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One Week Until U.S. Elections · The Hugh Hewitt Show: Highly Concentrated

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to today's podcast sponsored by Hillsdale College.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: All things Hillsdale at hillsdale.edu.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: I encourage you to take advantage of the many free
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  Speaker 1: online courses there and of course to listen to the
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  Speaker 1: Hillsdale Dialogues. All of them at hueforhillsdale.com or just google Apple,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: iTunes and Hillsdale. Morning Laurie and evening Grace America.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Good Tuesday to you.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: A week out to our elections and in fact the
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  Speaker 1: Israeli elections. We should get some reports next hour. Talking
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  Speaker 1: now with Matt Continetti. He is the Senior Director of
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  Speaker 1: Research at the Domestic Policy at the American Enterprise Institute,
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  Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal columnist at the Free Expressions Vertical, friend
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  Speaker 1: of the program, friend of the commentary podcast as well. Matt,
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  Speaker 1: what do you think is going to happen in Israel
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  Speaker 1: in an hour?
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  Speaker 3: Well, Hugh, I wish I knew.
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  Speaker 4: I think what will happen in Israel is there's going
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  Speaker 4: to be a lot of coalition bargaining that will take
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  Speaker 4: place over the next week, potentially many weeks. And we'll see.
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  Speaker 4: The turnout seems to be extraordinarily high in Israel, record
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  Speaker 4: turnout for a country that usually has pretty high participation.
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  Speaker 4: And I think the real question as we begin to
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  Speaker 4: sift through the results of the Israeli election is where
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  Speaker 4: is that turnout coming from? Is it coming from young voters?
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  Speaker 4: Is it coming from new voters who have been fighting
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  Speaker 4: in the wars? Is it coming from the Arab sector?
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  Speaker 4: Of course, Israel is a place where its Arab citizens
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  Speaker 4: can vote, unlike basically everywhere else in the Middle East,
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  Speaker 4: in the Arab world. Where those new voters are coming from,
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  Speaker 4: I think, will be the big question and will probably
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  Speaker 4: determine whether Bibi Netanyahu can form another coalition or not.
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  Speaker 1: Now, Matt Connetti, as of two hours ago, the Israeli
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  Speaker 1: electorate had already turned out Two-thirds, 66.7%, and they had
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  Speaker 1: two hours to vote yet, and that will be concluded
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  Speaker 1: in one hour. So they had three more hours to vote.
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  Speaker 1: Earlier today, I listened to the commentary podcast, and Seth
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  Speaker 1: Mandel made the argument, a big turnout probably means more
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  Speaker 1: Arab votes, less votes for Bibi. Yesterday on this program, Dr.
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  Speaker 1: Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to the United States, said
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  Speaker 1: don't be surprised if Ben-Gavir goes up. because of the youngsters,
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  Speaker 1: the young men and women who served in Gaza for
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  Speaker 1: the last three years, really hardening their positions politically.
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  Speaker 2: What do you make about that prediction?
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  Speaker 4: It's an interesting one. Of course, Ambassador Oren is on
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  Speaker 4: the ground in Israel and deeply familiar with Israeli politics.
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  Speaker 4: So I thought I was struck by that observation he
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  Speaker 4: made to you, Hugh. And I think as we enter
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  Speaker 4: the election in Israel and a week before our own election,
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  Speaker 4: We need to take a step back and recognize the
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  Speaker 4: importance of elections in constitutional democracies and the tool it
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  Speaker 4: gives societies like ours and like Israel's in fulfilling their
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  Speaker 4: promise to their citizenry, acting as a check, also securing
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  Speaker 4: the rights of the voters. So that's important to recognize.
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  Speaker 4: Israel is a pluralistic democracy surrounded by enemies who if
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  Speaker 4: they were given the chance, would destroy it. And that's
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  Speaker 4: what I think makes this day so special, and I
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  Speaker 4: think why Israelis are turning out in such numbers at
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  Speaker 4: the polls.
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  Speaker 1: There was one event that may have shaken up Israelis
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  Speaker 1: in the last week. That is a terrorist attack, not
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  Speaker 1: in Israel, though they had one, and two IDF soldiers
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  Speaker 1: were killed by terrorists. But there was a terrorist attack
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  Speaker 1: in next door neighbor Jordan, and King Abdullah, it was
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  Speaker 1: on an Orthodox Christian church, and King Abdullah went to the, hospital,
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  Speaker 1: dressed up in his fatigues and assured everyone, we will
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  Speaker 1: fight this terror. Do you think that most of the
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  Speaker 1: Middle East is just tired of Iranian Islamist terror, that
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  Speaker 1: after 50 years of this, they just want it to
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  Speaker 1: be over?
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  Speaker 4: I'd like that to be the case, Hugh, but I
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  Speaker 4: don't know if it is the case. Fortunately, Islamism and
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  Speaker 4: terrorism have been part of the political equation in the
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  Speaker 4: Middle East for decades, and I don't see them abating
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  Speaker 4: anytime soon. I was struck by that attack in Jordan,
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  Speaker 4: as you mentioned. I also noticed that it got almost
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  Speaker 4: no coverage in Western media. How fascinating that they would
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  Speaker 4: get no coverage in Western media, whereas everything the Israelis do,
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  Speaker 4: everything that the IDF does, receives inordinate amount of coverage.
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  Speaker 4: It's that type of double standard, I think, that Israel
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  Speaker 4: has to live under. And it's why there's so much
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  Speaker 4: attention being paid in the West and in the United
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  Speaker 4: States to the results of this election, which, by the way,
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  Speaker 4: probably won't do anything much to change Israel's relations with
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  Speaker 4: the rest of the world. A lot of this election
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  Speaker 4: in Israel is being decided on domestic issues. You mentioned
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  Speaker 4: Arab votes. Arab voters are very concerned with the crime
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  Speaker 4: in their communities in Israel. You mentioned other issues such
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  Speaker 4: as the economy, issues about the treatment of the ultra-Orthodox population,
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  Speaker 4: which does not serve in the main. in the Israeli military,
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  Speaker 4: yet gets showered with benefits by the state. And of course,
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  Speaker 4: the question of accountability for October 7th and Prime Minister
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  Speaker 4: Netanyahu's blocking of an official inquiry. All of those are issues,
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  Speaker 4: but the larger state of Israeli relations with the rest
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  Speaker 4: of the world, Israel's security policies toward Iran, toward Hamas,
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  Speaker 4: toward the Houthis, toward Hezbollah, those, I think, are pretty
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  Speaker 4: much settled in the Israeli mind that Israel will not
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  Speaker 4: allow itself to be victimized once again.
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  Speaker 1: The two-state solution that I've been thinking about since the
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  Speaker 1: attack in Jordan is that the two states are Jordan
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  Speaker 1: and Israel, and that the West Bank, also known as
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  Speaker 1: Judea and Samaria, ought to be divided not with the PLA,
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  Speaker 1: but with King Abdullah.
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  Speaker 2: Do you think that will ever be resurrected?
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  Speaker 4: Well, some observers have put forward that solution. Of course,
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  Speaker 4: that was the... That's the original solution because the war
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  Speaker 4: in 67 was among other powers with Jordan. And that's
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  Speaker 4: where the territory was claimed from Jordan. But Jordanians have
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  Speaker 4: always been very, very reluctant to take over the West Bank,
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  Speaker 4: mainly because it's already a Palestinian population. And the kings
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  Speaker 4: and the elite there are worried about what might happen
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  Speaker 4: if they take in even more Palestinians. But I do
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  Speaker 4: hope that that solution is followed or pursued in the
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  Speaker 4: coming years. But even as I remain doubtful that it
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  Speaker 4: will actually come into fruition, come into being.
