Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 174 - 12/3/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 174 - 12/3/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 174 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
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guys, as the early portion of the work week rolls on and we
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got a lot to get to on today's podcast.
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It's going to be a big college basketball day.
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So if you're a college hoops fan or college hoops better, I
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should say tonight's the night for you.
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I have over all A5 pack of sweats, four in college
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basketball, one in the NHL, and then I'm going to give to you
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guys some early college Football Conference championship bets
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because we have all the conference championship games,
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whether you want to call it Week 15, rivalry week, conference
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championship day. All these are neutral sites.
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They're playing out a lot of NFL stadiums and I've already
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noticed some early sharp line moves which caught my eye.
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And I played a couple early money line short favorites and I
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played a dog, which is going to be a huge contrarian play, the
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number one contrarian play of this upcoming weekend.
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I want to mention with college basketball tonight, couple low
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obscure totals. Going to dab our dip our toe in
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some totals here with some good line moves that really line up
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pretty well with some rhythm edges and Ken palm edges.
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And then two really big games with some really important
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contrarian opportunities. So 2 huge late night matchups.
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One's at 9 O clock, one's at 9:30.
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Everybody and their mother, 85% of bets on one side.
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Let's look at some opportunities to go the other way in the
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contrarian heavily bet spots. So overall, guys, 5 pack, then
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we'll talk. 3 early conference championship games in the end,
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college football now. I buried the lead last night.
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Brutal, disgusting, terrible, frustrating night.
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Owen 3 -, 3 units. You hate to see it, but
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sometimes you have those nights where nothing goes your way.
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Knew the night wasn't getting off to a great start when Drexel
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lost straight up against Bryant. Couldn't get it going for us
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offensively. Made a little push late but came
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up short, lost on the money line.
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And then we get to the one that I would argue is the maybe the
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worst bad beat of the season. And someone actually DM me and
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they said, well, you covered with Mac Jones plus 3 1/2 on
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Sunday. So this was your your pennants
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or this was the bad revenge from the gambling gods.
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But Oh my God, Jameis Winston. Are you kidding me, dude?
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Jameis Winston plus 6 1/2 Cleveland Browns.
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We're looking good. Pretty much the entire game.
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I thought we had it there almost locked up.
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But what happens? Jameis Winston, even though he
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had a career game and I don't know if anyone had any Jerry
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Judy over prop bets, just Jerry Judy went absolutely off.
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Unfortunately, Devon Valet didn't go off for us, but man,
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instead of Owen, 3-1 and two night you lose a unit, I'm like,
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OK, at least we got the Browns right?
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Not so fast. Jameis Winston reared his ugly
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head. The 30 for 30 Jameis from the
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Tampa Bay Bucks. And what does he do?
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He throws a terrible pick 6 to crush us there at the end.
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And what I was annoyed by two is the linebacker, the defensive
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back, whoever caught that, and it was McMillan.
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All you got to do is go down, bro.
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You picked it off, get to the ground, you know, sit on it,
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kneel it, boom. We we cover the number instead.
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He has to, of course, run it back for a pick 6.
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So we're screwed. But then just when I thought we
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were dead, I had a little bit of hope.
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Cleveland gets the ball back. They're down by 9 points, two
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score, game kick a field goal. You know, we cover with the 6
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1/2 by the hook, go for a touchdown.
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Again, backdoor cover. They get all the way down to the
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one yard line. And again, if, if, if you watch
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this game and you know what I'm going to tell you, boy, was it
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brutal. Instead of just running it in
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from the one yard line with Nick Chubb, QB snake, you know, run,
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run up the gut. What do they do?
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They let Jameis throw the ball. Shades of the Malcolm Butler
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Super Bowl, but what does he do? He throws a pick to end the game
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when he could have just kicked a field goal, run it in, cover the
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number. So boy, was that frustrating.
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Cleveland with multiple opportunities to cover the
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spread, they blow up for us in ridiculous fashion.
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Jameis, again, played well. He made a lot of plays, threw
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the ball very well. But the freaking interceptions,
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man, Jameis really killed us last night.
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So that's one of those games where again, you feel like you
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got it locked up. And again, this is the thing
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about sports betting, but you're never safe when you look good.
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You're never dead when you when you look bad.
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You know, again, it's never over till it's over.
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But that, that one hurt last night, losing Cleveland plus 6
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1/2, that was very, very painful because that that made us over
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three on the night, which again, sometimes it happens.
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But either way, guys, O and three, three and O, you guys
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know the drill. Whether there's a night where
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everything goes your way or last night nothing goes your way, we
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got to wake up the next day with a positive attitude.
