Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Overtimes = Good Times | NFL Divisional Round Recap

Transcript

Overtimes = Good Times | NFL Divisional Round Recap · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, what did we just witness?
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday's divisional round all wrapped up? The divisional round period
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: is wrapped up. We've got conference title games set, massive
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: injuries to discuss. Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: I'm your host, Brandon Kravitz, joined by my fellow NFL
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: cappers Kendra Middleton and Stuckey. We've got our goats and
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: votes queued up. Our biggest takeaways from this round in
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: the NFL postseason. A very brief parlay recap. We were
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: toast before we ever even got to Sunday. Broncos Bills
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: flew over the total we had the under Rams Bears
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: then flew under the total Bears plus four and a half.
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: That one did come through, so shout out to Kendra
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: for that. We're gonna do a quick reaction of what
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: we just witnessed. We've got AFC title game news and
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: some Josh Allen opinions to get out there. The Bears
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: were down seven in the final two minutes, ball at midfield.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: They make it down to the fourteen, fourth and four.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Caleb's backpedaling heaves the ball. I thought he was just
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: chucking the ball. Into space wide open Cole Comet back
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: of the end zone, and what was deemed a fourteen
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: yard touchdown pass obviously was much greater than that game
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: goes to overtime. Caleb then throws a pick just completely
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: inexplicable to force the ball down the field. In that situation,
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: the Rams then work the ball down the field. Harrison
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: MeVis with the walk off field goal and rip to
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: the Chicago Bears, who were the best watch in the postseason, Kendra,
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: your initial reaction to what we just witnessed with the
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: Rams walk off.
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: I thought Caleb was so screwed on that play, I
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: really did.
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: I thought he was going to get sacked. Thought he
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: was just chucking the ball up for somebody.
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: He's just the that he plays when the entire world
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: is on his shoulders makes me feel like that is
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: like his preferred place to be and he plays his
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: best football that way, which I don't know if that
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: bodes well or not for the rest of his career,
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: if he continues to kind of need to rely on
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: this final fourth quarter, last second drive heroics, but damn
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: does he do it better than anybody else. And but
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: then that pick that was that was tough so I
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: don't know, I'm not excited for the potential of another
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: Seahawks Patriots Super Bowl.
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: But I was gonna save this from my goats and woats.
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: But Nick Foles really kind of giving us some hope
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: after trolling the Patriots today saying maybe backups are really
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: the key to beat them.
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: So hey, if it gets there, that would be kind
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: of funny.
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they backup had some time to marinate in the offense.
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: This one might feel a little different for the Denver Broncos.
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: Stuck he arey being too harsh on Caleb with that,
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: I int because DJ Moore wasn't exactly where he needed
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: to be either.
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I don't know. I can't put that
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: pick all on Kale. But they did have three turnovers
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: in the game. The Rams didn't have any, which might
• 3:07
  Speaker 5: have been the difference. But I thought it was two
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: poorly coached teams today. I mean, I was so excited
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: to watch McVeigh versus Ben Johnson. I mean, how many
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: how many dives are you gonna run on third and
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: fourth and one and fail? Then? I mean that was
• 3:20
  Speaker 5: it was some I thought the Bears were better on
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: a down to down basis in the game. They just
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: they had three failed fourth downs, a lot of them
• 3:27
  Speaker 5: were awful calls. So I'm not sure what Ben Johnson
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: was doing that. I don't know what McVay was doing.
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: I mean, at one point they had like thirty six
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: dropbacks and twelve rushes even though they had a fifty
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: five percent rush success right against one of the worst
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: run defenses in the league. Abandoned his thirteen the heavy personnel,
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: which should have worked all day against the Bears. So yeah,
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: and McVeigh to sum up how bad the coaches were
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: in this game. Two thirty eight to go or too yeah,
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: two forty seven to go. Ben Johnson doesn't call a
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: time now, which is a brain dead because you could
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: run it down to you know, seven seconds two oh seven.
• 4:07
  Speaker 5: You can run onceid a clock out on a two
• 4:09
  Speaker 5: o seven, You could run a passing play and end
• 4:12
  Speaker 5: the game without a penalty. And then McVeigh decides to
• 4:16
  Speaker 5: run a surrender run and the only time they say
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: by doing that is the time that it takes on
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: the shank punt that they had. That was horrendous in
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: game coaching, you you have a veteran quarterback you can
• 4:27
  Speaker 5: throw to end the game. And then you have the
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: Cardiac Bears come down and score on one of the
• 4:32
  Speaker 5: craziest so that won't really be remembered now. But I
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: thought both coaches were really bad. I also thought McDermott
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: was really bad at the end of the first half.
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: We talked about this last week. At the end of
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: first halves. It cost teams games. What were you going
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: to get out of Josh Allen scramming there with no
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: timeouts ends up a fluky fumble field goal which ended
• 4:54
  Speaker 5: up being the difference in the game, and uh, the
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: Bills losing overtime up break City again for Buffalo.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, the Bears defense was better today than I thought
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: they would be, too.
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: I will say that.
• 5:06
  Speaker 5: Brisker played really well. The Rams also weren't prepared for
• 5:09
  Speaker 5: like a slot blitz, like what did you watch the
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: second half last week? So I don't I don't know.
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: Maybe they were just were too cold after all. But
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: the Bears defense did play a lot better than I
• 5:19
  Speaker 5: expected them to today, So had to to Dennis Allen
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: in that group.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: I did think the Bears were the better team today,
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: but Ben Johnson doing what I mean, We've seen this
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: from Sean McVay Sean McVay and Stuck.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: You mentioned it. We saw it a little bit today.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: These offensive geniuses that end up in these big game situations,
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: they just end up frozen hard in the pun with
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: the weather out there, but they just they don't call
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: their traditional game. I mean, you had how many fourth
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: and short, third and short situations where you have a
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: chance to get creative and instead they're calling the most
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: obvious plays in.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: The middle of the field.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, we had one where Caleb Williams was throwing
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: the ball just into traffic down by the goal line,
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: absolutely inexplicable.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: One thing I will say.
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: Is sometimes the ball like it's not that it's not
• 6:13
  Speaker 5: that difficult. The two times they did it, they got it.