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  Speaker 1: So, Matt Kennedy, I want to briefly switch over to
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  Speaker 1: our own cycle. Do you think our turnout will be
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  Speaker 1: significantly higher than a midterm turnout? Because Donald Trump is,
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  Speaker 1: to my knowledge and to my experience, been– trying to
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  Speaker 1: get people to vote more than any other midterm president
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  Speaker 1: in my memory. Do you have a different recollection? Do
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  Speaker 1: you recall a president working this hard to get the
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  Speaker 1: vote out in a midterm?
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  Speaker 4: You know, Hugh, it's funny. I had not thought of
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  Speaker 4: any prior example of a president working this hard until
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  Speaker 4: I was reminded of one by Britt Hume of Fox News.
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  Speaker 4: And Britt has made the interesting observation that President Clinton
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  Speaker 4: worked very hard on behalf of Democrats, crisscrossing the country
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  Speaker 4: ahead of the 1994 elections. And those elections, of course,
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  Speaker 4: 32 years ago, were very bad for Clinton and the
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  Speaker 4: Democrats and very good for Republicans.
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  Speaker 3: But we'll see.
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  Speaker 4: Trump is a turnout machine. He turns out voters for
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  Speaker 4: him and he turns out voters against him. And the
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  Speaker 4: midterm turnout in 2018, the last time he had a midterm,
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  Speaker 4: was pretty high. And so we could see the same
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  Speaker 4: thing here. The early vote doesn't really give us a
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  Speaker 4: sign that to my mind anyway, what overall turnout will be.
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  Speaker 4: And I'm also receiving conflicting reports in this silly season
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  Speaker 4: right before the election. Some people are saying rural turnout
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  Speaker 4: is down. That would hurt Republicans. Other people are saying
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  Speaker 4: that the college students and young people aren't that enthusiastic
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  Speaker 4: to vote. That, of course, would probably hurt the Democrats,
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  Speaker 4: given that the young people have turned against Trump over
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  Speaker 4: the last two years. And we'll just have to wait
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  Speaker 4: and see.
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  Speaker 1: Two polls came out today, and I am really an
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  Speaker 1: agnostic on polls, but I'll mention them because they're in
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  Speaker 1: the news.
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  Speaker 2: They're breaking.
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  Speaker 1: One shows El-Sayed up by six points over Mike Rogers,
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  Speaker 1: and one shows the main governor's race between Pingree and
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  Speaker 1: Bobby Charles as being tied. Now, if that latter is true,
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  Speaker 1: Susan Collins is going to win in a walk. I
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  Speaker 1: don't think it's right. So that's one Republican, one poll
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  Speaker 1: that's pro-Republican. I'm just dismissing the Michigan poll that says
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  Speaker 1: Abdul El-Sayed, who's the most radical of Major party candidate
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  Speaker 1: in my lifetime is up by five.
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  Speaker 2: I don't believe that either. I'm beginning to wonder. I
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  Speaker 2: don't have any confidence in any poll. Do you?
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  Speaker 4: Well, remember, this is around the time in 2024 when
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  Speaker 4: the Iowa poll put out by the gold standard of
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  Speaker 4: Iowa pollsters, Ann Selzer, showed that Kamala Harris was on
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  Speaker 4: her way to routing Trump in Iowa. And that, of course,
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  Speaker 4: was not the case. Trump won Iowa by double digits
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  Speaker 4: on Election Day. I really think we should be skeptical
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  Speaker 4: of polls. Polls give us a general sense of where
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  Speaker 4: the race is. All we need to do, Hugh, is
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  Speaker 4: look at what happened in Brazil on Sunday and see
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  Speaker 4: how the polls and expectations, conventional wisdom can easily be
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  Speaker 4: proven wrong. We can look at taking El-Sayed for an example.
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  Speaker 4: Here's a candidate who was leading by double digits, according
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  Speaker 4: to polls, had close to 99% prediction that he would
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  Speaker 4: win on the prediction markets ahead of the August primary.
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  Speaker 4: He ended up barely winning that primary. I think there's
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  Speaker 4: a real sense that El-Sayed underperforms his polls. And I
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  Speaker 4: think that there are some shy Mike Rogers voters in
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  Speaker 4: Michigan who aren't being counted or being inaccurately counted in
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  Speaker 4: those polls.
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  Speaker 1: I think you're right. As usual, Matt Continetti. Follow Matt
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  Speaker 1: at Continetti on X. Read him in the Wall Street Journal,
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  Speaker 1: his work over at AEI. Hope we talk to you
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  Speaker 1: on Friday, Matt, as we get closer to our election.
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  Speaker 1: We can assess the results of the Israeli election. Stay tuned, America.
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  Speaker 1: It's Election Day in Israel, and it's a week away
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  Speaker 1: from our own election, right here on the Hugh Hewitt Show.
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  Speaker 2: Welcome back, America.
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  Speaker 1: I'm Hugh Hewitt, joined now by Michael Duncan, one of
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  Speaker 1: the fellows on the Ruthless podcast, which you can hear Monday, Tuesday, Thursday.
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  Speaker 1: Now you can hear it on Sunday on the Fox
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: News Channel Live, watching it noon to two before football goes. Dunks,
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: I got to ask you, that's what they call you
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: on the program. What's happened to your Colts, my friend?
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  Speaker 5: The Colts are in fire sale mode here, Hugh, unfortunately.
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  Speaker 5: I know we just got rid of Quentin Nelson's tough
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: to see him go. He's like an eight-time pro bowler. But,
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  Speaker 5: you know, we're selling the whole thing for parts. We
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  Speaker 5: need draft capital, Hugh.
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  Speaker 2: Would you sell Quentin to?
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  Speaker 5: Gosh, who did he go?
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  Speaker 2: Seahawks.
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  Speaker 1: Oh, that's too bad. I wanted him on the Browns.
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  Speaker 1: He's a great guard. Who else is going to be
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: disassembled for parts?
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  Speaker 5: Well, DeForest Buckner, I think, is on the trading block
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  Speaker 5: for sure. Very, very talented defensive tackle. Came back from
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: a neck injury, and he's on fire this year. I
• 11:55
  Speaker 5: would expect they'd probably move him. I do not think
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: they're going to move Jonathan Taylor. I think leadership in
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: Indianapolis sees him as still the future franchise.
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  Speaker 1: So the Ruthless Parlay, which is the Broncos and the Colts,
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  Speaker 1: the Vikings and— Who's the fourth one?
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  Speaker 2: Oh, the Bengals. That hasn't hit yet this year, has it? No,
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  Speaker 2: it hasn't.
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  Speaker 5: I mean, I think technically it hit because the Vikings
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  Speaker 5: played the Colts last week. But, you know, it's been
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  Speaker 5: tough sledding. A lot of ups and a lot of
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  Speaker 5: downs this season for all of our teams, except for
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  Speaker 5: the Vikings, who are undefeated, which pains me to say
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: because it would make Josh very happy.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, well, most of the people listening want to hear
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  Speaker 1: your take on politics, and I'm going to start with
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  Speaker 1: the most controversial race in the nation. What do you
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: think about Michigan? There was a new poll out today.
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  Speaker 1: I was just talking about it with Matt Continetti. It
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  Speaker 1: showed El-Sayed up by five points, which I do not
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  Speaker 1: believe for a moment. What says Michael Duncan?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, I have a hard time seeing it being that
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  Speaker 5: large of a gap, Hugh. I mean, this is a
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  Speaker 5: race that has defied the national environment where it's eroded
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  Speaker 5: for Republicans. It's kind of been its own thing, and
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  Speaker 5: that's the direct result of Abdul El-Sayed being a candidate
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  Speaker 5: so far out of the mainstream of Democratic politics. So
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  Speaker 5: I expect it's going to be a nail-biter in Michigan. And,
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  Speaker 5: you know, I don't think the polls there have been
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  Speaker 5: very accurate, particularly in that primary, where Al-Sayed was, I think,
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  Speaker 5: up double digits heading into primary day, and then he
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: ultimately won the thing by less than a point. So
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  Speaker 5: I think pollsters are having a hard time of putting
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: an electorate together that's reflective of who ultimately will show
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: up when they're conducting these polls.
