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Are the US and Israel actively seeking an off-ramp for the Iran war · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Ben Friedman is policy director at Defense Priorities. That's a
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  Speaker 1: US foreign policy think tank that advocates for a more
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  Speaker 1: restrained American military strategy and reduced overseas interventions.
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  Speaker 2: Welcome back to DW.
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  Speaker 1: We're now more than twenty four hours on since Donald
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  Speaker 1: Trump said there had been productive talks with Iran, were
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  Speaker 1: still seeing Israeli strikes on Tehran and in denial from
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  Speaker 1: Iran that any talks have taken place.
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  Speaker 2: What's your reading of this?
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  Speaker 1: Do you see Washington and Tehran actively seeking an off ramp.
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  Speaker 3: I certainly see Washington seeking one, and I think President
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  Speaker 3: Trump is likely exaggerating what are back channel indirect connections
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  Speaker 3: with the Iranians, where there's been some talk about conditions
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  Speaker 3: of a potential ceasefire or end of the war, but
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  Speaker 3: nothing very formal. The Iranians, i think, feel that although
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  Speaker 3: they've suffered a lot in this war, that they're on
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  Speaker 3: the front foot in the sense that the oil and
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  Speaker 3: energy situation means that Trump feels he needs a way out,
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  Speaker 3: a solution, and that they can demand a lot. So
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  Speaker 3: I don't think even the kind of deal on nuclear
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  Speaker 3: weapons that was available before the war will still be available.
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  Speaker 3: I think the terms that Trump would have to agree
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  Speaker 3: to are going to be much worse than what would
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  Speaker 3: have been the case before the war. If he is
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  Speaker 3: seeking some real agreement to end the war.
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  Speaker 2: That's interesting.
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  Speaker 1: You think that Iran's position has been strengthened by this war.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, the Iranians feel that it's been strengthened certainly, and they,
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  Speaker 3: I think are correct in that Trump has revealed the limits,
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  Speaker 3: I think of what the United States can accomplish militarily.
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  Speaker 3: He's shown through failure that the regime change fantasies that
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  Speaker 3: he harbored, encouraged by the Israelis are wrong.
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  Speaker 2: And Iran has.
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  Speaker 3: Shown what I think most experts already thought, which was
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  Speaker 3: that it can withstand a lot of damage and the
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  Speaker 3: government will continue to function and continue to run its economy.
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  Speaker 3: So it's I think the case that Iran is in
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  Speaker 3: a better negotiating position than they were were prior to
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  Speaker 3: the war, even though they've suffered a lot of damage.
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  Speaker 1: Even if Washington and Tehran did a deal, would Israel
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  Speaker 1: necessarily consider itself a bound to stop attacking.
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  Speaker 3: No, I mean, I think the real problem here is
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  Speaker 3: that let's say there's a deal that would end the war,
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  Speaker 3: we need Israel to come along with it. Otherwise there's
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  Speaker 3: no guarantee that the Iranians would would have any reason
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  Speaker 3: to hold up their end or agree to it in
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  Speaker 3: the first place if the Israelis don't agree to stop.
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  Speaker 3: And I think there's another option here, which is that
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  Speaker 3: the United States doesn't need a formal deal to end
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  Speaker 3: the war. I don't think we really need anything from
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  Speaker 3: the Iranians, not on nukes, not on missiles. That was
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  Speaker 3: sort of unnecessary propaganda to get us into the war.
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  Speaker 3: The one thing we do need is to solve a
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  Speaker 3: problem that we created with the war, which is to
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  Speaker 3: get oil shipments flowing again. So I think in the
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  Speaker 3: United States where to stop it's end of the war.
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  Speaker 3: The iraniance might agree, even if they don't do so formally,
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  Speaker 3: to stop attacking oil shipments sooner or later, but not
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  Speaker 3: if the Israelis are still attacking them. So what's needed,
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  Speaker 3: I think is that the president President Trump be willing
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  Speaker 3: to do something he hasn't really been willing to do heretofore,
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  Speaker 3: which is to lean on the Israelis and pressure them,
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  Speaker 3: not just rhetorically, but pressure them by potentially withholding aid
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  Speaker 3: and other forms of protection we give them unless they
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  Speaker 3: go along with us on this.
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  Speaker 2: So I think that that's what it will take.
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  Speaker 3: To end the war, not an agreement on nukes, which
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  Speaker 3: is unlikely because the war is driven around away from that,
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  Speaker 3: but a effort to control the Israelis so that we
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  Speaker 3: can get oil flowing again.
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  Speaker 2: And why hasn't that happened? Why are we.
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  Speaker 1: Talking about back channel US Iran talks rather than back
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  Speaker 1: channel US Iran and Israel talks. If it needs all
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  Speaker 1: of these three parties to be bound into this, why
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  Speaker 1: are only two parties apparently talking.
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  Speaker 3: Well, the Israelis are much more aggressive and fond of
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  Speaker 3: this war than the American side, and as the Trump
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  Speaker 3: Administration has admitted, they more or less pushed. The Trump
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  Speaker 3: Administration was pushed into the war by the Israelis for
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  Speaker 3: fear that, you know, US troops would be attacked when
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  Speaker 3: the Israelis launched their attack. And so the Trump administration,
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  Speaker 3: like the Biden administration, has proven unwilling to take a
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  Speaker 3: hard line with the Israelis and threaten them with taking
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  Speaker 3: away things that we give if they don't go along
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  Speaker 3: with what we asked. And the Biden administration's case was
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  Speaker 3: on Gaza in this case, it's far more important because
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  Speaker 3: it's a war that we're in, and you know, there's
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  Speaker 3: a lot of political reasons for that, but the bottom
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  Speaker 3: line is we haven't had a president and President Trump
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  Speaker 3: was willing to do it.
