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Scottish Open PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems go clear. You lifto what's up every one?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Tyler Tambline here aka to Tag and Tambo. Back for
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: another edition of Leverage Lane here on the ship at
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Nation YouTube station PGA d f s edition. Got my
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: guy Alex BLIKEL here with me as always, and we're
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: gonna be breaking down all things Scottish Open. We'll go
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: through it like we usually do. We'll start the top off.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: We've got a really good topic today, came from somebody
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: in the chat that we want to discuss. We've got
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: some news and some fun stuff going on with Alex
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: and his Discord DF's master ship at Nation dot Com,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: the Big Guy Event, a lot of stuff going on there,
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: and then we've got, of course the Scottish Open. We're
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: going to talk about the Chalk Build, what that looks like,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: some interesting things around the industry coming into this week
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: that we're gonna talk about there, and then we'll talk
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: about how to leverage the Chalk Build, the one and
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: done segment, the betting breakdown. At the very end, Alex
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: and I will get to our leverage Lane on how
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: we're handling single entry this week. From that perspective, Alex,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I'll bring you in my friend. Another fun week last week,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: but this is I mean, we're getting into the stretch now,
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: the overnight stuff. I had some fun last week. Advanced
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: into the Fantasy Golf World Championship, so I'm excited for that.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: At the three, I'm open. But this week is fun
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: when you get the overseas stuff and the blood flow
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: and getting ready for the Open, the final major starting
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: next week.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's It's been a lot of fun the last
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: few weeks.
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: And I think everyone who watches this show each and
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: every week, first of all, thank you guys, And second
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: of all, they everyone here kind of knows that this
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: has not been my best PGADFS season by a long stretch.
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: And so the last two weeks have been really fun.
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: Had really good sweats last Saturday and Sunday Showdown. Had
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: a great sweat again this past set. I actually thought that, like,
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: I had this one in the bag. And then Fowler,
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: who was nine hunder as the point, lost the bogie
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: free bonus.
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: On the last toll.
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: Keegan was four under and bogie free with like three
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: hosts to play, made two bogies and all of a
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: sudden I lost by six points. So you know, if
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: either of those guys gets it done. I get it
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: done as well, But then on Sunday didn't have a
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: PGA sweat and instead had to take down to MLB.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: So it's been it's been a lot of fun the
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: last couple weeks to really feel like I've got my
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: groove back and kind of in a DFS rhythm along
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: with you know, all the pickup stuff that's been really
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: solid all year.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's amazing and congrats on that. Like most things
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: in life, nothing feels better than when the momentum is
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: going in your favor. So when you got that rolling
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: finally and you get start the things start to click,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: it always feels better. It can go away, but it
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: can also stick around. It's just part of the mindset
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: that I think you have to have when you're going
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: into it, is you want to be playing when you're
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: feeling sharp. It doesn't always mean you'll get the best result.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: We've talked about this a ton on this show, and
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: that's one of the topics that will bring up. But
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: there's some fun ones today, like you know, stat will
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: get to it. Please explain to me, like I'm five,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: why Eugenio Chikara is projecting for double digit ownership. By
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: the way, the Novak nation not really in a good
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: spot last week. It's almost sixty percent owned in the
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Fantasy Golf World Championship and did not come through. I
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: ended up fading all three of those guys that I
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: said I would in that lineup as well. I did
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: play Burger, but when Berger missed, he was he's somehow
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: I got the forty one percent. I thought he'd be
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: like much lower than that, like twenty twenty five. I
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: was like, fine, he's in me one of my highest
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: own But if you're gonna lose somebody in a week
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: where you want six to six and like six or
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: six is a lock in that top fifty spot thing,
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: it's like, I want to lose the guy that's forty
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: one percent because it hurt all the other people that
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: had Coyvin and Novak and Michael Kim and all that.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: So we'll talk about that here as well. The sheriff,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: congrats to you, says scored my first ever seed. What's
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: let me know your username. I've talked to a few people.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: It's funny to the people that like you never know and
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: then they come out of the woodworks, like by the way,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: and congrats on your seat. Also, I got one. I'm like,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: what's your username? Like, Yeah, I've never been in this
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: before and I don't really go on X or Twitter
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: that much, but here I am. I met somebody else
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: the other day, Fred who said he would be down there,
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: but the sheriff let me know your user name, and
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: if you're going to be at the event, I'm definitely
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: going down so we will meet up there. We've got
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: some questions about qualifiers. I mean, we could kick it
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: off with this. You did just say you were in
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: the queues, and I know we're in the Q streets heavy,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: especially this week with your last shot to get into
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: the Mega for next week the forty four to forty four.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: But it says, Alex, question for you today about qualifiers,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: since we play similarly, if playing two entries like a
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: single entry, would you enter both in the seventy dollars
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: two max or spread it over two contests since those
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: are winner.
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: Take all the seventy dollars fire recall correctly is either
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: seventy two entries or sixty seven.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's sixty seven something like.
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So in this case I would definitely do I
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: would definitely do it in the two different contests, so
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: you have the chance to win two tickets. The argument
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: for doing them together in the same contest would be
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: that you knock one other entry out, right, so now
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: you have to beat sixty So you said, there's sixty seven,
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: So now I have to beat sixty five people instead
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: of sixty six.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: Like that's that doesn't change your odds in any way.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: If if this was a if this was a ten
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: man where you have the option to play two, now
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: having to beat eight other guys instead of nine other guys,
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: that actually does change your odds to win a decent
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: enough amount that maybe it's worth it. But it's seventy
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: two like you said, Yeah, okay, so yeah, you have
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: to beat seventy instead of seventy one. That doesn't really
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: change your odds in any meaningful way. So I think
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: you want to give yourself the opportunity to win two
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: instead of just one.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, my back testing research and you guys know, I
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: do a ton of review on the top players and
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: that sort of stuff that are using all different factors
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: when they're doing this, and you see a lot in
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: the queues specifically not I mean, now he's asking about
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Q shut up the scooter here, But to say, I
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: mean more like the Fantasy Baseball World Championship, And that's
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: a good one to use. Fantasy Golf World Championship. You know,
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: in the first I had two different ways to cover.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: I would need to be able to get to the
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: final to pay something off in the biggest way, so
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I wanted to at least get one through, and I
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: didn't make it so that neither I made it so
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: both could win. I just needed a top one hundred.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I came like one thirty sixth and inside the top
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: one hundred, one forty second and top on hundred, so
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: it could have happened. It just didn't. But my point
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: being in baseball, use it as a better example. And
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: then like the nine to twenty nine hundred and twenty dollars,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: buy in with around seventy two people give or take,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: and you can play two entries. You'll see some of
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: the top players play like Bradley last night from Minnesota
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: with Wheeler, okay, and that makes sense, and that builds
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: out the lineup, but then their second lineup will have
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: a full five man Cleveland stack against Bradley, who's like
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: at chopping meat at a great night at at like
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit you know, mid range ownership. But my
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: point just using that example is like they're saying it's
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: winner take all. They're not playing like the same team
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: with like two bats different and being like, well, what
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: if this guy gets the home run or what if
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: this guy gets the home run. It's almost like a
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: waste at that money of like it wouldn't be if
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: you win it, but you're better off to almost make
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: it to say, like, if I'm knocking something out, I
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: wanted to knock out all this stuff with it and
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: bring the other one along. If you're gonna play teams
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: that close, Scooter, I'm with Alex as well, and I
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: would say, like they're that close, we want to kind
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: of try and win two of them as opposed to
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: push them against each other. Now, if there was a
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: week with weather and he said, man, I can't tell
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: if it's gonna be AM or PM stack, but I'm
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: going with the field on the AM stack, but I'm
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: gonna use a PM It might be six teams out
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: of the seventy two that have a PM stack, and
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: not only does your AM team get wiped out, but
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: all the am stack teams get wiped out. Now you're
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: in a game of one of six instead of two
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: of seventy two. So that's where I would feel better
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: about putting it into the same one. Hopefully that helps
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: you out. The sheriff comes through with the easiest one ever, buddy,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Just look at my handle. Yeah, bets man, that's gonna
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: be awesome. So this will be there Thursday morning. Uh,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: don't want to miss the cut. Sweat DK doesn't start
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: till Friday. It's weird. This is crazy, Alex. So they're
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: doing Friday night welcome reception. So as I always make
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: the joke, you could be literally dead on arrival. You
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: can have two or six and that. But on a
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: side note, there's a good reason you may enjoy this.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: A they added starting last year a round four contest,
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: which pays two hundred and fifty thousand to first minimum.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Everybody gets at least five K, and first is two
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty k. It's like a decent payout structure. Two,
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: which so you're not really dead on arrival. Even your
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: classic team is dead for the millie. But two everybody
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: gets that wants to stay through gets to golf the
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: same course on Monday.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: Oh that's awesome.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Okay, so that's pretty cool, right, you're getting that, so
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: that is part of it, So Sheriff, I'm actually because
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: where I'm flying from, I'll also be in on Thursday night,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit later on. But because of the cuts,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: like the cuts what I want to be there for
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: on Friday, but also I don't want to be leaving
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: on Thursday morning going up risking the Wi fire, the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: air of like the late withdraw. I got to have
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: the teams locked before I fly out, So I will
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: be up there Thursday night. But I definitely reach out. Man,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: we'll we'll connect to have a drink or whatever it
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: is you like to do meet up. But good question here,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Alex that I wanted to talk about anything else you
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: want to recap from last week? First, I guess we
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: couple minutes, but anything you want to go off of
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: for last.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: Week I don't think. So this is a really good question.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: Let's just jump right in.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Okay, Brandon, this was awesome. We were tossing some different
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: ideas back and forth, and we've got a meeting after
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: this and just to chat through some things, you know, together,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: But this kind of hit on it perfectly, and Brandon says,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: good morning. If you had to rebuild the process of
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: a losing DFS player from scratch, what would be the
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: first two things you would focus on. I'm basically ad
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: living some up. It is just not getting the results
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: that weren't the time I'm putting in. So Alex, I'll
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: kick it to you first. I mean, I've got a
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: ton of different thoughts, but I think this is something
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: that you and I both you know, near and dear
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: to our hearts. We spend a lot of time on
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: this with our different brands and projects and things that
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: we work on. So what's your thoughts to help Brandon
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: out here? And I'm sure there's many others asking this
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: question and thinking like Brandon.
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is this is a phenomenal question because I
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: think the very first thing I'll say here is, Brandon,
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: you're already ahead of where you probably believe you are
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: because you are recognizing this right, Like, there are so
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: many losing DFS players who are just firing week after
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: week after week, and they're not recognizing the fact that, hey,
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: you know what, there's something in my process that isn't
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: quite right that I need to improve on. So you're
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: you're already a step ahead in that regard. The second
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: thing that I would say is focus on the fundamentals. So, uh,
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: you know, Mastermind is is obviously awesome at teaching fundamentals,
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: and uh so if you're not a part of Mastermind already,
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: that's that's probably a good place. Chances are you you
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: may already be.
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: But I think.
• 10:30
  Speaker 3: Like one of the things that I do in my discord,
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: for example for baseball, is I have these massive, like
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: roster construction charts where I'm looking at, Hey, these are
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: just flat out winning strategies. If your lineup fits this category,
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: it's going to be a winning strategy. So for example,
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: like five three stacks this year not as good as
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: I expected them to be. Five two, one four, three,
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: one four, four are all superior or to five three. Okay,
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: that's a good thing to know. The second thing is like, uh,
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: if you're using the most popular stats on the slate,
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: not using the most popular bat in that stack is
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: a winning strategy. So just things like that where you
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: can go through and just like make a checklist for yourself.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: Am I doing this within the lineup?
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: Am I not?
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: And I think you know it's going to be hard
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: for an average DFS player to just kind of have
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: that information on their own. Got to go somewhere to
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: get that. So mastermind, I discord that sort of thing.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: I do think.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: Helps in that regard, but mostly it's just I think
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: simplifying and sticking to fundamentals. And so, like one question
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: that I would ask right away is what kind of
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: contests are you playing every week? Are you doing twenty max?
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: You're doing single entry. I think the worst thing you
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: could possibly do is like a different thing every single week. Right.