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We got to have the, I don't know, the the internal fire to
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feel like we want some revenge today, Not to say, hey, screw
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it, I quit or hey, let me double triple down and get it all back
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tonight. That's always risking one unit.
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It's always playing system matches that pop up from a
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data-driven perspective. But man, last night with that
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Browns game, just absolutely terrible.
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But sometimes sports betting it's it's going to bring you to
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the highest to highs, lowest to lows.
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But when Jameis threw the pick six and the guy didn't get down
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and then he threw a pick in the end zone, I was like, you can't
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make this stuff up. So Jameis, come on, man.
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Anyway, let's turn the page because I can't let this Jameis
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Winston fail of a cover get get to me anymore.
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I got to let it go. So let's talk some college hoops
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for tonight, guys. We got a big college hoop slate
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again. 5 pack overall, 4 in college, one in the NHL.
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I want to start with, in chronological order, an early
6:00
game here. This is a 6:30 PM Eastern Time
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game. It's a great college slate.
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I think it's around 45 games tonight.
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Tomorrow there's about close to 60 games, but an early game
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caught my eye and it's a total play.
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Eastern Illinois and Butler. And I want to remind you guys,
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of course, whether you don't have time to listen to the pod
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or you want to support the pod, you can always follow the best
6:19
bets on the Juice Reel app. You just go to Juice Reel.
6:22
You can search under fine juicers ASG podcast.
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I'm gonna I'm started to tweet it out every single day, 499 a
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week. Again, I mentioned this not to
6:30
beg for your money, but to tell you, hey, it's a if you missed
6:33
the pod, you just want the plays or you want to support the pod,
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let me know. You appreciate the hard work
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that I put in. It's basically a cup of coffee
6:40
to get all the plays for on a weekly basis.
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Anyway, that being said, back to the first play of the night,
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Eastern Illinois and Butler. Now this one caught my eye for a
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couple reasons. One, it's a big spread.
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Butler is favored by 21 points at home.
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So Butler should probably win in a blowout, but I noticed some
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sharp money hit this over. I'm going to play this over guys
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now going into it, Eastern Illinois two and five, Butler
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six and one. This is on FS2.
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If you get that Channel again early 630 tip off here.
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The first thing I noticed is that this total ticked up a
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little bit. It opened at 137 1/2.
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It then got bet up to 138 1/2 and I'm seeing a lot of books
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that are even approaching 139. I see a 139 1/2 out there.
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So this is a big important opportunity to shop for the best
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line. You can never guarantee a win,
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but you can guarantee get the best of the number.
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But I got over 138 1/2 at -115 juice at FanDuel.
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And why do I like this over? Well, First off, it's a low bet,
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obscure game, early game that is taking in sharp money to the
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over. I look at the bet split on
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DraftKings, only 64% of bets, but 80% of money is on the over.
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So good low bets, higher dollars.
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Bet split against slight public, but again, it's a low bet game,
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so good, low bets, higher dollars to that over.
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Then I go to Ken Pom. Ken Pom has a predicted total
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here of 139. He's got Butler winning 80 to
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59, which is right at that, you know, 21 point spread.
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So 139 cashes are over 138 1/2. Then I pop open my rhythm app
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and of course Rhythm. Great job with their AI backed
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models and predictions. They have a cumulative total
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combined final total of 141.2. So this is what I like to look
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at. I like to look at when the
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betting market is moving in One Direction.
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The low bets higher dollars bet split is in that same direction
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and both the bet splits in the line move are going toward the
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Ken palm in the rhythm model. So basically when this thing
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opened at 137 1/2, again, Ken Palm had 139, Rhythm had 141.2.
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We're starting to see this thing tick up.
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We're starting to check off multiple boxes.
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Then we get to some offensive defensive efficiency.
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Butler pretty good offensive efficiency, 51st in the nation.
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Eastern Illinois really bad defensively, 344 in the country.
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But this is one of those early plays where I just said, hey, we
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got the market, the percentages and the AI backed model in Ken
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Palm all lining up in the same direction telling us that hey,
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we should take an over play here.
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So again, probably I need Butler close to 80 points.
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We're going to need Eastern Illinois close to 60 points.
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Let's even get this over 138 1/2 Eastern Illinois and Butler.
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That's my first bet of the night.
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Continuing in chronological order, Next one for you.
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Another low bet, obscure total. Let's go Evansville and Murray
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State, 8:00 game tonight. Extremely low bet.
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This is one of the lowest bet games of the day.
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That's not an added game, extra game, but we look at the spread
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in this one. Line move has gone to Murray
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State. Murray State open this game
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around a 12 point home favorite. They've been bet up to -13 1/2.
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Murray State comes in four and two.
