Latest / Financial Survival Network / Has the Fed Really Paused - John Rubino #5840

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Has the Fed Really Paused - John Rubino #5840 · Financial Survival Network

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Germany has tipped into recession along with the rest of Europe, like you said,
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and they just came out their finest minister came out and said, we
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don't have any money left or the rest of the rest of the EU,
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you know. And so Germany apparently is not going to backstop all these other
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deck ridden countries in the Euro's hunt. Meanwhile, there's still shoveling money at
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Ukraine. You know, They're up to well seventy seven billion dollars so far
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and they're they're headed for another seven. They've got another seventy some billion in
0:29
the pipeline, so they're they're shoveling money out the door. You're listening to
0:35
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You are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,
1:06
Carrie Lutts. John Robino is with us now. You find his work at
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robinot substact dot com go there subscribed today. Well, John, the madness
1:17
never stops, right, but on good news the Fed. The Fed half
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paused, right, they paused with a big stick. I guess, hey,
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Kary, Well it's not even clear what they did or why really,
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because yes, they did not raise interest rates at the last meeting last week,
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but they promised to keep raising interest rates at future meetings, so it's
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not clear anything got resolved. And the financial markets kind of had a relief
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rally in anticipation of the Fed pausing, as if that does anything. But
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then on Friday last week everything turned around and went back down because I think
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people got a chance to pink it through. And first of all, if
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if interest rates are going to stay this high and there was, the Fed
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stays paused, that is basically further tightening monetary system. Because every time any
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any depth rolls over at the new higher interest rate, that tightens the monetary
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conditions of whoever is doing the rolling over, So things keep getting tighter.
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And then if the Fed comes back and does what it says it's going to
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do and keeps raising interest rates, then you know monetary policy is overtly tighter
2:30
going forward. Which is bad for the financial markets. So stocks and bonds
2:35
might have finally concluded that we're nowhere near the end of this, and so
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stocks kind of they were up most of the day on Friday, and then
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they tanks, so there was a triple witching options day, so that could
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have been part of it. But I kind of think that it was just
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the buy on the rumors, sell on the fact or on the event kind
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of thing where Okay, this thing happened that we were buying about, and
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now we realize it's not that good, so we're going to sell. And
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I think that's really the theme going forward, that financial assets are wildly overpriced
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given today's interest rates. So unless we cut interest rates traumatically, stocks shouldn't
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be this high. Bonds it's hard to know about bonds in this whole thing,
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but stocks in real estate or get it, they're they're vastly overpriced and
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they need to come back down. Yes, yep, yep, for sure.
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And then look at what's happening in Europe, and besides the war,
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looks like they're they're full they have a full blown recession going on. Yeah,
3:44
yeah, Europe is now in recession, but there's a you know,
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a bigger thing at work here, which is that the only reason the Eurozone
3:53
as has hung together is because Germany, the European Central Bank, which Germany
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controls, has been backstock stopping everybody else. So you know, if you
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buy an Italian bond, you're really buying a German bond because Germany stands behind
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the Italian bondm Well, first of all, Germany has tipped into recession along
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with the rest of Europe, like you said, and they just came out
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their finance minister came out and said, we don't have any money left or
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the rest of the rest of the EU, you know. And and so
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Germany apparently is not going to backstop all these other debt ridden countries in the
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Euros hunt. Meanwhile, there's still shoveling money at Ukraine. You know,
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they're up to well seventy seven billion dollars so far and they're they're headed for
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another seven. They've got another seventies some billion in the pipeline. So they're
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they're shoveling money out the door when they're desperately borrowing money just to cover day
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to day expenses and their interest costs. Since the ECB Israel's interest rates sort
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of the same way the Fed did. Everybody's interest costs in Europe are going
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through the roof. Every time any debt gets rolled over, it's at that
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new higher rate. So Italy is functionally bankrupt. So it's Greece and several
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other European countries at these interest rates. So now we have this thing going
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where if the ECB stays tight, which it apparently is going to do because
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it just raised interest rates last week, even though the FED didn't raise interest
5:28
rates, that means that several countries and a whole bunch of companies and individuals
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in Europe are going to teeter off the cliff and then go bankrupt and they're
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going to have this amazing, huge financial crisis, or the ECB has to
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reverse course in the hurry and start cutting interest rates, which will probably impact
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the euro. You know, it'll tank the euro. So they're in that
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box that we always said was coming, where standing pat is a disaster and
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going back to easy money, which always worked in the past, is now
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a designister. Oh and another thing that you sure is doing at the same
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time is they're enacting their version of a new Green Deal where they're they're getting
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rid of. For instance, Germany got rid of all of its nuclear plants
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and tried to replace those with Russian natural gas, which didn't work out too
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well for them, and now they're not sure what to do, but they're
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going ahead with it anyhow, and the rest of the EU is on board
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with this, so they're you know, they're they're buying up and closing down
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farms all over the place because you know, farming is a polluting activity,
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so it appears that you know, they're borrowing money to fund the Ukraine War.
