Latest / The Morning Edition / A public execution and a Russian deal – will Trump’s midterm distractions work?

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A public execution and a Russian deal – will Trump’s midterm distractions work? · The Morning Edition

• 0:07
  S1: The Pentagon's plans to livestream the execution of a former U.S.
• 0:11
  S1: Army psychiatrist who murdered 13 soldiers at an Army base
• 0:15
  S1: has been met with disbelief in many quarters. Still, this plan,
• 0:20
  S1: which would mark the first U.S. military execution by firing
• 0:23
  S1: squad since the end of World War Two, was overshadowed
• 0:27
  S1: by even more destabilizing announcements by Donald Trump over the
• 0:31
  S1: last week. I'm Samantha Salinger Morris, and you're listening to
• 0:35
  S1: The Morning Edition from The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. Today,
• 0:40
  S1: international and political editor Peter Hartcher on what Trump is
• 0:44
  S1: doing to distract voters from the bashing that Republicans are
• 0:48
  S1: likely to take in the midterm elections in less than
• 0:51
  S1: three weeks. It's October the 15th. Peter, welcome back to
• 0:59
  S1: the podcast.
• 1:01
  S2: Pleasure to be here, Samantha.
• 1:03
  S1: Okay, Peter. Now, we often go through the latest Trump
• 1:05
  S1: announcements or decisions that sort of make us feel like
• 1:08
  S1: we're perhaps living in some sort of twilight zone, but
• 1:11
  S1: the last six days have been something else. So let's
• 1:13
  S1: just start off with this planned live streamed execution, which
• 1:18
  S1: is set to take place on December 3rd. What is happening, Peter?
• 1:22
  S1: Last week, the Pentagon said the public would be able
• 1:24
  S1: to view the execution live. And Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
• 1:28
  S1: has said in an interview that this would be by
• 1:31
  S1: firing squad.
• 1:32
  S3: And we'll make sure that people are able to to
• 1:34
  S3: watch it, that it's public, because people need to understand
• 1:38
  S3: that this is a there's serious consequences for these types
• 1:41
  S3: of things.
• 1:41
  S1: Now, this is just medieval by the sounds of it.
• 1:45
  S1: Why would Trump be wanting this?
• 1:47
  S2: Well, you said, do you feel like sometimes like you're
• 1:49
  S2: living in a twilight zone? This might be twilight zone
• 1:53
  S2: of civilized behavior at least. Uh, why? Well, context is
• 1:59
  S2: three weeks from the US midterm elections. And Donald Trump
• 2:05
  S2: has said, to the chagrin of most of the Republican
• 2:09
  S2: Party to voters, that they should pretend that he is
• 2:12
  S2: on the ballot when, of course he's not. It's a
• 2:14
  S2: congressional and gubernatorial election, not a presidential election. But he's
• 2:20
  S2: doing very poorly. His approval rating is at a record low,
• 2:24
  S2: and the presumption is that Trump is trying to work
• 2:28
  S2: his way out of that difficult position of being a
• 2:31
  S2: major drag on the Republican Party, and a major problem
• 2:36
  S2: for their re-election prospects by trying to distract. On the
• 2:40
  S2: one hand, he is trying to address the underlying problem
• 2:44
  S2: that he has, which is the economic pain he's caused
• 2:48
  S2: the American consumer. And on the other, he seems to
• 2:51
  S2: be wildly thrashing around with distractions. But this takes it
• 2:54
  S2: to a new level. Um, there are very few countries
• 2:56
  S2: in the world that conduct public executions, for example. How
• 3:01
  S2: does this make, in this sense, at least, America, any
• 3:05
  S2: different to Iran, the country that the US is at
• 3:07
  S2: war with? So it certainly has proved a talking point. Uh,
• 3:14
  S2: maybe a distraction, although I don't know if it's the
• 3:17
  S2: right sort of distraction that Trump and the Republican Party
• 3:21
  S2: really need for an election campaign.