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: You want you want a process that you can really
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: own and make your own, and so personally, I think
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: the easiest way to do that is to go to
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: single entry. Just do one lineup per week and make
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: sure that that lineup or one lineup per slate, I
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: should say, and make sure that that lineup is as
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: fundamentally sound as it can be.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you, man. And it's always a
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: sales pitch. I get it, people, but I make it
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: like so for it's forty seven bucks one time payment
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: to get started if you had in seven hours of
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: just like dialing in the foundation and the fundamentals of
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: your game. But it's this was my own learning experience.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Anybody who knows me, and I've been doing this for years,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: it's on record. That's a nice thing about doing this publicly. Forever.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: I used to do all picks and plays. I was
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: on the Fantasy Golf Degenerates. It's nothing against it, but
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: like I would talk about that all the time, thinking
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: that's what was important. If anybody who remembers my stuff,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: I did Tambo's tidbits, and I know some people still
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: want those back, and it was nice. I believe still
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: in curation, I love that. It's like I know nobody
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: has every time to go everywhere and get it all,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: but just to note it. It's like man curating all
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: the picks and plays to still have to know how
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: to build the lineups. And that's why you see some
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: of these. This is just dfsmastermind dot com and you
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: check it out, but it's like there's so much content
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: beyond just the two courses. The two courses are forty
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: seven bucks. You own them forever. You get them on
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: a podcast, you can have them on video. Check them out.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: But these are the fundamentals I learned the game, and
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: not just picks and plays. Game changer for a DFS
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: player changing the way I looked at the game. I
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: talk about this a ton, but people don't talk about
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: content diet enough. And again this will sound biased because
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I think that's why people enjoy listening to us, and
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: hopefully they do, and if they didn't, they if they
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be here. So it's fine. I think everybody here
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: that does enjoy listening to us, but it's you're renting
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: someone else's process. Like I used to do this too.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: I joked to you, I've filled you the story. Before
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I would go to the gym, I would listen to
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: a podcast, and on a Tuesday of NFL season, I'm
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: going through and typing in NFL lineups like, oh, back
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: in the day, shout up to the CSU RAM and
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: you know those guys back in the day, like you
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: DFS Edge or the DraftKings Edge or whatever it was called.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: I was like, I was listening to them. CSU RAM
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: games gave me some ideas I'd build the CSU RAM lineup.
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: Well.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: By the end of the week, I'd built ten different
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: podcast lineups of people I listened to. Even if something
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: had success, I had absolutely no clue where I got
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: it from. I swear I'd be like, well, and who cares?
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: Right you want some money? You're like, shit, I know
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: I did my process work, but what was my process? Like,
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: I have no clue how I could redo this the
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: next week. So it's like, you know it talks about
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: it all too much information, no framework. People say it
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: all the time, all the right pieces, just not in
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: the right place. Is keep depositing you said, everyone just
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: fires off without making it so our thought process is
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: again Also, I should know it if you go to
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: ship It Nation and you're just a member over here.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: There is free education courses too by sport if you
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: want to check out. But I think getting the foundation,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: learning it, and then being able to take into something
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: like Alex's discord where you can say, hey, I've got
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: the fundamentals to have a good process. Now I can
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: take in all this information and use it to my
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: advantage and really understand what's going on. So Brandon, I
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: think you're in a right in the right place. As
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Alex said, I think refocusing on getting back to basics,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: sticking with good contest selection and bankroll manager, which if
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: you don't have that, it's in all the courses and
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: stuff that you can get on ship Nation or Mastermind
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: or any of that stuff. But then also the content diet,
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: understand that if you're listening to podcasts just to listen
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: to them or like try and take in so much information.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: I would really focus on people that are actually playing
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: the game at a high level, that you're seeing them
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: have success, that they're putting up real money, and it's
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: not just because of the money that they put up,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: it's just that means they're more invested. Like if they're
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: putting up the money to try and find and they're
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: actually trying to help you, that's what I would be
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: looking for. Man, So I think you're in the right place.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: I think you're doing some of the right stuff. If
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: you have any questions, feel free to DM me and
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: reach out. But Alex, do you have anything you want
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: to add?
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So just like to specifically answer the question of
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: what would be the first two things you would focus on?
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: Do you have Do you have like two specifics in mind?
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: For sure? I would say content diet and bankroll management
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: and contest selection because the bankroll management contes selection is
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: so cliche, but it's more than that. That's why I
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: added on to like what you had said, it's like,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: sometimes get back to the basics. People are experimenting, Well,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna try twenty max this week, I'm gonna play
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: single entry, and just things aren't going my way. See
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: how it goes. It's like you got to dial in
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: to what it is that gets you back to the
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: basics and then get rid of the information overload, focus
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: way more on learning how to play the game Chess.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: I use it all the time, and I'm not even
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: a good chess player. I don't even know the rules,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: but it is the same and the same pieces. I
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: think you're a chess guy. If you and I played
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: chess one hundred times, you would beat me one hundred
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: to zero. Ghit you would, because it's like I don't.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: I don't. There's no way. I don't have the moves
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: in my TA, like it's not in my bag. But
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: if I play Brandon in DFS, will there's variance and whatever,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: I'd be confident in my ability over one hundred games
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: of head to heads and being able to play against him.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: And that's not big uping. I'm it's saying that's that's
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: the factors here. So I think it is important to
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: know that this is a game. Focus on learning the
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: game and stop worrying about the picks and plays. We
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: say it all the time, but it's it's so true. Yeah,
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: I think my two would be very similar.
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: Like the first thing that I would focus on is
• 16:38
  Speaker 3: I would just say, Okay, how can I build one
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: lineup per slate really really well?
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: And then the second thing that I would do is.
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: I would, if you haven't already, I would start tracking
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: what you do every slate and you can download your
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: DraftKings entries and kind of answer this question yourself. But
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: I would want to know how often are your lineups
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: finishing in the top one percent and how often are
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: they finishing in the top ten percent of contests, And ideally,
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: like you want to be in the top one percent
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: more than one percent of the time, you want to
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: be in the top ten percent more than ten percent
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: of the time. If you can hit those benchmarks, even
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: if you're losing money, you at least know, Okay, the
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: process is sound. I'm putting myself in position for wins,
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: and the wins just aren't coming. But you also might
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: learn some stuff about like the shape of your distribution
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: for example, So maybe you're like just under one percent
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: for the top one percent, but you're nowhere near ten percent.
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: That probably means you're being too contrarian. You need to
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: actually embrace some more chalk. If, on the other hand,
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: you're at like, oh, I'm finishing in top the top
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: ten percent fairly often, but I'm very, very rarely getting
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: to the top one percent of contests, that means you're
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: probably not being contrarian enough, you're not giving yourself enough
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: separat or so by doing that, you can also kind
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: of learn about where you're coming up short. And you
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: know that just that takes away some of the variants
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: of profit and loss in dfs, because profit and loss
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: is so much better. Like when you have that top
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: one percent lineup, are you finishing first or are you
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: just coming up short and finishing third. That's a lot
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: of randomness, whereas giving yourself those chances. It's just like
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: you know, talking about guys winning golf tournaments, right, like
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: the guy who's in contention a lot is the one
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: who's probably gonna win more often in the future than
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: the guy who only got into contention once, but he
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: happened to win when he got there.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: It's the same idea with DFS.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and people got to remember too. With golf, Like
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: I always compared DFS to golf, it's an individual sport.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: There's qualifiers, there's way skinning, like getting into a Major
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: or a Mega or a live final is like this
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: is the Masters for you know, the Fantasy Golf World Championship.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: It's like the biggest thing. There's only fifty people get
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: to go down this lane and be able to play
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: in the event, but they had to earn their way
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: in and so on and so forth. But with golf,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: people got to remember, these are the professional golfers at
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: the highest level. They can skate by and get their
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: you know, few fifth places a year and keep their
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: ticket and ride through. But that's cause it's like they're
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: always in the Mega. A PA event is always a Mega,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: and then the Masters is like the main event. It's
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: like there's a there's levels to it in separators. You
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: can't skate by in DFS. Somebody told me you before
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: in NBA, like I'm cashing pretty much daily, and like, well,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: you're probably playing bad. Like it should not be like that,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Like you you should have It's not to be rude
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: or anything, like you should have like a ceiling or
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: a floor. If you're just min cashing every day, you're
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: never like have you ever had a sweat? No, it's
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: always like I just sneak in on the min cash line.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: But I at least like cash green is green. That's
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: bad that like whoever told you that green is green? Yes,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: it can't take that away, but it's when you look
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: at it from a process standpoint, that is not true,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: and you're probably playing very poorly because you're not allowing
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: yourself to have the outcome that you're actually wanting to
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: achieve when you press enter on that contest.
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that gets that gets back to like
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: the very first thing that I said that there there
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: are so many people who have been losing differst players.
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: Doesn't mean they're gonna be in the future, but who
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: aren't kind of like admitting to themselves that they they've
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: been a losing defest player and and that you know
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: that comment of like I'm cashing every day.
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: First of all, what does that mean?
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: Because if you're if you're playing single entries and you're
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: and you say you're cashing every day, No, you're not
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: twenty five percent of the field at most cashes in
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: the contest. There's no chance you're cashing every day unless
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: you're unless like you have the magic eight ball, and
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: and in that case, you're gonna be in contention, you're
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: gonna win tournaments.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they're exaggerating the numbers. By the way. It's like
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: when a dude versus how many have you been with?
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: People you've been with? It's like some say this way,
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: some say that way. You're you're literally not cashing every day.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: There's just no way.
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: But I know what they mean, yeah, or or like
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: I have a buddy who who once told me he
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: was cashing every day, and what he meant was he
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: was playing like twenty lineups and at least one.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: Was cashing every day.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: It's okay, but you're still losing money on the day.
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: That doesn't it doesn't mean you're cashing on the day.
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: If you spent one hundred bucks and lost eighty of it,
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't call that.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: Tells you you're winning. So it's fine.
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the it's the old Twitter joke.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I think, uh again, like really really great question,
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: because it shows that you're already in a mindset where
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: you're trying to learn, you're trying to get better, and
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: you're trying to, you know, adjust your process, and I
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: think we we just gave a long answer to it.
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: I think the best thing I can say is you
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: don't have to listen to all of it. For one thing,
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: like maybe pick and choose your your favorite one or
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: two points.
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: But overall, the I think.
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: The best thing I can say is try and simplify
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: the process as much as possible. Get down to one lineup,
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: do that well. And then if you start to feel
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: like you have some moto doing a single entry and
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: you didn't want to just be a one lineup player,
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: you want to be good at three entry or twenty max,
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: get good at one first, and then once you feel
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: like you've got that down, if you can build one
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: lineup really, really well, your chances of building three well
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: are much higher. Your chances of building twenty at a
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: time well are much higher than if you're struggling to
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: even just build the one lineup well.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, And like stat said, a couple things
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: that said, like the Barbell approach, agree fully on this,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: talking about like finish way left all the way up
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: because tournaments are so top heavy. So I agree with that,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: and then statsays long answer. True, but one of the
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: most important discussions you had in the history of the
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: show in my opinion. And I know, Alex, you get
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: you know, your discord going and you get a lot
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: of good, sharp people in there, and they'll all speak
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: very highly of that discord, myself included. It's awesome spot
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: to be if you're trying to learn and get better
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: at the game. It's advanced, I'm still picking up even
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: and learning new things. It helps when you know the
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: game better. And I know you would have the same testimonials,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: but again, if you just go to dfsmastermind dot com,
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: it's it's not what we're saying. It's like you can
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: see what other people are saying. There's literally two hundred
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: something plus testimonials. You can just keep scrolling it down
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: and going all day. So go to the site, check
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: it out, see what you guys think we're going to
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: get to this week. But I want to say too, shout.
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: Out last thing here, Tamba least thing on that is
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: a lot of the testimonials that you showed have like
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: the same theme of common which is you've kind of
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: changed the way that I see DFS.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: And then I approach DFS.
