Latest / Political Capital with Rob Shaw / #122 - Land Act changes, Sonia Furstenau's riding, BC United ads
Transcript
- 0:02Check Podcasts. Hey everyone, and welcome to Political Capital, your source for
- 0:15all the latest in BC politics. I'm your host, Rob Shaw, coming
- 0:18to you live to tape from the growing check News media empire here in Victoria.
- 0:24A lot to get to this week, so let's not waste time listening
- 0:27to me gibber jabber on. We're going to get right into it with the
- 0:30panel. Jeff and Ali and Jillian are here as always every week. Thank
- 0:35you for being here. We're going to talk about some Land Act changes that
- 0:38have people concerned. Polling numbers, BC Green leader's decision to change ridings,
- 0:43new BC United ad campaign. There's a lot to get in there now.
- 0:48Just we'll start off on the Land Act, which is something we don't really
- 0:52even often hear anything about, but out of nowhere changes proposed in a very
- 0:57fast timeline here have raised some concerns. Basically, this law governs Crown Land
- 1:03that ninety five percent of the province that people apply for permits in ten years
- 1:07to do things like hunt and camp and fish and log and mine and swim
- 1:11and stuff like that. Decisions made by a minister on what we can do
- 1:15now. The government wants to create co decision making models with indigenous governments.
- 1:19Some people are concerned that might lead to land access and so called veto issues,
- 1:26which we can get into. That word is pretty loaded too, So
- 1:30a lot to break down there, Ali, let's start with you. It
- 1:33feels like a lot of criticism starts because nobody's really heard about these proposed legislative
- 1:38changes which are apparently going to happen this spring. Let's start there. Well,
- 1:45that's the big issue. So we should be afraid of how the NDP
- 1:48have rolled this out so secretively, and I'm glad we're talking about it because
- 1:52this might actually be the only awareness that our viewers are going to get about
- 1:55it. And this is absolutely on purpose by the NDP. NDP are pulling
- 2:00a fast one on us. And for anyone says that like this is anti
- 2:05indigenous, that is exactly what the NDP want to make this divisive with accusations
- 2:09that aren't real. But the engagement process isn't real, and that's the big
- 2:14red flag. This is ludicrous when we think about a massive drought coming our
- 2:19way this year and now we would risk water access instability. I've been talking
- 2:23about this potential drought for a while now, mostly because in Alberta Minister Rebecca
- 2:30Schultz has been talking about this in a significant way, and so we're not
- 2:34immune to those challenges that are coming our way as well. But here's the
- 2:38most important thing. The NDP are being very cavalier with our democracy on this
- 2:45issue. So even if you don't think that this is an issue that will
- 2:46impact your life like obviously like land use, it doesn't impact your life for
- 2:52a lot of things. It already has by letting them get away with this
- 2:55without proper debate and consultation. But there's a different between talking about taking action
- 3:01and removing the voter from the process altogether. There is a vague public consultation
- 3:09going on on a kind of obscure part of the government's website. But that's
- 3:13the only thing that any of us have really heard about this until it suddenly
- 3:15made its way into the media, Jillian, If you flip it around,
- 3:19when you talk to indigenous leaders or the minister, the Premier who I tossed
- 3:23a question to about this week, they'll say, look, we got many
- 3:24court cases that have made it clear the government has a duty to consult on
- 3:30anything it does on Crown land. It has to meaningfully try and obtain free
- 3:32prior and inform consent on decisions. You're going to end up consulting or in
- 3:38court with First Nations on their traditional territory anyways, So why not set out
- 3:43a joint decision making process in advance. So that's the kind of counter argument
- 3:46from government. Yeah, exactly, That's what the Minister has been saying that
- 3:52by having that co management and that consent granted up front for land use,
- 3:57that is going to prevent this from playing out in the courts, which can
- 4:00we costly create a lot of uncertainty for business. This way, you know,
- 4:03you do it at the beginning of the process and then everybody can move
- 4:05forward in a way that doesn't you know, put up any roadblocks to whatever
- 4:11project it is going forward. I think that, you know, the other
- 4:15thing that this does is, of course, is sort of bring the land
- 4:17you stack into a line with UNDRIP, which of course all the parties have
- 4:20supported. And so I think, you know, from that perspective, it's
- 4:24not a surprise. We've always known that the implementation of UNDROP is going to
- 4:28be the bigger part of the process after passing the initial Act of the Principles.