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  Speaker 1: Now, Michael, you know Brett Baer very well, so do I,
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  Speaker 1: and I think he's a gentleman and maybe the standard
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  Speaker 1: for a news anchor in America. That interview that he
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: did on Thursday night with El Sayed, in which El
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Sayed was arrogant and evasive and unresponsive and just flat-out rude,
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  Speaker 1: I think that hurt El Sayed.
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  Speaker 2: What do you think? I agree.
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  Speaker 5: In fact, he's like that in all of his interviews.
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  Speaker 5: The closer we get to Election Day, it really bothers
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: him that people are asking very simple questions and they
• 14:12
  Speaker 5: expect an answer, which he seems unwilling to provide. He
• 14:16
  Speaker 5: dances around everything, whether it's his radical agenda on things
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: on the DSA platform or it's the Muslim Brotherhood. He
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: can't provide one straight answer, Hugh. And he gets frustrated
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: that people keep asking the same questions. We'll just give
• 14:31
  Speaker 5: a straight answer, and we'll stop asking the question.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: He can't answer about that 2012 letter, and that's why
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: he talked over Brett, because the moment he says, yeah,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: I signed that, and I know it supports a Muslim
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Brotherhood dictator, but he can't say I made a mistake
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: because it.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: Gives the lie to every other no, no, no that
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: he gave.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: To Christian Welker. All right, let's go from east to
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: west across the map. I think Susan Collins is going
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: to be fine. As I've said on air, you've said
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: on air, she sits on the throne of political skulls.
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  Speaker 2: What do you think?
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  Speaker 5: I think so, Hugh. I mean, look, she's defied longer
• 15:06
  Speaker 5: odds than where she finds herself today. And she's never
• 15:11
  Speaker 5: faced a candidate this radical in those races. I mean,
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: Sarah Gideon was very well capitalized in that race, raised
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: over $ 100 million outspent Susan. And she defied the polls
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: by double digits in that race. And this one will
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: be another squeaker. And if anyone can do it in
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: this environment, it's Susan Collins.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: All right, let's go over then to Ohio. You know,
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Indiana is Western Ohio. We carved it out of the
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Western Reserve, so you know a little bit about Ohio.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: John Husted, great senator, running against a retread, Sherrod Brown,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: who got thrown out two years ago.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: But it's a midterm. What say you, Michael Duncan?
• 15:50
  Speaker 5: Well, what I've noticed in a lot of these polls, Hugh,
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: is even when Husted is slightly behind Sherrod Brown, Sherrod
• 15:57
  Speaker 5: Brown can't really get above 47.5 or 48 points. And
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: I think that's a result of everybody knowing enough about
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: Sherrod Brown in a state that is overwhelmingly ruby red
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: at this point in the Trump era. And so I
• 16:11
  Speaker 5: think Sherrod Brown, in order to win, is going to
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: have to convince people who have voted against him. And
• 16:16
  Speaker 5: there's still about 20 percent of the electorate who think
• 16:19
  Speaker 5: Sherrod Brown's the incumbent. They know everything they need to
• 16:23
  Speaker 5: know about Sherrod Brown. So I have a hard time
• 16:25
  Speaker 5: thinking he's ultimately going to be beating Houston on Election Day. But,
• 16:29
  Speaker 5: you know, the environment is difficult in the state. And
• 16:34
  Speaker 5: so I think it's going to be another very close one.
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: So I've got a couple of house guests this week,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: Michael Duncan, Sven and Lena from Minnesota. Not their real name,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: but they are from the Twin Cities. They're pretty optimistic
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: about Michelle Tafoya. I just am impressed with her political talent.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: It's a tough state.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: What do you think?
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  Speaker 5: Incredible political talent. You know what I mean? Look, she
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: was a sideline reporter, so she's naturally charismatic. She understands
• 16:59
  Speaker 5: the issue.
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  Speaker 2: She's telegenic.
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  Speaker 5: And you contrast that against, you know, Peggy Flanagan, who,
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: you know, has presided over this horrible multi-billion dollar fraud,
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: doesn't have any answers. The local issues there I think,
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: really favored to FOIA. I do struggle to think that
• 17:18
  Speaker 5: she can get home ultimately in an environment nationally that's
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: so difficult for Republicans right now.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: I'll give you two minutes to cover Texas and Alaska,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: our two biggest states, but two out of three biggest states.
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: But you got to do them in two minutes, Michael.
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  Speaker 5: I would say the polling has been, I'm calling it
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: the baton death march in Texas, where Ken Paxton started there. 44, 45, 46.
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: He's been climbing up. And at that same time, early
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: voting has opened in Texas and Republicans are starting to
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: turn out. I think some of the models showing, you know,
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: a six point, seven point gap for Republicans right now
• 17:56
  Speaker 5: are a little rosy because Texas is an open primary state.
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: And I expect some attrition on the Republican side for
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: Ken Paxton.
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: So it's still.
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: Republicans need to continue to go out and vote in Texas.
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: You need to drive up that early vote margin. if
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: he hopes to win. Alaska, man, it is impossible to pull.
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: It is ranked choice voting. I, you know, Hugh, I
• 18:19
  Speaker 5: just straight up don't know. I think it's going to
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: be extremely close. I hope that given the Democrat shenanigans
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: with this other fake Dan Sullivan on the ballot, it's
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: not going to ultimately cost Senator Dan Sullivan if it
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: goes to a ranked choice runoff.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the real Dan Sullivan has to beat the trick,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: but I think his closing message of Don't rank Mary
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: is concise. Even rank the fake Dan Sullivan third, but
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: don't rank Mary, and that will work. I'll be listening
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: tomorrow and all week. Are you guys doing this Sunday
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: as well, Michael, on Fox?
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: No, no, we're off, but we've got a live stream
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: on Fox Nation for election night.
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: Looking forward to that.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: Okay, we're going to head-to-head, but that's fine. I like
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: a little competition. Michael Duncan from The Ruthless Podcast. Follow
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: him there. Follow him on X. Stay tuned to me.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back on The Hugh Hewitt Show.
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: Welcome back, America.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: I'm Hugh Hewitt. The polls in Israel close in 17 minutes.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: By the time I start the program in the 4
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: o'clock hour East Coast time, I should have some exit
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: polls for you.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: I'm joined by David M. Drucker. He's a Bloomberg opinion writer, contributor.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: To the Dispatch. David, I'm just going to start out
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: of left field with you. I'm watching Dave McCormick, David Drucker.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Dave McCormick is campaigning with Mike Rogers in Michigan. And
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: I am thinking Ted Cruz is definitely running for president.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: Maybe J.D.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Vance is running for president. Maybe Marco Rubio. I think
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is going to run
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: for president. But I would not be surprised. to see
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Dave McCormick run for president.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: Would you be?
• 19:54
  Speaker 6: No, absolutely not.
• 19:56
  Speaker 7: It's a conversation I've had with people, you know, when
• 19:59
  Speaker 7: we try and sort of put together future fields for
• 20:03
  Speaker 7: the Republican Party. And I've always thought maybe not in 2018,
• 20:08
  Speaker 7: but maybe, but maybe not in 28, but 2032 or.
• 20:13
  Speaker 6: 2036 for sure.
• 20:15
  Speaker 7: I would imagine if he's still in the Senate and relevant,
• 20:17
  Speaker 7: hasn't lost reelection.
• 20:19
  Speaker 6: I just think it's, I think he has.