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: The two times they didn't, they didn't get it.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: The reverse game that we've seen, the trickeration that we've
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: seen from the Ben Johnson offense, it was just not
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: there at all in these critical situations. I do agree
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: with his self awareness though the decision, and obviously in hindsight,
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: they lost the game. So maybe people are going to
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: pick at this, the decision to kick the extra point
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: at the end of the game, with how much he
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: had zapped his own creativity in these short yarded situations.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: I don't think they were going to convert that two
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: point conversion. So to go to overtime where you had
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: been out playing the Rams put the game essentially on
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: the home field advantage that you have in that situation.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: I had no problem with him kicking the extra either.
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: I absolutely agree with you.
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: I he was actually texting my friend group about that
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: because we all we have a Bears fan in our group,
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: so we've been silently kind of cheering for him, and.
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: We all texted each other.
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: I wholeheartedly expected him to go for two just there,
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: and I'm so glad that he didn't.
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I agree, I agree. I think if you're on
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: the road as the underdog, or if you're at home
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: like getting clearly outplayed, I didn't mind them kicking extra
• 7:19
  Speaker 5: point there and then you know, look to add the
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: ball with a chance to win at midfield. So yeah,
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: I don't think he I don't think he watched that
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: call at all.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: So that sets up a Rams Seahawks NFC championship game.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about that in a bit, but we got
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: to get to the biggest news of the weekend.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: It's the injury to bo Nicks.
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: Like it or not, we are getting Jared Stidham in
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: a conference championship game.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: Stuck.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: He'd we can talk about the Bills aspect of it,
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: and I think that's probably where we'll end up spending
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: most of our time. Do you give the Broncos any
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: shot here against New England with Stidham at quarterback?
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: Uh? Sure, it's I mean it's one it's one football game.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Uh so.
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: Uh like they they're they're gonna need to force turnovers.
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: Peyton's gonna have to be super creative with his play calls.
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: But you know, there's still a lot of uncertainty with
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: this Patriots team, Like, can we see them play a
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: team like that has any starters available? I mean, even today,
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: you get Nico Collins out Schultz I thought had the
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: biggest matchup advantage of all uh and this game gets
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: hurt in the first quarter after he has fifty yards.
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: They were without their right tackle. I mean, like, can
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: we see them play any team with stars? We're not
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: gonna win. The Broncos have offensive line and wide receiver
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: injuries too that have to be monitored, and you're gonna
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: have Trevor Simon in there. So I I just say,
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: Trevor Simon, I'm getting flashbacks for the un today. Yeah,
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: they still signed Ben de Nucci, but uh Stidham. Yeah,
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: I mean, we don't have a huge sample size on Steadham.
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: He had that one huge game randomly against like a good,
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: good forty Niners defense. I think I think that was
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: like late in the year and a meaningless start. But
• 9:04
  Speaker 5: I got to dig in.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: I started, by the way, in over seven hundred days.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: JAHI has not started a game in over seven hundred days.
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: I do think that we've seen, Like the other thing
• 9:15
  Speaker 5: is that the Patriots have faced nothing but backups the
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: entire year. But they've also they didn't face any good
• 9:20
  Speaker 5: defenses the entire season, and we've seen them play two
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: good defenses in the playoffs so far. And Drake May
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: has not looked great. I mean he has what six
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: fumbles and two interceptions in two games. They were pretty
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: lucky to get that one fumble, which maybe the game
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: is different. I mean, Stroud was just so bad it
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: probably wouldn't have mattered. But May and that offensive line
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: are vulnerable and that Benito own company. They're gonna have
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: to get pressure and they're gonna have to force turnovers
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: may his pocket presence has been really bad. So that's
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: how Denver is gonna have to win this game. Peyton's
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: gonna have to be creative. Yeah, they have a chance.
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: I think this it's gone it's out to like five
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: and a half. I think it's gone too far now,
• 10:05
  Speaker 5: like it could end in disaster like that. Clearly, there's
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: still a lot of uncertainty with this Patriots team. But
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: like this is now assuming that bo Nix is worth
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: like a touchdown, come on, like.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: I would have Yeah, I probably would have had him
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: prior to watching him orchestrated game winning drive against the Bills,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: probably would have had him closer to three three and
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: a half.
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think four is like a four to four
• 10:30
  Speaker 5: and a half. You know, maybe like given the circumstances,
• 10:35
  Speaker 5: like with some of the other injuries, you could maybe
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: stretch it to five five and a half, I think.
• 10:42
  Speaker 5: But you know, it's not like bow Nicks lights the
• 10:44
  Speaker 5: world on fire on a weekly basis and is one
• 10:47
  Speaker 5: of the elite quarterbacks in the league. So yeah, I
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: think Denver has a chance. But other injuries to monitor.
• 10:53
  Speaker 5: Patriots are still hardened not to crack because we just
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: don't the data set that we have, and we won't.
• 10:58
  Speaker 5: If they win this game, they're gonna going to the
• 11:00
  Speaker 5: super Bowl with the easiest stretch in the in playoff
• 11:03
  Speaker 5: history and the easiest stretch in regular season history that
• 11:06
  Speaker 5: we've ever seen. So but yeah, the Broncos have a chance.
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: It's it's one football game with an oblong ball, and
• 11:14
  Speaker 5: they're gonna be playing at home against still a young team.
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: I was gonna say, I agree, I think that their
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: chances aren't great, but historically playing in Denver in the
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: postseason has given the Patriots fits. And I also feel
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: a little bit better that he's like the jar. It's
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: not going to be traveling to Mile High.
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: He lives there.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: It's not something that he doesn't deal with every day.
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: The Patriots are going there. If like it was the
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: other way around and I was a backup quarterback who
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: hasn't been training in altitude going to play a playoff
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: game essentially off the couch, I'd probably have a.
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: Few more worries. But history kind of likes Denver here regardless.
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: I will also say it's like a so two things
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: you have. Now all of the pressure is on New England, right, Yeah,
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: so before for you were going on the road, they
• 12:01
  Speaker 5: would have been underdogs, and you're like, all right, if
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: we win this game, we're going to the Super b
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: It's not that much pressure on the Patriots. But now
• 12:11
  Speaker 5: you're playing Jared Stidham like, if you lose this game,
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: so all the pressure.
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: Number two, Jared said him in the Super Bowl.