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  Speaker 1: Let's go back to the Strait of Hormus, which, from
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  Speaker 1: if I read you correctly, you think is the key
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  Speaker 1: to America looking for peace in this It's easy for
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  Speaker 1: armchair generals to look at a map, look at Google maps,
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  Speaker 1: and say, well, any fool could have seen this coming.
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  Speaker 1: Why wasn't the United States ready for it? Now, if
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  Speaker 1: you're a learned defense policy analyst, what would be your
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  Speaker 1: answer to that question, Well.
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  Speaker 3: Any fool could have seen it coming, and unfortunately, the
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  Speaker 3: President of the United States is not even that kind
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  Speaker 3: of fool. I mean the security EKU, the security studies
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  Speaker 3: community in the United States, the foreign policy establishment. The
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  Speaker 3: United States military has been preoccupied for decades with the
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  Speaker 3: concepts or the fear that in the event of a
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  Speaker 3: war with Iran, they would attack shipping in the Strait
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  Speaker 3: of Hormuz. We never made them desperate enough to exercise
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  Speaker 3: that threat. But what they're doing now is something most
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  Speaker 3: people always understood. They could do, and that they would
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  Speaker 3: do if we put a gun to their head in
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  Speaker 3: the way that we have, because it's really the best
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  Speaker 3: leverage they have to actually affect regular Americans. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: they don't have missiles that can hit the United States
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  Speaker 3: bases in the Middle East, yes, but not the United States.
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  Speaker 3: They didn't have an active nuclear weapons program. Contrary to
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  Speaker 3: everything the Trump administration claimed, it was largely destroyed and
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  Speaker 3: wasn't necessarily being weaponized at any event, so they weren't
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  Speaker 3: really a threat to US. So by attacking them, however,
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  Speaker 3: we created a real problem, which is we caused them
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  Speaker 3: to go after oil shipments and drive up prices and
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  Speaker 3: create real economic problems all over the world. And why
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  Speaker 3: Trump didn't anticipate that, I'm sure he was briefed on
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  Speaker 3: the possibility by his military aids, but he chose to
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  Speaker 3: dismiss it. I guess out of arrogance, or because he's
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  Speaker 3: listened to the wrong people, or because he didn't think
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  Speaker 3: it was that serious a problem. I'm not really sure,
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  Speaker 3: But the bottom line is it was obviously going to
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  Speaker 3: be a problem, and he ignored it.
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  Speaker 2: Anyway. Do you find it surprising?
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  Speaker 1: But even as the speculation about talks to end this
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  Speaker 1: war increases, there has been a distinct lack of discussion
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  Speaker 1: about what comes next.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I've tried to drive some discussion there
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  Speaker 3: myself in writing, but I think, you know, the media
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  Speaker 3: and the administration for natural reasons, are focused on the
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  Speaker 3: here and now, on the tactics and course of the war.
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  Speaker 3: But obviously, in any kind of piece, even if it's
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  Speaker 3: not a piece deal, it's just a de facto piece,
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  Speaker 3: you know, you need to get there, You need to
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  Speaker 3: think through what the conditions are going to be. So
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  Speaker 3: what comes next is always a vital question in the
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  Speaker 3: course of making a war. I think it's another indictment
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  Speaker 3: of the Trump administration that they don't seem to have
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  Speaker 3: thought that through very clearly before launching this war. And
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  Speaker 3: for my part, I just think it's important that more
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  Speaker 3: people in the United States and Europe recognize that what
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  Speaker 3: we need from Iran is quite small. You know, we
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  Speaker 3: don't need a different government there. We don't need them
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  Speaker 3: to forswear missiles or not even necessarily nuclear weapons. What
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  Speaker 3: we need from them is to basically be a status
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  Speaker 3: quo power that leaves shipping and oil shipments alone, so
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  Speaker 3: that our prices aren't affected. That's really it, and we
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  Speaker 3: can certainly achieve that. I don't think it's very hard,
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  Speaker 3: but the war has made it a real problem and
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  Speaker 3: harder to achieve, rather than getting us closer.
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  Speaker 2: To a deal.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, so you know, neither of us is in the room,
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  Speaker 1: But your assessment of this situation is a deal gets done.
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  Speaker 1: The Oval Office plan then would be well, win the war,
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  Speaker 1: walk away back to business as usual.
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  Speaker 2: Yes, I think so. I mean, I'm not sure they've
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  Speaker 2: thought about it more than that.
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  Speaker 3: I think that I hope at least that they're starting
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  Speaker 3: to think about how they're going to manage the Israelis,
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  Speaker 3: in particular so that even if the war ends, it
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  Speaker 3: doesn't start again in six months. I mean, of course,
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  Speaker 3: you know, this is arguably phase three of this war
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  Speaker 3: that the Israelis initiated with some strikes on the Iranians
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  Speaker 3: and then their follow up strikes in June, which the
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  Speaker 3: United States joined in a limited way. And now this
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  Speaker 3: is the third and by far the most violent.
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  Speaker 2: Phase.
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  Speaker 3: So I'd like for the United States to get off
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  Speaker 3: this train that the Israelis are driving. So you know,
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  Speaker 3: what comes next has to include rethinking our relationship with Israel,
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  Speaker 3: so at least we're not being dragged into wars that
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  Speaker 3: they prefer to have with our firepower doing most of
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  Speaker 3: the work.
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  Speaker 1: Good talking to you. Thanks for talking us to that
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  Speaker 1: so clearly. Ben Friedman from Defense Priorities, Thank you.
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  Speaker 2: Thanks,