• 3:24
  S1: Okay, well, let's get into some of the other distractions
• 3:27
  S1: because there's been numerous, like you've said, some of them,
• 3:30
  S1: you know, seem sort of prone for for laughter, others
• 3:33
  S1: not so much at all. So let's talk about the
• 3:36
  S1: announcement that Trump made just the evening before recording this
• 3:40
  S1: about Russia and China that directly contradicts American intelligence. Tell
• 3:45
  S1: us what he said, Peter.
• 3:47
  S2: Well, Trump has been under pressure for some time over
• 3:51
  S2: the fact that both Russia and China are helping Iran
• 3:55
  S2: in the war, that it's fighting against the US. Now,
• 3:59
  S2: for some reason, Trump has continuously downplayed the evidence which
• 4:04
  S2: comes from US intelligence, among other sources, as well as
• 4:08
  S2: some pretty detailed and specific reporting from The Wall Street Journal,
• 4:13
  S2: The Washington Post and others. He has been trying to
• 4:16
  S2: minimize the Russian and Chinese complicity in Iran's combat capability
• 4:21
  S2: against the US, and he has done it again very
• 4:25
  S2: directly this time, even as the pressures and frustrations of
• 4:30
  S2: his failing war against Iran continue to mount. Trump has
• 4:35
  S2: said in response to a reporter's question that China and
• 4:38
  S2: Russia were not helping Iran. Not at all, he said.
• 4:41
  S2: Or if they are, it's perhaps just at a very
• 4:44
  S2: low level and that if they were, then it would
• 4:48
  S2: all be no good for them, and it will blow
• 4:51
  S2: up on them very badly. But this is the same
• 4:53
  S2: position he's been repeating, even as the evidence mounts, that
• 4:57
  S2: those countries Russia, China are assisting an American enemy waging
• 5:04
  S2: war on the US and killing US personnel.
• 5:08
  S1: So briefly remind us, Peter, the help that China and
• 5:10
  S1: Russia have given to Iran.
• 5:14
  S2: Well, on one level, there's economic support. So Iran really
• 5:18
  S2: has only one major customer now for its oil, and
• 5:20
  S2: that's China. And of course that keeps flowing to Iran.
• 5:25
  S2: Some financial some income for it to remain afloat and
• 5:29
  S2: continue to pay for its war efforts. But both Russia
• 5:33
  S2: and China have given very specific military and military related
• 5:37
  S2: assistance to Iran as well. For example, we know from
• 5:41
  S2: us reporting that China gave targeting information to allow the
• 5:46
  S2: Iranians to launch missile attacks on a US base in Jordan,
• 5:51
  S2: which ended in the deaths of several US personnel. We
• 5:55
  S2: know that Russia has supplied the Iranians with missile components,
• 6:02
  S2: with targeting intelligence. We know that the Chinese regime and
• 6:06
  S2: companies supply the Iranians with a range of dual use
• 6:13
  S2: components and technology, drone engines and other parts, propellants, explosives,
• 6:20
  S2: a range of inputs into their war fighting capability. And
• 6:24
  S2: that's just scratching the surface.
• 6:27
  S1: It's incredible, because I believe Trump has not that long
• 6:29
  S1: ago referred to China and Russia as both neutral with
• 6:33
  S1: regards to their relationship with this war in Iran.
• 6:36
  S2: He has and he had he had XI Jinping rolled
• 6:39
  S2: out the red carpet for XI Jinping in Washington just
• 6:42
  S2: a couple of weeks ago, and apparently failed to bring
• 6:46
  S2: this subject up with him. He was on the telephone
• 6:49
  S2: to Vladimir Putin just a few days ago and apparently, again,
• 6:53
  S2: didn't raise this issue. Uh, he seems to, at the
• 6:58
  S2: very least, be prepared to tacitly accept the fact that
• 7:02
  S2: these leaders, on whom he lavishes so much praise and
• 7:08
  S2: attention are actively helping the country with which the US
• 7:12
  S2: is at war to harm the US, deplete its weaponry,
• 7:17
  S2: defeat its strategy, interrupt the global oil supply, fuel a
• 7:22
  S2: global inflation and cost of living problem, and kill US
• 7:26
  S2: personnel in the process. And he is it? It seems inexplicable.