• 12:21
  Speaker 5: This is a kitchen sink. Kitchen sink game. Yeah right,
• 12:26
  Speaker 5: So number one. You see this when in other sports,
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: when like your star player, your point guard is out,
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: everyone else, you know, tends to rise up. But more importantly,
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: from a play from a play calling perspective, from a
• 12:39
  Speaker 5: schematic perspective, like you're going to get they have to
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: be super creative, everything that you've ever thought of, from
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: Peyton's perspective, Joseph's perspective, you're going to get here. So
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: from a you know, Patriots perspective, trying to prepare for
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: what they're going to see, you know that it might
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: be proved a little bit more difficult. So we'll see
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: if Denver can use that uncertainty to their advantage. Now,
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: the Patriots defense, I have to give them credit. Now,
• 13:06
  Speaker 5: they played Stroud in an injured Texans offense and then
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: you know a Chargers offense with the no offensive line,
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: but you have to give them credit for some of
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: the plays that they've made. The looks they do change
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: up their looks very well disguised things. And now their
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: run defense is much better now that they're healthier at
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: linebacker with Milton Williams. I mean, the Houston can do
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: anything on the ground. The Chargers can do anything on
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: the ground. And you just saw the splits early in
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: the season. Their run defense was dominant late in the
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: season it created with the injuries. Well, now they're healthy again,
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: I do think so. I'm not sure that the reason
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: I bring that up is you have a backup quarterback
• 13:48
  Speaker 5: and a good defense at home, so you might say, like,
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: let's lean on the run game. But that might be
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: a little bit difficult here, which could throw another wrench
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: into it.
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: I have a way too big of a look ahead.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: But if Sean Peyton wins a Super Bowl with Drew
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: Brees and wins a Super Bowl with Jared Stidham, does
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: he become one of the goats?
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Can we table that until we have two weeks to talk.
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: About Jared I said, I said it was too big
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: of a look ahead, But what.
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: Well, there is Sam Donald has an oblique injury, so
• 14:24
  Speaker 5: there is an outside chance that he injures that more
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: and we get Donald Super Bowl, Drew Locke revenge game
• 14:35
  Speaker 5: against Jared Stidham. Yeah, and we'll talk about that for
• 14:39
  Speaker 5: two weeks.
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: That would be So America twenty during.
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: Those two weeks.
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: The last time, I recall, I mean, one of one
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: of my fondest memories as a sports better was betting
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: against Jared Stidham when he was in the Peach Bowl
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: against UCF. They were ten point favorites. Fire recall correctly
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: in that game. Obviously, I went to UCF total homer bet.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: I bet the point spread and the money line, and
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: he folded like a lawn chair.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: And now we get an opportunity to fade him again.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: So full circle moment.
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: You're not pet of or anything at all.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was that was the claimed National Championship season.
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: One thing that I that I did that I feel like,
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: you know, was perhaps the best way to bet into this.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: I don't even know if I'm gonna bet this game.
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: I took the second the bon Knicks news came out.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: I bet the Patriots a plus four to twenty five
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: to win the Super Bowl, and I'll just take my
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: chances with whoever they end up against. And we've seen
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: that number beat up now it's it's been sliced in half.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: So that might just be the way that I look
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: at this is.
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: Let's I'll just say one.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, this was.
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: He literally just said that.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, but I mean they were they were also
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: favored going in.
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: But so they won that game. So obviously the odds
• 16:04
  Speaker 5: are gonna come down. Yeah, so I'm excited for Ram
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: Sahawks again, Like I want what I'm going to spend
• 16:11
  Speaker 5: most of my week doing this week, Like I feel
• 16:14
  Speaker 5: like Denver, New England, you just have to take a stick.
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: You could you just like, look I'm passing. I don't know,
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: or you're just like this is too much of an
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: overreaction to Bonix being out. I lean the ladder, but uh,
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: you know, we have all week to dive into two
• 16:31
  Speaker 5: games the other I really want to dive into Ram Seahawks.
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: We have two games to golf of. But how the
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: Rams that last Rams Seahawks meeting where the Rams look
• 16:42
  Speaker 5: like I bet the Seahawks has got extremely lucky. The
• 16:45
  Speaker 5: Rams look like the clearly better team in target and
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: they put up what six hundred yards on that defense
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: without DeVante Adams. I think Vonta Adams missed that game,
• 16:53
  Speaker 5: if I recall. So that's what I want to spend
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: my time diving into that Rams offense versus Seattle's defense.
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: So at least that game should be pretty good.
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: What we need to dive into right now is what
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: happened with the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos. So
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: he talked about the Broncos moving forward and whether or
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: not they still have a chance and the awful two
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: week look ahead of Jared Stidham potentially in the Super Bowl.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: How much of this is on Josh Allen because he
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: turned the ball over way too much in this game.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: Down the stretch, he put on the cape as he's
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: been doing the last couple of years. We now have
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: seen the Bills first team in NFL history to lose
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: by three points or less in the playoffs in three
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: straight seasons. And then of course you have the controversial
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: was it a catch? Was it not a catch? With
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: ja Kwan, McMillan, and Brandon Cook.
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: So a lot of.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Different ways to dissect this. Kendra, how much of this
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: loss do you put on Josh Allen? Do you view
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: him differently because of the way that this went down.
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: I think a lot of it's on Josh Allen, but
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: it also just kind of comes down to the fact
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: that when they started this season, they weren't expecting it
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: to turn out the way that it did.
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: So it was kind of a little bit.
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: Of a rebuild situation for them. As much as you
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: can rebuild when you have a team like they do,
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: I don't think that they really expect it to be
• 18:23
  Speaker 3: in the position that they were in, and there was
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: a lot of pressure on Josh and he just folded
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: once again, and I kind of do look at him
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: a little bit different because it was never going to
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: be any easier for him. It's not like he had
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: the best team in the world this season, but nobody
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: really has the AFC Like there is no AFC team
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: that is just so much better than everybody else right
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: now that I can discount the loss that they had yesterday.
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: Denver gave them the opportunity to beat them time and
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: time again, and he just really, for lack of a
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: better term at the moment, fumbled it away. And I
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: do look at him a little bit differently. I don't
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: look at it differently for crying because people are being
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: way too mean to him about that.
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: I would cry as well, So let the boy cry.
