Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Peter Baker on U.S. strategy in Iran war 'They dont seem to have much of a plan'

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Peter Baker on U.S. strategy in Iran war 'They dont seem to have much of a plan' · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: President Trump and Vice President J.D.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: Vance are facing backlash for comments appearing to downplay the
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: war in Iran.
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  Speaker 1: It started Thursday when Vance claimed.
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  Speaker 2: The conflict is not a war because there is, quote,
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  Speaker 2: no active shooting. On Friday, Trump defended Vance's comments, calling
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  Speaker 2: the war small potatoes and not a big thing, rather,
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  Speaker 2: an assessment Democrats are pushing back on.
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  Speaker 4: How childlike.
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  Speaker 3: To not admit to the gravity of where we are
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  Speaker 3: by the president's own choice. It is childlike. And of course,
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  Speaker 3: most importantly, it's very dangerous. We've lost 18 service members.
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  Speaker 3: This is not a small potatoes matter.
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  Speaker 2: Joining me now is my Saturday bestie, Peter Baker, MSNL
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  Speaker 2: contributor and chief White House correspondent for The New York Times. So, Peter,
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  Speaker 2: for our final weekend together on the air, let's try
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  Speaker 2: to hit as many topics as we can, starting with
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  Speaker 2: your article where you write, for Trump, the Iran war
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  Speaker 2: is stuck between combat and genuine peace. How have the
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  Speaker 2: uncertainties of this war affected Trump's psyche? And does the
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  Speaker 2: administration have any idea where to go from here?
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  Speaker 4: Well, they don't give any impression that they do.
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  Speaker 5: They seem to be stuck in, we say, this kind
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  Speaker 5: of quasi stasis where we're not really fully in big
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  Speaker 5: time combat and we're not obviously at peace without resolution.
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  Speaker 5: And you just talked about with your previous guests, you know,
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  Speaker 5: they don't seem to have much of a plan going forward.
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  Speaker 5: I think that they think it's kind of an anaconda strategy.
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  Speaker 4: That's what some of their allies say. that they can
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  Speaker 4: squeeze Iran over time.
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  Speaker 5: But so far, anyway, that hasn't affected Iran's calculation. And
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  Speaker 5: the original plan for a four to six week conflict
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  Speaker 5: or war, whatever word you want to use, we're now
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  Speaker 5: into its seventh month.
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  Speaker 2: Well, The Washington Post reports that Trump now plans to
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  Speaker 2: use his Qatari jet when he travels to Ireland next week.
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  Speaker 2: Of course, this after your Times colleagues broke those critical
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  Speaker 2: stories about the security concerns around the gifted plane.
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  Speaker 1: Peter, have those issues been resolved?
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  Speaker 5: I don't think so. At least that they have not
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  Speaker 5: reported to us that they have been. Now, Ireland, I think,
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  Speaker 5: is seen as a safer venue than going to Turkey,
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  Speaker 5: which is closer to the Middle East, closer to Iran.
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  Speaker 5: That was the concern when he was there for the
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  Speaker 5: NATO summit, that there could be some sort of a
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  Speaker 5: threat against the plane industry.
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  Speaker 4: From some sort of an Iranian source.
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  Speaker 5: That obviously seems less likely in Ireland, but there had
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  Speaker 5: been a lot of talk about whether he should ever
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  Speaker 5: take it overseas at all and only use it for domestic.
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  Speaker 4: Travel.
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  Speaker 5: So obviously they decided, at least in this instance, that
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  Speaker 5: they feel comfortable doing that.
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  Speaker 2: Well, as you know, right now, Middle East Special Envoy
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  Speaker 2: Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, they're in Russia.
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  Speaker 2: They're heading out to Ukraine as well. They're hoping to
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  Speaker 2: finally broker peace between the two. Peter, haven't we seen
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  Speaker 2: this movie before in some form? Has anything changed to
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  Speaker 2: make peace more likely now? It is one of Trump's
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  Speaker 2: biggest promises made, promises not kept, issues, since he said
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  Speaker 2: he'd wrap it up on day one, right?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, he actually said he would wrap it up before
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  Speaker 4: day one.
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  Speaker 5: He said it was so easy to solve, he said
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  Speaker 5: during the campaign, that he would solve it between his
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  Speaker 5: election and inauguration day. He also said that he would
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  Speaker 5: get it done in 24 hours. Neither of those things,
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  Speaker 5: of course, has turned out to be true. It's turned
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  Speaker 5: out to be much more intractable than he ever imagined.
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  Speaker 5: And there's nothing that at the moment seems likely to
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  Speaker 5: lead to a breakthrough. You know, both sides are hitting
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  Speaker 5: deep inside each other's territory with long range weapons, missiles, drones,
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  Speaker 5: and that kind of thing, causing a great deal of
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  Speaker 5: of damage and hardship, especially for Ukrainians, but even now
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  Speaker 5: for some Russians. But you can't see an obvious way
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  Speaker 5: out at this moment that either side has left open.
