Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 331 - 8/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 331 - 8/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 331 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I am your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Wednesday. It's officially hump day.
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That means we are halfway through our work week and also
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it means we're just 24 hours away from some NFL preseason
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action. Three games, obviously playing
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tomorrow, Colts, Baltimore, Cincy, Philly and Vegas and
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Seattle. And we've seen some massive line
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moves on all three games. Kind of been hitting on this,
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you know, the beginning of each pod throughout the week.
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And I was actually able to dig up something because I was
1:01
wondering to myself, man, these lines have moved so much.
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Is it still valuable to take the team's getting line movement now
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I'm a data-driven better. You guys know that by now.
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I want to be with the line moves tells me that hey, I'm with the
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smart money causing the shift in the market, but also I don't
1:17
want to chase steam. Now Steam is very important.
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Steam is an overload of smart money across the marketplace,
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forcing the entire market to move.
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It typically happens when wise guys, syndicates who are groups
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of wise guys together pooling their resources, just really get
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down super hard on a specific side and then 'cause the whole
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market to shift. Now Steam isn't just one book
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moving, it's the entire marketplace.
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And I've been talking to you guys about odds logic.
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Odds logic is a great opportunity or great kind of,
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you know, situation where you can identify steam because as
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soon as the lines change or move, you'll, they'll get lit up
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in red. And the whole point is that you
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don't want to chase the steam and be too late to the party.
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You want to get the steam at the same triggering number.
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So if the entire market is, you know -1 and then we start to see
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it creep up -1 1/2 - 2, you want to get a book that still hasn't
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moved off the -1 If you're getting the triggering number
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and you're with the steam, that's a great sign because
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you're getting the same number. The pros like the wise guys
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like. But if you're late to the party,
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lot of times you can lose a bet because you're getting the worst
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of the number. So for example, the three games
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for tomorrow, we opened Baltimore and Indianapolis.
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Basically a pick em or even Baltimore may be favored by a
2:28
point. It's all the way up now to Colts
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-6 Philly. In Cincinnati, we open Philly, a
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short 2 point favorite. Now it's -6 Cincinnati.
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And then Vegas in Seattle open Seattle laying a point and a
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half. Now it's all the way up to -4
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1/2 Looks like it may even go to five with Vegas.
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So it's very clear that the Colts, the Bengals, and the
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Raiders are all getting big movement in their favor.
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But I ask you this, what number did the sharps like the Colts
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at? You know, it was probably -1 -,
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2 - 3. Do they still like a -, 6?
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I'm not sure. Probably not since he opened
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again, getting a point or two. Now they're laying 6.
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Did pros want to lay the six? No, they got a much earlier
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Vegas in Seattle. Seattle open laying -1 1/2.
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Did pros like Vegas getting a point and 1/2?
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Or maybe laying one or two maybe or probably most likely.
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But do they like them laying 4 1/2 or even 5?
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Maybe not. So my whole point being is I
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don't want to go with the steam when we're chasing it.
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And I actually went into my my historical database and I drew
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this up. I went to pre season games.
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And 1 angle that we've seen historically is that actually
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dogs do better in the pre season than favorites.
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This is a pretty big sample size if you look all the way back,
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and this is huge all the way back since around 2005 S, nearly
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a 20 year sample of preseason games.
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Dogs are 625 and 562 atsa 52.7% cover rate.
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That's actually good for plus 34 units, a 3% ROI.
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So it goes to show you and again, what's the magic number
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to overcome -110 juice. It's 52.38, so 52.7%.
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You could round it up to 53. That's actually pretty good
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taking the dogs. But here's where it gets even
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better. When I go to my database and I
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look at line movement in specifically, and I look at the
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spread change open to current. What I was looking at is let's
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say you're a dog and the line is moved at least two points
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against you. So basically you're getting more
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points off the opener then then or you're getting more points
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now then you got off the opener. Well, dogs in that spot improved
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to 53.1% with a 4% ROI. Let's make it even bigger.
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If we go to a team getting a dog getting five points or more
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again, cuz he's all match, they improved to or sorry, five
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points or more off the opener. They're now 30 and 2159 percent,
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14% ROI. And that would match with all
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four of those are all three of those dogs, I should say.