• 7:31
  S2: Maybe there's some, uh, profound, deep and complex cooperation going
• 7:37
  S2: on that we can't possibly fathom. But on the face
• 7:39
  S2: of it, it looks like a fairly unprincipled, a totally
• 7:44
  S2: unprincipled sellout of the US national interest in waging this
• 7:49
  S2: war against Iran versus the Trump personal interests, whatever it
• 7:53
  S2: may be, in his relationships with these two dictators whom
• 7:57
  S2: he seems to value above all else.
• 8:01
  S1: Which brings me to my next question, Peter, because all
• 8:03
  S1: of this comes off the back of deals that Trump
• 8:07
  S1: has made with Russia over diesel. There's a deal that
• 8:11
  S1: he's announced, which is remarkable, given that this, of course,
• 8:14
  S1: breaks the sanctions that U.S. has put on Russia. Of course,
• 8:17
  S1: as a result of it prosecuting this war against Ukraine.
• 8:21
  S1: So just tell us briefly, I guess, about Trump's deal
• 8:24
  S1: with Russia over diesel and the so-called energy ceasefire that
• 8:28
  S1: he says Russia and Ukraine have agreed to.
• 8:32
  S2: Okay. Well, so there are two parts to that. And
• 8:36
  S2: this this is a part of the sudden flurry of
• 8:39
  S2: panic he seems to have had, realizing that the price
• 8:43
  S2: of fuel, diesel in particular, is stuck at a very
• 8:47
  S2: high level and is not in any way coming down
• 8:51
  S2: as he's looking down the barrel of this rather punishing
• 8:54
  S2: midterm election, and one of the mechanisms he's tried to
• 8:58
  S2: use to bring down the price of oil, or at
• 9:00
  S2: least says that's the purpose of it, is this deal
• 9:03
  S2: he's done with Vladimir Putin, which he announced. The way
• 9:07
  S2: that Trump has presented it is to say that this
• 9:10
  S2: is wonderful news, big important announcement. Vladimir Putin is going
• 9:15
  S2: to release diesel stocks to help bring down the price
• 9:18
  S2: of diesel fuel in the world market. Isn't that wonderful? Now,
• 9:23
  S2: there's a couple of important considerations here, Samantha. One is
• 9:28
  S2: that the quantities in which Putin allegedly has promised to
• 9:33
  S2: release this fuel are trivial and will not make any
• 9:37
  S2: effect on the fuel price and what we see in
• 9:41
  S2: the market since the announcement reflects that Brent crude remains
• 9:45
  S2: at a little over 100 USD a barrel, diesel price
• 9:49
  S2: has not budged within a couple of percentage points. So
• 9:53
  S2: the financial markets are. The actual oil and diesel markets
• 9:59
  S2: show that there is no anticipated real effect whatsoever. However,
• 10:05
  S2: what that means is the the deal with Russia absolves Russia,
• 10:09
  S2: frees Russia from the sanctions which the US led the
• 10:12
  S2: world in imposing on Russia in punishment for Russia's full
• 10:18
  S2: on invasion of Ukraine. So that was designed. Those oil
• 10:23
  S2: sanctions against Russia were designed to choke off some of
• 10:25
  S2: Russia's economic flow, its financial revenues to a. Punish the
• 10:32
  S2: government and B to, uh, to try to cripple the
• 10:37
  S2: Russian war machine. The effect of what Trump has done so, therefore,
• 10:42
  S2: is to make no difference to the oil price yet
• 10:45
  S2: to liberate Russia from the sanctions that it has been
• 10:48
  S2: laboring under. So apart from anything else, apart from all
• 10:52
  S2: the international criticism it's received for its actual effect, which
• 10:57
  S2: is to break Russia free of the of the sanctions
• 11:00
  S2: and to assist it in waging war against Ukraine and
• 11:03
  S2: killing more citizens. Apart from that, there's the fact that
• 11:07
  S2: it's actually illegal under US law, and both Republicans and
• 11:11
  S2: Democrats in the House and the Senate in the US
• 11:15
  S2: have been making this point that they would have to
• 11:17
  S2: change the law to allow this oil or diesel to
• 11:22
  S2: be sold by Russia to the US. So experts have
• 11:26
  S2: even posited to me that the Trump people didn't even
• 11:29
  S2: realize it was against the law, because their negotiators are
• 11:32
  S2: a property developer from New York and an unofficial unattached official,
• 11:38
  S2: Jared Kushner, who is Trump's son in law. So there's
• 11:40
  S2: a question mark over whether they even realized what they
• 11:43
  S2: were doing was actually illegal in US law.
