Latest / Toadstool Sports / FRIDAY BEST BETS | NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 & MLB & NHL & NBA | 3/27/26

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FRIDAY BEST BETS | NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 & MLB & NHL & NBA | 3/27/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that. I just
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four, I have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with wookends the slump
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my Bruins hat man.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five. The worst month that
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slump,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: point other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports. It is Friday,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: March twenty seventh. Not a good day on the show
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: yesterday one and two. It started out well. We got
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: the easy under in the first five innings with Anaheim
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Houston full game under. Also cash on that. It was
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: no score at all through the first five and Anaheim
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: won three to nothing, so that was easy. The Cincinnati
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Reds did not get there. That was a nothing, nothing
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: game until I think the seventh inning, and then the
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Red Sox scored one run and it was one nothing
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: into the ninth inning, so I'm thinking, you know, it
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: seemed like it was sort of the right side there.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Man Crchet did pitch really well. He was done after
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: six innings though, and just Cincinnati could not get any
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: runs on the board. And then the Red Sox put
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: up two to pad the lead in the ninth inning,
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: and that was it so Yeah, not great there, but
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: at least as a Red Sox fan, at least that happened.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: And then the Nashville Predators. I'm sure if you guys
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: are on social media, you saw that they put out
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: this pride messaging for no reason. Oh yeah, it's the
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: end of marsh let's just have a pride night. I'm like,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: they're gonna lose this game now, this is so ridiculous,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Like why would they do this? And yeah, of course
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: that is what happened. I think they were losing two
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: to nothing, and then I think they tied the game
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: two to two and then they lost. Anyway, I know
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: the final was four to two, but there was an
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: empty net at the end. It was three to to
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: for a while at the end there. But yeah, Nashville,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: if they had not done that pride thing, I think
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: they probably would have won the game. But now I'm
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: rooting for them to miss the playoffs. Screw them. It's ridiculous.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: This is twenty twenty six, that's Tennessee. Like, who are
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: you appealing to with that? Like, I know you're in
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: a I mean, I guess Nashville. It's still kind of
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: you know, it's a leftist city. Still, but who are
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: you appealing to with that messaging? This is hockey. You're
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: in the south of the United States. I don't fucking
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: get it. I don't get it. It's also more ridiculous
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: that their name is the Predators. Anyway, whatever we're gonna
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: get into today, we're gonna have two more baseball plays.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: You know, baseball, Because I do totals, my volume in
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: baseball winds up being a bit more. But it goes
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: throughout the summer, right when baseball is like the only
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: thing around. So the volume during the summer is still
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: not that high. But during if you want, I don't
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: know what you want to call this the equinox of
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: all the sports here, we got little bit more volume
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: that way. Although basketball is kind of winding down because
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: of college. I'm not gonna have any Sweet sixteen plays, man,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I just don't love any of it well enough. I
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: will have one NBA play and it is pretty disgusting,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you that, But I think we have to
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: do it. Mister Penzy, what's up? Yes, Illinois for the brackets. Yes,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna win very much for you know, these
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: bracket pools. If I happen to win, which we're gonna
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: need Michigan to win. But yeah, I'm worried. I'm actually
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: worried because you know, I mean, the other big favorites
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: are winning, but I know there is this huge gap.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Michigan should win tonight. I mean, I don't care if
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: they cover because I'm not gonna have a play on it.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: So just win the game. Man Survivor is gonna get
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: really interesting because I'm basically forced to pick the toss
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: up game tonight. Oh God, I don't know, Man Survivor
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: once it gets late, like you need to get every
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: single game pretty much right at the end to actually
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: win the Survivor. So I still have Michigan, I still
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: have Duke, and I still have Arizona all available, and
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: I'm not using any of them yet, so because you
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: have to save them pretty much, and I saved Florida
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: but that obviously didn't work out. I still have Illinois
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: available as well, so but I have to get I
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: basically have to get Yukon versus Michigan State correct tonight,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: or I have to take Tennessee and hope that they
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: pull off the upset. Those are the only options because
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: I can't use Michigan yet or Duke. So yeah, I
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know what I'm gonna do here, Charles,
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: what's up? Yeah, Well, the leftist fleeing, they're gonna ruin
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: these other places. Nobody can go anywhere. Man, you just
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: have to like be away from all the cities. I
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: am not sure about that. I know there are a
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: lot of we'll talk about that game. We're gonna talk
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: about college basketball. There are a lot of professional betters
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: that like Alabama in that game. I don't really understand
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: why we're gonna do baseball first, because baseball does have
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: at least one afternoon game on ESPN, and I guess
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: MLB unlimited, So I guess if you have obviously, if
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: you have ESPN Unlimited, whatever, you'll be able to watch
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: this one. Yankees and Giants. Of course, it's that game
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: that we get televised here. I almost put this on
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: my card. I do have an angle that I kind
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: of like in this one. Cam Schlittler is pitching for
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. Of course, neither of these teams played yesterday,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: so the bullpens. You don't have to look at the rest.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I brought up the rest for the bullpens today because
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: there are a couple of games that do involve teams
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: that played yesterday. Once tomorrow starts, I think we get
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the full Major League Baseball schedule tomorrow where every team
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: starts playing, but not yet anyway. Cam Schlittler, the Trader
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: is pitching for the yank He's here from Weymouth, mass
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: From very close to me. He's I mean, he's a
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: pretty good pitcher man. I mean, he had a pretty
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: decent rookie campaign last year in a shortened season for
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: him last year. I think they brought him up towards
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: the end of the season last year. And he has
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: a distinct advantage here because the Giants have never seen
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: him before. And you know I talk about this. When
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: you have a young pitcher who's good, he has an
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: extra advantage when the hitters on the other side have
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: never faced him before because they have to get used
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: to him. So he definitely has an advantage there. We
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: have a pitcher friendly park here, by the way, As
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I mentioned with San Francisco, Robbie Ray is pitching for
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. He was good most of the season last
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: year and he made the All Star Game, but then
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: basically from the All Star Game on where he started
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: pitching significantly worse. And he was another one of those
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: guys where it was like, you know, he had like
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: an okay career and then all of a sudden he
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: was pitching way better, like in his mid thirties. It
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: just didn't make any sense to me. So I don't
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: know how much I trust Ray. His numbers against the
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Yankees are good. In ninety three career at bats, he
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: seld him to a very low one ninety four batting average,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: six forty seven oh ps, thirty to thirteen strike a
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. It's probably too many walks, but six of
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: them around Judge. So Judge has actually bombed him, and
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: he looks it looks like he pitches around Judge. Judge
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: has three on runs off him. But and Judge can't
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: possibly be worse in this game than he was in
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: the last game. You know, if you want hitters props,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I don't really do props, but I recommend hits plus
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: runs plus RBIs for hitters props. Maybe you look for
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Judge to bounce back because he was so bad in
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the first game and he has a good pitching matchup
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: here A Lefty that he hits well, but you gotta
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: avoid the fact that, well, yeah, if you do hits,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Puss runs Pross RBIs at least he can score runs
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: if he walks. That's why I prefer that over total basis.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: So maybe a recommendation there, even though I'm not a
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: props guy, but my opinion in this game would be
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: the under, even though I worry about it a little bit,
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: just because I don't trust Ray that much. And the
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on the over a little bit,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: up to eight eighty eight percent of tickets, ninety seven
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over looks like the
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: public might be a bit on the over. Heere. I
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: mean the public, they basically see the Yankees and they
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: always play the over. So you know, I lean under
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: in this game, though, and the bullpen's a arrested because
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: they didn't play yesterday. I would also lean to the
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Yankees on the side. I think Schlitler is the better pitcher,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: and you know, obviously the Yankees have the better offense.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: The Giants do have the better bullpend at least of
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: last year as any indication, But you know, we have
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: to I think we have to kind of wait and
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: see how good these bullpens really are. It's kind of
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: a guessing game early on with the bullpens. But the
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on the Yankees, and I don't
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: disagree with that, even though I did in the first
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: game and they won. Anyway, eighty one percent of tickets,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of the cash on the Yankees. Again,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I just don't trust him fully. In Schlitzler, I think
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: sets up a bit better in this one because he's
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: never been seen before by the opposing lineup judge. He
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: was zerover five with four strikeouts in that game, I believe,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: but the Yankees still put up seven runs even without
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: him doing anything. As at Toronto, as we get into
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: the night slate here, Luis Severrino is pitching for the A's.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: One thing about the A's is I believe they actually
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: were better on the road last year in a lot
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: of ways because they don't really have a home advantage
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: because they play in a Triple A stadium for the
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: next I think last year through next year, I think
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: they're still playing in the stupid Sacramento stadium and they're
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: not even called the Sacramento A's. They're just the A's.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: It's getting really ridiculous, man, Like, you know, they should
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: just be playing somewhere in Vegas already and be the
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Vegas A's. I don't know what's going on here. Several Reno.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: The interesting thing about him, though, he was a completely
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: different pitcher home and away last year. He was way
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: better on the road than he was at home last year.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: His overall numbers were not good, but home road splits
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: were insane. Last year. He was terrible in that home stadium.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: His ERA was like three runs higher at home last year,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: a six ERA at home, three on the road. So
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: he is on the road here. He was better on
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: the road last year, and he's actually good against the
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays eighty three career at bats thirty three to
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: ten strike at walker razio two zero five average allowed
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: six twenty eight ops. So I don't hate that at all.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: The Blue Jays might take a little bit of a
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: step back offensively this year because they did lose Boba, Schett,
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Vlad Guerrero and Kirk both actually hit Severalino pretty well.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: But aside from those two guys, they do not do
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: well against him. He's going up against Kevin Gossman. Gousseman,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know how you pronounce his names. I like
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Gussman man. Gouss just sounds better, but I don't know.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: I think it's goss Man. You know, he's been around
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: for a while. He had a good season last year
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: for the Blue Jays. However, he does not have good
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: numbers against the A's in fifty career at bats, eleven
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: to five strike out walk ratio not good of the
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Butler has three of those walks, so you can kind
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: of ignore that a little bit. Rooker and McNeil both
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: hit him well. If you're looking for player props, there
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: three forty batting average allowed to the A's and eight
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: forty oh ps. And whenever I talk about these numbers,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: it's against the current lineup for that team. ESPN does
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: a pretty good job keeping it updated till like the
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: active roster that this guy's facing. Obviously, not all those