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: But I don't look at him differently for that, just
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: for how he really kind of seems to crumble in
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: these big moments.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: I don't blame him for crying either.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: He goes through this every year, and now he's got
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: to wait another year to probably go through it again
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: next year. It's like, this guy, as rich as he is,
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: as beautiful as his wife is, and as much as
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: he'll be entering the Hall of Fame one day, his
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: career could end up tormented by this the same way
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: that Dan Marino's was this legendary quarterback that could just
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: never really get to the mountaintop.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Was it a catch? Wasn't it a catch? Stucky? And
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: how much of this do you put on Josh Allen?
• 19:49
  Speaker 5: No, it was not definitely not a catch. I mean,
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: I don't know why people are so confused by it.
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: There was one clear view where he didn't Here's the
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: all you have to ask yourself. If he came down
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: the way that he did with the ball and then
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: it hit the ground, it was not going to be
• 20:02
  Speaker 5: a catch, and it came down into the defender's hands,
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: so that was clearly one not a catch. I don't
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: know why people are so confused, although maybe because no
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: one knows what it catches in the NFL, and they
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: have different rules all the time, Like there was a
• 20:18
  Speaker 5: raven Steelers game which ended up costing that could have
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: cost the Ravens a division earlier this year with Rogers
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: where they called that same play differently. But no, that
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: wasn't a catch. I lowann to take some of the
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: blame he, you know, for some of the turnovers, but
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: he scored thirty points on the Broncos in Denver, like
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: it's the every single every year. By by the way,
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: the last the previous six playoff games, oun didn't have
• 20:39
  Speaker 5: any turnovers and they scored thirty. It's the coaching talked
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: to him McDermot at the end of the half. Some
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: other decisions in that game were very questionable. And it's
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: the defense all the time that lets them down these
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: games and go back and all the Josh Allen playoff losses,
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: they're always scoring into the thirties. The offense has never
• 20:59
  Speaker 5: been the issue. It's always the defense and it once
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: again burned them here. I mean, look who he also
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: number one, He was banged up a lot of injuries
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: on a shore week. He's thrown them a cole hardon
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: and Brandon Cooks like, come on, like, it's how much
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: anything Coleman he put it? Yeah, keon Coleman like, it's
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: been a healthy scratch scoring touchdowns like that. I can't
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: put too much of the blame on Al and obviously
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: has to take some for the turnovers, but the defense
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: has to you're playing the look. I think you have
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: to give credit to the Broncos too, and you have
• 21:34
  Speaker 5: to give credit to the bo Nicks and Peyton I
• 21:37
  Speaker 5: thought had a really good game. I mean they scored
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: two touchdowns on the two plays that the backups were
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: in there, and they targeted them right away. And I
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: mean Darnold Savage shouldn't be in an NFL playoff game,
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: but the Bills had no other options at one point,
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: they target him right away, scored a touchdown, backup corner
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: came in, targeted them late touchdown. So you got to
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: give credit to Bonnicks. You got to give credit to
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: Sean Payton and the Broncos offense as well, but a
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: lot of these losses, it's the coaching and it's the
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: defense to let the Bills down. I think that was
• 22:11
  Speaker 5: the case again. But in fairness to be real, you
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: got to give Alan some some blame for the turnovers
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: that he has. Yeah, I mean the guy who never
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: never turns it over in any of his playoff losses before.
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: So to just put it all on Alan and say
• 22:25
  Speaker 5: he choked, I don't think he's right.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: I don't think he choked.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: I think it was more of a first half meltdown
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: with the turnovers, and then we saw vintage Josh Allen.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: He did miss that it was Dawson Knox over the
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: middle at one point late in the game. But he
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: does so much right that it's hard to place too
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: much of the blame on him. I don't view him
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: as a guy that shrinks in the playoffs. And I
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: think that's the way the conversation for a lot of
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: people is being is being shaped right now, is that
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: this is a guy.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: That just can't win the big one.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: It's not that he can't, it's that he hasn't and
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: there's always some weird shit that goes on in the playoffs.
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: I'm with you, on the catch itself or the non
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: catch the interception. I thought it was clearly an I
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: int I do wish they had looked at it longer.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: I agree with Sean McDermott's complaint that for all the
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: things that we spend ten minutes in the review booth four,
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: it was like.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: Okay, no, that's clearly an interception.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: Let's move on with our lives and the biggest moment
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: of the season for both of these teams. But there's
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: a clear difference between what we saw in that situation
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: and on a lot of folks on social media are
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: trying to compare it to DeVante Adams and and him
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: having possession and then having the ball ripped away by
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: the Chicago Bears today.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: I think the sas.
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: Adams caught him was down is and he hit the
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: ground like yeah, I don't people are get I don't
• 23:48
  Speaker 5: know why people are so confiused comparing those two.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: I think it's an easy still shot to compare. But
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: I just my only complaint is that they should have
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: looked at the Brandon Cook situation longer. They were way
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: too fast to just breeze passed it and then and
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: let's keep the game going. And I'm usually anti review,
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: but in this situation, I felt like they expedited that
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: situation in a way that they should have not. Uh,
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: you guys want to get to some goats and wats, Kendra, who.
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: You got I'm actually going to do? We talked about
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: most of my goats. Josh Allen and the Texans being
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: on their way to Cancun was my goat. But as
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: we were sitting here, I just remembered that my fantasy
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: football group put down a thousand We won like a
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: gift card for a thousand dollars worth of a spread
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: at Hooters in Saugust, Massachusetts for the AFC Championship game
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: like four months ago, having.
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: No idea that it would be the Patriots. So I'm
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: going to.
• 24:42
  Speaker 3: Watch the Patriots Broncos game Hooters and Saugus, Massachusetts.
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: So that's my goat.
• 24:48
  Speaker 6: We have a thousand dollars where the wings booze all
• 24:51
  Speaker 6: the stuff.
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: I'm going to eat so many freaking chicken wings. So
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: that's my goat. Because we talked about my other goats.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: How many people are in on that bill?
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: Twelve? They capped us off at twelve.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you guys are gonna know how much Hooters.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: That is, that's that's a lot of that's a lot
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: of chicken wings, that's a lot of nuggets.
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: So much Hooters.
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: I don't know that you're gonna be uh, I don't
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: know that you're actually going to be available for uh.
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: You're gonna have to put me in a wheelchair after
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: that much chicken. I mighted in buffalo sauce and having
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: the meat sweats for sure.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: What about you, stucky goat?