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They're seizing and closing down farms. They're mandating that all cars become electric
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in the very new future, and they're doing it without any sense of where
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all this money is supposed to come from, because they're out of money.
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You know, they just create an internet amount of new euros and paper over
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all of this stuff, so it you know, I did a piece on
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Substack this week called easy Money Makes You Stupid, European Edition, and it's
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about pins and that's basically what it is. If money is easy for too
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long, you forget that money has to come from somewhere, you know,
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you think it's just something that emerges out of thin air. Yeah yeah,
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and the European leadership is in that boat. So major crisis coming. The
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question is what's the best way to short European stocks right now? Well,
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it's really interesting is that nat gas, which prices had really settled down they
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were less than fifty percent what they were at the peak, over the past
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few weeks have gone up like fifty plus percent, and no one can quite
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figure out why, other than the fact that Netherlands shut down the largest producing
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nat gas field in Europe for some reason that I haven't been able to ascertain.
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Well, because it's a fossil fuel, so as they probably figured,
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well, we're shutting down all our farmers, we might as well shut down
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all our natural gas production too, um and so who knows. You know,
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there there's really no rhyme or reason to what Europe is doing unless you
8:20
you go meta and conclude that there is a broader plan at work to destroy
8:28
the major world economies in order to create a pretext for the imposition of central
8:33
bank digital currencies and and mass surveillance and YadA yadah, you know the whole
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um. Oh, what's the term Slashwab's term um any outsum you know what,
8:45
the Great Reset. Yeah, so that all pretext for the Great Reset.
8:52
And if you look at it that way, that it makes some sense.
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But if you look at it as countries honestly trying to manage them selves
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in ways that are sustainable going forward, now it makes no sense at all,
9:05
because they're doing the wrong thing in every case if they want to be
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around as they're currently configured ten years from now. So one thing I'm adding
9:15
to this the China meltdown. So the problem is when you're watching youtubees,
9:22
you have no idea unless they tell you upfront, which I always do,
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who paid for this, who's funding this? It looks like we've got the
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emergence of like radio free Ukraine or Europe that has come up on YouTube's it's
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kind of ultra nationalist, like America's winning against China. But on the other
9:46
hand, there is a lot of negative stuff happening in China that is more
9:52
or less undeniable, particularly their real estate issue, the unemployment, youth unemployment
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at like twenty nine percent, and the demographic implosion. All these things are
10:05
true. Is it something they have a handle on? Are they in control?
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I don't know the answer to that, but I do know that there's
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an interesting situation that, you know, we need to play a closer attention
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to. Yeah, you know, you can't manage your way out of a
10:28
financial bubble. You just you take it to a certain point and then it
10:31
bursts and you have to then manage the consequences of the bust. And so
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China's pretty much right there. Their real estate bubble was it looks like it
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was bigger than Japan's in the nineties and the US bubble in the two thousands,
10:48
and now yeah, yeah, and now which our bubble is is,
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if anything, bigger right now than the bubble of the two thousands, But
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it looks like China's is even bigger than that. Something like seventy four household
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net worth in China has wrapped up in real estate because there was nowhere else
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for Chinese people to put their money, which means it's not just a financial
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crisis, it's a political crisis. If seventy four percent of the country is
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impoverished by something that flowed from government policy, the Chinese leadership must be terrified
11:22
of the consequences of that. And plus, you know, if people weren't
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already really mad about real estate. They have to be mad about lockdowns because
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China. I mean, we were bad. We ruined half the small businesses
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in the country and costs most of our kids one or two years of social
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development in and you know, what we did was terrible, but China was
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vastly worse. You know they we saw those videos people just locked in their
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buildings going I'm hungry. Oh yeah, it's for the building was on fire,
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and they still wouldn't let them out. China did that, and they're
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people, you know, they don't have a free media there, but there
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people still must in fragments none, I guess John, we don't have one
12:11
either. Yeah. Actually, you know what we do. It's just not
12:16
the mainstream media. You know. You and I can go online and find
12:18
Playing Greenwald today and Matt Taybe tomorrow, and then go see Joe Rogan interview
12:24
JFK j or RFK Junior. You know, all of that is available to
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us because we know where to look. You're right though, that the average
12:33
person who still wakes up in the morning and turns on Morden Joe and then
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watches Box or MSNBC at night, they don't have a free press. But
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at least it's available here and you're not put in jail for doing it.