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  Speaker 5: It is interesting that Wyckoff and Kushner are going to
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  Speaker 5: go to Kyiv. This is the first time in all
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  Speaker 5: these years or all these months that they've been negotiating
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  Speaker 5: that they've even gone to Ukraine to see it for themselves.
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  Speaker 5: So that's one thing.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, it is.
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  Speaker 2: Well, let's together take a look at the next two
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  Speaker 2: years and start with the midterm election space. The president
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  Speaker 2: sees himself as a positive factor, a positive influence for candidates.
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  Speaker 2: Is he almost alone in that thinking? Because there's a
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  Speaker 2: new headline in Axios today, we're stuck. The GOP accepts
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  Speaker 2: Trump's all about me midterms. Is there a sense of resignation, Peter,
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  Speaker 2: with the GOP candidates, but knowing that aligning with Trump
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  Speaker 2: is a losing proposition?
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  Speaker 5: Well, look, they understand that he hovers over this election, right?
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  Speaker 5: And in some ways, what he does bring to the
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  Speaker 5: table are, A, fundraising extraordinary amounts of money, which is important,
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  Speaker 5: and B, energy for the MAGA base. And in a
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  Speaker 5: midterm election, when you have a lower turnout than you
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  Speaker 5: do during a presidential election, turnout matters. And if he
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  Speaker 5: can get the base excited enough to turn out in
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  Speaker 5: larger numbers than the other side, then obviously that's good.
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  Speaker 5: But the base right now seems to be a little...
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  Speaker 5: depressed and shrunken, at least according to polls. And he
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  Speaker 5: says these are all fake polls. But the Democrats certainly
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  Speaker 5: feel like they've got momentum on their side. The Republicans
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  Speaker 5: clearly feel that they don't. They also recognize, though, that
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  Speaker 5: he's not going to sit back and let them run
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  Speaker 5: a campaign without him.
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  Speaker 4: So they have to make the best of it, in
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  Speaker 4: their view.
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  Speaker 2: So Democrats have been making a list of possible Trump-centered
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  Speaker 2: investigations they will launch if they take back the House,
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  Speaker 2: including a probe into the Trump family finances and possible corruption.
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  Speaker 2: Trump has already amassed $ 2 billion since returning to office.
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  Speaker 1: How much further can he go?
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  Speaker 2: And is there even an infrastructure in place today to
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  Speaker 2: stop him?
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  Speaker 5: Well, I mean, remember, he has dismantled a lot of
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  Speaker 5: the instruments of accountability, right? He got rid of the
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  Speaker 5: inspectors general who were seen as too independent for him.
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  Speaker 5: He has made clear the Justice Department is to answer
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  Speaker 5: to him not just on policy, but on individual investigations
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  Speaker 5: and prosecutions. And with Republicans in control of Congress, there
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  Speaker 5: hasn't been the kind of oversight you might normally see
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  Speaker 5: on Capitol Hill. Now, that would change if Democrats were
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  Speaker 5: to win. They definitely have the subpoena power that comes
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  Speaker 5: with the gavel. Whether or not Trump would cooperate with
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  Speaker 5: these subpoenas, whether he would fight them on that, we
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  Speaker 5: don't know. But it would certainly raise more attention, draw
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  Speaker 5: more attention to a lot of the issues that we've
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  Speaker 5: seen where there's been a lot of money flowing into subpoenas.
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  Speaker 5: Trump's family, Trump's personal accounts and the friends of his
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  Speaker 5: who have been, you know, making a lot of money
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  Speaker 5: in the Middle East and so forth. At the same time,
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  Speaker 5: policies being made there.
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  Speaker 4: OK.
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  Speaker 1: I'm fighting back tears. I'm so grateful for you.
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  Speaker 4: It's a tough weekend, but.
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  Speaker 5: Let me just say you are the best, and you
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  Speaker 5: have made such a remarkable run here on MSNOW and
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  Speaker 5: before MSNBC. We are lucky, the guests who have been
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  Speaker 5: on your show, to have worked with you, and your
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  Speaker 5: audience is incredibly lucky to have had you help them
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  Speaker 5: make sense of everything that's going on. We're going to
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  Speaker 5: miss you, but we're so wonderfully appreciative of everything you've done,
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  Speaker 5: and you're the best.
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  Speaker 1: Well, couldn't have done it without you.
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  Speaker 5: I'm grateful.
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  Speaker 1: And I will be in touch. You'll get an email soon.
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  Speaker 4: Don't worry.
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  Speaker 1: Peter, thank you. And thanks, Susan, for giving you up
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  Speaker 1: all these Saturdays.
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  Speaker 4: Oh, my goodness.
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  Speaker 1: Just to hang out with me. Thanks.