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Evansville is 3 and 4. But once again, I saw some start
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running. Hit this over this total open at
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1:43. It's now been bet up to 144 1/2
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and again, shop for the best number.
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I'm seeing some books creep up closer to 145.
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Look at the bet split. Great bet split here on this
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over at DraftKings. At DraftKings, only 50% of
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tickets are on the over, but 93% of dollars are on the over.
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So I ask you on a Tuesday with a ton of games here across the
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college spectrum, Evansville, Murray State, you know, is that
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a game that the public's focus on?
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No, but based on that bet split, only half the tickets, but 93%
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money on the over tells me smart money hit the over.
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The total has ticked up. Here's where it gets even
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better. Ken Palm has a projected total
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of 146, so a little bit of wiggle room on the over 144 1/2.
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Rhythm has a 145.1, so again, cashing by the skinnier teeth.
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But over 144 1/2, that means 145 wins.
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Then we get to some hopeful event, hopefully advantages
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here, offensive, defensive efficiency.
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But Murray State 77 in the country, offensive efficiency,
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effective field goal percentage. They're 46th.
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They're shooting 37% from three. Evansville bad defensively,
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ranked 264 in the country. And again with Ken Palm at 1:46,
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we're lining up the market for the totals creeping up a great
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percentage split. And both Rhythm and Ken Palm say
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this, this should go over just slightly.
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It's not a massive edge, but over this number, which is the
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direction the market is moving toward the over.
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So similar cap for me, whether it's the Evansville Murray State
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over or the Eastern Illinois Butler over, both are low back
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games with good bet splits, lines, line is moving up and we
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have Rhythm and Ken Palm edges. So let's see if we can get an
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over or as we like to say in Boston over.
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Let's get an over. Evansville, Marie State.
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I got over 144 1/2. Now let's talk about some big
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games tonight. Couple big ones here, 9 O clock
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Eastern Time, Michigan and Wisconsin couple a couple good
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teams here when it comes to college hoops.
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But the first one that jumped out to me with Michigan and let
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me just dial this in here because I got to pull up the
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game. But these are two really good
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teams. But your perception of these
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teams from a public standpoint is kind of skewed.
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So 9:00 game tonight, it's on Peacock.
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Come on. Can you just give me like again,
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ESPN game, make it easy on me anyway, Peacock.
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So I got to figure out how to watch that.
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I'm sure I pay for it. I pay for all the freaking apps.
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But anyway, Michigan 6:00 and 1:00, but they're unranked.
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Remember we played Michigan against Xavier last time where
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they were, I forgot it was unranked versus ranked
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situation. I like Michigan again in this
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spot. Wisconsin is 8 and O, they're
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ranked 11th in the country. So Michigan six and one good
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record, but they're unranked. Wisconsin 8 and O ranked 11th.
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And we have Wisconsin around a three, 3 1/2 point favorite for
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this one. So public all they see is that
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little #11 next to Wisconsin and no ranking in front of Michigan.
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And they say, hey, 3/3 and 1/2 at home.
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Wisconsin's got that one that that's pretty easy, right?
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I don't think so. I think the angle here is to
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take Michigan. Now, the important thing with
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Michigan is you really want to shop for the best line and get
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that hook on the 3 1/2. I was able to find Michigan plus
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3 1/2 at ESPN Bet still pretty widely available here.
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But this is kind of a sharp buyback play because Wisconsin
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open this game at a lot of shops as around a three-point
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favorite. They got up to 3 1/2.
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I even saw one book briefly, maybe touch four, and then it
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got back down to 3 1/2 and now it's starting to get back down
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to 3. So it kind of started, you know,
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low Wisconsin got bet up, now it's coming back down.
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So the reason or the point of me kind of telling you the
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metamorphosis of the line move is that yes, it was early moves
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toward Wisconsin, but all that late sharp money looks to be
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taking the dog here. And what I like about Michigan
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on ranked versus ranked, I always love that spot, is that
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this is one of the top contrarian plays of the night.
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85% of tickets are taking Wisconsin, pretty much everybody
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in their mothers on Wisconsin. So regardless of the line
13:57
movement, Michigan is just a great bet against the public
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play heavily bet 85% one side, Give me the 15% side.
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However, let's add some more angles here.
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Our buddy Ken Palm has Wisconsin winning by two points.
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So if Ken Palm's got with Wisconsin winning by two, and we
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can get a 3 1/2 with Michigan, that's 1 1/2 points of value
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right there. Also, it's interesting to me is
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that Ken Palm actually has Michigan ranked higher.
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He's got a ranked #22 in the country versus number.
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I can't read my writing either 27 or 29 for Wisconsin.