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: That's the most that's probably the most popular feedback that
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: I get in the discord as well, and I think
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: it goes to show that like this this question again,
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: it's so good because it's recognizing that, hey, something in
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: my process needs to change. And that's exactly what you know,
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: these people are kind of talking about where it's not
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: always about like you know, when when you join my discord,
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: for example, it's not that you're going to become a
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: winning player because I'm telling you to play this guy
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: and this guy and they end up and go win
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: the tournament each and every week. It doesn't happen like that.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: What happens instead is you just start to see DFS
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: in a different way. The game becomes a little bit
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: simpler in your mind, and I think that that also
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: just makes it a lot more fun, right like you,
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: when you feel prepared to answer the question of how
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: you know what is the best way to attack this slate,
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: it's more fun to then go build lineups and do
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: things like that.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: So that was just the last point I wanted to
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: make on it.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: You're good and another you know, a very good friend
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: of ours, James who passed last year Obviously the Big
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: Guy was of the exact same mindset. That's why we
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: all got along so much, so why people love the
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: concept of us all working together and doing these things
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: and talking about it. But you know, he had the
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: exact same testimonials tenfold of you know, a thousandfold of
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: people saying the exact same way. You change the way
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: I think about playing the game. And that's what we're
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: trying to do and live on. And we do have
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: an event coming up for those that don't know or
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: have missed it, the Big Guy Event. If you need
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: details on it, reach out to me. But it's gonna
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: be Friday, August twenty first in Las Vegas, seven thirty
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: to ten thirty pm at the d Casino and Hotel.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: You can go to the site at ship It Nation
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: dot com, slash the dash Big Dash Guy Dash Event,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: or just reach out to me and ask for details.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: It's all on the site, but we've got the Detroit Ballroom.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: Everyone is welcome. It's not just Shipping Nation only, so
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: it's the entire DFS community. But he's a guy that
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: definitely shaped that same type of thinking for many out there.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: So shout out to games Last Weight, I gotta say
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: shout out to Deuces Wild, have a ton of respect
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: for your game. I haven't seen you on here before,
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: but I'm sure you've been following along and maybe you're
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: just gonna say congrats. Really appreciate it, and congrats to
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: you two out of the three tickets. I know the
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: avatar is like that. I don't even know what it is,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: but it's like a blue purple, hazy thingy like I
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: don't even know a mutant or something like. I know
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: exactly what the avatar is when I see it, but
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: incredible respect for your game. Congrats to you two out
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: of three. Getting through is huge. Alex K fourteen. I
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: was talking to him the other day and Pat talked
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: about Master. He got two through as well. There's some people, man,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: it's a tough field. A lot didn't get through. A
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: lot did, but it's a very tough field. You're going
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: up against the best of the best. It sucks that
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: you can't be there. It says vacation blends, and I
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: know that's the tricky part with August, like even the
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: big guy event I just threw up. It's hard with that,
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: but says good to know about playing that course on Monday.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: I talked to Alex earlier as well deuces and Alex
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: said he's trying to make it out because I said
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: I wasn't sure if he was gonna be able to
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: make it, he said, but I won't be able to
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: make it. I won't be able to stay through until Monday. Said,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: but that's probably a better thing because that course is
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: way too hard for me. And I told Pat I
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: might have to be the caddy man. There's like, no,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: I don't have enough balls in the bag. If you'll
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: bring extras at all, it's tough. But congrats, dus Is
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: really respect your game and think you're just a great player.
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: So good luck in that tournament. So thanks respecting as well.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: That's awesome and love seeing that stuff. And yeah, I
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: think this is a good good spot to jump over.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: I mean, we did our topic even faster this week.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: It was a long win and answered, I think it's
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: gonna help a ton of people, hopefully it does. If
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: you guys have questions, you can always reach out. But
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: let's bring up we've got the rough draft of the
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: stone real interesting because we still have a few minutes
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: left before our halfway thirty. We always say like thirty
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: minutes or less to talk about that stuff. But we
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: can go on for ages obviously, but crazy like some
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: of the industry ownership early seems insane on Scotty, like
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: I don't see it even even ours is high right
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: now on the rough draft, like I see it much
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: lower than that. And again we always dial it in
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: the rough draft kind of just puts it together. And
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: I think it's because of guys like Xander's way too
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: low gon like the nine K range we have too
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: low right now, but literally just got put out like
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: half hour before we hopped on, so I understand it.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: We like to still get something out there and then adjust.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: We tell nobody to use it until the very end.
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: We'll talk through that here. But one of the more
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: interesting things I know others have commented on in the
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: past is a lot of other sites have their salary
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: usage adding up to more than the valid salary that
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: you're able to use. Talk talk through that a little bit.
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: I think that's probably a pretty interesting concept to summer.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: They don't know what you're what we're really talking about
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: when we say that.
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: Well it it's funny, how, you know, we we don't
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: always plan ahead of like Hey, what's the show''re going
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: to look like today? And I was actually gonna suggest
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: I think this week we should actually start with ownership
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: before we even talk about the golf course and the
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: field like it. This is this is an ownership and
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: kind of a price driven week. Where So what you're
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: alluding to is there are there are major sites around
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: the industry, well respected, expensive sites around the industry that
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: are projecting over fifty thousand dollars worth of salary to
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: be owned. Obviously, that doesn't make sense, right, and so
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: like if you threw their ownership projections into an optimizer,
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: it would just fail.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: It would say, we can't we.
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: Can't possibly match this because the lineups can't be built
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: with this much salary owned. So you know, there's the
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: fifty thousand dollars cap obviously with drafting. So essentially what
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: that means is something has to give for most of
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: the ownership projections around the industry. Either the top guys
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: are too high, so Scott he shouldn't be, you know,
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: twenty some percent, Rory shouldn't be twenty some percent alongside
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: of him. Or if those guys are going to be
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: that owned, then someone down below needs to be a lot.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: More popular than they are, and so I.
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: Can speak to the ownership that I have over f
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: ten right now and the ownership that's in my discord.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: That'll be more of an announcement coming soon.
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: But some like where I have it right now is
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: I've got Scotty and Rory both at eleven percent in
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: single entries.
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: That feels too low to me.
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: But I have nobody under seventy five hundred dollars who's
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: ten percent or above. And when I look through that,
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: I don't have anybody down there who I can look
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: at and say, you know what, this is the guy.
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: This is the guy who's going to end up ten
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: to fifteen percent. But I do think that either Scotty
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: or Rory will be more and they might be more
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: like fifteen percent each, or one might get to twenty
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: the other might be around ten percent. And then I
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: think they're going to be a handful of guys down
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: below who end up being more popular than their ownership.
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: I just have a really hard time right now judging
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: who that's going to be. But I think that gets
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: into the question of like why is this, why why
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: is ownership looking so strange in this way?
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: This week. It's because of the pricing.
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: What we've seen so far this year is in these
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: really big, strong field events, like we haven't had a
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: field like this in any event except a major championship
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: because that's when we get some of these live guys
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: like Rom. So what we've seen in those events is
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: guys like Nikolai Hoygard are sixty three hundred dollars, sixty
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: five hundred dollars, and there's a five thousand dollars range. Well,
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: now we have Scotty at fourteen, Rory at twelve, Rom
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: at eleven and a half, just like the major championships,
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: except there's no five thousand dollar range, and guys like
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: Nikolai Hoyard Hoyguard are eight thousand dollars instead of sixty five.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: And so you just have like the regular pricing for
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: the value range as if this is the you know,
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: as if we're playing Detroit Golf Club this week and
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: the Scottish Open. But then you also have all of
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: the best players where the top of the price is
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: fourteen thousand, instead of what we see at those events
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: like last week, where you know, there are maybe three
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: guys at ten k, but everyone's under eleven so it's
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: just a really extreme pricing. Where they they kind of
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: left all of the value range is if this is
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: a regular event and doesn't have that top end field,
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: but they didn't change the top end pricing, and so
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: it's just it's gonna be really really difficult for people
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: to build Scotti lineups. And if people do go to Scotty,
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: if people do go to ram or Roary more than
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: what we're currently projecting, it means there's gonna be some
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: surprises down in the value range. And again, like I
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: just have no idea who those who's those surprises are
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: actually gonna be.
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you said, well, like the seven K range,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: it still fits a bunch of different builds. Like you know,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: Pat and I went through it yesterday. You could see
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: like obviously all these guys whoever becomes the favorite in here,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: and we've got some of them at double digits that
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: I do agree with right now, Like I think Tom
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Kim and Jaikara and those guys are going to show
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: up that way. That's fine. Some others could catch a boost,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: like Wallace typically gets projected well everywhere we still haven't projected.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: I think that'll come up more as optimizers take a
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: hold of this, but maybe not as high. But I
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: guess the bigger thing for me, and like obviously writing Fitzpatrick,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: they always get loved. Ho Guard's gonna get the Hogarth's price,
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: by the way, just doesn't matter price. Guy nine K,
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: cad Priceman, sixty five hundred people play them, and that's fine.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: They you know, great player. But just to note it
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: where I think ours is currently wrong. A couple callouts
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: and we'll make adjustments. But I think, like obviously these
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: nine K guys are all too low the spread, the
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: idea is here. I get it of like, okay, these
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: three will be somewhat owned, these guys will be more
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: owned than them. These guys will really be the poppers.
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Like yes, people are gonna go back to god her
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: Up and Clark with how they've been playing, and you
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: can even play them both together. And man and I
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: went back and forth on like one verse the other,
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: playing both, mixing them in all these different things. But
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna I've went back and forth on these things
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: so many times. I'm just taking my hard stand this week.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: I just don't see any world where Scotty's more owned
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: than Rory it's two thousand bucks. It goes a long way.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: The reports are out saying Rory's gonna be good and
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: all this like how good he looks and blah blah blah.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Scotty couldn't close the playoffs the short pot.
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: I don't.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: I not that that matters. I'm just noting it. Like
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: to me, it's way more about the fourteen K and
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: the two K drop plus the want to play the
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: nine K guys is like, if I'm just comparing those two,
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: I think we could see like seventeen nineteen or fifteen
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: seventeen or something like that, and I think rom could
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: be a little bit lower. And then I think we
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: see a big boost to this crew up the middle here.
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Rory has also won here and after last year,
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: like now everyone's on the on the idea that, hey,
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: you know what, this is a bomber's course. So I
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: think I agree in those those two thousand dollars really
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: do come into effect. I'm guessing it's going to be
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: more like Rory fifteen to twenty and Scottie a little
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: bit under fifteen is probably where I'm gonna end up
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: having them. But I also agree with you that that
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: trio of Xander, Oberg and Tommy, they've got to go up,
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: especially I think Xander and Oberg because again, people know
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: this is a bomber's course, and so I think those
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: guys will be over twenty percent, maybe even like pushing
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: thirty percent. And obviously, like those two things are connected, right,
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: The Scotti and the Rory ownership and the Xander through
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: Tommy ownership are very much connected.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: If people are paying all the way up for Scotty
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: and Rory, they can't get to that upper nine k range.
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: One of the ways people would feel better about skipping
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: those two most expensive guys is if they just decide
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: to load up on the nine K range. And so
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: obviously that ownership is connected, and that's something people should
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: remember as well.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent, I'm glad you brought that up,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: because that's another thing too, Like I know, like I
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: think min Wu and Kiddiyama and even Jay, like some
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: of these guys will get a boost here too. We're
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: only giving it to hatt and on our stuff right now,
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: but I know as soon as these pop up, it's
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: because look, if you got Scotty at this number with
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: seventy two hundred remaining. Not many people are clicking min
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: Wu in and leaving sixty nine hundred dollars. Like if
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: they're gonna get a second die in, they're gonna go
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: with someone they really want versus And I'm not saying
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: they shouldn't want min Wo. I'm noting just perspective, like
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: how you'll play it versus if someone's like, well, I'm
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: gonna go with the approach that I like, And I
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: don't even know if I want Hatton because I'm loading
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: up on these guys now I think they'll definitely touch
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: over twenty. But now it becomes like the min Wu
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: hoguard and still have seventy seven. I can get another
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: eight K guy in a low seven. I can get
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: another nine K guy and a six K guy like this,
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: These are the types of builds where I think that's
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: where it's not saying it's the good build. It's to
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: say that's what I see in ownership, where right now
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: you're not seeing it. It's all connected. Like you said,
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: you are gonna see guys like min Wu pop up
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: and Kiddieyama and the bombers in there that they get
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: more love when these numbers go up, because that just
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: allows them to fit into the lineups better. So where
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: did you want to start for the chalk build this week?
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: It's like as low as got her up or do
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: you think it's up to Zander? Where are you at?
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: Well?
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: So I actually before we do Jordan asked about like
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: what we expect for god up and window ownership, And
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: I think this is a this is a question that
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: I'm wondering myself because it's you know, we talk all
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: the time about like the post win ownership discount. I
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: don't know how much we're gonna get on these guys
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: in that regar, but I think it's a valid question.
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: I think, like you know, Wyndham was very open about
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: how exhausted he was at the Travelers and how he
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: couldn't wait to finish and just rest, and so like
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: it's I actually wasn't going to be surprised if he
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: decided to not play this week, give himself an extra
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: week at home, and then just come over for the open.
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: I think it's probably a good sign that he's back
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: right away, and you know he's saying, you know what,
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: I am, I am ready for this and I want
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: to just kind of continue this momentum.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: I think the.
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: I have significantly less concern about like a post win slump,
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: if you will, from from got Her Up, just because
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: this was his fifth win. It wasn't like it was
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: some you know, huge win. It wasn't like a major
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: championship career change or anything like. He's already had bigger
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: wins than the one he just had, and so I
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: think in that regard, he's good to go defending champ.