- 4:32But I think that there is a lot to be desired with this process,
- 4:36and it runs the risk of creating a lot of unnecessary controversy. We
- 4:41still haven't seen the act, but the fact that we don't know what it
- 4:45looks like and that there hasn't been any public engagement or any meaningful public engagement
- 4:49creates a lot of opportunity or opportunity for conflict and a lot of risk for
- 4:54conflict, especially because I think this is something the government wants to get done
- 4:57and they've really only got one more session to go before where the election comes.
- 5:00So you know, the problem with that is that it puts First Nations
- 5:03at the center of a lot of controversy, whether that's you know, between
- 5:06conservation groups or people who want access to the back country. Cali grazers have
- 5:11raised issues as well as of course resource companies who rely on access to Crown
- 5:15lands to do all of their work. So there's a whole lot of stakeholders
- 5:18that are interested in this and they're feeling a lot of uncertainty and that creates
- 5:23a lot of fear. So, you know, I think the government has
- 5:26a lot to do to sort of reassure people and make sure that the process
- 5:30is successful. If this is something they want to see get done this session.
- 5:32Mm hmm, Jeff. I mean Indigenous groups and governments and leaders have
- 5:36done nothing wrong here, but they get the brunt of kind of the fear
- 5:41and criticism that comes when government fails on their communications efforts something like this.
- 5:46So how do we get around that? And I mean, like, can
- 5:49this thing still land in the spring session with the legislature given what's happened?
- 5:53Do you think or what should the government be thinking about here? I think
- 5:58it can land. I think it has to art with what Minister cullin Nathan
- 6:01Cullen, who is the minister responsible for this is done, which he's acknowledged
- 6:05that the government has communicated suboptimally is the fancy word I'd like to use for
- 6:11it, poorly right, could have done better. It's committed to fixing that.
- 6:15So he's taken every interview he can get, expanding outreach in consultation and
- 6:21extending it further than it had been initially scheduled. I think it's important.
- 6:29There's a lot of talk about this, there's a lot of opinions being thrown
- 6:34around about this issue. I think it's important for folks to know that what
- 6:39this change is not is an overnight veto on ninety five percent of BC lands
- 6:46for First Nations. What the change is is the government is giving itself the
- 6:53power to negotiate joint decision making deals with First Nations about matters affecting First nations.
- 7:00This is every one of these agreements would be subject to public consultation.
- 7:03The government has been actually doing this for years under other acts, most recently
- 7:09under the Declaration Act and also under the former BC Liberal government led by then
- 7:14Minister John Rustad with a number of nations. He's promising to not do any
- 7:18of this. John going to do any of this now. He was at
- 7:20the one at the table the still Cotem Stewardship Agreement, which is a landmark
- 7:26in the whole constitutional decision making around the core question around which is do indigenous
- 7:32governments have the right to exercise authority over title lands as an indigenous right?
- 7:39The constitution is clear, the courts are clear. Every MLA who voted for
- 7:43Drippa was clear, Yes, First Nations do. And if the government communication
- 7:47has made this difficult, they got to fix it because this is important and
- 7:51this is the right thing to do. Yeah, well, it's certainly become
- 7:55a political issue. And the BC Conservatives saying they would actually cancel under which
- 8:01is they're the only political party out there who's saying they would do that.