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So I'm thinking maybe we take some of these dogs for tomorrow.
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The Lions have moved so much and crazy things happen in the
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second-half of these games. And the other angle here is all
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these totals are pretty low, 36 and half 37 and half 37.
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So it's not like they're expecting a ton of points.
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So it's kind of hard to cover a big number like that when you're
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looking at a lower scoring game. So I just wanted to mention that
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I'm going to do a little bit more digging into these games
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here. But dogs have done well in the
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preseason. These numbers have moved a ton
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and what I would call inflated line dogs getting five points or
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more, they're covering nearly 60% of the time historically.
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And if you look at actually the past system results, they are
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123-4567 and O the last 7. And you actually had last year
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there were let's see, 12345 yeah, basically 7 situations
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that all came through. So just a little little sports
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betting nugget there. But again, big movement.
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I'm thinking of maybe buying low and let's let's think if we can
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get greedy, Can we get Baltimore plus 6 1/2?
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Can we get Philly plus 6 1/2? Can we get Seattle +5?
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Again? That's really what I'm thinking
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as of now. So with that being said, I want
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to know kind of turn the page to today.
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We do have a three pack of MLB sweats for you.
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Big jam packed Wednesday edition, 15 games overall and
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three caught my eye with some big steam.
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And we're going to see if we can get this pot out a little bit
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early because all three of the games that I'm on are a 12:35 PM
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Eastern Time game and two 1:10 PM Eastern Time games.
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So let's see if we can get this out and let you guys listen to
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the breakdowns and decide if you want a tail fade pick and choose
6:38
whatever you want to do. Of course, we're going to try to
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go 2 and 1 eek out a winning day, which is always our goal.
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Now, looking back toward last night, kind of an annoying 1 and
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2 -, 1.57 unit night. Didn't have a big winner with
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the Blue Jays. Remember that was a massive
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steam move in their favor. Actually got down early and came
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back and rolled, which was nice. And actually it kind of looked
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like a blowout, but it was kind of closer than that.
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What do they win like 10 to 4? The losers were the Cubs lost 5
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to one. That was a one, one to one game.
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I think in the 7th inning they bring in Andrew Kittridge, guy
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with a big beard. He's actually been pretty good
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historically. He gets completely lit up and
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implodes and gives up five runs or four runs, whatever it was.
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And then the Tigers let us down early.
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I knew we were kind of on the bad side of that because right
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as the game was, or I was looking up the lineups, I saw
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Glaber Torres was scratched, which was never a good thing.
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And then Chris Paddock also got lit up.
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So Tigers, Cubs letting us down. At least we got the Blue Jays.
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We're going to see if we can start a new winning streak here
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for today. So that being said, let's dive
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right in. Three plays again, trying to go
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2 and 1, eke out a winning day. First one on the board for me.
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Early match up. As I mentioned, Baltimore
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Orioles at the Philadelphia Phillies.
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Let's set the stage. Talk line movement, talk splits
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and systems. I'll give you my play for this
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one. So going into it, going into it,
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we got the Phillies 65 and 48 on the year.
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They won the first two games of this interleague series,
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dominating the opener 13 to 3, coming through as a -, 200 home
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favorite. Then they won again yesterday, 5
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nothing as a -145 home favorite. So in this early afternoon
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series finale, the O's who are 51 and 63, they're going to go
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with the lefty Trevor Rogers four and two 1.44 ERA.
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Meanwhile, the Phils are going to go with the fellow lefty
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Ranger Suarez, 8 and four, 2.68 ERA.
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Now, what have we seen across the opener here?
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Well, this game opened Philly around a -, 150 home favorite,
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Baltimore A + 130 row dog. And pros aren't thinking, you
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know, the Orioles, hey, they've lost first two.
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They'll avoid the sweep. No, they're getting down hard on
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Philly to complete this sweep. We've seen Philly creep up -150
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up to around -180 I jumped on Philly at -175 at Bet MGM.