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: I think he's probably the more likely to get ownership,
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: but also the more likely to just continue to play
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: really really well. Do you have any any kind of
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: additional thoughts there.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: I definitely think they both get to twenty and it's like,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: you know, if not really close, because at the end
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: of the day, this is an example I just threw
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: up on the screen with like some of the guys
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: we're seeing from the Bomber narrative and also some of
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: the ones get you know, clicked all the time, and
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: this is putting got Her Up in second. If I
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: just pull Pottgeiter and Xander, who I think are just
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: I'm just picking two like semi popular options, you now
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: get down to penge Reid, who you know, like everyone
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: fits Chakar let's fill it out with it. If it
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: actually is Chakar, we'll see. But there's Penge, there's Reed,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: and there's Tom Kim. All those guys could get love
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: at that range. To me, this is way more of
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: like what the standard chalk build looks like. It projects
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: out well, it's pretty easy to get to this and
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: feel comfortable and play. Got her up and Clark and
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: I think like there's still gonna be Look, Ludwig has
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: not showed up on Sunday's spoiler alert. Shane Lowry has
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: not showed up on Sundays either. Contention scores. You know this,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: but it's been crazy to see how that plays out,
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: but just noting it like Xander, I get it. So
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: I could see Fits coming down. I could see Rom
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: coming down. I see both these coming down. I see
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: him lower than Rory and him slightly like somewhere in
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: this reign. I like what you said, fifteen to twenty,
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: just below fifteen. If Scott He's gonna be below fifteen,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: then I gotta think Rom's below fifteen. So that's the
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: case there. But I could see even like Fits coming
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: down some because it's Xander's got good history and obviously
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: projects well better than you know Fitzpatrick. All of that,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: people will play Ludvig, but maybe not as much the other.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: The one thing I will say though, is Fleetwood is
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: another interesting wrinkle. But by the way, this could be
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: this only because people always love Fleetwood. He's projected very
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: well at other sites and things like that, so I
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: think like there's a potential that you see Fleetwood be
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: in some of these builds too, And then people do
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: make the decision to say, I'm not going to got
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: her up off the win and I know he won
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: here last year, but whatever. But remember god Arp won
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: the Scottish Open this exact tournament last year. Nobody wanted
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: to play him at the Open because well, now it's
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: a major, there's no way he's gonna come through the
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: next week. And then he crushed it again at the
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Open and was needed. So this is I don't know,
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: this is like a couple different chalk versions, but to me,
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: the constants are somewhere in this, like trio of the
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: upper sevens and lower eights yep, mixed with the nine
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: k guys pick your poison, and then some sort of
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: landing spot of Chakara Kim whatever. It just tells us
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: that what we already know the AK range overlooked outside
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: of maybe adding like min Wu and Hatten in there
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But that makes me think too, And
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: I will bring this up because it's a Fleetwood point.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: Fleetwood's fine and ninety four, but we've seen where Fleetwood's
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: been priced in this range before at majors, and people
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: are like, there's no way people skip over Fleetwood, and
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: they don't. But then when he comes in at like
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: twelve or thirteen, they're like, oh, eh, he didn't get
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: as much as I thought. It's because they just couldn't play,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: Like I don't know if maybe this number is right,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: maybe comes up a little down a little I'm not
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: sure what you have him at, but it could be
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: more like twelve to fifteen for Hatten, and he just
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: gets stuck in the middle because you know, not a
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: lot of people are gonna flip what are you gonna
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: flip the bill to? Like, not a lot of people
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: are gonna want I don't know, Chikara and Fleetwood becomes Hatton,
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: and you know you can find the hundred bucks. I
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: guess to go to somebody else, but I don't know,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Like I just don't see a lot of people landing
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: on this over the Fleetwood version. What do you think?
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So the first thing I'll say is I don't
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: expect Wyndham and got Her Up to get to twenty percent.
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: I think got Her Up has a much better chance
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: to get to twenty. But like, I'll be surprised if
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: Windham's even at fifteen. And the main reason why I
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: think that actually isn't the the post win ownership discount.
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: It's that I just expect so much ownership to go
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: to that trio of Xander, Oberg and Tommy, and there's
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: just not enough to go around where all of those
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: guys get to twenty. All of that said, like, I
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: think what we're seeing is okay. We know that people
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: can try to get to Scouty and Rory. We know
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: there are a lot of guys in this nine K
• 39:57
  Speaker 3: range that you can kind of pick and choose from.
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: But the constant for both of us is that Nikolai, Alex, Fitzpatrick,
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: and Rayton are going to be popular. Those three they
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: fit any type of build, Like, even if you start
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: with Rory, you can get two or three of those guys.
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: Even if you start with Scottie.
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: You can get one or two of those guys if
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: you're willing to dive into the six K range after that.
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: So I think those three are kind of the quote
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: unquote chalk build. And then from there it's just okay, well,
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: who do I surround these guys with? Do I go
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: with a more balanced nine K range lineup? Do I
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: try to get up to one of the studs. And
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: we'll see different ways of that, but these three are
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: kind of the centerpiece to any type of lineup.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I guess that could be right, Like I said,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: maybe it's more like fifteen to twenty now that you
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: say it like that, because there is different combos. I
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: just pulled up another one here of Xander, Tommy and Pockeater,
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: like again, just using some of the popular options that
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: don't go to those two, and because there is so
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: many other nine K guys that will pull a little
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: from them. So I think just building the best versions
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: of those. But then to your point, what's the Rory
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: version look like? Oh wait, I still have seven K
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: so I didn't even Oh and then some I'll say
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: whatever whatever, But I didn't even have to pull pot Eater.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: And it's like I still have seventy two hundred. I
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: can get to whoever they choose here. Let's say it's
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: Rasmus or something or yeah, I know, yes, I Mayo
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: mentioned Perez and I saw him get a little bit
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: of love in some other places. If it's like these two,
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: it projects only like eight points less, but that's not
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: gonna matter. It's a medium. But it still just shows
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: you the idea of Okay, do you want Fleetwood, sorry
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: Xander Fleetwood and pot Gater, or do you want Rory,
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Rasmus and Perez. It's still keeping the constant of these
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: three being in the mix.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: The next thing I'll say here is like one of
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: my main kind of ideas I guess for ownership this
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: week was that this is the type of tournament where
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: people are always gonna ask themselves, Okay, well what happened
• 41:55
  Speaker 3: last year?
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: And what happened last year?
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: We saw kind of the introduction to writing, and we
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: saw Marco Penge up in contention, and we know that
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: this is a bomber's course. I think a lot of
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: people are going to ask who is this year's Marco Penge?
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: And when they asked that question, who are they going
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: to land on and I went through like every single
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: Deep World Tour guy, and I will say it's kind
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: of hard to find this year's Penge. There isn't a
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: guy who's been consistently good in and around contention who's
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: super super long on the Deep World Tour. The reason
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: that Jaikara is so popular, or is such a like
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: popular guy to at least talk about this week is
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: because he's got two wins and nine top twenty fives
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: this year already, including a top twenty top twenty one
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: finish at the Puerto Rico Open in March. He's won
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: two of his last three starts. He's somewhat long off
• 42:52
  Speaker 3: the tee, but not like a Bomber. I think he's
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: definitely the closest to this year's Penge, which is why
• 42:57
  Speaker 3: he's probably the most likely to get some ownership. But
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: then you've like Aora, who has had some really good performances.
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: He's also got some.
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: Really really bad performances, so like crazy volatile player, he
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: is long off the team. Maybe he's this year's Pinge.
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: Then you've got Duplessis, whose same idea, like he's not
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: as long but also has some really good finishes some
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: really bad finishes, so like he could wreck your lineup,
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: but he could also be the guy who ends up
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: in contention from the Deeper World Tour. Then you have
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: two other like really really long guys who haven't played
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: as well this year, and one of the reasons why
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: they haven't played as well because their iron game sucks.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: And that's Alejandro del Rey and then linn Berg.
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: So they like, as I was going through this kind
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: of list of saying, all right, who's this year's pinge
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: that people are gonna play at a much higher rate
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: than projection models are going to tell them to play,
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: It's like I'll project them at fifteen percent when everyone
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: else is projecting them at five percent. We don't really
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: see who that guy's going to be. Chakr is probably
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: my best guess, maybe Ayora next, But there aren't There
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: definitely isn't like a clear one to one for who
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: this year's panges And that was kind of disappointing on
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: mine because I wanted to have that kind of like
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: ownership advantage and now it's a lot tougher to actually find.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: Well also too, I find like sometimes that's the thing
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: is everybody's looking for, like this year someone and what
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: if it's not any of them, Like what if the
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: board is like a balanced build that's like not including
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: those guys or whatever. And I also wanted to see too,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: like another just a funny example, like where's it at here?
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: I had it up earlier. I'm just trying to find
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: it again. Three strokes and he blew the field out there.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: It looks like outside of Yeah, so Chakar just crushed
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: it at this Italia event at the end of June,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: right he ended up winning, and he shot sixty six
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: sixty five, sixty five sixty four. Matt Wallace came in second.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Neeman was there, but like Aora was fifth at that event,
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: right behind him, like few strokes back. Then you go
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: to the event before that in June, the Kalim Open,
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: which Chakara won, Lindell and third place right behind him,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: like three strokes back Aora again, a Or is the
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: same price bombs it if we're playing bombers here, and
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: he might be one third of his ownership. And it's
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: just an example where if you see that or it
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: lands in some lineups, I'm fine with it. It's if
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out, but just noting,
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: then I think that's where things get so confused. And
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: then and then also I'll use your example from last week.
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: I thought it was a really good one. I heard
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: people comment on it as well. Was like the Novak
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: thing that you talked about. It's like, yes, a game
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: might be better, but is that like, yes, Chakara closed
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: on those two events and won, but Aora came third
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: and fifth in those events. It's like, could he have
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: won those Yes, it's like very possible that he could
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: have done that. It's so on. So maybe the one
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: that he lost by eight strike Chaikaa blew at the
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: field in the most recent one by eight strokes. I think,
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: so my point being, you know, maybe you wouldn't have
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: won that one, but he's just he's right, there's my point.
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: Still playing some really good golf, but people just so automatic,
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: right to go to the well two wins, like that's who,
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: here's what the guy's third and fifth, because like we
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: always say, you you never remember the guys that finished
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: third and fifth, But in pgad Fast, we kind of
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: want the guys that nobody's remembering because like, well kind
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: of remembering that he did finish almost identical to him.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: He costs almost the same and if I need leverage
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: in my lineup, that might be a good spot where
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: I could go to and get pretty much the same
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: situation for a little bit less money. They're actually funny enough.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: I think they're teeing off together. I think you're in
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: the same group.
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: That is interesting on Lin Dell for for a moment,
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: like he's probably been the most consistent performer on the
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: on the dep World Tour this year, or at least
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: one of the most consistent, but he's not long. In fact,
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: he's like he will he will lose considerable strokes in
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: driving distance to this field. So I don't think there's
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: any chance that he's the guy who gets steamed and
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: is popular, But that might make him, you know, one
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: of the best contrarian options if if you still want
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: to go to a deeper World Tour guy. I stump
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: was in here asking like how many euros is too
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: many euros? I think if you're asking, like, are you
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: counting you know, Oberg and Rory and Tommy as as
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: heroes that you can play or are you talking about
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: like deeper World Tour guys because they're I think you
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: definitely want to want to limit yourself because I don't again, like,
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: I don't see anyone at the same class of where
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: Penge was last year at this time in the season
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: where Righting was. Like it fast forward a year from now,
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: I don't see any of these guys having as successful
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: of a year as Wrighton has had on the PGA Tour.
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: And so maybe that'll be wrong, maybe I'll be proven
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: wrong obviously, but I don't think that they are quite
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: as prepared as as those two were a year ago today.
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, one thing I don't think enough gets talked about
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: enough too, is like this, and I know statues brought up.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: I've talked about it for years, but like the fields,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: we know the fields are weaker. I'm just saying, like
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: this matters when you translate. It's like, okay, they're playing
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: in field rating and owgr like aside, I know we
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: can make fun of that for days. My point being like,
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: it's not at least they're how their apples are. It's
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: they may not be the best tasting apples, the ones
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: we would enjoy, but we're like, okay, it's apples to
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: apples on their website to at least consider this and
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: it will show you that the field ratings are right
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: on there, and then you can go to like, okay,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: but what are we up against this week? I mean
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: literally like Scottie Rory, Fitzpatrick, god her Up, et cetera. Yes,
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: you need some of these value plays to make it
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: all work. But I think people just translating like second
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: place in this tournament means they're gonna come over and
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: do well at this one. Will some of them be
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: up there? Yes, but some of the times you are
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: picking like a needle in a haystack, you named off
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: like ten that it could be the next guy. And
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: that's the other thing as well. So it's tricky from
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: that perspective when you think about it.