• 25:28
  Speaker 5: Dalton Schultz had is over and he got there despite
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: playing less than a quarter, So shout out Schultz. I
• 25:35
  Speaker 5: thought that he was a huge loss for the Texans
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: offense after that point. And then my wote is Ben
• 25:43
  Speaker 5: Johnson for all those the short yardage play calling just
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: killed that game in the flow of it.
• 25:49
  Speaker 6: Uh.
• 25:50
  Speaker 5: Luckily it ended up being a great game, but for
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: most of that game, I mean Bears rams and it
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: was like a snoozer for most of the game. So, uh, yeah,
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: those are my my goats and wotes, and I guess
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: I should say, actually my wote will be the forty
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: nine ers special teams. I mean that that game was
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: over on the opening kick and we just had a
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: game that was unwatchable from that point on after she
• 26:18
  Speaker 5: took the opening kickback. I didn't even I didn't watch
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: the fourth quarter. I can't remember the Las playoff game.
• 26:23
  Speaker 5: I didn't watch every minute of I think.
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: We all had a sneaky suspicion that that was going
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: to be when the corpse officially rotted for the San
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: Francisco forty nine ers. That spread was just Kyle Shanahan respect.
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: That's all that was.
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: But you also have did Darnald uncertainty all week with
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: Dale Bleak, which but the Niners just couldn't come up
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: with anything. But once you fall behind against that Seattle defense,
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: its lights out.
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: My goat is bo Nicks.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, he played great and do and he did
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: the walk off interview still on one foot. Nobody caught
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: that until after the fact, adrenaline, probably knowing that his
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: season was done, and he didn't mention it, talked about
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: his teammates, talked about the situation, and then hobbled off
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: the field. I thought that was a really cool look
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: by bo Nix, A lot of respect for him.
• 27:16
  Speaker 5: He honestly might not have known it and just thought
• 27:19
  Speaker 5: he was saying down though, because well, now, yeah, he
• 27:21
  Speaker 5: knew that he got banned up, but he wouldn't He
• 27:23
  Speaker 5: might not have known aw sears wasn't. I mean adrenaline,
• 27:25
  Speaker 5: I'm sure in that situation end of the Games is
• 27:29
  Speaker 5: high for an athlete as you'll ever see.
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: So I broke my ankle and didn't know for like,
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: like I thought that I had just rolled it for
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: a couple of hours and in the middle of the
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: night it like doubled up in size. It like took
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: a while for me to feel it. I'm not an athlete.
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: I didn't break my ankle the same way he did.
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying it took me a while to feel it.
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: So I with the adrenaline and everything, I wouldn't be
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: surprised because I woke up at three o'clock in the
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: morning and like was like, I need to go to
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: the hospital right now.
• 27:54
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I've tore my acls, but both my acls ripped
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: a part of me and actually it didn't hurt the time.
• 28:01
  Speaker 5: As weird as that is, but after different story. But yeah,
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: I mean, how of a perform Knicks deserves a ton
• 28:08
  Speaker 5: of credit for his performance.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, well I would have been in tears, so go
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: for me.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: Well, I'm gonna. I guess, I mean c J. Stroud
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: third time in the divisional round. He has a grand
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: total of one touchdown pass and four interceptions. And by
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: the way, that entire stat accumulation all occurred today, hadn't
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: done anything prior to this average margin of defeat fifteen
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: points for CJ. Stroud. I mean, he's he was so
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: bad in these last two games. I know that it's
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: it's kind of like hot take talk radio stuff. I
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: would seriously be questioning is this the guy that we
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: need to be moving forward with? With how bad he
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: has been awful in these situations? Just a complete meltdown.
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they had serious conversations about if they want what
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: they want to do a quarterback, I have a championship
• 28:57
  Speaker 5: caliber defense. And mean, I get that they had the
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: injuries on offense too, but Stroud did not play anywhere
• 29:04
  Speaker 5: close to good enough today. And look, Drake may should
• 29:10
  Speaker 5: say he's got to send gift baskets to Herbert and
• 29:14
  Speaker 5: Stroud because Drake may is not I mean, he has
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: six fumbles in two games, but the quarterbacks have been
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: so bad against him. There's just no talk about Drake
• 29:22
  Speaker 5: may So but Stroud. It was ugly like some of
• 29:29
  Speaker 5: the throws he was missing were bad to throw where
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: he just threw it up in the air to nobody.
• 29:38
  Speaker 5: I mean, you can't make that throw in the.
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: Playoffs, Josh Allen like toss back weird, like flick yesterday.
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: I needed to talk about that. What the hell was that?
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: And that's part of the reason why he's not blamed
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: free And while that didn't necessarily go on the.
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: War, maybe one of the worst decisions I've seen in
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: the postseason, like recency bias maybe, but that was I
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: literally said out loud, what the fuck was that?
• 30:07
  Speaker 5: No, the worst decision is was strout today and then
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: to pick to pick six like that that throw had
• 30:14
  Speaker 5: he just said that's it and just threw it up
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: in the air like down, like take the sat there.
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: You're gonna watch all of these games back tomorrow.
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: I will never watch that Texans Patriots game.
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: I can't wait. I'm gonna hate watch the ship out
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: of that fact of.
• 30:31
  Speaker 5: That game went over. Both teams average like three and
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: a half yards per play, neither got the two hundred
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: and fifty.
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: Yards turnovers turnovers.
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: I feel bad for Kendra that she has to do
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: sports talk in the town that's gonna pretend like schedules
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: don't matter.
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: It has been a calling point all week long.
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: People, you know, the old guys from like Medford or like,
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: you play the schedule that's in front, Like.
• 30:57
  Speaker 5: Who cares? You an easy schedule? That's the dream. I
• 31:00
  Speaker 5: would love for my team to have the easiest schedule
• 31:02
  Speaker 5: in the NFL. Play nobody, go to the super Bowl?
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: People?
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: Why are people so offended that you don't play anyone?
• 31:08
  Speaker 5: That should be the goal, play backup quarterbacks every week?
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: Just win, go to the super Bowl? Who cares? No
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: one's going to remember fifteen years from now they played
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: nothing but backups all year. But it's okay for people, Well,
• 31:19
  Speaker 5: like what do you Yeah, you'll definitely point out that
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: you played nobody. It's statistical fact that you played the
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: easiest schedule of any team over the past twenty five years.