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Again, shop around. Some books are -180 even
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Caesar's I think is -190 So always have multiple outs and
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get that best price. But pretty clear we got one way
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movement in favor of Philly at circa 84% of money line bets.
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99% of money line dollars are coming in on the fills.
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So very obvious one way sharp bet split out in Vegas in favor
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of the fills. Then I have 6 system matches lit
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up on Philadelphia here. Just a couple of them favorites
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off a win with a winning record, getting at least $0.05 of line
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movement against a team who made the playoffs the previous year.
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That system is 135 and 6269% with a 7% ROI this year.
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Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season
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playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous
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season. Kind of.
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And again, Baltimore's a little different because they had a
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great year last year and they've fallen off this year.
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But kind of goes to show you that kind of better team at home
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who's expected to win kind of the cream rises to the top.
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Those teams have gone 105 and 6263% with a 6% ROI.
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Phillies by the way, 37 and 13, a 74% win rate, 14% ROI as a
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home favorite with a line move in their direction that actually
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makes them the second best team in baseball as a home favorite
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with a line move. We do have Philly interleague
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favorite, lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the
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better team. We also have Philly as a
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correlative betting value favorite.
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This is a very low total of 7 1/2 and this line has crept up
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further toward Philly. So fewer amount of expected run
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scored, more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team.
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I'm going to bank on the Phills bats hopefully getting to
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Rodgers. They picked him up in a trade
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last year and he was terrible. He's been better this year.
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But Phillies are actually hitting on the season 255.
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They've scored 534 runs. Orioles are only hitting 242
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with 492 run scored. Also, two lefties on the bump.
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Philly's been better against lefties.
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They're hitting 2:50. That's ninth best in baseball.
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Baltimore's hitting 2/27. That ranks 23rd.
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Lastly, just some home Rd. splits.
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Philly's been good at home 37 and 20.
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Orioles only 24 and 36 on the road.
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So it's an early game, but we got a lot of system matches.
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Line keep steaming toward the Phills.
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I'm going to back Ranger Suarez and see if the Phills can
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hopefully complete this sweep. I got Philadelphia -175 at bet
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MGM again, shop around. Most books -180 at this point.
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Next one for you. 1:10 PM Eastern Time.
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First pitch, Let's get some revenge in Detroit.
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One of my favorite movies. Detroit Rock City, Old movie if
11:27
you've never seen it. If you're a KISS fan or never
11:31
looking for a movie to watch. One of my faves anyway.
11:34
First pitch 1:10 PM Eastern Time Twins at Tigers.
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This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
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The Tigers who are 66 and 49, they won the opener six to
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three. Remember we played them that
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night came through as a -185 home favorite.
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Then unfortunately the Twins were 53 and 60.
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Came back with a six to three win yesterday cashing as a + 120
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Rd. dog in this afternoon series finale.
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Twins are going to go with the ready Pearson Ole O and two 7.5
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O ERA tigers going with the ready Jack Flaherty 6 and ten
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4.36 ERA and Pearson Ole just kind of funny.
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My my favorite comedian is Nate Bargatzi.
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If you've never seen this guy, he is freaking hilarious, but
12:16
he's got this. He has this great skit
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basically, I think it was one of his recent Netflix specials
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where he's like they know he's from the South and he makes fun
12:24
of himself. He's like they never taught us
12:26
like how to pronounce words and and I I look at instead of oil
12:29
OIL, he calls it Motorol and it's just it's a hilarious skip,
12:33
but it always when I see Pearson OL it reminds me of the Nate
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Bargatze Motorol. Anyway, side note, but we did
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open this game. Detroit as low as a -, 130 home
12:44
favorite. The twins, a + 110 row dog.
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And at the time we didn't know who the twin starter would be.
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It was Mr. TBD, Mr. Unannounced. Once it was announced that OL
12:54
would start and he's only going on three days rest.
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That was when we saw a huge adjustment toward the tigers
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-130 up to -170 and now we've seen the tigers get now as high
13:04
as -200 You can still get -190 a bet MGM.
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I got tigers -185 a little bit earlier today.
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If you look at the splits at DraftKings, Tigers, 85% of money
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line bets, 95% of money line dollars.