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: guys will be in the lineup, but you know that
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: the manager is going to put in like most of
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: the guys that have the best numbers against him and stuff,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So it's a pretty good
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: way to look at it. So I actually like the
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: A's in this game. Uh, Toronto's minus one seventy three,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: eighty two percent of the tickets ninety one percent of
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: the cash on Toronto. The A's bullpend is a question, though,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: so I think, you know, if you want to do this,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I think I would go A's first five innings in
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: this one. Probably just focus on the starting pitching matchup
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: and the specific numbers between these two pitchers. I think
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Severino will be pretty under the radar here because everybody
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: knows Gossman. You know, Toronto was in the World Series
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: last year. Everybody knows this. Everybody likes that Toronto has
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: a good offense. The A's offense isn't terrible though, and
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: you know, again, the bullpens really weren't that great on
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: either side, but the A's was so bad that if
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: you want to just take them out of the equation,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: a's run line in the first five innings probably makes sense.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: You can probably get them plus a half run and
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: you're fading the public if you do that. Eighty two
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the Blue Jays. So that's probably the way I would
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: play that game. That one has not made my card,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: but I kind of like it. To be honest, Again,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I think looking at the insane home road splits like
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: that from last year. That's how we identified Soreo as
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: a decent look yesterday, you might be able to say
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: the same thing about several you know here, Uh, Colorado
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: at Miami, this is an ugly, ugly game. Kyle Freeland
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Colorado. I guess he's their their their
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: opening day starter. I don't even know what to say, man.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's not horrible, I guess, but I don't know.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Against Miami, not good, three to zero, two batting average,
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: a lot eight, twenty five ops, sixteen to six strike
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: at walker issue in eighty six at bats. Most of
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: the damage coming from Slater though, who has a ton
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: of at bats against him, most of the walks coming
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: from him as well. Miami's got Sandy al Contra pitching.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: I mentioned him the other day because he's a guy
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: who had Tommy John surgery, maybe twice, I want to say,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: I don't remember, but basically he was never the same
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: pitcher again. But I will say that in the last
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: like three months of last year he actually started pitching
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: better again, which I think is why they hung on
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: to him and he's still here. He was potentially going
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: to be a trade candidate, like he was a candidate
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: for being traded last year. I remember that as well,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: because the Red Sox were mentioned as one of the
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: trade partners for that. I think he might have been
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: on the Red Sox at one point if I remember correctly.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: But he actually did start pitching better at the end
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: of the year, so maybe he will actually be okay
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: this year. He gets a good matchup to start out,
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: because he's facing a bad Rockies lineup here. Forty three
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: at bats career wise against them, thirteen to two, strikeout
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, one sixty three average allowed, three eighty six
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: ops allowed. So all Contra does have pretty good numbers
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: against Colorado. I don't have a strong opinion on this.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, based on what you see there. With those numbers,
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: I think you kind of have to lean to Miami
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna play the side here. They're up to
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: minus win eighty six, seventy six percent of tickets, ninety
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on them. I mean, I
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: guess my recommendation and would be like a run line
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: on the on Miami, I would find like a minus
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: one run line in that case, probably to cut the
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: price down a little bit. It's still probably gonna be
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: about minus one at like minus one thirty or so though,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: if you do do that. But that's probably how I
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: would approach that, other than you know, just completely avoiding
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: the game. If you wanted to go Colorado under their
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: team total, that might be a way to do it too,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: because it's a pretty low total. It's a bit of
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: a risk because you're relying on all contra to actually
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: be good again. But again, he is facing a very
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: weak line up here, so you know, that's not too bad.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Kansas City at Atlanta. I believe these two teams did
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: play yesterday. Wait didn't they Why? Why do I think? Man?
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Why did I think they did? Maybe they didn't. I
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: don't know, because I was looking at the bowl. I
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: was gonna look at the bullpens, and I'm like, yeah,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: for some reason, I thought I talked about Oh yeah,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is not at home yet, because when we
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: talk about Kansas City at home, by the way, their
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: park is going to be less picture friendly now because
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: it was so pitcher friendly. They moved the outfield walls
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: in by like a couple of feet. So I don't
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: know how that's gonna work out. We'll see, but that's
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind with Kansas City games this year.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: This game is at Atlanta. Though Cole Reagan's his pitcher
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: for Kansas City. He is probably their best pitcher. His
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: numbers didn't look that good last year, but that's because
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: he was injured for a lot of the season, and
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: his whip was actually good last year. He is actually
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: pretty good, so I would not really take away much
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: from his era from last year against Atlanta. His numbers
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: are a bit all over the place. Thirty five career
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: at bats is not a huge sample size. Twelve to
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: two strike out walk ratio is really good, but seven
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: fifty four ops is where I kind of have some
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: questions here. He's allowed some extra base hits to these guys.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Two fifty seven batting average ALLOTTA is not that bad though,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: But overall I like Reagan's I think he should do
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: okay here. He's going up against Chris Sale, who seems
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: to be the only healthy Braves start, or at least
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: for now. I mean, he's getting up there in age
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: man and he might not be healthy the whole season.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: I mean I would probably bank on him not being
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: healthy for the whole season. I don't know what's going
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: on with the Braves man. Like I said, I think
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: they must be around some like electrical substation, because their
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: starting pitches are all injured, and it's insane that the
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: old guy is the one who's not injured right now.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: But we're handicapping this game for now. Chris Sale is pitching.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: He's an ace. I mean, we know he's got good
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: numbers in his career against the Royals hitters here ninety
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: four career at bats, so sixty eight of them are
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Salvador Perez, who actually does hit him okay, although he
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: does strike out a lot against him too. But most
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: of these guys are actually not even that familiar with Sale,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: which is interesting. Twenty four to two strikeout walk ratio
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: against them two forty five average a lot five ninety ops.
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: But remember the majority, like of those numbers are just
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Perez against Sale. So but I think what we can
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: take away from it is that Sales should do pretty
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: well generally. This Royals lineup is not good either. Uh
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: this game, for me, it would be under if I
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: was gonna play this game. We have fifty three percent
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on the over ninety nine percent of
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: the catch on the under is probably not accurate, but
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: it looks like you can get under seven and a half.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: But maybe it's juiced a little bit, like minus one
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: twenty on that or something like that. I worry a
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: little bit about it because Chris Sale is still one
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: of those like name pitchers. But I mean, he's got
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: a name for a reason. The under does make sense
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: to me in this one. I think Reagan's to kind
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: of counter that. Reagan's kind of flies under the radar.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: It's two lefties, and a lot of times lineups struggle
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit more against lefties because they don't see
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: them as much. Although we are gonna fade one of
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: the lefties in a minute here, but yeah, under would
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: be the way I would look at this. As far
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: as the side, it's down to minus one thirty seven
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: on Atlanta here, seventy one percent of tickets eighty four
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Atlanta. I would probably lean
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: to the Royals, to be honest in this one, just
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: I think there might be a little bit of value
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: there in fading the name pitcher. And when it looks
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: like it's gonna be a decent like a decently close
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: pitching matchup, you know what I mean. But I don't
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: have a strong opinion on the side there. My preference
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: in that game would be to go under the total.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Anaheim at Houston. These two teams did play yesterday and
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Anaheim won the game three to nothing. So we do
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: have to look at what's going on with the bullpens here.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: Anaheim used four of their relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen's
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: not good, remember, although they did kind of bolster it,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: I guess with Pomerants, but he did pitch yesterday. Houston
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: only used three relievers, but I think it was kind
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: of a situation where they knew they were out of
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: the game, so they did use blue ball blue ball
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: for a lot of pitches there. So I think the
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: bullpens are both, you know, in kind of ordinary shape,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: I would say coming into this one, and of course
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: that was just the first game of the seasons. You
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: can kind of normally handicap these bullpens. I think Houston,
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: based on what we saw last year, Houston should have
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: the better bullpen here against Anaheim. Anaheim is just not good.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: I think Houston has the better offense as well. Anaheim's
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: offense was not impressive last year, and I think Houston
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: has the better US starting pitcher in this game as well,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: And that's where we're gonna go here. Kakuchi is pitching
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: for Anaheim. One thing to remember about him last year,
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: I mean his whip was god awful for one thing,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: one point four to two. So his ERA being in
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: the threes looks pretty decent, but don't be fooled by
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: that because he was putting a ton of guys on base.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: And what's even worse for him is that his home
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: road splits were very home oriented. It's always been this
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: way for him during his career. He had a sub
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: three ERA at home last year, and on the road
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: his ERA was above five, so it was worse than
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: two runs higher on the road. He was bad on
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: the road last year. Man, that's where you want to
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: fade him, and no shocker, we're fading him here. This
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: is one of my best bets. We are taking the
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Astros here in this game. Also kind of a zigzag
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: spot to bounce back after scoring no runs last night
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: and losing. If you wanted to play this by going
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: over Houston's team total, I would also be okay with
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: that because I think they're gonna score some runs with
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Kokuchi plus Anaheim's bullpend. I think it's guaranteed Houston is
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: scoring runs here. But we're doing this with a minus
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: one run line for Houston at minus one seventeen here
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: because I actually like the pitching matchup. And again, like
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: I said, I think Houston actually has the edge in
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: all three phases of this game. Anaheim just sucks and Kikuchi,
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: by the way, against the Astros, his numbers are not
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: particularly good. In fact, they're not good. They have a
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: lot of experience against him. He actually was on the Astros,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: I think briefly, so he is used to pitching in
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: this park. But I don't think it's gonna matter. They've
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: got one hundred and seventy two at bats against him,
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: forty to thirteen strikeout walk ratio, two seventy nine. Batting
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: average is, you know, not extraordinarily high. But the ops
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: is where we really start seeing. Houston beats this guy up.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Eight sixty five ops against him. We got a lot
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: of home runs in here from Alvarez, Meers Paradas. You
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: know Payna has won off of him as well. Uh So, Kakuchi,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I'm looking for him to not do well here. And
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: I think we have a nice advantage here with the
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: newcomer Mike Burrows for the Astros, who had a decent
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: season last year, a bit under the radar for he
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: was on the Pittsburgh Pirates last year. Astro's got him
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: during the off season. I think I think it was, Yeah,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: I think it was during the offseason they got him.
