is in the marketplace, and has been, is China. On the way up, that might have been because China was trying to make sure the Strait of Hormuz was open, and then tariffs stepped in. The markets are really tariff-fied at this point about what that means for agriculture in the United States. Greg Johnson: I like that. The markets are tariff-fied of the tariffs. The Section 301 tariff that President Trump is talking about has some traders concerned that other countries—both friends and enemies—will retaliate by putting tariffs on our products. The main thing we export is agricultural-related. Regarding China specifically, the rumor today is that China will not fulfill their commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of the calendar year. I’ve wondered all along if that wouldn’t be more of a commodity-year timeline instead of a calendar year, even though the U.S. says it is a calendar year. But we have not seen the actual agreement or memo of understanding between the U.S. and China. Todd Gleason: There’s a sticky note in the Oval Office somewhere. Greg Johnson: Exactly. Today, the skepticism is out, and that’s why beans are down double digits, fearing that China will not buy that 25 million metric tons, which is 900 million bushels—roughly half of our total world exports. It’s a very important question, and that uncertainty has the markets down today. Plus, the forecast has changed a little bit. It looks like the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Iowa are going to start getting some rain mid-to-late next week, which would obviously help. Forecasts can change from day to day, but that’s what we are working with today. Todd Gleason: Is there anything else we ought to be watching in this marketplace today or things coming up that will change the market? I know we have the crop production numbers in the month of August. Greg Johnson: I still think we have to keep an eye on the big picture. If we grow 95.3 million acres of corn and have a 182 yield, that’s a 15.9 billion-bushel production. Demand is 16.2 billion. So, we cut into the carryout by 300 million, bringing it from 1.8 to 1.5 billion. We really can’t afford to have a below-average crop without some kind of price rationing involved. It is the same for soybeans. With 85.4 million acres, if you take a 52-bushel yield instead of 53, that cuts into the carryout by about 150 million bushels, taking it down from 310 to 160, which is extremely tight. We’re not out of the woods yet. We need rain in August to finish out this crop. It boils down to profitability. If we can make money at $5 corn, $12 beans, and $7 wheat, we probably should sell some. Prices could go higher, but if you can make a profit, it’s not a bad idea to lock it in. Todd Gleason: I was just hoping this week was profit-taking, but maybe I’m wrong. Thank you very much, Greg. We appreciate it. Greg Johnson: Thanks, Todd. Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson is with TGM, totalgrainmarketing.com. Stay with us; we’ll hear from Josh Linville of StoneX about the fertilizer outlook in just a few minutes. 09:36 Weekly Crop Progress Report State Anomalies Todd Gleason: Let’s go back to the USDA report released on Monday. The weekly crop progress report had some state anomalies, but we’ll start with the national overview. 78% of the corn crop was silking around the nation Monday, running ahead of the five-year average of 74%. 25% of the corn crop was in the dough stage, and it was rated 63% good to excellent. 80% of the soybeans nationally were blooming on Monday, and 47% were setting pods, which is well ahead of the five-year average of 39%. The national soybean condition was rated 63% good to excellent. Here are some of the statewide differences from historical averages. In general, the upper Midwest and Northern Plains states are ahead of schedule. Minnesota corn is 87% silked, 17 points ahead of the five-year average. A quarter of that crop has reached the dough stage, which is about twice the usual number. 61% of soybeans in Minnesota are setting pods, compared to the five-year average of 38%. In South Dakota, corn silking reached 78%, coming in 17 points ahead of average. Soybeans blooming were at 78%, well ahead of the 62% average. North Dakota soybeans setting pods were at 46%, outpacing the 29% average by 17 points, and corn silking was at 57% compared to the 46% average. Here are the important states related to corn: Illinois, Iowa, and Nebraska. In Iowa, while corn and soybeans were tracking close to normal, corn silking is moderately ahead at 87% versus the 80% average. Illinois is about normal, with corn silking slightly behind at 86% compared to 88%. In Nebraska, corn and soybean development are right on their historical averages. 11:43 Crop Risk Tool & Tar Spot Development Todd Gleason: Now, let’s turn your attention, as I have done each week during the month of July, to the Crop Protection Network at cropprotectionnetwork.org. This is operated by plant pathologists across the nation and tracks diseases in major crops. Rather than using the tool we’ve been discussing, I want to turn to the Crop Risk Tool, which assesses the weather and the risk of disease development. Today we’ll go through tar spot. At the end of June, here in Urbana, the assessment was a high risk for tar spot development at 35%. However, today, if you do not have tar spot in your field, there is just a 3% risk it will develop. Crawfordsville today is at 4%, down from 50% early in the month. Terre Haute, Indiana, is at 2%, down from a 21% moderate risk earlier in July. Kankakee, Illinois, had a 58% chance of tar spot development at the end of June; today, that number is 6%, though it