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At Circa, 79% of money line bets, 99% of money line dollars.
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So both DraftKings and Circa with some pretty good low bets,
13:28
higher dollar splits in favor of Detroit along with that huge
13:31
move in their favor. If we isolate the Tigers in the
13:34
spot, they're 381967 percent, 7 percent, 7% ROI as a home
13:40
favorite with a line move in their direction.
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That's the 4th best in baseball. And Detroit is also 18 and 675
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percent, 15% ROI as a home favorite against a sub 500 team.
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So they've cleaned up as a home favorite when the markets moving
13:55
in their direction and they've cleaned up as a home favorite
13:57
against bad teams, which hopefully that continues here
14:00
today. Tigers have the better offense.
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Let's let's light up Mr. Motorol hitting two 5000 and 47 home
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runs, 552 runs scored. Twins, meanwhile, hitting two
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41131 homers, 471 runs scored. Jack Flaherty's numbers on the
14:16
year don't look amazing. Six and ten 4.36 ER 8, But he's
14:21
pitched really well recently. Hopefully that's an omen for
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today. He's only given up 1 earned run
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in his last two starts spanning 12 innings, and he's three and
14:30
one with a 2.76 ERA in day games.
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He's done very well in day games.
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Meanwhile, Mr. Ole is only making his third career
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appearance and he's giving up five runs in six innings in his
14:40
first 22 appearances. And I was also reading because
14:44
he's on short rest he may not go far in this game.
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So it could be even a bullpen game and Minnesota traded away a
14:49
lot of their bullpen guys. Lastly, just look at home Rd.
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Twins 23 and 26 on the road, Tigers 37 and 22 at home.
14:58
One of the better home teams in baseball.
15:00
So we've had nothing but movement toward Detroit.
15:03
Again, if you wanted to sign up and get those all systems go
15:06
best bets from the Juicer Lab, you would have gotten some
15:09
better prices here. Tigers -185 that's what I'm
15:12
rocking. But again, it looks like -190
15:15
still available at Bet MGM, but shop around cuz some books are
15:18
closer to -200 last bet of the day.
15:22
Again, we got a lot of day sweats today.
15:24
Let's go to New York, the Big Apple, where the New York Mets
15:27
are hosting the Cleveland Guardians at 1:10 PM Eastern
15:29
Time. Going into it, we got the guards
15:32
58 and 55. They won the first two games of
15:35
this three-game set. They won the opener 7 to 6 and
15:37
extras as a + 165 Rd. dog. And then one again yesterday,
15:41
3:00 to 2:00 as a + 135 Rd. dog. So pitching matchup for this
15:46
interleague series finale, the guards are going with the ready
15:49
Gavin Williams. He's six and four with a 3.33 ER
15:53
a Meanwhile, the Mets, who are 63 and 51, they're going to go
15:56
with the lefty David Peterson. He's seven and four with a 2.83
16:00
ER a. So we seen across the market
16:03
here. Well, this game opened Mets
16:05
around a -, 165 home favorite, Cleveland around a + 150 row dog
16:11
and sharps are really banking on the Mets to avoid the sweep
16:13
because we've seen this line go further toward New York.
16:16
I got a -, 170, but they've been bet up -165 now up to around
16:20
-180 looks like Caesars is your best price if you want to play
16:23
the Mets with me. They're -178 but most other
16:27
books are -180 even -185 S good steam in favor of New York.
16:33
At DraftKings, the Mets 74% of bets, 81% of dollars.
16:37
At Circa, this one really jumped out to me. 53% of money line
16:41
bets, 97% of money line dollars. So big money out in Vegas laying
16:46
with the Mets to get back on track. 1 system that jumped out
16:50
to me. Home favorites.
16:51
This was the one that I think also matched with who was it
16:55
with Phillies earlier today, But that would be your home
16:58
favorites who made the playoffs the previous year, playing
17:00
opponent who also made the playoffs the previous year.
17:03
One O 5 and 6263 percent, 6% ROI.