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: He's still a pretty young guy, you know, mid twenties.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: He did okay last year. And the thing that I
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: like here is he's facing a pretty weak offense in
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: the Angels and they've never faced him before. So you know,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: what do I always say when you have a young
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: guy who's a decent pitcher and the opposing lineup, especially
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: if they're not a great lineup, they haven't seen him before,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: a lot of times, the picture has a little bit
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: of an extra edge when that happens. And I think
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: we have another extra edge here because this is gonna
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: be his first start with his new team, and I
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: think that actually pumps a picture up a little bit
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: more when they're making their first start for a new team.
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, he's not used to pitching in the stadium, whatever,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: but I think you get a little bit of extra excitement,
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: like motivation, like he wants to go out and do
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: well right like because the picture. Like, I think they
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: feel like they have to prove themselves a little bit
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: because Okay, these guys spent all this money to acquire me.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: I gotta go out there and earn it, you know
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: what I mean. So I like that, And actually that's
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be the case with two of the pictures that
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be taking today. It's gonna factor into both
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: of my plays. But yes, we're gonna do that. With Houston.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: I think they have the edge all across the board
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: in this game. They're sitting at about minus one fifty
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: two on the money line, which is why I'm recommending
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: a run line here. You can find this on draft DraftKings.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: I'm allowed to say it, right, I don't know, uh,
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent of tickets ninety four percent of the
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: cash on Houston here, So the money is sort of
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: indicating with me here. It looks like they might be
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: a public side too, but again, it's baseball. The public
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily come in and like they don't like hammer
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: these baseball games when there are other sports going on,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: you know, what I mean, So some of those tickets
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: are actually still like professional tickets. We're going with Houston
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: in that one. I had something else I was about
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: to say, and I don't remember what it was now.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, like DK, I think is like the only
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: place that really has those minus one run lines there.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: If you wanted to do a split bet like I
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: did yesterday with the Reds Underdog that you could do
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: that too, and do a minus one and a half
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: run line, split it with the money line, you know,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: and you'd have to put a little bit. I don't
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: know what the split would be exactly. I'd have to
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: do the math, but you could do it that way,
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: and actually you might get a better number than this.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: This is just you know, I don't know. This is
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: for for the sake of ease getting this run line here,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: And I don't think the price is gonna be that
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: much different if you do the splits, but it might
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: be a little bit different. Uh yeah, yeah. You se Kakuchi,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: he I believe he goes around kicking women in the
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: genitals or something. I don't know. He's been in the
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: major leagues for quite a while now, and he's always
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: been a pitcher who's good at home and you want
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: to fade him on the road like that's been his thing.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: Cleveland at Seattle. I was wrong about them having an
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: under game last night. These two teams did play last night.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: Looking at their bullpen usage, Cleveland used four relief pictures yesterday,
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: which you know isn't great. Seattle also used four and
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: actually used them more so, the bullpen usage actually kind
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: of favors Cleveland a little bit here. I think Cleveland
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: does still have a decent bullpend. I think they might
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of an injury situation going on.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: And of course, you remember their closer. I don't know
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: what happened to Class A last year, their closer who
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: basically got like throwing off the team for gambling. I
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: don't know. I don't know where that guy's at now.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: He should, dude, he should still be pitching in the majors, Like,
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: come on, But anyway, we have a pitcher friendly park here.
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: I know I said that last night. I'm less tempted
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: to go with an under in this game, though I
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: liked the pitching matchup in last night's game more than
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: this one. I don't know what we're gonna get in
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: this one man. Gavin Williams is pitching for Cleveland. He
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: had a pretty good season last year. He started pitching
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: well down the stretch. I believe he was the one
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: who had that. Didn't you have like a complete game
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: shutout or something like one hit or something like that.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: I think he had won really good performance towards the
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: end of the year last year against Seattle. He does
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: have good numbers in forty at bats one seventy five average,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: allowed five, fourteen oh ps, eight to two strike a
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, so he's been good against Seattle, so I
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: like how he sets up in this one. George Kirby
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Seattle. Kirby, I mean, he's got decent numbers.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: He was injured for a bit last year's era wound
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: up not being that good last year, but his whip
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: was still pretty good. The thing about Kirby, though, is
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: he seems very He seems kind of matchup dependent, and
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: he has certain games where he gets absolutely bombed and
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: in other games he does well, so you have to
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: kind of try to gauge what's gonna happen with him.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: I believe he does pitch better at home, which basically
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: all of Seattle's pitchers do because they're better at home.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: Just it's a better pitching environment. I should say it's
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park. I don't know where where's Brian
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: wu At? Dude? Is he hurt because he hasn't pitched yet.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: Wu is like their best starter. I don't even know
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: where he's at. He's actually I guess he's third in
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: the rotation. I think he's their best starter. Wu I
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: guess he's gonna pitch tomorrow. I don't know. Man very weird,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: but Kirby is pitching here. His numbers against Cleveland are
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: pretty bad. In sixty two at bats eleven to two
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: strike a walker issues, although it's not that many strikeouts,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: but three to zero six batting average allowed eight thirty eight.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Oh ps, that's not good. Kwan Manzarto and Jose Ramirez,
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: they basically all pretty much light this guy up. So
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: that's not good. Uh So, based on that, I would
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: have to kind of be leaning towards Cleveland. In this
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: one eighty one percent tickets, ninety five percent of the
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: cash on Seattle throw up to minus one sixty three.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: It looks like they might be a little bit of
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: a public side. You can get a decent underdog price
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: with Cleveland here, and again, I would probably leave the
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: bullpens in in that one because their bullpen usage wasn't
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: as bad. Seattle does have a good bullpen, that's for sure.
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: You could argue that the better bullpend here, but I
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: think it's close enough that I think like a full game,
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: you know, like run line, like a mix between run
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: line and money line would be the way to do
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: this with Cleveland. It's not gonna make my card or anything,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: but that's the way I would lean in that game yesterday.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Cleveland did win yesterday though, so you know, I guess
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: you could argue that Seattle will kind of zigzag it,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: but I don't know. Baseball is a very matchup dependent
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: sport though. All right, next up is gonna be the
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: other play. I'm giving out two baseball plays, and you
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: know me, this one is going to be a total.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go under in Tiger's padres Detroit, San Diego.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: We got a pitcher friendly park here, so that should
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: help as well. You can find that hook on the
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: seven and a half there. I saw it at minus
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: one fifteen, though, but I would do it to get
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: the hook. I mean with baseball like these these hook
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: the hook means a little bit more in baseball, right, Like,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: if we were able to find the hook the other
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: day at a decent price, it would have definitely been
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: worth it because it would have won on the under
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: onund that Yankee Giants game the other day. We're doing
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: it here though. I actually like the starting pitching matchup here,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: and I think it's a little bit more of an
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: under the radar, like we don't have these like name
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: pitchers here where everybody's like, oh yeah, this guy's an ace,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. I like how that sets
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: up here as well. Both offenses are decent, but I
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: think the pitching can outperform the offense in this one.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: And both bullpens were pretty decent last year. In fact,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: San Diego's was good. Detroit hardly used any of their
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: bullpen last night. I think it was kind of a
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: blowout result last night. San Diego used a lot of
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: their pitchers, but well they use four of them, but
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: they kind of used more of their long relief type
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: of guys. So I'm okay with having the bullpens still
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: in this equation here. Last night's game was where was
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: the final. What was the final in last night's game?
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: Why don't I see it? That was last night? Right? Yeah?
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: It was eight to two Detroit. Some you know, Oh
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: my god. If Schooball pitching against Pavetta and ten runs
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: were scored, who's gonna want to go under here? Right?
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Although Schooble I think pitched pretty well
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: last night, as he usually does. Paveta probably not so
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: much on it. I didn't look at what happened in
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: that game. But the fact that ten runs got scored,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe that even is giving us a little
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: bit of value here on this one, because people are
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: gonna think, well, if ten runs were scored last night
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: in this game, the you know these pits that aren't
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: as good as the pitchers from last night, how is
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: this one gonna stay under? You know what I mean?