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: Man, imagine telling someone two months ago that Wyndham Clark
• 48:39
  Speaker 3: would be fifth in the world right now.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: Well, that's that's what I mean.
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: Like, that's crazy.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: Come on, that's just you know Michael Block stuff, Like
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: you know, you just see like him going on about
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: did you see the one recently where you made the
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: par and went like so crazy about it. It's like, dude,
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: you made a par It's like you're not even doing
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: anything and it becomes like a big talking.
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: Point and so I can't stand that guy.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: Oh I can't either. How did this go? By the way,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: I know what happened with the result, but how what
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: he said? We need an update on the bet? How
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: did it end out? Did you have to?
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: It ended with with Stump sending me some money and
• 49:12
  Speaker 3: that money will go into an open Qualify Open Championship
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: giveaway and and uh, I know cat guys doing a
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: giveaway as well, so like that that money will be
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: in there.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: Cabusa is doing it as well.
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: Rhodomania on Draftking, So yeah, there's gonna be a lot
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: of money in the in the Open Championship giveaway, in
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: the in the Black discord.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: I think, uh, Rhodomania another one. I wouldn't say underrated.
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: A lot of people knew Rodomania's but man, what a
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: good player as well, and I think made it through
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: with at least one, if not multiples to the Fantasy
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: Golf World Championship as well. I gotta, I gotta look.
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: But it was a crazy battle down the stretch. There
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: was a lot of money shifting, and then of course
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: with the ten points at the end of you know,
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: up or down however it shakes out. That was another
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: thing also.
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: I can't.
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: I honestly can't remember the last time that, like I
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: was in con tension for a takedown or for a
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: ticket and a satellite, and he wasn't one of the
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: guys I was battling.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: He's just he's always around leader boards.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: It's crazy, especially in the satellites. Rhodomania, I think, can't
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: Fade Me got in another one that's just always right
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: there in those like I just I think that's a tell. Also,
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: by the way, it's I know it's like a bias
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: because we're good at them as well. But if you're
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: good at satellites, I think you're good all around. Like
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: if you have high success in satellites, I mean, obviously
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: it's correlated, but I'm just saying because then you get
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: into the next tournament and all that. But I will
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: say I think the best of the more unknown players,
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: like again, like obviously you're gonna find mock Lovin and
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Uticautan guys like that and all the satellites. But I'm
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: talking about like the can't Fade Me is the Rodomania's yourself.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: There's tons of others I'm just noting, but those that
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: compete and contend in satellites often typically are really good
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: DFS players that I would focus on and see how
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: they play a satellite and review that, because that's not
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: like almost nothing else. You can say, oh, I know
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: this poker player is amazing. I might be able to
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: review if they do content somewhere of like showing me
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: their hand history review. But you could watch them all
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: day and only get to see the hands that they
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: show or that have to be turned over, versus in
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: the you know, in DFS you can go see like
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: exactly what somebody played and figure it out. And even
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: with the sites, you can go back and look and
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: do reviews and be able to see what people are
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: doing if you weren't in the contest, Like how often
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: are you gonna get that opportunity to be able to
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: put the time in? So I think that's incredible as well.
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this this point about satellite is a
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: really good when status alluding to it in the in
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: the chat, but like read it, yeah satellite or the
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: ultimate Barbier approach, But I was I was actually referring
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: to his next one that's second and last pays the same,
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: where like when you're playing a satellite, there is no.
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: There's no urge whatsoever to just.
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: Give yourself a better chance at at cashing it and
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: playing it safe, like you you absolutely have to go
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: for first place. And I think that that just puts
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: you in a mindset more often where you're accustomed to
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: making that type of high risk hygh reward decision all
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: the time that it's then easier to do in the
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: actual contest where you should still be playing it that way.
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: But you do have, you know, that little voice in
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: your head that's saying, well, I you know, especially like
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: if you win a ticket right like now you're playing
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: at stakes that you're not accustomed to and am in cash,
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: will like it'll give you more money than you would
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: invest for the rest of the month outside of that contest.
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: It's therefore like very tempting to play a little bit
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: for the men cash you know you shouldn't. The more
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: you're playing satellites, the more you're getting accustomed to that
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: type of strategy, the less likely you are to then
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: go make the mistake when you're actually in that contest
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: or in any other you know, single entury, major contest, whatever.
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: So I think it does does a really nice job
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: of kind of preparing you for that. Also shout out
• 52:50
  Speaker 3: to cat Guy and Lassachusetts Stump as well. All these
• 52:54
  Speaker 3: guys have kind of been in these satellites all the time,
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: and certainly I would like to think that that's part
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: of our m fluence, right Like they're in the discord,
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: they're watching Leverage Lane each and every week, they're hearing
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: us talk about it. But I also think they all
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: have done a really good job of not just like
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: earlier we talked about how like you can kind of
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: borrow someone else's strategy, and they might borrow elements of
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: a strategy, but then they're also kind of really coming
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: up with their own process, their own lanes, and I
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: think that that kind of like harmony between the two
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: is what really kind of helps people become a next
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: level DFS player.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's why I pulled up a DFS Master running
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: in just because the I've talked about this for years
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: and I know that people that follow me know this,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: But the Secrets of Satellites and Qualifiers is in the
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: foundational part one course with the ten different events, and
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: this is kind of the look of it for those
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: who haven't seen it, Like you can favorite the courses,
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: you can sort up by Sport and see what courses
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: are out there. You can go to the interviews with
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: all the top players. My guy blickels on there will
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: be having another one soon. But you got shaloub Hamhawk,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: em Bellman, the Mehit, might get my friend Jamie Beckler.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: There's a bunch of different interviews on there and you
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: can go check those out case studies for different topics.
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: If you go to like PGA, you could see where
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: my optimizer process is on there and using the sims
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: and all of that type of thing. But realistically just
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: going back to it the secrets of satellites is part
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: of that. And and Stump said it as well. If
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: you're getting a lot of seconds to fifth, you're you're fine.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: I know it's not fine on the on the financial
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: side in the ledger doesn't look fine, But I'm saying
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: you're probably playing to win. It's unfortunate, but it's the
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: way it goes. But you you falling in that first
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: to fifth is no different what I just talked about
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: with Aura up top, like didd Aora want to win
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: those tournaments instead of Chakara winning twice, of course played
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: to win. Probably did everything just fine. It just didn't
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: do as good as Chakara did, and it's not their day,
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: and if they keep playing that way, they'll find their day.
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: But it's the same setup is if it's just like
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: in a top heavy tournament, if you finished third for
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: ten K and seconds twenty and first is fifty or
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: one hundred, it's like, damn, I can't believe I was
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: literally like one point two points off from one hundred K.
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: But it's like you had no control over the finale
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: of that event, and you put yourself in the prime position.
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: It just didn't go your way this time, and other
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: crazy sh it can happen to in other places. I
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: go back to my Masters, where you know, I was
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: hoping to have a shot at the Millie and it's
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: like that one falls apart completely, and then later in
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: the day you're winning. You're bouncing back and forth between
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: one hundred and two hundred K and winning one hundred
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: and forty thousand dollars. It's like, well, that's better than
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: second place in the damn Millie. Like if I had
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: have woke up today and said this is where I stand?
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: Who said that too? Somebody else said? The Rory documentary
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: recently on Amazon about getting the monkey off his back
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: with the first Masters he won two years ago. He said,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: you know, Harry Diamond, his caddy really dialed him back
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: in before that playoff, all because he missed the short putt.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: Now he's got face Rosie in the playoff, and he says, buddy,
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: if we go back to Thursday morning and I say,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: you're right here in a playoff to win your green
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: jacket and complete the career Grand Slam, you say, let's
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: do it, baby, Like, let's go now you're worried about,
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: like I gotta deal with this, And maybe he wasn't,
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: but it's like that will help him calm the nerves.
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: It's the same thing as anything. It's like, you know,
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: you just you'll take the spot that you're in second
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: and fifth. It sucks you want the ticket, you get
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: nothing for it, but man, you've put yourself in that position.
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: And trust me, the best satellite players will tell you.
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: I know, al I've've got a million of them. The
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: second places. Don't even talk about them no more, like
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: it's no point. They're all the time. It's just frustrating
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: what it happens. It's like part of the game.
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: It's especially painful when like it's not you know, second
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: of eleven, it's second of seventy two or second of
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty seven.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: But yeah, and I'm like Stump knows this too.
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: But I think, like personally, I've I've even asked myself, like,
• 56:25
  Speaker 3: do I want to just play satellites, like literally get
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: rid of the traditional defense, just play satellites and then
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: get in the big ones. I think from like a
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: pure financial standpoint, it probably would be better because the obviously,
• 56:37
  Speaker 3: like the expected value is going to be higher when
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: it's a when it's a winner take all, which is
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: what the satellites are, and then it unlocks, like you know,
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: just a massive ceiling when you get into those megas
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: and stuff like that. But I think it would be
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: really difficult, just like mentally, because you do want to
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: be rewarded when you have like, for example, you know
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: this this past Saturday Sunday, or actually two Saturdays ago,
• 57:01
  Speaker 3: two Saturdays ago, and then this past Saturday.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: You know, I.
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: Probably made it a total of around ten thousand dollars
• 57:08
  Speaker 3: on the PGA Showdown contest. I would have lost money
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: if all I was doing was playing satellites because I
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: didn't quite get there, but I had really really good days,
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: so like that would be really really tough to deal
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: with emotionally and psychologically, and so I think like I'm
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: almost playing traditional defess at this point just for peace
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: of mind, which is a weird thing to say.
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a lot more topics we could talk about
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: on it, because I have some thoughts on this one too,
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: but I'm not going to get into all them. But yeah,
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: you know, that's a good point from stats as they
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: often overlay don't feel boosting ev I think there's some
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: other internals on that. I talk about that in the
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: Secret of Satellites. But going back to it, this is
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: the other chalk build I found again, same three guys
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: writing Holguard Fitzpatrick. I just can't get away from seeing
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: how they'll be popular. But this was with Fleetwood, Clark, Chakara, Kim,
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: whoever you want to go to at seventy six hundred. Obviously,
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: if you from Fleetwood down to god Her up, that
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: becomes seventy seven hundred and could be even more guys there.
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: So I guess that's my point. So let's talk about
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: how to leverage this as we round this thing out.
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: What's some of your thoughts on how you want to
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: leverage this type of build, or at least knowing that A.
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: It seems like the top is going to be left
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: alone for the most part, and B six k's will
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: be really spread out. No matter what anyone tells you.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: What will Lindell maybe be more popular than other six
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: K guys, yes, or a Delray or something. A Bomber probably,
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: but it's like we're still talking like four to six
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: percent on these guys. And you go up the middle
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: here and right, and Fitzpatrick and Hogard are just in
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: all those builds. Yeah, I think.
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: The very first thing that I'll say is at basically
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: any price range, but especially in the value range and
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: like the AK range, I feel like I can find
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: a really good course fit at much lower ownership than
• 58:54
  Speaker 3: the actual chalk And so that's the first thought I
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: have here, is like, not even a let's leverage this
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: from a construct standpoint, but just let's play any construction
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: we want and just go play the guys who fit
• 59:04
  Speaker 3: this golf course was basically just means bombers. I always loved,
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: by the way, when when bombers is the course fit,
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: because when bombers are the course fit, you get the
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: like just cherry on top. Bonus of those are also
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: the guys who tend to make birdies and eagles that
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: are really high rate, and so you're getting better DraftKings
• 59:22
  Speaker 3: scoring and better course fit all in one. And uh
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: and so like that's my first thought is just I
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: don't even really need to think about roster construction this week.
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: I can just lean into that and play a pretty
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: contrarian lineup that way.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think from like just a range perspective too,
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: Like I guess we didn't talk about it a ton
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: with like the Scott. The Scotti lineup is seventy two
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: hundred left and again you can build so many lineups
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: the way you just talked about not even need these
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: guys up top. But my point being seventy two hundred
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: per it's I guess it's like, yeah, there's a bunch
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: of combos still, because like pick your poison, it's how
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: you aggress the do you want to go down low?