• 20:21
  Speaker 7: The profile and it strikes a lot of us as
• 20:24
  Speaker 7: something he's interested in.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: And it strikes me as if you run for president
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: and you don't win, but you're from Pennsylvania, everybody wants
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: you to be their vice president at that point. And,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: He and Pompeo will be the same profile, West Pointer, legislator, businessman,
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: and pretty good speaker. But he's up there just ripping
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: into Al-Sayed now. Now let me switch to more mundane
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: and immediate things, David. Two polls came out today. I
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: was on with John Roberts earlier today on Fox talking
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: about them. One in Maine says that it's tied for
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: the governor's race, Pingree and Bobby Charles. I don't believe that.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: I think Pingree's going to win walking away. Another came
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: out from Michigan that said El-Sayed was up by five points.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: I don't believe that. I don't believe anyone knows what's
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: going to happen in Michigan. Do you share my disdain
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: for those two polls?
• 21:17
  Speaker 6: Well, I found those polls both curious. Let's just start
• 21:20
  Speaker 6: with Maine.
• 21:21
  Speaker 7: I have a hard time, like you do, believing those
• 21:24
  Speaker 7: numbers in the governor's race. The numbers in the Senate
• 21:27
  Speaker 7: race were believable as far as it goes.
• 21:29
  Speaker 6: It's a close race.
• 21:31
  Speaker 7: I could see either candidate being ahead right now by
• 21:34
  Speaker 7: a couple of points, which means it's a margin of
• 21:36
  Speaker 7: error race. The numbers they had in the governor's race
• 21:38
  Speaker 7: just made absolutely no sense.
• 21:40
  Speaker 6: I didn't detect any of that when I was on
• 21:41
  Speaker 6: the ground last week in Maine. You didn't see that
• 21:44
  Speaker 6: in any of the advertising.
• 21:45
  Speaker 7: Anything's possible, but it just doesn't fit with anything that
• 21:51
  Speaker 7: I've seen or in any conversations I've had about Maine.
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: And I want to confirm, I was there two weeks ago,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: and I want to confirm what David just said. It
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: doesn't correlate with anything I heard, saw, read, or felt.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Keep going to Michigan.
• 22:06
  Speaker 7: So, look, Michigan, it's slightly the reverse in that the
• 22:12
  Speaker 7: numbers for the governor's race in that poll I didn't
• 22:14
  Speaker 7: find to be out of left field or unrealistic. At
• 22:19
  Speaker 7: least the potential is there for a pretty good Jocelyn
• 22:22
  Speaker 7: Benson candidate. win over John James. Nothing against John James,
• 22:26
  Speaker 7: but he's been outspent. It's a bad Republican cycle. And
• 22:30
  Speaker 7: what do swing states usually do in, you know, wavy
• 22:34
  Speaker 7: years in midterm elections?
• 22:36
  Speaker 6: They go where the wind is going. I can see El-Sayed,
• 22:43
  Speaker 6: put it this way.
• 22:43
  Speaker 7: I can see a Democratic nominee for Senate being ahead
• 22:47
  Speaker 7: at this point in the race and winning a Senate
• 22:49
  Speaker 7: race in this kind of a cycle in I will
• 22:53
  Speaker 7: say those numbers contradict other numbers, public and private, that
• 22:57
  Speaker 7: I've seen, which have El Sayed up by a couple
• 23:01
  Speaker 7: of points.
• 23:02
  Speaker 6: And I still tend to think that.
• 23:05
  Speaker 7: The environment gives him a bit of an edge, even
• 23:08
  Speaker 7: though the positions that he takes on certain issues and
• 23:14
  Speaker 7: his unwillingness to shift the conversation back to his strong suit,
• 23:18
  Speaker 7: so it seems, would suggest a closer race than that poll.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Let me play for you a bit from CBS News online.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: This is Benjamin Emmerling, who is a Michigan Jewish voter.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Cut number 23.
• 23:32
  Speaker 8: You know, raising a Jewish family already has the fears
• 23:36
  Speaker 8: kind of installed in the back of our heads. However,
• 23:39
  Speaker 8: you know, waking up and seeing something like that, you know,
• 23:42
  Speaker 8: kind of burns it right back there.
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: Benjamin Emmerling had these anti-Semitic flyers placed on his front
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: yard in Berkeley a few months ago. One of them saying,
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: brought to you by your local Nazis. On Monday, the
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: same disturbing leaflets were seen in his neighborhood at dozens
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: of homes.
• 23:58
  Speaker 8: Second time around, it's like, come on, how can we,
• 24:01
  Speaker 8: you know, how can we let this happen again?
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: The proud Jewish father, who was walking his young son
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: and dog Monday, also attends Temple Israel in West Bloomfield.
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: He tells me that it has been upsetting seeing the
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: rise in anti-Semitism come to a synagogue and now right
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: up to his doorstep.
• 24:16
  Speaker 9: In the wrong.
• 24:17
  Speaker 8: Hands could get people thinking a certain way about us.
• 24:20
  Speaker 9: That's just not right.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: David Drucker, I think when we get the crosstabs out
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: of Michigan, I don't know who's going to win, but
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: I think the Jewish vote is going to flip significantly
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: from being significantly pro-Democrat to being significantly pro-Mike Rogers.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: What do you think?
• 24:38
  Speaker 6: Well, I think the potential is there for that.
• 24:40
  Speaker 7: I mean, I know from talking to Jewish voters around
• 24:42
  Speaker 7: the country, I know from talking to people in my
• 24:43
  Speaker 7: own family, that some of what these historically Democratic voters
• 24:49
  Speaker 7: have seen from the left wing of the Democratic Party,
• 24:53
  Speaker 7: and including how they've interpreted Abdul El-Sayed.
• 24:56
  Speaker 6: And his candidacy, are very troubling.
• 24:59
  Speaker 7: And so I do think it's possible what you see
• 25:01
  Speaker 7: in Michigan is a significant shift of the Jewish vote.
• 25:04
  Speaker 7: whether they sit on their hands or vote overwhelmingly or
• 25:08
  Speaker 7: in large numbers for Mike Rogers, I still want to see.
• 25:11
  Speaker 7: But I think the likelihood of some significant shift is possible.
• 25:15
  Speaker 7: I think it's possible that El-Sayed is able to offset
• 25:18
  Speaker 7: that with juice numbers in the Arab-American community. The Arab-American
• 25:22
  Speaker 7: community in Michigan is bigger than the Jewish community, as
• 25:25
  Speaker 7: sizable as.
• 25:26
  Speaker 6: It is in Michigan.
• 25:30
  Speaker 7: Younger voters also tend to be quite attracted to to
• 25:34
  Speaker 7: Abdul El-Sayed's candidacy. Abdul El-Sayed also has some problems in
• 25:39
  Speaker 7: the black community. This is more about historic tensions between
• 25:42
  Speaker 7: Arab Americans and black voters, but it's something that could
• 25:46
  Speaker 7: cost him the race if you combine underperformance with other
• 25:51
  Speaker 7: key blocks. So I think this race is really fascinating
• 25:54
  Speaker 7: from a political standpoint, and I think it's hard to
• 25:58
  Speaker 7: make any firm and fast predictions on how this thing's
• 26:01
  Speaker 7: going to go.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: And a quick one, David.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: The black community across the United States has a pretty
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: good turnout machine. It works in L.A., it works in
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: New York, it works everywhere. I don't think it's going
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: to work for him in Detroit.
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: Do you?
• 26:16
  Speaker 6: Well, I don't know.
• 26:18
  Speaker 7: It could in that black voters are overwhelming supporters of
• 26:23
  Speaker 7: the Democratic Party.
• 26:24
  Speaker 6: The question is, what do they do with their vote?
• 26:26
  Speaker 7: Do they split ticket, voting for Benson and Rogers, Benson
• 26:30
  Speaker 7: and sitting on their hands?
• 26:32
  Speaker 6: Let's see what happens.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: It's going to be fascinating. And we should have more
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: to talk about next week.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: David M. Drucker, follow him on exit. David M.
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: Drucker, read him in Bloomberg. Read him in The Dispatch.