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: I think it will. We got from Bervaldez pitching for
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: the Tigers here, formerly of the Astros. He's gotta just
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: keep his head in order, man, That's the thing. Like
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: he was a guy that would just go on like
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: full tilt, like he'd allowed like a bunch of hits
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: in a start, and you just go completely off the rails.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: He's a head case, so you gotta avoid him having
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: one of those types of situations. But I think we
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: can because again, like I said with Borrows, this is
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: gonna be his first game pitching with his new team.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. So I think you're gonna get an
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: effort out of him. You're gonna get get a good
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: performance out of him in this one. And when he's good,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: he's pretty good, So hopefully that'll happen here. He's pitching
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: in a picture friendly environment as well, and I'm gonna
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: show you his matchup numbers in a minute. By the way,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: I completely fucked it up where I was talking about
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: Franklin Hermon or whatever the hell his name is for Houston.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I apologize, I'm you know, I'm gonna I'm gonna get
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: sued for def or whatever because the pine tar guy
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: was actually Ronel Blanco on the Astros. I apologize. He
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: was the guy that actually was putting pine tar in
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: his hands. So my mistake there. Valdez, but again, yeah, yeah, Valdez.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: His thing is just that he's out of his mind.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: Hopefully that won't be the case here and against San
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Diego he has one hundred and seventeen at batsworth against them,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: and they haven't really hit him well at all. Thirty
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: three to eleven strike out walk ratio. Yeah, I know Valdez,
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: he does have a little bit of a walk issue,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: but these hitters have not hit him well to twenty
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: two average against him five ninety seven OPS is very low,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: so he's kept their like power very very limited against him.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: So I like that. I think Valdez should be in
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: line for a good start here. Michael King is pitching
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: for San Diego. I think you could make the argument
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: he's actually their best pitcher, even though I know what
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: about Nick Pavetta, Yeah, I know Pavetta pitches well in
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: this stadium. Whatever. King is definitely good though, and against Detroit,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: they don't have a lot of experience against them. They
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: only have fifteen at bats off him, They have no
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: extra base hits against him, six strikeouts, no walks against him,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: a two hundred average and four hundred OPS. It's a
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: limited sample size, but I think that's also good because
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: it means that Detroit's offense is just not familiar with
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: them either. Really, so I like how King sets up
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: in this game as well. So this game is an
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: under for us here we got sixty nine percent of
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: tickets and only sixty one percent of the cash on
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: the over here. So it does look like the money
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: is basically indicating on the under here. Uh And for
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: what it's worth, the money's indicating on San Diego as well.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: They're minus one twenty two now up for minus one thirteen.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Fifty three percent of the tickets are on Detroit, seventy
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: six percent of the money on the padres. So do
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: with that information what you want to, I guess, but
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: we're going under for the play here in that one,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: all right, Yeah, I don't think I can cover that one.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: The hook brings you back. I saw Blues Traveler twice,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: like a couple of years ago. They're still good live
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: man John Popper, very very good with the harmonica. I
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: don't know if I could do that on you because
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: I can't do the harmonica stuff, so I don't know.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: They put on a good show though. I mean, I'm
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: not really a jam band guy, but Blues Traveler puts
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: on a good show. Fifty boost a day. Well, all right,
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: so you can knock that wait Houston money line, money
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: line or run line wow, if you can get the
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: money Yeah, if you can get the money line on
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Houston at that, yeah, do it obviously. Yeah, yesterday, I'm
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: pretty surprised that yesterday was an over game like that,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: even with the Brewers. Yeah, I mean, I know, we
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: know their offense is pretty solid, but like and you know,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: the White Sox aren't good, but still I thought Shane
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: Smith would keep them in line a little bit there.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty surprised. I don't know, but if yesterday was
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: so over heavy, I think today might be under heavy.
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: And also, again a lot of these teams haven't even
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: played yet, but it's also early in the season. Early
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: season unders usually like unders usually are the way to
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: look early in the season, pitchers usually have the edge
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: early on a little bit. And then the last game
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: on MLB Network. By the way, a couple of these
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: games are on MLB Network, a couple are on Apple TV,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: and then the restaurant MLBtv, but of course you can
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: find streams anyway. Arizona at the Dodgers is the last game.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Once again, the Dodgers is gonna be a massive favorite here.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: The Dodgers won easily last night, which I was correct.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: By the way, My approach with that game was my
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: recommendation was Dodgers over their team total. That would have
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: been a winner. If people did that one last night.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: You know, I wouldn't be opposed to doing it again
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: in this game because we have our old friend here,
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: Ryan Nelson pitching for the Timbacks. You know, I'm not
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: a fan. I don't know what. I don't know what
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: this was last year. I don't know how his numbers
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: were what they were last year. I don't buy it whatsoever.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: I think he sucks. I don't get it. And he's
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: on the road here against the Dodgers. His numbers are
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: actually good against the Dodgers, and it doesn't make any sense.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: In ninety one at bats, ten strike at walk ratio
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: is not good, though, but two twenty two batting average allowed,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: six thirty five ops allowed, He's actually done well against
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. But I just don't get it. I still
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: don't buy it. And then Emitt she And is pitching
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: for the Dodgers. He's pretty good man like I Actually
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: I like him. He's a young dude. I'm not a
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: fan of the Dodgers, but I do like this guy,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: even though he's from New York. Better than playing for
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. Though he had a good season last year,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: kind of a shortened season. I think he was either
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: a rookie or like, I don't know, he didn't have
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: that many major league years under his belt yet he
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: still doesn't. But what that means is the Diamondbacks haven't
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: seen that much of him. They only have ten at
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: bats against him, five to two strike a walk ratio
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: is not great, but one hundred average allowed. They only
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: have one hit off him. It is a home run
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: from Corbyn Carroll, but still six point fifty ops allowed.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: You know, it's a very small sample size, but I
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: think what we could say is that Shean is pretty
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: unfamiliar to Arizona, so they might struggle against him a
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: little bit more. I think the Dodgers should win this game.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously their minus two thirty two on the
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: money line. This one is more difficult to actually want
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: to like recommend a play on, because again, Nelson does
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: have good numbers against the Dodgers. So I don't know.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: Even though you know, I was kind of thinking Dodgers
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: over their team, don't again makes sense. Maybe it doesn't
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: make as much sense this time. I don't know, man,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, Dodgers run line. I guess you could make
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: the argument that I would not want to play the
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: Diamondbacks in this one though, I mean, I guess d
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: Backs under their team totals of possibility. But that would
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: worry me as well because the Dodgers bullpen's not good.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: We didn't look at the bullpen usage. By the way,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Dodgers only used three relief pitchers last night, so their
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: bullpen is pretty intact coming into this one. And then Diamondbacks,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, their bullpen is is probably even worse than
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. Anyway, they used four relief pitchers yesterday. So yeah,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers bullpen is definitely at a disadvantage for multiple reasons. There,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: you know it. Probably I guess my recommendation on that
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: would be Dodgers' run line. All right, let's go to
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: a Sweet sixteen college basketball here. First game up. We
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: have the same kind of schedules last night pretty much.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: Games are a little bit staggered with kind of two
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: earlier games, two later games both games. Like, we have
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: only two regions being played here. The the other two
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: regions were last night, so the East regionals are being
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: played today, which is in Washington, d C. The first
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: one up is Saint John's against Duke. I do think
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: Duke is gonna have a pretty big crowd here. I
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: mean Saint John's may travel as well here, but I
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: think it's a pretty good location for Duke. I mean,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: we saw Duke's fans show up in d C for
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: that game against Michigan or earlier this year. I think
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Duke will have the crowd at here, and they have
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: a huge fan base, so that helps Duke. Duke. We
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: know they still have injury issues. Foster is still not
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: going to be there. I don't know if Nigungba is
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: that he pronounce his name. I have no idea if
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: he's playing or not. Duke is still favored in this game,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: and you know they deserve to be to me, Saint John's,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: I mean I thought they were gonna be a bit
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: of a public underdog here because I did see a
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: lot of brackets putting Saint John's like in the Final
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: four and stuff like that. Sixty percent of tickets, eighty
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash are on Saint John's. Duke
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: is a six and a half point favorite right now.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: I kind of like Duke in this one, though, you know,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: I think Duke's being a little bit maybe short change
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: because of their injuries. There's still a very solid team.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: And Saint John's is very good deppense, you know, there's
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: no denying that. But Saint John's wants to go up
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: and down the court, and what they do is they
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: turn you over and they try to score and transition,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: and I'm not sure that Duke is gonna really allow
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: that to happen here. Duke is gonna try to slow
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: the game way down, which I think they will actually
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: succeed in doing. I mean, usually the better team can
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: control the pace. It's also easier as a slow down
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: team to control the pace, So I think that might
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: happen and throw Saint John's out of their element a
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: little bit. So I don't love the matchup for Saint
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: John's here. Also, Duke is way better on offense than
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Saint John's is Saint John's They're not a good shooting team.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: They can't score that well and if they fall behind,
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: they're not a good three point shooting team either. So yeah,
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't get the the Ain't John's
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: love here? Really? I would also not disagree with an
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: under and by the way, I was correct about the
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: under with Illinois and Houston yesterday. The under makes sense
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: to me in this game as well. The money is
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under here. It did drop a
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: little bit from one and a half. Again, you have
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: two good deepfenses, and Saint John's does struggle on offense
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: for prolonged periods of time sometimes so and Duke slowing
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: the game down also helps with that, so an under
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: might be worth considering in that game as well. Alabama
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: and Michigan in the Midwest region in Chicago is the
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: next one up. Michigan is likely to have a massive
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: fan base there, I would have to imagine, which is
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: why they chose the Midwest. There's a lot of love
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: for Alabama from professional betters though, But you know, Michigan
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: looks like they have the slight money edge, even though
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: they initially dropped from ten to nine. Here fifty tickets
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of the cash on Michigan right now.
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: I I like Michigan in the game. You know, I
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: don't think it's a good matchup for Alabama. I mean,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: I don't like Alabama for one thing, but you know,
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Alabama just the way that they play, They play super fast,
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: which isn't really good in a tournament setting necessarily, though
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: I think it's worse when you're playing on the quick
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: turnaround time in the next game, they you know, they're
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: not very good on defense at all. Uh. The one
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: other problem with with this matchup for them is that
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: Michigan also goes fast, So Alabama going fast is not
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: gonna you know, it's not gonna give them an advantage
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: here because Michigan also does that. It's just that Michigan
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: plays defense and Alabama doesn't, so like Michigan, I mean,
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: they have clear advantages in this game, which of course
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: is why they're favored. Though the total in this game
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: is insane, up to one seventy three, the money looks
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: like it's not really indicating on the over at this point,
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: though it looks like there's some buyback towards the under.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: I don't think I would want to be sitting on
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: an on during this game though. The total is that
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: high for a reason. But the total being that high
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: also means that you can more easily cover as a favorite,
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: you know, like Michigan. Like you know, it makes it
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: easier for a favorite to cover a number like that
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: when it's gonna be a high scoring game. Michigan. I mean, yeah,
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: they haven't exactly been tested yet, but Saint Louis is
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: a very good offense, and Michigan held them like pretty
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: much completely in check, so they pretty they kind of
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: just faced a team that's similar to Alabama in a
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: way because Saint Louis they also go fast and they
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: have a really good offense. Alabama takes more three. Well,
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: both teams take threes too, though, so I don't know,
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: but Alabama is heavily reliant on the three. But that's
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: I think the other thing where that is actually not
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: bad for Michigan either, because Michigan is like a top
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: twenty three point defense as well. Michigan plays, they defend
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: the perimeter well. I think they're actually the best three
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: point defense remaining out of all the teams left in
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: the tournament, I believe, So that's a good thing for
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: Michigan as well. So matchup wise, I don't really get
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: it for Alabama here. I don't see it. And I
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: think Alabama looks too good because they trounced Texas Tech
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: like that, and yes, Texas Tech is a better opponent
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: than Saint Louis, but you know j T. Topmin was injured.