- 8:03But BC United is saying they don't like this Land Act change and is in
- 8:07something that they're supportive of either. So we will keep an eye on that,
- 8:11because I want to say on that Undrip, if the concern here is
- 8:16about business in the economy, the absolute worst thing that we could do for
- 8:20BC's economy is to rip up Undrip and try to push away First Nations who
- 8:26are leading some of the biggest and most ambitious major projects in BC and sitting
- 8:31them on the sidelines. If you rip up on Drip, like John Russtad
- 8:33says you want to do, this, province won't see a thin dime of
- 8:37private sector investment anytime soon. Okay, all right, let's move on to
- 8:41polling numbers. New numbers from Research Co this week. Maybe not on their
- 8:46own of much value, as we tend to say about polls, but in
- 8:48the totality we look at other polls, it seems to confirm what we're seeing
- 8:52in public sentiment, a meteoric rise of the BC Conservatives at second place in
- 8:58this pool. We've seen that in other polls as well. Voter intention here
- 9:01at twenty five percent, the NDP around forty six percent, BC United at
- 9:05seventeen, and the BC Greens at eleven. And then some voter popularity,
- 9:09which will show you on a graph here showing John Rustad at the Conservatives basically
- 9:15doubling his approval rating in the last eight months, while everyone else is around
- 9:18the same or dropping a little bit, notably Falcon So Jillian. When we
- 9:22put this in context all the other data out there, what's important to note
- 9:26in the sort of trend lines that we're seeing here. Yeah, I mean,
- 9:31I think it really just kind of confirms what we've been talking about for
- 9:33a couple of months. There is a huge gap for any opposition party to
- 9:39catch the NDP. We also got fundraising numbers for the year end this week.
- 9:43MDP is far ahead, almost double the other parties, but the other
- 9:48parties are also doing better than I thought they would be doing. The interesting
- 9:54thing is the Conservatives, they've been way way far behind in fundraising. They're
- 9:56catching up a little bit. They raised about three hundred and thousand dollars in
- 10:01the final quarter of the year, which is better for them, but it's
- 10:03still, you know, it's about half of what the BC Greens raised,
- 10:07it's way less than what BC United and the BCNDP raised, So it's a
- 10:09very tough situation to read. Of course, we've still we're still seen those
- 10:13sort of low issue approval ratings for the government despite the vote intention. So
- 10:18I think this far out from the election, it's a really it's a tough
- 10:22one to say where it's going to go because you know, with even though
- 10:28the Conservatives are rising and they're second in the polls, they just don't have
- 10:31the money to be running a provincial scale campaign. And I think that there's
- 10:35a lot of chance that things could change once we get into the election tooral
- 10:37cyclemm ali the fundraising numbers, Juliane just mentioned the polling numbers. I mean,
- 10:43there's other ways you can split the polls. This one has some numbers
- 10:46on voters who supported the NDP in the last elections wanting to stay with EB,
- 10:52but voters who backed the BC Liberals generally not as enthusiastic demographics. There's
- 10:58also different ways to go at it. What would jump you, well,
- 11:01what Jillian mentioned there on the fundraising numbers, it's super important. This is
- 11:07the difference between the BC United and the BC Conservatives being able to tell voters
- 11:15what are the difference between these two parties? On one side, you have
- 11:18one point one million raised in the last quarter by the BC United. Three
- 11:22hundred thousand is Jillian pointed out for the BC Conservatives. So are the BC
- 11:26Conservatives going to be able to do more with less? Or are they just
- 11:28going to be a blimp in all of this. I can't emphasize enough just
- 11:33how much you need that donor base during a campaign. Let's think about it
- 11:37like an American style campaign here, American presidential elections, even though they have
- 11:43overwhelming support, those candidates drop off because they just run out of money,
- 11:48not because of support, And that could very well be what happens to the
- 11:52BC Conservatives, where they have overwhelming support, momentum is growing, but if
- 11:56they don't have that donor base, they will not be able to compete against
- 12:01the very aggressive ads that I anticipate the BC United's will do. And I
- 12:07know that we're going to get into that topic a little bit later, but
- 12:09it's going to be quite the contrast. Jeff, what do you make of
- 12:16all this? So I'm looking at that research and there's some numbers that beyond
- 12:22the top lines that pop out for me, David Eb's approvals at fifty three
- 12:26percent. You know, we talk about the issue approvals and how low they
- 12:28are. That's not time for change numbers. That's really in contrast to what
- 12:33we're seeing federally, for example, where the Prime Minister's numbers are in the
- 12:37depending on which poll you're looking at, are and the teens to the twenties.