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: And stay tuned to The Hugh Hewitt Show. I'll be
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: right back. I'm Hugh Hewitt. The polls have closed in
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: Israel and the exit polls have been published. I am surprised.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Benjamin Netanyahu has the largest party. Likud is projected to
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: get 24 of the 120 seats. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: is expected to get 22, and neither the BB block
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: and the anti-BB block have enough for a majority. The
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Arab parties have got, I think, a total of 18.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: Am I right about that? Seven for Aam and 11
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: for the joint list. 18 of the 120 parties.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: If anyone's going to form a government, if anyone's going
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: to form a government, they would have to form it
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: with Arab votes. And I don't know if any of
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: those parties will agree to do that. But Likud has
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: got the pro-Netanyahu bloc has 50, and the anti-Netanyahu bloc
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: has 52. But since Likud is the largest party, I
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: expect President Herzog to give the first opportunity to form
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: a government to.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: Benjamin Netanyahu.
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: Now, what is interesting to me is that, but Bear
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: joins us now to talk about this.
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: Brett, welcome. What do you make of those results, which
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: I just reported out of Israel?
• 28:07
  Speaker 10: Well, I think it's a nail-biter, and we always knew
• 28:09
  Speaker 10: that it was going to come down to the ability
• 28:12
  Speaker 10: to form a government. And as we know in that system,
• 28:16
  Speaker 10: it's a lot of horse trading at the end about
• 28:19
  Speaker 10: putting a coalition together. Sometimes it's put together like a
• 28:24
  Speaker 10: patchwork on a quilt, and they manage to get the
• 28:29
  Speaker 10: ruling party. if you will, the prime ministership. But I
• 28:36
  Speaker 10: think it's going to be a bumpy ride here to
• 28:39
  Speaker 10: get this coalition government.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: Now, Brett, the reason I think it's impossible for a
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: form of government is because the anti-Netanyahu people have 52 seats.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: If these are right, and they usually are pretty close,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Netanyahu's got 50. The joint list, which are not Zionists,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: they're against the Jewish state. There are 11 members there
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: on the joint list, and there are seven on Rom,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: which has sat in the government before it. So even
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: if you put the 7 with the 52 or the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: 7 with the 50, they don't get the 61. I
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: think Beebe's going to remain prime minister for another election.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: That's my gut thinking, unless the polls are wrong.
• 29:13
  Speaker 10: Yeah.
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: I agree with you.
• 29:16
  Speaker 10: I mean, I think that that's what I'm reading right now.
• 29:19
  Speaker 10: But we got to wait for the final tally. I
• 29:22
  Speaker 10: think that, you know, like our guesstimates on election night,
• 29:28
  Speaker 10: things change. But in Israel, they have been pretty accurate
• 29:31
  Speaker 10: up until, you know, at this point.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: I want to switch over to the American election.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: I want to start with your interview with Abdul El-Sayed
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: last Thursday. This is Hugh Hewitt's opinion, not Brett Baier's opinion.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: I thought in his conversation with you, he was arrogant, evasive,
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: non-responsive and downright rude.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: You're the pro's pro. You kept your cool.
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: Have you ever interviewed a Senate candidate in a tight
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: race and gotten that kind of a reaction?
• 30:00
  Speaker 10: No, not like that. You know, the back story is
• 30:04
  Speaker 10: that I talked to El Zayed on the phone and
• 30:07
  Speaker 10: made my case for equal time. We were going to
• 30:10
  Speaker 10: give Rogers the same amount of time, and he said
• 30:14
  Speaker 10: he would do it. We got to Michigan, and the
• 30:17
  Speaker 10: campaign kind of balked. And I said, you know, you
• 30:22
  Speaker 10: said you'd do it. We kind of already promoted this.
• 30:26
  Speaker 11: And nothing.
• 30:28
  Speaker 10: And the campaign was saying no. And I said, listen,
• 30:30
  Speaker 10: we want to give you a little time. I'll go
• 30:32
  Speaker 10: wherever you are, which is why we went to this
• 30:34
  Speaker 10: diner in Detroit where he was. And the reason it's
• 30:38
  Speaker 10: on the sidewalk is because we went there. And, you know,
• 30:42
  Speaker 10: he was just really, really combative right from the start.
• 30:47
  Speaker 10: I think it's part of, you know, his approach of
• 30:50
  Speaker 10: being combative to questions he doesn't like. You know, I
• 30:53
  Speaker 10: was pointing back to the specifics of the 2012 letter
• 30:56
  Speaker 10: that he signs endorsing, supporting Mohamed Morsi in Egypt, calling
• 31:02
  Speaker 10: for the police to be disbanded and the media to
• 31:05
  Speaker 10: be put aside. And, you know, he just didn't want
• 31:09
  Speaker 10: to hear the question and wanted to get to the charge.
• 31:13
  Speaker 10: He said that Rogers was going after his loyalty to America.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: And when he said, be a journalist, that's insulting, Brett.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: I would have lost my cool. I don't lose my
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: cool very often, but I do when people insult me.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: And so kudos to your professionalism. Let's talk about that race.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: You spent time up in Michigan. New poll out today
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: says El Sayed is up by five points. I don't
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: believe it. I don't believe the Maine poll that says
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: the governor's race there is tied either. I know Maine
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: better than Michigan, but I know them both. And I
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: think Pingree is going to win the governor's race in
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Maine pretty easily.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: But I... I kind of think Mike Rogers is going
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: to win.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: I know you don't make predictions like that, but do
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: you think it's a five-point El-Sayed lead right now?
• 31:53
  Speaker 10: Hard to see five points. I think El-Sayed.
• 31:56
  Speaker 11: Has lost altitude with the black community.
• 31:59
  Speaker 10: And obviously the Jewish community in Michigan.
• 32:02
  Speaker 11: And this ad.
• 32:04
  Speaker 10: With this left-wing pack, rebellion pack, that even Haley Stevens,
• 32:10
  Speaker 10: Sayed's Democratic primary opponent, said is... you know, Israeli anti-Semitic trope, basically,
• 32:18
  Speaker 10: I think turned people off even further in that community.
• 32:22
  Speaker 10: Not that that's a massive number of folks, but I
• 32:26
  Speaker 10: do think that it's at least tighter than that, and
• 32:30
  Speaker 10: I think Rogers could pull it out. There are headwinds, obviously.
• 32:33
  Speaker 10: The inflation... situation. The Iran war does not play well
• 32:38
  Speaker 10: in Michigan. And the tariffs in Canada are uniquely, much
• 32:41
  Speaker 10: like Maine, affect that state more than others.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: Now, I talk to Josh Holden about this often, one
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: of your frequent guests on the panel, and I talk
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: about it with pretty much everyone. But President Trump is
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: a turnout machine. And Matt Continetti began the program today.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: I asked him, have you ever seen a president or
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: recall a president working this hard in a midterm? And
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: he said, Britt Hume had told him Bill Clinton worked
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: pretty hard in 94. Well, I went to chat GBT.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Bill Clinton did 16 appearances in October and November. I
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: think Trump has beat that this week. I just think
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: he's a machine. Do you recall anyone working this hard,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: whether it's for good or bad, just working this hard?
• 33:22
  Speaker 10: No, I mean, Trump's done that for his own election
• 33:25
  Speaker 10: at the end, you know, these barnstorming tours. But he's
• 33:28
  Speaker 10: He's putting it out there. You know, he's still talking
• 33:30
  Speaker 10: in Corpus Christi, Texas. Clearly thinks that these events are
• 33:35
  Speaker 10: going to move the needle. I tend to agree, especially
• 33:38
  Speaker 10: with the MAGA base in some of these places. You know,
• 33:41
  Speaker 10: some of the channels are saying, well, he's only going
• 33:44
  Speaker 10: to red states. Well, you're going to move a lot
• 33:46
  Speaker 10: of votes in those counties that he's going to, that
• 33:49
  Speaker 10: he won by 15 to 20 points if people are
• 33:53
  Speaker 10: fired up. at these events. So we'll see how it
• 33:57
  Speaker 10: pans out. There are clearly states where he's not going.