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: That was just a weird game where Texas Tech they
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: just couldn't make any shots in that game. I don't
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: know what that was. Like. It was a very very
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: weird outlier of a performance, man, which that's not gonna
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: happen again. Texas Tech shot thirty four percent from the field,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: sixteen percent from three, and Alabama hit almost half of
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: their threes. There's gonna be some regression here, man. So
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: I actually do like Michigan in this game. Like, I
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: don't think Alabama's gonna shoot forty five percent from three
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: point range again against a team that holds their opponents
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: to thirty percent from three point range on the season.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: And I don't see Michigan having this horrendous as shooting
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: effort here, you know what I mean. Uh, Michigan also
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: can kind of dominate on the interior as well. They
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: can kind of do everything well. So yeah, I don't
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: like it for Alabama. I don't I like Michigan here.
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: There's also a big gap between these upper echelon teams
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: and everybody else in Michigan is now number one in
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: the Ken Bomb rankings after what they've done in the
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: tournament so far, or I guess after what Duke has
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: not done. So yeah, I would I like Michigan in
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: the game. I would lean to Michigan in this one.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: Not that strong of an opinion, though they better do
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: it because they're my champion. They better at least win.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: By the way, Saint John's is a bit more battle
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: test that I will say. I forgot to mention that
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: against Duke here. Saint John's had a big lead against
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: Kansas in that game, and I know Saint John's went
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: on a huge drought and let Kansas get back in
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: the game, which is not necessarily good for Saint John's,
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: but that final score was not indicative of what that
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: game was. Saint John's was pretty much running away with
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: that game the whole time, so that that's somebody to
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: keep in mind. Though. Duke was pretty impressive against a
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: good TCU team though, and that was a winner I
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: gave out on the show with Duke against CCU, so
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: you know, people might overlook that win against CCU, but
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: that was a good win for Duke. TCU was quite
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: good down the stretch at TCU has shown the ability
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: to play really close against some of the best teams
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: in the country. So on, no, Cole hates Alabama. Cole
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: is an Auburn fan, I believe. I don't think so,
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: I do not think. I do not think Alabama is
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. I also prefer May over Oates as
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: a coach. And also remember Alabama is without Holloway because
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: he's kicked off the team because of pot and jail.
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: What else is new for Alabama? Alabama has gotten knocked
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: out in this round. What was it two three years
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: back when they had the you know, the shooting that
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: happened and whatever. Alabama still had Miller on their team
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: though Miles was kicked off the team. But you remember
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: that year Alabama was the number one overall team in
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: the country. They lost in this exact round of the tournament.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: So uh, And things kind of come full circle here
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: because I remember that night I was at a Dave
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: Smith show. Guess where I'm gonna be tonight and it's
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: in the same venue that that was. I'm gonna be
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: in a Dave Smith show tonight in the same venue, Yeah,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: same night. Like how crazy is that? Yeah? So I
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: don't know that that is I didn't think about that.
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: That is weird to me. So I think that was
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: three years ago. You can whatever whichever year Alabama lost
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: to San Diego State. Yeah, I'm gonna be in the
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: same place that I was during that game tonight for
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: the during this game. So yeah, yes, thank you. What
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: do you mean whoever controls it? Well, what do you mean?
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Like Alabama and Michigan both are gonna go fast, so
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: like no team is really going to control it when
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: both teams are just like, Okay, we're going fast here.
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: It's just that Michigan is the better team. Yes, I'm
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: the reason why Dave Smith is famous. I am the
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: one that got him to come on Tower Gang. The
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: first time he came on, I asked him to come
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: on at a pork Fest the first It was the
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: first time I actually met Dave at pork Fest twenty
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: twenty one. Dave was aware of Tower Gang already at
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: that point, and he said that he liked what we
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: were doing. And I was like, I was like, Dave,
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: you want to come on the show, And he said yeah.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: I was like all right, hell yeah, So we got
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: him on, like, I don't know, a couple of weeks later,
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: probably maybe a couple of months, I don't know. All right,
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: the late games here back in the East regionals in DC,
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Michigan State and Yukon. Yukon probably has an advantage here
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: with the location. Man, they have a big fan base too.
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: Michigan State also does, but I think there's gonna be
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: a bigger Yukon fan base at this one. I have
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: Michigan State winning this game in my bracket, and as
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: I said, I need to pick this game right in
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: Survivor because I don't want to use Duke or Michigan yet.
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: So for Survivor, I basically have to either pick the
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: winner of this game correctly, or I have to take Tennessee.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: I already used Iowa State, but I like Tennessee in
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: that game, which we'll talk about in a minute, So
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: you know, I could take Tennessee and Survivor and be
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: really insane about it. I don't know if I really
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: want to do that though, so we'll see. But otherwise,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: I have to pick the winner of this game. Now.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: I have Michigan State winning this game in my bracket.
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: I kind of like Michigan State in this game. I
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: think Michigan State beating Louisville is more impressive than Yukon
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: beating Ucla. And I know I said Ucla played well
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: down the stretch, but Ucla, I mean, both teams are injured.
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: Though Louisville didn't have mckel brown, Ucla I think was
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: playing with some injuries going on there too, illnesses, whatever.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: So I don't even know which one of those wins
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: is actually more impressive. Ken Baumer Michigan State as the
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: slightly better team here, and the thing is these teams
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: are similar. They both play slow, although Connecticut plays even slower.
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: Both teams are better on defense than offense. The thing
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: is Michigan State is better on offense than Yukon is,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: and the defenses are actually pretty close to one another.
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: So I don't really get why Yukon is the favorite
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: here and there is money coming in on them, sixty
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on Yukon, fifty six percent
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on Michigan State. I don't get it, man,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: I expected Yukon to be public here. Yukon seemed to
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: be a pretty popular bracket pick like in this region
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: for people that didn't want to take Duke. It seemed
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: like Yukon was the next most picked team in this region.
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: Because they're fucking Yukon. You know what I mean. You know,
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: they're they won two championships not too long ago. They
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: got Dan Hurley. But I mean we are talking about
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: tom Izzo in March thoughthough that is kind of overstated.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: But yes, Michigan State does tend to do well in
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: the tournament. They battle test themselves during the during the
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: regular season. Is a really good coach. Both coaches here
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: and know what they're doing. Obviously, as far as Saint
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: John's a duke by the way, I think probably Saint John's,
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: you'd probably give them the coaching edge, to be honest
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: with Patino over shy Or, But I don't know, we
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: just still haven't seen enough of shy Or. I don't know. Anyway,
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: Yukon is getting the money in this one. But I
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: don't really agree with that. I know, I set up
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: my bracket a certain way, and a lot of times
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: I will like look at the market and just be like,
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: you know what, I'm gonna disagree, Like, you know, based
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: on the situation, I might disagree with what I took
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: in my bracket, But in this case, I don't really
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: see that much of a reason to disagree with it.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: I kind of like Michigan State, but I'm really worried
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: about doing it a survivor, you know what I mean.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I definitely have concerns about that market. Reid
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: is definitely saying Connecticut there. Uh yeah, I don't know.
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I much else to say about that,
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: like that is the game that I have the least
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: read on really, which I don't love it all. And
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: then Tennessee and Iowa State playing in Chicago in the
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: Midwest region here, Tennessee as a huge fan base. Man,
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: probably they will their fan base will show up in
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: this one Iowa state, you know. I mean, they're not
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: that far away either, so probably they will be well
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: represented as well. But I know in Boston their representation
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: was significantly lower than Illinois was when I was there
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: for the regionals a couple of years ago, so I
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: could tell you that. So I do think Tennessee might
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: actually have more fans there just because they have a
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: bigger fan base. We'll see though. Also remember it's really
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: weird because there were a lot of Chicago people in
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: Tennessee in like the Nashville era or theoughre know, Tennessee
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: is not in Nashville, but you know, Yeah, I don't know.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that is gonna have anything to
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: do with like if a lot of those Chicago people
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: just didn't really have a school and then maybe they
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: start rooting for Tennessee. I don't know. I don't know,
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: but I think Tennessee will have more fans than Iowa
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: State will at this game. Don't know how much that's
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: really gonna matter. I do kind of like Tennessee. And
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: you remember when I set up my bracket, I said
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: that there was a like putting them in the Elite eight,
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: you know, I said there was a chance that it
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: could happen. Tennessee is coming up a good win over Virginia.
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: Iowa State, you know, is a little bit less proven,
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: I would say at this point because they beat Kentucky,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: which looks good because it was a name Kentucky team.
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: But you know, Kentucky, they're not very well coached. They're
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: not exactly what, you know, what people expect out of
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: them every year. I always state, we have to figure
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: out what's going on with the Jefferson injury, because I
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: believe he did not play in the Kentucky game. He
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: sprained his ankle against Tennessee, State didn't play against Kentucky.
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: And you know I always talk about injured player theory
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: and I actually used Iowa State and survivor in that game.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: Maybe unfortunately, I don't know, but they got the win.
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: They're pretty easily. It was the injured player theory spots.