17:08
The Mets are also 34 and 16, a 68% win rate, 8% ROI as a home
17:13
favorite. That makes them the 5th best
17:16
home favorite in baseball. New York does have that
17:18
correlative betting value. Total in this game is very low,
17:21
7 1/2 and the line keeps going toward the favorite.
17:24
So if your amount of expected run scored more likely to come
17:26
from quote UN quote, that better team interleague favorite value
17:30
as well. That lack of familiarity
17:32
benefiting the better team. And then also the Mets,
17:34
hopefully their bats show up today and get to Williams.
17:36
They're hitting 241 on the year, 139 homers, 500 run scored.
17:42
Guardians, meanwhile, hitting two 29118 homers, 446 runs
17:46
scored. Peterson has been really good at
17:49
home 5 and O with an ERA of just two, and he's only given up 1
17:52
earned run or less in four of his last five starts.
17:56
Meanwhile, Williams been good at home, 2.77 ERA, but on the road
18:00
4 point O3. So he's on the road here today.
18:03
And meanwhile, the Guardians going up against Peterson, a
18:06
lefty, they're only hitting 227 against S paws this year.
18:09
That's 22nd baseball. And by the way, the Mets are 38
18:13
and 20 at home, 66% win rate, second best home team in all of
18:17
baseball. So we've got some big movement
18:20
toward the Mets. Really good bet splits, good
18:22
system matches. Peterson's been great at home.
18:24
I'm going to bank on the Mets, hopefully to avoid the sweep and
18:27
get a win today. Again, I got New York -170 a
18:31
little bit earlier today. Looks like your best number is
18:34
-178 right now at Caesars. So Philly, Detroit and the New
18:39
York Mets see if we can get 2 out of 3 eke out a winning day.
18:43
So that about does it for episode 331 of the All Systems
18:47
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
18:49
This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I
18:52
start first as always, by saying thank you.
18:55
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
18:57
busy lives, out of the dog days of summer.
18:59
I know you got a lot going on, but you guys keep tuning in,
19:02
keep grinding baseball with me, which again, it's sexy and fun
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when football's back. But the true grinders who grind
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baseball. I appreciate you guys.
19:10
There's ups and downs, but I think there's something to be
19:12
said for sticking and grinding a very long, long sport with
19:17
again, a lot of ups and downs along the way, but more ups and
19:20
downs I would say from our data-driven perspective.
19:24
But anyway, if you enjoy the pod, you want to let me know you
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appreciate the insights. Would you consider giving this
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If you would like to leave a nice little note or review or
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recommend the pod to a friend or click the follow button, I would
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also very much appreciate that. Next, if you enjoy the style of
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betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting,
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focusing on not what we think or want or biases are telling us
19:51
what we expect to happen, but no leaving our bias at the door,
19:55
going into every day with an open mind.
19:57
If you ask me who I like today, hey, let me look at the lines
20:00
and the splits and the systems, then I'll tell you who I like.
20:03
But I think that's one thing that is super important, not
20:06
going into a day saying you're going to do something.
20:08
And, and injecting your bias, but letting the market speak to
20:10
you, tell you where the the respected money's AT and again,
20:14
where the historically profitable system matches are
20:16
AT. But if this style of betting has
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kind of caught your eye, it's provided A blueprint.
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It's kind of allowed you to again kind of kind of see
20:24
through the forest amongst the trees.
20:26
And you want to maybe learn more about data-driven betting.
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Well, guess what? I wrote a book, actually written
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they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
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online, how to shop for the best price, how to use a live odds
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21:40
Playbook to the sports book. I'll sign them for you.
21:42
I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games
21:45
together. Hopefully get some baseball
21:47
winners next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
21:50
juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
21:52
apps, Rhythm fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions
21:56
for game bets and player props. They got baseball live right
21:59
now, they have their new power trends with WNBA and then pretty
22:03
soon we'll have an announcement because we got something planned
22:05
for rhythm this football season. So stay tuned for that.
22:08
But you'll also get those those football and basketball splits
22:12
or system matches, I should say models once those sports return
22:16
and then also you got to download juice reel.