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So again, the AP, you know, coaches, USA TODAY, whatever you
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want to call it, their ranking has 11.
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Wisconsin ranked 11th, Michigan unranked.
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But the data guru Ken Palm actually is Michigan ranked as
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the better team. So I'll take that.
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I'm also going to bank on Michigan's defense here.
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Hopefully, you know, giving Wisconsin some trouble with
14:50
their number 10 in the country. Defensive efficiency.
14:53
Wisconsin is number 66. Michigan has the better
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effective field goal percentage, 59% versus 55%, hopefully a big
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edge on the offensive boards, which are huge with extra
15:03
possessions, 28th in the country.
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The Wolverines offensive rebound percentage, 244 for Wisconsin,
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they're really bad. They don't grab many offensive
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boards. Michigan slightly better in
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terms of three-point shooting, 39% versus 36%.
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And both these teams are in the Big 10.
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This is a conference game. Conference games to me are just
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like in college hoops or NFL divisional dogs, baseball
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divisional dogs. That rivalry aspect levels the
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playing field, provides extra added value for the dog in that
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spot. I didn't mention this, but
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Rhythm has Michigan plus 2.7, but everyone is playing
15:38
Wisconsin yet. This should be around up, you
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know, 2-3 point game. Somewhere around there we can go
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contrarian. We have unranked versus ranked.
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We have a lot of advantages here in terms of defense, field goal
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percentage, offensive rebounding, 3 point shooting
15:53
things. A good opportunity to go
15:54
contrarian, bet against the public and take Michigan.
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So again, a lot of books are at 3:00, but try to do your best to
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go search for that hook right now.
16:02
ESPN bet is still hanging. Michigan plus 3 1/2 at -115
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that's my play plus 3 1/2. Let's go Wolverines, last bet of
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the night. Another contrarian play for you,
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Kentucky, Clemson. Now this is a 930 game and this
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one is on ESPN. So this is going to be your most
16:20
heavily bet game of the night. Not only is it nationally
16:22
televised, but it's your late night game. 9:30.
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So what do we like to do in heavily bet nationally televised
16:28
games? Bet against the public, bet
16:30
against the drunk guys at the bar and the drunk guys at the
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bar love Kentucky tonight. That means I really like
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Clemson. Also, I I buried the lead here.
16:39
But this is also if you remember, if you've been if
16:41
you've been doing podcasts with me over the years, you're going
16:44
to you're going to remember this.
16:45
If not, you'll be like, Josh, what the hell is wrong with you?
16:48
But this is a Ken Palm. Sound the alarm.
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Maureen Chase, I don't know if you're still listening, but Ken
16:55
Palm sound the alarm. What does that mean?
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It means that Ken Palm has this team winning the game, yet the
17:00
betting market is giving them points as a dog.
17:04
And what do I mean by that? OK, let's set the stage.
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Kentucky is number 4 in the country, seven.
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And oh, they look great. Clemson 7 and 1.
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So it's not like they're a slouch either.
17:14
But this game basically opened. I saw a couple different
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openers. I saw one game that was like a
17:17
pick em opener. Also saw an opener that was
17:20
around -2 for Kentucky, you know, we could probably split
17:24
the difference, call it around a -, 1 1/2 Kentucky opener.
17:27
This line at one point got up to Kentucky -2 I think it may have
17:31
touched 2 1/2. But since that time, all those
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two and a halfs are back down to 1 1/2.
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So it's now Kentucky only -1 1/2, or at some shops, Kentucky
17:40
only -1 So First off, everyone's playing Kentucky, 85% of
17:46
tickets. So just from a contrarian
17:48
standpoint, Clemson has a ton of value here.
17:50
But I really like the fact that those two naps are falling.
17:53
I like the fact that this line is coming back toward Clemson.
17:55
Like if Kentucky, you know, was around a -. 1 1/2 opener, now
17:59
they're, you know -3 I would say, OK, Clemson's good
18:03
contrarian spot, but we don't have any, like, indication of
18:06
smart money. So it would just be a pure
18:08
contrarian play. This is not just contrarian.
18:11
It looks a little bit sharp to me because the lines coming back
18:13
toward Clemson, some RLM, even though everyone's playing
18:16
Kentucky. We got the alarm because Ken Pom
18:19
actually has Clemson winning this game by one point.
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This would be an unranked versus ranked opportunity.
18:25
Rhythm, our friends at Rhythm have this, basically a pick em
18:28
game. To be exact, they have Clemson
18:31
plus 0.2. So again, 2/10 of a point.
18:36
Not just contrarian, but if you look at Circa as well, I've been
18:39
telling you all the DraftKings bet splits.