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: And it's also an undeniable fact that you play nothing
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: but backups every single week. So like, it's okay to
• 31:34
  Speaker 5: point it out. But if I was a Patriots fan,
• 31:36
  Speaker 5: who cares? And why do you care? If other people
• 31:38
  Speaker 5: are pointing it out.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: We're gonna keep it rolling in a moment, But first
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna toss it to Kendra for a word about
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: our partners at DraftKings.
• 31:45
  Speaker 6: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings sportsbook and in
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• 32:16
  Speaker 1: Both conference title games are set.
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: The Patriots are road favorites five and a half points
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: against the Denver Broncos with Jared Stidham at quarterback, and
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: the Rams are at Seattle Seattle laying a point and
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: a half. The Broncos are the largest home underdog in
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: a conference championship game since then nineteen seventy Merger, the
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: largest that we've seen since Brown's cults. That's the Baltimore
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: Cults back in nineteen sixty eight. It's Jared Sidam's first
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: start in seven hundred and forty nine days. Stuckey, I
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: saw you ask the question on Twitter, will this be
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: the worst conference championship game? Or I believe you asked,
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: what was the worst conference championship game that we've ever seen?
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: Perhaps in the lead up to it? I went back
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: to dig through see if I could come up with
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: an answer for you. How about nineteen ninety six the
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Steelers taking on the Indianapolis Colts. It was Neil
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: O'Donnell versus Jim Harbaugh. It wound up being a great game,
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: but in terms of the lead up to it, very
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: similar to what we're getting here.
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: Well, we had Foles Keenum not too long ago. I
• 33:28
  Speaker 5: will I will say if you're looking for yeah, I
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: mean this AFC Championship game. I was saying that it
• 33:34
  Speaker 5: should be on like ESPN News, Nickelodeon, Flying Game, the
• 33:42
  Speaker 5: if you're looking for a long time, I don't even
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: know if there'll be a number out there. But going
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: back to the Patriots playing backups Rams beat the Seahawks,
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: Stafford tears his knee on the kneeling the ball down
• 33:56
  Speaker 5: at the end of the game. Jimmy g super Bowl MVP.
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: If I could find a number on it, I'll look
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: at it. But in all seriousness, Patriotson, you'll have a
• 34:06
  Speaker 5: chance to prove it, I think against starters in the
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: Super Bowl. And then you can shut everyone up.
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: If I saw you go viral yesterday, hate it on
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: the Patriots schedule, stucky, don't you worry here.
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: It's it just pointing out facts. I don't know why
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: people get so upset about it, Like it's it's it's
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: okay to be the soft schedule.
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: Done that to me, and I was like, this is awesome.
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: If you don't like teams drew, if you're not gonna
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: like win your division, you're not gonna make the playoffs.
• 34:38
  Speaker 5: If you're a fan of the team you want to
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: finish in the last you can get a fourth place schedule,
• 34:42
  Speaker 5: improve your odds of getting a better record, improving your
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: playoff positioning. The goal should be to have an easy schedule.
• 34:49
  Speaker 5: And like, if you're think about it, you bet on
• 34:51
  Speaker 5: a team and then it comes out that their quarterback
• 34:54
  Speaker 5: is out, you're happy. You should be happy that you're
• 34:56
  Speaker 5: playing backups. It's crazy.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, especially when you've already won a million Super Bowls.
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: I guess you know. It's not like you're trying to
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: prove yourself.
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: Never enough here, it's never enough.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: I'm still sick that Mike Turrico welcomed people to the
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: broadcasts in the wild card round and said the Patriots
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: back in the playoffs, as the kids say, it's been
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: a minute, Like fuck you.
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: The people here are so entitled.
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: Like there's some three year old right now who's only
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: experienced one title and it was the Celtics.
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: Like, oh no, oh, seven.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: Year olds have had like three titles since I've been here.
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: That's insane.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, highly entitled.
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: All Right, we're gonna spend a lot of time on
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: these games on Tuesday and Thursday, so let's just quick
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: read on either one. On either one of these games,
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: are either of you rushing to the window to bet
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: the Seahawks, Rams Pats or Broncos. Kendra, we'll start with you.
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: The ans or no is acceptable in this particular situation.
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of like the Broncos to cover this
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: number for reasons that I kind of that I already said,
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: just because if that we saw what the Patriots did
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: today and struggling against a good defense. I think if
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: the Broncos can attack them in a similar way and
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: make Drake May uncomfortable and make him turn the ball
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: over like that, and they can get a little bit
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: more lucky.
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: I expect them to probably run.
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: The ball a lot more op be as dangerous as C. J.
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: Stroud was at times today. Maybe they could keep that
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: a little bit closer.
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: So the five and a half I don't hate.
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: And then the total for the Seahawks game, there's a
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: forty seven and a half out there, forty eight and
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: a half. I feel like there's probably gonna be points
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: scored in this game because the Seahawks have a great defense,
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: but we know that the Rams can score, and we
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: know that the Seahawks can put up points.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Well about you stuck.
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: On the number, I lean Broncos right now, but running
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: to bet at no, it's a five and a half,
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: You're in like a dead zey And so where I
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: don't know where this number is going to go? I
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: really don't. So like this's there's a lot of uncertainty.
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: So and like it's a huge game. Public can have
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: a say in these on like a regular season game,
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: just because the volume is so big, and if there's
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: not you know, especially if there's not like strong sharp
• 37:20
  Speaker 5: money opinions, I don't know, it's just going to be
• 37:22
  Speaker 5: a wave of this is the Pats who cover all
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: the time against backups playing another backup and uh you
• 37:30
  Speaker 5: know Stidham stinks and then could we get a six?
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: Like there's no downside of waiting and then this ticks down?
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: Uh so, like I think it's worth just seeing where
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: this line goes. So but I definitely would lean Broncos
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: at the current price. And what's Seahawks two.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: That, Yeah, that's I'm.
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: Not running yet. I got to dive into that in
• 37:57
  Speaker 5: the RAMS.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: I I was gonna say Seattle minus one and a
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: half early bird got the worm. I did not, So
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: I will have to reassess that as we jump around
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: some key numbers there. But I don't know how you
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: could look at Seattle this weekend and not come away
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: from the weekend saying that that looks like your Super
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: Bowl sixty champion. I know that San Francisco is all
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: sorts of banged up, but when you look at all
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: three levels offense, they can kill you. In the past
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: game with JSN run game. They've got two studs special teams.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: Shaheed is playing at a high level defense. They've got
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: probably the best left right there with the Denver Broncos.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: So it in terms of.
