Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / AI Risks: The Chorus Of Crashes

Transcript

AI Risks: The Chorus Of Crashes · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Isaac Newton, one of the smartest men who ever lived, lots of fortune, lost a fortune in the stock bubble.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: And the reason why is the reason I'm worried about artificial intelligence or superintelligence, and that was 1720.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: A company called the South Sea Company was the hot stock in England.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody was talking about it.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: Newton bought in.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: He watched it climb and sold in the spring for a big profit, and that was smart.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Then he watched his friends keep getting richer.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: He couldn't stand it.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: He bought back in near the top.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: Then it crashed.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: He lost about twenty thousand pounds.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: A fortune back then.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: The genius who figured out gravity couldn't beat the crowd.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: Now hold on to one word for me, and that's chorus.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: Chorus.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to come back to it.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Now there's a movie called Margin Call near the end.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: The head of a big Wall Street firm sits there late at night and rattles off crash after crash, going back hundreds of years.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: His point is absolutely cold and chilling.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: It always happens.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: So make sure you're the one that gets out first.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: I want to walk that same list with you, but I want it to land somewhere different.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: 1873 Railroads.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: A bank named Jay Cook and Company sold railroad bonds with ads aimed at the farmer, the mechanic, and the laborer.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: On September 18, 1873, the bank closed its doors.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: The New York Stock Exchange shut down for 10 days.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: More than 10,000 businesses failed.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: The railroad still got built.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: The working people's savings didn't make it.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: 1929, the stock market, people were buying stocks with borrowed money, putting a little down and borrowing the rest.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's kind of like buying a house with almost nothing down at the very top of the market.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: The Dow peaked in September 1929.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: By the summer of 1932, it had fallen about 89%.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: The people who borrowed to borrowed to buy at the top lost everything.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: 2000, the Internet.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: When tech companies went public, the insiders usually had to wait about six months before they could sell.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: In that first three months of 2000, 208 of those waiting periods were set to run out.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: NASDAQ peaked on March 10, 2000, then fell 77%.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: The internet won.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of the people who bought at the top did not.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: 2008, housing.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: You know this one.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: I was selling homes in this valley all the way through it, started in 98.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: But in 2008, different story.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: People bought at the top with loans they should have never had been made.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: When it broke, the banks got rescued first.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of family lost their homes.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: And when it was over, big investors bought at four closed homes by the tens of thousands.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: Banks never lost.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: Well, back to that word chorus.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: It's kind of like a song you've heard your whole life.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: Different singer every time, different band, different decade, same chorus.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: Every money gets in cheap.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Early money gets in cheap.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: Late money buys the top, the bust comes.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: The people in the middle pay, and patient money buys the wreckage for pennies.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: And now AI, same setup.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_00: Early money's in, the money is pouring into data centers, retirement accounts, and pension funds are already part of the bet.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: Now I'm not telling you it has to crash.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: AI might keep paying off for years.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm telling you I've heard this chorus before.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: The guy in the movie uses the list to say get out first.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: And I use the same list to say something else.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_00: We've seen this before.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: This means we know exactly where the people get hurt.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_00: So for once, we can be standing there first with a plan, and that's the transition moonshot.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: Newton couldn't beat the crowd.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: Neither can we, but we can stop the crowd from getting run over.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: Tell me in the comments which one of these did you or your family live through?
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: 2000, 2008?
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: I'm building this plan right here on the show, one piece at a time.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: Come build with me.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with Honor.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: Over and out.