• 11:45
  S1: I mean, it's crazy, isn't it? I mean, I've read
• 11:47
  S1: that this this could pour billions of dollars into the
• 11:50
  S1: Russian economy, which of course would just help it fuel
• 11:52
  S1: the war machine and in its war against Ukraine, and
• 11:55
  S1: that if Trump wanted to, he could have got diesel
• 11:58
  S1: far cheaper and at a far greater amount from Canada. Right.
• 12:01
  S1: But of course, Canada hasn't had the enemy. Russia's near
• 12:03
  S1: the ally.
• 12:04
  S2: Exactly. He seems only to be interested in aiding and
• 12:08
  S2: abetting America's traditional enemies, who he seems to regard as
• 12:12
  S2: his personal friends.
• 12:19
  S1: We'll be right back. And then tell us about this
• 12:24
  S1: so-called energy ceasefire that he says Russia and Ukraine have struck.
• 12:29
  S2: Yes, he came up with the term energy ceasefire that
• 12:33
  S2: he declared had occurred between Ukraine and Russia, which would
• 12:37
  S2: mean that each of them would suspend any attacks on
• 12:40
  S2: the other's energy or oil related infrastructure, thereby protecting what
• 12:45
  S2: oil flow oil supply there is. The problem with that
• 12:49
  S2: is that it is a complete fantasy. It never existed
• 12:52
  S2: except in a truth social post that Trump put up.
• 12:57
  S2: They've always. Those posts have always had a limited contact
• 13:00
  S2: with reality. This one has had zero. Not only did the, uh,
• 13:06
  S2: the Kremlin remain silent in response, and not only did Zelensky,
• 13:12
  S2: the Ukrainian president, tell us that it was, quote, news
• 13:16
  S2: to everyone reading it in in Trump's social media post,
• 13:21
  S2: but within hours, Putin was actively bombing Ukrainian oil facilities,
• 13:25
  S2: showing complete contempt.
• 13:27
  S1: So if the energy cease fire plan that Trump has
• 13:30
  S1: said that Russia and Ukraine have struck is a fantasy,
• 13:34
  S1: let's just return for a moment to the diesel plan
• 13:37
  S1: that Trump has said he struck with Russia because plenty
• 13:41
  S1: of people are absolutely incredulous over this so-called deal. You
• 13:45
  S1: and I were discussing earlier that, uh, former NATO commander
• 13:48
  S1: Richard Shirreff has gone so far as to say that
• 13:51
  S1: it is an act of treachery, that it is treasonous. So, Peter,
• 13:55
  S1: what say you? Could this be treason? And if so,
• 13:58
  S1: is this actually something that the Democrats could weaponize? Could
• 14:01
  S1: they use this in their favor in their bid for
• 14:04
  S1: control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in
• 14:07
  S1: the midterm elections, which, as you've said, are less than
• 14:10
  S1: three weeks away?
• 14:13
  S2: Well, I don't think Trump needs a lot of help
• 14:15
  S2: from the Democrats for the Republicans to lose this election.
• 14:19
  S2: He's doing a splendid job. All himself. Um, and, uh,
• 14:24
  S2: in fact, the Democrats are remained deeply unimpressive political force divided, incoherent,
• 14:32
  S2: unable to really, uh, deliver any devastating campaign against the Republicans.
• 14:41
  S2: Trump's doing it all for them, calling him treasonous. Well,
• 14:45
  S2: treasonous to what? It's difficult to argue that it's treasonous
• 14:49
  S2: to the US itself, partly because the assistance given is
• 14:56
  S2: being given to Russia in a war against Ukraine, which
• 15:01
  S2: it's up to the US president to decide who he's
• 15:05
  S2: supporting there. So treason would be, I think, an overstatement.