18:40
To me that's great to know where the public is, but Circa splits
18:44
they are showing only 46% of bets on Clemson, but 89% of
18:49
money on Clemson. So the wise guys in Vegas seem
18:52
to really like Clemson in the spot.
18:54
Clemson by the way is five and O at home.
18:56
They have a big advantage, offensive rebound percentage,
18:58
35th in the country, Kentucky 183rd.
19:02
Clemson better defensive efficiency, 24th versus 30th and
19:06
slightly better three-point shooting, 39% versus 38%.
19:10
So this is our first Sound the Alarm play of the year.
19:13
Again, that means Ken Palm has this team winning yet their dog
19:16
getting points. I'd missed the two.
19:19
I don't really think that's available anywhere at this
19:21
point. I was shopping everywhere,
19:22
couldn't find it, so I took the plus 1 1/2.
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Now, if you tell me like the money line, I get it.
19:27
But if you're giving me a hook, a + 1 1/2 again, I'll take the
19:30
point and a half just on the off chance they lose by 1.
19:33
I want to cover with the 1 1/2 and it's not a huge difference,
19:35
you know, Plus 1 1/2 -, 110 -, 115 versus, you know, will they
19:41
be on the money line like plus one O 5, something like that.
19:44
It's not a huge difference. So I'm let's take the points
19:47
here. The point and a half, I'm going
19:48
to go Clemson plus 1 1/2, Michigan plus 3 1/2, Eastern
19:52
Illinois Butler over 138 1/2 and Evansville, Murray State over
19:56
144 1/2. Can we at least get two of
19:59
those? It would be, it would be
20:01
fantastic if we could even get 3, but I'm excited to sweat some
20:04
big and small games with you guys.
20:06
Totals and sides. Now over to the NHL.
20:09
Well, I got one bet in the NHL for you.
20:10
I'm kicking myself because yesterday I saw the devil's I
20:14
was D Ming with some people I respect and like Oh, you like
20:16
the devil saying like I do. I don't know why I talked myself
20:18
out of it or analysis by paralysis.
20:21
Devils ended up rolling 5:00 to 1:00.
20:23
So that was frustrating that it's, again, it hurts when you
20:27
lose a bet, but it also is annoying when you like a play
20:30
but talk yourself out of it, don't play it and then you see
20:32
it when that's always frustrating as well.
20:35
But anyway, let's see if we can get a hockey winner tonight.
20:38
I'm looking at one game. It's a big slate tonight, 10
20:41
games overall. But let's look at a 7:00 puck
20:44
drop between the Florida Panthers and the Pittsburgh
20:47
Penguins. Now going into this one, we have
20:49
Florida 15-9 and one, Pittsburgh 10:12 and 4:00.
20:53
So obviously Florida right where they picked off left off or
20:57
picked up where they left off. That's what I was trying to say
20:59
as winning the Cup last year. Pittsburgh, bit of a
21:02
disappointment. Both teams, however, are playing
21:04
pretty good. They both won three straight
21:07
games. So both teams are riding winning
21:09
streaks coming in this one. But the first thing I notice,
21:12
good sharp move toward Florida Panthers.
21:13
I'm going Panthers, guys. This game open at Panthers
21:16
around -170 I saw early openers as closer like -150 but
21:21
immediate move was toward Florida.
21:23
They're now up to -175 -, 180. I know it's a little bit a
21:26
little bit hefty there. I got -178 at FanDuel playing
21:29
the Panthers, but not only do you have the line move, you have
21:32
a ton of system matches on the Panthers.
21:34
I have a system here. Rested Rd. favorite, at least
21:37
three days between their last game.
21:39
In this game, they made the postseason, their opponent did
21:42
not. So no, it's a mouthful, but just
21:44
think of it this way. It's a rested Rd. favorite.
21:47
They made the playoffs last year, their opponent did not.
21:49
That system is 17 and 674 percent, 14% ROI.
21:54
It's been really good this year. Rested Rd. favorites in general
21:57
at least three days between your last game.
21:58
In this game, 62% this season, 2% ROI.
22:03
Rd. favor off a win since 2021. That's a 63% system favorite off
22:08
a win versus opponent who missed the postseason, 65% since 2021
22:13
and road favorite with Steam. Their opponent missed the
22:15
playoffs. So at least $0.10 a movement
22:17
from the opener. That system is 30 and 1862% this
22:21
season. So when I look at all my system
22:24
matches, the first thing I notice is OK, what game is
22:26
giving me the most system matches?
22:29
Well, tonight it's the Florida Panthers.