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: So you know, I always talk about that the team
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: will step up their game to account for that injured player.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: But now they're gonna either be in the second game
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: without him, where a lot of times the team will
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: take a step back, or he's gonna come back and
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: try to play on his sprained ankle. So then it
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: might be the So that was the injured player theory
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: in that game against Kentucky. This might be the reverse
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: injured player theory. If he comes back, you know, they
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: might take their foot off the gas a little bit,
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: even though I know this is a sweet sixteen game,
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: but you know what I mean, like it might mess
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: them up a little bit. And Tennessee is you know,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: they're a strong team. They're better than people think they are.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: In Iowa State's laying four points here, it's a low
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: total at about one point forty. I know I didn't
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: talk about the total in Michigan State and Yukon. The
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: money is heavily coming in on the under in Michigan
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: State and Yukon. By the way, if you like the under,
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: you've already missed out though, because it's already dropped five points.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: But I don't disagree with that move. I like slow
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: paced teams. Undermakes sense. There Probably an undermakes sense in
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: this game too. The money looks like it's somewhat indicating
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: on the under this one. It hasn't moved off the
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: one forty. But both teams are pretty good on deep
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, both teams are definitely good on depfense. Both
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: teams play a bit slow, so especially Tennessee. So yeah,
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: and under doesn't make sense to me in this one.
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: Iowa State very very good on deepfense. They're actually better
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: on both sides of the ball than Tennessee, which gives
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: me a little bit of hesitation here, But I actually
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: lean to Tennessee plus the points. I think people are
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: gonna be thrown off by Tennessee. I mean, they're the
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: only team in ken Bum's top eighteen with a double
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: digit loss total on their record, and yet ken ken
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: Bum has the fourteenth in the country, Like that's how
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: underrated they are. Luck index wise, Tennessee is one of
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: the unluckiest teams left in the country. I always stayed
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit unlucky too, but Tennessee has the luck
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: index advantage here in Michigan State, by the way, does
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: over Yukon ken bum as Yukon being a lucky team,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: Michigan State being kind of middle of the pack there,
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: just you know, for yeah, just to mention those things.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: I do like Tennessee in this game, though, I think
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: the injury thing is gonna come into play here. I
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: think Tennessee could keep this game close, if not win
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: it outright. I would not be shocked if they won
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: the game outright. I would take the four points with
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: Tennessee here, and I'm considering making them my survive for play.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: You know, I don't. I don't know what I want
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: to do yet, but we'll see. I used Purdue last night,
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: by the way, So all right, and it's shaping up
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: pretty decently, by the way, because we have Illinois as
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: six and a half way favorite against Iowa tomorrow, and
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: then Arizona is a six point favorite against Purdue. And
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: by the way, the college basketball Crown is starting coming
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: up soon next week, so that's something something we're gonna
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: talk about as well in the NIT final four coming
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: up as well. All Right, we're gonna go to hockey
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: next to only two games on the board here, I'm
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: gonna do what I usually do and take a quick break.
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back and then we'll talk about hockey
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: and h NBA. There's like probably about ten NBA games,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: and I do have an NBA play. I'm not gonna
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: play either hockey game, but NBA I will have a play,
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: so I'll be back in a second. Alright, alright, NHL
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: here two games here, Detroit at Buffalo and NHL Network Detroit.
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: I would say they must have more motivation here because
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: they're still battling for like a playoff spot, whereas Buffalo
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: I think is like definitely gonna be in. Buffalo is
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: winning the division right now. Detroit coming into this off
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: with two losses, they've had a couple of days off.
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see motivation out of them here
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: in this one. Buffalo is return home or no, they
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: already return home from roads, right, my mistake, that's right,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: because they lost to the Bruins in a return home
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: spot where they were returning from the Pacific Coast, so
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: the Bruins got to catch them at a good time.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: Second game back home. A lot of times the team
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: will bounce back though, so it's kind of a positive
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: spot for both teams in my opinion. I don't have
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: a real strong opinion on this, but the money's all
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: coming in a Buffalo, and I just don't really see it.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: Buffalo minus one fifty right now, fifty six percent of
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on Detroit, eighty eight percent of the
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: cash on Buffalo. I don't get it. You would think
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: the Buffalo would be the public side right now because
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: the record is way better. But again, motivational, you know,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: motivation towards the end of the season. You're getting Detroit
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: as an underdog here and they're fighting to make the playoffs.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: So I think I would lean to Detroit in that one,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: and it would be like, you know, a split puck line,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: money line situation. But I'm not recommending doing it, of course.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: I mean this is just my opinion on the game.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: And then Chicago at the Rangers, who are eliminated from
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: the playoffs. Oh my god, Rangers also terrible at home.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: Chicago's coming up an ugly loss to Philadelphia five to one,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: but that was yesterday, so they are playing a back
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: to back. They're actually playing a third game in four
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: days and a fourth game in six days, all unduring cities,
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: and it's actually a what is this is a sixth
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: game in nine days, I believe is what this is.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: That's not good either. Chicago not well rested coming into
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: this one. The Rangers. We don't know what we're gonna
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: get out of them now that I'm pretty sure they're
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: actually eliminated, So I don't know what we're gonna get
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: out of them here. They've lost a bunch of games
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: in a row. They're awful at home. I mean, they're
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: a little bit more well rested here. I guess are
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: they gonna show up for this? I don't even know, man,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: I really don't. They're actually playing a six game in
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: nine days as well, believe it or not. But most
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: of their games are at home, so that's like a
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: little bit better. But yeah, I have no good read
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: on this game at all. The money is slightly coming
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: in on the Rangers. They're up to minus one seventy
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: five eighty three percent of tickets ninety seven percent of
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. I would not want to lay
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: a price like that with the Rangers. I really wouldn't,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: especially not at home. But I have I have to
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: stay away from this game. I don't even have an
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: opinion on it. Well, actually, over over might be a
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: way to look here, because again, when you have two
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: teams that are pretty much dead, that's kind of the
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: way you want to look in these games towards the
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: end of the season because these teams are going nowhere,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: so the defense can be a bit less intense, you
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. So it over kind of makes sense.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: You know, the line has gone up a little bit
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: into the sixth range, all right, And then we have NBA.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: Uh the actual play that I have in the NBA.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: Oh man, Yeah, you're gonna love this one. I think
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: we have ten NBA games here, Clippers at Pacers. The
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: Clippers coming off a win over Toronto. They've won three
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: games in a row. The Clippers are fighting for playoffs
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: right now. I'm pretty sure I think they're in like
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: one of the playing spots right now if I remember correctly,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: so they might still have some motivation here. You know,
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much attention they're really gonna pay
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: to with Indiana. Though Indiana is coming off kind of
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: a close call against the Lakers. It wasn't really that
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: close though they lost by seven. I think Indiana kind
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: of crawled back into the game when it was too late,
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: but they made it a little bit closer at the end.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's gonna put them in a
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: hangover spot or not. Here. Pacers don't have any motivation here.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: But the problem with the motivation where Yeah, the Clippers
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: are gonna have more motivation here, but they're laying a
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: price on the road, and you know teams that are
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: in that position usually they're laying too many points. You know,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: you're being charged a premium for it. They're eight and
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: a half here, down from nine and a half, seventy
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: eight percent of tickets, only seventy five percent of the
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: cash on the Clippers. So the market read is saying,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: take the points of the Pacers. I mean, I could
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: see the argument for it. I don't love it at
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: all though, you know that's like a complete stay away,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: but that's what the market is saying. Atlanta is at
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: the Boston Celtics. Here, my Celtics who are down from
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: seven and a half to five year, which I think
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: means the Celtics must have some injuries here. I think
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: that's why the line dropped. They're the public side eighty
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: five percent of tickets eighty nine percent of the cash
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: on the Celtics. Both teams are not in good spots here, though.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: Atlanta just beat Detroit in overtime, which is a big
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: win for Atlanta. Now, of course they're gonna show up
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: for a game against the Celtics too. But prior to
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: that game against Detroit, which I said, I actually leaned
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: to Atlanta in that game, Atlanta had won a ton
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: of games recently. But they beat up. They beat up
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: on nobody's Like they beat Brooklyn twice, Washington twice, Milwaukee twice,
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: Dallas twice. I mean, these teams are bad. Milwaukee twice, Philadelphia, Memphis,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: Golden State. You know, that's okay, but they're really injured.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: To Orlando, I mean, that's okay, but they're dealing with
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: injuries as well. And then they beat Detroit was like
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: the only legitimate win they had during that entire stretch.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: So you know, obviously I'm not sold on Atlanta here,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: Like they could definitely be a first round playoff exit here,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: because they're probably gonna be in the top six in
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, and I think they're probably gonna get bounced
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: right away. There's the chance they wind up playing the
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: Celtics in the first round. Celtics are coming up a
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: big win themselves though against Oklahoma City, but they are
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: staying at home. You know, I believe that there is
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: an injury going on here, because again, the Celtics would
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: have been closer to seven and a half without that.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: It looks like Brown and White are kind of the
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: big ones here. They're both game time decisions. Don't know
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: if they're playing or not, so that's one thing to
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: look at here. I don't have a good opinion on
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: the game, man. I hope the Celtics win because they're
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: my team, and you know, they're battling the Knicks right
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: now for the two seed. Don't know if it's really
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: gonna matter though. The difference between the two and the
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: three probably isn't gonna matter that much, so you know,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: I kind of lean to the Celtics still though, just
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: because I think the Hawks are a bit like their
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: their win streak. As I just showed you their recent
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: win streak is fraudulent, even though they did just beat Detroit.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: You know, Detroit is without Kate Cunningham, by the way,
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: as you know, so the Hawks haven't beaten like a
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: complete team that's actually good in this entire run. But
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: the Celtics might not be complete tonight, so that's kind
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: of the problem. I don't know. I don't know what
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: to do with that game, other than obviously not play it.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: Miami at Cleveland is on NBA TV. There are three
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: NBA TV games here, two kind of overlapping. This game
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: is one of the better ones. Miami just beat Cleveland
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: at Cleveland, so they're playing a They're playing two games