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: And who are you comfortable with? For somebody that said, well,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: I'm going, you know, way off the board down here,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: I'm not way off the board, but I'm gonna go
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: extra aggressive. I'm gonna go with Lindell del Rey. Well,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: now they've got seventy six hundred left, they've got two
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: six k guys. You know, I get it. But it's
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: like that is one thought process, but it'll be different
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: for sure, because even if you again I don't think
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: you would. I I probably wouldn't. But even if you did,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: land on like writing, it's I don't want to be
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: filling it out like right in Shikara and the same
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: thing everybody else has because I'm already different enough. But
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: I mean saying I could because I'm already different enough.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: But at the same time, you just box yourself into
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: those three v three situations you've talked about so many times,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: and I think people don't really recognize that as a
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: thing where it's like, yeah, we're not saying you're gonna
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: be duped. We're saying you're gonna be really restricted to
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: Like there's only so many Scotty Lindell type lineups and
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: they're all gonna fall into kind of that same bucket.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: So how could you build differently with Scotty if you're
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: going that route. The same thing is to be said
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: for Rory. It's a whoops, I favored him instead but
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: Rory is seventy six hundred left. It's like a totally
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: different story. Because this is what I'll show you is
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: when you go right back down, I'm just gonna use
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: the same example and you go to Lindell and del Rey,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: it's you now have eighty three hundred. Like that's a
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: way where you can get completely different where the Scotty
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: one is probably more boxed in. How many of the
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: Roys are doing this? And then wait a minute, are
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: some of these gonna get really aggressive and say, well
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: I want Rory and got her Up? And I still
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: might want another man, Like can can I get more
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: into this? I don't know, Oh wow, I could take
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: on extra risk, And like how many people are gonna
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: start with? I guess I'll do it a better way
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: now I know the real numbers. How many people are
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: gonna start with got her Up? Clark? Like we said,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: not a huge percentage, but a percentage versus how many
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: you are gonna have those as number two and three
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: into the build. And yes you're taking on more risk,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: but it's just to see when you look at the numbers,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: I'm just gonna make up a random.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: I'm thinking also, if they're if they're two and three
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: in the build, it's almost always gonna be Xander, Oberger,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: Tommy who's first, and not Rory.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: Right, That's what I'm saying. Yeah, you've you've made it
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit more succinct at the end there. But
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: I guess my point is most these sixty four hundred
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: dollars golfers are forty to fifty points. I'm not gonna
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: fill it out, but I'm saying you're still getting to
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: like three sixty five to three seventy five. It's not
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: very far from the three eighty five we started at
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: with the ultra chalk build. Yet you're doing multiple things.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: You're skipping the seven k eight K range altogether, you're
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: using got her up as a second golfer in but
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: not with a Oberg or Fleetwood or Xander on top,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: with a Rory on top, and then you can start
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: to make moves from there, and then of course like this,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: I think it's fine. So I think in reality there's
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: a bunch of different ways that you can do it.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: But right out of the gate, the first thought for
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: me is using more of these guys up top, especially
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: if we think their ownership is coming down some I'll
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: be very interested to see tomorrow when we do the
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: final draft of the Stone, where I want to see
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: what the optimal percentages are where we're using like the
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: simulation driven data, mixing it and trying to see he
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: sort of what this looks like over ten thousand sims,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: to see what the optimal rate is for these golfers,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: because we've seen times where like I'm sure you've seen
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: this a ton Scotty has all the win equity, and
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, actually it was your original point of the
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: season the first time I and only time I think
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: that I disagree with you fully on something and it
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: didn't work out in my favor. I'll tell you that much.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: But my point being, Scotty has massive win equity. But
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: then you see his optimal rate and it's worse than
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: the guys below him, because it's like, well, yeah, but
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: you can't really build good lineups with him. He's just
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: way more likely to win. So and then people assume
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: that it's like it's just so many myths around that,
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: like if you have the way, you gotta have the winner.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: Not always the case, especially when they're fourteen k if
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: if Scotty's fourteen k he's got to win. It's like
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: the contred to that. It's like, well, yeah, but you don't. Actually,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: we've seen it where Scotty's been on winning lineups and
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: all these guys fail and still Scotty shows up like
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: eight and does quite well. So it's like it's all
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: dependent or more of the value plays come through that
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: to nothing. People confuse, They're like, how did Scotty come
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: t ten but he showed up on the winner? That's crazy.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: It's like, yeah, they probably had the winner or second
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: place or something up the middle, but it's like the
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: balanced version with the winner or the second place didn't
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: have a good build and have the other plays come
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: through or end up having a good build I should say,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: results wise, but it's like all the values crushed. So
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: it's like, well Scotty was tenth ten of the values
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: finished in the top twenty, and it's like, well, those
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: all fit well with Scotty builds. So it's like that's
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: why it matters so much what everybody else is doing
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: and what you think about the rest of the board.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: The Chess Master example again of like what are my
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: moves thinking ahead versus what's my move right now? Yes,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: you do have to make the move right now, but
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: you should be thinking ahead about what's gonna be happening
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: and how it would all play out. So that to
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: me ties in as well, same reason that a birdie
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: fest high variance you can take on less chalk because
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be higher variance and three em open as
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: an example, a ton of water out there. You know,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: That's why Alex said earlier the course a little bit
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: harder for him, and you know, Pat made the joke
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: will bring extra balls. I guess that's true. But the
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: other side, or the flip side to it is also
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: that there's gonna be a bunch of birdies and munch
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: of scoring out there, and they're all getting to play
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: the same thirty six holes before the cut. So it's
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: like there's those guys can come through with the variants
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: and being able to score and it just happens, And
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: so sometimes those builds can come through in your favor.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: Was there anything Alex with the eight K range outside
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: of I think what I noticed for sure this show
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: is like the whole guard thing unavoidable that's gonna hit
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: with ownership whether we like it or not, It's gonna
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: fall in place. Because there's gonna be some people to
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: play just him and none of the other two. They're
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: gonna play all three, They're gonna play two of them.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: He's gonna be in the mix. But I do think
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: there's a chance that Hatten and min Wu the two
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: that I think would be the most likely to be
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: popular after that, maybe Kidiamic as the bomber angle, but
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: just noting it, I think they're gonna be more held
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: in check than we think because you just don't see
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of lineups with the eight K guys. Do
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: you think there's any validity this week to that balance build,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: being that it's still a tough field, tricky track overseas,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: you know, different factors anything else with the AK guys.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a good question. I was actually gonna go
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: on a kind of a different min Wu Tang, but.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: We'll do that next.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think there's a chance there.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: I would say, like the entire uper eight K range
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: has a fairly wide range of outcomes ownership wise, where
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: I think all of them could really get squeezed. Like
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: we already talked about how much ownership competition there is
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: between like Wyndham got her up, Tommy Oberg, Shotley, and Fitzpatrick.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 3: I'll throw Fitzpatrick in there too, where like maybe everyone
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: just decides, yeah, I just need as much of the
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: nine K range as I can get that chooses not
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: to pay up for one of the top three uh
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: And therefore, like this entire uper eight k range just
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: all comes in way lower than expected. So JT's lower
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: than expected, Patton's lower than expected. I think Hobland has
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: a chance to get higher than expected. I think kant
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: Ley has a chance to steam, Kidi Yama probably has
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: a chance to steam. And then I do think min
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: Wu has a chance to steam, just because everyone knows
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: that min Wu is a bomber, which is actually kind
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: of the next point that I wanted to get to
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: a bout min Wou because it's I think it's a
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 3: pretty interesting one.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: We'll go there in one second. And because min Wu
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: came up in this comment. But Scooter's back and says
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: Hatton might be getting too much attention to Moonlok. That's
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: why I said held in check, Like I think the
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: number could end up being accurate as opposed to steaming.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: Maybe he doesn't moonlock because he's the one guy in
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: there that people just can't move off of and I
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: don't know, like we'll get to the min with things. Says,
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: I can see min Wu slipping. Definitely think that's something
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: in hand projecting, like he's talking about handbuilds, but not
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: in projection builds. True. But then to Jordan's point, like
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: he says, he seems to fit everything. He fit almost
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: nothing that we built. Could he fit everything? Yes, that's
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: why it's always tricky to see. But when we were
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: looking at it from almost every angle, none of those
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: went with Hatton. It's not to say that when someone says, Okay,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Rory and skip the nine K range,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: we'll fine. Yeah, they're probably picking Hatton and they're making
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: your choices. So I look, I think the ownership numbers
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: close to right. Well, I don't what do you have
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: him at right now? Just using the early.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: Numbers for Hatton?
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, fourteen right for Hatton, I have a fifteen percent
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 3: of out of it you're asking about, Yeah, sorry.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: Hatton, Yeah, okay, so we're more close. But I think
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: that's all I'm saying is and we've seen this before
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: where it's like, oh, Fleetwood fits everything at a major
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: at eighty six hundred, everyone's gonna be on him, and
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: then he just locks in it like fifteen sixteen percent.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: It's like, yeah, he's still definitely owned, but it's like
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: he didn't get to the twenty plus that you were thinking,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: and I just don't see that being the case here.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: I also think before the Minmu thing, it's like pretty
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: interesting because you mentioned Hobland's name.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: Like.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: Fleetwood got her up. Clark could be a start, but
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: this is where I know. It's like it doesn't have
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: the same win equity technically on paper, but does Like,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: first of all, Tommy's win equity is always a disaster.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: What what win equity? Like the guy won the FedEx
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: Cup with thirty guys, I think he's a phenomenal player,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: probably a way better human being. I mean him and
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: his son and things like that, just hanging out and
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: chat like a great person. We're not talking about that here.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: My point being like Hobland just won, McIntyre's won this tournament.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: Hatton's maybe under priced, but like how many people are
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: gonna start with Hobland McIntyre Hatton? And then again, just
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: don't go play the same three dudes that everyone else
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: is playing, And you could have a pretty good lie.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: I'm still I think if the Rory and the Scotti's
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: or the pieces that go with them don't come through
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: as much as everybody else think it's going to happen.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: So just my two cents, well, let's do the minmu rant.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't really call it a rant, but I think
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: it's really interesting that. Like, so his his stroke skin
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: driving distance estimate.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: For me is now not great.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: He's at point one point nine for context, Like that's
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: less than Pearson Coodie. That's way below Michael Brannan, way
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: below got her up. It's slightly ahead of Wyndham Clark,
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 3: who hit such a big cut that he you know,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 3: costs himself probably ten to fifteen yards. It's in line
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 3: with Oberg and Shoffley. So but if you look at
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: his ball speed, his ball speed's way above that. And
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: I think two things are going on. Number one, he
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 3: has really increased his spin rate off the tee. It
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: is not clear if that's just he's hitting a lot
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: of mini drivers and the mini spins more and he's
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 3: doing this specifically so that he can be a little
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 3: bit more accurate, or if that's the driver spinning more
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 3: and again, like he's doing this to be more accurate,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 3: where now he gets on a course where you can
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: it's a little bit more for giving off the tee
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: distance is so rewarded. Can he come in this week
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 3: and like if it's if it's the mini driver that's
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: causing the extra spin, Now he just hits the big driver,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: spins the ball less and gains you know, zero point
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: three to three per round instead of point one to
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: nine per round. And it doesn't seem like that's a
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: big difference, but it actually is a big difference when
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 3: you add it up throughout the week and when you
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: consider like how advantageous distance is at this golf course.
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 3: So it's just one of those things where like as
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: as much time and effort as I put into projection models,
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: I think this is one of those like very clear
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: instances where you really have to deviate from the projections.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: Just think about it from a golf perspective and and
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: kind of think through, well, what does that do for
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 3: his actual range of outcomes if he does, you know,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: add let's say twenty yards this week, knowing that he
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: can and he doesn't have to care so much about
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: keeping the ball in play, so on and so forth.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: So I just thought it was like an interesting kind
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: of projection discussion, but also specific to min Wu because
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: he doesn't project well. He doesn't have a good GPP score.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 3: But if you think that his distance is being underrated
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: by the model, that could turn him into one of
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: the better plays this week.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I forgot the super conversation room last week and
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: then Super end up having a good week. Right, So
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: of course the first the week before it was harmon.
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: Last week people were tagging me on the super stuff.
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: I'm like, buddy, it's just points being alex analytics. We'll
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: call it. Is this you're analyzing it, explaining why it's
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: nobody's gonna be right all the time or understand. Otherwise
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: you'd literally just print. You'd be able to just bet
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: and win all the money. It's like, it's so easy
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: if that was the case. But I think that was
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: a conversation people brought up. Maybe that's this week's min Wu.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: But I have some other thoughts all the well.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: Also, like the super conversation, I don't think you can have.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: It's it's wrong to have like a super conversation and
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: then a Novak conversation and then a Coaven conversation, you
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: need to have them all together, right, Like they were
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 3: all huge chalk. We're kind of talking about them in
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 3: the context of their ownership, and like you can't simultaneously say, oh,
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 3: what a great call on fading Novak and fading Coven,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 3: but then what a horrible call on Super Like they're
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: they're the same motivation, right, and so uh it just
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 3: it shows that, yeah, like if that kind of decision
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 3: is going to have really good outcomes and really bad outcomes,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: and are you are you getting enough good outcomes to
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 3: justify the bad ones? And I think last week was
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: was absolutely one of those weeks where the good outcomes
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: made the bad outcome absolutely worthwhile. It was just I
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: didn't have good enough plays of my own to kind
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 3: of take advantage of those good fads.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: Agreed, And I love the part you said, like you know,
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: you get two ou of the three nail it and
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: then like ones off and it's like, oh man, you loser,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: Like you can't go one hundred percent all the time,
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: Like what's wrong with you? It's like that's that's how
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: it gets. That's why it's just not even worth getting
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: into the picks and plays side of it. But I
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: think what is interesting is like on the min Wu
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: front again, just like what is it really stemming from?