• 34:01
  Speaker 10: But on the states that he is going, there's long
• 34:04
  Speaker 10: lines to see President Trump.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: He's going back.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: To Ohio again for John Houston. And I will be
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: interested to watch to see if Vivek Ramaswamy is invited
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: to that. I don't know that Vivek is helping Houston
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: right now.
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: Do you think he is?
• 34:19
  Speaker 10: No, I don't think he is. I think that ad
• 34:20
  Speaker 10: is not helpful. I know the president backed him up
• 34:24
  Speaker 10: and the vice president said what he said, but I
• 34:27
  Speaker 10: don't think on margin that it's helpful. And I think
• 34:32
  Speaker 10: Houston has stayed away from it. Other candidates have been
• 34:35
  Speaker 10: asked about it and have weighed in negatively. That said,
• 34:39
  Speaker 10: I think the Houston race is very close. Sherrod Brown
• 34:42
  Speaker 10: has an advantage. But again, Ohio, you know better than most,
• 34:48
  Speaker 10: traditionally has been read in recent years, and if the
• 34:51
  Speaker 10: president manages to move those votes, those voters to the polls,
• 34:57
  Speaker 10: it could make a one, two, three-point difference. I don't
• 34:59
  Speaker 10: know if he's going to talk about Houston's anatomy anymore,
• 35:02
  Speaker 10: but he's going to.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: Be out there.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, John will be on, Houston will be on the
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: program tomorrow, along with Susan Collins. It's interesting, President Trump
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: doesn't go to New Hampshire, doesn't go to Maine. does
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: go to Ohio because he won it by 11 points.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: And he goes to the Steel Valley, which is my
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: home neck of the woods. And it went from deep
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: blue to deep red in the blink of an eye
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: because of Donald Trump. Let me close, Brett, by asking
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: you about Alaska. Now, the president went a long way
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: to get to Alaska to campaign for Dan Sullivan. Mostly,
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: I consider that not to be turnout so much as
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: voter education. And Dan Sullivan is ending with the message,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: don't rank Mary.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Mary Peltola.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: He doesn't want her ranked in the ranked choice voting.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Think that message is simple and short enough and backed
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: up by the president will work?
• 35:49
  Speaker 6: Maybe.
• 35:50
  Speaker 11: I think it's tough.
• 35:52
  Speaker 10: A lot of people are criticizing this lawsuit, potential lawsuits,
• 35:56
  Speaker 10: depending on how Alaska votes with the other Dan Sullivan
• 36:01
  Speaker 10: on the ballot. You know, legally, there are real questions about,
• 36:06
  Speaker 10: you know.
• 36:07
  Speaker 11: How it goes and what will happen.
• 36:10
  Speaker 10: But politically, you know, it's interesting because it's getting a lot.
• 36:14
  Speaker 11: Of coverage in Alaska, this lawsuit, and.
• 36:16
  Speaker 10: Thereby raising people's awareness to not that there be dumb
• 36:21
  Speaker 10: and say, oh, the incumbent next to the name is
• 36:24
  Speaker 10: not the senator. But it does raise awareness of which
• 36:28
  Speaker 10: Sullivan it is. I think it's a tough race out
• 36:31
  Speaker 10: there in Alaska. And that may be one that determines
• 36:36
  Speaker 10: the control of the Senate, which might be, you know,
• 36:39
  Speaker 10: several days after election night.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: A late night at least on Tuesday night. Brett Baer
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: will be watching you tonight at 6 p.m. on Special Report,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: America's news channel at 6 p.m. in the prime time
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: on the cable world. And thank you, Brett, for joining me.
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: Good job in Michigan last week.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: Not all of us. Would have been that professional. Certainly
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: not me.
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: Brett Baer, thank you. Follow my next as well, Brett Baer.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: By the way, Channel 11's exit poll give Lacoud 25 seats.
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: Channel 13 gives him 25. Channel 12 gives him 24.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: So who knows? Stay tuned. Welcome back, America.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: I'm Hugh Hewitt, joined by Senator Tom Cotton, who is
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, member of the Senate
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Armed Services Committee, also the conference chair of the Republicans
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: in the Senate, and in an election campaign himself. You
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: go to the polls in a week. How's it feel
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: in Arkansas, Senator Cotton?
• 37:47
  Speaker 11: Thank you.
• 37:47
  Speaker 9: It's good to be on with you. I think we're
• 37:48
  Speaker 9: going to have a good victory here in Arkansas. Hugh,
• 37:50
  Speaker 9: I think we're going to have a good victory all
• 37:52
  Speaker 9: around the country as well. We've got great senators like
• 37:55
  Speaker 9: Susan Collins, John Husted, Dan Sullivan on the trail. We've
• 37:58
  Speaker 9: got great candidates like Ashley Hinson, Mike Rogers, and others
• 38:01
  Speaker 9: out on the trail making the case that keeping Republicans
• 38:05
  Speaker 9: in power means a strong and growing economy, more money
• 38:09
  Speaker 9: in your pocket after historic tax cuts with more to come,
• 38:13
  Speaker 9: secure border, safer communities, and a proud, strong America. If
• 38:16
  Speaker 9: you put the Democrats.
• 38:17
  Speaker 10: In power, no matter what they may say on the campaign.
• 38:19
  Speaker 9: Trail, you are going to hand over the keys in
• 38:23
  Speaker 9: Washington to radical socialists.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Senator Cotton, the public polling has been all over the place. Today,
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: for example, a poll in Maine showed the governor's race tied.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: I don't believe that. I think Pingree is ahead up there.
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: And it showed El-Said up by five points in Michigan.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: I don't believe that either. It's a dead heat. And
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: I think, Mike Rogers, there's a shy Rogers vote up there.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: What do you think about the polls this cycle? Are
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: people just refusing to talk to him?
• 38:52
  Speaker 9: I can't really say for sure. I've heard plenty of
• 38:54
  Speaker 9: reports across the state in the last month, though, that
• 38:56
  Speaker 9: Republicans don't want to answer polls. They get a text
• 38:59
  Speaker 9: message or they get a phone call and they just
• 39:00
  Speaker 9: hang up or don't respond. I will say that I'm
• 39:04
  Speaker 9: very confident Susan Collins is going to win. I think
• 39:07
  Speaker 9: her polling, like so many races around the state or
• 39:11
  Speaker 9: around the country, are neck and neck. And both sides
• 39:13
  Speaker 9: below 50. Well, in 2020, Susan Collins, I think, was
• 39:16
  Speaker 9: down nine points in the polling averages going into the election.
• 39:20
  Speaker 9: And she ended up winning with 50 percent or more
• 39:24
  Speaker 9: in the first round of their crooked rank choice voting.
• 39:26
  Speaker 9: So Susan Collins is going to win there. And Mike
• 39:28
  Speaker 9: Rogers is going to win in Michigan.
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: Absolutely.
• 39:30
  Speaker 9: El-Sayed is a radical socialist and terrorist sympathizer. He gets
• 39:35
  Speaker 9: his back up that people ask him to renounce the
• 39:40
  Speaker 9: Muslim Brotherhood, the intellectual forerunner of terrorist groups like.
• 39:44
  Speaker 11: al-Qaeda and ISIS.
• 39:46
  Speaker 9: And he condemns it as an attack on his religious
• 39:48
  Speaker 9: liberty and the First Amendment, even though it's just ordinary
• 39:51
  Speaker 9: Michiganders asking the question. If he doesn't want to be
• 39:54
  Speaker 9: asked the question, he probably should renounce the Muslim Brotherhood.