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But in China it's a very dangerous thing to do to try to get true
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information. So presumably a lot of their people don't know everything that's going on,
12:58
but you know, I think they know enough. It'd be really mad,
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and the government knows that and should be terrified. They know more than
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than we think, so you know it all it's funny how it's all connected,
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you know, their meltdown, it's like, it's the entire world here
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that we're talking about. It's not just Europe or the United States that's a
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basket case. It's in Russia. It's the entire globe here, John,
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you know, yeah, it's it's absolutely global because everybody has an unlimited currency
13:31
printing press. So you know, instead of country specific crises, we're gonna
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have a global crisis here, and it doesn't matter where it starts. Any
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major country blowing up like this Europe thing. You know, if the Eurozone
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breaks up and billion dollars of Eurozone debt reverts back to Italy and Greece and
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becomes you know, halfway worthless in the process, that would be enough blow
13:56
up the big banks who are you know, who are dependents on that debt
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and pension funds and insurance companies, and then that would spread to the US,
14:05
and then it would spread to China. Um. And you know,
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it's funny. They're only a handful of countries that aren't participating in this,
14:13
and Switzerland is kind of sort of one, and Russia is another one.
14:16
You know, they're they're not on a debt binge, and part of that
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is because they have so much oil, you know, they can afford to
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finance themselves without having to borrow so much. But but yeah, it's ironic
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that Russia is actually getting it right financially and the supposedly free, supposedly wise
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countries of the world are just blowing it on an epic biblical scale. And
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it's all about to come home to ruse. So what about talking to real
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estate and CRI and all that good stuff. Um, you know, when
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you look at that in San Francisco, the biggest hotel reach just basically did
14:58
jingle male just sent the keys to the hotels, thousands of rooms to the
15:03
lenders. And you know that's just the tip of the iceberg here. Well,
15:09
San Francisco is sort of the poster child for incredibly bad management leading to
15:15
a commercial real estate bust. And then for them it's it's a done deal.
15:20
There's no out of it. There are all these buildings out there that
15:22
are only worth half of what they're carried on their lenders books ask so they're
15:30
going to be sold, or they're going to default and directed back to the
15:33
lender or something. Something will happen to reveal the true value. And then
15:39
the banks and the insurance companies and the pension funds who own the debt or
15:43
the buildings outright are going to have to report those losses. So it'll start
15:50
in San Francisco. You know, San Francisco might not even be an actual
15:52
city ten years from now. It's not clear what the solution is. You
15:58
would have to just you would have to elect people who are functionally Republican,
16:03
like a Rudy Giuliani kind of mayor there, which would never happen, but
16:07
you would. You would need somebody to go in and go, Okay,
16:11
you know, from now on, everything that's illegal is an actual crime.