- 12:41Right, So it feels like the move from John Horgan to David Eb
- 12:48at least for now, at this point in time, has satisfied the public's
- 12:54desire for any change in the premier's office. The NDP leads in every demographic
- 13:00in this you know, by age, by by gender, even by a
- 13:03region really strong in the interior and in the North, and is taking it
- 13:07to the opposition. When you have a government that's been in power for as
- 13:11long as the NDP has, you expect it to be the opposite. But
- 13:13that's not what these numbers show. And the one number that I set in
- 13:18numbers that I thought was really interesting was just the voter universe, like who
- 13:22would consider even consider voting for the other parties, BC, Greens, thirty
- 13:28four percent, Conservatives forty one percent. BC United only at thirty three percent,
- 13:33So that's not if you don't have enough potential voters to overtake the NDP's
- 13:43committed voters. That's a tough place to be a few months before an election.
- 13:48In some ways, it's almost it's not great for the NDP to be
- 13:52leading in all demographics in all parts of the province. Almost like nowhere to
- 13:54go but down. We'd be talking this is back. Goodness if they win
- 13:58a majority in the election and say, oh, they lost you know,
- 14:01middle income, middle aged women at some point is you know, it's like
- 14:05that's tough. Respect. This is a great news poll for bcup because this
- 14:11is the great baseline for a comeback story. You know, fifteen percent in
- 14:15the polls, there's no place to go but up. Yeah. The only
- 14:18other thing I'll just mention at the end the discussion about the BC Conservatives in
- 14:22this poll and different supports or lack thereof, of the merger. I feel
- 14:26like that ship a merger with BC United anyways, and some voters wanting that,
- 14:30some not. I feel like that ship is sailed. We're not really
- 14:31talking about it anymore. There's too many candidates out from both parties to slam
- 14:37them together and merge now, and those talks never really materialized, so that
- 14:41I don't think we'll be hearing much more about that, despite you know,
- 14:45some polling numbers there. Let's just go to the carry on from that into
- 14:48what Eli had been talking about. There's a new ad campaign started by BC
- 14:52United in response, I think, to some of these polling numbers, trying
- 14:54to get the United message out. The Falcon message out video so far focused
- 15:01on cost of housing and affordability, a new tagline of United we will fix
- 15:07It, which I actually think is not bad. It's kind of clever putting
- 15:11the party name in a change message like that. I don't know. That
- 15:16was just my initial coming together of it. Videos kind of felt a little
- 15:20flat to me. But let's just quickly go around a is this a good
- 15:24start to what seems like it's got to be a necessary ad campaign? Should
- 15:30the party be doing this now or focusing somewhere else, or what is the
- 15:33best case scenario for it here? Jeff, let's stick with you on that.
- 15:37I think the ads are fine. They're focused on the right issue,
- 15:41which is affordability. To weak flank for the government and something that everyone's concerned
- 15:46about. I'm not sure about kem Falcon wearing a suit and an empty apartment
- 15:50if that's the right look. It was kind of weird, but I wear
- 15:52a hoodie when I'm in that kind of thing. But the other the ad
- 15:56with the groceries, if you're looking at the ads, that was a better
- 15:58one. The slogan they'll fix it, I think it should be fix itself,
- 16:03as in, when they were government, they figured housing would fix itself,
- 16:07and cost of living would fix itself, and healthcare would fix itself.