• 39:58
  Speaker 9: I guess he doesn't want to because it seems like
• 40:01
  Speaker 9: every member of his family, both by blood and by marriage,
• 40:05
  Speaker 9: is associated with the Muslim Brotherhood or affiliated with it
• 40:09
  Speaker 9: or defends and advocates for it. Michiganders are not going
• 40:11
  Speaker 9: to let Abdul El-Sayed go.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: I think that's the case. I want to ask one
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: more question about him. Senate's a small place.
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: You know everyone. It's clubby.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: That's the term that's usually used, clubby. I'm sure you
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: talk and exchange pleasantries with someone as far removed from
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: you on the political realm as Bernie Sanders, but I
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: don't think El Sayed's going to have many friends in
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: the Senate.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: What do you think?
• 40:37
  Speaker 9: Well, I don't think he's going to have any friends
• 40:38
  Speaker 9: in the Senate either, Hugh, because he's not going to
• 40:40
  Speaker 9: be in the Senate.
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: That was kind of an underhand toss. Yeah, that's the
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: right answer.
• 40:45
  Speaker 9: Maybe some of those Democrats who have gone to campaign
• 40:47
  Speaker 9: for him and basically act as human heat shields in
• 40:51
  Speaker 9: front of a socialist terrorist sympathizer. We'll stay in touch
• 40:55
  Speaker 9: with him. But I think most of them, frankly, if
• 40:57
  Speaker 9: you put them under truth serum view, up to including
• 40:59
  Speaker 9: Chuck Schumer, were disappointed that Michigan primary Democrats saddled them
• 41:05
  Speaker 9: with such a badly flawed nominee. But no, he's not
• 41:09
  Speaker 9: going to be in the Senate, so I doubt he'll
• 41:10
  Speaker 9: have many friends in the Senate.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: Now, you serve on armed services with Dan Sullivan, and
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: President Trump went up to Alaska just to try and
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: do voter education. It wouldn't even turn out. All quarter
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: million voters turn out up there. But they've got the
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: dirty trick Dan Sullivan on the ballot, the decoy Dan Sullivan.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: They've got the real Dan Sullivan. Do you think the
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: president's visit up there will help make it very crystal
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: clear that Senator Dan Sullivan, the incumbent, is the one
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: they want to vote for?
• 41:36
  Speaker 11: I certainly hope so, Hugh.
• 41:40
  Speaker 9: Alaska also has a crooked ranked choice voting system. And
• 41:45
  Speaker 9: if that's not enough, as you said, Chuck Schumer, the Democrats,
• 41:47
  Speaker 9: recruited another guy named Dan Sullivan to run. It's bad
• 41:50
  Speaker 9: enough that in some states, Hugh, like in Nebraska or
• 41:54
  Speaker 9: Montana or South Dakota, Idaho, the Democrats are running fake
• 41:57
  Speaker 9: independents because the Democratic reputation is so badly stained. It's
• 42:02
  Speaker 9: even worse in Alaska. They're running a literal imposter. I
• 42:06
  Speaker 9: don't think that's going to fool Alaskans. They remember that
• 42:10
  Speaker 9: when the Democrats were in charge, Alaska was essentially treated
• 42:13
  Speaker 9: like a hostile power. And as Dan Sullivan has said,
• 42:16
  Speaker 9: that the Biden administration imposed repeated sanctions on Alaska's economy
• 42:21
  Speaker 9: and their way of life. And thanks to the Trump administration,
• 42:24
  Speaker 9: thanks to the strong advocacy of Dan Sullivan in the Senate,
• 42:27
  Speaker 9: helping all senators understand Alaska's unique and peculiar challenges, the
• 42:32
  Speaker 9: people of Alaska are going to send him back.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: All right, so I want to close by talking about
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Democrats trying to panic Republicans by saying Kansas is close,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: Mississippi is close, South Carolina is close.
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: I don't believe any of that. I really don't.
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: I think people are aware that this election matters a
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: great deal. Do you share my optimism for those three states?
• 42:52
  Speaker 9: I share your optimism for those states and the other states, Hugh,
• 42:55
  Speaker 9: but I will say this. Democrats are supremely motivated right now,
• 42:59
  Speaker 9: and we've been in early voting now since last Monday
• 43:01
  Speaker 9: in Arkansas. We saw the exact same pattern here, Hugh,
• 43:04
  Speaker 9: that we've seen in.
• 43:05
  Speaker 11: Many other states.
• 43:06
  Speaker 9: The Democrats surged to the polls on the first day.
• 43:09
  Speaker 9: They were probably lined up around the corner in certain
• 43:12
  Speaker 9: Democratic pockets. of Arkansas at 5 a.m. in the morning,
• 43:16
  Speaker 9: waiting for the polls to open. But every day since,
• 43:18
  Speaker 9: the early vote has gotten steadily more Republican. We need
• 43:21
  Speaker 9: that to happen in all the states with competitive Senate races,
• 43:25
  Speaker 9: gubernatorial races, and House races. Don't let the Democrats beat
• 43:30
  Speaker 9: you in getting out to vote. Make sure that you
• 43:32
  Speaker 9: get out to vote yourself and that you encourage those
• 43:35
  Speaker 9: around you, your neighbors, your coworkers, your family members, your
• 43:38
  Speaker 9: church members, to go vote as well by reminding them
• 43:41
  Speaker 9: of the stakes of this election.
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: And an exit question on the Israeli elections. I'm surprised
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: that Benjamin Netanyahu has won the biggest party, either 24
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: or 25 seats in the Knesset ahead of Gadi Eizenkot.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: That means he'll probably get the chance to form a government.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: But no one can form a government because there are
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: 10 or 11 seats going to the joint list, which
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: is anti-Zionist. I think Benjamin Netanyahu is going to remain
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: the prime minister for another round of elections.
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: What do you think?
• 44:11
  Speaker 9: Well, I just caught a brief glimpse of some exit
• 44:13
  Speaker 9: polls before I came on there with ECU. So from
• 44:16
  Speaker 9: what I saw, it does seem that.
• 44:19
  Speaker 9: The Prime Minister's party, Likud, will have the most number
• 44:22
  Speaker 9: of votes. It also does seem like it might be
• 44:24
  Speaker 9: hard for anyone to get over the 60-vote threshold. I
• 44:28
  Speaker 9: think it's important for your audience to understand that their
• 44:32
  Speaker 9: elections are very different. For us, our election ends next
• 44:36
  Speaker 9: Tuesday night. We hope, except for the crooked ranked-choice voting
• 44:39
  Speaker 9: system in places like Alaska and Maine and California's internal elections.
• 44:43
  Speaker 9: But for the most part, our election ends on Election Day.
• 44:47
  Speaker 9: In Israel, Election Day is really just the beginning of
• 44:51
  Speaker 9: the full campaign, which is the negotiations to put together
• 44:55
  Speaker 9: a majority coalition in their parliament. And whether the prime
• 45:00
  Speaker 9: minister will be able to do that or not, we
• 45:02
  Speaker 9: may not know for many months. But I know that
• 45:04
  Speaker 9: he'll continue to be a strong leader for Israel and
• 45:07
  Speaker 9: America's best friend in the Middle East.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: Amen to that.
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: Tom Cotton, Senator from Arkansas, thank you for joining me.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: I'll be right back.
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: Stay tuned to the Hugh Hewitt Show. Hi, it's Hugh
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  Speaker 2: Or visit usmedicalplan.com. Welcome back, America. I'm Hugh Hewitt, joined
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: by Byron York.
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: He is the Washington Examiner's Chief Political Correspondent. He's a
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: Fox News contributor as well. Byron, welcome back. I am wondering, Byron,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: the Israeli election had enormous turnout, just enormous turnout, and
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: no one saw that coming. Do you think the same
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: thing might happen here in our midterm, which is normally
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: kind of sleepy?