• 15:09
  S2: But it does recall that the comment for which former
• 15:14
  S2: Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd got into so much trouble
• 15:17
  S2: for years ago, was calling Trump a traitor to the West.
• 15:22
  S2: And in that sense, I think I think that's pretty
• 15:25
  S2: much unarguable that Trump is, in fact, a traitor to
• 15:29
  S2: the West in the way that he has very deliberately
• 15:33
  S2: removed supporting structures in the Western alliance, in the in
• 15:38
  S2: the alliance system, while doing favors for aiding and abetting
• 15:43
  S2: Vladimir Putin, XI Jinping, Kim Jong un, with the exception
• 15:47
  S2: of Iran, he has been assisting all of those traditional
• 15:52
  S2: US enemies while degrading or downgrading alliances with traditional US friends,
• 16:01
  S2: and that has undercut the security and political infrastructure of
• 16:06
  S2: the Western alliance. In that sense, uh, as a traitor
• 16:10
  S2: to the West, I think that is probably perfectly applicable.
• 16:15
  S1: And so do you think we're watching Trump self-destruct in
• 16:18
  S1: real time? Because you wrote in your recent column that
• 16:21
  S1: he has been thrashing. Right? He's been thrashing, uh, as
• 16:24
  S1: if to somehow escape the fate that awaits him in
• 16:26
  S1: in these midterm elections. So is he self-destructing now, Peter?
• 16:31
  S1: Is he is he really going over the edge?
• 16:34
  S2: Well, what's really hurt him most of all is, is
• 16:40
  S2: his war in Iran. Was he very casually entered into by,
• 16:44
  S2: as you know, after listening, after bringing his inner cabinet
• 16:47
  S2: to listen to Benjamin Netanyahu for an hour to pitch
• 16:50
  S2: the war and to invite Trump to join him in
• 16:53
  S2: waging this war against Iran. The New York Times reporting,
• 16:56
  S2: which has never been denied. We see Trump sitting back
• 16:59
  S2: in his chair and saying to the assembled in a
• 17:03
  S2: cabinet and with Netanyahu in the room, sounds good to me. Now,
• 17:08
  S2: once he crossed that threshold so casually and brushed aside military,
• 17:12
  S2: the offer of military advice on what to do about
• 17:14
  S2: the Strait of Hormuz because he said it was unnecessary
• 17:17
  S2: being the strategic expert that he is, that that really
• 17:22
  S2: was the threshold moment because that then set in train
• 17:25
  S2: the Iran war, which has created all the conditions, the
• 17:29
  S2: difficult living conditions for the US public to which they
• 17:32
  S2: are now reacting. So price of petrol, diesel, fertiliser, that's
• 17:37
  S2: all gone up, which in turn has not only caused
• 17:40
  S2: pain at the bowser, of course, but also generated this
• 17:43
  S2: wave of rising and persistent inflation. And that in turn
• 17:48
  S2: has generated higher levels of interest rates designed to suppress
• 17:51
  S2: the inflation. So all of that, that three tiered pain
• 17:55
  S2: that's being felt by the American consumer at the moment
• 17:58
  S2: all come from that one fateful moment where he decided
• 18:00
  S2: to commit to this war without due, without a proper
• 18:04
  S2: strategy or due cause. So he has done that. That
• 18:08
  S2: is entirely self-inflicted, with just a little bit of help
• 18:11
  S2: from Benjamin Netanyahu. And everything else seems to be him
• 18:15
  S2: in the throes of trying to either make some marginal
• 18:20
  S2: difference to the cost of fuel to overcome the original sin,
• 18:24
  S2: the war in Iran, or distractions and wild speculations designed, apparently,
• 18:31
  S2: to distract from that central problem.