16:15
We're gonna we're gonna lock you up for sleeping on the street and for shoplifting
16:21
and everything, and just clean house, and that's not going to happen because
16:25
there is never going to be a majority of San Franciscans who would vote for
16:27
that. But in the absence of that, San Francisco is just going down
16:33
the drain now. And you know, and I don't know what the solution
16:37
is, except that it's one of those laboratory of democracy things where we get
16:42
we all get to try different things, and we see how it works out,
16:45
and we see some models fail, and this is going to be a
16:49
model that is shown to fail, which I think will be really useful in
16:55
other mayorial races out there, because you're running for city government and you've got
17:00
San Francisco to run against. That makes a clean streets, law and order
17:07
platform a lot easier to sell. So, you know, when you talk
17:11
about cities imploding, you know, little violence across the country over the past
17:17
weekend shootings, mass shootings all over the place, mostly in these failing cities,
17:23
but elsewhere as well. You know, it looks like the country is
17:30
just coming undone. Yeah, yeah, and we absolutely are, which is
17:36
basically what happens when you screw up your financial system. You know, if
17:40
you borrow too much money, life gets hard or working class people. And
17:45
that's the majority of the people in the country who see the system is failing
17:48
them. And as Gerald Salente likes to say, when when people lose everything,
17:53
they lose it. Yeah, on last week, you know, he
17:59
must be having a lot of fun with all his prediction is turning out to
18:03
be true here. Well, he predicted World War three, which hopefully that
18:07
one doesn't work. I hope like that one to be wrong. On Bud,
18:11
he predicted to this like endless war for many, many years. He's
18:15
been talking about that, and it looks like we're in the thick endless war.
18:22
And you know that I find like completely distressing when you go back the
18:26
history of the United States, all two hundred and nearly fifty years we've been
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at this, we only had like twelve or twenty two years of peace where
18:37
we weren't at war with somebody during that time. John, Yeah, Well,
18:41
and it's much worse now than it was back then. Ian It was
18:44
bad then, but now, I mean, we are basically run by an
18:48
aristocracy that profits from people being sick and from endless war. And you know,
18:56
they're running the government. It doesn't matter whether there's a Republican or Democrat
19:00
president, because the people who make policy behind the scenes are all making fortunes
19:07
off selling arms to every rushfire war and every proxy war out there, and
19:12
they seem even to think that it's worth rolling the dice on a nuclear war
19:15
because can you imagine the you know, we go to nuclear war, how
19:21
much it would cost to rebuild our military afterwards, and they wouldn't make all
19:26
that money about it. We need to worry about it? Then, Yeah,
19:30
this whole thing. It just and I think that the full Biden bribery
19:37
scandal is tied in with endless war. I find it hard to believe.
19:44
I mean, obviously we're speculating here that if Trump had been reelected that he
19:51
there would be a war in Ukraine. Now, I just don't think it
19:52
would have happened. Well, there wasn't when he was there. So that's
19:56
that's the data point we've got. We've got those four years with no new
20:00
wars, you know, and that's a that's a good thing to run on
20:04
if you're Donald Trump, because that's a real thing that actually happened that he
20:08
presided over. And so you can you know, we can say, yeah,
20:11
but given two more years and we're probably in World War three. I
20:15
mean, that's the that's why you run against that statement of his. But
20:18
you know, he's got the evidence. You've got conjecture if you're arguing with
20:22
that, and I you know, who would have thought that looking back on
20:26
the Trump years, they were the good old days when we felt safe in
20:30
the years and the Bush years with the wars and all that. Oh yeah,
20:36
yeah, it wasn't as bad as this. But you know, the
20:40
Trump indictment and then they just overlook the president's exact same misdeeds with handling classified
20:48
materials. Well, you know, Carrie in Poles, now fifty of the
20:52
usum populace sees this as a politically motivated indictment. In other words, the
21:03
Biden administration using the mechanisms of government against a political opponent. So that's that's
21:08
another useful data point. That means more than half the population ceased through this
21:14
in Latin way, Yeah, that's directly giving rise to RFK Junior. And
21:19
yeah, you know his popularity. He's viewed more favorably than either Trump or
21:25
Biden. Do santis, but he's more popular than them. Did you see
21:30
the Joe Rogan interviewers just now I've caught bits and pieces of him if you
21:36
have a chance. You know, bucks, they got up to a million
21:40
and a half bucks to get this hotel's gout the debate. Kennedy, Yeah,
21:45
I listened to that whole three and a half hour long thing with Joe
21:48
Rogan and that that's one of the best interviews I've ever heard. And you
21:53
know, you understand RFK Junior after that, because Joe Rogan just basically let
21:59
him talk, you know, so the guy got to lay out his life
22:00
story and the premises for his beliefs um uninterrupted. It was. It was
22:07
brilliant on both sides. Brilliant job by the interviewer and a brilliant job by
22:12
the subject. And uh yeah I would after hearing that interview, I could
22:18
comfortably vote for our FK Junior, even though you know, I think we
22:23
disagree on a lot of um a lot of a broad political um policy issues.