- 16:11I think their problem isn't the branding, it's the product problem. Kevin Falcon's
- 16:17not resonating with voters. His solutions aren't cutting through, and people remember the
- 16:22record and it's having a hard time digging out from underneath that. Ali,
- 16:26those are all fair, I think criticisms that will be in the minds of
- 16:30some voters. Does this ad campaign, in your mind kind of begin to
- 16:34address those Well, it certainly launches the campaign. So think about this,
- 16:40Kevin Falcon in a room with a thousand people. It's his annual leader's dinner,
- 16:45which is where he premiered these ads and the slogan so this is the
- 16:51start of their campaign. It's probably on track that they are the first ones
- 16:56out of the gate to start campaigning because they need that. And then going
- 17:00back to the fact that our conversation about money, they've started now, which
- 17:06means that they have nine months of advertising and content creation to do. And
- 17:11again this is that difference between where we'll see the BC Conservatives and BC United
- 17:15because the BC United will be able to do all the bells and whistles,
- 17:18they'll be able to put that on the global on check on CTV, on
- 17:23all of it. We're gonna hear radio ads galore because they can afford it,
- 17:27and that will be the difference as to how people will hear more of
- 17:32Kevin Falken's name than John Russtad's name. So potentially though that this is an
- 17:37opportunity for the BC Conservatives to build more of a grassroots campaign, So know
- 17:41that that is coming to your TV very soon, into your radio very soon,
- 17:45because it's going to have to be a very aggressive ad campaign in order
- 17:49to really resonate with people. Additionally, that money could also pay for pivoting
- 17:53ads, so that might be the message that they put out there right now.
- 17:57But with internal poll a and being able to capture a public sentiment on
- 18:03these things. They might then be able to quickly reshoot videos and change course
- 18:08depending on what the hot issue of the day is. The Conservatives, though
- 18:12they seem to be doing okay on their sort of word of mouth. There
- 18:15was some photos of their two piece reaching candidates drawing big, big crowds at
- 18:22events up in Duston Creek and elsewhere. So yeah, but versus you know,
- 18:27yeah, for sure, the United have traditionally done. Yeah. M
- 18:30hm, Jillian, let's bring you in. What do you make of all
- 18:33this? Yeah? I agree with you that I think the TV ads felt
- 18:37a little bit flat. I think they talk about the right issue, which
- 18:40is cost of living, talking about cost of groceries, which is obviously top
- 18:42of mind for people. But I didn't see anything in them that really convinced
- 18:45me that he's the guy to fix it, like their slogan says. I
- 18:49did hear some radio ads that I thought were a little bit more compelling talking
- 18:52about how he was successful and getting the Canada Line belt when he was transportation
- 18:56minister. I think that that's the gap that they need to close. You
- 19:00know, well, they might, you know, it's easy to know what
- 19:03issues that people are unhappy about and they want to see movement on. It's
- 19:07much more difficult to prove to people that you're going to be a better place
- 19:10to fix it. So that's the gap that they need to close right now.
- 19:12Yeah, okay, Well, well we will be watching those videos because
- 19:15we won't be able to get away from them. They'll be blitzing us all
- 19:18over the place with election material from all parties very soon. Let's move to
- 19:22b C Green leader Sonia first Know made the announcement this week she's leaving the
- 19:26Couch and Valley riding. She's won the last two elections to Victoria Beacon Hill,
- 19:30where she'll go up against Cabinet Minister Grace Law. Gillian starting with you
- 19:36on that, any idea why she sort of said she's moving her family,
- 19:41But I think we've all speculated in the past and be a tough riding to
- 19:45keep because her riding was being split in two. But how do we begin
- 19:48to sort of dissect this announcement, do you think? Yeah? Well,
- 19:52you know, I worked for Sonia for a number of years and I think
- 19:55that she is genuine. She's the type of person who's very community oriented and
- 19:59wouldn't feel co stable running somewhere that she isn't really connected to and living in,
- 20:03and she's moving back there. She lived in the riding for twenty years
- 20:06before moving up to Shawn again, so I think that's authentic. I also
- 20:10think, you know, looking at the new electoral boundaries with the changes,
- 20:15Victoria Beacon Hill is sort of more in line with her previous riding with the
- 20:21changes included. Now it's a riding where the Greens come in second. They
- 20:26still have a pretty big gap to close to catch the NDP in that riding,
- 20:30but it really is a horse race between those two parties where voters don't
- 20:33have to worry about voting strategically, and where they haven't had a really strong
- 20:37Green candidate since twenty thirteen when Jane Stirk, the former leader, ran and
- 20:41she you know, had a gap of about four thousand votes in that election.