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: in a row at Cleveland here, so the zigzag might
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: be in effect here. Now. Cleveland was only a two
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: and a half way favorite in that game. They do
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: have some injuries. I know Jared Allen is out for
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: like a month, and it looks like he might come
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: back tonight, and that might I don't know if even
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: that explains why the line has changed this much, because
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: I think their best players pretty much did play in
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: this last game. Miami won the game outright, and Cleveland
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: was a two and a half boy favorite. I'm pretty
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: sure that Cleveland had like Mitchell in there, they had
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: hardened in there. I'm pretty sure. So I don't know
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: why the line is really five and a half now,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: Like Jared Allen, if he does come back, that shouldn't
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: move the line that much. So it might be because
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: of the zigzag. So you guys know, I always talking
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: about the zig zag when it comes into play in
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: the playoffs a lot. But the books know about it now,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: but you could still use it in the right spots now. Basically,
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: it's when two teams are playing each other in multiple
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: games in a row, you kind of fade what happened
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: in the first game because the public wants to kind
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: of jump on what happened in the first game because oh,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: Miami just won at Cleveland. That means they could do
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: it again here they're getting more points this time, right,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: But that's not what I would do. I would actually
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: fade Miami here in the zigzag, even though I know
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: they ended along losing streak over a six game losing
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: streak or whatever five game losing streak. With that win,
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: I get it, like sometimes that will give you new momentum,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: But Cleveland is gonna be the team with all the
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: adjustments to make in this one, right, because if you're Miami,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: everything you did worked and you won that game, so
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: you have no adjustments to make. So that's why the
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: zigzag works and is strong because the team that was
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: on the wrong side, if it was like an outlier,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: they tend to be the team to make the adjustments. Now,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: Cleveland actually did lose a win streak of four games there,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: and a lot of times I talk about this, when
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: a team loses a win streak, they could be hung
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: over into the next game, and the team that ends
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: they're losing streak, like Miami, could have new momentum, positive
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: momentum going into the next game. So those things might
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: factor into this game. But I do think I still
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: lean to Cleveland here. I don't really want to lay
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: the five and a half though seventy three percent of
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: ticket seventy eight percent of the cash on them, the
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: line being five and a half seems a little crazy
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: to me. If Jared Allen comes back, he's been out
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: for months, so again, that might kind of throw a
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: wrench into Cleveland's rotation there and they might have to
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: readjust and there might be an adjustment period there. So
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't love that either. For Cleveland. This is a
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: stay away from me. The next game up, I considered
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: giving out as a play Houston at Memphis. Here, I
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: think Houston is in a bad spot. Man. They just
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: lost a big game at Minnesota in overtime. And if
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: that's not enough for you, you know the fact they're
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: coming off a huge game on the road where they
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: almost pulled off the mild ish upset against Minnesota there.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: I think Minnesota was still without Anthony Edwards though, But
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: if you look at what happened in that game, Houston
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: was winning the game by thirteen points with three minutes
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: to go in overtime and they lost. Yeah, you heard
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: me correctly. Houston was winning by thirteen points with three
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: minutes left in overtime. They lost the game. Minnesota went
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: on a fifteen old run to finish overtime and win
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: that game. I don't think I've ever even heard of
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: anything like that happening. It's completely insane. So if you're
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: Houston and you had that game one basically and then
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: you lost in that fashion, I think that's bad, dude.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: And Houston does have New Orleans on deck. In New
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: Orleans has actually given Houston a lot of problems this season,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: so they might actually even look ahead to that game,
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: and they got the Knicks after that. I don't see
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: them really being focused on Memphis, who's a team that
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: just doesn't have any of their starters playing. They've kind
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: of packed it in for the season. And that's kind
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: of the thing about Memphis here, right. If you want
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: Memphis here and I agree with Memphis in this game,
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: they're gonna have to give you effort, and that's kind
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: of the issue here. The question is will they I
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: don't know, they've lost four more games in a row.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: They actually played competitively in a couple of those games.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: They got blown out in their last game at home
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: by San Antonio, But was that because of a lack
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: of effort or was because san Antonio is that good?
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know, And they got blown out in the
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: game prior to that against Atlanta on the road. I
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: think Memphis will give you an effort here against Houston
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: because Houston is going to be a playoff team. I
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: would take the points with the Grizzlies here. Money looks
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: like it's not really agreeing with me. The Rockets are
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: minus thirteen eighty percent of the tickets ninety seven percent
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Houston. Yeah, the only way that
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: I could see actually playing this game is to take
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: the points with Memphis, though, but they're gonna have to
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: give you an effort, so it remains to me seen.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: But if I was gonna add another play in my card,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: it was going to be that one in the NBA.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: Dirty sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out all right?
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: Next game is oh yeah, the next game is the
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: play I'm gonna give out. I told you guys, you're
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: gonna love this one. You already know what it is.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: We're gonna take the Chicago Bulls plus nineteen and a
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: half against Oklahoma City. Yeah, that's what we're doing in
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: this one. Man. I think this is a great spot
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: or a really bad spot for Oklahoma City. And I
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: know they're good at home, but this is a crazy number, dude.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City, as good as they are at home, I
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: think they win by about fifteen on average at home
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: right now, and this is a nineteen and a half number.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: We're gonna take the Bulls now. The Bulls have played
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: with a little bit of effort recently. You could see
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: they played a close game against Cleveland. They beat Memphis
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: not that long ago them. Maybe Memphis wasn't trying. Bulls
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: have a winning here against Golden State on the road.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: They played decently against the Lakers there. They beat Houston recently,
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: and then in their most recent game, they had a
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: pretty embarrassing performance against Philadelphia. Philadelphia. Philadelphia, by the way,
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: I didn't realize Paul George actually came back in that
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: game as well. He came back from suspension and Joel
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: Embiid returned in that game, So it was a double
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: reverse injured players about a reverse injured and first suspended
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: player spot there and what happened. Philadelphia actually still put
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: up twenty points there. But you remember I actually leaned
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: to Philadelphia in that game, even though I didn't know
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 1: that George was coming back. I neglected to realize that.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: But the Bulls are coming up that big winning as Houston,
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: so I was just like, yeah, they're gonna kind of
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: run out of steam here, I think. But putting up
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty seven points Philadelphia doing that is
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: just insane. So if you're the Bulls, you give up
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty seven. I know the Bulls are
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: not known for their defense, and they're known for kind
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: of going up and down the floor and playing fast
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: paced games. But that's ridiculous. So I think the Bulls
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: are going to show up in this game. I mean,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: you get to play the best team in the NBA here, man,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: I think the Bulls are gonna give you an effort.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: Especially again, when teams give up an embarrassing amount of
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: points like that, a lot of times you do get
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: effort out of them in the next game. Of though. Granted,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: they kind of looked good in that loss, in the
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: fact that they put up one hundred and thirty seven
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: points themselves, but the spot for Oklahoma City is just awful.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: They've been on the road for ten days. They went
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: to the East Coast. They had an East coast trip here,
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: and they finished the East Coast trip with a game
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: against the Celtics, a huge game. Celtics won the game
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: by ten, So they're coming up that big game, but
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 1: they're returning over from a road trip on top of it. So,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: like I always talking about, when a team returns on
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, a lot of times they will
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: be distracted. They have to get back to home life.
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: They might not pay attention to a bad team like Chicago.
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: The other thing about Oklahoma City is they lost a
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: long win streak with that loss. They'd won I think
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: twelve games in a row and they lost. So when
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: a team has a long win streak like that, the
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: longer the wind streak, the worst the hangover is when
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: you lose the win streak. So I think that is
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: in effect here. We have a hangover spot with the
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma City having lost that win streak. And it's even
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: worse because they have three big games on deck against
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: the Knicks, the Pistons, and the Lakers. Those are all
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: way bigger games. So this is also a sandwich spot.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: So like you have all these things is coming into
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: play here the return home spot, hangover spot for multiple reasons,
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: one being coming off a big game, the other being
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: coming off losing a huge win streak. You have a
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: look ahead spot, so it's a sandwich spot. You have
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: so many things that I look for, all coming into
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: play in this game. We gotta do it. We gotta
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: take Chicago plus the points. That's what we're doing in
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: the swim. That's the only NBA play of the day.
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: Let me see here, money is sort of indicating on
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: the Thunder and whatever man seventy four percent of tickets,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent cash on the Thunder. I don't care.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: We're taking the points of the bulls here. That's what
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: we're doing. Hopefully it's not gonna be bull in that game.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: That's what we're doing. No, we're not laying it. We're
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: taking those points. I will occasionally lay huge numbers in
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: the NBA, though it's got to be a pretty good
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: spot for it to be the case. Though, definitely a
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: playoffs zigzag, you'll see me like potentially laying double digits
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: on the road and stuff like that, depending. I did
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: it with the Celtics at least once last year. Like
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: when you have a team it's that good coming off
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: a loss in the playoffs. Yeah, laying it on the
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: road and that next game makes a lot of sense,
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: especially because the Celtics are actually really good in a
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: situation like that. All Right, New Orleans at Toronto. New
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: Orleans just lost by twenty one to Detroit. They do
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: have Houston on deck, which maybe they'll be looking ahead to.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: But I don't know. New Orleans. I mean, they've actually
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: been putting an effort. They're like they're not going away Man,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: they put in some effort here. They won three games
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: in a row, then they lost close to Cleveland and
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: to the Knicks. So I think New Orleans is actually
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: playing hard down the stretch. But will they overlook Toronto
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: looking towards Houston. I don't know. Maybe New Orleans wants
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: to try to get a win on this road trip
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: because they're own two on the road trip for Toronto.
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: They just got blown out by the Clippers, but they
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: were returning on from a road trip, so no, I
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: think that's a bad spot, even though the last time
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: they played New Orleans actually lost at New Orleans. But
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's gonna be enough to focus Toronto.