22:30
But you know, the guy is, first of all, incredibly articulate.
22:33
He's got facts and fingers and names and dates at his fingertips. He
22:38
is not a senile old man, and and he's something right, He's I
22:45
mean, he's not a young guy. He's definitely in the generation of the
22:49
senile old man that we're looking at otherwise, but he's not one of them.
22:53
And you know, his take on vaccines and on the the corruption within
23:00
the healthcare establishment, it all makes total sense. And I don't know if
23:06
it's actually true, because I don't have any way to verify what he's saying,
23:08
but it's coherent and it hangs together and it describes the world that we
23:14
live in pretty well right now. So yeah, you know, I think
23:18
maybe the best that we could hope for this time, because Trump is totally
23:22
going to get the Republican nomination if he's not in prison, and even if
23:25
he is in prison, I him there's a decent chance he just Okay,
23:27
he's in prison, he gets elected president, he pardons himself, and he's
23:32
in charge again. But but you know, if Trump were to say,
23:36
all right, elected me, and I will take RFK Junior, and I'll
23:40
turn him loose on the bureaucracy, and he'll reform the healthcare system, and
23:45
hell, we'll put him in charge of foreign policy too. You know,
23:48
we'll just let this guy go in there and clean house. That would be
23:51
an attractive ticket to me. You know, the name Ron de Santis you're
23:55
vice president and RFK you're fixer, and then just go for a And I've
24:00
not really heard either of them going after the other, you know, RFK,
24:06
and really haven't I suspect the you know, RFK talked about Trump in
24:14
that Rogan interview and he was respectful. You know, he didn't say he
24:18
liked Trump or anything, but he he said that he got why Trump was
24:23
popular because Trump is speaking the language of disenfranchised working people, and so he
24:29
gets it, you know, which, which that's half the battle right there.
24:32
If you understand why Trump is popular, um, you have a view
24:37
of the political landscape that most politicians don't have right there. Look, if
24:41
anyone has a right to be a conspiracy theorist, it's a Kennedy. Yeah,
24:45
yeah, really, it's a Kennedy. Matt. I gotta tell you,
24:51
like, people are onto this. I had a guy installing a sink,
24:55
African American guy, really beautiful guy, amazing guy, hard worker and
25:00
good person, and we're talking about it and basically we agreed, they're just
25:04
trying to divide us and make us hate each other because then we don't pay
25:10
attention to the real issue that's really what this whole thing is about. So
25:14
demonization and fear and manipulation, that's the language of the our elites. Our
25:23
governors are governing an unelected governing body. That's that's the language. That's how
25:30
they stay in power. So if you were to get a Trump and an
25:34
RFK together, you know, who knows? Huh, who knows? But
25:40
you know, Kennedy's don't have the longest or the greatest the life expectancy when
25:45
they enter politics. You know, Noah, he's he's been very brave by
25:49
running, well, running on the platform, but he's running on my god,
25:53
you know, And anybody who runs for president on a platform of getting
25:59
the corruption out of the healthcare establishment and shutting down the military empire, their
26:07
life expectancies in the weeks well, you know, he told the story RFK
26:12
did of his I guess his uncle John Kennedy, whom they had a lot
26:18
of advisors in Vietnam and some of them were getting killed, and that John
26:21
Kennedy didn't like seeing US soldiers be killed, and he said, pull him
26:26
out. He gave that order, the pull out of Vietnam. Three weeks
26:30
later he was dead. Yeah, and uh, and again I don't you
26:33
know, I don't know about the details of that timeline or anything, but
26:37
you know, it does make sense because Kennedy was definitely a skeptic of the
26:42
military industrial complex, and he despite everybody advising him to go to war a
26:48
couple of times, he decided not to do it. So it's easy for
26:52
to envision him butting heads with the CIA, and for the CIA deciding screw
26:57
it, we're just going to take him out. You know, that's that
27:00
hangs together very easily as a scenario that could have happened. So how that's
27:06
consistent what everybody involved. He had a bunch of enemies, the MOM,
27:11
the intelligence community, the oil industry because he wanted to get rid of the
27:15
depletion allowance, which basically enables most, if not all, oil companies to
27:22
virtually to further taxes indefinitely. As long as they keep producing more and more
27:26
oil, their depletion allowance goes up and up, and they as they pump,
27:32
they depreciate the wells, and basically, without getting into a full blown
27:37
explanation, this is how they pay limited taxes, certainly the smaller oil companies,
27:44
maybe not the large multinationals. And you know, he had a lot
27:49
of enemies, and you know, just like the movie Casino, you know,
27:56
with the Joe Pesci's character that there's a lot of holes in the desert
28:00
and a lot of problems been solved in those holes. Yeah, don't don't.