predicts a slight increase to 12% by August 2nd, so you should keep scouting that area. Springfield, Illinois, currently has just a 1% chance. Galesburg had a 42% risk at the beginning of the month and is down to 3% today. In northern Illinois near DeKalb, there was a 76% chance at the end of June. That dropped through the 4th of July weekend to 40%, down to 15% by July 19th, and sits at 8% today, with an expected increase to 17% by August 4th. The Crop Risk Tool assesses the probability of disease development, and you should be using it before you ever put a plane in the air. Check it out at cropprotectionnetwork.org. 14:58 Phosphate Fertilizer Squeeze with Josh Linville Todd Gleason: I know you’ve been thinking about your fall fertilizer programs, and I have two things for you today related to phosphate. Earlier in the week, Cesar Delgado sent me an interview he had done with Josh Linville at StoneX. I pulled a soundbite of Josh talking about his biggest worry for the fall, which focuses on phosphate rather than the availability of nitrogen. Josh Linville: I have a lot of concerns regarding the phosphate market. When I look around the world, the phosphate market has been impacted far more than everything we’re seeing in nitrogen. Nitrogen gets all the attention, but phosphate is getting hurt significantly worse. If our demand was normal, I would be petrified of what this coming fall is going to look like. However, I think the demand destruction is going to be immense. You’re going to see a lot of farmers who look at their soil tests and say they have good levels, allowing them to reduce their application rate or skip it altogether this cycle. At this point, I think demand destruction this fall is going to be 50% from normal rates. I think the demand loss will help balance what we’ve lost on the supply side, so I’m not as concerned there. My biggest concern is that we get close to fall, there’s a change of heart by farmers, and they decide to apply at the last minute when the supplies aren’t there. Or maybe grain prices continue to go up, and suddenly it makes financial sense to start applying it. Any last-minute demand surges are what really worry me. Todd Gleason: Josh Linville is with StoneX. As it happens, one of the crop scientists, Andrew Margenot from the University of Illinois and the Land Grant, has written about phosphate and how farmers should be thinking about it this fall for the farmdocDAILY website at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu. 17:19 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc. Todd Gleason: Let’s turn our attention now to the weather forecast. Drew Lerner is here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. At the end of July, Drew, I’d like to think about what the weather has been like, particularly in the northwestern part of the Corn Belt. It seems the crop is really ahead. Are they ahead because they planted so early, or because the weather has been so bad? Have you been thinking about this very much? Drew Lerner: Yes, I have, because that seems to be the question on everybody’s mind. The news media images are pretty impressive; we saw temperatures up to 115 in Montana a few weeks ago, and 114 last weekend in South Dakota. When those images are presented, we immediately think the crop must be dead. I did an assessment on this, and a couple of things stood out. First, all the temperatures that were 100 degrees or above were actually to the west of most key corn and soybean producing areas. We saw 90s in some corn and bean country, but not the extremes. Secondly, in early July, we had plenty of moisture on the ground in the northwestern Corn Belt. By July 14th, the topsoil had firmed up, but the subsoil was still in good shape. Without 100-degree temperatures in the key producing areas of the eastern Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska, the crop was hanging in there fairly well. Stressed? Yes, but facing huge production losses? Probably not. The second half of July came along and was much drier and hotter, which was more punishing for crops already low on moisture. However, the change in subsoil moisture from July 14th to July 28th was not that dramatic. I would say maybe 25% of the key corn and bean country in the northwestern Corn Belt reached a point where crops were stressed enough to shut down or lose yield potential. But tomorrow and Friday, we have a rain event coming that will deliver one to two inches. It won’t be enough to fix all moisture deficits, but for a crop only seriously stressed for two weeks, I’m not sure we’ve lost that much. Our August outlook suggests more timely but below-normal rain, with fluctuating temperatures. I think the soybean crop is probably doing all right; it’s stressed and needs moisture, but it will get some. We have probably shaved some yield off the corn, but the rest of the Midwest is in fairly good shape moisture-wise. I really don’t think we’ve hurt this crop that badly. Todd Gleason: I suppose the point is I don’t hear from Iowa or Minnesota farmers, and when they’re quiet, that means things aren’t too terribly bad. Drew Lerner: That’s a good point. When you look at this, it’s probably more of a spring wheat and canola issue because it was far more stressful for Montana, western parts of the Dakotas, Alberta, and Saskatchewan rather than key corn and soybean areas. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much. We’ll talk with you again next week. Drew Lerner: You bet. Todd Gleason: Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. He joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It’s public radio for the farming world, online, on demand at willag.org. I’m Todd Gleason.