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: Here man playing a team that's in the Western Conference.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: Toronto's returning on from a road trip they've been on
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: since the eighteenth. They went into elevation during the road trip,
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: and then they went to the West Coast for a
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: game as well, and returning on from all that all
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: the way up to Toronto, I think it's a bad spot.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: I think they might be a little bit distracted. They
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: got a couple of conference foes on deck. Between Orlando
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: and Detroit. Those games are bigger. I like New Orleans
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: in this game. That would be my opinion. Here money
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: looks like it's indicating on the Raptors. I do not
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: agree with that. Sixty four percent of tickets, eighty four
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Raptors, they're laying eight
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: and a half. I would take the points with the
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: Pelicans in that game. Utah at Denver, Utah, the question
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: is the effort. Are you gonna get an effort out
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: of Utah? Maybe? I mean they put an effort in
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: some of their recent games, and they're coming off a
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: very disgusting loss. They just lost at home by twenty
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: three to the Washington Wizards. I mean, it doesn't really
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: get much worse than that. Maybe they were looking ahead
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: to Denver here. Maybe they will give you an effort here,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: like leave home, just go on the road. Utah is
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: a team that's used to playing in elevation too, so
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: I think maybe you will get an effort out of
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: Utah here. Denver coming into this game off of beating
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: Dallas not really a big deal. They're Golden State on
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: deck that is a TV game. Maybe they do look
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: ahead to that just because of the name, even though
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: Golden State is a very injured team right now, I
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: can close the rest of these tabs. Here I think
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards Utah. Here. The money actually does
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: agree with that. The Nuggets are laying eighteen points. Nuggets,
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: I mean they could definitely score, so they do have
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: the ability to cover big numbers like this. And the Jazz,
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: you know, not great on defense, but the Nuggets are
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: also not They're not amazing at home either. Fifty four
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets are on the Nuggets, sixty two percent
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Jazz. Money is indicating on
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: the Jazz. I agree with that. Washington at Golden State, Washington,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: like I said, just beat ut by a lot. Washington
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: had lost like sixteen or seventeen games in a row
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: or something prior to that, so they ended a long
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: losing streak. So maybe they have some momentum now, you
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. When a team's losing every game
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: and they finally win, sometimes they will have some momentum
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: coming to the next game. They did just lose a
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: home to Golden State back on the sixteenth in a
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: return home spot, by the way, so it wasn't the
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: greatest spot for Washington there. Maybe Golden State will overlook
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: Washington a little bit because of this Golden State. Problem
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: with that is, though Golden State just had a bad
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: game against Brooklyn, which one of you guys mentioned that
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: game in my chat yesterday. Golden State was like a
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: twelve and a half point favorite in that game and
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: they only won by three. But that was a return
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: home spot for Golden State. That was a bad spot
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip. So I think they
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 1: kind of got caught in that spot. A lot of
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: times when a team doesn't do well in that spot,
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: they do better or in the next game. Now, the
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: problem with that is, again, they did just beat Washington
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: on the road not long ago, and they have big
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: games on deck against Denver, San Antonio, Cleveland, and Houston,
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: most of those games on TV as well. So I
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: kind of lean towards Washington in this one, but it's
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: not a strong opinion for me. I think the Warriors
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: are in an okay spot, but you're also asking him
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: to lay fourteen points with that Warrior team, which I
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: think they still have all those injuries going on fifty
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: ticket seventy two percent of the cash on the Wizards.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: The money is indicating on the Wizards. I think the
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: Wizards are a pretty injured team too though right now.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: But yeah, Steph Curry is supposed to come back in
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: their next game. I kind of doubt it. We'll see.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: They keep pushing his timetable back, and then Washington is
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: missing a lot of their guys, including Trey Young, who
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: I guess is supposed to come back in their next game.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 1: Don't know if that's gonna be the case. It looks
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: like Sorrow might come back from them in this game.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: He's questionable. He's been out since the twenty first. He's
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: one of the big men on Washington. We'll see if
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: he does come back. Don't know if he will. Dallas
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: at Portland, I believe a Duke has a guy named
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: sar right now too, don't they I don't know are
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: they related? I have no idea. Dallas at Portland is
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: also an NBA TV game, along with the one that
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: we're playing in Chicago, and Oksee and Miami Cleveland. Miami
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: Miami Cleveland. Really the only game that I would qualify
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: as good out of any of these three, Dallas and Portland.
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: This is ugly Dallas coming off playing back to back
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: overtime games against the Clippers, in Golden State. Then they
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: had a somewhat close game at Denver. They lost by
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: seven at Denver. That game was not that close though,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: Like I looked to the box score, like Dallas kind
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: of crept in late in the game. They were down
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: double digits late, like Denver was never in danger of losing.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: But still a pretty big effort from Dallas. And that one.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: Now having to go to the Pacific Coast out of elevation,
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: they got Minnesota on deck. Maybe they pay more attention
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: to that game. I don't know. Portland coming into this
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: game off of an easy win over Milwaukee, a blowout win.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: They've had two blowout wins in a row, winning each
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: game by thirty plus points. Against Brooklyn. That's not a surprise.
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: And then Milwaukee without Yannis. Yeah, I mean Portland, maybe
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: they look a little bit too good off of those wins.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: They're laying a lot of points here, They're laying ten
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: and a half. I wouldn't want to do it, but
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: the money is actually indicating on the Blazers. Fifty four
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the MAVs, fifty seven percent of
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: the casual on the Blazers. I don't totally disagree with
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: it because the MAVs, as I showed you were coming
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: off that game in Denver. But I don't want anything
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: to really do with it, of course. And then Brooklyn
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: at the Lakers is the last game. Brooklyn, the way
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: that they blew that game against Golden State is a
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: double digit underdog. I don't like them coming into this game,
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: even though, yeah, you could argue they should get up
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: for a game against the Lakers. It's the final game
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: of the road trips. You could argue that they should
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: show up. I try to get a win here, but
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: they're also playing a fourth game in six days, all
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: in different cities, fifth and eight days, all in different cities,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: and coming off almost pulling off an upset of Golden
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 1: State where they had the lead throughout the second half
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: as a double digit favor And you know, I talk
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: about this. When a team almost has that win as
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: a double digit favorite, a lot of times they are
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: hung over in the next game. The Lakers might be
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit motivated because they had a little bit
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: of a close call in their last game against Indiana.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: It was a questionable spot. I mentioned I leaned towards
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: Indiana in that game, remember, because because the Lakers had
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: lost a win streak in a close game against Detroit,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: so I thought it was a bad spot to finish
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: the road trip against Indiana. But finishing the road trip
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: that's pretty key here. That means LA is returning on
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: from a road trip. Here, they've been on the road
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: for like ten or eleven days, then went all the
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: way down to the East coast down to Florida during
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: the road trip. So I always talk about that when
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: a team returns home from a road trip, it's a
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: ad spot. A lot of times they'll overlook their opponent,
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 1: they won't be focused. They only have Washington on decks,
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: so that's not a big deal. If they had Cleveland
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: and Okay, see up next instead of Washington in the middle,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: there might be more worth considering here. But I also
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 1: don't want the Nets coming off that performance they just have.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: But the money is indicating on the nets. I think
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of that is because everybody knows the road
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: trip return is a horrible spot. So I'm not really
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 1: gonna disagree with taking the points of the nets here.
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: I think if you forced me to give you an
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 1: opinion on this game, that would be my opinion. But
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: I don't love it Lakers down from seventeen and a
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: half to sixteen. Here fifty four percent of tickets on
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: the Lakers, seventy one percent of the cash on the nets.
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 1: So do with that information what you want. The money's
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: indicating on the nets. That's gonna do it. Man. We
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: have these long ish shows with baseball starting tomorrow is
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: gonna be maybe longer because there are more baseball games
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: and I get too autistic about it. And last year's
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: baseball season wasn't good enough. Man. We need to be
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 1: better here. We're one one and one so far in baseball.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: We need to be better. Maybe I need to be
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: more selective or something. I don't know what we need
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: to do here, but you know, maybe I need to
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: change the way that I handicap. I don't know. I've
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: been doing this for a long time though, But that's
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. The plays today are Houston Astros on
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: the I recommended the run line, the minus one run
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: line at a cheaper price. Make your own minus one
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: run line with part partially one and a half run
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 1: line and partially money line I think is fine as well.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: But finding a way to play the Astros there and
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: then we also have the under uh, make sure you
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 1: can find the hook. I think you can find it
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen out there under seven and a
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: half Tiger's padres. And then we do have the bulls
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: plus a shit ton of points, a bullshit ton of
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: points there against the thunder. Yeah, that's what we do
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: on this show here, man. We're trying to find the
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 1: best spots to to get some some money there. That's
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Learn it to on Twitter, learn it
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: on Instagram, you know, like subscribe to the channel Hero's
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: boost this channel. Give me some good comments, man. You
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: know we are on audio as well, Apple Spotify. That
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: helps as well. Listening over there, reviewing over there. We
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: got covered in you because my yuke channel on YouTube.
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 1: You can check that out Patreon dot com, slash and
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: learn it toe if you wanna throw me some support
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: that way, and maybe I'll give you some yuke stuff,
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 1: although I haven't been keeping up with it because I suck.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: And then Loser casts will be back Tuesday nights. That's
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Thank you. I appreciate everybody. Thanks for
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: hanging out. Everybody. Charles dirty sock Hindian mister Pinsey, is
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 1: that everybody was in the chat today. Where's Kyle, Where's Jeffrey?
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: Where are these guys today? I don't know that's gonna
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: do it, man, I appreciate it. I'll be back as
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: usual tomorrow for the Saturday slate and uh yeah, I
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: mean I don't know if any of you guys are
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 1: in Boston or whatever, but yes, I will be at
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: the Dave Smith show tonight. I told them him and Robbie.
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: I told them it was gonna be Saturday. I got
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: my dates mixed up. I looked at my ticket and
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: I'm like, oh shit, I have a Friday night ticket,
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: all right, So whatever, So that's gonna be tonight. Let's
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 1: uh hopefully we get some wins tonight. Man. Peace