• 47:53
  Speaker 12: Well, they are normally sleepy, but the one thing we
• 47:55
  Speaker 12: do know is that President Trump has a tremendous power
• 48:01
  Speaker 12: to fire up people. And he has a tremendous power
• 48:06
  Speaker 12: to fire up his own side. And bad news for Republicans,
• 48:11
  Speaker 12: he does have a power to fire up the other
• 48:13
  Speaker 12: side to turn out as well. So if both of
• 48:17
  Speaker 12: those powers are in effect this time, you could see
• 48:20
  Speaker 12: some pretty serious turnout. I traveled with him, with the president,
• 48:27
  Speaker 12: to Iowa last Thursday. And we went to, it was
• 48:33
  Speaker 12: outside Sioux City, And it was a congressional district where
• 48:37
  Speaker 12: Trump won by 31 points in 2024. And so you've
• 48:42
  Speaker 12: probably heard some mockery of Trump for going deep red places,
• 48:46
  Speaker 12: or it must show that Republicans are in terrible, terrible trouble.
• 48:50
  Speaker 12: And I spoke to the chairman of the Republican Party there,
• 48:52
  Speaker 12: and he said, you know, it's really all about low
• 48:54
  Speaker 12: propensity voters. There's a significant number of voters who did
• 48:58
  Speaker 12: not vote in 2020. They didn't vote in 2022, but
• 49:00
  Speaker 12: they did vote. when Donald Trump was on the ballot
• 49:05
  Speaker 12: in 2024. So when Trump says, please pretend like I'm
• 49:10
  Speaker 12: on the ballot and Democrats scoff at that, that's actually
• 49:14
  Speaker 12: a considered strategy. Because if those voters actually do vote
• 49:20
  Speaker 12: like Trump is on the ballot, then he'll probably do better,
• 49:25
  Speaker 12: because when he won by 31, that helped statewide Republican
• 49:30
  Speaker 12: candidates win all across Iowa.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: And if you want to prevent nasty surprises, then go
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: to Kansas, go to Mississippi, go to South Carolina. juice
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: your base and then close in Ohio and Michigan. That's
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: where you want to close because those are two, maybe
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: even Minnesota in the iron range, Byron. I haven't seen
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: his schedule for next week other than he is going
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: back to Ohio to help out John Houston. Do you
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: expect Vivek Ramaswamy is going to be on the stage
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: when he's there with John Houston?
• 50:00
  Speaker 12: Boy, you know, I tell you, I know Trump went out, um, um,
• 50:04
  Speaker 12: you know, in full support of, uh, Vivek Ramaswamy's ad
• 50:09
  Speaker 12: about Amy Acton's mother and all that. And Trump was
• 50:13
  Speaker 12: really pretty staunch on that. But a lot of Republicans,
• 50:17
  Speaker 12: including John Husted, were kind of running from it. And
• 50:23
  Speaker 12: my feeling is, my experience just watching Ramaswamy in the
• 50:28
  Speaker 12: presidential race of Trump is that he really had the
• 50:33
  Speaker 12: power to alienate people fairly quickly. He could impress the
• 50:37
  Speaker 12: heck out of somebody, and then by about half an
• 50:40
  Speaker 12: hour later, maybe he was wearing a little thin on them.
• 50:43
  Speaker 12: And I'm wondering if that may not have just happened
• 50:48
  Speaker 12: in the Ohio governor's race.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: I'm from Ohio, Byron, and I have the same judgment issue.
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: I've got family back there, and they don't like Vivek.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: I'd vote for him.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: I'd vote for him in a second because Amy Acton
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: doesn't know what she's doing and is erratic.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: But I did not like that ad. I just didn't
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: like that ad.
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: And I think the reason it was in the box
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: for so long, maybe it was a lab leak, someone
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: let it out, is because it strikes most normal people
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: as just ridiculous, that that's not a credible person who's talking.
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: And it's his mom. It's her mom, yes, but it
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: wasn't persuasive. Now, the second bit of news from Israel,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: the only country that loves polling people elections more than
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: we do, is Israel. I mean, they've got like 30,000 polls, and.
• 51:35
  Speaker 11: They were all wrong.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: Likud is the number one party.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: It's wrong, but they're up by anywhere from two to
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: three or four, and one exit poll says six votes
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: or Knesset seats.
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: Today, we got two polls.
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: Maine governor race. I was in Maine two weeks ago.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: I was there in September. There is no way that
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Pingree is tied with Bobby Charlton. It's not the case.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: And they say it's tied. Then I go to Michigan,
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: and I lived in Michigan for three years, going to
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: law school. There is no way El Sayed is up
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: six points. It's just not possible. What has happened to
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: this business?
• 52:12
  Speaker 12: Well, I mean, statewide polls, you know, are kind of
• 52:15
  Speaker 12: buyer beware. I mean, they just are. And I think
• 52:18
  Speaker 12: you and I have talked about this. I mean, when
• 52:20
  Speaker 12: I talk about, say, the House of Representatives, You know,
• 52:24
  Speaker 12: I'll look at the president's job approval rating and the
• 52:28
  Speaker 12: generic ballot polling, both of which are questions that have
• 52:32
  Speaker 12: been asked millions of times by millions of pollsters of
• 52:36
  Speaker 12: all levels of credibility, which means that I think, you know,
• 52:40
  Speaker 12: the average tends to be kind of in a reasonable place.
• 52:43
  Speaker 12: But when you look at any single statewide poll, especially,
• 52:48
  Speaker 12: you know, you just can't put too much emphasis on it.
• 52:53
  Speaker 12: And even with the states, what can happen is that
• 52:56
  Speaker 12: some poll like that can pull the average out of whack.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: A little bit.
• 53:01
  Speaker 12: So I'm really, really cautious about polls. And yet we all,
• 53:07
  Speaker 12: I mean, we're all trying to get a feeling for
• 53:09
  Speaker 12: what's happening in a place. Sometimes we haven't been there
• 53:13
  Speaker 12: to actually cover the actual campaign. Maybe we've been there,
• 53:16
  Speaker 12: but not to cover this campaign. So it's very difficult
• 53:21
  Speaker 12: to do.
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: The only one I've covered is Maine.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: And all I can take away from Maine is that
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: everybody knows who Susan Collins is. Everybody, literally everybody has
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: a Susan Collins story. And every town has a pier
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: that's been repaid, a waterfront that has been built, a
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: fire truck station that is brand spanking new because the
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: appropriations roll in. Can you think of a time when
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: a state has turned in, ousted a powerful senator who
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: has done their job for 25 years.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: I don't remember one.
• 53:55
  Speaker 12: No, and I think that's the reason. I mean, I
• 53:56
  Speaker 12: do think that's why she's going to win. Just a
• 53:59
  Speaker 12: couple of examples on top of what you said. Maine
• 54:03
  Speaker 12: gets a lot of its road salt from Canada, was
• 54:09
  Speaker 12: covered by one of the Trump tariffs, and Collins intervened
• 54:15
  Speaker 12: and helped get that taken off the tariff list. So
• 54:19
  Speaker 12: that was a plus there. And then New Balance shoes
• 54:22
  Speaker 12: are made in Maine. And at the end of September,
• 54:26
  Speaker 12: amazingly enough, there was a Pentagon contract for like half
• 54:29
  Speaker 12: a million pair of New Balance shoes. Well, I know
• 54:34
  Speaker 12: they're great shoes. Let's all speak highly of New Balance shoes.
• 54:38
  Speaker 12: But somehow this really great government contract for this big
• 54:42
  Speaker 12: Maine company happened. And so that's the kind of thing
• 54:46
  Speaker 12: that a senator can say, you know, if you elect
• 54:50
  Speaker 12: me again, I'll keep helping us.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: And another destroyer for the Bath Iron Works ended up
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: in the budget. Byron York. Follow him on X at
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: Byron York. See him on Fox News. Read him in
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: the Washington Examiner every single day. Thank you, Byron. I'll
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: be right back on The Hugh Hewitt Show.