- 20:45But the difference now, I think is that Sonia first knows proven that
- 20:48she's a winner, she's viable, she's been elected, and that can give
- 20:52a lot of momentum in addition to just the spotlight and the name recognition and
- 20:56all the profile a leader gets during a provincial election. And I think finally
- 21:02it's a very progressive riding. Sonya is a real progressive that's really strong on
- 21:06progressive issues, whether it's you know, climate change and you know some good
- 21:10contrasts with the NDP there with not supporting subsidizing fossil fuels. She's been really
- 21:15vocal on healthcare, other you know, cost of living and progressive issues.
- 21:18So I think any writing where she was going to run, she's going to
- 21:22have to work in given the new landscape. But I don't think it's a
- 21:25it's a bad choice. I think it's you know, it is a strategic
- 21:29one that puts her close to where the central campaign is, where the center
- 21:32of the action is going to be for the provincial election, and I think
- 21:34she has a really strong chance of flipping this one. H good, good
- 21:40point, Jillian Allie, Let's bring you in on it. It feels though,
- 21:45like you know, Victoria Began Hill has a kind of pretty good NDP
- 21:48pedigree. I imagine Carol James, a legend in politics, will be out
- 21:52there with Grace lare. Uh. It's a tough It's still gonna be a
- 21:56tough fight for Sonya first and ho and not not by any means an assured
- 22:00victory. What do you make of her going into kind of NDP territory here,
- 22:06Well, they certainly made this a writing to watch now. Before it
- 22:11was just going to be a shoe and for Grace Law. But now there's
- 22:15an added element of excitement, which in thank you Sonia first note for doing
- 22:18so, because that's just what keeps us going in a campaign strategy sometimes.
- 22:23So I sat here thinking about, like, why why would she do this?
- 22:27And the only reason I can think of is, yes, Jillian,
- 22:30You're absolutely right with the boundary changes. This makes sense. We're seeing political
- 22:36playbooks from before just being torn up. Like we think about Coloonna for example,
- 22:41they have a new riding in Colonna's Center, that's the downtown core of
- 22:47that area that's more left leaning right now it is actually potentially going to be
- 22:52picked up by the NDP, a former center right stronghold. Like none of
- 22:59what worked four years ago is going to work this election cycle. So that's
- 23:03kind of fun. But the only thing I can think of is that Sonia
- 23:08personnel wants to put the Victoria, the Victoria backdrop behind her as she moves
- 23:15forward in this election. Meaning I'm thinking I'm guessing that the Greens are going
- 23:21to be putting forward some very urban focused policies and announcements so that she can
- 23:27compete as not the Vancouver Island champion, but the urban champion and talk about
- 23:34the struggles in Victoria and Vancouver, in Cologna and Prince Georgian Kamloops. So
- 23:40that's my guess, and that if I'm right, it was a really good
- 23:42strategic move. Jeff, let's bring you in. There is a BC Conservative
- 23:49candidate in this riding, Tim Tielman, who actually has done a lot of
- 23:53work as a lawyer on green issues. I've attended anti sitsee events, He's
- 24:00been kind of involved and representing Indigenous environmental concerns too, So that adds.