22:31
Dig a little deeper. I like the goalie match up here,
22:33
Florida versus Pittsburgh. It's not Bobrowski, it's Spencer
22:37
Knight and he's been really good.
22:38
He's a former first round pick. He has a 2.31 goals against
22:42
average, 9/11 save percentage. He'll be opposed by Tristan
22:45
Jarry. He's got a 3.88 goals against,
22:48
881 save percentage. So Knight greater than Jarry,
22:53
hopefully, and that comes to fruition tonight.
22:56
Then also better offense with the Florida Panthers. 3.6 goals
22:59
a game versus 2.7 for Pitt, a better defense, 3.2 goals
23:03
allowed versus 3.8. But with a line move and all my
23:07
system matches and hopefully an advantage here in that, I'm
23:10
going Florida Panthers guys, again, a little bit pricey -178
23:14
let's see if we can get a winner in hockey.
23:16
And of course, every player you mentioned, whether it's a -, 178
23:19
favorite in hockey, you know, a baseball money line, a total and
23:22
any other sport spread, it's always bet to risk versus bet to
23:25
win. That means if you're new to the
23:27
pod, this is every play is like this.
23:29
If you're playing Florida tonight, betting to win would
23:32
mean you'd risk 1.78 units to win one unit.
23:35
I disagree with that. I see a lot of people do it.
23:38
I think a lot of people just don't even know the difference
23:40
or if there's a different option because you always hear like,
23:43
oh, like what is -115 means it means you got to risk 115 to
23:47
100. So they just automatically think
23:48
you got a risk, you know, the amount listed on the money line
23:52
versus just plain your unit, whatever that is to you.
23:56
So you're always risking one unit.
23:58
This in this case at -178 we're looking to get, you know,
24:01
around, you know, 2/3 of a unit back, something like that.
24:05
But of course, remember, this is a strategy in terms of saving
24:10
you when you lose on favorites, but also risking one unit on a
24:12
dog, you're going to get more back versus betting to win on a
24:16
dog. You got a risk less you know,
24:17
it's a mouthful, but guess what I wrote a book called the
24:20
everything guide to sportsman. If you want to learn more about
24:22
bankroll management, The only hockey play Florida Panthers.
24:26
Now I wanted to mention some early bets that I put in to the
24:30
Juice Reel app for this weekend and they are early college
24:34
football week 15 conference championship games.
24:37
So the first one that I wanted to highlight Ohio, Miami, Ohio.
24:42
This is the Mac championship. It is Saturday at noon Eastern
24:45
Time. It's at going to be played at
24:47
Ford Field, home of the Lions. Two really good teams.
24:50
Ohio's nine and three. They've won five straight and
24:53
Miami, Ohio is 8 and four. They've won seven straight.
24:56
But the first thing I noticed about this one is early
24:58
consistent movement toward Miami, Ohio, Miami, Ohio.
25:02
The RedHawks, remember Big Ben went there.
25:05
They open that is, as a very short, one point neutral site
25:08
favorite. And they've really gotten
25:09
steamed early. They're now up to -2 1/2 some
25:12
books even going to -3 really good bet split here at
25:16
DraftKings. Only 62% bets, but 86% money is
25:20
on Miami, Ohio. I went money line here.
25:22
I played Miami, OH on the money line.
25:25
I like it when you have just as soon as an early number drops,
25:28
which way does it move? So this tells me that again, all
25:31
the early smart money has been pouring in on Miami, Ohio.
25:34
I got him around -140 on the money line.
25:37
Good bet split here, 66% bets, 79% money.
25:40
And then also angle here when 2 Mac teams play each other, the
25:44
favorite is 36 and 12. Straight up 75% this year.
25:48
So when I saw Miami Ohio open -1 and then immediately get steamed
25:51
up to -2 1/2, I said hey let's hit Miami Ohio, see if they can
25:55
win the Mac championship. So my first bet when Miami Ohio
25:58
money line -140 win the damn game.
26:03
Next one for you. 4:00 Georgia and Texas SEC championship game.
26:09
This will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of
26:11
the Falcons. Georgia comes in 10 and 2 ranked
26:14
7th. They won three straight.
26:16
They had to go to 8 overtimes to beat Georgia Tech 4442 last
26:20
week. On the other hand, Texas 11 and
26:22
one ranked third. Don't remind me.
26:24
I had A and M in the points and they could not score at the goal
26:27
line just like Jameis Winston. But anyway, if you like Miami,
26:31
Ohio, you like Texas. Texas open this game.
26:34
Very very short, low -1 1/2. Favorite neutral site and now
26:39
been bet up to -2 1/2. And if you look at all the
26:41
juice, juice stuff like it may go to three.