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: Like his recent form is sixty second miscut, miscut some
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: eighteenth places. Oh, but he won here back in twenty
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: twenty one, Like okay, I looked at it. First of all,
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: he lost stro he almost I think he barely gained
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: off the tee. He gained heavy with the putter and
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: around the green, which is fine, that's what it takes
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: to win a golf tournament. But if you look at
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: the last six five years plus since then, of like
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: when this was, he's gained with the putter like fifteen times.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: That way, it's not gonna be like a common occurrence.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: He's not in his best form. So like somebody said
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: it here like uh, you know, chat let me know
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: if they already did. He says, can you guys go
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: over with the argument against I don't know, iwan eras
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: poos or peeze your puig, you know, whatever you want
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: to say. But he says, doesn't he fit the model
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: what we're looking for bomber putter? How is he different
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: than Nico and min Wu? I think that's like again,
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: if that's how you think about it and feel. I mean,
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: clearly his ownership is going to be less than those two.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: He splits the difference on them, and I think it's
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: more than five because people are nut comfortable they want
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: him at seventy five hundred more than they want him
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: at eighty one hundred. That's that's the thing with him.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I do think Poosia is a pretty good play.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: I would say that, like, I'm not necessarily looking for
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: Bomber Putter. I'm looking for bomber irons more than than
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 3: Bomber Putter. And uh, and that is Pooja's weakness is
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 3: he's not a very good iron player.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: His irons have been really bad of late.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: So but neither is min Wu really right?
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: Like what correct? Yes?
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: So, so like that's that's probably the thing that keeps
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 3: me off when min Wu. But I would also say that,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: like these guys that we're we're talking about right now,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: min Wu, I saw someone say like Chakaro could be
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: this week's Super. I would also say, uh, like all
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 3: of these guys probably don't qualify as this week super
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 3: because I don't think that any of them are going
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: to get to that level of ownership. Certainly not like
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 3: this week in Novak, So I would say that Nikolai
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: and maybe Alex Fitzpatrick, maybe Tom Kim or more. Actually yeah,
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: I'll go Nikolai and Tom Kim. I think are are
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 3: the probably the best examples of this week's.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: Uh super and Novak.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah what let me look here at So like Tom Kim,
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: this has to be hilarious, but yeah, what's he gonna have.
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: It's like if the iron show up like they have been,
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: then good, but it's if he doesn't, it's like, man,
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: that's bad. And also his ownership is saying it's like
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: he's gonna be this you know, second coming of what
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: he was and we're gonna get more out of him,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: and I just again that's just assumptions. But there's literally
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: a massive seven k range this week. It's not like
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: we're down to the twenty person seven k range. We
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: have like fifty golfers in there or something. And he's
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: you know, been fine, been really good here the last
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: four years. But it's you know, that's like saying men
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: who won here four years ago and then was here
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: for three years, So that could just flip on a
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: dime as well. So I don't know if you want
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: to add to the Tom Kim stuff, but just the
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: prime example.
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, And I mean he's just like from a course
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 3: fit perspective, right, like, yeah, the history is good, but
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 3: distance is the separating skill. Like so so clearly here
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: and Tom Kim's gonna lose strokes with his distance to
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: this field, So I will I will bet against the
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 3: Irons remaining that hot. Now, the really strong iron play,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: both historically and recently does make up for that lack
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 3: of distance to some degree, and it does mean Like
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 3: I'm certainly not saying that Tom Kim is like terrible
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 3: chalk and he's an auto fad or anything like that.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 3: I just think he's probably the closest example to Super
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: last week, where like, yeah, there are things that point
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 3: to him being a pretty good play, but there's also
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: enough downside here where like it could go very poorly
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: for people. And That's what I'm trying to do, right,
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to take advantage of the field as a whole,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 3: just being on a number of guys who really kind
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: of bust. And now I happen to get six for
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 3: six through the cut, five percent of the field has
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 3: six for six and that puts me in a really
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 3: good position, and I'm always gonna play that way rather
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: than trying to have the best six for six for
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 3: the week when twenty five percent or twenty percent of
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: the field also has six for six. Like, It's just
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: it's such a path of least resistance to try and
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 3: go for those takedowns by competing against five percent of
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 3: the field on the weekend rather than twenty five percent.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what we want. I mean, it didn't fully
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: work a live worked out for the Fantasy Golf World
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: Championship side of things for you, But for the other side,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: it didn't. Man, what a what a week? Like, we're
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: waiting for those five percent six of six weeks and
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: this could be another one. A lot of variants, a
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: lot of thoughts around that here. My dad just texted
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: me is one and done for the week? So we'll
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: use that for our one and done segment quick, He says,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: I'll take Bobby Mack for the Mayo Cup, so he's
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: in on the Bobby Mack narrative in the history and
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: all that stuff. What's your thoughts on one and done
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: for this week?
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think let's see it.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 3: Even though this is an awesome field, like this this
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: is this is a week that is really really frustrating
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 3: from a one and done perspective because.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: The payout kind of stinks.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 3: But you have to have someone beat like all the
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: best players in the world, so very difficult in that regard.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: I definitely think we want to lean into distance. We
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: got to find a bomber of some sort. Let's see
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: who we have, so like we we can't use Rory
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: or rom here, even that we have them available, saying
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: with Oberg kind of got to save those guys.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: I think we could go to wind them, but that's.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 3: A little bit tough because although like I think he
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: was so low owned at the US Open that we're
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: not really competing with people who had him there.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: So I think Wyndham is a fine, fine play. Let's see, um.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: Is the prize pool right, Like, it's like you're not
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: getting a ton of money for any of these guys,
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: like to burn them. I know, we only have so
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: many events left, but with playoff events and with the
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: Open and all these other factors, I guess like some
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: many will think like ram or Hatten, because if you're
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: not using them at the Open, this is your last
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: shot to use them. But what's the delta on like
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: their ownership versus that thought process versus the truth. You
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: can't really play them very many spots.
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think that they'll be that high because
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 3: I think number one, like Rom has Rum, has already
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 3: been used by fifty two percent of people in the PME,
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: and I think the vast majority of people who haven't
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 3: used him, if they are going to use him, they're
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 3: going to use him at a major championship. So I
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 3: don't think that he'll be super popular this week, which
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 3: does make him a bit of an intriguing idea because
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 3: you get the same thing like especially, I think you
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 3: want to use Rom this week if you just feel
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 3: like he doesn't.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: He doesn't.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: He's not in good enough form for you to to
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: really have faith in him at a major championship when
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: you're going for that huge prize school, So you're more
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: willing to burn him in a in a lower price
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 3: pool like this because you already know, Hey, i'd rather
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 3: play you know, Axander Schoffley or Tommy Fleetwood or Rory
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 3: or Scotty if you still have him. Only five percent
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: have Scottie remaining, so that's und likely. But I think
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 3: you get what I'm saying, right, He's like, you know,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: maybe you already know you're not going to use him
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 3: in a major championship, so now you're you're de signing between.
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 2: Ram and Minwu Lee or Kirk Kidiyama or.
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: Getting the talent level. But like David said, like what
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: are you saving wrong for? It's like you're using him
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: this week or next and if you're not, we're like, again,
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: he's already so used, not like as much as you think.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: He say he's like fifty percent remaining, but some of
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: those are saving him for that next week. And even
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: if he is like twenty percent this week, it's like
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: it is it the worst? I don't know, but it's
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: like you're still getting upper talent for event that you're
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: not getting upper money for anyway, And if you weren't
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: going to use him next week, it's worth using him
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: for that reasoning. So it's like, I actually have no
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: problem with Ram if we have.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we do have him.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: I think that's a good idea because the other thing
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 3: is like we're not in good shape obviously for.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: One and done.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: I think everyone who's been following along knows that we
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 3: have stunk it up this year and when it done.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 3: So I don't think we want Rum in a major anyway,
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: because he's still gonna be like twenty to twenty five
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 3: percent per major championship. Actually, we're through three, so he's
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 3: probably gonna be I would say fifteen to twenty in
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: in the Open championship, given how how owned he's been
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: so far, So like, do we really want him in
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 3: the most point not to.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: Take, But that's a really good point because what again
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: people won't consider I don't think very often is like
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: that's it's not about rom and you're allowed to use him,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: and that's like the last spot you can et cetera.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: Siety like that's the obvious. It's again I don't think
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: people consider enough, even though it's like more common now,
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: But like the prize pool and what it's worth if
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: there's only one major left and again I know there's
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: some other big prize pools of the playoffs, and say like,
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: if there's only one big major event left with the
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: prize pool that big, I don't want a fifteen to
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: twenty percent guy at that. I want a separator if
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: I'm only if I need to get the money if
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: we're behind, which most people are including us. I want
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: to get the most money with a lower owned guy
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: next week that all those raw bust. And even if
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: we do get the same fifteen to twenty percent ownership
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: with him this week, it's he's probably got the best
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: shot out of the x amount of people. More like
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: happy that summer, saving him for next week, where we
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: would want to get unique next week to try and
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: pick up the most amount of money, like four million
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: plus at one to two percent ownership, to make upground
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: that others can't pick up on us, to even give
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: us a shot to cash and get into it and
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: see what we can do down the stretch. So I
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: think that's another really good point.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 3: Also, I didn't even think of this, but now now
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 3: that I have, like, I love this thought. Is we
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: take herem'm here. Let's say he's five to ten percent
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: and he wins. That's awesome for us. Also it means
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 3: he's not gonna be fifteen percent next week. He's gonna
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 3: be thirty percent next week. Yeah, so he goes on
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 3: to next week and bust. Like, now we're in awesome
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 3: shape if we can double up with a win here
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: and a win there, like all of a sudden we're
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: right back in the mix. So yeah, I think this
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 3: is a this is the kind of the path because
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 3: it's it's it's it's actually like, it's not just about
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: this week, but it's also about making sure that he's
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: as owned as possible next week and then hopefully he
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 3: busts for all of those people when we're not using him.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 2: I really like that thought. So yeah, let's lock and run.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it helps us more than it hurts us, for sure,
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: and that's why it's a good game to play, whereas
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: like DFS, it's like we just need to figure it
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 1: out for this week and then same example, next week,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: Ram will be more popular. We'll see when pricing comes
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: out what he's out. If he wins this week, we'll
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: be Yeah, yes, some of that carries over, but there's
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: also so many more decisions that go with it when
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: you've got a full lineup to build and roster construction
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: and salary constrained, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, and
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: could be wave advantages and all these different things. So yeah,
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: we'll talk more on that next week. We'll have the
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: Open Show betting breakdown, any anything from the betting side
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: this week, and you need to go one hundred percent
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: whatever you bring because otherwise the people are coming for you.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: Dude, I have no bets yet this week. It's it's
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 2: so weird. Yeah.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 3: I ran my stuff, and I was so in lockstep
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 3: with the market except on one guy. I showed a
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 3: big edge on Scotti Scheffler. I don't want to bet
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 3: Scottie Scheffler, so I don't have anything at the moment.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: I might end up just betting Scotty and trusting the numbers.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna I will run things again. I'm hopeful that,
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: like you know, there are a lot of guys who
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 3: were just under the kind of typical edge that I
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: use whether or not to bet it, and maybe they'll
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 3: slip a little bit in the odds and I'll then
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 3: just get on those guys. So I am going to
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 3: look out for that. But I would also say I
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 3: think the larger point for the betting breakdown this week
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: is it's a phenomenal underdog week and just in general
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: props week. This is where last year we had our
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 3: biggest underdog week of the year because the wind was
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 3: very it was like twenty miles an hour. I can't
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 3: remember if it was Saturday or Sunday, but it sounds
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 3: like they reversed the nine. So last year was the
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: back nine, this year it'll be the front nine. But
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 3: there were two holes. It might have been like fifteen
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: and sixteen or fourteen and fifteen last year. I can't
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 3: remember exactly what it was. But one goes one direction,
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 3: the other goes the other direction. And we we knew
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 3: the wind was shifting one hundred and eighty degrees throughout
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 3: the day, and Underdog was pricing both holes like the
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: morning for the afternoon guys. And so the one hole
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 3: was playing like point two under par early and it
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 3: played point eight over par late. The other was playing
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 3: point nine over par early and played like I think
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 3: it was dead even par late. And so we just
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 3: had these like two holes that they massively, massively, massively mispriced.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: We're probably not going to get such a perfect opportunity
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 3: this week and this year they've been doing like back nine,
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 3: front nine and you know, sixteen through eighteen rather than
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 3: specific holes like they did last year, maybe because we
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 3: took so much of their money when they did that.