- 24:07It's another political flavor through this riding. As Ali pointed out, now riding
- 24:12to watch. Yeah, there's crossover between those two parties in kind of the
- 24:21area that you've just flanked there. And I wouldn't discount the strength of Conservatives
- 24:27on Vancouver Island. You look at Pierre Pollieva come into the island. He's
- 24:33coming for a reason because he's there's wind in his sails federally, and there's
- 24:38strong you know, there's strong indications that he's picking up support on the island,
- 24:45so I wouldn't rule out Conservatives in any riding on the island, maybe
- 24:52less so in Victoria. I think they're probably weakest in Victoria, but elsewhere
- 24:56in the island Conservatives are strong. Look Sonia First to Know is a strong
- 25:02legislator. She's got a ton of experience, she's got name recognition, and
- 25:07she can run where she pleases. So that's democracy, that's her right.
- 25:11I wish her luck in Victoria. I also want to point out, though,
- 25:15that she's going up against Grace Lare, who is a strong, hardworking,
- 25:19progressive, climate focused MLA who is in cabinet, strong community links,
- 25:26a very strong donor and volunteer base, one with a twenty five point margin
- 25:30of victory in twenty twenty, with more a greater percentage of the vote than
- 25:33Carol James got. So this will be a big hill to climb for First
- 25:41to Know. She looks to flip it. If I'm a green strategist,
- 25:47I'm worried about a couple of signals that this decision sends. I think one
- 25:55it displays some panic. It feels to me like a retreat into Victoria because
- 26:03out of a sense of I can't win anywhere else other than Victoria, certainly
- 26:07not in her own riding. And you know, God, God, God
- 26:11loved Victoria. You've got great designer donuts. But this is politics. And
- 26:17the only reason that a party leader switches ridings like this is that they've looked
- 26:22at the numbers where they're running before and they're like, I'm going to lose.
- 26:26I got to run somewhere else and I you know, taken on Grace
- 26:32Lare when you have opportunities to take on Kevin Falcon and John Rustad and other
- 26:36ridings. Is not a great look for someone who's saying, you know,
- 26:41climate is the big issue, and there's you know, you can criticize the
- 26:44NDP and and Jillian talked about fossil fuel subsidies, but you know, Kevin
- 26:49Falcon and John Rustad are going to tear up the province's climate plan that the
- 26:55Greens helped create. You would think that that would be the focus instead of
- 26:57Grace Low. But it'll be interesting. We'll see how see it goes,
- 27:00if it's going to be a success or Animi Paul in downtown Toronto. Yeah,
- 27:06I mean the other the riding that she would have had to stay in
- 27:08to be in Shawnigan Lake, which is divided up and now is a weird
- 27:11looking riding. It comes down south through the Malahat, it avoids Langford,
- 27:17which will be its own kind of ridings now where we're expecting Ravi Palmar to
- 27:22sort of continue to run, comes down to Souk and then heads out west
- 27:26to Port Renfrew, areas where Sonia first know, had never campaigned before,
- 27:30and I think areas that we may see, you know, both strong new
- 27:36Democrat and some strong kind of conservative there. So I guess that that must
- 27:41have factored into it, although she wasn't really lighting on about that in the
- 27:45press conference. So the Greens in general any more thoughts on that. I
- 27:49mean, Adam Olson seems like he's probably in a good spot in Sanich North
- 27:53in the Islands, very a lot of people looking at West Vancouver Seed the
- 27:59Sky, which they almost won in the last election. That's and George Sturdy,
- 28:03the incumbent, is not running again. That seems like a really really
- 28:06positive almost pick up spot for them. And then Nelson Creston, which is
- 28:10has been a hotbed not just because certain strategic geniuses happen to live in that
- 28:15area for the Greens. But but you know, the Greens have they have
- 28:19some upside in the election. They could they could pick up a couple of
- 28:22seats, or they could they could be decimated. They're sort of they're kind
- 28:26of, you know, on the fence on either way there. So I
- 28:30think there's an opportunity. I think there's an opportunity. I'll be really brief
- 28:33and then I'll Jillie, I know you want to jump in, but I
- 28:36think there's an opportunity. We've talked on the show about how the summer is
- 28:40likely going to be a tough one for all sorts of climate issues. They'll
- 28:41be top of mind. The party's won seats in a number of elections.