28:07
Don't forget l LBJ too, because apparently Kennedy was getting ready to drop
28:11
LBJ from the ticket for the next election, and LBJ was being investigated and
28:17
would have been indicted for corruption if he wasn't immune by being vice president.
28:22
So he had a really good m motive for killing j Okay follow the money
28:27
who became president? Yeah, yeah, he knew, like he always his
28:33
father died young, all of his male relatives died young. If you read
28:37
the Robert Cairo book Rise to Power, he always knew that he was going
28:42
to die young. And as a result the you know, this was his
28:48
only shot to become president. Yeah, maybe he took it. You know.
28:52
You know, just as a general rule, most vice presidents would kill
28:56
the president if they knew they could get away with it. We can't say
29:00
that, right, We're an arst assistant. And to that point, yeah,
29:03
they at Reagan, you know, one hundred seventy days into his term,
29:07
he was shot, and who was going to become president then? Either?
29:14
You know, the former head of the CIA was going to become president?
29:18
Right, Yeah, it wasn't Bush. Bush was the BP under Reagan,
29:22
wasn't Yeah, okay, and he was the former head of the CIA.
29:26
Something. Why would you name a CIA agent as your vice president and
29:33
give him an incentive to kill you if you're the president? You know,
29:34
it just doesn't seem like a It makes sense, but it didn't work,
29:38
man Like they failed. That's the thing. The hit on JFK, assuming
29:42
it was a hit, was really sloppy. There was two sentence, which
29:47
is why all these people are dead and why all all you know they had
29:52
to step in and do the cover up in the war and commission and all
29:56
of that. And who was a who ran the war and commissions? I
30:00
think it was Dollas John Foster Dallas, who JFK had fired as headed the
30:04
CIA. Um, you know, all these little pieces, but let's not
30:10
relive that. But yeah, this is going to be an election like no
30:15
other one here because RFK is going to be a player. And what will
30:22
it take for him to back down? What will they be able to do
30:26
or throw at him? You know, like you think you think they had
30:32
a dossier on Trump even though it was all fake. They got a dossier
30:36
on RFK. But he's smart, he's admitting all of his his sins upfront,
30:44
and well, you know, in today's world, um, it's not
30:48
clear what could be in his dossier that would get him disqualified, right,
30:52
because it's already been done. Like Huey Long, I think it was the
30:56
young ya you can't touch me unless you kept catching me with a dead girl
31:00
or a live boy. And you know it's possible even that wouldn't do it
31:04
these days, And we could get into maybe Huey Long was a political hit
31:11
from from FDR. He was a populist and he was threatening all of this,
31:21
and you know, there were a lot of people that weren't happy with
31:22
the New Deal and the socialist trend at the country was heading in. So
31:30
hue Long really kind of symbolized all that, and he was certainly no choir
31:36
boy Old Hue. I wonder if the aliens have been watching us long enough
31:41
to know the truth about all this stuff, and they could tell us what
31:44
really happened and every single one of these things that would be cool. I
31:48
guarantee it's all in Hillary's emails. Yeah, confidential documents. They're only important
31:56
depending who's holding onto them, right Yeah, Like, well, hey,
32:02
I guess that is it for this week. We covered a lot of territory
32:07
here. Make sure you go over to john site Rabino dot substack dot com.
32:10
Subscribe there, buck us out Financial Survival Network dot com. Get your
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free newsletter, John. We will catch up with you in a couple of
32:19
weeks. See you carry. Thanks for listening to Carrie Lens's Financial Survival Network,
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