22:18
This pot is free. It cost you nothing, So I'm
22:21
going to pass the hat. If you enjoy the insights,
22:23
whether your tail fade, pick and choose or just you know, you
22:26
kind of like to hear where where the market's moving and you
22:29
enjoy the breakdowns, because I really don't think there's a pod
22:31
like this around. I know there's a lot of sports
22:33
betting content, but it's a lot of opinion hot takes.
22:36
I always think when someone's giving me a breakdown of a game,
22:38
like are you at least going to mention what the line opened at
22:41
and where it is now? Like some of the most basic
22:43
things like just get completely ignored and they're important.
22:46
But if you enjoy these insights and again, this pod is free.
22:50
If you would like to tip your podcast host, I would love for
22:53
you guys to sign up for $4.99 a week to get the all systems go
22:58
best bet picks on the Juice Reel app.
23:01
You can click that link I put out late afternoon each day.
23:03
You can also just download juice reel, click buy sell bottom
23:06
right corner search by and you can look up ASG under score
23:11
podcast and again, that's 5 bucks a week.
23:13
So hopefully you think the insights are worth $0.99 a day.
23:16
Basically, you also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the
23:19
sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for
23:22
the best line futures, sync up your books, get a running report
23:25
card of your action. It's all available when you
23:27
download Juice Reel. So download Juice Reel and
23:29
download rhythm. It'll be off and running making
23:32
data-driven sharp plays. Next, do you have a live odds
23:36
page? Well, if you don't, you need one
23:38
super important track line movement, identify steam shop
23:42
for the best price. Really the odds page is what
23:45
lets you track the market and watch as things are moving and
23:48
changing. So it really can provide a ton
23:50
of great insights. And really what I love too is is
23:53
when I'm watching a game, I have my odds logic live odds page up
23:57
and I'll just track the live line, you know, see if there's
24:00
an opportunity to get down in game or track and see what my
24:03
preflop bet, how that looks right now.
24:05
So again, there's a lot of live odds pages out there, but you
24:08
need to give Odds Logic a shot. It's the best one around at the
24:12
cheapest rate. If you'd like to test it out,
24:15
there's a 7 day free trial and you can get 50% off your first
24:18
month of service by going to odds oddslogic.com/josh 123.
24:25
So that about does it for episode 331.
24:28
Early pod here with some day sweats in MLB.
24:30
See if we can get some winners. But as always, guys, I'm gonna
24:33
leave you with two final thoughts, as we do at the end of
24:35
every pod. Whether I see you at the Borgata
24:38
in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
24:41
Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, at the
24:44
Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield or
24:48
the Nash and Nashville, New Hampshire.
24:50
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
24:52
down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
24:54
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
24:57
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
24:58
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
25:01
When you catch a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
25:04
you're going to walk up to me and you're going to show me.
25:06
I know it was a big price, but Blue Jays came through.
25:09
Whatever you do. Cubbies, Tigers.
25:11
Come on, man, one of those two can't win that.
25:14
That's that's frustrating. But anyway, first one's on me,
25:16
next one's on you. We'll post about the book and
25:19
sweat some sharp data-driven place together as always, guys,
25:22
after a one and two night, 2 and one night, 3 and O night O and
25:26
three night, whether we're hot, whether we're cold, whether
25:28
we're grinding, whatever the case may be, we just got to stay
25:32
even keeled. Stick to the model, stick to the
25:34
blueprint discipline, bankroll management and just stick to
25:37
that model, which as you know by now, if you don't, that's OK
25:40
too. Hello to all the new listeners.
25:43
That model goes something like this against the public, with
25:45
the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that
25:49
closing line value. If we can do that, then I'm
25:52
confident we're going to be successful sports bettors.
25:54
So have a fantastic one day Wednesday, everybody see if we
25:57
can get some winners and someday sweats.
25:59
And then tomorrow we got baseball and then we also have
26:02
some NFL pre season. So stay tuned.
26:05
Might be taking some inflated dogs tomorrow.
26:07
We shall see, but good luck everyone.
26:10
I'll see you back tomorrow for episode 332 of the All Systems
26:14
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
26:17
Good luck everybody and have a great Wednesday.