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: Who I see as the best team that is still around,
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: it's the Super Bowl favorite right now in the Seattle Seahawks.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: But I'll have to see if that one settles back down.
• 38:54
  Speaker 5: I will say your special teams no is no, no,
• 38:57
  Speaker 5: The Seattle special teams are elite. The Jets, I'm out
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: of the best special teams in the league this year
• 39:02
  Speaker 5: the only they did well, but Seattle was right there.
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: Big special teams advantaged for Seattle in this game. But teams, remember,
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: teams are never as good as they look the week before.
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: So they had a really good matchup against the forty
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: nine ers and everything just snowballed on San Francisco. The
• 39:18
  Speaker 5: Seattle offense has sneakily been broken for two months, and
• 39:23
  Speaker 5: they've had games where they're able to mask it because
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: they get a bunch of defensive touchdowns special teams touchdowns.
• 39:30
  Speaker 5: I mean, Darnold threw for one hundred and ten yards
• 39:32
  Speaker 5: against the Niners. So it's not like we saw this
• 39:35
  Speaker 5: offense magically fixed. I think even like twelve or seventeen,
• 39:39
  Speaker 5: like one hundred and fifteen yards or something. So and look,
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: we saw Seattle beat the Rams recently, but the Rams
• 39:45
  Speaker 5: dominated that game, but of like six hundred yards offense
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: didn't even have their full compliment of weapons, So I
• 39:50
  Speaker 5: think at three i'd have to look at their rams.
• 39:53
  Speaker 5: But I really want to spend a lot of time
• 39:54
  Speaker 5: in that game.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: And we will do that as a collective coming up
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: on Tuesday. Before we get out of here, let's toss
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: it over to Brandon Anderson for the hot read for
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: conference Championships next week.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Hot Wraps who sevent day on ice Rights? Ice Cream?
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: How Real.
• 40:17
  Speaker 7: Championships Sunday? Hot Reid can't say these are the four
• 40:21
  Speaker 7: teams or quarterbacks we expected heading into the season. A
• 40:25
  Speaker 7: little different today on the Hot Red than usual. Only
• 40:28
  Speaker 7: four teams left, So you gotta get a little creative
• 40:30
  Speaker 7: with the picks here today. And I'll tell you from
• 40:33
  Speaker 7: I give you my pick, but I also tell you
• 40:35
  Speaker 7: why this time you might want to wait just a
• 40:37
  Speaker 7: bit to place your bet, and that is because we're
• 40:40
  Speaker 7: going to the AFC, and I mentioned the quarterbacks we
• 40:43
  Speaker 7: are riding with Jared Stidham and the Denver Broncos plus
• 40:47
  Speaker 7: five and a half in the AFC Championship game. What
• 40:50
  Speaker 7: a sentence. I can't believe we're here. Bonneck's broken ankle
• 40:54
  Speaker 7: in overtime, Stidham's gonna make his fifth start over Who
• 40:57
  Speaker 7: in the world wants to Backstidham here? Of course, if
• 41:01
  Speaker 7: you've been betting a while, you know that is exactly
• 41:04
  Speaker 7: when you got to make the play. Start with the line.
• 41:06
  Speaker 7: The look ahead on this game heading into the weekend
• 41:09
  Speaker 7: was Denver minus one and a half. That means this
• 41:13
  Speaker 7: is a seven point swing from Knicks to Stidham, and
• 41:17
  Speaker 7: that is insane to me. There's no way this is
• 41:20
  Speaker 7: a seven point drop off at quarterback. That is Josh Allen,
• 41:24
  Speaker 7: that is Patrick Mahomes type level.
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: Stidham.
• 41:27
  Speaker 7: We don't know a lot about him, but it's not
• 41:29
  Speaker 7: like Knicks is anywhere near that company. I was already
• 41:32
  Speaker 7: pretty low on Knicks anyways. I personally make this maybe
• 41:35
  Speaker 7: two points, maybe a field goal, something in that range.
• 41:39
  Speaker 7: Nothing even remotely close to seven. Even crazier is I
• 41:43
  Speaker 7: actually thought about betting Denver before this weekend on this line.
• 41:47
  Speaker 7: I had Denver overfield goal before the Knicks injury, so
• 41:51
  Speaker 7: Zoo might have been on the matchup. Both teams a
• 41:53
  Speaker 7: bit unproven as we know, both teams maybe a bit
• 41:56
  Speaker 7: fraudulent on this season, but it doesn't matter. They're here
• 41:59
  Speaker 7: and now you beat who's in front of you. Denver
• 42:01
  Speaker 7: does have the unit I trust the most, its defense,
• 42:05
  Speaker 7: and I like the matchup here some things for Denver
• 42:07
  Speaker 7: to watch for all the focus will be on Stidham,
• 42:10
  Speaker 7: but look at that defense, elite, elite pass pressure, one
• 42:13
  Speaker 7: of the best in the league. And we've seen Patriots
• 42:16
  Speaker 7: young offensive line really struggle both against the Texans and
• 42:19
  Speaker 7: the Chargers. That offense has not been that great and
• 42:22
  Speaker 7: either these matchups not super impressive. Denver's corners are really
• 42:26
  Speaker 7: good and importantly, Denver is the number one defense limiting explosives.
• 42:32
  Speaker 7: That is where the Patriots live. They have not been
• 42:34
  Speaker 7: as good matriculating up and down the field, especially in
• 42:38
  Speaker 7: the playoffs. They rely on those big plays number one
• 42:40
  Speaker 7: explosive in the league, number one explosive passing. If Denver
• 42:44
  Speaker 7: can take away those big plays or limit them, keep
• 42:47
  Speaker 7: things close, that's your underdog formula to give you a shot.
• 42:51
  Speaker 7: Patriots defense, I know they have looked good but here's
• 42:53
  Speaker 7: a big swing for them. Look at the Chargers, look
• 42:56
  Speaker 7: at the Texans. What do they have in common? Offensively?
• 42:59
  Speaker 7: Terror offensive line, Denver is one of the best offensive
• 43:03
  Speaker 7: lines in the entire league. So that's a huge swing.