• 18:35
  S1: Let's talk about what's actually happening on the ground in
• 18:37
  S1: terms of how Trump looks like he's going to be
• 18:39
  S1: doing in these midterms, or how the Republicans are going
• 18:41
  S1: to be doing, because obviously, we don't want to predict
• 18:43
  S1: the outcome. Polls are, you know, you can only trust
• 18:46
  S1: them so much. But just walk us through really briefly
• 18:50
  S1: how many races are really tight for the Republicans. And
• 18:53
  S1: we're talking in states that are red, red, red, right?
• 18:56
  S1: We're talking Kansas, Nebraska, Alaska. There's all kinds of states
• 19:00
  S1: that have been Republican strongholds in some cases. Well, in
• 19:04
  S1: the case of Kansas for nearly a hundred years and
• 19:06
  S1: is looking to be tight. Right?
• 19:09
  S2: Yes. That's right. In the ordinary course of events, the
• 19:13
  S2: usual ebb tide of the political cycle, a midterm election
• 19:18
  S2: almost always shows a trend against the incumbent party. So
• 19:23
  S2: that you would expect that at any time. But in
• 19:26
  S2: this case, we have a president with a particularly low
• 19:29
  S2: approval rating. And the Republicans at an approval rating low
• 19:34
  S2: as well. Trump's approval, it depends on the poll, but
• 19:37
  S2: most recent ones, 30 and 32%, and the Republicans aren't
• 19:42
  S2: much better than that. So as a result, the expert consensus.
• 19:48
  S2: And the polling consensus out of the US is that
• 19:52
  S2: the Republicans will move to a majority position in the
• 19:55
  S2: House of Representatives. They only need four seats to get there,
• 19:59
  S2: and it looks like they'll win on the most conservative
• 20:02
  S2: projections projections, at least eight. And then there's the Senate,
• 20:06
  S2: which also seems to be very much up for grabs. Again,
• 20:11
  S2: there's a lot of speculation. And let's not get down
• 20:14
  S2: to two fine. A set of assumptions, predictions and poll analyses.
• 20:18
  S2: But I would just offer this point as well. Samantha,
• 20:23
  S2: if you look at the averages in the Real Clear
• 20:27
  S2: Politics polling averages on their average, Trump has an approval
• 20:31
  S2: rating of 38%. And everybody says, oh, it's terrible. The
• 20:35
  S2: Republicans also have in the same averaging about a 38%
• 20:39
  S2: approval rating. But what about the Democrats? The generic approval
• 20:44
  S2: rating for Democratic candidates is also at 38%. So what
• 20:50
  S2: does that tell you that the Democrats approval rating is
• 20:52
  S2: every bit as bad as Donald Trump's? It tells you
• 20:55
  S2: that this is not a blue wave, a cresting Democratic triumph.
• 21:00
  S2: That's impressed the American voter. But it's what the political
• 21:04
  S2: analyst Charlie Cook calls a red undertow. It's the it's
• 21:09
  S2: the retreating tide of support, red support, Republican support for
• 21:14
  S2: Trump and the Republican Party. That's the big motive part
• 21:18
  S2: in this election.
• 21:19
  S1: Well, here's hoping Peter, again, thank you as always. So
• 21:23
  S1: much for your time.
• 21:24
  S2: Always a pleasure, Samantha.
• 21:30
  S1: In other news, today, the first national count of Australia's
• 21:33
  S1: so-called sandwich generation is in 2.43 million people, aged between
• 21:40
  S1: 35 and 70, who keep our aged care system afloat
• 21:43
  S1: while juggling other work and family responsibilities. A major report
• 21:48
  S1: into the nation's rural health system has found that metropolitan
• 21:52
  S1: areas now have more than 20 times as many specialist
• 21:55
  S1: doctors per head as small rural towns. And the Greens
• 22:00
  S1: are demanding the government hike taxes on parents paying for
• 22:04
  S1: private school fees through trusts, arguing that there's a loophole
• 22:07
  S1: in the budget reforms. You can read more at the
• 22:11
  S1: age.com.au or smh.com.au. Today's episode was produced by Chi Wong.
• 22:19
  S1: Our executive producer is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are
• 22:22
  S1: overseen by Lisa Muxworthy and Tom McKendrick. If you like
• 22:26
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• 22:29
  S1: for us on Apple or Spotify. Thanks for listening.