- 28:47Olson and First to Know were good legislators. I think there's absolutely an opportunity
- 28:52for the Green too, do you think Yeah, I think those writings that
- 28:55you laid out Rober are definitely going to be the top four that they're targeting.
- 29:00I think that they have some other things going for them. They had
- 29:04a good fundraising quarter we just talked about. I think it was their highest
- 29:07fourth quarter ever raised over half a million dollars, which for only having two
- 29:12MLAs I think is pretty impressive and something that they've got to be happy about.
- 29:18They raised like one point two million dollars, which is another record,
- 29:21and talked to their campaign director yesterday and she said that they had a huge
- 29:25flood of donations when Sonia announced her candidacy in Victoria. So I think they
- 29:30have some you know, some good pieces there as well as you know,
- 29:34I think the strategic voting thing, which always hurts them, I think this
- 29:40vote on the right being split, especially in places like Victoria, helps Like
- 29:44we talk a lot about it helping the NDP, which obviously when you look
- 29:47at the polling numbers, it has. But I think it helps them a
- 29:48little bit too in some of these ridings where the NDP has used sort of
- 29:52the threat of the right to scare some of those like Green and DP swing
- 29:57voters, because it just sort of makes it less less easy to make that
- 30:03argument to voters less plausible. So I think those I think they also have
- 30:07a really strong candidate in Oak Bay Gordon Head Lisa Gunderson, who's awesome,
- 30:12and there's obviously enough voters in that riding to flip that seat because they've done
- 30:18it a couple of times when Weaver was in. And you know there's that
- 30:22issue dissatisfaction too, which creates a really different landscape than we had in twenty
- 30:27twenty where it was really you know, a COVID referendum. So yeah,
- 30:33I think, like Ali said, Adamalson tweeted this week that he's expecting to
- 30:37put out some rental policies, So I think that that is definitely going to
- 30:41be part of their strategy targeting younger, more urban voters. Now that both
- 30:45of those are you know, they're ridings that they're looking to address. So
- 30:49yeah, I think there's there's lots of opportunity, lots of work for all
- 30:53three of the opposition parties in the election, but I think they have some
- 30:56good building blocks going into it. And the Greens have a have several people
- 31:03who are very accomplished now municipal campaigners who've gone through and helped run some municipal
- 31:08campaigns around Victoria and the oral campaigns. They know, they know the city,
- 31:12they know the region, they know the people, they know the issues.
- 31:18You know, Sonny first know is not going to get blindsided by Victoria
- 31:21centric issues. It's not like she's coming in out of nowhere. She's going
- 31:23to have a team around her. The only problem with that team is that
- 31:27they also like Grace Lore because she's very progressive but you know, part of
- 31:33the community, and so there's a little bit of that overlap there as well.
- 31:37Well you know who, you know who the Greens should try and recruit
- 31:40as a candidate. Okay, Julian, I think you know where I'm going
- 31:44with former And I said, yeah, that was always a name that got
- 31:49floated around for a while. But no, no, I don't think him.
- 31:55Get him on green, Get him on green law size in Victoria please.
- 31:57I still remember the twenty thirteen election where Ida Chong knew that she wasn't
- 32:05gonna win out big Gordon Head. So the Liberals took out a full page
- 32:07ad in the local paper saying, if you're not going to vote for us,
- 32:10make sure you vote green, just to try to make anyb's chances and
- 32:15they did. Okay, Gordon Head went Green and so that was I was
- 32:20Andrew Weaver. But interesting happen. Yeah, interesting dynamics in the Capitol and
- 32:27some big weight there thrown by Sonia first know. Okay, that is it
- 32:31for the show. Thank you to the panel for being here. Thank you
- 32:35everyone. For listening, make sure you subscribe and we will be back next
- 32:38week with all the latest and BC politics here on Political Capital