• 43:05
  Speaker 7: I'm gonna make things look a lot different on that
• 43:07
  Speaker 7: side of the ball. And an important stat here, Patriots
• 43:10
  Speaker 7: have been one of the worst teams in the league
• 43:12
  Speaker 7: in the red zone offense and defense both bottom five,
• 43:16
  Speaker 7: Denver top five there. So again, that is a spot
• 43:19
  Speaker 7: where if you're the underdog, one big stop, one big
• 43:23
  Speaker 7: score when it's unexpected, can really swing things. Conference Championship weekend,
• 43:28
  Speaker 7: you want to back the one seed since two thousand
• 43:30
  Speaker 7: and six, twenty one and five straight up are the
• 43:34
  Speaker 7: one seeds by over ten points a game, twenty four
• 43:37
  Speaker 7: percent of the money line. And here's a few more
• 43:39
  Speaker 7: stats for you among those games twelve and three straight
• 43:43
  Speaker 7: up against the two seed. Both of our matchups are sorry,
• 43:47
  Speaker 7: the AFC matchup obviously features that one and five in
• 43:51
  Speaker 7: one straight up as anything under a field goal favorite.
• 43:54
  Speaker 7: Obviously well underfield goal favorite here, huge underdogs at home,
• 43:59
  Speaker 7: think about this, Jared's didham to me? Instead of bone nicks?
• 44:04
  Speaker 7: You're looking at Denver being more like Pittsburgh now, worse offense,
• 44:09
  Speaker 7: not great I don't want to back Pittsburgh too much.
• 44:11
  Speaker 7: But great defense, great coaching at home, underdog script, chance
• 44:17
  Speaker 7: to win. That's what we're looking at. Here did them
• 44:20
  Speaker 7: in the Broncos plus five and a half at home? Now,
• 44:23
  Speaker 7: I said at the top, you may want to wait.
• 44:25
  Speaker 7: So here's the spot for that four points. Five points
• 44:28
  Speaker 7: kind of a dead zone for the most part in
• 44:30
  Speaker 7: this range. So if you wait and the line moves
• 44:33
  Speaker 7: a half a point or a point, you're probably not
• 44:35
  Speaker 7: losing much. But this is slowly moving up already. And look,
• 44:40
  Speaker 7: everyone's gonna want to bet the Patriots. People think this
• 44:42
  Speaker 7: is a fate accompany. I think we probably hit six.
• 44:45
  Speaker 7: We could even push six and a half or seven.
• 44:48
  Speaker 7: Those are key numbers. You definitely want to wait and
• 44:50
  Speaker 7: grab that if you can. So we're making the hot
• 44:52
  Speaker 7: red pick. I'm giving you Denver. They're the side. I
• 44:54
  Speaker 7: will be ond because this is an insane number, but
• 44:57
  Speaker 7: you may get a better number if you wait just
• 44:59
  Speaker 7: a bit into the week. On the other side of
• 45:02
  Speaker 7: the bracket, NFC Awesome Division, a rematch between the league's
• 45:06
  Speaker 7: two best teams, both games we've saw this season were great.
• 45:10
  Speaker 7: I don't know yet who wins that one, but here's
• 45:12
  Speaker 7: what I do know. I'm gonna like whoever wins that
• 45:14
  Speaker 7: one in the Super Bowl. So last couple of months,
• 45:17
  Speaker 7: I've had these two teams Rams and Seahawks first or
• 45:19
  Speaker 7: second in either order in my power ratings, lapping the
• 45:22
  Speaker 7: field multiple tiers ahead of the field. I have them
• 45:25
  Speaker 7: at least three points better than any other team on
• 45:27
  Speaker 7: a neutral and I don't exactly have Denver or New
• 45:30
  Speaker 7: England third in my power ratings. I actually make either
• 45:34
  Speaker 7: NFC team at this point at least a seven point
• 45:37
  Speaker 7: favorite against Denver and about six against New England as well.
• 45:41
  Speaker 7: So all the better here on this bet. If we
• 45:44
  Speaker 7: think Denver is live at home, you get to face
• 45:47
  Speaker 7: Jared's did them in a super Bowl in that case,
• 45:50
  Speaker 7: But I'm gonna like the NFC team in the Super Bowl,
• 45:52
  Speaker 7: And at most books you can just bet that NFC
• 45:55
  Speaker 7: to win the Super Bowl minus two twenty. At our
• 45:57
  Speaker 7: sponsored DraftKings, that's the bet here. My math makes the
• 46:01
  Speaker 7: NFC about a six and a half point favorite right now.
• 46:03
  Speaker 7: Given the teams we've got left, that would be around
• 46:06
  Speaker 7: a minus three hundred money line about seventy five percent
• 46:10
  Speaker 7: minus two twenty. We're getting about sixty nine percent, so
• 46:13
  Speaker 7: a little bit of edge in our favor there. Hopefully
• 46:17
  Speaker 7: you played this this weekend. My bet we gave out
• 46:19
  Speaker 7: on the podcast Seattle money Line, Rams money line plus NFC.
• 46:23
  Speaker 7: We got this at plus two twenty. Now we're getting
• 46:25
  Speaker 7: it out at minus two twenty, still odds in our
• 46:28
  Speaker 7: favorite And if your book doesn't have this, you can
• 46:30
  Speaker 7: build this by yourself. Take your bet split in a
• 46:33
  Speaker 7: half Seattle to win the Super Bowl plus one sixty
• 46:36
  Speaker 7: Rams plus two twenty five. You just bet both of
• 46:38
  Speaker 7: those together. You've built this bet at about minus two
• 46:41
  Speaker 7: twenty five and you're really not losing much on the
• 46:43
  Speaker 7: bet there. So that is today's hot read NFC to
• 46:47
  Speaker 7: win the Super Bowl minus two twenty in part because
• 46:50
  Speaker 7: Denver is live. Jared Stidham plus five and a half
• 46:53
  Speaker 7: home with the Broncos. That is our championship game hot read.
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: That'll do it for us here this evening. If you
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: want to keep up with everything we've got going on
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: this week Tuesday episode Thursday episode found on the Action
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: Network YouTube page. When we talk Conference title weekend in
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: the NFL we'll.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: See you next time.
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: Here on the Favorites presented by DraftKings, I'm Brandon Kravitz,
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: She's Kendri Middleton.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: He's Stucky or Out.
• 47:30
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