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 3: But those kinds of opportunities are still going to come
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 3: up because when you get overseas, you just get more
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 3: of a of a weather kind of lens and angle
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 3: from week to week. And also you get those bigger
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 3: changes day to day like we almost saw at Chinnacock.
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 3: But the typically in a PGA Tour event we just
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 3: don't get. And so I'm very much looking forward to
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 3: this week from an underdog perspective. And uh and and
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 3: that makes me a little bit okay if I don't.
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: Have an outright this week.
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the Scottie six to one too, Just
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: like you said, somebody's just gotta drop that on him
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: and just see.
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: What I see him to six.
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: Now that's what I'm seeing.
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: Oh man, Okay, so he got he was already showing
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 3: an edge and now he got even better.
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: Maybe I will have to just bet Scotty.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah looks good to me. So yeah, I'm fine with that.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: I think good good with that. And then the other
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: thing is the.
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 3: I like the I like the comment from from Nick
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 3: and the chat. Adam Scott, by the way, was one
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 3: of the guys who was was close but not quite
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 3: a good enough bet to make.
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's what we do, We bet both Scotti's Adam Scott,
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: I thot Scotty. It's tough to like really add more
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: to your card. But it's just saying, maybe you get
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: a Adam Scott within each way in there as like
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: a little bonus, and maybe you pick him up both
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: and Scotty wins with Adam Scott right behind him. But
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: I think that's, yeah, a thought just for here. Let's
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: get to our lane for the week, our leverage lane.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: I'll kick it off. I'm gonna run it back from
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 1: last week with the fade list. But I will tell
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: you right now, in my main I won't have Nico,
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: i won't have Fitzpatrick, I won't have Rton, and I
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: won't have Chakara. In my two hundred dollars singlentry, I'll
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: give you four this week. I'm gonna take all four
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: of those out. It's mainly just because there's so many
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: constructions I like better, and I also think I'm more
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: comfortable with some of those mid range seven gay guys.
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: We didn't talk about all them, but it's just like
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: noting it like there's just so many guys in the
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 1: upper sevens and lower sevens that aren't part of that
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: chalk crew that there's like just much better golfers. I'll
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: give you an example of last week instead. But like
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: last week, I remember there's a TWOV two and it
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: was like there was a week before last I can't remember,
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: but it was min Wu and Girard, so it might
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 1: have been two weeks ago, but it was Minmu and Gerard.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: Or you could play Hideki and Lowry at the same money,
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: and I already knew about Lowry's Sunday fails, and I
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 1: was like, you know what, even still I would still
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: rather have Hideki and Lowry for the same money as
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: like Min Wu and Ryan Girard. And it ended up
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: beating it. And it was just you know, two percent
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: and three percent or something like that versus like ten
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: and twelve percent. It's like just such a massive gap.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: A projection said, you have to play these guys, like
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: that's what I want to lead you to, and it
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 1: was just like sometimes you just want to go with
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: the better golfers. We've mentioned Fitzpatrick right, and they're having
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: phenomenal seasons, incredible golfers. Like again you're talking about all
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: these great golfers. But when you can split the difference
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: with you know, read Pene, Scott Lowry, Rye again pick
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 1: your poison. And I'm just saying it's like any of
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: those guys can show up overseas the what the what's
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: the story? Let's just use this one? And he didn't
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: no ownership this week? What is the story with uh
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rye? Well, what the hell's the difference between Aaron
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: Rye and Min Mouleie? You actually get a discount. He
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: won this thing in twenty twenty, and it's been at
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: this course since nineteen. It was the Aberdeen back then
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: versus the Genesis. I get it, But like he had
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 1: a fourth here two years ago, he had a win
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: recently and eleventh, thirtieth and nineteenth, what's the interest between
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: those two? And you get four hunderd bucks in your pocket?
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: Like it's the same thing.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: I don't like the like for sure, but just noting it.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 3: I don't like the lack of distance. But he's another
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 3: one of those guys where like, yeah, his iron play
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 3: does make up for that, and obviously he has the
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 3: awesome Contention performance score and the field is totally off
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 3: of him because.
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: Of that lack of distance.
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 3: Right, So one of the things we always talk about
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 3: is like, is what you're saying already priced in. Is
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 3: it priced into the ownership? Is it priced into the
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 3: actual price? And in Ry's case, it's not necessarily priced
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 3: into the price, but it is fully priced into the ownership.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 3: So you know, the lack of distance certainly isn't an
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 3: end all be all for him. He can still play
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 3: really well. He's already Like the other thing is, you
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 3: know he's done that in the past. He gets on
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 3: golf courses that the like there's a huge distance signal
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 3: and he still plays well. Why because he ends up
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 3: like competitive with the field from one hundred and eighty
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 3: yards when they're hitting one hundred and forty yards and
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 3: he's just good enough from that range to stay in it.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: And so so yeah, I like that call. And yeah,
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: I think it's uh, he.
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: Can make the four or five footers too, we know
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: needs to. It's not because you know, again that's more
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: of a skills that have been putting as a whole
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: if you look at his numbers. But I'm just saying
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: he's obviously very capable. He's decent around the greens. It's
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: like just an example. I'm not saying he's my guy.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying for those out there thinking from different perspectives. Yeah,
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: outside of the distance and the course fit stuff, he's
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: still got enough that he can make up for it elsewhere.
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 1: But a lot of the stuff people are citing for
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: min Wus related to, like the other things and the
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: narratives and like those would all be fit by Ry
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: with way better form coming in.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 3: So Brandon, my my lovage lane is very similar to yours,
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 3: and it works really well with yours.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: Because mine is cheap bombers.
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 3: And so if you're not playing these the really popular
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 3: guys around eight K, one of the easy ways to
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 3: pivot is two cheap bombers and so it's a long
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: list like Adam Scott, Marco Pinch, Jake Knapp NAP's been
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 3: shouted out by Stump and two others I believe in
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 3: the chat so far today Coody Thorpe Bjornson Brennan, Rasmus
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 3: Hoygarden said, and Nikolai like there are lots of really
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 3: cheap guys who hit the ball along way. Grazerman is
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 3: another one some of the deep world tour guys that
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 3: we mentioned, Like, I think Ayura certainly fits that. Del
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 3: Ray Lindberg if you want to get really kind of
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 3: off off the board and risky with those guys, although
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 3: I would argue that maybe those guys are just as
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 3: risky or even less risky than Rasmus Hoyguard, who is
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: as bomb as boom or bust as like anyone could
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 3: possibly be in the history of PGA DFS is Rasmus Hoyguard.
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 3: But yeah, like I wouldn't necessarily go pot Geter because
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 3: I think he's going to get enough ownership that like,
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 3: no thanks, but like honestly, like you could go Keefer,
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 3: you could go Kevin.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: You down here, there are lots of really good options.
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 3: Yes, PRIs Vencent's coming up too, He's coming up two
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 3: really good starts in a row. So like if there's
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 3: ever a time to play, yesper Like, if you remember
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 3: earlier in the season, this may have been a discussion
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 3: I had with Pat actually now that I'm thinking about.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 3: But like, the only good event that he had at
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 3: one point this season was when he went over and
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 3: uh and played another deep World Tour event. So maybe
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: he just needs to get out of the US. But
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 3: now you know, he he played well with the at
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 3: the Byron Nelson then went up to Canada and got forth,
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 3: So maybe maybe like off of us. Soil really is
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 3: good for him and this could be good, but I
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 3: think more so for me rather than that is like, hey,
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 3: he's actually now strung together two really good tournaments in
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 3: a row.
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 2: The driving is certainly what we're looking for.
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 3: He's one of the longest guys in the field, and
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: this is a golf course that really.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: Rewards that skill set.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 3: So I actually think that he's a pretty good play
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 3: this week, regardless of ownership. So yeah, I think that's
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 3: gonna be my Leviage million. That opens the door, by
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 3: the way, for a potential Scottie lineup, a Rory lineup,
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 3: something like that. And I do think I will have
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 3: one of Scotty or Rory unless the unless my ownership
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 3: really changes, and I actually think that those two are
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 3: going to get more of the love and it's going
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 3: to be less of that kind of shoftly Obert Fleetwood
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 3: tier that currently I expect to get more than those
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 3: top two studs.
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I love that lane. You guys, we're gonna wrap this,
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: but you gave like a nice list there, but just
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: to show like this is this that I do like.
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: When I hear this stuff and think about it, it's
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: like Okay, well what does that do? Right? Let me
• 1:33:06
  Speaker 1: actually just not just talk about it. Let's be about
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: it for a second. And you put just two of
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: them in. I just threw a yes for and you
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: two that you talk about playing good lately can bombit
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: out there, have a good spot, like just go with
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: some of what most people would think, like, Okay, now
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: I've got nine thousand and seventy five Scotty seventy four hundred,
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be able to touch right above and below
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: the instead of eating seventy nine, seventy nine and eight
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 1: or the seventy six hundred dollars chalk guys, I can
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: keep going with that mid range that I just talked
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: about and be fine. And I'm not even getting too aggressive.
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: I'm just using two. I can go rory eighty one hundred.
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: Now many would land on those same three dudes, but
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: I can also go just below them with some of
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 1: that crew we talked about, and wherever I land in
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: the upper eight K or maybe even get to a
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 1: nine K guy, it's possible, or go down to another
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: six K guy. And then if you just want to
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: build the mid range, it's like you can get all
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 1: the dudes that we talked about in there and just
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: see what that looks like. So there's just so many
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: ways to go with that build and none of it
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 1: requires Chakara right and Fitzpatrick Holguard And that's just using
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: four very popular names. But that goes back to the
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: earlier one we talked about with like Jackson, coyven, uh,
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: Super Jackson, Super and Novak. It's like, maybe you don't
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: get them all right, but most people have two to
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: three of them in their lineup, and you're you just
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 1: need like two or three of them to bust and
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: the other one can be fine. You might not need them.
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 3: I'm chuckling at this, at this comment from Monday Dynamo
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 3: where it's it's a little bit borderline with the joke,
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 3: but that that last line I was not expecting and
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 3: it made me laugh for sure.
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, to help them find water. Yeah, he's on Sundays. Uh,
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 1: it's really bad for Lowry, But yeah, I think it's
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: a good version of leverage Lane Man. I like going
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: through it from this perspective. I think there's a lot
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: of good takeaways. Hopefully everybody enjoyed it. Let the people
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: know a little bit more about where they can find
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: you and then we'll get out of here for today.
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I actually do uh kind of the the big,
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 3: the big announcement here, which is for the rest of
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 3: the PGA season, all of my ownership and projections are
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 3: available now in my discord and so definitely find that.
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 3: And that's where it's going to be for this NFL
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 3: season and for NFL season like starting in September. That
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 3: means the prices are going to go up, but anyone
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 3: who's an existing subscriber will not see a price increase.
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 3: So I think this is the perfect time to get in.
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: You get in with leverage with promo code, leverage for
• 1:35:23
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• 1:35:26
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• 1:35:29
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• 1:35:31
  Speaker 3: advanced kind of roster construction stuff, and now you will
• 1:35:36
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• 1:35:40
  Speaker 3: you get the Open Championship, FedEx Cup playoffs, and then
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 3: you get a discounted price all through NFL season. So
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 3: reminder to people, the way you find that is go
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 3: to my Twitter at Alex Blickle one click the link
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 3: to the discord and then sign up with promo code
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 3: leverage for ten percent off forever.
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely check that out. If you guys want to
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: check out shibernation dot com, the promo is there forty one.
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: Like Alex said, the timing for everything is good because
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: you've got this week is big, the major is big,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: you'll get into the playoffs. All that stuff are all access.
• 1:36:08
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• 1:36:11
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• 1:36:13
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  Speaker 1: you guys can check that out. Go to ship a
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 1: Nation dot com no code required, Just click that big
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: banner up at the top. You can find me on
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 1: x at, Toteg and Tambo reach out if you want
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: to have any conversation about DFS Mastermind or the Big
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: Guy Event if you were having questions on that. Congrats
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: to all those that made it through to the Fantasy
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 1: Golf World Championship, and good luck to everybody this week
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: in your contest for the Scottish Open, for Alex and
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: for myself Toteg and Tambo. That's gonna over this week, guys,
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: led ship It