26:44
That's what here 70% bets, but 82% money on Texas.
26:48
So it's a little public, but not just public smart money with
26:52
that low bets, higher dollars bet split as well as the line
26:54
move. I once again played Texas money
26:56
line. I would hate to see them win by
26:58
one or two and I lose my bet. So I got a -, 140.
27:02
Here's the big difference. 2 angles here to think about
27:05
because again, two good teams, Georgia, Texas.
27:07
The first thing is defense. Texas is really good
27:10
defensively. Texas is only giving up
27:13
basically 12 points a game. If you look at Georgia again,
27:17
they just gave up 42 to Georgia Tech.
27:19
They're giving up. Let me see here, 21 points a
27:22
game. So George is giving up literally
27:24
10 more points a game. Both offenses are pretty pretty
27:27
equal, scoring around 34 points a game when 2 SEC teams play
27:32
each other. The favorite is 42 and 2167%
27:35
this year. And oh, by the way, do you
27:37
remember Texas is 11 and one. What's the one loss they had
27:41
this year? It was against Georgia.
27:43
They lost 30 to 15. So I think that's a motivational
27:46
edge. Again, you, you, you had one
27:49
loss on the year. It was against Georgia.
27:51
Now is your chance to win the SEC championship and beat the
27:53
team that beat you. So I think that's a good angle
27:56
to back Texas. So I money line Texas just like
27:58
I money line Miami. Ohio again around -140 And then
28:02
the big one, 8:00 PM Eastern Time, prime time.
28:06
This one's on CBS Penn State Oregon Big 10 Championship.
28:10
This will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Colts.
28:14
Penn State's 11 and one ranked 4th.
28:16
Of course Oregon, the only undefeated team, 12 and O ranked
28:19
first. But the first thing I noticed
28:21
about this one is the beautiful contrarian opportunity here.
28:25
Of all the games on Championship Saturday, this is the most
28:29
lopsided. No one wants to play Penn State.
28:32
Everybody loves Oregon. Oregon is getting across the
28:36
market, 88% of spread bets, 88% right now.
28:42
They're -3 1/2. So public says this line is way
28:44
too low. Oregon will roll.
28:46
They don't trust Penn State. So right off the bat, I say to
28:49
myself, who cares about line movement?
28:50
This is the number one contrarian play.
28:52
And the other thing about, you know, kind of betting it's the
28:55
public in this spot is 8:00 game, primetime game, most
28:59
heavily back game of the night. So I love that increased
29:02
contrarian edge. But not only is Penn State
29:05
contrarian, they're kind of sharp.
29:08
I saw a lot of books open Oregon as high as -4 1/2.
29:12
Openers were all over the place. There were some Oregon -4 and a
29:15
halfs. There were some Oregon minus
29:16
fours. There were some Oregon -3 and a
29:18
halfs. But regardless of what opener
29:21
you're looking at, the market is now across the board -3 1/2.
29:25
So that means any openers of 4 1/2 or 4 got bet down.
29:28
Any three and a halfs have stayed 3 1/2.
29:30
Think of it this way, if we even take the low number -3 1/2, if
29:34
88% of bets are on Oregon, why isn't that -3 and half up to -4
29:38
-, 5? This tells me we got a line
29:41
freeze or even some reverse line movement based on those openers
29:44
are a little bit higher, but everyone's playing Oregon, yet
29:48
the line pretty much hasn't moved.
29:49
It's sitting right there, 3 1/2. That tells me that the odds
29:51
makers, despite this heavy, heavy Ducks batting, they really
29:55
don't want to move the number up toward the Ducks because they're
29:57
more concerned about, you know, contrarian players taking Penn
30:01
State in the points. So I'm going to take Penn State
30:03
here when two top five teams play each other.
30:07
The dog is 29 and 19 against the spread, 60% since 2006.
30:13
So I put in Penn State plus 3 1/2.
30:16
I could see it, you know, Oregon 3 point win with the hooks
30:18
crucial. But this is your number one
30:20
contrarian play of the weekend. Penn State.
30:23
I got to take the 12% Penn State line freeze.
30:26
Give me Nittany Lions plus 3 1/2 So that about does it for
30:31
episode 174 of the all systems go sports betting podcast
30:35
powered by rhythm. This is the part of the pod
30:37
where we wrap things up and I start by first thanking you for
30:40
listening to the pod each day, whether we go O and three or
30:43
three and O have a bad night, you know brutal night like last
30:46
night or you know we we bust out the brooms.
30:49
The fact that you guys take the time out of your day to listen
30:51
to the breakdowns and I know I'm the one talking, but I feel like
30:54
kind of we're all thinking through these games together.
30:56
So I'm really proud of the kind of the data-driven community
30:59
that we've created and continue to foster.
31:01
But anyway, now that I've buttered you up, I'm going to
31:04
ask a favor of you. If you like the pod, could you
31:06
please give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
31:10
If you want to leave a nice comment, that'll be great.
31:12
If you want to click the follow button, even better.
31:14
If you want to recommend the pod to a friend, that'll be
31:17
fantastic. But please, a five star review
31:19
would go a long way helping to continue to grow the podcast.
31:23
Secondly, if you want to learn more about data-driven, sharp
31:25
contrarian betting. And again, we're entering the
31:27
holiday season and you probably have no clue, like me, who, what
31:30
to get who for Christmas, for Hanukkah, you know, birthdays,
31:34
whatever the case may be, Secret Santa, don't just get, you know,
31:38
flannel, the flannel shirt or pair of socks or underwear.
31:41
When do you get that person in your life who maybe is
31:44
interested in sports betting or love sports betting or wants to
31:47
get into it and doesn't know how, Give them something much
31:49
more, I don't know, much more interesting than a pair of
31:53
socks. Get them the everything guide to
31:55
Sports Betting. It's a book.
31:56
I wrote it. That's right, I'm the author.
31:58
But all you got to do is go to Amazon.com, type in the
32:01
everything guide to sports betting.
32:02
Pick one up for you or a buddy or a friend.
32:05
It makes a great stocking stuff where it's less than 20 bucks.
32:08
Bezos will drop it at, drop it off at your front porch with a
32:10
drone. But it's got everything I've
32:12
learned in the industry, how to read line movement, how to
32:15
locate sharp action, how to go contrarian, how to place the bet
32:17
in person or online, how to set up a bankroll management plan,
32:21
all included in the everything guide to sports Betting.
32:23
So grab one, bring it to the book, I'll sign it for you and
32:26
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
32:28
If you don't drink, that's fine too.
32:30
Next I'll be taking advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel
32:33
or Rhythm Yet my two favorite sports betting apps.
32:36
Again, Juice Reel. All the all systems go best bets
32:39
are located and posted on Juice Reel moving forward, so you can
32:43
always find them there, but you can also get Robo Jackson best
32:45
bet picks, arbitrage opportunity, sharp mush indicate
32:49
indicators, shop for the best line quickly and easily for
32:52
futures all and all included with Juice Reel.
32:55
Then of course Rhythm, even though they let me down with
32:58
Devon valet yesterday or he let us down.
33:00
Not Juice Reel or not Rhythm, but they are great for their AI
33:03
backed models for game bets as well as player props.
33:06
So go download both apps and get started with a 7 day free trial.
33:11
That about does it. In terms of today's pot, I'll
33:13
leave you with a couple things as always #1 whether I see you
33:17
at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
33:20
Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
33:22
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or Plain Ridge Park
33:25
Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
33:28
Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
33:30
true grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
33:32
number runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
33:35
Point. Or Sweat and Sharp can train
33:37
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
33:39
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
33:42
you're going to walk up to me and you're not going to show me
33:44
any winners from last night, sadly.
33:46
O and three. But you know what you're going
33:47
to do? You're going to show me that
33:48
Browns plus 6 1/2. We're both going to just, all we
33:51
can do is laugh at this point, because if I didn't laugh, I
33:53
would cry. But we're going to RIP it up.
33:55
We're going to recycle it and we're going to get the next one,
33:58
which is always our mantra. But that about does it
34:01
everybody, as always, stay sharp, stay contrary and bet
34:04
against the public. Place yourself on the side of
34:05
the house. Always be with the smart money.
34:07
Never against it. Will smart money when every
34:09
time? Nope.
34:10
I would argue Browns were about as smart money as you can get.
34:14
What happens? Bad Jamis happens.
34:16
So sometimes smart, smart money or sharp plays lose.
34:20
But again, long term, always think about the long term.
34:22
Don't let the result of one game make have you make like big
34:26
overarching generalizations about sports betting.
34:28
We're always playing the long game.
34:30
Here's one thing I can tell you. If we stick to the model, stick
34:33
to the blueprint, if we bet games with our head and not our
34:35
heart, if we are against the public, with the house, with the
34:38
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that COV.
34:42
If we can do that long term, we're going to come out on top.
34:45
So have a great Tuesday night, everybody.
34:48
We got 5 bets overall. See if we can scratch and claw
34:51
and get three of them eek out a winning night and of course,
34:54
we'll be right back at it. Win, lose or draw, we'll be
34:56
right back at it tomorrow for episode 175 of the All Systems
35:01
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
35:04
Good luck everybody, have a great night.